policy that is being -- that is beingñis7■ discussedjf among th administration. but sheçó and both powell have said regulators could come to the rescuee1 to backstop deposi, people should feel confident about their deposits, but nothing to change that in theñi meantime. >> thank you. good to see you. markets turning negatively, although the nasdaq is hanging ondo a gainu■ ofe1 back up to

that leads us to our talk of the tape. asnb■ investorsxdxd struggle to banking crisis, are yellen andk powell sending mixed messages to the market?ñi with us, jayxdt( terranovulz an alicia lavigne, the nyc mellon alicia lavigne, the nyc mellon head of investment segy and equity advisory solution. we have toa5■ñ d.c. to wall street divide here a little bit, i think. and reallyb.■ just talk about t whole collective of what powell did yesterday, w95z■ powell sai 5■ treasury and congress are dealing with with regard to banking stability and

thene1 the market's attempt to handicap just what drag thatt( will have on the economy and earnings, joe. what do you read into today'se1 action with regard to all of that? >> the market seems to be following the direction of the russell because of financials. we had m■ nice bouncei] thisht■ morning. i still think what i'm most iqoarish on is time. not so much price. 't think peopleñr fully s cf1 o understand. this is a correction, the magnitude of which we have note seen since the great financialj crisis. and we're continuing to consolidate in this range between 3800 and 4200. ñ closesçóçó since the midterm!u■ election below 3. i think as it relates to .rvpáu)y secretary yellen,i] i think the market expects or wants her to do something that reality she can't do. she legally can't do because of the requirement congressxd woul= have to raise theeobáu on fdic. but i think treasury --lp the

treasury secretary yellen is trying to communicate she doesn't think she needs to do the market is sayinglp somethin completely different. the market always ultimately -- fá right throughout this process. but lastly, let's remember something.lp two-year treasury, it's down 14á basis points since ten days ago. >> new year low. >> that's helping and offering some relief for a lot of the long-term assets thatwm+■ areq that were so stressed ten days ago. >> that is ñitrue,fáp,■ althoug it also means is the market has quickly gone to pricing in a rate cuts later in the year. fed says that's not going to happen. the market think it'sñr going t happen. it's going to press that bet. it gets to the point which is, we're nowq closer to when the fed, perhaps, is done tightening than wer>■ó thought wetyq)e gs be a couple of month+■v ago, bu

at what cost in terms of what i >> and the question is, of course, why will the fed be closer to the end than to the beginning? together? of course, the answer is, well, that must mean there's a slowdown c oejt ini] the realq economy drivenq by the contraction of credit between small and mediumé@■ sized banks whic]u they have to dou■ in ord to rightt( size their business models as of today. the stock market is really interesting because it is hanging in there to theqr low. really looking through what might happen in the real é econy to where the fed's e'9 take. bond markets to say, if there's cuts by th%■p end of the year, we're going to stabilize and, therefore, the market will be okay. the question is, is thisçó the trade after the trade or do we have to live through something worse in between? right now the stock market's telling you, it's going to be all right.

>> there's a path to it being all right. the formula seems to be,ñ every day, that means the regiona,!sp'k stock is downt( 3 every dó9 that can only go on soñr long. it's very stretched, very extreme.lpi] these parabolic moves don't last for long. there's an end to them.e1 they tend to right themselves. when we still have treasuryi] secretary testifying on this, it's in the news, in front of minds and there's rushfá to tho stocks that are the safety trade, which have historically worked. the question is, is that really where we're going here?v >> yeah, joe.çó i think the marketñi s[%( the disinflationary effect. if there was anything i was disappointed in yesterday, it was chairman powell did not reallyw3 acknowledge properly t disinflationary effect. it means ultimately that when he used the word pain, he was

probably correct in using that wordçó because thatxd really ist is ahead for consumers. you look at commodity é@■prices the significant decline you'reé seeing there. that's signaling trex ñr disinflationary effect.w[4r(t&h% you see the flight to gold. example, but au■ lot of these ma caps are perceived to be as not in need of capital in an environment where we know three environment where we know three to sixth$sjáh#rom now, w&÷ you get your hands on capital right now, don't rate is. get yourd and make sure you have theé@■ liquidity. >> is really does come down to the case, and we hear it 7nstantly every day from so many people that havefá looked the risk/rewq#ñ and the case for sticking with quality in equities, maybe quality in fixed income, is very strong. it's veryfáq lpintuitive. and it just has this nagging effect of saying, if everyonefá thinks you should be paying for quality, is it the right thing to do or is it just all the t( yo?

>> credit trades are scary trades. right now it'siçt(tech.lp it's not the safety trade. the safe-ip"e would be health 9ñ st ut sold off so much. st this year in relation to nasdaq and in relation to tech. so, actually, we think that's where investors should be going to ride out some of the volatility. we do think the chances of recession have increased this year, hold out from 2024 going into 2023. first wefá had that shock and inflation and the fedlp coming hawkish two weeks ago, andxd th bankingt( issue.fá you put those twoçóxd things together, there has to be a slowh+n in order to get inflation close to 2% toq 3% here. >> if there is a safety trade where there's participation from investors and institu>i9m■ in the market, yes, i agree with oñ ■ discretionary, technology. let's remember something>éi] ca balances, if you look right noy at a lot

community, they're at historicaá highs. ar cash right çónow. that might be the real defensive position and it makes you wonder,ñi has the market not reached thexd capitulation mome because so many people are already sitting in cash. how many other punches does the market need before it actually ■ down. it's wobbled,ñi rightfully so, t itjf hasn't again down t(yet. >> you see massivew3 inflows to money marketq and other cash proxies. it's hard to pull that away from people just being afraid of banks and putting it there. i agree with you, people have "át last 12 months. we'll see if that's enough as a buffer. let's bringçó in cnbcfj$(jr!uto greg branch for his view.çó and, greg, bringlp usw3 up to ña little bit. consistent in higher rates for longer. you thought maybe the fed wasi] going to have toi] getçó well a what market expectations were towards 6%, perhaps.

where does yesterday's events and comments by powell leave you with that? >> e1so, the events have actual done and will continue to do some of the fed's work fori] th. so, ii] obviously have to reconsider what my target for terminal rate wasçó at 6% becau the fed's not doing it alonee1 anymore. we know what happened in the financial system is that credit will áea harder. that will slow the economic growth.lp slowed economiclp growth on 5a1=e5q:áájt((sv rise. with all that, underwriting standards going çóhigher, more caution from employers and banks, again, that's going to dd some of the fed's work for it. i think when we look out, there's still things i'm concerned about, even though i'm not concerned aboutt( the marke not discounting a terminal rate that's factual.xdñi the summer and winter,ço i'm not going to be a hypocrite here

listening to the fed. eát'c■ out that we'll see some reflation inok that ba end. now i'm concerned about things the market is notçó discounting. when we look asá consensus 1wtá] driq don't know what the path w is to get fromlp negative osmh■ justfá passed to 10% earnings growth in the fourth quarter this year. i'm having a hard time trying t( justify that. i think what the market is probably missing is the q%=9jez earnings and maybexd somexd margin contractin terms of profits.fá so, i think there's still things that the market isxd notlpñr discounting that prevent me from going really bullish herez#-■ a >> well, i understand that, you downside to earnings estimm■ in the latter part of thise1 yei although talkingqt year-over-year percent change, that's going up easier thanr

first/w quarterñi was. the consensus numbers, where are we on 12 month forward earnings eight months xdago, like at 240 250e1 and now we're down 220 ar and the market is chopped sideways. do you see any particular area at risk in that processxd where you think the economy's going to kind of drag earnings estimates lower? >> i think we'll see a reversal of what we've seen the last few months. what we've seen in 2023 so far. my colleagues noted, the things that worked in 2022 largely traded down the first couple of monthst( of this year. as i think that the market, at stop or pivot and that we would have just aq general path that lifted on both in the wake of the fed being done or pivoting or what have you. i think what will happen going forward is we'll see that reverse. what worked inñd2022 will work again. positioning,fá the problem is n

into short-term fixed income where you're being paidq to wai. being paid 3% or 4% yield with no market risk, that's a defensive position. we're notr expoure in sectors in the stock market. but i do think that that's where the equityr thosejf sectors that will deliv for us consistent earnings growth that we can count on no matter what the macro environment. as we've said, that's r health care, that's some select and maybe even some financials as we get down close to one time price to book. >> yeah, that isñi pretty much where the regional banks are, i suppose, if you can believe the book. i guess that allr shaken out. that's an interestingr u+hr# that starts to feel a little more like there's ma financials. you know, it's worth keeping in mind that if you look at what the fed committee's projections were for the economy, for rates, for inflation, they're

essentially saying that we're going to be in negative growth at some point pretty soonq in te next few quarters, right? they're saying, 0.4% gdp for the the first quarter estimates, probably 2% plus, so the math gets you thereñi along the lpli. we're still at 4%, 5% core at best. maybe trending down to xd3%. what i'm saying is, we have a 3% to 4% nominale1 gdp story under way if,çó infact, it goes the wy they'reñi projecting. ■ something that the stock market can live withe1 for a plunging into negative nominal territory? >> so, that's a great summary oá what the fed said.xd not only are they expecting negative growth for the rest of the year, but if you move unemployment from the low 3.4% to the high of 4.6%, you just said a recession is coming. i]know, when inflation moves up half a percent, thatt(

tends toe1 coincide with recession. if nominal growth in the real economy is still 3% or 4%, you gel■áxd earnings growth to 6%. that is enough for the market ti stabilize here with, i suspect, with our highñi coreçó inflatio still hanging in there at the 3800 line. you won't go negative growth on earnings. maybe you doxd in one orçó two quarters but you may go at the for the market to stabilize. >> yeah, it's sort of a good what thexd market might there. i jum4÷ want to point out, we a( treasury secretary yellen yellen says strong actions taken toxd ensure deposits are safe. theñi administration is prepare forçó additional deposit action quote, if warranted. so, again, this getsfá tookçó st what jayxd powell was saying yesterday, too, which is, your deposits are safe because if

there is another emergency, we will respond to, right?lp not that there's going to be some broad new policy or, you know, or t(backstop.ñi that we're going to go out with proactively. >> again, it's not explicit in be explicit in the message. similar toú-ueñ chairman powell tried to communicate yesterday. tried to communicate yesterday. i t p5rpá t secretaryxd is speaking towards today is that they have a degrei of comfort that they have this ring fence andxd thisxdç(rs not. in fact, is correct. certainly the behavior of the marjtá in the last severalñi da is a little bit suspicious of that.ñrxd @r(t&háhp &hc% rightfully so. they're suspicious of that and also, i imagine, greg, because nobody knows exactly what the impact is going to be of the behavior of banks from here, but we can guess that it's goingq t be calling in okrisks, showing

more liquidity and being morakxi direction it falls in, if nothing else. >> that's exactly çóright. i might slightly disagree with joe. i don't actually think the market got this xdright. i thinkxd whaauz had wasxd cred risk we treated and the market has treated as systematic. i don'tçó think it's systematic. i think the market was trying to read tea leaves. of course when the fed ñropens, people will pledge and take down those loans just for safety purposes. it doesn't meançó there's any [b those banks that took those ñyoo loans, but it wasxd available t them. and they should. it's a measure ofxd safety.xd what worries meñi more in■i terr the behavior, mike,xd and you talked about it,ñi is i don't s how, and i'd love to hear secretary yellen explain to us how thejf facility can loan out $1(p÷e1 billion of cash. the fdic can take down $40 billion ofq cash and we haven't hastened the ex day into may or

june. i would love to see the math 5ao because i don't see how that works. >> well, it's not really coming out of the treasury operating budget, l(ñight? isn't thatçót( the answer? they're borrowing from the fhlbi there is añr s!ility that'ró dog collateralized lending. didn't they play games with the exchange stabilization -- in other words, theymq+ñ pulling from places that i don't know is the same budget. for everything, mike, at the point of which you're already using extreme measures, cash is cash, if you can havexnaccessi] it. >> yeah. well, we will -- this yellen hearing is supposed to be about the budget, so maybe we'll even get clarity on that andcen the date comes in terms of the debt ceiling çódeadline.ok thanks to you all. appreciate it. joe, alicia and greg. let's get to our twitter question of the day. wexdxd want to know, will the nq continue toe lead as it has been? head to @cnbc to vote.

short seller çóñiñrhindenbe the company'sñr chief legal officer responds in a cnbc exclusive next. we're liveok fr stock exchange. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. inner voice: (kombucha brewer): when i started my new kombucha business... ... i thought there would be a lot more kombucha... ...and a lot less business. inner voice (graphic designer): as a new small business owner... ...i've learned that trying to be the “cool” boss... ...is a lot harder when you're actually the “stressed” boss. inner voice (furniture maker): i know everything about my new furniture business. well, everything except... ...the whole “business” part.

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the eagle has landed. that's one small step for man... hey, what's up? uh... houston... we have a situation. how did you get here? you're characters in our video game! video game? yeah, it's what we do with xfinity 10g. it's like, you know, the best network imaginable. what the heck is that? those are the bad guys. are they friendly? the 10g network, only from xfinity. one giant leap for mankind. welcome back. the back of ajf keyñiñr warning the s.e.c.

kristina partsinevelos is here with more on qthat. >> i]hi, mike. the s.e.c. issued aó[■ wells noe which means they may seek legal action overjf securities law. coinbase doesn't run an s.e.c. securities exchange but allows users to trades hundreds of crypto 0l■tokens. the s.e.c. thinks these tokens and other products should beñ treated as a security and, therefore, regulated likei] alp security. earlier this morning iu■p,■i] interviewed the chief legal officer from coin boys who said they runxd a rigorous review process and have rejected more than 90% ofa5■ assets that have applied to be listed on coinbase, although he couldn't >> they dot( not review in advae or up front. it's upg individual issuers to make those assessments themselvq■ñiw3 applying the rules, if any, law that shapes those fjáu&es. the problem we this is÷dlp there no rules for crypto, so we'v%■p been left toa5■ guess to how th s.e.c. thinks about these issues.

>> coinbase has been running for over a decade. went public two years ago. the s.e.c. is only issuing thi3 warning now, causing, as you can see on the screen,fá the stock plunge down over 15%. coinbase says they welcome a legal process, mike. >> thank you very much. want to get over toi] shares ofq block,w3nb■qfá plungingjfp,■ afg saying they allowed block to ops2táe onjf itsó[■ platform. block is denying the allegations and vowing to fight claims by the short seller, writing, we interñ■ to work with the s.e.c. and explore legal action against hindenberg researchñi that's factually inaccurate and misleading report about our cash app business. we reviewed the context of our own data and believe it's designed to deceive and confuser investors. let's bring in trevor williams for his take on this back andvp forth. give us a sense, trevor, of where you come down on this.

clearly the market found something to be concerned with in some of these revelations.xd■ >> yeah, thanks for having me on. there is a lotq-r■ in the repor. there is a lotq-r■ in the repor. to us there or incremental information that wasçó?;■ uncovered. thefá biggest piece of newq information was around the accusationsd cohort of users within the cash app thatzv■ basically belong to number ofñrt(ñr users that haver multiple accounts they've used to facilitate activity. there's not all that mucht(ñi by of real quantification in the report, so it certainly reads salaciously. ezt( the al but ultimately we think it's going9yrz beçó a fairly contain

issue, at least by the way ofq the number of userse1 that coul beñr affected. most of the rest of thefá repor isxd reallyzv■ñiq not all that incrementalt( in terms of the typesfá of jfallegations, or ato least the types of information they're bringing to light around some of the revenue streams tied to the debit card used, the implied interest rate on instant transfer products they have. we think even the stock reaction over the coursei] of today is kd of indicative of initially, obviously, there wasxd axd nega reaction butjf investors have digested the information in the >> sure. although it's down 15%e1 on ten times average volume so i guess there is a littleñi bit of a stampede and maybe just people getting aggressive on the shortç side ofñi it if not liquidating. what about thexd revenue stream in t%-ço■ of interchange and ho

they route the rev% area to get around somejf regulation. and really maybexd just more wh profitability of thise1 user ba is less than the compaá1ñdl has made it seem.xd less valuablexd over time. >> well, yeah, the point about again, there was no quantification in the report on trying to say what actualxd percentage about 50 million active users they had as of the fourth quarter. they did not try to say whatçó percentage of those users they believe e1were, quote, unquote,■ fraudulent. on the refuse new streamsñi witn the cash app, the revenue debit interchange that square earns by utilizing partner banks for the debit card that's issued to users, again, what's being brought to -- atfá least what's being brought to the forefront

of the report is not new or incremental information. square and many other finteches who are not banks use partner banks that are under the durbin cap of $10 billion in assets to issue debitñi cards on their behalf. ,h rates of interchange. )j something very well known and understood byjf the market. the information being brought to light by hindenberg today. not new or jfñ3■ncremental. >>e1 and i guess the question - who knows, if some of this is now brought to the attention of regulators on one side of this or another, there wasq aw3 lot xd and covid relief funds and thingse1 like that. we'll see if it has another act9 trevor, we appreciate you coming mn with your perspective on jfi. thank you. let's send it over to seema jú6■ companies targeted by

hindenb)q;iu(u r the three months after those hindenburg reports werejf published. the latest who was atñi once th richest man injf asia but following short-seller's allegations of corruption, $70w billion ofxd his wealth erased.i india supreme court is conductin/ hindenburg is known for its bet against electric car company nicola whichw3 allowed trevor milton to resign as ceo and a fraud in federal court.ed withl the stock is stillxd trading at all-time low. and they took aim at another electric company. on twitter it was first short and then long the stock once twitter@gcled a suit against elon musk as youi] pointed out me. more winsxt 9■ losses. >> that's right.e1 they did flip-flop on twitter. it haven't really a big -- one ofñi these kind of deep researc

calls, i don't think.lp it's reallyfá good run down on their performance. i would aõ pointt&÷ out, not every short research firm has such a high hit rate and at(e1 track record. some of them do try this type of thing and it doesn't always xd work. >> i thinkxd they call it financial forensic research and it's paid off soç!ñfar. >> it has, indeed. t0a-juááz much. we're monitoringñi treasury secretaryñi janet yellen testifying before the house. we'll bring you all the highlights as we get them. up next, forecasting the up next, forecasting the fed.

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capitol hill wrapping upw3 mome( ago. julia joins us with theñijf lat on how it went. hi,ñi julia. >> the tiktokxd hearing wrappedd

up. the ceo egddred hiod vehicle after that very intense hearing. there are two areasxdñi in whic was really criticized andqñ grilled on. the first onet( was the fact th tiktok isg a subsidiary of bytedance. a lot of concerns that bytedance being a qchinese-based!u■ compa had two elements of control, both gathering u.s. data and potentially manipulating the u.s. public. the odhi■ñi category of concern from both -- people on both sides of thexd aisle in congres is this idea that teenagers, young people are really being damaged by the content on tiktok. two key areas of questioning. i haá-■ to pointa5■ out, we jus■ a comment from senator mark warnerñiok and johna5■ thune po out some particular concerns when it comes to tiktok's chinese ownership. saying under law all chinese companies, including tiktok, whose parent company is based in beijing, are ultimately required to do the bidding of chinese+■

intelligence services shouldq they be called upon to do so. nothing we heard from mr. chew today asaged those concerns saying it's vital for congress toçó mitigate the harmsñi posed russia. so, somet( commentary about the quick momentum and strong bipartisan support they saw in congress +'e9 and certainly i have to!u■ say, i've never seen such bipartisan support, particularly when it comes to the approachu■y@íf the tech hearings. guys? >> for sure, julia. thank you. of course, senators warner and thune are c÷!-sponsors of one o the billsçó tható[■ mightq rest tiktok activity if it were to pass. thank you, julia. we are watching treasury secretaryxd janet yellenyf te3ámony on capitol hill. yellen saying regulators are yellen saying regulators are deposit actions if warrantedçó prevent contagion in the banking sector.#ú8c joins ñus, charles plosser,5a■ former philadelphia fed president. mr. plosser, it's good to see i] you.

this, of course, was top of min1 during yesterday's press powell. he attempted to5a■xd essentialll folks their deposits are safe even without there beingjf axd of specificsp,■ about programs you ñ2)jju, or t(backstops or anything like that. is that the right message from this point or should therelp be to makeñ things more i]explicit? >> i think there needs to be action. i think powell did a pretty good ge trying to walk a fine line and ñ bankingok lpsystem. but for there to be explicit deposits w be a hugejf step in expanding wt weñi call theq safety net. how much is it going to banks, the fdic, the taxpayer or customers of banks. and we've had a terrible proble■ ñ as they

keep expanding government fá bailouts and qjfbackstops,xd cuq deposits and otherxd things.t( that'sç')t moral hazard. the more we get of that, theñr less market discipline is going to occur to discipline both funds and riskçó takers as welld bad business plans if they're not allowed to fail.i] so, i think this would be y■p b step and theyñi weaseled their y around it this time byñi declarg medium size bank toxd!u■ñi be systematic. and that just se,%>■ inyu#tion lot of moral hazard problems and risk takingt(xd that you really don't want to have. >> of course, as pñ'.11ñ i guess, tried to characterize it, he feltçó as if the consumer response to what happened at that one midsized+■ bank could

potentially have become systematic if it wereq to continue. i guess it takesjf guesswork aso what likelyñi would have happen if t programs. i do want to get of how it does influence the monetary policy program right now. we now seemfáfát( to have the f prepared to, perhaps, do one more quarter-point hike. q they yesterday to it being the final one because a lot of the bankiná stability and credit correction is going to do the work for xdi. is that the correct months tour by the fed?fá >> i think at the moment that's a fair argument to make. i think there's a huge amount of uncertainty out there, as we all know. waiting to see how this all i] volatility becomes moreçó stabl

and less concerns, and inflation doesn't fall, we may be in a situation where moree1 rate hik should be on the table. so, i thinkñi we ought not get or let the markets get too much ahead ofz6dthemselves ont( this matter and be very careful there is a lot of uncertainty and much can happen in thexd near qterm. v note yield a full percentage rate above the fed funds rate.g we'll see if fed officials have to do something toxt the othewv■ direction. charles plosser, appreciate your time. we have to run. thank you very much. biggest movers as we head to the close. we'll tell you what's driving regeneron stock higher. "closing bell" will be right back.

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welcome back. shares of÷ some strong drug data.ñr meg tirrell just caught up with the company's president and joinsñiw3lp us now. >> this is already a major drug results in xde1ñrñc3çócopd, chr

obstructive pulmonary disease. there have been a lot of attempts toxd develop drugs for it. in pays 3 results, regeneron showed it reduced exacerbation of 30%r showed significant improvement in lung function and quality of life. they have another phase 3 trial in xd we'll see what the regulatory pathwayrwjjju like going forward. regeneron's president and chief scientific officer pointed out, this drug has already been successful in many diseases mediated by the same disorder in the immune system. here's what he said.xd >> all theseq diseases aree1xd n by common systematic immune disorder which is uptake of type it calms down the type 2 diseases better, whether in the-

lungs or in your nose or in your skin or esophagus.çó >> this is what the industry calls a pipeline in a product.'■ analysts already estimate this drug will bring in $10 million in revenue this this yearoíoç a could add qxd$3.5 million with s indication in xdcopd.ok regeneron and its partner sanofi up on this news. >> regeneron hitting a new qw3ñr 52-week high on that news.lp joining us cnbc's healthy returns virtually on march 29th for the inside scoop on the hottest health care ñitrends, breakthrough vaccines, digital health,ñi investing insights an more. more. scan the qr code toçó reg good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only

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twitter qquestion. we asked, will the nasdaq continue to lead?xd 55% saying, yes, it wivlj up next, believe in the bounce? top technician jonathan is back and breaking down the key level he's watching to help answer that questtnz and wherexd he se markets headed from a5■here. that is next. and tonight i'll be hosting a cnbc specialññreport, "taking a cnbc specialññreport, "taking stock" at 6:00 what if we live to 100. i don't want to outlive our money. i keep eating all these chia seeds. i could live to be 100. we work with empower, even if we do live to 100 we don't have to worry. eh, not worried. take control of your financial future to empower what's next.

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"closing bell" on this thursday. going to send it over to "overtime" with jon fortt.ñilp [ bell ringing ] i] you gmtv your scorecard o wall street. welcome to w3ñixd"overtime," i' fortt. make a mistake by raising rates? that's what former vice chair alanñi blinder says who will jo us plus, we'll talk to the man who headed up bank supervision for the fed, randall fáquauls, turml in financials and oversight changes during hisçó tenure.