summer of last year. this fiscal year was supposed to be six bucks a share. as of last july. now, next year at six bucks a share, doesn't matter. people are saying the a.i. backlog, everything is going to kind of make the numbers somehow justify this run the stock has been on. >> a legit story for every hot trend. mike, thank you. that's going to do it for "overtime." "fast money" begins right now. right now, a sea of red for the regionals. the big banks and the number of brokerage stocks getting hit hard. will the banking pain spread across the rest of the market that is desperately trying to rebound. plus, washington's tiktok attack. the ceo pressed by law makers from both sides of the aisle about the ap's ties to china. data security, and the harmful effects of the videos on the app. did tiktok hurt or help its chances to avoid a ban? and netflix rolling out new

anti-sharing passwords in new countries. the stock losing 9%? does that mean a crackdown in the u.s. is fast approaching? uh-oh. i'm melissa lee. i have a full house again here on the desk. and we start off with the roller coaster ride for the markets. the dow swinging nearly 650 points from high to low today before closing up a quarter percent, well off the highs of the day. the s&p eking out a gain, but still closing below the 4,000 level. the nasdaq with a rise in more than a percent. semis and china tech leading the way. treasury yields pulled back with the two-year closing at its lowest level since september. the fed is near the end of its rate hike cycle, but has anything changed since yesterday? what's different? like opposite here? >> interesting. tim talked about this. he's been right, by the way. as long as the nasdaq has some relative strength, it's hard for the market to go down. i think with yields moving the

way you just illustrated, that's going to be supportive. whether you acknowledge it or accept it, that's what's going to happen, those stocks are going to go higher. what changed? i'll tell you what changed a little bit. the way the banks started rolling over 12:30 this afternoon, that changed. hyg, something that karen's been short, i mean, this does not trade, i'm not suggesting people should trade it, but that had a pretty precipitous drop around 12:30. something that doesn't move a percent a day moved about a per sent or percent and a half in a short period of time. my concern has been, when credit rolls over, well, at least for today, the hyg is telling the story. >> credit -- look, if you look at high yield spreads, they are up about 110 basis points from the lows, which was only about a month ago. but as guy said, the relative strength, if you look at the triple qs, as long as that works, it's because of that dominant position that the stocks -- this is 30% of the s and p, i think it's peaked.

we're not going to see this in two years and we're not going to see it in ten. but for now, again, it's meant almost 6% since signature bank, since silicon valley bank. the dollar as has peaked. so, you have real significant cross currents. i think the closing low on the two-year, at least through the levels that we were even through kind of peak crisis a couple days ago, is very concerning for equities. right now, positioning tells me, sentiment items me, and i think the market goes higher. >> so, i'll just say this. to your point about the nasdaq outperformance, to me, it's problematic. i've been saying that now for a week, and it doesn't make me feel better about the broad market, because if i look under the hood, it just tells me that the breath is getting worse. when guy just mentioned the banks rolling over -- >> the banks are the life blood of our economy, they look sick, right? and so, what's going on in the nasdaq, particularly these largest names, feels unnatural and it feels like the sort of crowding that could come undone very quickly. if i look at how energy rolled over today, how russell 2000,

small cap stocks, and i get it, there's a lot of exposure there to financials, but you just mentioned credit. and the thing you that are short, high yield credit, right? so, what is going to be, like, on the other side of whatever comes out of this banking situation? it's going to be access to capital, the cost of capital, and small cap companies here are going to have a harder time, they're going to be the hardest hit for this. so, i just look at this, i say the russell is telling us something. i say the banks are telling us something. i think the regionals are saying there's a lot of equity that is not going to be worth a lot. and the large money centers, we talked about this earlier, there are problems lurking. i'm not telling you -- it's just obvious to me. it just really obvious to me. so, we can start that again, i guess. >> i don't know, i felt like we finished it at the time. but to me, i don't think the money center banks is really the duration. i agree with you on the regionals p. i don't feel like the storm is over at all. we haven't seen that credit

contraction there, and we don't know what regulations -- i got an interesting twitter question about, should banks sort of proactively, should regional banks proactively decrease their dividends, just to shore up the balance sheet, even if they don't need to? which is sort of an interesting proposal, actually. i think if everyone did it, then you could hide, sort of behind it. but i do think there's more to come. we haven't seen the resolution of first republic, which i think is an important one. >> does it make you feel better or worse that charles schaub says we can cover with liquidity. if every deposit walked out the door, they would be okay? >> maybe for another institution, no, it would be the opposite effect. we saw that with silicon valley bank, when everything was absolutely fine there. sarah did that interview with the schaub ceo, which i thought was excellent, he did a very good job of calming everyone down. i think him putting up real money to 2,000 shares.

i think they're doing a better job and that customer base, i think, loves schaub and feels comfortable there. but in general, when a bank ceo says that, that's -- not good. >> we -- we compare, though, jp morgan, we don't compare them, but the money center banks are selling off. and we go back to different periods where we thought there was a credit moment happening. dan's right, whether it's happening or not. you sell banks first and they derate and that's what's going on here. and the fact that the kre and regionals closed at fresh lows through where we were is troubling, but doesn't have to necessarily be fire where there's smoke. and i -- it also means to me that there's a lot of dead money innen banks, even if you think you're buying something that's going to balance. couple days ago, we heard big names in the market, they're scooping up banks. and i would just say, i think the breath in the market is terrible. before silicon valley bank, you were seeing industrials, energy, but certainly retail. you were seeing them actually

break out against the s&p. it was excellent. and now it's trapped in those big stocks that i still think at least defensive here. doesn't solve the market's problems, but that's what i'm watching. >> let's get some more on the fed's balance sheet, just released with more details on how the banks are capping the lending window. we go to steve leesman. steve? >> yeah, interesting changes here in movements. this is a potential sign of stress, it could be a potential sign of banks, you know, basically preemptively getting their balance sheets more liquid, but the fed's balance sheet went up by $94 billion in the weekending on wednesday. and that's up $400 billion in the past two weeks. let me show you how this happened, because it's kind of interesting. there's the fed's traditional discount window. it got rid of the hair cuts there. that went down 38 billion, but the new bank term funding program, where you can take your paper, your tired, your poor, your discounted paper and get it

financed at 100 treasuries in mortgage-backed securities, that is only, that went up by 53 billion. and loans to the bridge banks that are closed and the fed finances that until it is paid back by the fdic, that went up additionally by 37. before we come off this screen, guys, the change in the last two weeks is pretty much the same, the amount that's been taken down. so, it's still 163 billion on both sides, if you compare what happened last week, what happened this week. federal -- sorry, foreign central banks also repoed $50 billion at the federal reserve. one more thing that i've been tracking, the gap between what the fed has priced -- has forecast for the year-end funds rate, and where the market is right now. and that's the fed balance sheet. if you look at the market gap, that is now 114, where is it now? it's a tremendous -- that's the january '24 contract. and there it is. thank you very much, guys.

1.13 percentage points, guys. and you see it was negative before, that meant back in the beginning of march, the market thought the fed would do more than the fed itself forecast, and now that's come dramatically back the other way, where now the market is baking until that the fed will be 1.13 percentage points below where the fed thinks it's going to be at the end of this year. there's a reckoning to come, guys. it's going to be interesting. >> which way will it break, though? fed, going back to the fed balance sheet, the traditional window went down, but we saw the huge pop last week, right, because that was before the special window had opened. we flush it out, but still, even if it remains the same week on week, isn't it still a record level? >> yeah, it is, but it's not gotten worse. that's a good thing. we don't know, melissa, and i'm quoting former vice chairman alan blinder from the last

segment, who said, we don't know if it's one bank, two banks, ten banks. could be the same banks that are continuing to roll over the paper. i think ult's good news it hasn't gotten worse, and by the way, it's sort of a good deal. i'm working on the math on this, but it's a good deal to go to that new fed program. you actually could make a couple points on it there, so, it's not necessarily all just distress in there, maybe that's going on by the banks. if not, it could be what it's being used for its intended purpose is this. you get reserves, you get short-term paper, and you can provide liquidity you need, if you have deposits going out the door. so, that's why we're watching that number now. >> all right, steve, thank you. steve leesman. >> pleasure. >> karen, what is your take on these numbers? >> well, i'm not sure what to make of that btfp one. was it 38 or 43? >> 38, i think. i don't know. >> 38. that's still low -- last week at

12, or 11.7, whatever it but, that was way lower than i thought. i thought, maybe just the mash nations of getting it up and running, i'm surprised we didn't see more of that. i don't know what to make of that. so, it wasn't -- it wasn't a disaster, though, right? the whole thing wasn't a disaster. it was quite surprising last week. not this week, but i still sort of feel like this eye of the storm, not the end of the storm. >> part of the bear case, you know, that i've been making is, qt, right? tonight fight the fed, david tepper, the whole thing. we asked steve a question a week or so ago, is this the start of qe again, or the end of qt, whatever?mitted it's probably temporary. that's a question you have to circle yourself. is this just temporary and they'll try to reduce their balance sheet at some future date? or was this a failed experiment?

i don't know the answer, but it's clear that it's very difficult for them to try to reduce the balance sheet that got way too big. janet yellen testifying before the house this afternoon, looking to clarify some of the statements she made yesterday that sent the markets reeling. let's get more on this with kayla. >> melissa, she re-established her message out of the gate, by inserting this line. she said, as i have said, we used important tools to act quickly to prevent contagion and they are tools we can use again. the strong actions we have taken ensure that americans' deposits are take. we would be prepared to take additional actions if warranted. later on in the hearing, she explained the thought process and said regulators would take action for a bank of any size. >> i believe our tools worked and what i've said is that these are tools we could use again for

an institution of any size, if we judge that its failure would pose -- >> earlier this week, yellen said the emergency funds were not tailored towards a specific bank or class of banks, suggesting that regulators could rescue depositors in aen baaing in any side. she is providing that implicit vote of confidence here. melissa? >> all right, kayla, thank you. this is exactly what we were talking about yesterday, right, karen? you were pointing this out. that statement really took the markets by surprise. >> it really did. and steve was on the show, saying, wait, the market got too excited before. this is her trying to thread the needle, really, right? i mean, she'd like to present the idea of deposits are safe without saying deposits are safe, saying on a sort of one-off basis, we're here. >> right. when there is a one-off basis, we're here. >> right.

which is -- you know, it sort of worked. >> yeah. is that a reason to get more bullish on the banks? we knew that every bank was backstopped? >> how can they do that? $20 trillion in deposits. the big are getting bigger and it makes the whole financial system that much more fragile. we were just talking about breadth in the market. they made a guarantee that the deposits are fine, at a time when we just talked about the balance sheet, which is going back up to all-time highs, toward $10 trillion. my point is, like, if we're just going to keep kicking every can down the road, you know, sweep everything under rugs, it makes the financial system that much more fragile and makes the large banking institutions less interesting from an investment standpoint, because yes, they are going to actually be too big to fail. but what are you going to pay for those? what are the regulations -- >> i also just think that the market doesn't believe the fed.

and this is the fed's reputation proceeds them. there's nothing they can do. so, the market believed that the fed was going to push, or that, you know, the reztreasury -- pee don't know the difference between the fed and the treasury, because yellen went from fed to treasury. sometimes it seems like it's the same group. it's not. you need a moment to actually make the changes they talked about. that's partly why almost there was a scolding going on. but look at fed funds. the two things over the last couple of days, the markets wrestling with, and the market still is keeping rates at a place that's exactly what steve said. the market is pricing in that the fed is going to do, you know, dealt on fed funds from may peak until the end of the year. and that's going to be the painful part. and that's what we started to do yesterday, though the market took it all back and yields closed and even lower today. >> yeah. our next guest suggests the fed has not materially broken anything yet and more banking turmoil could be ahead. you've been sitting here listening so the conversation. what would instill confidence in

the banks for investors? is it blanket insurance? does that make you feel better? >> i think it is important to look at what's going on right now. the banks that are going on are primarily business banks. silvergate, svb, signature. and so, they have deposit concentration that is primarily through, like, either a crypto angle or a startup angle. and of course, they have deposits that are way better than 250k insurance. so, they are able to move that money quickly and given the backdrop of how startups and the his be business conditions are, they are sensitive to some of these conditions. so, i think in terms of, like, the business banking community, there's very little we can do right now, other than some of the guarantees that are going on. i think it's a different story for consumers at this point. >> sounds like you can't make a set of rules to guard against stupid risk management of your own portfolio, right? i mean, you can't -- >> we talk about it all the time. in a past life, you were a bond trader, you were a currency

trader. what do -- tim was talking about the moves we've been seeing over the last couple years. >> yeah, some of these interest rate moves are insane. we've seen some of the hedge funds that have recently gone down. so, there's professional pain where there's consumer pain. when you think about the consumer, a lot of people who are living paycheck to paycheck are on variable rate mortgages, credit card debt that is now north of a trillion dollars. if you quint, it is back on track in terms of the curve that we were on, the slope that we were on, but it is excessive, so, the thing that worries me right now is the interest rate volatility that infers the equity, the profitability of the banks. that's what to look for right now. and looking at the consumer, as we go into q-2, q-3, i'm a little worried. >> talk to us about that, to guy's point. i know you were a macro trader during the financial crisis. going back 15 years or so. now you built a company that is actually competing with the incumbent banking system. so, when you think about the environment that we're in right now, does it feel fragile to

you, if you put your old traing cap on, versus as a builder, i'm just curious. you heard us talking about it. wie not trying to create some sort of fear about the situation. i have a lot of scar tissue, as many of us do, from that period 15 years ago, and some of it is kind of bubbling back up. i'm curious, how is this effecting you and what you're building? >> that's a good question. with my macro trading cap on, i think powell is doing an okay job. not great, but an okay job, because he raised 25, he had his moment yesterday. we're seeing nonsystemic bank running, sort of one after the other. so, as i squint from a mack ro perspective, i'm like, this is okay, and i think there's more pain to come. so, from a macro perspective, i'm saying, okay, there's going to be more bank runs, regionals are more fragile, and we're

going to see more pain and i think the fed expects more pain. from a consumer standpoint, there's different. and from a tech ceo standpoint, the svb event was highly disruptive and extremely painful. >> from a fin tech perspective, is it good that people are questioning their traditional banks at this point or does it just all go to a bank of america or jpmorgan? >> i think they are going to make a choice, whatever the new number is going to be, clearly that's up for grabs, for the majority of americans, they don't really have that kind of money and they feel fairly protected with either a fin tech or regional or even a money center. just remember, money center banks, they don't serve the majority of americans. so, that's why we exist. >> stuart, thank you. >> thank you. >> tim, what do you think? >> well, i think part of the issue that we're not addressing are consumer credit issues that i think a lot of, you know, and again, fin techs are -- it's a big classification that could

really be disruption in terms of access and access to products. doesn't mean they are taking credit risk, there are a lot that are. the first round of the market's selldown was sell all fin tech, because these were high multiple tech stocks, in many cases didn't make money. a lot of them out there have a lot of credit exposure. we're going to talk more about block, you know, the buy now, pay later garbage that a lot of people invested in, is something that is right in the cross hairs of consumer credit. i think what we're all saying, i saw it second one. they are derating as we speak. you can't own these things like you could two months ago. and i was a big believer that the money center banks were game on. >> so, they're derating, but do they deserve a rerating? what's the difference between derating and rerating? >> you know, your p is going down, what you are worth is going down and that may -- a rerating would imply there is a new normal, that they have to be judged by a different standard in terms of their operating environment. >> i think we really need to hear from them.

we need to hear, how are things changing for them? the massive amount of inflows, for example, when we hear from money center banks, i think that's going to be really important. i think that, to the extent that the regionals are so hampered by either fear or regulation or both, that potentially works to the bank's benefit. but if we see regulation applied to them, as well, because they're now even bigger, even, you know, scarier, if they fail, we can't have that, i don't know. i want to hear from them. >> more regulation is going to hurt the smaller banks. i mean, dan said it, karen said it, it's fascinating that, you know, we were in this era where you don't want banks to be too big to fail, that's exactly what the last three or four weeks is creating. >> credit suisse was one of the 30 systemically important, and switzerland as a country is -- i mean, think about, they are the banking capital of the world, and suddenly that was in question. coming up, electric details.

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welcome back. ford shares tipping today after projecting a $3 billion loss in its ev business for 2023. it was the first time the company broke out the results for the unit. there was a more than $2 billion loss in the ev unit last year, buford affirming overall profitability across brands and saying it is aiming for the ev unit to hit a 10% profit margin by 2026. a billion dollars more in losses, tim. >> you know, and it shows you some of the pain that tesla was in years before, where, you know, my big issue with the company there, they were not profitability and they didn't have the balance sheet to compete. that's different, we won't get into that, but in ford's case, you look at what they have said about the efficiency of their overall company and what they're looking to do in terms of streamlining different divisions, and it tells you they're going to continue to lose money. and it doesn't even address some of the battery issues they all have. >> why do you think they do

this, karen? i feel like there's some other reason why they would break out units, like there's a skimoff coming, might be better for valuation -- >> yeah, that's what i would think. i guess also the idea of more transparency is ultimately better. i don't know if they want different assets with different cash flow. i don't know. i don't know. it is interesting, and it begs the question, what is gm going to look like? >> phil lebeau pushed back on ford, and i've been wrong many times in this. just go back, june of last year, october of last year, december -- each time we get down to this 11 and a quarter area, we bounce, so, and there's the chart right there, so, we looking to trade it, here is your level, but man oh man, they just can't really -- they have not figured it out yet. >> wait. are you going to bring up tesla? >> no. listen, tesla lost billions of dollars trying to build an ev business.

but i agree with you. why wouldn't you get it out there, as long as you actually don't think you're going to mansion massively get that number wrong. and the other night, i said something really stupid, okay, at the end of my conversation -- >> be specific. >> you know, you guys -- there is lots of love here. >> there is. >> and that's a good one. >> absolutely. >> i said something really stupid and i said, you know, i said something about tesla having more to lose than, like, a gm or a ford in this thing. and i think in some degrees they do, as it relates to market share and their margins and stuff like that, but that's more of a near term thing. i said, in 100 years, gm is going to be around, maybe they aren't, who knows, that was dumb. but we're saying things on the fly. >> happens all the time. i said stupid things constantly. >> well, no. >> anyway. not even going to talk about guy. >> only have an hour. that's why. wise guy. a lot more "fast money" to

come. here is what's coming up next. a new short on block. a scathing short seller report hitting the stock of the company formerly known as square. the acusations and block's response, next. plus, top talker on the hill. tiktok ceo facing lawmakers, as a potential ban on the app looms overhead. overhead. the

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yesterday's fed rate hike. nasdaq's third positive session in four. meantime, shares of block getting crushed after short sellers put out a scathing report on the fin tech company that alleges that block allowed criminal activity to operate with lax controls and highly invated its cash app user base for a report describing block as taking a wild west approach to compliance. block said, we intend to work with the s.e.c. for the misleading report the group shared about our cash app business today. adding, they are known for these types of attacks. we have reviewed the full report, believe it is designed to deceive and confuse investors. block went on to say that it is a highly regulated company with regular disclosures, compliance programs, and controls. the stock dropped nearly 15%

after this report. oftentimes, short sellers dig up stuff that end up to be true, sometimes they don't. then we don't hear anything about it. they have ridden the stock down and they are out. >> hidden berg has a very loud voice in the market and a lot of it is deserved. there's always a little bit of sizzle on what is going on here. there are plenty of fin techs an banks where there is illegal activity going on. i don't know that this is unique to them. but i read research reports addressing their research report, and it just seems to me that a lot of analysts are pointing out there's not a lot of new here. an again, they are following, you know, client and a aml protocols and that in terms of knowing your client and also then matching the cash app users against some of the other filings. you know, it seems like people are pushing back a little bit. >> karen? >> yeah, this one is interesting, has not received

nearly as sort of embraced entirely, and i think that a different point i want to make is, i really do think 13-d rules should apply to short sellers, as well, right? so, we have to know -- >> what their position is. >> right. and whether it changes. i would really want to know if they were to cover, let's say, at 50. i have no idea what, maybe they're looking for -- i don't know where they're looking for it to go, but i do think short sellers are allowed -- you throw something out there and it's very hard to clear that up, right? even if what they say isn't true. >> that would onto be triggered by a threshold holding, correct? >> yes. i think it should be of similar size. why not a short at 5%, as well? and if you have to update it. so, that's -- that, i think, would level the playing field, because it is unfair, when shot sellers put that out there. coming up, the chief tiktoker making his case as lawmakers grill the chinese

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welcome back to "fast money." tiktok's ceo defending its company against a potential ban in the u.s. social stocks sizzling higher on the heels of this. let's get to julia for more on the story. >> tiktok was certainly under attack today, amid a growing call to ban the popular app or force a sale of it by its chinese parent company. members of congress expressing concern over tiktok's damaging effect on teens, as well as the risks associated with this chinese parent can company. tiktok's ceo saying they are no worse than u.s.-owned platforms. >> the potential security, privacy, content manipulation concerns raised about tiktok are

really not unique to us. the same issues apply to other companies. we believe what's needed are clear, transparent rules that apply broadly to all tech companies. ownership is not at the core of addressing these concerns. >> but rival stocks, u.s.-based meta, snap, and pinterest, shares moving higher today on that attack on tiktok. and bernstein saying that meta, google, and snap stocks could jump higher on a confirmed ban, saying the 150 million users on tiktok would go to instagram reels, because most top tiktok creators cross post on reels and to snap's spotlight, which has the highest demographic overlap with tiktok. but it is worth noting that if there is reform of section 230, which was mentioned today, all the social platforms could suffer from having to bear more liability for the content on

their platform. melissa? >> julia, thank you. it is interesting that there are two issues, i feel like, that are being sort of not conflated, but you know, intertwined in a way that they shouldn't -- there is the issue of data and where it is housed and who has access, et cetera, which they are addressing right now with project texas. but let's put that aside for a minute. there is also the content manipulation, which the ceo just outlined. this is not a chinese problem, and it's not like chinese actors can't go onto u.s. social media sites and do the same if they wanted to a misinformation campaign. we've seen that before. >> yeah, i guess it's the influence, though, right? one of the first questions that was started out in that hearing was a list of names of people who are associated with the parent company who are also very close to the ccp. >> i get that. >> but isn't that the thing? >> the influence is a very different issue than the data. i mean -- should we be, you know, concerned and ashamed that our culture is revolving around tiktok? possibly.

but it has nothing to do with the data issue. what is at the center of all of this is the fight over technology between the u.s. and china. and this is something that's really at the center of what is, you know, i think something that is front and foremost in global geo-politics for the next decade, but it's been going on for three years and it's getting worse. this is what this is about. it goes right back to u.s. companies that want to operate in china. the ministry said this morning or last night that thre are going to be serious ramifications, and the globe would question doing business in the u.s. if they forced a sale here. and whether that's true or not, the chinese government has spoken and it's not pretty. >> that's the story, like, what's the reciprocity here? what are the ramifications? what are the chinese going to do in retaliation of all this rhetoric that's coming? and i say -- it hasn't happened yet, i hope it doesn't happen, but the companies in the cross hairs are clearly names like starbucks, mcdonald's, apple is at the top of that list.

i don't think that risk is being priced in near enough. >> what does this mean for the social media stocks and for the other companies operating in china? let's bring in gene munster. you have said on past shows, it's not a matter of when -- not a matter of if, it's a matter of when, when it comes to a ban on tiktok. you think when that day does come, whenever it does come, that there will be ramifications? are you looking at apple any differently? are you thinking there should be risk imbedded in the multiple because of this possibility of just retaliatory action? >> i can say this, is that tesla and apple and nike, they're all pinned to this 5 1/2 hours of hearing today. it wasn't just people who are interested in meta and tiktok. and i think that there is a piece here. and i think tim hit it right on. there were two topics today. one was related to the hearing. the hearing was intense.

it was 5 1/2 hours of tiktok bashing. bipartisan. haven't seen anything like it in 30 years. and then there's the political piece to it. to your point about what the other companies are. and today was largely theater. the reality is, this is much bigger than tiktok. this is about u.s./china relations. and a banning of tiktok is going to be negative for u.s./china relations. i think it will intensify some of the separation that's there. and biden administration, it's unlikely they want to pursue that right now. that's why they've been talking about this sale. so, my sense is that we have some time here. i think biden is going -- the administration is going to want to allow tiktok to remain available, at least until we get cooling down. a lot has happened in the last two months between the u.s. and china. so, yes is the answer to your question, is that that did, as i was just processing, i'm embarrassed to admit, i watched 5 1/2 hours of this today. it was that riveting. and at the end of it, what -- as

i was just putting my thoughts together, it came up, what does this mean for tesla, nike, apple? >> gene, it's karen. as this tiktok sort of groundswell has continued, and meta has gone up, maybe not just meta, but how much do you think is now priced in for the possibility of tiktok being banned and the benefit that would acure to -- >> definitely -- i don't think it's fully priced in. with shareholders of meta. we think it's going to happen, but we don't think it's priced in at this point. how much? i think there's probably 10% upside. keep in mind, over the last year, there's been four issues that meta stock has faced. one of them has been concern that tiktok is going to be kind of on meta's growth for the next few years. so, i think that's a big deal. that's a sleep well at night knowing that investors don't have to worry about tiktok. i would say this, i mentioned some of the companies, the big tech companies, but this is not

just all good for meta, either. is that -- if you, as you watch this, you see, there is a huge concern about the addictive and dangerous aspects of short-term format video and social media. that's reels, as well. and so, i think that while this seems to be a clear benefit in the near term, which i don't think it's priced in, because we're going to see changes. i mean, i think it's getting to a point where now whenever you see bipartisan, i mean, that's a sign that something real is happening here, that there is going to be some changes m and i think the spotlight, when it gets banned, i think it's a function of time, when tiktok gets banned, i think meta will have to answer some of the same questions that tiktok was getting asked today. >> hey, gene, while we have you, separate some of these geo-politics and what it could mean for a discount rate on a company. we're talking about megacap tech outperforming the s&p by a massive amount. the rerating on a relative basis of megacap tech.

your sense on valuations? and i look at apple within 10% of an all-time high, leaving china aside, with demand pull forward, a very different equity environment. what do you think about this move? >> so, apple specifically, i'm still optimistic. i still think there is upside here, in part, you know, we have -- there's potentially some demand, but there's been demand pushed out, as well, because of some of these -- some of the economic pieces. so, i think you're going to see a strong cycle in the back half of the year. i think there's other categories that apple can get into. i'm still -- yes, there's risk with apple, but i'm still optimistic. but i think the stock can go higher. >> gene, thank you. >> thank you. >> you have to wonder, you know, an operator like a starbucks, they have a loyalty program here in the united states, a lot of customer data. apple, too. they have all your information. how is that data stored in china? and what is the view -- they can easily say, point the finger back at us and say, look what

you guys are doing. >> yeah. >> if you are going to do this to us -- >> for sure. so, that rhetoric continues to get racheted up and then what's the next, you know, what happens -- again, we didn't even talk about china/taiwan. what happens if something happens there? the hands get forced of the u.s. multinationals that have put so much into the whole china story. i don't know, again, 15%, 20%, in our business, we call that tail risk. but in my opinion, it's not being priced in. coming up, stranger things have happened. netflix rallying today. can the stock keep streaming? we'll debate that next. and throughout march, we are celebrating women's heritage. here's our own morgan brennan. >> when i was in my 20s in college studying anthropology, on a whim, i shaved my head. after i did it, i was surprised to find myself mourning the loss of my hair and what it meant for my identify as a woman. i embraced it, i had fun with it, but it was this literal

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of netflix surging 9% for their best day of the year. the big jump coming as the company's new anti-password sharing rules take effect in canada. the crackdown hasn't come yet for the u.s., but could the move bode well for the stock? this was a big market for netflix. the second-biggest outside the united states. so, if you are sharing your password right now -- >> it's hard to chase netflix on a move like today, with 8% move. big volume day. but they've seen the -- seem to have figured out all the ills they had when it was a $180 stock and everybody hated them. if you own the stock, you absolutely stay with it here. i still think this is trend up to $400 and still be a reasonably valued stock. but it's hard to initiate a long

position on the back of what we saw today. >> and that's where i would go with this. at 400 bucks, it's roughly 26 1/2 times where people have them at around $14.75. and that's a world where some of this is accretive. it's hard for me to see where the password sharing is something that's negative for the company. that's why i thought, you know, there was a lot of overreaction to that. i realize there may be some push-back, and i think actually leading up into this, netflix was under some pressure, and the release has been a bit of a relief. >> yeah. you know, in an environment where tech is a flight to safety trade, should there be a closure, because this is an underperforming on the nasdaq. >> tim's point to all these moves being accretive, the ad-supported model, it doesn't cannibalize. you look at consensus, they are expected to go up. so, if you are expecting 15%, 20% earnings growth the next couple years and sales growth about 10%, stock trading 27 times. it's not unreasonable. we spent so much time on this

desk talking about how the valuation was one of the big issues with this story over time, so, it seems kind of right sized if they debt -- >> and they're making money in their streaming business. there's free cash flow there. they're the only ones that can say it. say it. coming up, i was born on the south side of chicago. it has been a long road, but now i'm working for schwab. i love to help people understand the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure that you have all of the financial tools and support to secure your financial future. that means a lot for my community and for every community. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989!

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welcome back to "fast money." regeneron surging today after an asthma drug showed strong copd trial results. but options traders are pumping the brakes. mike khouw has the action. >> yeah, did slightly outpace the bullish bets that we saw today. the most active contract were the april 275 puts. we saw a purchase of 720 of those for $4.30 a contract. the important thing to think about, that was only 3.5% out of the money yesterday, and that purchase price is less than half a percent of the current stock price. my bet, this is probably a hedge by somebody who was happy enough to see today's bump, but figured they could spend a little bit of money in case it goes back to those gains. >> guy? >> you think regeneron $802

stock, that's all-time high. $800 is a big number. valuation-wise, it's not an extensive stock. it's trading at 17 1/2 times next year's number. this is extraordinarily reasonable in this world. so, i hear what mike is saying, maybe it's a huge, but you still have to stay with this name here, i think. >> mike, th an

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. in 1:07. tim? >> we're giggling about guy's big win in the casino. leave it at that. maybe we can take this to twitter. america. i don't think you're playing the casinos with the big pharma names. a little rich on valuation, but love the pipeline. >> chairwoman? >> i'm in the same group with you. i like bristol myers. good place to hide in a turbulent mark. >> dan? >> i say dumb things on the show, everyone once in awhile. i also make dumb trades on my own. so, i added to the qqq.

this is one i'm kind of leaning into. >> guy? >> when you let somebody behind, the fifth wall -- >> the fourth. >> fourth. just so we understand each other, it was 1994-95, at foxwoods. i'd do a whole show on that. >> is that a casino? that. mcd. >> thank you for watching "fast money." see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. meantime a cnbc special "taking stock" with mike santoli starting now.e1i]w3e1 welcome to this cnbc special. i'm mike santoli. jim cramer is off tonight. another volatile session for the markets as investors are left to hang on for the ride. the dow swinging nearly 650 points from high to low today. before closing up about a quarter percent. well off its highs of the day. the s&p also eking out a gain but still closing below the 4,000 ym■oklevel.ñi the nasdaq lead