seen so much about bank runs in the market the last couple weeks. interesting to get his insight on that. interesting we're ending the day higher the, week higher and ending the last two weeks higher and, that's when we first started talk about svb. >> get your portfolio position. mikkel barr also speaking on tuesday, so don't miss that. >> that's going to do it for us here on "overtime." >> "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast", the bumpy trip to, well, nowhere. despite a week of wories from the fed and regionals the markets finished the week right where they started. why with all the worries is wall street seemingly unfazed? plus, tim cook arrives in beijing. we'll look at how apple seems to be the teflon tech titan right now. and later, one shiny moment for

gold. the precious metal topping the $2,000 week for the first time in one year. why one trader says this could be a 18, maybe even 24 karat trade. we start off with action in the rates market. the two-year falling as low as 3.65%, hitting the lowest level since september before bouncing back, closed the day down by just a few basis points. tighter than it's been since late october. meantime, stocks eked out another day of gains. the s&p down a percent. take a look at bank stock. money center and regional banks, etfs posting gains. even deutsche bank closed well off the lows. who would have thunk it after all the volatility we saw this

week we'd end up right here where we are. tim, kind of amazing, isn't it? >> we're within three month highs on s&p. we're seen the vix collapse, and who's right, bonds or stocks? bond market is always smarter, and i would just say the moves on the two-year are more troubling than the move on the ten-year, because they're telling you how quickly you're going to see the short end cave. you mentioned the moves. we got to 368 on year end fund moves. deck 2023 fed funds. and at one point we were saying we were getting 98 to 95 points in this year. i know we talk about this. that's not necessarily gospel. it's sentiment but tells you where the equity and bond dislocation is. a 3% ten-year would be catastrophic. that's where the chart says it's going. i hate the move today. i know we're talk more about deutsche, and i think there's more of a reason the money

center banks are under more of a cloud on some level because of the concerns of what happened with credit swissx4srhp' whethe the at 1 tier one bonds were completely wiped out. changes for stop of these systemically important banks. >> guy, i know what concerns you is the moves we've seen in the treasury market, and we've seen a lot this week. >> without question. 150-point basis move over the three weeks. topped out at 5.14%. going from 110 basis points to 25 basis points in a similar manner of time. i don't think it's particularly healthy, and some of these banks probably got themselves that led to silicon valley. i'm pretty certain there are other banks offsides ginn this move as well. i don't think we've seen the last of headline announcements. and i'm with tim on this one. i understand the market is taking low rates as a positive

and you're seeing high flying w= rates going d portend full speed ahead. i think it's actually a much different story. tim's right, if two years gets down the 3%, i would tell you it's not for good reasons. >> yeah, do you feel better or worse now versus a week ago? >> i mean, i don't think when you look at the banks nothing really changed. i think a lot of banking issues are likely going to be contained, and i think you're going continue to get knee jerk reactions. now today it's deutsche bank. does not seem to be a larger issue with the banks and i think we still contend that. the general economy looks look it's on good footing and that's why the markets are doing well. with everything going on at the banks it's just leading to more and more possibility that the fed is going to pause or likely cut rates later this year. i think that's a bigger picture story of what's happening. that's what the headlines are focusing on, and i don't think

that's changed. >> what did bullard say today? 80% chance financial stress contained. he believes -- markets are pricing in a pivot, like actual cuts to start this calendar year, and we've got bullard coming out saying, i'm going to raise my terminal raid, and i a so it going as high as .75% because financial stress will be contain beside the fed is going back to fighting inflation. what do you think? >> you got to be very careful who you're listening to and what the motivation is behind it. i think everyone wants to be remembered for the person that called it the right way, especially when you're looking towards monetary policy, it gets a little muddy. but the market is pricing in 100 basis points. that is huge. if you look at the s&p, the s&p is still holding that 200-day

moving average. close above it today but ticked below it as well. i don't like the breaks of the 200-day moving average, and if you look at the long-term trend line, it's about a year old from the high to the low that we've seen in the s&p. the market is riding that downward now melissa, so it really looks like -- if you want to use a technical term it looks like a descending triangle. for me, as i look at this market, sort of fading, i think it has all that before before i get overtly negative on the overall market, but to agree with the rest of the desk, i don't think this is over yet. i think we're going to see more bank issues going forward. that's negativ5é market. >> yeah. >> well, by the way, three banks we get bank earnings. so i know it's a little much. with you usually get a head start on earnings. we'll be focus on a lot of

different issues, and what i think is going on with the banks and especially the european banks -- we don't need to get too deep, but deutsche bank is not only systemically important, it's the -- bank. the concern is what you saw happened in switzerland is something that can happen to any banks that are nationalized banks. the government can say, no matter what, they can say that. deutsche bank -- credit swiss lost $8 billion. i think the market is asking questions later, but we've seen, coming out of covid, remember how the banks lagged when there was a little bit of an overhang with what's going on in main street? i do think the dynamic around confidence and banking deposits is something that -- social media. deutsche bank was alleging it was social media that was stirring up the pot on this. that is crazy. >> they were deemed an additional tier two subordinated bond early, which in another time that might have been perceived as a very different

thing. might have been, okay, they're going raise some money. but in that environment, that's a terrible thing to say, guy. but between social media, this -- you saw the -- this feels like we have been through this before. >> @ç >> familiar. >> yeah. i feel extraordinarily bad for deutsche bank. i'm sorry that social media the root cause of their problems, but if it's in fact as good as they think it is, maybe they should have announced a stock buyback and say, guess what we're going to do? but they didn't do that. it's easy to blame certain things. the problems at deutsche bank, we were talking about that years ago. again, unravel their derivative book, and i'll use the term. there's a powder keg there for sure. to tim's point, courtney's point, steve as point, there's more chapters left. whether it's deutsche bank, i have no idea. but given the move in the bond market, i'm telling you, rates going higher, they're equally

offsides with this precipitous move over the[çsz■ last couple . >> meantime the fed is out with new bank balance data from the week silicon valley bank collapsed. steve has all the details. stooe, what did you see? >> deposits at u.s. banks, melissa before and after the failure of signature bank fell by more than $100 million for the biggest weekly exodus and a percentage basis since the financial crisis. deposits in all u.s. banks remained steady at $3.3 trillion on another seasonal adjusted basis deposited at large banks, the 25 largest in the country. notice this does not include what happened with silicon valley bank because if those deposits moved to a bigger bank it would be inside this number some that rose to $119 billion from the $2.108 trillion.

the report covers the days just before and just after the failure of svb. failures ignited fears among uninsured depositors. quote, deposits are safe has been enough to stop the flight. deposits already had been on, you know, large and small banks, they had been leaving in part because they have been slow to raise deposit rates. meanwhile, the financial stability committee met. they said some have come under stress, but the banking industry overall remains strong and resilient. >> all right, steve, i'm curious, when is the next batch of dada on this out? every two weeks or so? >> no, it's every week, it's just a week lag. so yesterday we got the statement of the fed's balance sheet. that's current as of this past wednesday. that comes out on thursday.

but on friday we get a week lag on the banking data. and by the way, i should mention, melissa, there were a lot of footnotes in this data. look like there were issues relative to collecting it. so take it with a grain of salt, but at this time idea of what happened overall makes sense. the magnitude might be plus or mains minus in terms of the actual magnitude, but you the idea money left smaller banks and went into larger banks is probably the right call. >> thanks, steve. we were talk about rate volatility. how far the ten-year has fallen since that time, actually, and so at the moment there was a question as to whether or not those deposits would stick or be swept into treasury, but now maybe the competition is less between the actual department and the treasury. >> yeah, all based on moves we're seeing in interest rates. and i will tell you, though, and

i think steve would have said this and agree -- everything we're seeing over the last couple week, that's why the fed was set up in the first place to be able to come in and step into situations like this. they're doing everything they're supposed to be doing, and the system is working like it's supposed to be working. the problem is, obviously, you know, everything leading up to this has created some of the problems we're seeing. just is my opinion -- i think it's foolish to think we're through this. many chapters to be written. >> steving, did you get into the regionals? you had trades for first republic and free corps briefly, i believe. >> i went into the wells analyst got me into first horizons with his upgrade today, so stock trades around $16, and they're looking for that takeout. td bank still taking them out, will stand at $25. i got pull into the that one. we'll see how short-term that trade lasts.

>> coming up, buyer's the remorse for apple. remorse for apple. shares posting highest close you know coach k, retirement looks good on you. who needs championships when you can look at birds? uh, coach, i'm looking at a goat! a hospital bill for $1200 bucks? gaaaaaap! did you say gap? he's talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? aflac! gaaaaaap! aflac! gaaaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac. official partner of march madness.

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>> welcome back to "fast money." apple ceo tim cook video on his account from beijing ahead of the china development forum this weekend. more than 50 global chief executives and chinese officials are expected to attend the conference amid rising tensions between china and the u.s. apple has not confirmed to cnbc if cook is among that group. shares up today, posting their highest since september. the chart master beating a drum for a drop in this tech stop. carter braxton worth of worth charting joins us now. what do you see? >> i don't see what the upside is. this is the face of fear. we put out a note to that effect. what you have of course, and it's good technique, and anyone schooled in the business, so called dmba, cpa, some nice

acronym -- when things are dodgy and you're concerned about the economy, things that are cyclical, you hide, rotate into classic safety names, soap and cereal, soupmakers and detergent makers or go into idiosyncratic growth. we're seeing that in apple. apple is just the recipient of a whole lot of money and rotation as people abandon banks and energy. does that make this a good thing? okay, it's doing better, but look at that chart that's just appeared on the screen. there's a very well defined trend line, and it's bounced off that trend line since -- and did it again. but the here and now is not particularly interesting. in fact, it gets into that maybe, why bother? consider this -- there's some 46 analysts that cover it. i can only name 20 brokerage

firms. collect it target one year is up 6%? really? that's not inspiring. i just don't think there's any -- okay, this is a great short? not particularly. i don't see the case. if that's the best we can do -- here, look at that chart. what about this says anything other than i'm middle range, i'm wandering. doing better than other things now. but the final chart we have -- this is telling. this is a ratio chart. it depicts apple's relative performance to the xlk, to the tech sector. it's rolled over. apple is actually underperforming other choices one could make within the s&p 500 technology sector. >> carter, i would like to ask you a question about that first chart that you had up, and that is the trend line -- has it broken that trend line? last couple times you thought it

would break then and it bounced. carter, carter, look, it's holding to trend line, going to bounce just like before? >> it undercut ever so slightly. that sort of bulled up on apple, and it's managed to get back above that trend line. in 100 magnification you'll see it understood cut that line, and now it's back above it. >> carter we'll see you shortly in "options action." courtney, where do you stand on apple? he makes a -- >> i think he might have event implied pq3ñ#ó■v 2s7rm& that chart. >> didn't say it because i have been calling out his usage. he's been very heavy lately. >> it says so much. >> but apple. >> people are flocking to this to safety, right, because it has been a great performer for the last decade. there are positives about am. it's a great company. they have a lot of cash on their balance sheet.

but can't justify how great the valuation is. i don't think it justifies 25 types next year as earnings. especially the safety trade. >> i often say to people, don't cut your flowers and keep your weed, and apple is absolutely a flower, but after its run and offensiveness in this market, that's what it's been. i have been for tactical in the market, but with apple -- and people hate me for this -- but i think the stock needs to trade lower for the market to find its proper place. >> cut a flower now? >> well, i mean, look -- >> i'd put knit it in a vase and hand it to my wife. this is a flower to cut. also plenty of weeds to cut. >> use your tractor to cut that flower? >> no, the tractor would stomp the flower. no, i'd take out my sheers and cut it. >> very gently. curious. tim has a tractor. coming up, guy adami thinks

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oi. welcome back to "fast money." gold on the ego, trading above the 2,000 mark. it is up 8% this year. guy, watching your tweets, and you tweet you think this is just the beginning of the move higher. >> hmm. i do, and i think there are other people on this desk that would agree. i think significantly higher. i'll give you a few reasons why. obviously the volatility, i think all roads lead to gold on the back of this. to a certain extent, the case for gold is what we're seeing. bank failures, that's one. number two, everybody might be bullish gold, but i don't think the market is long gold, and that sounds nuanced. it's not intended to be. the hedge funds will start getting long gold, but it will be from significantly higher levels from when thinker systems kicked in. they have not kicked in yet. last year, central banks fought

136 tons of gold. $70 billion worth of gold, most since 1950. gold demand globally over 4,000 tons, the most we've seen since 2011. essentially what's happening here is central banks with hedging their own ineptitude, which i love. if you want to make a bumper sticker, as dan nathan would say, have at it people. >> i'm going to come along gdx, who have underperformed goal. they have lagged the yellow metal, and i'm with guy. i'm with guy for the same reasons. i'll just throw in, it wasn't a 18-month move for me, i think it was an 11-year run on the dollar that largely peaked gold triple top at 2,000. >> if you like gold for all these reasons, if you like gdx, do you like bitcoin?

>> bitcoin i think there's too much regulation, you know, in front of bitcoin. but if you look at gold, all the stats that guy says, they also predicted that 2023 there's going to be less buyers of gold. i don't agree with that. if you look at the reasons why, tim named the dollar. guy named it. central banks are diversifying away from treasuries, from the dollar. that means they're going to buy even more gold. geopolitical concerns. look at what just happened in syria. so you're going to see more and more buyers. i agree with tim. if you're bullish on gold you got to be bullish on the minors. outperformed but are down for the year. >> it is time now for the final trade for this friday. let's go around the horn. guy adami. >> big week next week, mel. so happy you're with us. the be fascinating. amgn, double bottle. >> steve grasso?

>> i said it before -- first horizon. and the analyst, the wells analyst said that stand lon the stock is worth $18, and with td bank, if that pending takeover take place, $25 price target. >> courtney? >> energy infrastructure prices coming down, but i don't think that demand is going down. i think you want to take this as an opportunity. >> tim seymour. >> going miss you next week, mel.

right now on "o.a." aam?'2qxe óbaho j954 three-c areasc flashing,wá÷ warning signs.zc th any incoming storm. plus, dreams ahead. investors seem to be flooding to avoid market turbulence. we'll chart the next move from here coming um. later, lulu lemon