>> it's hard when people say kd8sidelines? >> what happens now is whether that casp■á isi] deployedfá for investing or consumer spending or just moves toward money market fundsé@?ñ( as a general orñi paradigm. >> michael tweeted aboutw3 this. u.s. wealthy saving as well, pandemic accelerated that. 1z>> good to be bac. >>ht■ thanks for watching "powe lunch," everybody. welcomeñi to the closing çó, i'm scott wapner. this make-or-breakt( hour begin with stocks and bonds telling two different i]stories. yields have been fallin!]i] as e recession si2g equities, on the other hand, showing resiliency. here's yourt( scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. green across the board.

in fact, the nasdaq, whiñp touch negative, looks positive now. stockslp have been mostly highe throughout the5a■ day. nasdaq will fall fori] all intes and purposes flat. s&p has been fighting with that 4,000 levels7■ for much of the afternoon. talked about the nasdaq giving back ad gains. yields are higher ñrtoo, but th closely watched yield curve growingñi steeper, yet another sign of where growth might be heading in this economy in the month ahead. our guest, jeffrey gundlach, with us for his first live tv interview following the fed raising them, of course. bdahi% >> hey, scott, nice to be with you again. >> we talked just before where you said probablyr that would be it. you got your 25. you tr5z that's it? >> i think the chancesxd are better than 50/50 that we're doingñr with the rateçóçó hikes% we're going to havee1 to watch that, how the short end of thej qq;áqpáu)y curve has been movin

because it's been so schizophrenic in response to these strains in the banking system and deposit runs. two-year treasury has averaged about 4.4% for the past month, and so it's sort of the context of where the fed is now, but suggests to me that the base case is the fed's not going to be raising it again, and i think is going to be at the core of them pausing because obviously, we've seen financialxdñilp institutions, lending institutions, tighteningok cred conditions for a year now, and obviously, over the pastok few weeks, the signs are they'll be -- they'lle1ñr tighten furth and may tmten even from here. the thing that dominic chu was talking about at the end of the lastw3lp show is pretty real. i think a lot of people fell asleep on their checking accoun( balances, not realizing they were getting such low interest rates while the six-month t-bill was giving you 5% and still

4.5%, and since it's all over the newspapers now and all over news programs, i wouldn't be surprised at all to see that deposits as percen2á of gdp fal are giving away 400 basis points by staying in thelpnbnks. and so,t(r concern. also,t(xd regionalxd banks, a l small business economic headwinds are building. we've been talking about this for a while. and i think the recession is ñi few months. alli=$váu really need is for ras to go higher. >> you seem to be suggesting, i think, and ñiplease, you correc me if i'm wrong,çó that it's either/or for the fed. it's either you fightçó inflati, or you -- you're going to haveça problemt(t(t( with financial lp

stability, whereas, let's sayt( christine la/a&de, for example, ecb president, suggested that you could do both. one doesn't sacrifice the otherá you have enough tools in theñr inflation, and if there are credit financial stability issues, that you could fight those as well at the same time. do you disagree with that? >> strongly. strongly disagree with that. you can't have it both ways. you can't have your cake and eat so, we're hearing a lot abouté@ the financial system sounds and all that, but you know, in the united states, we have such a different movement in the bank sector over the past, i'mq talking back 20 years, really, or at leastjffá to 2005. where the u.s. banks, if you look at bank of america, )up wet all the way back to a tie or nearly to a tie back in 2005/2006. jpmorgan, waye1 above the highs during the global financial crisis. wells fargo, sam%■(fád buz?h you look at credit suisse

and they never recoveredñi from the globalñr financiale1 crisis. r still down, like,q 90% the whole time for th'y past fe years, and that's the same chart pattern that we see ont( societ. they're allq c-/9■ from their highs, credit suisse now basically 100%, but deutsche bank, ok90%, sg, 85%, and now q■ rates, so it seems to be that there's obvious financial fragility in europe and the united states is recession, and we've seen what's happened to the financial system really was too slow. we talked about this a year ago. you remember paint or get off the ladder judge, and the fed should have+■ raised rates much faster. instead, inflation came, and it's not really the fed raising rates that caused these huge losses in ltus treasur at svb. it's the fact that think didn't

raise rates. i think if they had raised rate been less on the long bond, bows the long bond wasuf forced towì% price in inflationñr itselfxd because the fed wasn't fighting it. if the fed's going to fig&é■ inflation, then there's going to be difficulties in the economy, and in fact, that's their stated goal.fá remember, i think it waslp clov lang in the "rocky" series, who pthat's whatok jay powellt( pred last fall, y deliver on thatn05%q%=99 >> the market is suggestifn you have a 50% chance of a may hike. you're saying, it seems to me, thatlp if they qgo, if they go again, we risk more problems within the system, be it the banks, some worry about commercial real estate, but overall, that they are goingt( q issues within the economy if they continue on this path like they

q■ they are. >> if they continue on thisfár path, the gap between what you can get -vz t-bills andt( what can get in the banking system will grow, and it will kind of r counterproductivelyt( cause to shrink -- rate shrinkage of liquidity in the bankingxd syst and maybe some more problems with unrealizedytjuáqáy the markets understandably a little bit happier in theçó pas ten days or so is the long ratei have come down. they've come down pretty w3 significantly, so the losses on long-term treasuriese1t( have contracted. not today. p r(t&háhp &hc% átá and so, some of thesefá issueste being helped by long interest rates having fallen. if they reverse back up again, which i'm sort of suspicious that they will at the long end, they just seem too low. treasury juste1t( can't breakthh 337 onq a closing basis and

sometimes does it overnight or something but can't get through on a closing basis, and that is a shelf of resistance. it goes back for'c■ quite some time. i've been owning treasuries as a hedge toi] credit, and i contin and i would continue in that ore towards 3.90 or so on the ten-year from the level that we arexd today, which is aboutçóçóçóq 3.5%. >> so, i mean, would some say, look, inflation is obviously still bad, and i know youlp poi to a direct cause and result of sto then goin" too fast, which isx the bulk of its issues. there are those who would say it was more mismanagementxd than anything else. >> lpñiqactually, i think -- i they were victims of their own success. they had the bad lucka5■ ofr a deluge of deposits coming in

because of the distortions in the economy in 2021ñi mh!n ther was no interest rates. and so, what a.m÷ you going to á do?xd t of a yield, and yield was zero on short-term securities. so, some people say svbxd shoul have hedged, but that's not really a thing. you can'tzv■ buy treasuries and hedge out their interest rate risk and earn greater than the t billt( deal. it's justñi bond=ñ manth. you can't doñr it. and if you put hedges qon, you have to mark those to market, so you have a mismatch from an accounting perspective.ñ'i if they had gotfel all the deposits in, orjf if theyok gotm in now likeñr might be happenin with some of the money center banks, it's a pretty easyñiokçóo earn carry if you're a bank paying out 25 barwjko■çó pointsn your securities, you can buy t-bills yielding ñxic4.5%. they're matched. that's pretty good for the money center. obviously, this is an uneven

stressñi on the system at the present time. >> i mean, i know we're sitting here talking about(#v the possibility of more hikes.lp you, in fact, thing that we'reññ going to see cuts. you tweeted, "the fed will be #% cutting substantially soon." what does substantially mean in your mind, and how many times will they cut this year, do you think? >> a couple of times, i think, and it's -- i think when i wrote that tweet, we were kind of in going to goe1 down çónext, and was consistent with the two-year treasury dropping 150 basis points from its l it's relaxed somewhat, but still down añhk lot. the two-year treasury wasxd at 5.10% and now it's at 4%, so it's still a big drop. i think that the fed is not going to raise interestçóox/xñi unless for somefáe1 reason theñ two-year treasury rate starts to go back up. go back up. i don't see it becaus has woken up to thisx

important than it's generally believed. this gap, by the time you get on the two-year treasury, if you want to get that for two years, 4%, and what you're getting at a money center bank is just enormous, and it's going to keep down the pressure, i think, on the two-year, and also that is going to keep the pressure on tv%$t$j*q raising short-term interest rates further. also, the economy is just clearly weak, and i think everybody knowsxdfá that. even the wall street economists that are kind of trained to be looking for green shoots and everything, almost everybodylp realizes there's a recession coming. it's just a question of howr8o o severe it's going to be, and as a bond manager,çó it doesn't ma whether it's raining half an inch an hour, you need an umbrella if it's raining half an inch an hour. if it's not that'c■ bad of a recession, you need an umbrella. if it's raining two inches an hour, you still need an i amxd strongly committed as i' talked about in past appearances, we've been doing it

successfully for about 18 months, when we get back up in long rates, which i expect should happen moderately in the near term, we should buy long-term treasuries because as we'vei] seen, they do act as a ballast against credit markets ave been wobbling a and scott, i wanta5■ to talk ab the messagei] from the sñ"dit markets, because it's a little bit >9jjáeyu■fá and most peoplet have visibility into it. the high-yield bond market is shut down. hig bond issued since march 2nd0 what's happening in the what's happening in the high-yield bo.ep9■ marke spread decompression.e1i]u■ the spread on the junkier stuff has widenedñi prettyxd substanty versus dds, which is the highest quality in the junk bond universe. )p)9 w3 continued instability or really uz watched as they spread isi] a real tell, not justñi th health of the credit system.

it'st( notnb■ looking really goo that's something we're really i would!"ot advocate this before ccc or such types of i]i]securi, because the default rate is going to go up.g ìáhp &hc% standards tighten very substantially. done it again. that leads defauod■ rates in th lower tiers of credit, which is the junk bond market, by about eight months to a year, and we're righti] at that point, an the commissions area5■ gettingg tougher. so, i think you want to be in )nmarket has been generous to p those trades up. markets have been very a5■ range-bound. you showed that chart of theñi p 500 and its battle with 4,000.( time. do you know that the dow jones industrial average, s&p and theó nasdaq, are all basically onxd price, forget about dividend, having zero return the last two years. i think the nasdaq's actually slightly negative. i think one of them is up very

■ó them is almost exactly at zero. no gains in two years. than bonds as we talked about in the past discussions. the past discussions. but we're reallyfá in a trading range too right now. if you look at the i]treasury, it's coiling. it's been going toe1 narrowerxd narrower range. to the inside. è6 of the bankingfá crisis that we justt( exhibited that if we hava recession, it's going to bee1 worse than you would have otherwise thought before?4■e1xd context of what ian shepherdson of pantheon said today. "i'm getting really nervous that an economy i thought waswkitájj to dodge at( recession is at mu greater risk of falling into one. it could be quite severe." he said that on our network earlier this morning0co c2qí=ìc% >> well, i share somet that --q pieces of that t(r i think what would make it really bad is the inflationary response. i think that if we have a

recession against this financiaá system, i think that t8p fed is going to havexdlp to act very dr+m the past few recessions, it's always more spending,ñi more quantitative easing, and quite frankly, they talk about these tools as if they're surgeo(3e o something. theseçó tools are basically quantitative easing and negative interest rates. andt( we've seen the effectçó o that that wee1lp seem to have crossed thelp rubicon. we've done this long enough that it's goingi] to be difficult to and ú looming, and this is real important, is that theñi entitlement programs need to be reformed,j8et it's not our grandchildren's problem anymore1 the social securityé themselves admit they're out of money in nine years$x■ñijf assu recession. and that by 11 years without reforms, we have to cut benefits by 20%. oing toxdñi have a

recession, at least one in the next nine years, probably going to have one in the next nine months, and so social security system's going to run into trouble far faster than nine years from now. more like five 5■xd nspñ and i'm happy to hearñi that there'a growing acknowledgement, at least around thelpq edges of th political population, the politicos, that they realizefá that this is something that needs to be addressed. so, we're getting into the real action period for the next recession that's going to really be a problem, and i think we're going tot( have monetary respons that are quite inflationary. th®2ad// quite inflationary.

side. t$uráháwitter question of the day while we're at it. do you think the fedi] will cut rates this year, asq jeffrey gundlach qdoesqévqáhjjjip r(t&h% headñixd to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter. jeffrey gundlach. you'll always remember buying your first car. but the things that last a lifetime like happiness, love and confidence... you can't buy those. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price, our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. go. go lights. go big city lights. go spotlights. go stadium lights. emerson software helps clean energy become reliable electricity. go “good night." go boldly. emerson.

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you made your thoughts pretty clear nl what you think is going to happen for the economy, what the fed is going to have to do as a result of all that, but what now withçót( risk assets du witnessed in the past few weeks, with the crisis that we had, the way the fed dealt with it, the fact that you do think they're done and they may have to cut coming up? >> i think rightt( now, the best -- thelp optimalc strategy tofáfrd reduce response strengtp there's so much movement, that it's almost impossible to sell on weakness. the market just goes to a mine shaft type of design, and that's true in the credit markets, and i think it's true in other risk assets as well. the move index, which is the volatilityt( index for treasury bonds, is really elevated, andt remains t(elevated. it went to the highest level in

many years during this banking situation, but it still, as of right now, even though it's relaxed a little bit, it's still higher than it was atht■ its pe in marcht( of 2020 with the fro end of thefá economic lockdown, and that's suggestive todrd■ met further volatilityt( ahead. and when i say volatility, it usually means down. so, we're in a hiatus here,v we have some lower interest and webqave st the equity market, whichi] i ev talked about that two weeks ago, scott. we were right in the middle of bank failures. i saih i'm not really worried about the stock market or the volatility, and here we are hovering still at aboutcxd 4,00. i think stocks going upó[■ 4,20r 4,300 is once again an opportunity to reduce u■risk, a that would go6z■ along with éz/o reduce lower tiers ofñi5a■ cred

risk. i'm really negative on lowerfá credit quality t!hkñr loans, because -- andxd we talked abou the credit conditions being tighter,xdçóxdçó and rates are y much hg@er, and they reset quarterly, and soxd they're goi the bank loan ccc market to no default, which is a totally j"3■ implausible assumption. so, obviously, the market is looking for a pretty elevated default rate. when you start having defaultsç in the lower tiers of the credit system, it's very unlikely that you're going to be seeing substantial gains in other risk assets. they kind of drag everything lower, and it becomes tremendous competition. remember that junk bonds, even though they're low-credit for a fixed income portfolio, they're senior in the capital structure to equity, and so if junk bonds are going to have a problem, i think you need to be battened down in terms of risk. the good news is that there is a

that the storm's at least the first wave of the storm seems to have passed. >>fá and you don't think -- forgive me for interrupting -- but you don't think if youw3 ge to 4,200 or 4,300 on the s&p -- and you said the storm has passed -- youjfi] don't think t fed is going tolp say, "see? we can do it.xd we can keep going. the stock market is fine. the st@)conomy is still okay. we put outxd a fire andq did it relatively quickly,ñi and if there's another flare-up, we'll just do it again." >> they may feel that ñiway, bu it's a waysñr to the next meeti, and we have a couple of employment reports coming out. i think the next meetingçó is m 3rd. there probably ist( no employme report, because that would be on a wednesday. there's goingt( to be some economic data. the way things are going,e1e1 i expectñát economic data to be &] %9 the fed's going to feeleq$sr)q pulled this off, because the

economy is -- has been deteriorating for quite some q time. i don't think it's very logical to assume2tjat trend's going to continue. i just don't think -- i just don't think the fedqçóxd -- i t the fed kind of halfheartedly raised rates.t(e1 it ñiremiqzwz of the old story i tell about the guy who swam across thee1 englis.áw3 channelt to western new york and saw these amazingq rapids at niagar falls and boasted that he could swim acrossi] it, and he he did jump in, down in the lower gorge of the niagarai] river, and he was seen flailing his arms and legs a little bit, and then they found his dead body six miles down the river. he had to do it because he bragged about it and just wanted to save fa%mtr(t&háhp &hc% i talked about this two weeks ago. that's what it felq ■ like to m where thefá fed wasnb■ at in th press conference last week.çófá so, i don't think they're very braggadocious about -- or highlp

confident in what is notxd plot out there and still remaining outçó in 2024. i think they're going to have to capitulate. >> well, may 3rd, we're going to find t(out, and the good news i we're going to bet( together agn right after that feda5■ decisio. so, i can't wait for that. me, okay? >> i'll do it, judge. always enjoy meeting with you on fed day. i missed it last week, quite frankly. >> yep.xd so did we. but we'll see youi] soon. thanks for the time today. that'sfáqg take a look at the dow. it is off the highs of the day, still having a pretty good day, though. 285. that's where we are. we'llçó call it that anyway. we'llçó call it that anyway. working on power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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bell." just heard from double line's jeffrey gundlach who believes the count months andhvestors should be selling risk assets on strength. joiningr sofi's head of investment that's one of the thingscw3 we e to deal with. hikes are done. recession soon. the fed's going to cut twice. this? >> i do think there's a good chance they're donee1 hiking, because there's ai] lotok of ti between now and i agree with gundlach on that piece. there's a lot that could happen, frankly. i think we've seen the first downturnqw3r downturn in economic data. it's possible that we've plugged this particular hole, right? but i think i've said this before,ñiñi maybe on this progr. it may have been unique circumstances for unique institutions but liquidity is universal, and we're going to continue tofá deal with a liquidity issue,jf especially i the fed stays on this hiking path.

i wasn't completely convicted last week on whether they shoulf i think the responsible thing would have been to not and just wait and see how the data moved. i don't know that 25 basis points really makes that much of confident saying wea2 probably done at five. >> what about the idea of what he said in thefá wayeq$u$at we is introq into you about sellin strength? he doesn't think risk assets are going to do all that bad right now. you go 42 orfá 4,300 on the s&p strength. would you? >>i] absolutely. yeah. aving little rallies along the way. last year,u■ we obviously3w■ sa theñi growth assets really getjt hard. it's possible if we do have a downturn that'sw3 recession-related and not rate-related, that it hits c and you see the dow is negative on theñi year. thee1 s&pnb■ñiñr is up on the y because people have flowed into tech e#zñi growthy stuff. it's possible not everything gets hit the same amount, but i would be selling on strength.

i think it's an opportunity to take some gains if you have any and put them away, wait for the rainy day, and then see what happens.ñi but i think the distinction here is that if we start to get confirmation, and that's the thing, if economicñi data start to weaken, it no longer serves as a warning.çó it serves as confirmation that things aren't goingñi well,qi] (!q recession is already imminent or already here, and assets are going to react differently in that scenario than they would in a late-driven scenario. >> if all this is true, why is ñ why was the marketçó up near 1. last week? if we knowlp all of this, if yo have a resteepening of the curve, which is yet another recession siren blaring in our faces, why is all that happening? >> i think there's a couple things going on, one of which is, crisis averted for the time being. we had this huge fearq that thee would be bankingu/j contagion across the system very, very quickly. we sawñi how quickly some of it

happened withw3 certainly institu2)9m1et we have had crisis averted so far. there's some rally.e/q a lot of that hadi] gottenr really hard as it was going on. the other piece of it is that i think there's an expectation disinflationary. we are going tot( get an inflatn print this friday in pce, but that's in february. more çócpi before the next fed meeting. i think we can probably stay afloat in the equity market if that's the case, because we're sort of waiting, but kewp"in mind financials are the first group to report in earnings one of the first ones to report in that season. so, we cou& sort oft( stay aflot to about mid-april, april 13th, 14th isc when that starts to coe out and we begin in earnings season and the rubber hits t(dp road on whether or not companies cut enough already, whether or not financials need to be on and so forth. >> you'rew3 worriedxt q■ earnin are still■ó yet to come.

"halftime" today, i said what gets you more positive? is itt( at the point where you think earnings have troughed? he doesn't think it's happened yet. >> i don't think so either. there's a differencei] between trailing earnings and forward earnings. so, on a trailing earnings perspective, we just hit the peak int( earnings, really in about the third quarter of last year. we just heard about the fourth quarter of last year, which was our first negative quarter since 2020. this would be the seconde1 negative quarter in a row, which is technically ynt earningsl recession. then, i thinkr that. that's what makes me more bullish, and frankly, i've been negative for a while. i'm tired of being e1negative. i would like toñr just sort of t it done, hit the bottom inñ1 earnings, hit some of thosejf contractions and estimates, hit, you know, another drawdown in the equity market,r a little bit, and just get it >> speaking of earnings and where certain parts of the market have gone,ok tech has obviously run away with the show.

so far,çó lizt( ann saunders tw u ujurj forward pe has climbed by 30% since oct/hd)." is that one of the principal areas that you would fade, one of the areas of strp(i that you would agree with those who suggest it's time to lpsell?xd >> i would fade !u■this, yes. so, again, back to, if it's a drawdown that's not rate driven, tech could$[$[$[$[$[$[$[$[$[$[$ comparatively to other d i think cyclicals get hit harder, but i think this run-up in valuations is too much, éogso higher for longer. what if they don't cut three to four times before the end of the year? if we get a-9■xd higher inflati print or if we get inflation that's sticky, you're going to see tech get "ñ hardríhr' that scenario. the other thing is,t( ifñi thisa growth issue, ifok this iscñr a economic-9■xd growth issue, invg z now facing a permanently highera5■ t of capital probably not something that you want to pay a pretty penny for.

so, you want to be careful about i think they've gotten a little ahead ofa5■r >> thanks for being here. liz young of sofi. up next, we're tracking the the close today. kristina partsinevelos is standing by withs7■ that. >> well, we have a new breast cancer drug that is showing promise and that's helping one pharmacy, and the u.s. 95qñó is doing a large crypto exchange and spooking investors. i'll explain all of that next. girls... the chess club has gained an edge on our bake sales. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory. and save us a ton of dough. then let's take back our market share.

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20 go in the close. let's sends7■ it s! kristina partsinevelos for the key stocks to watch as we head through the homeok stretc/. kristina? >> let's talk about theleuz crackdown that continues today. the commodities futures and trade commission filed a complaint against binanceñi for letting americansok trade crypt derivative, whiche1 has caused coinbase to fall5a■ about 8%. this isñi after coinbase fell 1 last week after the s.e.c. issued a notice it plans to file a lawsuitxd against coinbase. the stock is still about 3% is also falling on the news, down 3%. novartis shares are jumping right now, about xd7.5%, 8% aft its breast cancer drug showed initial trial success. the drug cutxd the recurrence o

women5a■ who were diagnosed wit the disease,çó although it has be used in conjunction with a standard endocrine therapy. this will be part of axd unit tt novartis plans to spin offt( in the second half of this year.

let's get the results of our twitter question. we asked, willxháhe fed hike rates this year? the majority of you say, no, they will not. up next, trading techs.

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make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

the one wheráhvárp+e banks pulling. pulling. >> you can hear the bell. out with a gain. s&p ended oute1 positive. nasdaq giving it up right at the end. that does it for us. qgut well, got tig scorecard on wall street, but winners stay late. welcome to closing bell overtime. we're going to talk tow3 robert shiller about the commercial anp residential real estate market ár(q day. ár(q plus we'll have an analyst about the fallout for crypto-related stocks. look at that chart today, following news ofçót(