citizens buys a big part of citizens valley bank. the dow and s&p, all this comes as the recession chorus grows louder. where do we go from here? plus, china's charm offensive, beijing meeting with the host of major u.s. ceos, apple's tim cook among them trying to make

them and the world feel welcome on the mainland. is this a real policy pivot or just a pr spin? and later, lyft riding higher, the company announcing a new ceo just in the last half hour. so we've got an exclusive with david rischer, the incoming head honcho later this hour. welcome, everybody, i'm tyler mathisen in for melissa lee, and this is "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site. on the desk, steve gras sew, karen fineman, welcome, everybody. julie, good to see you. and we begin with a resilient start to the week for the markets. the dow rising for a third consecutive day up about 195 points. the index now within spitting distance. i don't really like that phrase. >> it's too late to worry about that now. >> i said it, there you go. erasing its losses for the month. the s&p also higher with energy and financials leading the way. nasdaq the only major index in the red, but it was off the lows

of the day and only off about a half a percent. the strength coming as bank stocks continue to rebound, money centers and regionals both higher after first citizens finalized a deal to buy the assets of a collapsed silicon valley bank. shares of bank of america, not everyone thinks the strength is going to last. mike wilson in a note today warning that a severe deterioration in earnings will drag markets lower saying we think guidance is looking more and more unrealistic and equity markets are at greater risk of pricing in much lower estimates ahead, so have the markets gotten a little too complacent, maybe ahead of themselves with all the risks that are out there. let's talk about that and more, dan, what do you say? >> listen, when you look at the measures of volatility in the stock market, they're saying complacent. if you look at those same measures of bond market volatility in the treasury market, i think they're different. they're speaking to a heightened sense or greater potential of recession at some point this

year. you just mentioned, it seems like we entered this year, and the stock market got off to this great start. i think people had down shifted their recession expectations to a soft or no landing, and i think what's happened with this kind of banking crisis here is it just kind of, you know, accelerated the potential for a weaker economy. we know that credit conditions have tightened here. we know that access to credit is going to be harder, and it's interesting because one of the equity market indices that closed higher today was the russell 2000. we know there's a lot of smaller financial institutions in that, and they got a little bit of a bounce. that has really underperformed over the the last month and a half or so down about 12%. i think that the equity market has probably not gotten the memo yet. i think it's about to do that in a few weeks. >> it does, karen, feel as though the soft landing or no recession crowd has gone a little quieter over the last six weeks or maybe the last two, three months really. >> i don't know, i feel like not that long ago, just pre-svb that it seemed like maybe a soft

landing was doable. i mean, i don't know. i guess clearly this bank thing is a big problem in that even if this is it, and i don't know if it is or isn't, even if this is it, you can't help but think that lending will really be a lot tighter. >> and that is a suppresser. >> that has tightened everything for the financial system and that brings it back to the fed. how much more work -- because the fed had said they have more work to do. if you think that this bank issue, i don't know whether we're calling it a collapse, a crisis whatever the term is du jour, that's done some tightening, to dan's point. that's going to weaken whatever liquidity that's out there. after liquidity comes credit crunch. if you have both, then it's a bigger thing. >> it becomes a worry, julie, doesn't it, not just for -- it becomes a concern not just for the lender, the banks that may

not be as inclined to lend but also for potential borrowers who may be more nervous about taking on an obligation. >> at a higher interest rate by the way. >> yeah, not just consumers, right, but companies too, the willingness to actually borrow is probably starting to soften. we're starting to see some indications that capex is also starting to soften. that has a ripple effect through the rest of the economy. you know, i agree that this shock does provide some deflationary pressure. the problem is it's going to take time for us to really know if that's happened, and i think that this fed is still very focused on being tough on inflation more than being able to anticipate where it's going to go. probably because no one knows where it's going to go. >> let's talk about what's going to come in the next couple of weeks, and that is the beginning of earnings season. we're a few days away from the end of the first quarter. are corporate profits going to go into, quote, a profit recession? >> well, that's mike wilson's

call from morgan stanley. he's been making it for months now. again, i think that what's -- >> eventually he might be right. >> we have seen earnings estimates come down. they come down quarter by quarter, you know, and over the last year or so we never really had that blood letting for 2023 where you take down the out year. you get expectations low enough. we haven't had that yet. one of the things i think is interesting when you think about a lot of the major tech companies, consensus estimates has earnings up high single-digits for 2023. this is a much higher rate environment than we were in for all of 2022. growth is likely to be slower. we have geopolitical headwinds. we still have2íqd inflation reas at very high levels historically even though they've come down a bit. all of those things are going to be headwinds to earnings. at some point it's my view in the next few months or so, we're going to have major tech companies likely guide down. they've been cutting jobs, cutting costs, which is capex and that sort of thing. sooner or later they're going to

actually have to say we're taking the estimates down skpshs if you look at consensus estimates for strategists for s&p 500 price for now, forget earnings, it's up like 17 on friday. we're already up 4% on the year right here, but the next year out, expectations are really high on earnings. >> tech companies, the disconnect is the stock market. when they announce layoffs, the stock actually runs, so it's been rewarded, and then with the latest bank crisis, we've seen people run into tech companies. they have the balance sheets. they have the stability. so does that last or is it a reversion off of that move? >> do the tech companies represent stability and safety? is that what's going on here? >> the metas of the world, google, that is stability. although i think this rotation that has been so strong in i think is starting to go the other way. but i'm not quite as negative as

dan. i feel like -- >> there's no one, there's no one -- >> yeah, i'm like -- you know what i mean, like. >> it's -- you know, i think some of the supply chain issues have abated so that helps on the cost front. the dollar was a very big headwind, and it has round tripped over the last year. so that's helpful a little bit. and i also think it's sort of, you know, we talk about the market as a monolith, but it's not. there's a lot of different flavors. >> and tom, just before you get to julie, on this, even mike wilson who's been, you g>÷know, super bearish on the overall market has said that if the market can navigate through june, he thinks that we've avoided something, but he said that prior to the latest banking crisis. >> yeah, and the one thing is about these big tech names and you call them stability or whatever. and listen, they are stable. they are quality. they have great management. most of them have monopolies. they have these huge balance sheets. they're not dependent on the

debt market. look at the apple, what's happened in the last month or so, you've seen multiple expansion, when you see actually decliing or expecting declining metrics. that's starting to come down. apple's trading at about 26.5 times, this year's expected earnings only expected to grow mid-single-digits. that's probably relative to its own growth. as expensive as it's been in ten years or so. that's one of the disconnects by having too much crowding in some of these names. >> julie, before i bring you back in, i'm going to bring in tony dwyer to kick around these topics and more, talk a little fed as well. tony is chief market strategist at canaccord genuity. >> profit recession, the idea that the country -- the global economy is likely to go into a recession by the time the leaves turn color. >> well, if you look at any of the leading indicators, i'll give you three, tyler, that i talked to on the show before.

any time that the yield curve conversions have hit this percentage, 93% of possible yield curves were converted. i think we talk about that like it's some kind of a mysterious thing. why would a lending institution lend money to lose money when short rates are higher than long rates, that's what happens. that has always led to a recession. in addition, you've got the conference board leading economic indicators have always -- you've had a recession each time they've been at the current level. i went back and looked at anytime you've had a soft landing whether it be 2016, '17, 1995 or '96. the conference board leading economic indicators were nowhere near where they are today, and lastly, now everybody's kind of picking up on it. i think i talked to it last time i was on the show, lending standards were tight going into the banking issue. the fed raised rates in a historic way. the fastest tightening cycle in history into a generationally

leveraged system. of course it was going to break. something's going to break, especially when it's that quick. it can't work that way. so lending standards were already tight, and now they're going to tighten further. so if you put the banking issues up on the shelf behind me and just think about what it means to money, it it's hard to use money when you don't have access to it. >> julie, you want to jump in with a question? >> yeah, i was going to ask, are there any red herrings that you think investors are paying way too much attention to and they should be focusing on something else in order to really ascertain which direction the economy's going? >> that's a great question. i think unemployment is the number one focus. inflation is not the issue anymore. i'm with karen and everybody else. if you're going to go into a recession, looking at inflation behind us, if you look at the rule that some like, some don't, but it seems to have always worked. it's when you have the three-month average of unemployment, if it gets to 50 basis points above the cycle low, which means if you average 3.9% over three months, you're in a recession.

or talking about things, i think it's past tense because we do historical studies. in realtime that's one of the ways you can see, and also the initial rate cut is typically a cell signal, not buy signal. they do it because the unemployment rate is rising, and credit financial conditions have tightened so you're looking for much more than that. and you can see that through a very sharp steepening of the yield curve, not an inversion. >> so let's -- i want to get your explanation for why you say you expect the s&p to test its october lows by mid-summer. and could it go beyond that? >> well, it'd be historically unique not to from two front tyler. the s&p 500 since 1957 when it became a 500 stock index has never made the low. when it's down 19% in the cycle, when it's every been down 19%, it's never made the absolute low

of that bear market prior to a peak in the two-year yield. so that just -- it's literally two and a half weeks ago. so that would mean it would be the first time if october's the low that that would happen, number one. and number two, if we do go into a recession, again, all the data points in that direction. now people are kind of jumping on board with that. if you do go into a recession, the s&p 500 again in the same time frame since 1957 as never made the low before you even enter the recession. it typically happens by 23 weeks in. so that means that, you know, one way or another, we're going to go back to that october low. and that sounds so negative, i know dan does, and a bunch of us are, and that's what happens at the last push lower. you start out with good news is bad news because it means fed's going to be tight. then bad news isñd2■ good news s the fed can take their foot off the throated market. when bad news becomes bad news, that's that push lower that you want to be in a position to attack so our framework is to be

light and tight, light in exposure, in other words have more cash than you would normally have but not get too defensively positioned because it's hard to get really aggressive as the market's slowing if you're already betting that way. >> so if i hear you right, this last move lower is actually going to be good news. am i right? >> that's always the time, we're a year and a half into this, right? i heard somebody on the 4:00 show say that she's been bearish -- it gets old to be bearish for a year. ha heading into a recession, and the market's swooning but that's typically the right time. >> i'm going to hold that light and tight, which has never been used to describe me. by the way, thank you very much for being with us. we're going to trade your thoughts here in just a little bit. julie, your reactions -- what do i do now, julie, with what i've just learned?

>> well, i mean, i think there's a lot to be said for having a little bit of dry powder available to you, but i think what's really important is you need to be very choosy. you need to be very thoughtful about what you're exposed to. you know, we can sit here and say tech is a monolith, but some of these tech businesses, they may have a monopoly. they can still feel earnings declines if the consumer rolls over. i think you have to think about who the end user is. something like health care makes sense. >> we're going to take a pause here and get a news alert on lyft. we've been talking about it earlier this hour. shares are higher after that ride sharing company announced a leadership change, deirdre bosa has the details. >> tyler, shares are higher, although they have come off the after hours high. they were up more than 4%, and this as the cofounders of the ride sharing company, logan green and john zimmer stepped back from the day-to-day

operations. they are handing over the ceo reins to david rischer. he has had management positions at microsoft. for the last decade he's been running a nonprofit. he's going to have to turn around a company that has fallen behind. this is a company that has also been trying to get more profitable over the years. it emerged out of the pandemic weaker than it was before. in terms of market share, uber commands 74%, lyft's market share has fallen to 26% from 38% since the beginning of the pandemic. clearly there is a lot of work to be done here, tyler. we will be talking to mr. rischer in about 15 minutes on your show. >> look forward to that, thank you. let's trade this stock, karen, any thoughts on lyft? >> you know, i thought lyft had sort of been turning the corner, and then that last quarter was so bad, and it was particularly

bad in light of uber really seeming to, you know, have sort of gotten their act together in a big way, and becoming positive and also i think that -- i don't know. i feel like i liked at first lyft being only a ride sharing program and uber was more noisy, other things, freight, delivery, whatever, and that turned out to be the right way to go. >> lift was one of -- you have an acronym. >> i have magic in this little area. >> i do lyft and snap. >> you picked that acronym when you were 14 years old. >> like an eye chart. >> one of the things that i think is interesting, i think there's going to be strategic m&a towards end of this year, and i think names like lyft and snap probably fit that. when you think of this as less than a $3 billion enterprise value, half of their market cap is in cash. and i think the choice of a ceo who's been in the nonprofit for ten years for a company that's never turned a gap profit, that

makes a lot of sense to me. when you think about it. wu think about that rounding error of a number on any sort of potential acquire, 3 billion enterprise value, okay? they still have 25% of north american ride share. they have tons of data. a lot of these autonomous fleets are going to be working in this sort of business model going forward. i think it makes a lot of sense here. to karen's point that was a bad quarter. maybe it was like a kitchen sink. >> the only issue that you have really quick is with uber where you had mentioned before they have 76% market share in the u.s. that's up from 62%. so deirdre mentioned where lyft is now down, they're going in the opposite direction, and uber internationally gets 40% of revenues from overseas. >> yeah. >> so that's a hard thing to kind of start gobbling up the giant when you're fighting. >> clearly got his work cut out for him. meantime, coming up, high

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. crude oil jumping to kick off the week after iraq was forced to halt production of 450 barrels a day in its kurdistan region. a calming in the global banking system adding to oil's gains today. energy stocks coming along for the ride for the most part. slb, hess, target resources, marathon, and halliburton all moving higher, and by significant amounts there. steve, let me start with you. you -- when oil was 120, you said you saw it coming down into the mid-60s. it did. it's bounced, it's a little higher. what do you see next? >> i think this could be the year where you see the actual commodity rally, and you see the energy stocks sell off. so we've had peaks, whether it's a -- >> explain that. >> so you have a large integrated like an exxon mobil or chevron, if you look at the chart, they've all rolled over in anticipation of this runup

where they are very efficient. no one's battling with -- i think it's $40 a barrel, everyone's still making money. no one's saying that they're not efficient in the way they run their business. it was just preloaded now. everyone got so far ahead of the trade, now they have to catch up and reverse it. >> so you could see the actual commodity start to bounce, even though saudi arabia says that the market is over supplied on oil. what i think is going to happen is we are going to replenish the spr. that's going to be a stabilizing force. >> that puts a floor under the price. >> it puts a floor under the price. i don't think we're going to see those days where it's up to 120 anymore, but you could see 70 or 65 to 100, and that could be your range for the year. with all of the energy stocks selling off. >> anyone else want to jump in here? >> yeah, i'll just say this. we talked about in the fall, remember that chevron buyback it was some like ridiculous number, and we were all like what is

this, they say they don't ring the bell at the top. that literally was it. the xle, the etf, and chevron exxon make up 35, 40% something like that. that's when that period started rolling over a little bit. i think it's also interesting that the zero covid thing was an about-face in a short period of time. i think people got kind of excited about that as they thought about demand for the commodity, and it really hasn't happened. when you think about that, i think for like some investors to get their arms around the fact that these things that we universally believe that should happen, sometimes they don't in markets, and i think energy is one of those places you have to be really careful about because like me, i don't understand the inner workings of it, steve just said i'm going to have to go watch the thing again and kind of think about it a little bit. you can always make a good valuation case for the stock. i just never know how they're going to react relative to the commodity. >> we're going to take a quick break hear. coming up, amid shifting political alliances, chinese officials are meeting with u.s. ceos like apple's tim cook. we assure them that business

relationships remain steady as they go. is there more to this charm offensive? and later lyft announcing a new ceo less than an hour ago. we've got an exclusive interview with the incoming chief with the incoming chief ecutive, david ex

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. welcome back to "fast money," everybody. we want to go back to the leadership change over at lyft and deirdre bosa is joining us with the incoming ceo. dierdra. >> i've got david risher here

with me. david, thank you so much for joining me. is this your first day on the job? >> i don't actually start for another couple of weeks. i'm in the honeymoon period, be gentle. >> you have been a board member. what is your first move in a few weeks as ceo of lyft? >> well, i mean, that's a great question. look, i come from the amazon world of customer -- my only real focus in the beginning is make sure we focus 100% on the customer, pick them up in time, drop them off where they want to go and make sure the team is excited about the next chapter. >> you were with amazon more than a decade ago. what makes you the right person for this job, especially since you've been out of wall street, out of the public eye running a nonprofit for the last ten years? >> let's look back real fast, microsoft for a bunch of time. i really learned how to competitive. microsoft was very competitive in the '90s. amazon after that really learned how to focus on the customer, very, very focused and jeff was sincere about that. and the nonprofit world you do more with less. nonprofits have to take a small

amount of money and solve some of the world's big problems. we're going to do that at lyft too. >> what is your first move as ceo? i know you outlined sort of your objectives, but what's the very first thing you do? >> the first thing is get the team excited. you're only as good as your team. that's the bottom line. make sure our customers, our riders, and drivers are feeling like they have a great experience with us. >> how do you do that? do you change the way the app works? do you expand? what what kind of sort of changes within the company itself do you make? >> i think you start by making sure you're priced competitively. at the beginning, if we're not winning or at least matching, i think we've got a problem. >> that sounds like the price wars are going to recontinue, and i wonder, i mean, investors are going to want to see a greater emphasis on profitability, but at the same time, lyft has been losing market share. what is your priority? is it profitability or is it winning back market share? >> yeah, you don't get to choose one of the two of those. >> but you have to. >> not so much. as you drive by, i'm assuming

the economics, every time a person takes a ride, we make a little money, right? so we got to make sure that we get people taking a lot of rides so we can make a lot more money, and then we've got to make sure our cost position is appropriate so over time we can drop that for the bottom line. >> how can you have both of those then if you're trying to cut costs for customers, trying to make it more competitive but also trying to cut costs if, investors and make lyft as a company more efficient? >> stay tuned. that will be once i start. >> let me ask you another question, if you cannot turn the business around, if lyft continues to stay where it is or lose even more market share is merging with another company an option? >> it's not on my mind right now. i think there is a really strong case to be made for a really strong number two. you look at any market that's got a couple of competitors, you want both of them to be strong. >> good position to be number two, do you try to be number one? >> you're lucky if you get

there, your going to start from being a strong number two stwl i know that the cofounders are going to be taking a step back from the day-to-day operations. will you be able to operate independently, or will they still be involved? >> well, no for sure i'll be able to operate independently. they'll be on the board, and like any board member they'll have their nose in but hands off, but they've given me full reins. >> will they still have voting control of the company? >> we're not changing the structure of the company. >> why do you think they chose you for this job? >> you'll have to ask them for that. i do think it's the combination of customer obsession first and then a really strong operating environment. look, over the last 13 years we have built this organization where 21 million kids are reading. that's not easy to do. you can focus on the customer, build great things and also build a great business. >> will you change the way lyft operates in terms of it's always been very focused on ride sharing and always been very focused on north america.

do you have plans to look internationally or go into food delivery like your competitor? >> yeah, i'll answer that kind of carefully. international, let's talk about that another time. certainly focussed on ride share for sure, and graduating off the food delivery guys, i think that's a business model which i understand why they did it during the pandemic, but i think if you put a business model and a customer experience in the same room and pizza boxes in the same car as the people, you might end up having a problem. we're going to look closely at how they're doing it, but that's not going to be our focus. >> if investors take one thing away from this interview, your first before you take over this position, would you say to them that it's efficiency, are you going to get the market efficiency? that's something that they're demanding from a lot of tech companies at the moment. what does that mean to you? >> more efficiency for sure, efficiency for the sake of getting a product, a service that our commerce really love. that's our focus. >> david, thanks for chatting with us. >> i've had a good time, thanks so much. >> we look forward to seeing what you do. >> thank you very much, and mr.

risher thank you for joining us tonight. let's kick it around, julia, let me start with you. it sounded to me as though his key competitive impulse is to compete on price. is that a winner? >> yeah, i mean, it can be a winner, right? and it was a winner at a certain point in time, but you have to think about these two businesses, uber and lyft. we all benefitted as consumers. the fact of the matter the only way the economics of that works is they're funding it endlessly. that's no longer the case. at a certain point, investors want to see profitability. i'm still not sure i understand the ride share business model where it can actually make money if it's only charing me $8 to get from point a to point b. i continue to wonder about this business model overall. >> you're sort of nodding there. that's a good point. i always think it's a race to zero when you try to fight over price. i'm not saying they're going to zero. when i heard that interview,

he's going to need a little time to get up to speed on whatever it is that he's going to do. is it going to be as dierdra said international? is it going to be food delivery? it seems as though he's going to take a look at a lot of things before he makes up his mind, which means that investors are going to take a look at a lot of things before they buy the stock. >> i think he's got -- it's a tough thing how you differentiate yourself in this sort of highly commoditized space. you've got a car service. you've got a leading competitor whose name has become the verb in the space, right? i'm going to uber somewhere. you use that -- he's got an image issue. he's got a price issue that he's got to solve to differentiate himself from the market leader. >> yes, definitely. i also wonder how did this come about, right? how is it that he became the ceo? i think after that last quarter maybe the board decided, all right, we've got to see if we need to change. who else was interviewed for the job. i'm curious how did this all

come about. >> yeah. >> listen, he makes a strong case. in any business in the u.s. here -- we need strong competitors. it's good for consumers. it's good for competition. it's good for innovation. these guys are a much smaller competitor to a behemoth. if they can compete on price a little bit, they can get back on market share. they can maybe find some better efficiencies. find markets where the economics make sense. this how a guy like this succeeds. over the course of my career looking at some of these turn around situations, he's going to have a honeymoon period for a bit. the stock might go lower. it could set up as a good long here. >> am i wrong, but do some of the drivers drive for both companies? >> yeah, i bet a lot of them do. >> just a thought. an apple a day keeps china in business, the latest out of the china development forum and why tim cook doesn't seem to be facing much criticism from the trip.

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welcome back to "fast

money." a slew of headlines over the weekend caught our attention. first, honduras taking a pro-china stance establishing diplomatic ties with beijing at the expense of taiwan. then there's saudi aramco announcing investment deals with china, and alibaba founder jack ma making an appearance in the country after nearly a year abroad. all this as chinese officials look to reassure global execs that the country is open for business. cnbc's eunice yoon has the details from the china development forum. >> reporter: tyler, beijing wants american ceos to hear the message that china welcomes international business. president xi jinping's chief of staff read out a letter from his boss attempting to reassure the foreign audience that president xi is dedicated to an open china. in public, the bosses from apple, qualcomm, pfizer, p&g, and bridge water among others

expressed their support for china's growth. tim cook said apple and china have had a symbiotic relationship, and for the forum couldn't escape worries over the souring u.s./china relationship. the mood among the attendants was very pessimistic over geopolitical concerns, especially between the u.s. and china as well as the uncertain business climate. the due diligence from the minsk group said five of its employees were detained by chinese authorities. >> let's bring in cnbc contributor and long view global's dewardwick mcneil. he is the firm's managing director and senior policy analyst. what do you make of what's been going on in china generally but specifically put in context this china development forum and the presence of u.s. executives there. >> good evening, tyler, thanks for having me.

look, i think broadly speaking, post national people's congress, we're trying to see whether or not xi jinping is going to be able to really focus on security, which we think is what his real focus is while also trying to bring the economy back to some level of stability, and the verdict is still out on whether or not you can do both of those things simultaneously. we respect the china development forum to eunice's point, it's a much more muted affair this year, but it is notable who is in attendance, tyler, and most of the ceos that are there have a real heavy reliance on the chinese market to sell their goods and services or they're really looking to push china forward with the opening and developing of its financial services sector. so wealth and asset managers. and so far most of them seem to think that they can manage the geopolitical risk as well as the potential reputational risk

about being there in china, and i would have to give tim cook, apple's ceo, an a plus on the way he's handled his visit. he's done nothing to dissuade the u.s. from believing that he's going to de-risk his supply chain and look to manufacture some stuff outside of china while in his words continuing that symbiotic relationship that he had with china in the past going into the future. so we will see how this all plays out. it's a dance that both sides know they have to do. >> he's in an amazing position because, number one, he's got a company that derives, i think it's 20% of its revenues from retail sales in china, number one. number two, they are the biggest manufacturer of his flagship product, so he's -- and yet he's running a u.s. company at a time when u.s./china relationships has probably never been this fraught, at least in a

generation. >> yeah, you're right about this, tyler. look, he's been doing all the right things with respect to his chinese custom, visiting stores and taking selfies and all the things that he needs to do to really keep that iphone popping in china the way it is. to your point, it's a delicate balancing act. he is showing what perhaps the china plus one strategy can look like, and so we'll see how it goes in the end, but so far he's managed to walk this tight rope. >> julie, you like you're trying to get my attention. >> what kind of groundwork tim is trying to put down in terms of being able to, you know, drive more with the consumer but also continue to have strong supply chain relationships in china? >> well, i think this is really about looking at where he can get the chinese to help solidify the supply chain in china, but still, he is very intent on de-risking that supply chain as much as possible. india, southeast asia, other

places. so again, what we're seeing, i think, is a strategy here of trying to reassure china while also trying to de-risk. and again, i don't know if it's going to be successful in the long-term, but it certainly seems like his primary play on this visit. >> thank you very much for being with us. always grateful and you provide great insights, thank you very much. let's trade this one. how investable is china? >> it depends on what your time line. i hate to sound cliche on this. but it depends on what your time line is. dan brought it up before, the zero covid policy. everyone thought it was going to be gang busters once they got back at it. we haven't seen that, and it seems as though china can turn the spigot on and off whenever they want. so i don't think it's for the faint of heart to put money into chinese markets right now. i'd rather be with things that have a pseudo dependency on china versus a direct

dependency. >> if i were persuaded that i really wanted to be in china, what's the best way to do it? is it a fund? is it an etf? how would you do it? how would you tell people to do? >> i would go, yes, etf because, i mean, who knows who's the actual target, right? sometimes they just target one particular company to send a message to others, you want to take that risk or not. it's sort of to me like -- >> in other words, if i were to buy a bytedance or a baba or something like that. >> right. >> i'm hung out there if china decides to target them. >> right. >> safe any numbers. >> yes. >> right. >> let's take a quick break. micron earnings are on deck and the chip stock is up nearly 20% this year, but could those gains - double check that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™?

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. micron shares dropping ahead of the chip maker's earnings report tomorrow. one options trader betting the stock could wipe out all its gains for the year within the next couple of months. mike khouw has the action. explain it to us. >> yeah, so micron traded about 1.4 times its average daily

options volume today. implying a move by 6.5% by the end of the week after they report that's slightly larger than the 5.5% the company has averaged over the last eight quarters. the largest single trade was a purchase of 1924, buyer paid 1.45. buyer of those puts is risky. that would be targeting those lows that we saw back in december by may expiration. i for one am hoping this is only a hedge, though, because we own micron in our event fund. >> all right. that is a bearish bet on that company. mike, thank you very much. and for more "options action" be sure to tune in to the full show, that is friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, some

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welcome back to "fast money." commercial real estate stocks taking a hit this year as higher interest rates weigh on borrowing costs.

so what does the office sector pain mean for already stressed banks that hold their loans? diana olick has the data, what can you tell us, di? >> hey, ty, yeah, office is one of the roughest sectors because return to work is, of course, not 100%. most commercial real estate has dropped in value simply because higher interest rates make borrowing costs higher, thereby limiting investors' ability to make deals. fdic insured banks hold the largest shares of cre mortgages at 39% or $1.7 trillion, 13% is in cnbf, but this year and next, there is a huge pipeline of commercial mortgages hitting maturity that need to be refinanced. the big concern, of course, is office. of the $270 billion of bank held cre loans maturing this year, about 80 billion or 30% are on office properties, that's according to trepp. so property owners who need to refi are up against higher borrowing costs and lower property values. one rescue strategy that has been gaining some steam is

office conversion to multifamily, like at this former d.c. office building being converted by philadelphia-based developer post brothers. even they admit, though, it will not save the sector. >> 30% of the office stock in cities in the united states, round numbers, is obsolete, but maybe only 30% of that works as a conversion of the structure to multifamily, so there's a huge amount of office space that's obsolete and doesn't have another use for the building as it's built. >> because of lower property values and the current bank stress, several experts i've spoken with say deal making has essentially ground to a halt and the cnbs market is largely shut down. there is no capital out there for offices. tyler. >> all right, diana, thanks very much. karen, this is a struggling sector. you've got leases coming up, as

she just pointed out. you've got loans that are going to need to be rolled over. that's kind of a perfect negative storm. >> plus rates. >> plus rates going up. >> plus credit contraction. we haven't seen storms like -- even '08 was different than this. cap rates are already so much higher so value are lower, and you put in the work from home, i mean it's really quite a mixture of everything. >> the tenants aren't going to want to come back and rent the same amount of square footage, right? >> i mean, i think i heard a stat that 50% of people are back to actual physical work, and that's probably going to stay a little, you know, static, but there's zero appetite for office. 1 trillion in commercial loans that is resetting. as diana said, banks are not giving out any more loans, and quality of life. so i don't see how this isn't a perfect storm? >> and is it then the next shoe to drop for the banking system.

>> right. so if the big issue is duration mismatch, right, because of this rate move and diana just mentioned it, how much of that commercial real estate debt is on these regional banks balance sheets, right? or what they hold, right, that they have written, i mean, the next thing to happen is default, and we're already starting to see it. if you look at some of these office reits, they look like they are in the worst of any storm. they look like 2008, 2009 stuff. that's sort of the thing, if you that's sort of the thing, if you go back welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help. at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr.

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