tv Mad Money CNBC March 27, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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on the other hand, at least it's a way to handle troubled banks. downgrading this from crisis to jam. that's what happened today when we learned some medium sized outlet named first citizen's bank shares took over the failed silicon valley bank branches. loans and deposits. it's a sweetheart deal. 72 billion in loans at a discount. 90 billion remain in receivership. i think a lot of the silicon valley bank loans are going to turn out to be good ones. no wonder first citizen saw stocks soar nearly 54% today. why was dow down? i'll go into that relationship in a second. is this a solution for a bank run problem? i wish. the reason the deal worked is that the government already owned silicon valley bank after
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taking the stock to zero. this kind of thing can happen in receivership after a bank has already failed because that can omit a lot of risk for the buyer. our system isn't ready for a wave of payers. that's not an ideal solution which brings us back to first republic bank. the one that looks most like silicon valley with a stock that traded as high as $16 and change today then an anemic close. still a 12% value from friday. no bank is likely to step up and buy first republic whole and not in receiveship because it will hurt the quarter. receivers. that's not going to happen. there's no guarantee. well, yes it could, but there's no guarantee knowing that they should hole if things go wrong.
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first republic has to go down before a good yield could be worked out unless they can identify the buyer. i have to tell you i've worked hard on this. i can't come up with a way. that's the bad news. but the good news is the government has plans, just closing, zero bonds, covered stock. find another to buy what's left. if you saw that stock jumped more than 53% when it got this deal. what does this mean for the stock market? it's not easy to reconcile. we know there was a big slowdown in deposits last week with less money moving out of the regionals into the larger safer bank. that's positive. but we know that the outflows start up with any velocity at first republic. maybe the process will start all over again. which brings me to what really matters. decided to raise interest rates by 25 basis points and not 50 as many thought could happen a week before that because there was
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concern about these banking crisis. the fed wants inflation to come down. doesn't want it to come down in the worst possible way, which would be as a result of bank failures. good news is we know there will be other banks like first bank shares that are trying to figure out how much they're trying to make if they get involved in a situation. have your stock double. sell stock. have money come in. it's a virtuous circle. the bad news, it's a similar impact to another rate hike from the feds and not just a quarter point. large venture capital firms in their portfolio companies. first republic's deposit base could be many intrepid. some say sticky. you don't want to be a hero. oh, i'm just going to put my money in there, hope everything does well.
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protected above $250,000 and first republic, their customers are very rich and they have a lot more money than they may have coverage. of course, first republic isn't a sitting duck. it can borrow money from the fed at decent rates. figure out how many are protected by the $250,000 then borrow if the government will let it. i don't sound that worried. while i'm chagrin, i'm more positive than last week. i gave up velocity and the run on the banking system has slowed. gone from pel mel just last wednesday when yellen told congress there was no master plan to save the banks to less worrisome. the regulators are probably getting out of a situation that matters. i think they could have a plan that's going to inspire confidence. there's no news because the positives will get bail out. don't worry. that was what we thought was happening last week when jay powell seemed to indicate, don't
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test us, we'll be there. but he's taking time perhaps to please the boss. no bailouts. even though it's hard to call making depositor whole a bailout when the shareholders and bondholders get wiped out. destroy investments and creditors but if the market's ever going to stop the one step forward, backward nonsense, the fed needs to cut it out with the rate hikes. unfortunately, they won't do that until wage inflation cools. it tends to vanish on its own. less business expansion which the fed can generate with rate hikes. it causes housing and oil demand, causes people to fall behind on their credit cards. that's how you whip inflation now. of course there's another faster but far more dangerous way to arrive at the same outcome. when you get a financial panic and banks start worrying about
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going under. they become a lot more cautious about lending money to you. which results in the same slowdown in business expansion and you get enough gradual rate hikes with the fed. that's why i think this bank crisis or jam if left to its own devices is at least 100 points in tightening. by the way, perhaps the most deflationary thing that could happen. no, i don't want it to be this way. believe me. this is a bad way to beat inflation. and yes, today's shotgun wedding with first citizen shows that some banks are ready to take on the troubled entities after they went down. that was new information from this morning. that matters. i do recognize that the fed didn't tighten by 50 basis points precisely because of the next silicon valley bank style meltdown, which is still very much a real possibility.
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believe it or not, what's good for the banks bad for cap. especially megacap like meta. into thinking you can swap weak balance sheet companies, the bags, for strong, the tech titans. which is why these only last as long as you're far away from earnings season. tech stocks trade on earnings. not balance sheets. this market is incoherent. what's good for the bank is bad for the tech. i don't know. in the end though, we still don't know what's going to happen to first republic. let's cross our fingers. the bottom line. the longer this mini banking crisis drags along, the higher the federal reserve has to take interest rates. other hand, if larger banks fail, the rate hikes could be over. it will get us through the end of the cycle much faster. you'll get there with a lot more
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pain and fright and panic. you go. >> jim. long time viewer, big time fan of the show. >> thank you for calling. >> and my questions are about two reits. a few months back, you had the president vc on. >> yeah. good man. >> towards the end of that interview, you mentioned penn national. and what surprised me about that was penn national, years ago, put their properties into a reit called gop i. >> yes, it did. >> yeah. and what i'm wondering is do you think that vc will make a play to take over gopi? >> vc's had the last couple of
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deals. i like consistent dividend payout. and that's what vc has. penn is to up and down for me these days. let's go to henry in north carolina. henry. >> hey, jim. how's it going? >> henry, it's good. i got my voice today. there's no more venn tril quiz m. what's up? >> hey. my question to you is do you think that game stop is a buy given the first profitable quarter in over two years? >> great question. it is a cult stock. that means there are people who love it no matter what. the fact it's making money regardless of whether the nft, i don't want to get in the way of it. people can take it where they want. it's kind of like bitcoin at 19,000. let's just take it up. hey guys, what else we doing this afternoon? get a haircut? why don't we pick up game stop? it's kind of like that.
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it's not the game i like to play. change the channel. put game stop on. the longer this mini banking crisis goes on, the higher the federal reserve is going to have the take rates. a lot more pain and panic to get to the end of this tightening cycle. days like today. it might be too soon but are there bargains to be had in adjacent names that got punished unfairly? i'm revealing one stock. when you called me in and stubbed me. is this the champ? the kind of stock? i'll give you my take. and chatgpt gets the whole world interested in ai. how about some new names to play? i'm revealing the ones that could be worth watching so stay with cramer.
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when the bank run started a few weeks ago, going down like dominos, every bank stock became suspect. 20% for the month, ouch. including first republic, pac west and western license. i think it's too early to start to bottom fish in even the highest quality regional banks. right now, i say it's too low. especially with the worries
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about first republic have to be put to bed. however, the collateral damage has spread and some of these stocks are just much safer. take charles schwab. the discount broker, more than $7 trillion. when silicon valley bank started imploding, schwab got hit. from march 9th through 13th, this stock plunged from $76 to just under 52 bucks. bounced back to 54 and change. doing worse than the regional bank. etf is like other names. why on earth did a discount broker stock like this because schwab has a bank, too. a bank that brokers cash from the clients. as wall street start searching for banks that looked similar to svb, schwab got in because they didn't take into account the sweep.
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investors are weary of the majority of investments and loans. it has 60% in a security portfolio. they often worry about banks with large unrealized losses. schwab has those, too. as of the end of last year, they had $14 billion losses in mortgage-backed securities in the portfolio. bad ratio. rather than simply holding them to maturity and getting their money back. remember, there's no credit risk here. just where they bought them on the curb. if schwab were to sell at a pinch, that $14 is worse. there's 8 billion in common equity. sounds scary. right? wrong. many people did make that mistake. i think the recent pullback is a buyable dip. you can't analyze charles schwab
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like a regional bank because it's a brokerage. sure on the investing side, but the real killer was its deposit base. they got most of the money through a small amount of customers with an industrial complex. these people all know each other. one of them started worrying about a bank run, they're all worried. there's nothing like schwab. nothing. a consumer focused brokerage. 80% of deposits are fdic insured. the money is uninvested cash from brokerage accounts, not their main source of savings. i think it's ridiculous to worry about a run on schwab. giving "the wall street journal" a very interesting look under the hood and sources of liquidity. i don't want to get into the weeds, but schwab should have about $100 billion of cash flow in th year and they can easily
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raise an $8 billion per month. i wish i owned this bank. this brokerage house. schwab can also tap more than 300 billion in liquidities. meanwhile, these guys had roughly 366 billion deposits at the end of last year. warn bettenger said there would be a sufficient amount of liquidity if 100% of our bank deposits ran out. 100. i think it's incredible. remember, ever since svb went under, they held chunks of the bond holdings. it's not like there's much reason for deposits to leave schwab in the first place. so with the worst case scenario of valuation now the stock is obliterated. in less than three months, the consensus for schwab have been slashed. that does matter.
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488 goes down to 407. so there's some earnings risk, but say you have four. that means the stock's currently trading at 13 times earnings. a huge discount to historical average. remember, this is a pristine franchise. people value this one more than almost all the wall street franchises. schwab hasn't been this cheap since march of 2020 when the covid crash happened and we thought the world was ending. this stock more than tripled. i sense something like this could happen now. it sure doesn't hurt we're seeing a ton of insider buying from the ceo, cfo and schwab's board of directors. bought 50,000 shares a couple of weeks ago. all that said while the bank run worries are bogus, the serious bear case against schwab says earnings power will take a bigger hit if something bad
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happens. the programs tend to be much higher simply using a class of deposits. however, your investments have come way down. i get to see a serious argument that explains why schwab's deposit base could be in danger it would be much less than a typical bank because loan loss would be much lower. in the end, it's insane that charles schwab is trading as though it's some kind of troubled mutual. this is a very popular discount brokerage that can consolidate an industry but it's recent acquisition, there's simply no crisis at schwab and if there's no crisis, the stock's ridiculously cheap down here. at least 14 times earnings. the bottom line, most of the stocks that have sold off hard in response to regional banking crisis deserve to go down because they're regional banks. they're right in bank run blast and still remain that way.
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a big discount brokerage firm with little -- i think it's a steal. right here. in the mid 50s. "mad money" is back after the break. does your portfolio need a champion? see if this stock could help you go for the gold in ways that might surprise. next. and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters." because i think we looked... yes. right. yeah. and i don't think at that time- i think you're the one to tell me that we had the same birthday.
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i count on personalized financial advice from my ameriprise advisor. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. can get us through this banking crisis, i think we may look back on this moment as a tremendous buying opportunity. in the groups that got crushed in the last few weeks, that's why tonight wanted to take a look at a company, john in arizona over a month ago. it's called champion x.
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which is an oil service companies spawned by dover. this stock fell hard this month but that might be where the opportunity comes in. right now, all the stuff's trading like we're heading for a truly severe recession, however, the regional bank in question causes the fed to stop tightening or only hits us with one more one quarter point hike as powell implied, i'm feeling less down beat. the price of oil has recovered from its lows. huge day today, courtesy of chinese demand cutbacks and american production growth. the company provides all sorts of chemistry solutions and highly engineered equipment to help oil and gas to get more fossil fuels out of the ground. if i had an analogy, think of championx as einstein for oil. back before the fracking boom. this one's got an interesting history.
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i like the bloodlines here. championx was found in 2018 and was a company called aprgy then announced a partnership with championx, which is the anymore they stuck with. that merger didn't go through until mid 2020. at one point, plunging to the low single digits. since then, they've made a huge comeback as the fed started tightening aggressively, the stock lost mojo. bounced in between the high teens and low 20s. then we got more optimistic about the inflation situation. back to 33 and change late january. of course, the last didn't realize, we know that. look at anything involving the oil, it's been crushed, including this company, as the fed doubled down the fight
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against inflation. banks started going down like dominos which is why championx has fallen back to 25 and change. it's trading like a bank for heavens sake. that's crazy. ain't no first republic bank. if your company and oil can avoid going back to the 60s for an extended stay, this could be right here. the oil companies need to spend on wells just to keep production at the same levels after years of underinvesting. some say it's been as many as seven years. why go with championx specifically? ever since the merger that created this company closed in 2020, and that was now largely complete. lots of cross selling opportunities. they also had many more services. all geared toward maximizing production of existing wells. that's where the money is. that's exactly what the producers are focused on because they don't want to spend too much drilling new wells if they don't have to. at the same time, like so many
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other facilitators of global warming, championx has an opportunity to go green. at investor day event this month, they talked about a new growth area where they're becoming a new leader. emissions monitoring. all the energy companies want to lower their carbon footprints, but there's not a ton they can do. what they can do is limit the amount of excess emissions that escape from the production sites. that's a huge critter. again, championx helps them monitor the situation. more importantly, unless the global economy goes into a serious tail spin, this is a terrific company. last year, they racked up 24% revenue growth thanks to increased drilling activity and strong pricing power. this from many other players, halliburton, we had a giant position. i'll talk about that stock tomorrow at our 12:00 club meeting. things might get more difficult this year, but the company's still guiding for high revenue
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growth the next three years. by the way, i still find my giants of the oil service. halliburton, schlumberger. but they have their own appeal. offers tons of value added services that help make producer more efficient. plus championx has spent the past three years aggressively cutting costs. really cutting and paying down debt. ♪♪ they've now got a free balance sheet which has allowed the company to start returning capital to its shareholders. last year, management returned 69% to dividends and buyback. this year, they said they'll return at least 60%. they did raise by 13% last month. strong self-confidence. championx has been more generous with their buybacks though. they've authorized a repurchase program. 14% of the company's market cap at the stock's current price. that's enormous. if you want to buy the stock,
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there have been fires. so all these things considered, i like the story very much. i want to thank john in arizona. our viewers are so smart for putting it on our radar and making us open the book on it. there's a big caveat here. you need to be somewhat constructive on energy prices. not back to below the 60s and stay there is. this business will not make its numbers. also, mixed. self-forecast in current quarter out to parties the last investor day. company might have made up for the short-term story. sadly didn't happen. here's the bottom line, if you think we're heading for a world recession thanks to the banking crisis, let's just call it a land mine. you don't want oil services. but if you believe the federal reserve and treasury department can steer us away, then this stock's massive decline like a regional bank over the past few weeks turned out to be a terrific opportunity. jerry in missouri. jerry. >> hey, jim.
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i'm looking forward to tomorrow's monthly meeting. >> you're going to love it. i am throwing a lot at you. stocks, couple of anecdotes. i can't wait. wish it were starting you. what's up? >> one of your 2023 favorites is pretty much been stuck for the last three months. do you still consider enphase energy as one of your top stocks? >> i saw it in the 190s, oh, come on. failing oil stock. enphase is a terrific, multiyear story. i totally like the story and i think right here, down so big from its high, you just got to -- enphase is for me. joe. >> hello, mr. cramer. thank you so much for having me on. >> what's going on? >> i own toyota tacoma pick up truck. they have pretty much you know the best trucks out there.
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now it being at a near 52-week low, is it a buy? >> look, we own ford. for the charitable trust. not going to get you to any other houses of pain. we need to see this group start doing better because it's trading as if we're going into a recession and you can't own these stocks so i think hold off. let's see how ford does when they report soon. that will be the tell. now do you believe the federal reserve and treasury department will steer us away from the outcomes then the massive decline in a stock championx as we didn't know about but john in arizona told us about. buy, buy, buy. more "mad money." ai might not be able to program the perfect portfolio quite yet, but it could help. stocks that might be worth keeping an eye on. and they all have been a tough corner in this market, but something has changed in the way i'm approaching the sector.
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first, people piled into microsoft, which is a major investor in ai and has started integrating chat gpt into its products. nvidia, because as i said, many times, it's their underlying tech stuff that powers everything we see in this space. they're so far ahead of everybody. but now though, two obvious winners, 16%. 15% year-to-date. nvidia surged 81%. now i still like both companies and their stocks, but you're in the exactly getting in at the ground floor anymore. so tonight, i want to give you some additional options. some other ways to play this generative ai story. not with the companies that are creating ai, but with the companies that will be using ai to improve their existing businesses going forward. this is all eye opening stuff, people. you haven't heard this yet. you can think of them as ai collaborators. that makes them sound like bad guys in the next terminator
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reboot. we know who they are though. because last week, nvidia, in its incredible technology conference, gave us a bunch. they have a host of new partners and customers for their ai platforms. basically, they gave us a list of collaborators. of the list from nvidia, the one that jumped right out for me was adobe which was already on our radar screen for ai after we spoke to the ceo. he told us the sheer scale of adobe's user base makes it the perfect place for ai functionality to create value. at last week's nvidia conference, we learned more about what adobe's doing. blowout. they're partnered with nvidia to build a new set of generative models that can be used by creators. remember, they are legion. in a concurrent announcement, they also introduced adobe fire fly and unveiled the beta version of the first model which
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is focusing on generating without manual editing. adobe showed a picture of a summer scene then showed you you can type into fire fly change scene to winter day. and viola. you've got just that. take a look at this. isn't that amazing? i mean, it's a great example of ai making people's lives easier. this could save a team of graphics designers hours or even days. i know people who are actually trying to use the beta. it is so exciting. nvidia also announced a number of partnerships in the world of healthcare. now no one talked about this either. i don't get it. why doesn't this stuff just drop? including intriguing efforts, astrazeneca. specializes in cardiac devices,
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insulin pumps, patient monitoring systems. they're partnered with nvidia to build an ai platform for software to find medical devices. one of the first partnerships would be integrating into medtronic's endoscopy model. which helps doctors to detect polyps. the scan, a realtime ai computing software platform for building medical devices and nvidia igx. an ai hardware platform with a genius colonoscopy system. this is not some pie in the sky. many years from now down the road, now. they think they could see actual stuff from this later this year. medtronic could use it. the stock's been a tough one to own. you know i always care about
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whether something is in the numbers, this stuff is not. it's a reason to open the book again on medtronic. i gave up on it. the other main focus of healthcare is nvidia's conference last week with a $2 trillion discovery and development business. now nvidia spent a great deal of time that helps researchers fine tune and use customer models. put in two major players that you know. amgen and astrazeneca. we know the drug industry has been leaning into ai. remember moderna was able to create covid vaccines so quickly because they were running artificial intelligence models on amazon web services. what nvidia's doing sounds like an even better version. finally, nvidia's working with a couple of stock photo companies. this is interesting because there's a little speculation. getty images and shutter stock. getty's partnering with nvidia
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to develop two generative ai models using nvidia's picasso platform which will allow users to create videos in seconds by type ng the concept they want and it may be able to copyright protection this stuff. it's pretty incredible. shutterstock's partnering with nvidia. remember, you don't need code for this stuff. with the professional software tools available today building a high quality model then used for digital twins. entertainment, gaming purposes. it can be very time consuming but when you bring ai into the equation, the process should be much faster. you go on and to some of the most exciting uses of ai are in the oil industry. last week, nvidia called out partnerships with bmw, using ai
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to make factory operations more efficient. genson long says he does not like waste. that's what they were able to do is get rid of a lot of waste. also working with a variety of chipmakers. it's like the chips are designing themselves. then there's salesforce generative ai. einstein gpt. which has been operating in the background. wow. salesforce is now gaining a lot more information. i think salesforce will treat partners just this morning. actually last night. i feel very confident this charitable trust name can go much higher after this changes they've made. don't get me wrong. i still like the obvious ai winners. i just told you about the great stuff nvidia is in. if you own it, don't trade it as if it were apple, but it's worth looking for the winners from
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artificial intelligence. you could use ai collaborators that are harnessing the power. this is a very low dollar stock. so i want you to be weary, but bottom line. if you believe artificial intelligence is a game changer as i do, you might want to own the companies putting it to work like adobe, medtronic, amgen, shutterstock or many others we've heard about nvidia's unbelievable event just last week. "mad money's" back after the break. coming up, what's on your mind, cramerica? give us a call. the lightning round is storming the nyse, next. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way
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it is time. tomorrow, investing club monthly meeting at noon. i got to burn the midnight oil. get ready for that very, very special. be a part of the club and now it is time for the lightning round. and then lightning round is over. are you ready? start with frank in illinois. frank. >> my question is this. petco. >> i did not like this quarter. i got to tell you also, can i just say i don't like these pe
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deals. i never said get in those. too much debt. go to roberto in florida. >> boo yay, jim. long time member. and i want to say thank you for everything you do for the regular investor. how are you? >> thank you. meeting tomorrow. convening at noon. you're not going to miss it. you promise me. it will be fun. >> from sunny south florida, fort lauderdale. >> listen, i won't take too much of your time. >> this stock is too cheap. it's another one of those highly called cyclicals that i really like from ohio. it's a winner. i think you should buy it. let's go to john in washington.
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john. >> hi, jim. i'm a club member and "mad money" fan. >> yes! >> i paid $45 for mt materials a year ago. >> all right. this is all because people said tesla went out of the way. we're not buying as many raw materials. i think that's very unlikely. i think they do need it. they got a great deal with gm. i'm a buyer. henry in florida. henry. >> hey, how you doing, jim, thanks for taking my call. >> well, thank you. it's fun. what's going on? >> hey, i just wanted to get your thoughts on rbmc. >> within that category, i think that people want to look good, feel good. buy, buy, buy. go to john in new hampshire. john. >> hey, jim. how's it going? >> good. how about you? >> doing good. doing good.
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>> good. >> i just had a question on what you thought about draftkings as a long time investment. >> i was watching like ten, 15 hour infomercial on sunday mornings. kind of entertaining. i think it may have a very good product. i do like it, but i tend to see them as more stable. hi, dick. >> thank you for taking my call. >> of course. what's happening. >> wanted to get your feelings on royal caribbean. >> i saw the action in carnival, so negative. i have to say hard pass. and that, don't buy, and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. coming up, oil ebbs and flows, but what do you do when the energy cohort stops trading together? for starters, stick with cramer.
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commodities. i find it agonizing to be the endless price target cut from the analysts day after day. some taken their price of crude. today, morgan stanley and raymond james tweeted their price target of oils for that reason. oh, boy, these guys really know how to read a chart. they're not necessarily going to be wrong. but i never liked this kind of behavior. it's a little misleading. these analysts have realized they were too bullish on oil at much higher levels and they're trying to cut the price targets ahead of quarters and are foolish. but these are not the same old movements of oil companies in the old days. they've been conserving cash, buying back stocks and offering generous dividends, which prevented them from drilling too aggressive when crude was a lot higher. the company didn't come with discipline. so i think i'd rather be a buyer than seller to get eog because there are some coiled strings right here and i like that. >> pleasure.
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>> why my confidence? because china's economy could be coming back in a big way. more demand for energy. by the way, the russians will have a hard time all over the place at these levels. you need good servicing. even the russians do. the oil service companies are the best technology. they've left russia entirely. plus, a soft landing, beating inflation without causing inflation. i'm not the one that only feels that way. larry williams, the legendary technician, market historian. you can find his indicators at ireallytrade.com. he came to the same conclusions as i did this morning when i was working on the charts. a weekly commitment of trader support which tells you what large speculators, small speculators, probably commercial hedgers are doing with the future contracts. he cares most about the commercial hedgers, producers or consumers. they're the game. wins like the biggest cue for
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them. commercials they own the best. always have. so chart. check this. check the weekly chart of the west texas intermediate crude futures. it's in red down here. look at this. i need you to see how important this is. he points out we have not seen the commercials this bullish since 2016 and by the way, that's the last time they had like a huge run. we had a nice run here but here to run, you wouldn't catch that. we could have a two-year rally. a two-year rally right here. are you looking for that? i am. at the same time, a very steady five and a half year cycle in oil that's repeated over and over again for the past 30 years. wow, i'll take that to the bank. take a look with the projection based for the cycle in blue. that's a nice ratio. six out of six times i repeat oil's experienced a monster rally at this point in the
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cycle. it will happen again just when they're cutting the price targets. got a great track record. mainly though, i think the analyst coverage tends to be misguided because people who were too bullish become bearish at the bottom. just a herd. who was in particularly sanguine when oil was in the 100s. he thinks it would be foolish if people were to turn bearish now. plus, the united states. most people ditched production growth after. that's not enough to get a better economy. that's why i do like the stocks of the oil futures. particularly the ones with a variable dividend. especially on weakness like now. natural gas, more difficult. tougher story. in the end, the hardest part of owning commodity stocks is they tend to trade together. but as we'll explain in our
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monthly investing club meeting tomorrow at noon which i hope you will join, some are simply better and more disciplined than their peers which is why i've been willing to stick with them in anticipation of more days like today to come. sure, not all oil stocks are equal, but business leaders may want to think twice about the charm offensive. bank failures about to take center stage on capitol hill. lawmakers, can they avoid making the mess worse? president biden kicking off his investing in america tour tomorrow. is it also the start of his re-election campaign? with the economic side of that story, all that and more ahead. belly up or buckle up because
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