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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  March 29, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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t's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [theme music] ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche, and these are your headlines sergio returns shares dumped as the swiss lender announces his appointment as ceo ermotti says he'll do what it takes to make the takeover a
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success. it raises its guidance on the auto and industrial phase. alibaba shares talks as the giant will be split into six separate businesses, and the fed's top banking regulator lays into svb saying the bank did a terrible job of managing risk ahead of its collapse. >> a total of $100 billion was scheduled to go out the door that day the bank did not have enough collateral to meet that. well, our top news story today, sergio ermotti will return to the bank beginning april 6th. it made the decision after acquiring credit suisse. there will be a short handover
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period so lots of news coming out of switzerland in the last couple of weeks sergio ermotti will be leading we're seeing stock up, but it must be said all european banks are doing well it's all been quite positive it should be said mr. ermotti should be stepping down as chair. we don't have an opening mark yet, but they did say he will officially step down after the pick space on april 12th now, the incoming ceo says he's focused on satisfying the company's clients and shareholders as well as swiss authorities. >> i'm fully aware that the responsibilities that are coming with this important task and the
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expectations and the -- and i realize we need to work hard for the taxpayers of switzerland so i think you have my word and commitment that together with my team, we will work and do everything that it takes to make thistransaction successfully and to write a very important and successful chapter of ubs's history. >> it was a bit of a surprising turn of events both you and i had spoken to mr. ermotti over the years it is interesting he's decided to come back some think it's going to be a little hob pitiable because he's going to be with these two groups that for so long have been rivals. what do you think the motivation
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was. >> i think this has carefully orchestrated by the figures in the background who perhaps had questions about ralph hamers' ability to execute i think it was gracious. the three of them spoke and they gave each other the appropriate respect. but there were a few giveaways in the opening comments and a few giveaways in the q & a, and i think it came from largely ralph hamers who was willing to respect the board's decision and move aside here. they talk about ralph hamers being there for an integral period it soundes like an announcement that was largely framed around the announcement of the
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chairman, the regulator, and the swiss government perceived sergio ermotti the more important individual for taking this business forward. what's interesting since the announcement, which was not leaked unusually for this kind of story, there was no preflagging by favored media what was going to happen here. congratulations to all of them for keeping a lid on this before all the announcement was made because it did truly come as a market shock here. what i'm seeing is a lot of speculation as to whether this now means that ubs employees should be more nervous about their positions than credit suisse employees and whether this will be a weeding out plan that won't necessarily mean the
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credit suisse people loose their johns and ubs people keep their jobs it will be based on performance by individuals and that ubs bankers at this point also do need to be concerned about what's ahead for them. >> it certainly raises a lot of questions. i think your point whether or notice it was mr. hamers' decision was a good one and done in a gracious manner as well one of the press men asked when he found out he was being put out for this role, he said last monday to your point about what this means for the combined entity, what the shape of this future bank is going to look like, again, they reiterated what the chairman said back at the sunday press conference and they do intend on keeping the investment bank smaller and they'll
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continue along the path of what sergio ermotti did with ubs and they're continue at the expense of the investment bank with no more than 25% of the combined entities there are going to be a lot of very difficult decisions that have to be made and perhaps they deem him to be the person to do it given his nine-year tenure there. >> and yet never miss an opportunity to take advantage of a crisis so this now puts ubs into serious scale when it comes to private banking and wealth management, we know that but maybe this also gives the swiss another opportunity to have a go at private banking and i understand absolutely what you're saying about, you know, we're going to be asset light as a business going forward, but i recall last week there were some
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questions around what will happen with michael klein and the arrangement to effectively spin off that business of credit su suisse i don't think there's some comments yet i don't know that there was a suggestion that that deal needs another look at because it may not be appropriate for the investment bank going forward some of all of a sudden you have a business that has serious scale and the ability to take on the americans finally, a european challenger if you like, in basic investment banking and markets management, and that would be extraordinary and perhaps something as europeans that we might celebrate, but obviously the ink is still not dry on this deal so what exact ly done the morgan stanley veteran of investment banking, what exactly does he want to see out of this new ubs
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>> it also should be said for a long time ermotti worked alongside him. one other thing worth mentioning is the political backlash. again, in this press conference the trio did receive some questions about what the political climate suggests about the future of this deal and there are elections coming up later this year. the public opinion has been one of a lot of anger directed at the management about the way this was conducted, and you have to wonder whether the combined entity can emerge out of this in a stronger position and remain the crown jewel of the financial system or whether it's going to be one of those lingering stories that will forever more taint the credit suisse industry
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as we know it. >> it's been decades as far as the swiss banking is concerned those of us who have a will it'll bit of gray hearair rememr back when there was a failure and now you have a failure the ubs almost itself failed after the 2008 financial crisis. so we've had a succession, very difficult birthing periods for new organizations, and this is another one. perhaps it doesn't get enough international coverage we focus on the banking, but we don't look so much at the anger you can feel palpably on the ground are we heading into a world
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where banks only get bigger because of failures? i think we were told that's something we need to be moving away from after the financial crisis of 2008 we do not want more risk. >> from too big to fail to too big to fail. >> like it very nice. >> thank you very much nice to have the company at the desk. let's turn to our markets on the back of the positive handover of asian stocks overnight. we did see a bit of a bounce in the hong korng sector. alibaba news you can siem it trading nicely in the green picking up with the momentum from the asian section. this is a picture, a big focus on the swiss market. up 0.6%. ftse 100 up 0.4%
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cac 40 up. we will have charlotte on the show later to talk about what's been going on and the dax up 0.33% as well. and the chip maker is up about 0.5%. before we switch to banks, we show you the breakdown of technology retail at the bottom down 1.5 and auto down 0.8% ubs in focus, but all of the banking complexes are doing principle well on the back of a positive handover from the u.s yesterday i'm happy to say i'll be joined around the desk. i want to start with the story of the day
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ubs, credit swees, and mr. ermotti coming back. i see s&p revised your outlook ubs, you have negative and credit suisse you have positive. talk us through the rationale for making that decision. >> clearly it's a weaker entity and a cry to a major company as part of the ubs group that will overall reduce somewhat the credit quality of that group the rating of the company is unchanged. it's only the holding company which actually was put on negative outlook on ubs because that's part of the integration structure in terms of the capital structure. they're going to integrate it and that has obvious
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implications. >> when you think about the european financial system, do you view what happens with credit suisse as a standalone situation or -- >> clearly this is the question of the day i mean actually when we look at our entities in the banking sector, they're very well regulated. they've got very good capital liquidity. actually we don't see much risk of contagion into the regulators, certainly the banking sector as a whole. >> one thing that struck me out of the svb hearings over in the u.s., and this came out of it. svb customers tried to withdraw over 81% of the deposits in two days perhaps it was not this big, but it tells you even if the bank is
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sitting on a good capital and liquidity situation, but the risk of outflows could affect the liquidity crisis how big is that for you the way deposits tend to be a little stickier >> that's the point. obviously banking is a confident sector or krit kachlt actually when we've looked at the banks in europe, actually as you say, we don't see the same dependency on flagging deposits and large corporate deposits as we're seeing in one or two situations in the u.s., so actually -- >> why not why not in europe? >> well because we haven't had -- for instance, we don't have the tech sector in quite the same way, having raised huge amounts of capital and needing to park that until they need to use it in the business, but basically household deposits,
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you nknow, banks lie on that half the bank deposits are from households. >> do you think it's here to say? you've had a double whammy, an idiocara ittee caratic issue. do you see this being a structural lie tighter environment? >> there's two aspects to it, i think. the first is the impact on the banking system and clearly, you know, banks are risky institutions the risk appetite will tighten a bit. but we think they have the capacity to lend and we think they will continue to do that. but obviously being more select irv where they need to be in
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certain sectors. but overall obviously in the right environment, that is, you know -- it's particularly important to note rates will be rising in our view that, of course, is going to have quite a major impact, overall tightening of financing conditions. >> what are you pencilling in? >> so currently in europe we've seen a bit of a pickup in defaults the first quarter of the year so we're currently running at around 2.5% run rate through europe we're expecting that to pick up to about 3.25% it's in line with long-term items. if we vie a stressed company, typically a b minus or c plus company, we view that as sort of
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distressed, then that couldle feed into it. >> something to batch out for. another thing people talk about is the potential financing cliff. there's a lot that is potentially coming through, but does it have to be at higher interest rates is that going to put pressure on the system >> it certainly will over time gradually feed to weakening financial profiles for businesses, and obviously companies that are highly leveraged in the category, are much more skpoised to it, but it's a slow burn everyone saw rising interest rates coming down the hatch and they edged out their debts this will be something that be throughout time. >> what about floating rate debt >> again, a lot of companies hedge that, so, you know, they're somewhat protected but floating rate is more vulnerable. before i let you go, we have seen a repricing of credits.
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where do you think we go in terms of spreads >> if you look at the high yield market, for instance, spreadsing about 5.1% if you look at the index and actually if you think about where yields were, we're back to 2012 levels. yields were about 2.7% then. if you look at recession, typical recession, you'd expect to see higher spreads nearer 10%. i think that sort of captures, youknow, precisely where we ar at the moment. >> so in a recession scenario, potentially we could move to a higher yield. >> absolutely. we're not in that situation right now. >> all right, cool thank you very much for joining me great to have your perspective on all thinks corporate credits in europe. also coming up on "street
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signs," allibaba on a radical structuring. we'll have details in a moment
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signs." simeon has looked at its outlook. the company expects it sales of this year to be significantly above what it had been previously other major chipmakers are up. you can see it's giving a positive boost to tech overall meanwhile byg came in a little higher.
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it's serviced more electric and hybrid vehicles than before and continues to gain market shares. speaking of all chinese stocks, shares in allibaba stocs have surged. the chinese tech giant will split its business into six units with a potential ibo why is it the case that the market is reacting so positively to this news out of alibaba? >> firstly it's the allibaba company. it's lost that nimbleness and innovation and everything it was bought the idea is to spin off the business, unlock the potential
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value, and get more funding. so outside funding will help the growth and perhaps take them to an ipo and put emphasis on the food business, et cetera the second part and why there has been such a strong reaction is really what may lead into this about the chinese regula regulators and the tech sector that's what became exescrutiny it wiped off market caps various companies put together now perhaps we're starting to see signs with this announce money and other things we've seen over the past few weeks that the government is softening, warming up somewhat to the tech sector in china began. >> i thought it also perhaps not coincident tall, and you reported on this a couple of days ago jack ma has re-emerged.
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obviously they've come up with this big news. should that not give investors a sign of confidence that the chinese authorities are looking at shifting their foe does abe from that track down we saw on the track sector and going ahead it should be a more favorable environmental. >> jack ma became the poster child of that scrutiny that happened in china we've seen a number of thins happen over the past few weeks that shows signs certainly of the relaxed scrutiny you've got regulators who have approved more gains for the release in china that's a huge deal because the gaming sector was badly hit by the regulators you've seen a ride hailing app that was forced to delist and had a cybersecurity review and knew a business expansion. you've now seen the return of jack ma and the alibaba
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expansion. that shows it's just relactsing a little bit. >> i know this is a region and a sector that you know inside out, arjun. you can't just talk about the chinese tech sector without taking into consideration some of the geopolitical issues that have arisen over the last couple of years, be it the u.s. restricting the exports of certain chip technology speaking of what does that do to the outlook of some of the chinese technologies if they don't get access to the producers of the dhip makers and equipment? does that not curtail its ability in terms of being big as they were in the past? >> it comes down to a company-by-company basis alibaba's business is shielded tencent similarly has a very strong china business.
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but a lot of these companies are investing cloud computing, ai advancements, which require chips. they're designing chips in-house at the moment. >> it takes years to get to the cutting-edge technology that we've seen. >> and importantly china's not manufacturing these chips. these chips are being manufactured by companies such as samsung and others in taiwan. if they don't have access to the company that makes these chips, they're very reliant on technology it could affect it in the way ai and cloud computing could develop in china right now geo politics has been a headwind for the chinese companies for the past two years and the investors have lived with it, dealt with it, gone on with it. as you look at the areas of cloud computicomputing, they'reg at it. this is the future of their
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business if they're not able to access that technology, that certainly creates a lot of uncertainty going forward for parts of the sector business in china. >> i guess the takeaway is companies more exposed to the chinese consumer are perhaps in a better position to outperform. all right. arjun, thank you very much for the breakdown of what has been happening in china on the back of the alibaba news. meanwhile sam bankman fried has been charged in an alleged attempt to get companies to unfreeze accounts. bankman-fried's lawyers have not responded to questions for comments >> and also coming up on "street signs," a tense day over pension reform plans, but falling numbers take to the streets. we'll have more coming up next
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines shares of ubs jumped after the swiss lender announced its appointment as ceo ermotti says he'll do what it takes to make the takeover a success. >> together with my team we will work and do everything that it takes to make this transaction successfully >> i respectfully agree to change leadership given the current situation that we have. >> he said the bank did a terrible job. >> a total of $100 billion was scheduled to go out the door that day the bank did not have enough collateral to meet that. >> european chipmakers on top of the 600 after infineon raises guidance on the auto and
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industrial phase. the e-commerce giant, alibaba will split into six separate businesses, all of which will have an ipo welcome back to the show let's catch you up on how markets are faring we did have a positive handover from asia overnight. it left wall street with all of the indices there in the red we talk about tech stocks that have done well alibaba leading the gains in the hong kong stock change and because of that we're seeing quite the positive sentiment into the european session as well all are trading in the green there's one stock particularly in focus, and that's ubs it's up 0.9% ftse 100 trading nicely in the
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green. the cac 40 trading up. infineon also with a gain. we talk about commercial real estate the numbers coming out of the german property sector are not that pr promising, so definitel something to keep an eye on. let's turn and talk about ubs. the stock up 2.5 percentage points in about 18 swiss banks so much lower than throughout the course of the week last week, but it does tell me reaction has been positive to the news that the former ceo sergio ermotti will be coming back to head up ubs and replacing the current ceo ralph hamers who had been there since the beginning of 2020. obviously sergio ermotti was the
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ceo for nine years, spearheaded a lot of changes, cut down the bank, reduced the size of its business and perhaps is a template for what's to come over at the combined entity as well that's the perfect for ubs today. let's take a quick look at how credit suisse is trading of course, this is a stock that pretty much is settling around where the acquisition prices were not up a slight bit higher. there are perhaps some arbitrage dealers taking place given where credit suisse is trading, it's implieg it likely will that's the messaging we're getting from both of those banks. as for the broader european banking sec torque again, a lot of green on the board. this isn't just a ubs story, but, of course, the handover from u.s. banks as well as stabilization coming from banks.
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2 percentage points up is where we're at. switching over to currency, we very the euro trading slightly weaker versus the u.s. dollar, so 108.30, so down about a tenth of a percentage point. the pound trading weaker in terms of u.s. futures, this is the picture for u.s. markets, so looking to break away from some of the negativity all of the three majors seen opening up in the green. market attention now switching away from some of the banking issues perhaps toward the inflation numbers and core numbers coming out later this week is going to be the focus there. let me take you back to the
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continents we've been talking a lot the french workers have joined a tenth day of national strikes against the government's reform plan with a disruption in fuel supplies and public transport despite estimates showing a falling number of protesters the french government rejected a union proposal to resolve the dispute. we reiterated the prime minister's offer talk for next week so ten days in a row of strikes, but my understanding is the numbers are slowly starting to whittle down. >> absolutely. it's the tenth day organized by the unions, once again all the french unions all on the same page against raising the pension age from 62 to 64. there was violence and clashes last week. certainly not on the scale we
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saw last week. that doesn't mean this is the end for several reasons. one, there were more young people in these protests yesterday. you see the youth in the streets. that's when things get tougher he's going to double up a little more the fact there were more students and schools being shut down with protesters can be a sign of tough things to come another thing is the unions plan another day of protests on april 6th. again, that's a day where president macron will be in china for an important foreign trip and the unions will meet with the prime minister early next week, and that's a big day because that will be the first time they actually meet to give a presentation of that reform on pension. they've talked many times before the moment the parliamentary process started. it will be an important time will there be a solution they've not said
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the unions say we still need to take away that 64 age and that's really the high point of the conve conversation they are going to talk there could be a solution in the future, but at the moment, this could be just a lull and next week will be very key to see how far this movement might go in the weeks ahead. >> you know, what's interesting is we are now beginning to see some reactions out of companies and businesses because it is becoming disruptive, and we're getting some comments. michael o'leary says airlines are a scandal. he says french flights should be protected during strike action and he's seeking a move for a petition it's having ramifications not just on french companies but
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also on global companies, the likes of ryanair obviously being affected due to some of the strikes taking place within the airline sector as well, something to watch out for there. i want to bring in the head of the economic research department good morning to you. thank you very much for joining us to my mind when i think of the public backlash against these reforms, it feels as though it's stemming from two places number one is the backlash against the reforms themselves people were not endorsing the government's plans to raise the retirement age to begin with, but the second element is the way it was conducted, the fact that president macron pushed it through by executive order why do you think the backlash has been so strong on the part of the french public >> there are three points to that, i would say. one is that we had a period with
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a lot of uncertainty the question is why do the reform now usually with intention reform, it's a long-term adjustment. in that case, people who are supposed to go on retirement in one or two years would have to work longer. i can imagine they're not happy with that. the third point is that -- the more long-term issue is -- when you have a reform of this type, it means that some people will lose, some people will win, and
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usually with this type of concern, people are very conservative they know what they have they don't want to change. that's the point very short issue but you look at long-term growth in france. >> philippe, what do you think is the exit strategy for the government we know the prime minister is going to meet early next week. do you think they might revise this, moving the age from 62 to 64 for the minimum retirement age or is there something they can offer to the unions or take away reform forever? do you think that's a solution or do you think they're going to stick to their guns and what does that mean for the social situation in france? >> there's a need for finding a solution president macron will have to come for now he's left it to the prime minister
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but he'll have to show how things could go. there are ways to limit the social unrest. in that case, it would open a new issue because le pen, the far right lead e could be the next lead over the national assembly we're in a risky road and probably president macron ought to change the situation and to limit the restructure and unrest. >> so what do you think that means for the legacy of emmanuel macron to france, two things, one for reform the backlash means the end of reforms for the rest of his mandate and for the president to say he was going to unify the
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country, give the country reason to not work for the extremes what does that mean for the political future of the country as well? >> that's a real question we currently have in france he has no one behind him to take the lead after him it shows a lot of pressure he cannot reform as he wants to reform, so the risk if the situation under the retirement reform is not limited and didn't improve in the coming weeks, the risk is we'll have some unrest until the end. it could be damaging for france,
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for the european union and as you mentioned for companies working in france. the best way to eliminate the risk of retirement reform and to discuss it is to talk with french citizens. we can't manage this reform because we have to collectively agree to find a way to find a solution that's the only way to go. after that, we'll see how we can reform he wants to make reform on immigration and very important topics if he fails on this reform, he'll fail on others, and that will be a real weakness for france in coming years. >> philippe, i just want to pick up on some comments you said there. the president seems to be standing alone on this
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he doesn't enjoy a majority in the house. do you see any risk of an early general election because the public backlash has gone to such extreme levels what would be the path to that happening if it does happen? >> that is the question. for the moment, he has put it aside, but we'll see that's why it's important to discuss. it's something to avoid. it may be a general election that could arise in the coming months that would be really a problem as he calls it for france. he has to man allege the situation now. it's not on the trading side
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it's on macron's hands to change the future and to avoid some social unrest, you know, in the coming months. >> a big ask as well and something that we are keeping a close eye on philippe, thank you for joining us philippe waechter also coming up on the show, the top banking regulators held a congressional hearing that svb did a, quote, terrible job at managing risk. we'll discuss more after the brank. my health products online our shipping process was painfully slow. then we found shipstation. now we're shipping out orders 5 times faster and thanks to shipstation's discounted rates we're saving a ton. honestly, we couldn't do it without shipstation join over 100,000 online sellers who get ship done with shipstation go to shipstation.com /tv and get 2 months free.
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welcome back to "street signs. the fed's top banking regulator held a congressional hearing and said the silicon valley bank did a terrible job just before it collapsed. he said the way svbmodeled ris was not at all in line with real he said the fed supervisor had warned there were issues with the bank's management in mid-february but said svb did not take appropriate action.
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steve liesman filed this report. >> dramatic new details about how fast and furious events were moving in the final hours of silicon valley bank before it was shut down. michael barr testified to the senate banking committee that on the thursday before it was closed, svb executives told regulators they feared more than double that amount was headed out the door friday morning. >> a total of $100 billion was scheduled to g out the door that day. the bank did not have enough collateral to meet that, and, therefore, they were not actually able to meet their only gages to pay their depositors over the course of the day and they were shut down. >> it created a hyperchallenge now facing bank regulators the fees that could flee the bank as a result of technology and social media that could spread to other banks. it's a problem that regulators at the moment have no answer
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barr had harsh words about the interest bank saying not at all in line with reality supervisors cited problems that were numerous over the years no word or testimony on what the fed board did about it then. another key issue, new rules adopted by the federal reserve in 2019 exempted silicon valley from stress testing for several years but last year they stress tested banks in a year banks were being stressed by surging stresses steve liesman, cn cnbc, business news. the white house's response to the banking turmoil is not over yet he said officials are watching the crisis closely and did not
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rule out potential legislative action. and our top story today in europe, the one we have been talking about for the last couple of hours, ubs has announced sergio ermotti will return to the bank to replace ralph hamers it made the decision with new priorities we're seeing a positive reaction in stock up 1.7 percentage points that the former ceo is now returning and will be ushering this new era, ubs's acquisition of credit suisse of course, there's a huge amount of paperwork that needs to be done a lot of paperwork with swiss regulators and other authorities. the chairman of ubs recently gave a press conference and said mr. ermotti was the right man to do it in light of the new situation that has cropped up. meanwhile the outgoing ceo ralph hamers says that he understood
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why the board made that decision. >> the situation with swiss banking has changed very rapidly over the last two weeks. i understand the need to make the combination of the two largest swiss financial companies a success not only for those companies but also its importance for switzerland i understand that as well. i respect the board's reason to change leadership, given the new priorities we have and you look at the new combined entity, its stakeholders including the country and the financial sector here. >> meanwhile the ubs chairman thanks hamers and said ermotti was the ideal replacement for the next chapter. >> it has created a new reality that imposes new priorities on us it is the board's view that with his unique experience sergio is
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ideally praised to deliver the successful integration that is so essential for both banks, clients, people, and invest ors, and the swiss in general. >> we put that up if you want to take a look at that. at the european markets things are positive heading into the second hour of european trading. all are trading nicely in the green. the swiss index obviously in focus, up 0.8% and u.s. futures opening up in the green as well. s&p down and nasdaq all seen in positive territory despite the negative session yesterday that is it for today's show. i'm umnaertcjoan bcehe "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
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it's been a heck of a move it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here's your top "five@5. we begin with breaking news. ubs bringing back a former ceo we have the highlights in just a moment. also fireworks from capitol hill as those in charge face off with lawmakers over the collapse of banks and after countless delays, apple officially

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