netflix and disney plus just in recent months and we don't have much information but that is an important component to the story. it will take time to roll through but that is part of what is going to drive the interest in the companies an these stocks over the coming quarter and year. >> tim, we have to leave it there. i appreciate it. tim nolan. >> thank you. well that is going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. indeed it does thank you very much. an right now on "fast," remember the titans, the once mighty dow component, intel and the reimagined industrial giant ge, could you trust the rebunds and what does this say about the health of the market overall. and battle of the bulge. jumping into the weight loss space and investors are bidding it up. how long could the obesity drugs slim down and boost bottom

lines. and trade it or fade it. flush with first quarter winners, could they continue those records. in for melissa lee, this is "fast money. on the desk, tim seymour and cart knee garcia and dan nathan and guy adami. also good to see you in person we start with the countdown to the first quarter. just two trading days left in the quarter. boy, it has gone by fast nasdaq leading the day leading the way up nearly 2% it is also the winner so far this year on pace to break a quarter-quarter losing streak. the s&p hoping for a second straight quarter of gains while the dow is down ever so slightly and a look at the biggest gainers. nvidia up more than 80% since the start of the year. meta, tesla, warner brothers, all seeing outside gains and intel jumping more than 7%

today. best day since november. now up nearly 20% so far this year also above its 200-day moving average for the first time in the year dan, you see this as a positive sign, what, not only for intel but for the market more broadly? >> when you see the stretch of rallies broadening out, we've been hearing a lot over the course of the last few months, it was a junk rally and so there was a lot of names that were the hardest hit in 2021 and 2022, outperforming. and we saw that in january so here we are, we've been talking about concentration of mega cap names in tech in particular as a flight to quality or stability while we had this banking crisis. so when you get news like we had overnight, i know you covered it last night, this micron report and then a stock like intel which is somewhat correlated if you over lay the charts, they look similar and valuations are similar and much below multiple and you see it above the moving average for the first time in a

year and breaking out of a range that has been solid for the last six to nine months or so that is showing some broadening out of the rally and to me it is not going to make me chase a name like this or chase semiconductors or the nasdaq, but it is worth noting if you've been embarrassed as i have and you start to figure out how you challenge that at this point in the year. >> courtney, what do you make of the moves in intel and in ge, which is i think its highest in four years, maybe five. >> yeah, these are not names that i thought we would be talking about right now. we're seeing some of the older school names coming back in. but i do agree these are not names that i would jump into. i think they still have a lot of issues when you look at intel, there is a lot of competitor concerns and bringing resources into the u.s. which is going to effect a lot of their capital when you look at them going forward. and i doent think that is gone away necessarily so not jumping into this but i think it is a good sign for the general economy. >> guy, talk to us by the first

quarter and what, if anything, it suggests for quarter number two, quarter number three and four it was a rally that felt to me concentrated in january and then sort of lost a lot of its bite >> it is coming back though. >> come back lately. >> and the outperformance of the nasdaq is something to keep in top of mind. because as long as the nasdaq getting going, it is very hard for the broader market and the form of the s&p to do a back and fill to the down side. that is true what do i make of it people are looking at things and hoping the fed could thread this needle and in the back half of the year they'll be cutting rates. i think if we were to cut rates in the back half the year, it would be for very bad reasons and right before our very eyes although the s&p held the 200 day moving average again, nasdaq never broached the 200-day moving average on the down side. so market looks good technically.

i just think the fundamentals are not in place for this kind of move. >> we're showing a chart there, tim, of the laggards and the dow has been the laggard. why? >> because they are outperforming the market because the mega cap tech stocks in march were the defensive havens. i would say we had great breadth until silicon valley bank. and if you look at industrials, they were outperforming and i think you could make an argument that they will here. i'm going to make an argument that tactically, in a world where fair markets have many phases, i would just say i feel kind of glass half full and sunglasses half empty world that i think we live in and think tactically you'll continue to see, as long as the q's outperform the spies, the market will continue to go higher and that is what we had. if you look at intel, to me it is a broadening of the semiconductor space and after underperforming semis for the last nine months, by 47%, outperformed by 17%.

the semis in march and when they outperforming the s&p, so back to think, i think you're broadening the rally in the semiconductors and i lot of this is also the. >> hgeopolitics for this country that is playing into intel's hands and in terms off allocations and they pulled back and i think the stock has a lot of bad news prices into it. >> dan, what did you learn from the first quarter? >> if we look at what expectations are for q1, s&p earnings, expected to be down 60%. that is the largest quarterly decline since i think q3 of 2020 and this is what we've all been expecting. we thought that numbers just weren't coming down fast enough last year. and it was kind of death by a thousand cuts. so as we go into q1, we'll start off with the banks are there any problem with the

big money center banks as it relates to the stuff with the regionals. it is not to the magnitude of any of the situations over the last month but it might give pause a little bit if you are in the kind of hard landing camp of what might happen if the defaults start to peck up. if unemployment starts to pick up what does it mean for the broader economy and then at that point, i think a lot of investors will start questioning a littlebit about an s&p 500 that is trading about 17 times expected 2023 earnings, which is not that far below the average of last five years and in fact that has it at about 18 and a half times or so so to me, valuations didn't matter when rates were at zero they mattered when we went from zero to four and four and a half%. that was a large part of what we saw the decline in the nasdaq last year. so again, valuations are likely to matter again, especially if we find rates kind of settle at a higher level than people might expect. >> courtney, what is your take

away there the first quarter >> i think the big thing is what is the fed going to do this year and people in january were assuming that the fed would ease because inflation was coming down but then we got that january inflation report that people were worried about and then we have the bank failures that happened which again both of those things have been kind of put to the side. both of those markets were covered because they are seeing inflation is coming down despite january and the bank do seem to be an isolated event but long-term, i don't know if cuts will be as expected even if the fed does halt their hikes, that is different than them getting cut later in the year. >> what is expected in the cuts? soon, like the next meeting? no. >> no. the second half of the year. when the bond markets are pricing in, right. but that is a different scenario than them just pausing and in this environment that could happen and that is to dan's point where valuations are really important so you're talking about the s&p is trading at 17 times this year's earnings but if you look

at the mega cap eight, those are trading in the 20s so you take those out. there is still a lot that is undervalued but it is still your big mega caps which people have been flocking to, i think are going to underperform if we do stay in this higher for loner environment. let's talk more. despite today's rally, investors may want to brace for a hard landing. the research institute finding an ominous downturn in the latest data. lox joins us with the special chart he wants to show us. it is a great to be with you again. you have a chart, a leading index, you're an economic forecaster what does this chart or-we'll put the chart up wack us through it, what does it tell you >> well as you said in the lead y lead-in. it is a hard landing we made a forecast based on those leading indicators of a recession last spring before the

fed started hiking in earnest. on the left-hand side of the chart, you see the index coming down it is a forward looking index and it anticipated the economic cycle outside of your window and that decline across the chart is a recessionary decline it is pronounced and it is pervasive and persistent and what is quite interesting and why i think the frequent -- the high frequency leading indicator is so important today is because the right-hand side of the chart you see the firming at the beginning of the year. january, strong. jobs and we have sales, we've got this economy, i mean you heard no landing talk, right and what i find quite interesting is that it is given up the ghost it was a flash in the pan. the level is coming back down. in order for there to be an end to our hard landing outlook, which would be kind of looking at the bottom of the business

cycle, and in a recession, that indicator really has to make a pronounced pervasive and persistent upturn. we're not there yet. and so that means it is tough for overall stocks i'm not talking specific talks but overall stocks to bottom since the great depression, i'm going back 100 years now, and in all of these recessions that we've had, they've lasted somewhere between two quarters and six quarters stocks typically bottom less than six months before the end of a recession but if there is no end of recession or no bottom in sight, it is still tough going for stocks for the time being. >> without divulging the ingredients of coca-cola that went into that chart, what are the kinds of things that are the constituents that you put together to get this forecast and that chart what are the kinds of things >> sure. well, look, it is about how you

put it together and how you read it when i said pronounced and pervasive and persistent, that is important, that indicator but there is government stata in there. there is soft survey data in there and there is marketing prices in the market is an imperfect leading indicator and it get as head of itself but it rarely misses. so it will participate it wanted to snip out the bottom and when we take it, we dive diversify our risk among the leading indicators, we look at other nonequity related indicators and see if they're moving up, too, that is not happening yet. and so therefore, i just say we are not there yet. >> so, final quick thought, boil it down for me, where -- when does a recession begin, how long does it last or can you get to that legal of granularity based on that chart? >> well, look, i think it is

imminent it is not in a year. it is sooner than that we're seeing a lot of symptoms when you have crisis and when you have the -- going up and when you have -- it is difficult to say this, it doesn't fit with the story, but for six months you've had negative retail sales growth you have the beginnings, i think we're on the front edge of credit crunch, cred contraction. you have the good sector of the economy, manufacturing and construction cycling down hard services don't have to go negative for there to be a recession. so all of those components are there. and we were just saying in the lead-in, hire for longer and that is all happening, too so i would say, look, i'm eager to forecast a recovery, it is just not yet and i would remind everybody that it is very hard to recognize a recession when it is starting the fed didn't pivot in the fall

of '08 until what was it three quarters after the recession began in december of '07 so it -- and then stocks still went down until march of '09 tricking warren buffett. so, i mean, there is a lot of stuff in there >> let's lay this on the table here for whoever wants to jump in and trade this. guy? >> well, it makes fascinating points and what i've said for a while, tyler, the lagging effect of the tightening cycle has not caught up with the market. there is still a lot of money splashing around and making its way through. and bank failures are not bullish and i think we all agree and there is a tightening on the back of that by virtue of the fact that the banks need to do it so i get the lag effect kicking in and banks will tighten, regardless of where rates go, that is not a bullish back drop in my opinion. >> i think what he's also saying is bear markets have some cycles

and that is an elongated cycle we have so many conditions that are different than usual what is the bear market. i mean, we're not even through central bank tightening. i would argue, we haven't even begun seeing the revisions and we're not near a credit crisis and that leads to a liquidity crisis i said bear markets have many cycles, i think we have a glass half full. and i think inflation has peaked and we might get 25 bips more. but i think you could see some of the industrials continuing to outperform i think you could see, we talked about this last night with semiconductors, they should be rallying six to nine months before that cycle has turned where we are in the economy, on some level, i think we can't predict that we shouldn't predict that. i think for those watching this show, there are opportunities right now in some of the sectors and again i'll say this just for silicon valley, gm is not a regional bank. delta is not a regional bank

the charts will catch up to what they did over the last two weeks. >> we'll take a pause here folks and come back. coming up, an earnings alert on rh, the shares are on the move after reporting results. moving not in the upward direction. the conference call is underway. we'll bring you the details straight ahead. and another shocker. shares of ge, hovering near five-year highs with a gain keep coming we'll trade that when one "fast money" returns we'll be right back. then customize a netapp cloud services solution to integrate data management for all your clouds, helping you reduce spend, improve security, control data 24/7 and automatically detect anomalies. in the cloud, at least. netapp makes efficient cloud management possible. cdw makes it powerful. ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life was hiring local talent. if i knew about upwork.

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welcome back to "fast money. we have an earnings alert on rh, the furniture retailers dropping on a top and bottom line miss. st steve listening in on the conference call. >> they missed on the top and bottom line but it also gave weak full year guidance with the ceo gary freedman warning of an uncertain housing market in the coming months. but new factors are also to blame like the recent banking crisis and he said as the fed continues to raise rates, lunchury home sales in particular are down 45% in 2021 according to freedman.

now analysts wanted to see nearly $3.5 billion in revenue for the full year guidance but rh guiding up to $3.1 billion. meanwhile, freedman saying rh's full year 2022 sales were down from the peak pandemic in 2021 and now here are the money quote from his letter to shareholders. quote, data points to business in our sector getting worse before it gets better. now for some good news from freedman he said the company took on $2.5 billion in debt when interest rates were low. plus, cutting a lot of costs like laying off 440 employees. now this call is just getting started. i'll be back with any updates but shares are down about 4% right now. >> thank you very much. courtney, you confided you're moving into a new house soon. >> i am, yes >> houses are hard to find right now. >> yes, they are. >> if houses slows, could this company make progress? are you going shopping >> this is a tough thing i've been optimistic on housing because even though there is a

problem with housing now that mortgage rates have risen, there is a huge demand out there and there is not enough to go around what is happening is afford ability is a problem now because rates are higher and prices have not come down yet. so what is happening is people are either having to move down thur budgetar use more budget to buy a house. and so i think it is less people who are going to house -- >> so they have less cash left over after the housing transaction to go to rh. >> yeah. i would maybe scraph late a little bit to home depot, if we look at their guidance a few weeks ago and how the stock has acted and the consensus estimates, i'm looking at down 5% in earnings this year and flat sales and it is trading at a market multiple this thing could rally or decline back toward the lows that we saw in the fall. that is another 10% or so. and again, that is going to be, if we start to see declines of some of the peers or the names that you would extrapolate to,

this is an off cycle name and you could see estimates coming down and to me rh is not that interesting. i would scraph late more to home depot and lows and we heard from both of them and it wasn't great. >> and rh, he's not interested. >> a great restoration hardware in merchaadison, new jersey i'm just letting you know. >> you walk in and there is guy. >> that is funny you should say that doesn't mean you should buy the stock. >> you do go there and find a lot of husbands on the couches. >> who hasn't ben there. >> so inventory seems to be in line it is up 9.2% year-over-year and that is negative 14.5% year-over-year and margs were 16.5% and they were 25% same quarter last year and they're guiding lower for the year soo although on a multiple

basis, you look at that snapshot it looks cheap, but does it get cheaper or more expensive. >> it is getting more expensive. and actually, i think it played itself a month ago, when the stock was down 40% going into the numbers. so it traded up to 18.5 times and it is probably 17.5, 16 times at this point. i think the margin issues are very important because this is a company that said they were going to defend the margins and defend the price points. at one point at the peak when people were nervous, the shortages on the stock as warn 16%, 17% it is come into 8. i think this is a concern. i think shorts are going after this thing again short interest has come down even though the stock has pulled back a lot i don't think you need to chase it i have a small position and i hope to get it lower. >> there is more "fast" to come. and here is what is coming up next. >> a ge gem. shares nearing five-year highs but should you chase the blue

chip surge the traders debate, next. plus, throw it in the bank ahandful of retail stocks checking out with some nice size gains. should you stick with the w winns p tseeroruthe names back on the shelf you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq site in market square. in overall sa. ameriprise financial. - double check that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org.

welcome back to "fast money. general electric, ge, touching the highest level in five years before closing up around 1%. stock on a tear since the start of the year. up 44% best performing s&p 500 industrial, far outpacing 3m and

honeywell. tim, you flagged this move do you think it has come too far, too quickly. >> i think they priced in a lot of news. and they spun off the health care business and they're spinning off ge aerospace which will generate $7.5 billion in free cash flow so i some of the d dynamics are exciting. the sum of the parts is what people are doing here. and be trading at $100 -- or $94 at the close is down from $263 split adjusted you've been destroyed. and it was the ultimate economic bell weather so i'm going to say, we priced in a lot of great news in terms of the some of the parts and valuation. if you're long ge, what is interesting after this kind of a move and i would throw there to my option guy dan that doesn't want anything to do with the ge ko conversation, after three to six months it is not going to get away you've had a great run and take

some profit. >> and what is left for ge if they get rid of health care and aviation. >> people are gearing themselves up for that. and we had a conversation about spinoffs last night and how sometimes there are hidden gems. but to tim's point, this is a 23-year down trend this stock topped out in april of 2000, north of 300 and since that point a long duration it is a series of lower highs and lower lows and we're just doing that right now albeit if you're short the name, it is painful but nothing has changed. >> i'm the great crippler of stocks for company that i went to work for. when i went to work for ge, if i go somewhere, short that company. okay >> time warner. >> i hope not. let's not. i work briefly for disney at "good morning america. >> bang. >> go to fox >> real quickly. >> they have plenty of problems there. >> on the options front. to your point.

>> i love it. >> ge is going to report on april 25th and if you look at the money, the 94, where the stock is trading, that put is $3.5 and 3.5% of the price between now and then and if you think this stock has run too far and too fast, that is a good way to maybe protect your long but make an outright bearish bet over the next month. >> best line i've heard all week that is awesome. coming up, profits slimming down the company behind one weight loss winner is weighing in the details from the healthy return summit is next. and plus a sports betting boom wages nearing the $100 billion mark ou t group be worth a gamble the details when "fast money" returns. 5g network in america? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created equal. so switch to verizon business unlimited today. do you ever worry we'll live forever?

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on markets today stocks rallying across the board. the dow jumping more than 300 points but in percentage term it was a laggard. the s&p climbing 1.5% and the nasdaq up 2% all three indexes on pace to close out march in the green

meantime, noble nordis is jurping as a demand for the weight loss drugs continues to skyrocket. the top brass speaking with our meg tirrell at our healthy returns summit today i was there with her f fascinating interview. meg. >> thank you the weight loss drugs have captured a ton of attention. they said this is the class that investors by far are the most interested in, in all of health care because of the tremendous potential here and it is bringing investors into the space more so than any other therapeutic area cowen estimates this is a $30 billion market in the just the obesity side by 2030 but one thing about the drugs is that you have to keep taking them in order to keep the weight off. and so there are a lot of questions about what do we know about the long-term safety of these medicines. we posed that question to leadership in our healthy returns summit here is what they said

>> so, right now, they said that we are generating is two years, three years, i think is the maximum that we have at the moment and so far we could say that the -- the drugs are well tolerated. there is no safety that we are aware of we continue to monitor this. >> so there are a lot of trials continuing to be ongoing to learn more about that. but most of the tolerability issues are things like nausea and gi side effects and the other major things that people have worried about have not shown up and that continues to be watched closely >> it is interesting, when i was listening to the interview, and the woman who was the head of science there at nova nortis, talked about if you discontinue the drug, how soon and or how rapidly you regain the weight. that was interesting >> yeah. it was something i was curious about and something that we heard about this the medicines as well. i whats curious to know what the studies show on average and what looks like and it is different

for everybody. but they have found people gained back more than they lost with the drugs so that is an incentive that is good for the company. >> this is by no means a -- of novo nortis and viking get into the market. >> and we just got data from them yesterday and drove their stock up quite a bit it was just phase one but it looked pretty positive it looks potentially competitive. they'll have to run larger trials but that was on a drug similar to eli lilly and they also said that they have an oral drug, a pill that they're testing now in phase one so, entering the market, it is going to be a question of does every big company need to be in this space because the opportunity is so large. >> meg tirrell, thank you very much for more, let's bring in jared holt, a health care equity strategist with midduo what does it mean for the weight loss market as a whole very rosie picture painted by

the two execs that meg tirrell spoke to today. >> it is probably the one market that investors continue to talk about as being one that they have confidence in for obvious reasons. the patient population is massive, the drugs are working really well. all of the trial results so far from novo and lilly and some others that are in the fray as well, have also inspired a lot of confidence that this group continues to do well as we move towards the second half of the decade here. >> jared, it is tim. so you talk about the addressable market side for this and the competitive landscape. is lilly, to me, kind of the front-runner it is not because of the development of the drug, but i think from an investment perspective just because of the broader base of their entire pipeline and the eps growth that they're getting. i guess because i feel they're less reliant on this outcome that seems to be very hot and heavy right now. >> think so, tim

lilly has a prominent growth rate in terms of revenue especially compared to the other u.s. pharma stocks i think that is one reason why it held mis multiple it is not in the same ballpark of pfizer, amgen and gilead, et cetera and is it does have a broad based revenue stream aside from the obesity drugs. in the meantime the drugs are getting bigger and bigger as a percentage of revenue so they are in a position where they could likely win either way. so i would agree with that perspective, just given the total totality of their business run. >> jared, it is interesting, obesity is one thing and there are different levels to this as well. what if the insurance companies magically say this game is over and we're not doing it any more. does that punch a whole in this whole thesis >> it is not going to help at all. that is the one negative commentary surrounding the space. once the revenue numbers get

much higher and much more meaningful, it is obvious that it is a target for insurance companies to say, wait a minute. we need to be much more selective about who gets these drugs. but on the other hand, when we're seeing so far, there is some off label use, but a lot of private pay. a lot of people who have money who feel like a month or a year or multiple years, depending on how much they need, they are willing to pay the price out of pocket and i think novo is on the record saying that they feel like in globally there are more than 500 million patients that are eligible or classified as obese. so, even if you take a tiny percentage of that entire pie, and those people pay out of pocket, it is a massive market that is why we've seen numbers troen out at the end of the decade in excess of $30 billion. i've seen some analysts over $50 billion. it is possible but yes, if insurance companies cut back, clearly that is something that the street talks about for the next couple of years. >> for those drugs, jared, what

do they cost per month >> well, i mean, for insurance purposes, you're seeing some of the commercial payers pay about $50 a month. there is other statistics out there that average more than $1,000 a month it depends on what your plan is and if you're paying through insurance or paying privately. but even if your paying privately out of pocket, it is about a thousand or a little bit over a thousand a month and i've seen prices continue to come down but it is a moving target. >> i heard a thousand a month if you pay privately for them jared, great to have you thank you so much. >> you bet thank you. let's trade this opportunity. courtney, what do you think? >> i think long-term, the amarket is huge, i've heard from $30 billion to $60 billion and humora is your largest sale drug and that is at $20 billion a year so that is so much bigger than the largest drug out there but it will take a while to get out

there if we need insurance to cover it i wouldn't just specifically go into novo for that reason. >> it is funny so jared just said about lilly holding that multiple this year in 2023 and consensus for earnings and sales are up 7% but that jumped to about 20% plus in the out-year and when he talked about holding that multiple right now it is trading at about 38 times this year about 28 times next. and so, if that number for some of the drugs, you know what i mean, ends up being toward the higher end, there is better insurance terms and that sort of thing, lilly looks like, it is lower left and upper right, it is held that -- >> and it deserves it, like i boss, wouldn't you say it, tim >> like a boss is one ever my favorite expressions and in lilly's case, they're giving you 20% eps growth and that is what their projected to and that is why there is a multiple twice of what pfizer is and i think they deserve it even

though i'm long pfizer. >> and that means good things are coming for other big therapeutics developers. kevin kelly joins us now with the action explain what you're looking forward to seeing. >> hi, tyler well, yeah, today we saw an amgen, bullish activity. had you about 1.84 amount the times of calls traded that puts. it was on lower volume over the last week but they're reporting earnings over the next month and there has been anticipated 3.3% move into the earnings and most of the volume today and the most active contract is the $245 call and the largest trade was about 125 contracts and somebody paid about $2.30 a share for that so, it is seeing upside continuing into earnings over the next month >> all right kevin, thanks very much. we appreciate your time tonight. and for more "options action,"

tune in friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time i'll be here for that. >> i'll make a special guest appearance >> it is going to be -- it could be the best one ever. >> all right >> if tyler is here, it is my point. >> a couple of retail stocks surging in recent weeks but are the names still worth holding the trader play fade it or trade it and here is one of the creators of the female founder collector. >> i always thought that someone else would notice something we need but what i realize is we have to demand what we need and we have to have a bit of fearlessness about it even if we are scared. whether that is demanding better work environment, or a better pumping environment, or equal pay for the same amount of work and experience no one is going to do this for us we have to be a little bit

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. spring is in the air and the consumer stocks are back lululemon and shopify and mcdonald's pvh are all big winners so far this month. but should you add these names to your shopping cart. what better way to find out than with a little game of -- >> we love games. >> trade it or fade it >> fade it >> i thought -- >> somebody needed to be vocal. >> and my vocals were terrible. >> trade it or fade up first up is lululemon. the stock soaring after earnings but could the gains keep on coming courtney >> i would trade this. the core business is strong. it is clearly not a demand issue here we have a strong balance sheet over $350 million in cash and no long-term outstanding dead err debt and i think they'll expand

nationally and long-term i think it is a good name to be in. >> guy >> i would say the quarter was good and they finally got inventories back together. so they have that under control. but as get toward the 380 level, we failed there in last year and in december. my sense is you fade again and in the short-term, i think you take some properties. >> and when you go into the stores, they are crowded like an apple store. i bought my wife a birthday present there last week. >> does she know is it a surprise >> not any more. i don't know if she's watching the show. >> she's watching the show right now. yeah pvh, the stock rallies yesterday. it is up 6% this month tim? >> i'm going to fade this one. i think the management -- the sentiment coming in here was very negative. i think they struck a decent tone in the outlook and talked about dtc and international. valuation is not so good and i think there are places to

go in retail, it is not pvh. >> they are up 20% and tim makes a great point into expectations into it and that is what caused the pop here the stock gave some of the early gains today. it was up to maybe a new high today. let's see if it fills in the gap. i think pe to growth is looking good especially if the worst is behind them. let's see if it fills in the gap. >> was that a reluctant trade out of you. >> buy everything here people. no, i'm across the board fade it. >> let's go to shopify courtney, your turn. >> i'm going to tad this on the lack of profitability and free cash flow which is a problem for them even though they're growing faster, in the larger margin businesses so i do epn't know w their catalyst will be so i

would fade it. >> dan >> you want to see a gap to profitability and they have not seen that yet and so i would be trading on a pull back if they are moving closer, i think you want to buy this one with both hands. mcdonald's, guy you are big on this one? >> for a long time so i'm trading this sucker every single day people shot against mcdonald's onvaluation since we started the show 16 1/2 years ago it is the wrong way to look at it it is a technology company you did a great hit years ago exhibiting that. >> we don't have time for that but i think you stay long this one. >> you've been a big fan there good for you all right. coming up, a betting break through, sports betting revenue nearing a major milestone but is this trade worth the gamble? we'll debate that and more when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. god, i wish you had been here for the off camera stuff. it was really good. sports betting approaching a major milestone, expecting to past $100 billion up 45% from last year, 2022. that is according to a new report from insider intelligence let's get more now with contessa

brewer hi >> hi, there, tyler. americans will legally wager nearly $140 billion this year on sports bets as said, 45% growth from last year marking the first time we will have surpassed that $100 billion mark. the forecast comes from research provider insider intelligence. the report released today concludes double-digit growth will result in sports betting handle or the total amount wagered exceeding $200 billion in just two more years and sports betting revenue is climbing as well expected to surpass $10 billion for the first time in this year. and the research indicates players are betting more 94% of the time that betting is online massive growth in that arena all of it, though, comes with increasing scrutiny. the american gaming association just announced this week an updating code of ethics where marketing is concerned new prohibitions on marketing around colleges and name, image

likeness deals with amateur and colonel athletes and banning any use of the term risk free advertising in -- risk free in the advertising and all of the aga members, tyler, have pledged to abide by this code. it goes into effect july 1st so is it doesn't effect the partnerships already in place for what you might see with march madness. but you will expect to see those changing as we move forward in the future >> contessa, thank you very much let's trade the various names in this area it is a competitive area fan duel is number one in market share. they're owned by a british company. i think, i can't remember the name. >> if you look at what happened, there has been some rationalization of amongst the players and growth and competing at all costs an the cash burn that doesn't go so well in the environment we're in i have a long position in draft kings and they're talking about the cash burn. it is getting better not enough better.

and this is a tough stock to own in a time when capital is not free and they're not making money. >> we just looked at the chart of fluffer that is the parent i believe of fan duel and it is done very well. >> i like that >> it is done very well. >> of course it has. >> do you like any of the names? >> we'll have to breaden out. las vegas traffic is up in february macau is up 33% year-over-year in february. casinos are killing it wynn resorts trading at $108 and recently at 115. so i think casinos work. >> and i think you justed mentioned wynn up 32% and mgm. do you have a stake in this area >> i final trade should be sports gambling said my husband and i've never done it, because i don't think it is kind of environment is what you want to be in. if you want to be in the space

and the casinos that have a better diversified revenue stream. >> not just sports betting that go into other areas as well. >> folks, we're going to take a pause and come back with some final trades we'll be right back. i love to help people understand the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure that you have all of the financial tools and support to secure your financial future. that means a lot for my community and for every community. asking the right question that means a lot can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. ah, these bills are crazy. she

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn with baseball season starting, what, tomorrow, tim? >> let's go mets there is a team that owns new york so intel, it has been owned in the semi space and we talked about long under-performance, i think you ride this thing higher. >> go mets >> and jp morgan, sold out with the banking news i think you want to take this as an opportunity and they're well positioned before the earnings in a couple of weeks. >> jp morgan. >> and that chart, it held that line like -- like a baas and that valuation is a reasonable price. >> so eli lilly. and then bring it home. >> the monkeys had their davy

jones, well here on cnbc "fast money" we have our own davy jones and it happens to be his birthday so i want to give a birthday shoutout >> come on >> that is right back ithn e house. >>e■e■ cramer. my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing there is always a bull marketok somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money"xd■1 starts now.ñi■ >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you.ñ■ call me or tweet me. when the