to be selling as they are reassessing their risk, right? >> for sure. let's remember, that's what the fed did qe-4, to try to make that market function better back in 2020. so, it absolutely is a sore point in the markets right now >> all right, all the major averages except for the russell 2,000 finishing the day higher the s&p over 40,000. that's going to do it for us "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," markets resuming their rally and closing well in the green, as we count down to the end of the quarter b but it hasn't been a straight upline for stocks, so, could this be the ultimate market for trading? plus, brokerage blues. charles schaub down nearly 33% morgan stanley, hitting them with a downgrade on fears more cash could be heading out the door and billions of unrealized losses are on the books. but could there be more than meets the eye on this wall

street call? and later, magical move for apple? why one pop media analyst thinks the tech giant should buy disney we'll do a little corporate matchmaking of our own this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site full desk here tonight and we are going to start with stocks stretching to the finishing of the quarter with another day of gains. nasdaq again leads the way, closing above the 12,000 mark. first time we've seen that in six weeks. s&p 500 and the dow also inching higher, with the industrials now less than 1% from going positive on the year. and take a look at the nasdaq 100, posting its best close of 2023, and now its highest level since back in august big tech helping those gains names like envid ya, meta, tesla, up 50% each but should you be trading this rally or fading it into the close of the quarter tim? >> well, i think you should be trading it, and i've said on

this show a few times, these guys are probably tired of hearing it, i think this is a greatest trading market we've ever had you remove the fed, you've removed that -- the ham radio and the squelch button got rid of the noise the noise in the market, it was there, but all the moves last year, i'll just say this year, we had a 10% move higher, we're almost 6.5% off that low on the s&p, the nasdaq is up 11% and the lows of the svb crisis so, there's a bull market in your bear market and i think that's part of the story here we've seen it also -- >> we're going to see new lows >> i think the market has to pricing, earnings contraction, the market has to price in credit widening, i think the market has to price liquidity markets. but as we've said for a long time, this is a cycle that does not play out overnight

and i think there are many phases of a bull market that we're going to go through, but there have been many phases, and the market should say right now, it should probably scare people. >> the russell 2,000 small caps, they are flat on the quarter, and i think that's really notable here, when you think about all the things you just mentioned, the cost of money and access to credit and all the sorts of things that could lead to a slowdown in our economy at some point this year the russell 2,000 is telling you a little bit that that is very much on their bin go card, if you invest in small caps, and so -- >> a lot of banks in the russell. and they are down sharply. >> and so does the s&p what i'm saying is, is like, you know, a lot of the stocks in the nasdaq have exposure to the financial sector when i look at the nasdaq and i look at, okay, nvidia up 87%, microsoft up 20%, amazon up 20%,

meta up 75%, that's not particularly sustainable, and that's not suggesting there's any fear in the market but when i look at what's going on in regional banks, the xlf, the russell 2,000, there's fear being priced in there. and move index, i just saw michael talking about the spread between vics and the move, you know, measuring the volatility in the treasury market, so, to me, i think that that stuff is a bit of a mirage. it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. it's not sustainable >> lots more volatile ity in the bond market. so, guy, you could make an argument that when it comes to what's working now, it's safe tech, it's better balance sheet. ark innovation fund went down today. this is not just all tech. >> tim's been on this. as long as the nasdaq, those stocks continue to grind higher, it's harder for the broader market to go down. there is perceived safety in

those names, which i totally get. their balance sheets are juggernauts, but you know, very -- right before our eyes, a lot of those stocks have gotten expensive again. microsoft just got expensive again. i know apple is the greatest company in the history of mankind, it is expensive in this environment. there are a lot of things that don't make sense to me, and below the surface, dan mentioned the move index, this is a 15-year level. last time we saw the move index over the vics at these levels was in '08-09. not making that comparison, just pointing it out. dollar is now backing up that's telling a story so, a lot of things to be concerned about, not least of which, the lag effect of nine months of fed rate hikes hasn't kicked in at all >> so, you're not buying it. are you, karen >> i'm always long, so, i guess, you know -- >> are you adding? >> no, i bought a little bit of uri, which got crushed in the last month, it went from a high, i think maybe down, i don't know, $90, which seemed overdone to me. but i -- i don't know what to

make of this action post the svb crisis it is a big crisis, because of the potential for contagion. so i'm surprised the market has come back as well as it has. i'm really interested to see, what does jpmorgan have to say about this, what do they think is happening in the economy, what's happening in lending? what's happening in credit, which hasn't been the problem, it's only been duration risk and then what do they do with all the deposits and what's going to happen to regional banks what's the business model? hard to know >> and i think they need to talk about the loan market, too, because -- >> yes, yes. >> it's a trillion dollar market that actually will also feature earnings, and i mean downward, because the cost of capital -- everybody says, a lot of these guys locked in at low rates, there's never been a bigger chunk of debt out there and i think it's going to feed through, but no, credit's been fine and credit is fine largely until you have a recession so, it's why everybody wanted

this to play out very quickly, and again, you've got the nasdaq that's actually in a bull market in the middle of a bear market >> i think what the mark is telling you, basically, that we're going to have slower gdp, maybe we'll get a little bit higher unemployment, but then the fed will swoop back in -- >> right >> very decisively, cut rates and glide us into the soft landing. >> they're going to be late. >> but a lot has to go right -- they're not talking about cutting. >> that's the playbook they've used for a long time the difference in this cycle is inflation is still a problem >> right >> and if they go down that road again, if you can start to see it around the surface, inf inflation, which was trending the right way for them, will start trending the other way in a very quick matter of time. and they can't fight both those dragons at once, in my opinion >> you're not of the view that this whole banking crisis and subsequent lending crunch we're all about to see is very disinflangs their. >> it's interesting. you have inflation in all the wrong places and you have defl deflationary forces in other

places they're trying to combat both. the inflation problem, they're not winning. things are working in their benefit, things are working for them, but that's not what they need to work for them. they're screwed. >> the fed >> absolutely. >> except for that if you think about where the market is right now going into -- realize, we have a long way until the may meeting and it may go away and a lot of bad thingthings, but if e fed had to go, they would go another 25 here. the fed, they were late getting here, they're going to be late on the way out the door. >> bond market is giving it a 40% chance of a rate hike in may and then thinks the cuts begin in june/july >> no way. >> that's surprising to me there's not a pause in there >> no way. >> because they never quite get it right, i guess, is the point. so, investors may want to pull the plug on the big tech trade our next guest says the bubble in the sector will start deflating again in q-2 dan suzuki is the deputy chief investment officer at richard

bernstein advisers they made their tech bubble call almost two years ago then it popped and you guys were looking smart, and now -- what do you think is happening? >> not so smart anymore? >> yeah, i think this is to be expected if you go back to the last tech bubble we had, you had 16 different double-digit rallies over the 2 1/2-year period this is to be expected people don't give up the stuff they've known to come and love that dominates their portfolios when you're sitting on tons of capital gains. i think they're going to fight that and i think tim said , the fact that people want to just go back and our the stuff that's worked over the last cycle. people don't want to go where the future leadership is going to be, which is not where the bubble is, that bubble is still deflating. >> and when you say bubble, you're putting the megacaps in there, too >> absolutely. >> all the leaders >> yeah, i'd say -- the leaders over the last ten years is really driven by u.s. large cap growth u.s. megacap growth, innovation technology, all that stuff is still, you know, including the

megacaps, for sure >> so, if that's the old where you wanted to be, what's the new where you want to be >> yeah, well, if we're right, and there is a bubble that's still deflating, if you just think about what a bubble is, it's a giant vacuum for cap tap. you get this mashmassive allocan if you take out those three sectors in the u.s. that are dominated by technology, i think everything is fair game. probably not defenses, probably aren't going to be the leadership of the next cycle, but everything else. that's international, that's small cap, that's value, that's full inflation asset no one wants to own that stuff, because it's underperformed for a decade or two. that's why it's cheap. >> i think you have a story to tell around rates peaking, the dollar possibly peaking. so, are the places for investors to chase, chase is maybe the wrong word i'm saying inv vest in growing companies in an environment where i don't see how the dollar can move significantly higher.

i'd argue that's an 11-year bull market on the dollar rates, i don't think, can go a lot higher this is a backdrop for some companies to perform >> yeah, absolutely, tim i think right here, you really have to separate the next five to ten days -- next five to ten months -- next five to ten years. what's working is probably going to continue to work. there's probably some room for, you know, a rally and the stuff that's beaten down five to ten months, i think the key story is growth is slowing profit, you know, we're going to go into earning season the earning season will probably be worst than last so, the companies that are most sensitive to that, they are probably going to get hurt by that that's the stuff i was talking about, where the big opportunity is for the long-term depends on where your time is. i think along the way, there's companies that are going to benefit from each one of those dynamics >> credit's the life blood of what they do and i've said, i don't know, i am not saying i'm right, rates could go back to zero, but credit, lending is going to be

tighter than it was before how does that play into the tech story? >> yeah, it's -- if you think about the area of the market where that was the biggest beneficiary of the record liquidity, it's those stocks so, as that goes away, and i agree, if the reason that rates go to zero is because growth is falling off a cliff, at that point, where is the liquidity going to be? it's not going to be there i 100% agree and companies are going to get hit on that side, but on the earnings side. people think they are impervious to slowing growth. look at what their growth is now, and we haven't really even seen the major slowdown yet. people always underestimate tech, especially post-pandemic, and i think they'll be surprised again. >> dan, thank you. >> thank you, guys >> so, let's trade this, karen big cap tech, a lot of people own this stock, a lot of people are loading up you have exposure. >> yeah, i have a lot of exposure meta is my biggest position. alphabet was my biggest going in meta just did much better.

i own microsoft, i own apple microsoft and apple, as guy was talking about, are the most expensive, i'm the least comfortable with them. meta is up huge, but meta never should have been at $90. i don't know where it was going -- >> said still the cheapest and covered -- even after the 80% rally this year. >> and even with that rally, it never should have been there, so, if you never saw that part of the chart, you wouldn't think, wow, meta is out over its skis, when you compare it to microsoft and amazon, which has rallied a little, not a lot. i own that, as well. i just think these cash hoards in an environment -- >> what? >> hoards. the d, the d the cash hoards are very valuable and if you think about the potential for competition to not be able to come to market, because it's expensive and money is very -- it's not to be had, so, i'm comfortable in this space, particularly meta and alphabet

>> let's turn now to the fed just releasing its slate of balance sheet data trying to figure out how much banks are tapping the lending window just how much financial stress is out there in the banking system steve has the results. steve? >> yeah, some easing, sarah. i mean, the data show that there's still a high level of takedown at the window, but it's less than it was the fed's balance sheet overall declining by $28 billion to $8.76 trillion this is reserve credit outstanding, and that's after two weeks of where increase by $400 billion so, here's how we got here discount window loans did decline by $22 billion, but $88 billion still a big number to be taking down from the window. it is usually zero and there's that new bank term funding program, up by about $11 billion toll $64 billion this is where you can take your paper and have it financed at par at a one-year swap rate. and loans to the bridge bank, that's financing the shutdown of

signature and silicon valley bank it looks like that stopped rising as fast as it was, $180 billion right now. it's about where it was, $300 million above where it was last week and foreign central bank repo, that was $60 billion last week, it's still $56 billion so, some central bank took advantage of the repo opportunity at the federal reserve. so, sarah, i think the story is that the anxiety level still is high there's still a need for funding at the window. banks could just be being cautious there getting their liquidity in a row for potential problems they have, could indicate existing problems, but it was comport with what we are hearing from fed officials that things are more stable than they were the last couple weeks sarah? >> yeah, we just want to see it keep moving in that direction. steve, thank you steve leesman with the latest balance sheet data guy, indicating there is some stress, and there is some need

out there still in the banking system i know the financials have had a solid run, which is calming everybody down a little bit, but -- i don't know, are there still more skeletons in that closet >> i think so, i mean, i believe if you watch the way some of the banks have been trading over the last couple weeks. again, i don't want to name names here, they're not trading particularly well. in the wake of what was a bit of a lifeline -- >> you mean the regionals? >> absolutely. so, you got to believe, and i've said it, i think this ends with some sort of take under, having no idea, and again, the other question that people are going to ask themselves is, has qt ended and are we back on qe, because if we are back on the qe circuit, then the market is going to take off from here. i think steve would submit, i'm not bringing him back, that no, this is temporary, they're going to continue with qt, but that's the rub. >> well, they are continuing with qt and it's growing with loans that will get paid back, but they're not trying to ease or inject wliquidity in the system >> we have two weeks to digest

the dynamics and there's nothing about the index that says to go in and buy it >> there might not be anyone going in and buying it, but we know there's going to be regulation, they're going to accumulate liquidity, right, and not lend, but -- is there going to be another blowup i think that's the bigger -- >> that's what i'm saying. >> are those the only two or three that had such duration mismatches it seems unlikely. we still don't know the fate of first republic, which is a very high profile one i think -- >> they have liquidity now, is the difference >> yeah, but the equity is at zero the stock was down 4% today. >> financials didn't close red today. >> down 25% since mid-february why is bank america -- why is -- >> because -- >> why -- >> banks do this, though banks traded down in august of 2020 when the rest of the stock market banks waited six months to rally, because people were worried about credit revisions

and the dynamics they haven't yet seen i'm agreeing with you in saying that i don't think this is a great place to go buy banks, but it doesn't surprise me -- i don't think bank of america should be indicted based on where they have been traded. >> i know, but i'm just saying, on a market cap term, exposure term, this bank -- you put all the regionals together and, you know what i mean and i'll just say this, if you look at the options market, bank america, they are paying dividend cuts. so, when you think about this, you know, like, one of the big stories coming out of covid, coming out of financial crisis is always the cash return that these banks, when they can do it, and they're in the dark -- i'm just throwing that out there. >> yeah. >> and we're going to have a whole heck of a lot -- i mean, they're the first ones to report earnings in a couple of weeks here i wouldn't be so complacent into q-1 right now. >> first republic down 90%. a news alert here on virgin orbit. morgan >> hi, sarah virgin orbit has failed to secure funding and it will cease operations

it is poised to lay off about 85% of its work force. the company in a filing hit the tape just a few moments ago, saying it has announced a work force reduction of 675 emp employees, constituting 85% of that work force to reduce expenses in light of virgin orbit's inability to secure meaningful funding this, of course, coming after the company had been looking to secure a sale or secure an investor someone or something to inject a lifeline into this small launch company that has been majority owned and funded by sir richard branson through virgin group it comes on the heels of a deal that almost happened last week and then was scuttled over the weekend. and after a failed mission back earlier in the year in january virgin orbit has been under pressure i'm not even going to talk about the stock here, because it's a penny stock, but those shares are plunging on this news and we have a full writeup on cnbc.com.

back over to you >> yeah, i mean, it was a nearly $1.5 billion company at the peak morgan, thank you very much. what a disaster. when we come back, is there more pain ahead for charles schaub one analyst seeing a lot more company for the broker details straight ahead. and cashing in on coal the new ceo starting his job with a b biget on his own company. should you follow his lead we're going to look for some answers when "fast money" comes right back but i count on personal financial advice. my ameriprise advisor understands the markets and me. she knows my goals and can help me reach them with confidence. the markets may fluctuate but you're still on track. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. (woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business.th listening to unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america?

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that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "fast money. schwab shares plunging after they were downgraded to equal weight from overweight, slashing its price target to $68. client outflows will continue to mount, with no turnaround in site the stock is down 32%, just this month, in the wake of the silicon valley bank crisis even was looking at tschwab, an then things were calmed down what is this downgrade about >> well, it's about earnings so, it's kind of what we were just talking about with all the banks, further regulation, right? and some of the dynamics that are come from, you know, the quick rise in interest rates, how a lot of these banks make money. how much of those assets are

ensured by fdic, the way they're moving from one account to another and really, it is about net interest margins, right? so, a lot of the cash that is sitting there is not being deployed in an account is at a very low interest account. when you think about the mismatch and the ability for people to move those to much higher yielding money market funds, that's what's going on here, right? and so they earn the money on the other side of it, right? because they have the sweep situations, so, this analyst today who downgraded the stock, he cut their earnings estimates from this year by 30% and by next year for 30%. this is a $100 billion market cap company. guys, honestly, and gals, i just can't remember the last time we have seen that sort of earnings cut for a company this size not in the throes of a pandemic, in the throes of a financial crisis so, again, it goes back to wires, and this stock can't get out of its own way and here's another point, td,

they are the largest shareholder at 10% charles schwab, you know, the guy, the namesake, he owns 6%. so, you think about how much of the holdings of this thing is locked up with insiders. there is real money accounts selling this stock >> by the way, dramatic use of guys and gals. the one thing i'd say about the funding dynamic, so higher interest outflow, et cetera, where were they a year ago i think the bigger issue is at least the morgan stanley note says $22 billion in unrealized losses on the books. that, when you have a run on funding, is the problem, to me it's not -- >> right >> not the net interest income from getting free deposits -- >> but they do not have 80% of their funds are below the $250,000 insured they also are not seeing deposit flight in the way any of the regional banks were. it's a whole different model, isn't it it's a brokerage -- >> if they have to fund

withdrawals, they have a problem. >> but they have liquidity now is my point. >> i agree that their clients are very different, stickier, et cetera >> let's take it one more direction. they hear morgan stanley downgrades the equal weight, oh, my god, catastrophic, their price target on the stock is $68 with an equal weight, which is 30% higher where the stock is trading now, which leads one to believe that if they're overweight in other stocks, they think they're going up 50% so, great call by morgan stanley. what's the thesis behind that price target that's what i have trouble with. >> yeah, it's weird. >> which is weird. >> let me just add one thing i couldn't help but just think -- maybe it's a little bit, morgan stanley does own e-trade now and who might be the beneficiary of deposits leaving schwab >> oh -- >> that's a very conspiratorial way of -- >> can i -- >> can i make one point about the fdic and the 80% that are underneath that? they are one of the biggest

custodians for raas. so, if you are running an independent raa and you have, let's say, hundreds of millions of dollars of your client fund, if you started to get a sense there might be issues, that sort of organization might pull their money and put it somewhere else. and that is very reminiscent of what went on in '08, when bear sterns had a lot of issues that -- they had a run on that bank their institutional clients stopped using them as prime brokerage, and that was the beginning of the end and that's what happened when otheren banks, as we got further into '08, when they weren't accepting the other banks collateral so, to me, there are potential similarities going forward >> they are probably doing a lot of work on the phones. all right, still a lot more "fast money" still to come here is what is coming up next on the show. coal's relationship goals. the new ceo showing his love with a big stock purchase. the $2 million show of faith ahead. plus, continued contagion

from the bank crisis how insurance companies could get caught up in the fallout those details ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. f. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

welcome back to "fast money. shares of coal surging almost 4% today. ceo come kinsbury, who took over last month, disclosed he bought $2 million of shares he now holds nearly 230,000 shares, though much of that is uninvested restricted stock. karen, you follow him in >> no, i haven't i find the name a little bit toxic. it's not crazy expensive here.

so, i can see why someone would want to buy it good for him i like to see ceos really put their money where their mouth is i >> by the way, the schwab ceo is buying stock >> he said he bought 50,000 shares yeah, that was really good so, i -- i don't love the name, i'd rather be in tim's macy's, probably, than kohl's. disaster last year >> did you ever own it through any of this, when it was going to get bought? >> i did, yes, i did and i was furious with the board, i thought they did a horrific job very misleading when they lost their chief operating officer. never told anyone until after the vote yeah >> yeah. that was a whole long saga >> yes, it was. when we come back, could insurance stocks be the next victim of the banking crisis how the financial fallout is impacting that group in

particular, straight ahead. ldor ad options traders eyeing go f move. how they're playing the metal, straight ahead straight ahead "fast money," back in two. straight ahead "fast money," back in two. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years. asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®.

welcome back the banking crisis taking a toll

on yet another industry, insurers lincoln national getting hit the hardest and names like aig and metlife falling as much as 20% this past month. our contessa brewer covers the sector, joins us here on set and we were talking earlier, we really haven't focused enough on this, given the magnitude of the declines >> it is also rare to see insurance companies moving this dramatically it's been very volatile. spun off from aig, although it still owns most of the company metlife and prudential, down about the same, brighthouse down 25%, the worst-hit, lincoln national down 30%. now, lincoln national specifically held $89 million of silicon valley bank's unsecured debt at the end of last year according to s&p global, insurers total investment in the banks that moody's downgraded is less than $5 billion, when the

industry holds, just putting this into context, trillions in assets in cash insurers could also take a hit from these banks by paying out on d and o policies. shareholders have already filed a lawsuit against svb claiming mismanagement by its directors and officers if there were a jury award or settlement, insurance would pay. among the biggest providers of this kind of insurance, chaig, travelers, svb has, we're told, $180 million in coverage, that's according to an industry trade publication, "the insurer. it is a long tail challenge for the insurance stwindustry, but immediate challenge is macro issues like inflation and, of course, this rolling credit crisis, which they just have to keep tabs on >> contessa, thank you, for laying that out. so, guy, is this -- is this a guying opportunity, or -- >> i don't know, sometimes it's

a selling opportunity. we always have -- we typically are buying, sometimes it is a selling opportunity. prudential has gone from $99 to $82 now. lowest in two years. these are typically pretty stable companies they don't move like this. and you think the risk they have in the bond market well, we talked about the bond moves we've been seeing. and then you think about the balance sheet stuff. i mean, this is a dangerous place. i'm glad con tes thhtessa is sha light. >> well, let's talk more about it let's bring in ryan krueger, a life insurance analyst at kbw, a steeple company. ryan, great to have you. is this a danger for the sector? >> thank you, sarah. as a direct impact is pretty limited, but there could be some knock-on effects over time, particularly around credit, as contessa mentioned in terms of the direct impact, it's really isolated to bond ownership of the troubled banks,

but that only equals 0.3% of equity for public life insurers and no company is greater than 1% liquidity risk is a critical difference between banks and line insurers. most like insurance liabilities are long in duration, many of the liabilities cannot be surrendered or have protections like surrender penalties and lastly, life insurers are liability-driven investors, and they own assets specifically to match the duration of their liabilities. >> ryan, hang on, if you would, because we want to get to breaking news that we are just getting in on former president donald trump, amon jaifers with the details. >> go sources familiar with the situation tell nbc news that trump's attorneys have been notified that he has been indicted this would be an historic first for a former u.s. president to be indicted in any kind of k criminal matter. two sources are telling nbc news

that former president donald trump has been indicted and his lawyers have been notified of that we don't have any indication right now as to what the specific charges are here, that the former president has been indicted on. "the new york times" is out with a report within the past couple of minutes saying that the indictment remains under seal at this hour. we're trying to verify all that and we'll bring you as much detail on it as we have, but all of this, as you know, sarah, centers around and investigation into hush money payments that the former president's lawyer paid before the election campaign in 2016, or during the election campaign in 2016, before the election, to stormy daniels, the adult film star, $130,000 in hush money to indicate that stormy daniels should not reveal the details of an alleged affair. the former president has denied that affair. he's denied that the hush money payment was in any way improper or illegal and we're going to see now a titanic struggle in court as to

whether or not this indictment is going to lead to a constriction of the president of the united states. and remember -- the former president of the united states and remember, of course, that an indictment is just an allegation, those allegations need to be proven in a court of law. the next steps here, sarah, will be interesting for history, because what you could see for the first time ever is a former united states president being arraigned in a court in manhattan, being fingerprinted and photographed in the bowels of the courthouse, alongside his secret service detail. so, we're entering a period in american history that we haven't seen before, sarah, and we're going to get more information on exactly what these charges are, the status of when this might be unsealed and when we might learn more about what exactly this case is, but you can imagine that this will set off a titani legal battle and titanic political battle now, as the former president, donald trump,

is running for president again in 2024, now running under indictment, sarah. >> i can just imagine the political fallout. so, eamon, we will find out the charges, the specific charges, that will get publicized >> it's not clear -- they will have to publicize those at some point. typically, grand jury will indict under seal and at some point that seal will be removed and we'll see the charges on the docket, we'll all be able to see them and determine what kind of a case this is the d.a. here has been playing his cards a little bit close to the vest in the sense of, we don't know exactly what he has, we don't know if this is centered specifically around the payment to stormy daniels. the facts around that have been known for years now, sarah the other question is, you know, where there are payments to other women here there was a former playboy playmate who received a payment. there's a question about whether that's involved here we just simply don't know at this hour the full extent of the case here that the d.a. has put together against the former

president, but he is going to have to unseal that and he will have to make that case in public it is not necessarily a slam dunk case. you think back to the precedent here, you know, jon edwards, the former democratic candidate for president, faced similar allegation of political hush money, and ended up walking away from that case the jury was not able -- or, the prosecution was not able to prove its case in that situation involving a similar set of circumstances around hush money to cover up an alleged affair in a political context. in this case, you would be looking at potential questions around falsification of business records. questions around the idea of whether this was an improper campaign contribution by somebody or an expenditure by somebody including the former president himself that was nod handled according to campaign law. a lot of questions around what the actual charges will be here, and that will make all the difference >> and he will have to come to new york to face them, correct >> he would have to come to new york he would have to be in a courthouse in new york he would have to be

fingerprinted and photographed there will be a mug shot of the former president these are all things we have never seen before in american history, sarah, so, it is going to be something to see that, and of course, for the secret service, you can imagine how mind-bending that is to have a secret service protectee taken even temporarily into a courthouse to be photographed and fingerprinted and all the procedures that goes along with that process >> yeah, a lot of security eamon, thank you for all the information. again, the news, a grand jury, we can report, voting to indict former president donald trump. we're going to talk more insurance and get some names when "fast money" is back in just two minutes

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let's talk more insurance. ryan krueger with us we had to cut you off, ryan, because of the breaking news, but wanted to get your take on the risk factors here for this group. you said it's not a huge exposure level, so, do you see an opportunity, a buying opportunity on some of these stocks >> look, we -- we're more constructive on the group here after selloff, but we do think it will remain choppy. we view credit risk as the biggest risk from here there are already recessionary

concerns ahead of these banking issues to accelerate economic weaknesses and eventual credit losses so, the industry does have a good track record in credit and they can generally absorb credit losses, but typically do have to pull back on share repurchase to fund that, so, our top picks here are equitable, rga, companies that have strong capital positions and characterize them as a bit more defensive in some ways and -- but i do think from here, it will probably be a choppy environment for the life insurance industry, particularly driven by macro concerns >> ryan, it's karen. is there somewhat of a commercial real estate fear there, how big is that, and how much do you think that has weighed on this sector if at all? >> it's been a significant topic with investors, probably the top concern today. commercial mortgages are about

13%. the primary concern, and that's about a quarter of that, 3% of assets and 30% of equity they've had almost zero losses in commercial mortgage loans for the last 25 years and they tend to be pretty conservative lenders with low leverage. that said, this is an unprecedented shift in the work environment and we do think some levels of losses are likely, but we think it will pla slowly over time, because they have long duration maturities. we think it will play out gradually as the loans come to refinance. >> ryan, thank you very much >> thanks for having me. >> highlighting the risks there. meantime, gold ticking higher today, on pace for its best month since july 2020 precious metal trying to close above the 2,000 mark for the first time in over a year. and options traders are betting that's exactly where it's

heading. mike khouw with the action mike >> yeah, so, we saw bullish low basically across the complex talking about the minor single stocks, the efts and, of course, gld, which is the gold eft calls outpacing puts two to one. and the busiest contract were the april 14th weekly. 190 strike call. we saw 36,000 of those trading for under 90 cents a concontract buyers are saying that gld can test that. of course going back to the highs that we saw back in 2020 >> thank you, mike guy, you are kind of a gold guy, right? >> tim is, as well yeah, and listen, if you look -- >> thank you >> goldfinger, if you recall >> that's why i brought it up. >> one of my favorite bond movies, by the way sorry, sarah i think $70 billion worth of gold they continue to buy gold this year it hasn't manifested in the

price. they are hedging, wait for it, their own ineptitude >> because the dollar is down? >> i agree i think the correlation here is very high. i also think gold is commodity, as well. long cycle moves gold has taken two, three runs at 2,000 it's time. and if you think about -- we are in a stag inflation world where a dollar that's peaked, this is what you wait for. the gold miners eft is a three-times eft, without the time decay you really -- you get the bait of 2 1/2 times without worrying about one of these three times efts, which are really dangerous to own over the long-term. >> got it. for more options action, tune into the full show, tomorrow 5:30 p.m. eastern time. better together. could an apple/disney merger be a match made in heaven details next and don't miss kyle bass tonight on "last call" with bria sul sullivan that's at 7:00 p.m. eastern. more "fast money" in two

minutes.

join us for a special cnbc pro talk, tomorrow, 1:30 p.m.

eastern, women and wealth with jenny herrington register at cnbcevents.com for that virtual event going to be a good one turning now to a magical merger. laura martin making a wish that disney and apple could couple up in a new note, she writes, quote, we believe that great content and strong distrue bigs footprint are complimentary networks that is, both are worth more if they have the other. is she right, karen? >> well, mathematically, i see how she could be right she's talking about apple doing it as a stock for stock deal, given how expensive their stock is, that it could be -- not using their cash, they still have their cash hooard, they ge all this content, but apple has never done anything -- i think beats, their biggest acquisition at $2 billion. so, this is obviously a whole other scale. it is interesting to think about, but i'm a bit skeptical

just sell it >> if there was ever a guy to do a deal -- you know what is really interesting if you go, i know, iger did that deal with pixar and he bought it from jobs and jobs didn't want to sell to isner when iger came in, he did the deal right away. it's kind of interesting, a funny bookend to the whole thing. it's not just particularly likely, because you would have a fairly fat premium on this and i don't think apple thinks they need to do this they can build their own -- >> they don't need to do it. >> they don't need to be a con me content machine. they have finding the engagement from media and how they bring it to you as your way in. >> still fun to think about, i guess. >> this, we talked about, i think, in the early days of "fast money," we had conversation about disney and apple, makes a lot of sense. we talked about disney and netflix, apple and netflix they are just rehashing things we talked about -- i'm not suggesting she watched the show back then, but we have talked

about it >> ten years to catch up with the conversations happening here s that's very true. >>o ahead of our time. up next, speaking of, final trades you won't want to miss them.

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it is time for final trade let's go around the horn tim? what was that gasp >> i dgot an unfortunate sports update >> i learned the baseball part >> go to a casino instead of doing this on your own las vegas fans, this is something -- >> trading, investing? >> well, a little bit of everything but i think you have a recovery there that's not reliant on macao, though the numbers coming out today in terms of occupancy. >> i was in vegas this week, it was very busy. >> what were you doing >> shoptalk. karen, i missed. but i didn't get to gamble at all. what are you choosing? >> i am choosing net rentals i think the selloff was overdone >> dan >> names like walmart, you know, starting to act a bit defensive here and you want to be defensively positioned >> sarah, i know you were watching you see judge earlier today, you were locked into that. >> i have no idea what you're

talking about. >> well done well done. >> home runs >> exactly look at you. valero energy is working here, sarah, come on. >> there you go. thank you, everybody thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job not just to entertain but to educate, explain days like today. call me, 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. every day i wake up,