indicting former president trump in connection with hush money payments to a porn star and the lead up to the 2016 presidential election we go live to washington, d.c. for the latest. and massachusetts inve investigators opening up an investigation into the stock sale of first republic bank. it is friday, march 31st, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today. joe's here >> i'm here.

trying to draw out the theme i'm not wearing brown or gray. it's not working >> black >> maybe it is back firing i don't know this morning, i thought maybe today is a new day i still wear that light vest >> it is supposed to be 70 saturday >> we don't have great springs in new jersey. >> i'm feeling it. light late at night. i'm dealing with it. >> i love a nice april it doesn't rain every day. it is not 40 degrees and dreary. i like that. i would like that. >> we will see march hasn't been bad for the markets. check out the u.s. equities at this hour. you will see it looks like the dow is indicated up 70 points nasdaq is down by a point. the nasdaq has been on fire. you are looking at a week of gains. nasdaq is on pace for its best quarter since the fourth quarter

of 2020. take a look at the markets on the final day of trading in the quarter. you can see for the quarter, to date, the nasdaq is up by 15%. s&p up 5.5%. dow jones industrial average is down by less than 1% the nasdaq has been the trade. technology is where it's at. the 10-year treasury is sitting at 5.68. 2-year treasury is 4.16%. and key data point due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern to time it is the february pce that is the fed preferred read on inflation if you want to write this down, economists are expecting the number to hold steady with the gain of 4.7% year on year. that would be the same as the previous one and if it's 4.81%

or 4.9, i guess you say it's hot. if it is loose than that, you say it is moderate -- if it is less than that, you say it is moderating the fed is walking that line sdplchlt i would-- walking thate >> i was not going to say anything. >> they are still dealing with the stress they like to have inflation not be front and center. they have too many balls in the air at one time. it would be nice to get a cool number i don't know if we will. >> we whill find out. the top political story. the grand jury if manhattan voting to indict donald trump. the first time a sitting or former u.s. president faces criminal charges arraignment is expected next week eamon javers is in washington with the latest. eamon. >> reporter: becky, it is historic first the former president of the united states under indictment and at the time he is campaigning to retake power in

2024 he issued a statement last night saying this is political persecution and election interference in the highest level of history the democrats have lied and cheated in trying to get trump now indicting a completely innocent person in an act of blatant interference trump called prosecutors thugs and radical left monsters. his campaign team denounced the indictment and asked for money with donations ranging from $24 to $250. we don't have the specific charges in the indictment. word from trump's attorney he has been indicted. we know manhattan district attorney alvin bragg has been reviewing the circumstances around the $130,000 hush money payment to stormy daniels during the 2016 campaign.

there could be charges in the falsification of business records and campaign finance violations we will only find out when they unseal the indictment. not clear when it will happen. all of that raises the spector of the former president of the united states being arraigned in the courthouse in new york city and fingerprinted and mug shot with the secret service and campaigning for the presidency district attorney alvin bragg said we contacted mr. trump's attorney to coordinate his surrender over the indictment which remains under seal the question no one can answer is how the indictment will i am pa -- impact the former president's campaign we did see a statement last night from ron desantis,

governor of florida, a trump rival for the gop nomination in 2024 expressing support for trump and denouncing the d.a politically, it is a strange moment legallyand that arraignment next week is something to see back to you. >> eamon, the support from desantis, i don't think he mentioned trump's name it was more support for the idea that the d.a., he thought, was political in this. he said he would not comply if asked to extradite >> reporter: that was an interesting point. it raises the spector, anyway, of the idea that somehow maybe trump would not comply with the indictment and would not surrender himself. desantis has policing power in the state of florida would back that play.

that seems unlikely to happen. we know -- >> you can't leave the state of florida. >> i think -- >> reporter: you can't campaign. >> he wants the spectacle. >> reporter: sure. he wants to signal support to trump. >> right the judiciaournal has a good pi. the action itself by the d.a. opens up pandora's box starting a discussion about it, eamon, opens up pandora's box. so many nuances and points to be made we would go until 9:00 talking about it literally i want to stay above it. >> reporter: other networks will, joe. >> i watched last night. nothing else had ever happened everybody got to weigh in. i can write down your opinion for what it is worth you know what opinions are worth. i don't know if it moves the ball down the field.

does it move the ball down the field? >> reporter: a couple of things to watch for as becky said, very important point this morning we don't know what is in this indictment we don't know the charges. we don't know the evidence we don't have any way to judge how serious the case is. >> the crime guy the local crime reporter >> jonathan dean >> 34 counts this is, according, i'll hang on someone who has seen what is in there. supposedly until the defendant appears -- >> you don't know the charges for sure and you don't know what the evidence is on any of this stuff. i would withhold >> we will get into it, eamon. former speaker pelosi said mr. trump will have an opportunity to prove his innocence

not that the court will have the opportunity. >> i think you are right we shouldn't listen to any politicians. even the extradition >> i get it. >> reporter: there are federal authorities there as we well. if the scenario that desantis is projecting to the world is trump barricading himself in mar-a-lago and refusing to arrest him that will not happen desantis raised it for a reason. >> both sides will be dug in it is sad. if either side is right about anything, it is sad. you know what? in this country, we have a system that -- the greatest system ever, eamon i think justice in the end will be served by the great system we have here. i'm sad for the country on one hand, but on the other hand, you

know, we have been through a couple of impeachments and two-year investigation we have been through a lot a lot of drama which is why he won't stay in florida. the drama will ramp up where will he be in front of trump tower or downtown >> reporter: at the courthouse in lower manhattan this is the former president who predicted death and destruction if indicted. we didn't see that last night. >> he said -- i don't know i saw the movie where he said completely innocent. i don't think any of us. "unforgiven" where he says we deserve this eamon is completely innocent >> reporter: i'm a babe in the woods. >> thank you, eamon.

>> okay. greed. massachusetts regulators are investigating insider stock sales by investors of first republic bank. the office has subpoenaed for more information on matters of insider trading policies secretary galvin will join us at 7:10 a.m. eastern. >> this is the question raised about the other banks that went down, including silicon valley bank, which paid out executives before hand. that was heat they took from congress >> we talked about the ceos and ins insiders the one time they know what they are doing is underselling. remember kodak and general electric >> sometimes it pays out >> i think congress knows when

to buy better than the ceos. coming up, get ready for th final trading day of the quarter and key inflation data we talk about strategy next. later, bbb bed bath yand sc - bed bath and beyond looking to scrap the latest deal. they are talking money we're back on "squawk box. >> announcer: this cnbc program sponsored by truist wealth where we focus on person-to-person connections so you can focus on what matters most . but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪

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the delivering alpha investor series brings the leading investors and strategists and our own cnbc contributors in a poll over the last week, we asked where they expect to find the best returns for the year. 33% said two-year treasuries 23% said the nasdaq 100. 20% said oil 17% said the s&p 500 7% said bitcoin. you know, you could just take those numbers, becky, and add to your portfolio >> do what >> pick your $10,000 here in the

two-year and some in the nasdaq. they will go ahead and take that, if you have dry powder, right now. i would not put that much in treasuries >> i wouldn't split my portfolio that way this is not the way they suggested to split it. >> you can use it that way maybe jj can help us jjj jj joins us. you know who led rallies in the past and prior to the last week, some were doing well in the last couple sessions, not so well, except one in particular netflix. i don't know what that means

you also have events with apple and microsoft and will they lead big tech again >> exactly, joe. i'll start with the first point about some of the stocks which have been hot over the last couple weeks you know, we saw bullish activity overall with the nasdaq and the leap of almost 20% in terms of outperformance which is unbelievable with that, over the last couple weeks, we saw stocks like coinbase and tesla and ones that people felt they had to be in. the last couple of sessions, those have actually turned the other way. people are taking profits and turning to the sell side netflix has been the one stock that has beat the trend. we saw bullish activity last week we saw 20% more bullish activity last week than 100% bullish

activity this week than normally i'm not just saying buying stocks, but buying puts. it is amazing to see how netflix is bucking the trend i thought many people would do the okay, i had a nice one i'll take profits. as i said, we have seen so much strength from netflix overall. we used to talk two years ago and it was the buy the dip mentality. it always started with apple and microsoft. retail traders trust those two stocks we have seen bullish activity in two of those as i look where we are with the s&p 500 at 4,050, we know it will be a difficult area to get

over what worries me overall is what will be the catalyst to continue people having the faith to keep buying we have ending the quarter today and next week is a really big test for us. >> where -- how would you characterize this week or the last three sessions? that is really short term. i don't know how helpful that is, jj tuesday was the lowest the volume day of the year are people in front of the pce number today do you think there is a wait-and-see method? >> i don't think that is the case i will tell you, joe, the other thing happening and i don't know if you are seeing that on the east coast, but on the west coast, it is spring break time

a lot of people just rant in because they are away with families for a week or something like that. this week and next week may be, as you said, slower. next week, you may see a bit slower depending on the school district that does impact volumes this time of year there is the mantra on wall street never sell a dull market there is low volume. we continue to go higher as i look at the indicators and what i see is a risk-off trade you see the vifx coming down. you have not seen people running to buy treasuries for protection, et cetera. if i look at a longer-term perspective, we are in an interesting area for those longer-term trader we're at a top end of the established range in ofthe last

six months is this necessarily the time to pull the trigger in a big way? i say retail traders all the time and one of the things that many of them do is have all-or-none mentality. you may want to keep powder dry with the selloff you can buy the same stocks cheaper. >> the five stocks to watch if the nasdaq will continue which ones >> microsoft, apple. absolutely will lead the way overall. i do think tesla tesla is the stock that is a true momentum stock from retail traders overall. when they feel like things are going well, it is one they flock to i know you reported this morning about mr. musk going to china.

that is going to add to that that is one, again, i view that and bitcoin as the two biggest measures of retail confidence. when retail is feeling good, those are the products they are most likely to buy i would say that really if i'm saying individual names, to me, it is primarily around those three names. and we go from there joe, you are depressed about spring before. baseball started yesterday you should be happy. >> we have to tease of a nice warm weather. >> more things change, the more they stay the same i watched the reds yesterday the worst bull pen he lost 100 games last year. 100 games. you play 162 you lose 100, are you not going to do well go ahead, jj

the pirates didn't have to get a hit. okay you take home. next all right. you go ahead you go home. next >> it is only game one, joe. take a breath. it is only game one. >> really? they lost 22 straight games last year >> you watched every one >> i can't i finally put it back on the trump coverage that's how bad it got. >> aaron judge first swing he took of the season was a home run. >> maybe can he do it in post season this year >> ouch. vitriol all the way around when we come back, a change of strategy for bed, bath & beyond trying to avoid bankruptcy e u teby j seyolar.

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bed, bath & beyond is terminating the fund raising with hedge fund capital and trying to sell up the $3 million of common stock to stave off bankruptcy that comes after the retailer reported a sharp drop of sales in the recent quarter. executives said if the stock offering fails to come through, they will file for bankruptcy which will wipe out hoerlders of the common stock the shares sell to an all-time low yesterday of 59 cents.

virgin orbit is stopping operations for the foreseeable future after failing to fund a lifeline they dropped a rocket from under the wing of the modified 747 jet. the last mission suffered a failure. according to audio obtained by cnbc, the ceo said anearly all o the work force will be laid off. he said we have no choice but to implement extremely painful changes. the company reached late-stage deal talks with a pair of investors, but the talks fell through. virgin orbit was spun off virgin galactic in 2017 hart said the company set up a pipeline for laid off employees to find positions at virgin galactic richard branson owns 75% of the company. he said he would not give additional funding

one of the staff >> one of them that was galactic. virgin galactic. >> the sister company. >> all the time. >> used to be. >> a lot of people when we come back, new reporting on the fed's moves during the recent bank turmoil steve liesman has that story next. programming note today is the final day of women's history money. cnbc has a pro talk live event with three female investors. just go to cnbc.com/pro/talks. i made it easy three successful investors and somebody else. tune in today at 1:30 p.m. eastern time we'll be right back.

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good morning well come back to "squawk box. live from the mnasdaq market sie in times square. open higher. it was down in the middle of the session. really unclear what the end result would be. when it was all said and done, the dow was up more than 100 yesterday. the s&p closed at 4,050. the nasdaq is -- down 3. dow jones industrial average up 77 >> up 15% for the quarter. >> tech is up more than that tech is up eaven more. san francisco fed governor mary daly is concerned about the silicon valley bank which is in his district

steve liesman is looking at how involved she may have been with that bank. good morning, steve. >> reporter: mary daly's district saw the second largest bank failure in history. she has become the target of criticism. she would not be a key player in the bank supervision several officials told cnbc. a highly centralized oversight of banks put the supervision under the board of governors in washington all sources said the key decision about policy and enforcement would have been in washington, not by the regional bank president one former bank president told sn cnbc, she was not in the chain of command she would have been cleared by

washington daly and the board of governors in washington declined to comment when asked regional banks supervise smaller community banks. those under $100 billion in assets big managers work and hired and fired by the regional bank presidents the reporting goes to the board in washington. they are called large bank organizes. supervisory policy is made in washington in other words, one bank president said washington sets the strike zone and makes enforcement action in the case of svb the strictest enforcement like downgrades were not taken. none of this explains the supervisory failures over svb. it suggests that any review of what went wrong will end up pointing heavily to washington and bureaucracy and board leadership than san francisco. it raises questions about the fed structure.

should more authority be delegated or responsibility given to the regional presidents and does the fed put priorities on supervision one former official said to me, daly is not coming out blameless, but no way to say she is making the most important decisions surrounding the bank failures those would have been made in washington becky. >> that is interesting she is probably happy. the buck is getting passed around i thought lbl was in the 11th buyout >> reporter: that's what i thought. >> bto that's bachman, t turner overdr. >> reporter: i have a lot more it is deep, joe, and it is weird. it was surprising to hear this you think -- i always thought the regional bank presidents

were in charge of it >> it doesn't stop there >> reporter: it doesn't, from what i can tell. >> there is no one person we can blame. it was washington. >> reporter: i think, joe, it will lead up, i think, to washington and maybe all the way to the fed vice chair michael barr, who came in in the middle of this and two things happened in this. barr comes in in the middle and svb becomes an lbo it changes the supervisory regime -- large bank organization that was the mistake joe made, becky. >> i know. >> svb becomes a large bank organization and the regime changes. that may have been the problem >> actually, that's what i heard. with his son randy bachman. >> steve, stay there we want to talk about the bank

fallout and what it means for community banks. we bring in rebecca ramey. she represents 50,000 insti institutions reb rebecca, let's talk about the community banks. there is so much talk about the mid tier banks the banks which have gotten into trouble have been the mid tier banks which are somewhere $10$2 assets the banks are smaller. >> quite a bit smaller and different when you think about the business model they are focused on local communities and taking in local deposits and deploying those in loans in the form of capital to grow economies and be the source of sustainability for the

future. >> what do your banks look like right now? are they under stress or see a flight of deposits leaving >> banks look strong what we have seen in the whole last few weeks is really, i think, as you noted earlier, education about what makes banks different in the country with community banks, we are finding customers going in and visiting the local bank respect a -- local bank presidents and building on the trusted relationships they had for generations with that local community bank >> do your bankers not need help at this point? is it the thought that everything's fine? >> what we have been saying is as we look at all that has happened is community banks don't need to pay for the special assessment or kofcost o increase the fdic to pay for the failure of svb

we need to let community banks do what they do which is support and provide 60% of small business loans in the country and 80% of agriculture loans. >> argument is those banks is under pressure which is why they shouldn't be assessed. are they under pressure or shouldn't do it because they didn't get in trouble? >> they shouldn't be assessed because they are strong and stable and they don't have the risk manager practices we have seen in the larger institutions. community banks are making decisions and taking risks that take them over the long term to have the stability and resiliency in times like this. >> rebeca, i would say the mega banks could say the same thing back in the financial crisis, they got in trouble. some of them would say the same thing. we shouldn't be assessed for this we didn't do it. >> well, i would say quite the contrary i would say as we see size and

scale within the industry, think about risk and as we think about the opportunity to not incur additional fees for the small community banks which is what we need to folk focus on. >> as long as you are not assessed with this, you are in good shape >> yes community banks profile reports with quality which is favorable and deposits are stable and capital is strong. it is a positive picture with community banks. >> one story we are following in the journal and other places is commercial real estate is so heavily reliant on community banks at something like t80% is commercial real estate a problem? >> i think as we work through the current economic cycle, i would go back to the business model and decisions made in community banks.

they are made not to take the immediate or short bet they are made to be sustainable and reliable over the long term. so, as we look around the corner in terms of the next challenge, i would argue that community banks would work through that as they have in the past. >> it is certainly a business model that we like to see. we like to see community bankers. we appreciate your time, rebeca. thank you. >> thank you coming up, the report says jack ma organized the breakup of alibaba while living abroad. details next. and uncocil ceo president is going to join us on the latest with u.s. and china relations. we are coming right back can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory. and save us a ton of dough. then let's take back our market share.

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chinese billionaire jack ma origchestrated the breakup of alibaba from overseas. according to the report from the wall street journal that says ma was a figure in the company after stepping down as executive chairman in 2019 a report says that ma held calls with top executives, including daniel chang urging to split up the company to make it more nimble and competitive ma made a surprise visit to the school in the alibaba hometown on monday. that was the first known trip to

china in almost a year that appearance came the day before the company announced it would split into six companies the retired communist party officials have been reaching out to ma in the last few months it is time to come back and contribute to china's development. coming up, bonus season bummer we dig into the 26% decline for wall street bonuses and impact on the new york economy. that's next. as we head to break, here is a look at the s&p 500 winners and lose fm stdarsroyeery.

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the average bonuses for wall street bankers fell 26% last year amid a slowdown in deal-making and that's according to an analysis from new york state's tomas dinapoli here's the impact on the economy. >> sure. it's a negative that will have an impact obviously on revenues, but i would also point out that it was anticipated both in projection to the state budget and city bujdget as well >> we have lizzie moynihan it was down more than 26% in invested banking or something? >> more than 40% >> 40% >> this is all backwards-looking. this is what happened in 2022, and it's kind of what we expected to see happen there were of course, all of these ripple effects that we

expected to see happen we expected to see cooling across the board goldman sachs called it demolition day referencing david sullivan axing almost 10% of the work force we saw the power shift from the employees who were just a few years earlier demanding we have zoom-free fridays and that everyone gets a peloton, to then kind of dutifully filing back to the office, but i think the question now is who's safe moving forward, and during a time like this as we're seeing silicon valley bank, and all these bank failures, people restructuring the space, they're going to be the winners here we're going to be actively recruiting during the financial crisis, even after they failed, in the couple of years alone people are managing their wealth and made a billion dollars in the first two years. there's always money to be made in any environment, and i think that's where we're going to see

people bringing in the money. >> this goes back to 2019. it goes back to pro-pandemic levels this is a little weird in and of itself where a lot of things were happening during the pandemic and then, what? you got ukraine was invaded and the fed started raising rates and those are probably two of the biggest factors for things drying up in that business >> there were a lot of factors that precipitated that the interest rates didn't help, and deal-making slowed down. that was obviously why during the pandemic we saw so much activity everyone wanted to go public everything during this uncertainty, people are just waiting to sit back and see what happens next. >> lydia, the bonus pool is big. so that's the schedule, and what is it? $126,000 was the average bonus that's the number, but what was the total, like, $33 billion, right? s >> it's important to note.

anecdotally we're hearing from goldman sachs, some people are just getting $10,000 or $15,000. that was really shocking >> the rainmaker. >> david sullivan's pay decreased about a third, but still got a $25 million bonus. >> what about a rainmaker in bomb trading or, you know, what are the things you think of investment banking they're getting a $2 million or $3 million bonus, raren't they? >> absolutely, and traders, they get a bonus as well, but that was during the volatility, those revenues were consistent >> when you talk about the junior people making $10,000 or $15,000 some of them for the bonus and saying that's shocking, what did it used to be >> it used to be at least $100,000 pit used to be at least the same number as your base pay, and there was a lot of frustration among your partners that's kind of embarrassing for them that have young kids that are trying to make ends meet in manhattan who work 100-hour weeks during the year, and hoping they'll be

compensated for that work and that was a real slap in the face, and i think that's been a huge risk for the firm too, just dealing with people who are much less motivated >> is that a sign, like, we're not going to -- we don't think of you too highly? we think you should look somewhere else >> some think this is firing by process. we're looking at that overall pool dip, and yet things want to make sure that the most successful and the highest performers and the rain makers are still compensated and that's a real indication of whether or not you're valued by the firm because when you have less money to go around, it's not like everyone gets a piece of the pie. it's high performance will still be rewarded, maybe a little bit less, but it's not going to be that trophy. >> even out in california there's ripple effects because the $500 bottles of wine and bread are probably when these guys go, they'll be getting an

$80 bottle of wine that's an example. it does affect the new york city economy. it does. >> maybe you can only get a table at a club one night a week now. >> you start by staying at home which is still a problem dinapoli when he was on yesterday, there was no sha pleasure no one who is trying to get new york city to come back full force is happy at the combination of this. >> although as lydia said, people are back in the office. people are complaining about that because they don't want to get back in there. the other thing you have going up against this, there are fewer chairs in the musical chairs game when you have downsizing and firms like credit suisse and other things that are happening. there's going to be a limited number of seats. >> it's interesting because there's a phrase that everyone is saying the bonus this year is just keeping your job. >> right >> even while people are maybe a little bit more fed up this

year, they don't have anywhere else to go those tech jobs to seemed so promising a few years ago, they're not hiring right now, and there's not a lot of opportunity to leverage what you are doing at one firm and go to another firm so you're right. i think people aren't happy and yet there's really nowhere else to go. >> good luck. >> lydia thinks on money you launched this how much months ago >> two months ago. >> how often does it come out in the "new york post"? >> every week. >> every week. what was your last one about >> yesterday we wrote -- it's kind of a mixture of interviews, stories. we had a scoop about the byte dance founder amid the disaster with tiktok, and the folks of walmart. it's an interesting scoop, and something you can't get anywhere else. >> what's next week's about? >> you'll have to see.

it's a surprise. find out >> leading into that >> thank you so much >> thank you when we come bk,ac former white house economics adviser jason furman talks to us what could it mean for the fed's next move? we'll be right back.

[ ominous music playing ] [ engines revving ] here we go! ♪ ♪

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc market sight i'm joe cernan ago with becky quick. the u.s. futures are up a little bit this morning treasuries, as we take a quick look i'm laughing because i'm thinking, everyone's waiting for tuesday for, like, this arraignment. all i'm thinking about is the tce at 8:30. our lives are so much different than -- and sometimes i'm relieved that our concerns are little numbers and things that we can sort of gauge what's the fed going to do depending on where inflation is? what's up with tech stocks it's an easier thing, but we can

ignore this, i guess, beck we'll let you do it. >> thank you very much our top plilg political story t morning. a grand jury voting to indict trump. thi this is the first time a sitting or former president will face charges. javrson, good morning >> reporter: good morning to you, becky it is a historic first right? the former president of the united states under indictment at a time when he's planning to retake power in 2024 the former president issued a blistering statement in the wake of indictment news last night saying, this is political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history now we don't have the specifics in the indictment just yet just word from trump's attorney confirming that he has been indicted, but we do know that the manhattan district attorney alvin bragg has been examining the circumstances surrounding this $130,000 hush money payment

to stormy daniels during the 2016 election campaign there could be charges around falsification of business records, and finance violations. we'll see. we're only going to find out when this indictment is finally unsealed and we don't have information on that. all of that raises the specter of the former president of the united states being rained, fingerprinted and of course, photographed for a mugshot even as he receives protection from the secret service officers who are sworn to protect him district attorney alvin bragg said, we contacted mr. trump's attorney to coordinate his sir vender to the manhattan d.a.'s office fr arraignment on a supreme court indictment which remains under seal not a lot of detail there, and a question no one can answer at this point, guys, is just how this indictment is going to affect the former president's political support. will his base rally around him in a time of legal peril or will trump supporters look for

another republican alternative this candidate for president is unlike any other candidate for president we've ever seen. first of all he's a former president running to get back into the white house secondly he has survived scandals that would have doomed any other political figure, and he wakes up this morning to this headline in "the new york times," trump indicted this kind of headline would kill any other presidential campaign. not clear how it will affect donald trump he is not subject to the normal rules of american politics, guys we have seen that time and time again. we'll see if it works for him this time as well. >> if you look at the "new york times," i'll look at the "wall street journal" because this is an unusual look for them you notice the worldwide is at the bottom of the page for the journal, even a business newspaper, decided to drop it down it's pretty unprecedented, but we should say none of us know what is in the sealed indictment at this point. >> no, we don't. >> we don't know what the charges are or the evidence is that will make all the

difference, of course. >> one man's scandal, and half the country would say half those scandals were orchestrated or, you know, i mean, whether they should have gotten to the point they got was maybe being out to get this guy from day one. that's what some say federal prosecutors let this thing go they went nowhere near the whole stormy daniels thing i'm not going to get into -- >> we don't know the evidence, and you probably don't want to bring something unless you have some evidence, but let's see it. we'll watch how this plays out. >> i'm sure there's -- there's probably -- >> bragg is going to have to do two things, guys bragg will have to explain to the jury and the american public why he decided to indict now, you know, is there new evidence? is there a new legal theory? is something new the information around this situation has been out there for

years, right we've known about this hush money payment. it has not been charged previous to this. why is it being charged now? bragg has to explain that in a courtroom to a jury who are also perfectly familiar with who donald trump is. he has to explain it to the american public as well on a political level. he's operating on two tracks here prosecutors normally aren't working on. >> he has to explain it for the actual reasons why he's doing it because he can't really, you know, if he did have a lot of political pressure brought to b bare by certain parts of the democratic party -- they're saying, look they want trump to be the nominee because they think he's the only one that biden can beat this makes total sense this will basically anoint him i don't know if that's true. i don't know if that's true. it could backfire. that's what they wanted. >> he has two impeachments, right? >> he did, but this could make it less likely or more likely he's the nominee nobody knows that's why it says, you know, to open the pandora's box we're

talking about. >> fnobody knows that's why this candidate is different from every other candidate we have had in political history. everybody else including every republican right now. >> someone down in south america somewhere, or, you know, this is what happens in other countries. for 240 years, it never happened in the united states i mean, other places, it's, like, guys -- >> as you said before though, we have the best criminal -- >> we do. >> we'll let it play out. >> how about the pce >> i don't have a prediction >> you don't >> 4.7%. >> 4.7%. >> let's focus on that >> that's what i was expecting >> yeah. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers the giants aren't any good is that your team? >> i mean, when i was growing up, yes. the giants were my team versus the as i was a bay area guy as most of the viewers know

i grew up closer to oakland than i did san francisco. everyone assumed i was an a's fan versus a giants fan. i went to more giants games. how about that i went to more giants games. i have now been to more yankees and mets games than i have been to any one of those because i've spent so much more time on the east coast at any point in my life i'll bring it back to markets, economy, business news and the political side of things we talked about just now. we have interesting macro calls and micro news we'll look at how this year is shaping up with stock versus european counterparts and what we've shone you is the msci eurozone which is up 14% the s&p 500 is up almost 6%. these are calls from citigroup, and we're upgrading to u.s. stocks and downgrading the european stocks from neutral to

overweight saying they think investors will continue here to higher quality growth names and that europe has already had a good run as you can see out-performance wise, and could underperform during the recessions so europe, that's reverting a bit. on the micro, netflix, 10,000 shares of volume, following up on a gain yesterday. the kpcompany is restructuring s film division, job cuts, and that's according to a bloomberg report those shares up about 1% right now. we'll end with a check on gold prices which ties into inflation data they are up so far, you can see this year just about 2.5%. it's on pace for one of its best months since november of last year, and if we stay relatively calm with these prices, this will be the second straight

quarterly gain as well some traders and investors are continuing to renew gold status as more of that safe haven during time of instability, and playing out some of the inflation story depending on how intimately you want to look at the moves, but gold has played out positively this year i'll send things back over to you. >> that and bitcoin. thank you. >> and tech stuff. >> and tech stuff. the delivering alpha investor brings the marketing intelligence with some of the nation's leading investors we asked them for their outlooks and strategies for the second quarter and beyond when asked if the fed is moving too fast on rates, 45% say, yes, it is time to slow down. 45% say they are comfortable with the current pace and only 10% say they would like to see them be more aggressive and raise rates even more. joining us right now is jason furman he served as the chairman of the

economics council under president obama. he's now a professor, and you have been outspoken for quite awhile that the fed wasn't moving fast enough to address inflation. you wanted them to raise rates what do you think now that they've raised rates once again and that the financial crisis was lying in the background? >> yeah, look. there's the macro economy, and there's the financial system we haven't learned anything new about the macro economy that's particularly reassuring in the last 3 1/2 weeks we know that inflation is running at about a 4.5% pace we know that the economy is probably growing faster than its potential. we know that's just a really, really big task to get from here to where we need to go on inflation. the banking turmoil will do part of the job, but, you know, as of this moment, it looks like it's only going to do part of the job and the fed's going to need to do more itself as well >> okay.

you point out it looks like inflation is running at about 4.5% the expectations from the pce number we get this morning is 4.7% year over year. the market's going to look at this and say, okay if it comes in in line with that, it's not too bad don't worry, but you're saying even if it does come in line with expectations, it doesn't matter the fed still has to hike rates more >> yeah. i mean, there's an issue, like, what do you expect right now at, you know, 7:15 a.m. or whatever it is or an hour from now? that's not that big a thing. orveg of course, we're not going to be hugely surprised, of course. we won't be hugely surprised let's step back. four months ago we were expecting that we would be at a pace of, like, 3%. that's really changed pretty dramatically to where we are now, and that's why the fed was, i think, on course to do 50 basis points on the last meeting. i think they made the right call to dial that back to 25 in light

of the banking turmoil i think the main question between now and the next meeting is going to be how much work is the banking turmoil doing? i think the macro data, you know, we'll get the inflation numbers for march before the next meeting i think they're going to be high too. >> just let me ask, just wondering what's happened. it seems like things have stabilized a bit for the moment when it comes to the banks we haven't heard about emergency meetings last weekend, and hoping there won't be any this weekend either when you talk to people who are digging in the markets and poking and trying to find areas of weakness, what point not only the banks could spread, and they look at commercial real estate they look at insurance companies that have a lot of commercial real estate or other assets they have been holding at some level that may not be realistic in terms of the marks, and that may be the concern it may be the reason for the fed pausing. just to see what happens if we continue to push this. you could push it to the point

of lots more things breaking and that could be more than the fed is even wanting to do in terms of a break to the economy. >> look. if we're starting to see this turmoil spread within the financial system, i think a pause would be perfectly appropriate. if we're not, i think a pause would be a mistaken way to try and increase financial stability for two reasons. first of all, eventually you're going to need higher rates, and you lure investors into a false sense of security that the fed finds rates not going up, and you're increasing the chance you're coming back and surprising them later. second, higher inflation means higher interest rates. that means financial instability. you can't have a stable financial system without getting the macro under control. so absolutely they should monitor. they should be careful, but they shouldn't be aggressive in holding off on rate changes for fears of financial stability they could make the problem worse if they did that >> jason, you haven't couched

your terms or being wishy-washy or anything for the past six months or so, and you've heard, you know, jeremy segal, you've heard other people i know. maybe you've seen some of those interviews or not. i was wondering whether, you know, you were waking up in the middle of the night after svb and signature and some of the other stuff and wondering whether your resolve that f inflation is really a big problem, more important than financial stability and full employment, do you ever question that, that very strident stance we've taken that we've got to raise rates no matter what as if killing demand is a good way, you know, to bring down inflation. i mean, that's the question in and of itself whether that's a good idea, jason >> a lot of things wake me up in the middle of the night, especially my children, but -- >> do they ask you about -- dad, why do you think we should raise rates? >> that's what they said

the longer this goes, the harder it gets. if the fed had acted earlier, we might have had less of a financial problem now. >> i'm not going to go there, but -- >> if it hadn't acted, we would have higher inflation now, even higher than we have. we would have nominal interest rates and bonds would have fallen just as much. we would have had all these problems it's just not -- i wish there was an easier, better way do it. maybe yell at the companies and tell them to stop raising prices. >> what does this count for with the credit contractions and things >> with the banks. >> a few days after it i said 50 that was just a wild guess right now it looks like it might be a little lower, but it could be higher than that, and i think that is the main thing the fed needs to look at now -- between now and the next meeting only the macro data will change our perspective that, you know, all these people you've cited before they keep saying inflation is coming down and being

transitory it just isn't. >> you just worry about the signaling issues you bring up at this point if the fed doesn't raise, people look at it and panic and think, uh-oh that means there's something really bad in the banking situation we don't know about yet. you know, it's a weird signal. the fed's caught in a difficult position. >> i agree with that >> jason, thank you. it's good to see you we'll talk to you soon. coming up, massachusetts regulators looking into insider stock sales by first republic bank executive we'll speak to massachusetts secretary of the commonwealth william galvin after the break, and as we head to a break, lchec out the s&p 500 sector leaders this week. "squawk box" will be right back.

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the closure of the bank? >> well, our main concern is for our massachusetts depositors and investors, you know, with svb, we have people standing in the street, unable to get to their money, trying to get into the bank with police officers. you may have seen the pictures in the "wall street journal," preventing them from doing that. our folks shouldn't have to deal with that, and we obviously do not want to see first republic get in a similar situation clearly there's enough evidence out there already that some of the strategies employed by first republic similar to svb were clearly risky. you know, over the last couple of weeks since we have had this crisis, especially since the congressional hearings, we've heard an awful lot about how everybody knew and federal regulators were aware of it. well, that's not a solution. the answer is let's get to the bottom of it let's determine what the situation is we do know in first republic, we have had a massive infusion of

capital from other banks, so there's concern. we have awareness of the fact there were significant stock sales by executives going back for several months leading up to the current time, and we want to explore that and see what both -- both what they said and did, and determine what the situation is we hope that obviously first republic will survive, but what we've said earlier, we've seen evidence in the past that the federal regulators were aware of it from the state perspective. our interest is simply making sure our citizens are protected. very often the federal government takes more time to get things done. sometimes the states are more nimble >> more nimble in going after -- meaning what if these are stock sales that were set up on a regular basis, which is what they've said to this point -- >> that's when they've said. >> what can you do about that? >> we don't know what they did until we get a response to our subpoena their attorneys have been in touch with think office. we expect they will respond and we'll examine it we're not pre-judging it, but there's enough reason to be

concerned, and the concern is really what has to be acted upon clearly the instability, and your earlier guest was talking about financial stability. that's extremely important for the country, for the economy, but it's also important for individual investors and depositors they need to be aware of the fact that their deposits, their investments, whatever their interactions with these banks are, are safe, and that's my mission. it's very simple i would be happy if nothing occurs and hopefully the bank goes on its way and continues to prosper. that would be good, but we don't know that, and we would be negligent if we didn't investigate. >> if you find that there was something amiss, that these were stock fails that weren't on a regular program, what would your -- what would your recourse be what would do you? >> obviously i do regulate stock sales in massachusetts we would be interested, and we always have the concerns of unethical or dishonest behavior if that were found i'm not pre-judging it by saying

that's the case, but i think that's important to get it out there. this bank didn't have to report to the sec because of the way it was held, and only had to report to the banking fdic, and it only points owe tut to the ano, malin the whole process. no one can dispute there's uncertainty in banking regulation in this country right now at time when we need some certainty. as i said, the i think the objective is to make sure our investors and depositors are protected. that's it. >> mr. goalvin, i know you have been pretty active when it comes to a lot of financial issues, going after robin hood at one point and wanting to revoke their ability to operate, going after mass mutual or one of its subsidiaries over the roaring kitty situation. what's your takeaway do you think there's a lot of things that are requiring a lot of attention >> i think again, there's a lot of uncertainty right now in the

marketplace. even to the extent of, what does the fdic cover i mean, there's this ambiguity coming from the fdic, from secretary of the administration. what is going to be covered? everybody knows we can't cover everything dollar for dollar and we probably shouldn't. on the other hand, people todon know they're not sure what's their future? that's the real issue, the uncertainty about what the lending practices are going to be which is a definite issue when it comes to first republic. those are all the issues that need to be addressed i don't propose that i should be able to determine all of that, but i'd certainly think since you asked me the broader question about what do i see i see a lot of uncertainty, a lot of conjecture, and very little ability for investors and depositors to know what their future is. surely we all know the economy is fragile at the present time, and we know there's an attempt at course correction in terms of inflation and obviously that has to happen, but i don't think

individual investors and individual depositors and individual citizens should have to pay the price more than necessary, and right now there's a lot of murkiness for lack of a better work when it comes to what we're hearing. >> william galvin, the secretary from the commonwealth of massachusetts, thank you >> my pleasure thank you. coming up, the number of stories brewing involving china, including the deal with brazil to ditch the dollar. we're going to speak to fred kempe, the ceo of the atlantic council about china relations and much more. check out the future we're up 63 points, up three now. > meoworbox" will be right now >>ti n f aftlac's trivia question in honor of national crayon day, what year did edwin binney create crayola

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welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. you're looking right now at some green arrows across the border dow futures up by 87

s&p up by close to ten, and the nasdaq up by about seven joe? >> as the eu chief called for tougher policy on china ahead of her trip to china next week, the european commission wants to introduce a new strategy on economic security. for more on china, more news is fred kempe he's the president and ceo for the atlantic council, and a cnbc contributor, and i see you everywhere, fred, but it's been awhile since you have been on "squawk box." it's good to have you on this morning. i was going to say since the last time you were on, has anything happened with our relationship with china of note? >> nothing at all. first of all, it's a pleasure to be back, and, you know, i'm seeing that where we are right now, where mutual animosity, hostility growing greater, and it feels to me like the period between 1948 and 1962 with the soviet union, and it took us

that period of time from the berlin air lift to the cuban missile crisis to get into patterns of behavior, arms control talks, summits, to exchange information that allowed us to navigate the cold war peacefully it was a dangerous period before 1962, and i think that's the period of time we're in now where a miscalculation could go seriously awry even if we don't want it to we have to be quite careful. >> you do need a flowchart, fred, because i can just think of just so many things there's an article, an opinion earlier this week in the op-ed pages of "the journal," that we're not prepared for war with china. even saying those words is frightening. we think of, you know, is our military depleted given all of our system that is ukraine what's the situation with taiwan what does strategic ambiguity even mean? what about the balloongate there's so many things, and the recent -- when president xi goes

to russia and embraces putin, and, you know, they start using different currency in south america in certain countries instead of the dollar. all these things make me wonder whether there really is something we need to be very, very concerned with in our future relations with china which are so important >> i am so glad you put all those pieces together because it all adds to an increasingly dangerous moment in the world's most important, most decisive relationship it feels to me there have been inflection points in the history, the end of world war i, end of world war ii, england of the cold war, and putin's war with ukraine has set off a number of those things, and president xi's trip to moscow last week was important in two respects first of all, he threw away any pretense of neutrality in the war of ukraine the president of ukraine's invited him to domcome to ukrai, but he hasn't even called him

after the meeting, and you mentioned the trip to china going in, and french president ma macron what xi's worried about and talked about in a speech this week is the creation of a new international order that china led, safer for autocrats, replacing the order that we or at least evolving the order that we created with our allies and partners after world war ii, and i think that's a big play, and he talked quite openly about that with putin and said it's the biggest geopolitical shift, and this is president xi the biggest geopolitical shift in 100 years, and the two of us together can shape it. so he's been -- president xi is being very public about that outcome. that outcome he's trying to get. >> against that backdrop, fred, we had -- we had tim cook go over to china. you can't overstate the importance of that relationship to apple i don't know what we're fsupposd

to do about that elon musk, can you overstate how important that is? business for -- for certain businesses, it seems like it's business as usual with china, and how do we separate out the ccp from the billion and a half chinese consumers we don't really have a problem with, and certainly want as trading partners it's really -- i mean, if something would happen there, it would make things a heck of a lot easier, but there's not much hope for that. we have been hoping for that for years. we're not any closer, are we, fred. >> no, we're not we're further away first, the political and then the economic on the political, it's 90 million members of the communist party, but we've gone from one-party rule to one-man rule xi jinping has centralized authority in mhis hands more so

than he has ever had until now he has the nationalist direction. it's slowing economically. it's demographically in trouble, and he could turn to a nationalist move on taiwan just to strengthen himself, and then on the economic side, you're right. we don't want to decouple entirely from china. what we want to do is keep the most, you know, important technologies out of their hands. you don't want a hostile country growing even more dangerous by more access to the highest technologies, but how do you do that, walk and chew gum at the same time? how do you do that and still have a relationship with china that works you want to deter rule over taiwan, and don't want to inflame that, and we're not really managing that as well as we could >> and i don't know what you think we should do with tiktok it's kind of, like, bipart isan

we need to ban until certain members of one parties said, wait a minute. those are all the voters we want, all those young people if we ban it, we're going to perm permanently, and suddenly the reality came crashing down, and oh, no we don't need to ban tiktok anymore. what's the line we should walk there, fred? >> i'm not the world leading expert on tiktok, but in general i would rather not do things in a banning kind of way, but rather spinning off, regulating, continuing but under a different form if the chinese are willing to do that the question is how do we get into habits to behavior where we can negotiate these things we don't want to have balloons. >> is it a trojan horse though, fred is it an insidious sort of brai brainwashing, destroying our youth and gathering all this information better than a balloon ever could is that what tiktok is

>> the one thing we know is tiktok under chinese law, if the chinese government -- if the party asks for that information, they have to give it to them, and so we're relying on the chinese parties, the chinese communist party's good will, that it just wouldn't do that, but look there's a lot of danger and a lot of other social networks it was not just tiktok >> it's all a cesspool, fred they want money for my blue check mark forget it. >> let's remember one thing. we and the europeans together have 60% of the world's gdp. china with russia have 20% to 25%. sometimes we make it this a larger problem than it is if we just manage the problem. >> say it loud and say it proud. you're darn right, fred. >> we're in total agreement as always >> as always thank you, fred kempe. sorry i said kempe earlier i have brain freezes we get to a certain age, fred.

you know, over 40, these things start happening more frequently. >> speak for yourself. i'm feeling very fresh when we come back, an adderall shortage has frustration building among those who need it. meg terrell joins us to talk about what's driving this? you can get the latest on our daily podcast. listen any time. stay tuned

after a three-day series on drug shortages in this country, meg terrell has received calls from viewers who can't find adderall, the drug that helps people with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder meg, how bad is it, and why can some find it and others can't? >> yeah, joe it's just this sort of lumpiness in the supply chain, but the shortages are for different reasons than the ones we examined earlier this week millions of americans, adults and kids take this drug, and this has been going on since last summer. it's seeing demand increases during the pandemic and increases in telehealth prescription of these, as well as involvement from the dea.

so according to the fda of nine manufacturers who make generic adderall, six are reporting tight supply two cite demand increases, and two say there's an ingredient shortage, and the estimated availability is the end of march to june. a report came out yesterday showing the availability of these prescriptions for stimlanlts it went from about 3.6% of all the people they studied in an insurance database back in 2016 to the biggest jump you can see during the pandemic and there were changes in telehealth youth and rules where people didn't need to see patients in order to prescribe these drugs. the common interest of need might have encouraged more adults with adhd symptoms to seek diagnosis and treatment we have been reaching out to the companies to try to understand what's going on here

teva is one of the bigger makers teva notes unpress dcedented de. sandoz expects the entirety of 2023 to be tight the dea controls how much of this ingredient that goes into adderall can be made by these companies, and so they have to request a quo a from the dea it increased how much it asked for, and it was only granted part of the increase this is expected to continue unfortunately, and it sounds like it's incredibly frustrating for people who really need this, guys. >> meg, how much of this also is an issue of off-label usage and people maybe who don't need it quite the same >> midterms. >> right >> finals. college. >> using it or if you are a

video game player. there's a lot of different populations where you hear of potential abuse with some of these drugs too. >> is it abuse even for studying >> i haven't seen good studies or data, but you can see from the data we have on the prescriptions which are on label, how much there has been an increase in prescribing of these stimlaulants and probably lot of this is contributing to this issue, and you've got the dea involvement here where the dea is saying -- we didn't hear back from them, but they're saying there is enough ingredient left to meet supply, to meet demand, but the drug companies are saying there's not. there's just this lumpiness, and again, a lack of transparency in what's going on in the drug supply chain that's causing these frustrating shortages. >> all right, meg. thank you. good series. >> it is stuff to think about we all run into. >> you do the series, and you

drum more. people responding to your series. >> maybe this can be a continuing series. i like it. when we come back, a check on the chip sector which is having its best quarter in nearly three years the futures this morning are up for the dow at least by about 82 points the nasdaq has turned positive too. it's up by five points s&p is up by nine, and we are counting down to the fed's favorite read on inflation that's the february pce. it's due at 8:30 easte te.rnim we'll have that number and the market's reaction to it. "squawk box" will be right back. why are 93% of sleep number sleepers very satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. so you can both stay comfortable all night. save $1,200 on the sleep number 360 i10 smart bed. ends monday.

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semiconductor stocks are up nearly 30% for the quarter there's a lot that kind of goes into the growth that we've seen in semiconductors. you want to lay out the base case for why you think the stocks have been up so much? >> yeah, good morning. thank you for having me. a few aspects of this, if you look historically, every time the semiconductor index has gone down by over 20%, we have had a nearly doubling from the lows. so if i look at when the rally started late last year, we are still only halfway down based on historical trends but the more important reason is why is this happening? i think part of the reason is anticipation of an up turn when semiconductor stocks peaked, nobody was talking about a recession and the stocks still

went down 30, 40% and now nobody is talking about an upturn they are trying to anticipate in a global recovery for the demand in electronics and investors realize just the incredible innovation that is being driven by they semiconductor names. in the whole move to generate a.i. language models and advantaged industrial automation, the move from ev from analog devices and all the money being put in the sector because of reshorting, it's a lot of innovation happening in the sector and i think there is a cyclical rebound anticipating the improvement in the global economy also >> i'll give you the argument about innovation it's clearly impressive what's happened here, but we haven't even gotten into a recession, to be thinking this is really tied to a rebound on the other side of that, you still got companies that are talking about cutting

back, you got technical companies laying off and the situation where lately a lot of this trade has probably been driven by people selling financials and looking for safety and looking to places like technology. would you give that argument any credence >> for sure. it's a cyclical sector and every time you forget it's cyclical, it has a way of rudely reminding us that it is cyclical it's important to note that the sector is driven by what happened six plus months from now, not what is happening now when it peaked at the end of 2021, still they are able to anticipate what might happen six-plus months from now if you look at the parts of the economy -- you mentioned the layoffs in the cloud computing and the data center, but look at where the investments are going.

even in that smaller buy of spending, their investments are favoring the move to a.i if you look in automotive, even if the auto motive unit might not grow, still, that is a move to ev and ev has quite the content. so i think a lot of it is based on the moment in content and that i think is a more important factor but i do agree with you, it is a cyclical sector, it will reflect some of the cyclical dynamics as well >> what are the geo political risks, with so many conductor companies being tied up in places that are very closely watched like thai want >> that's a very important factor and it is emerging even more given all the tensions between the largest designer of semis, which is the u.s. and the largest buyer of semis, which is china. any friction between the two is never good for the sector. i think this will stay an

overhang in semis for quite a while. it's hard to just look past it but it is also stimulating a lot of government investment so we are seeing the u.s. with over $50 billion reinvested by the government there are other versions from india, korea, china. all that money is going into the construction and benefiting others i think geo politics is a factor the reason is every country and region realizes it is so important to be self-sufficient of these building blocks of the global economy. >> is there a favorite stock you have among all these names >> yeah. i think the next several years the move to general a.i. and cloud computing and video stands head and shoulders one important reason for that

beyond just the trend is their ability to monetize the trend. it's not just a chip company it's not saying, okay, this is a chip and tore it out of the cloud companies. it's monetized by selling subscriptions and software and i think its ability to monetize is head and shoulders above everybody else in the industry we think it has the first trillion dollar market cap company in semis that's the one we'll look at for the next several years >> thank you very much >> coming up, senator jack reid on his newest plan to improve airline safety plus that breaking economic data we'll bring you the numbers as soon as they cross the futures ahead of that are mixed. the dow and s&p green and the

nasdaq down a couple of points "squawk box" will be right back.

good morning it's the final day of march and the nasdaq sonis on pace for its

best quarter in years. former president donald trump indicted in connection with a six-figure hush money payment to a porn star we'll bring you the latest details. and remember people fighting on planes during the pandemic a new law could land them on a new no-fly list. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box." welcome back, i should say we are live from the market

square dow futures are up by 60, the s&p up by 5, the nasdaq is down by just about 8 points the treasury market is still hanging in right now you have the 10-year we have an important number coming up in half an hour. >> and unless you live under a rock, you probably know this a new york grand jury voting to invite former president donald trump. you don't live under a rock, eamon. none of us do. >> reporter: i don't, i don't. it's right it's an historic first a former president of the united states under indictment and he's running for office he's campaigning to retake power. the former president issued a statement saying this is political persecution and election interference at the highest level in history

we don't have the specific charges yet just word from his attorney confirming the indictment we do know that the manhattan district attorney alvin bragg has been examining the circumstances surrounding a $130,000 hush money payment to former porn star stormy daniels back during the 2016 campaign. there could be charges around falsification of business records, around campaign finance violations we'll find out when that indictment finally is unsealed all of it raises the specter now of a former president of the united states being arraigned in new york city in a courthouse there, fingerprinted, photographed for a mug shot, even as he continues to receive protec protection the supreme court indictment

remains under seal not much detail there. we expect that to happen on tuesday. the one question no one can answer is how will this affect the former president's political support? will his base real or will we see trump supporters looking for another possible candidate out there? we just don't know at this point. anything is possible, joe. back over to you >> john mill are is a local guy, a cnn law enforcement analyst and he's saying it's 34 counts >> i know john he's a good man. 34 counts, i could think some other stuff would have to be thrown in there, too, valuing different properties either too much or too little based on tax is -- >> i was going to say the weird

thing about this is typically you don't find out about indictments until they're unsealed trump's attorney has been -- we know about the indictment but we have no idea what the counts are, what the charges are and what evidence bragg has here that will be in thein and they are scrambling to take sides on this, denounce it, support it and nobody knows what's in it. we don't know exactly what the evidence is here the guidance is we're not going to find it out today, which gives you another day of the news cycle unfolding with position papers and everything else with no actual information in it. >> you're right, aidan you're right and we got the p.c. coming >> never mind. let's get back to the markets on this last day of the first

quarter. our very own mike santoli joins us how would you sum it up? >> the last few weeks, it's the reason the market has been able to show resilience there was a radical repricing in both directions of this is at the end of 2021. with the 200-day average, we've kind of tested below it and then gone back above the longer trend line and that average itself is basically flat it's sort of a neutral range bound type of move but we have managed to stay above that it was kind of minor big news back in be january when we kind of held there, didn't go below

if now, take a look at the s&p relative for me and then you see this separation right here the overall system system and it's pretty significantis lagging it's a little bit more ambivalent here outside technology the big caps did reassert themselves they were the down size leader last year. and bonds have had this complicated relationship everyone seems to want to essentially say it's mostly been about lower yields and that why people flock to the big tech stocks lower yields means long-term

treasury prices are going up you see they're moving together right here but yields have done nothing since the beginning of february and you've had them go higher. it's about stability, maybe more clarity for those big tuck so this is where we greet the second quarterback >> i just talked to a semiconductor analyst. he's got a lot of things he's watching didn't seem like the pce was top of mind for him. >> if we get a in, maybe that tells us awful lot about the fed. february data is probably in some ways going to start to see a little bit stale because of what happened in the early part

of par saying don't count on us being done yet with rate hikes if you did have more of a push, you might have that line repeated even monday. >> we've been bringing you results from our latest deliver and what they see is the biggest risk to the market this year and misa a full-blown banking crisis violence and on the subject of overseas markets, our next guest says this could be the decade for emerging markets and international stocks she's deputy of the multi-asset group at morgan stanley investment management. she joins us from the game

forum, the largest student run. >> that's a swelled for much lower levels, i guess of development, emerging markets. >> are you able to hear me >> i don't think so. >> yes, i am >> oh, there she is. >> in a nut shell, why do you think emerging markets would be the place versus the move. >> sure. emerging markets the last decade had the worst performance since 1920 so the relative performance starting point looks very interesting. more importantly, all of this monetary success, fiscal success

that we're seeing develop wood, emerging markets have nod some of the people have that financial muscle, and i've seen him this last decade cleaning up rng and you and and also fundamentals related to the growth cycle emerging markets look at the, very interesting at this stage of the economic cycle and the market cycle >> that's interesting. i don't think you heard my original lead-in and that's what

i said, it's the developed nations that screwed things up so much, they can go to a chance to have all this prosperity and squandering by printing too much money. would you go all the way to frontier markets or is there the ones in between the most developed and the emerging markets, versus frontier markets. >> this is a very het row genius -- they're diversifying even outside of china, in other markets, maybe in southeast asia, lind but even in a smaller place, smaller countries, via

but a lot of the other markets even within the emerging market, benchmark. i have been down with this punching about the 30, 35% level. so we are seeing opportunity pretty much across the board >> i would say this is not for the rm and i guess a bath given currency orree owe hit. >> exactly i can say we like markets like india, which is a do reform story, a manufacturing story. the china plus one narrative, which is the reshoring narrative, which is leading to friend shoring and by some of the corp praets into the seld

thailand ind these are seeing the light of the day. their spots have often up so the loss of china's share in u.s. and boats have been taken on by om of soo and on the commodity that we'll see an up sakele a different pockets with different up side, be it domestic reform, political stability, kmedity, tail winds or even manufacturing in some of these india and economies like mexico.

>> thank you i'd like to give you thoughts about the microsoft and apple. we appreciate your point of view go ahead >> you said apples trillion, you can buy one and a half times on the market that's the dislocation i see in some of these numbers. >> you're probably right you're probably right. as i said, we appreciate it. thank you. >> all right still to come this morning, we have that breaking inflation data, but next, if you are an unruly pa on a u.s. flight he'll join us when "squawk box" comes right back

your brother has landed in the dark lands. they're under bowser's control. [ screaming ] hang on, luigi. [ ominous music playing ] [ screaming ] yes! fire! [ chuckling ]

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tsa no-fly list for unruly passengers the faa investigated nearly five times the number of unruly guests senator, it really was unbelievable from 2019 to 2022, there was a 600% increase in the number of these type of incidents on planes what's happened? >> we have people on aircraft who do not respect the simple rules of behavior. as you point out, there's been a tremendous increase. four years ago 150 incidents last year 831 incidents and that was after the mask mandate was removed. there was some discussion maybe it's the mask. it's not what's happened is we have unruly passengers and we don't have a consistent way to keep them off commercial airlines and

we heard from three night attendants, and they were hit, assaulted and psychologically troubled disruptive behavior at 30,000 feel can have fatal consequences >> anybody seeing this video that we're showing realizes this is an unsafe environment that the flight attendants shouldn't have to be bouncers of the air ways but i will say flying has gotten a lot more complicated and a lot less friendly and a lot less patient. is there a way if you do get put on the no-fly zone list that you can appeal it. you wouldn't that to be used as a weapon you don't want to see incidents where people are fighting and really being disruptive but i'm just saying there could be

instances where maybe it's not this severe. do you have an appeal proces >> you're absolutely right it's a very transparent procedural approach where an individual could offer mitigating evidence or make it clear that it was not their fault, et cetera and then there's a possibility of appealing and asking to be reinstated on the list we want to make sure it's not a process that's simply reflexive. we do identify those people who are real risks to air traffic and passengers and not someone who had a brief passing incident which will likely not occur again. >> what if it's a mental health

issue? >> i think a mental health issue, one, ironically people with mental health conditions tend to be a victim, not a perpetrator. but if that's the case, that's one of the mitigating factors. there can be a diagnosis that there is a mental health condition. are they being treated for it? if they're not, should they be treated? there might be an opportunity ironically for someone to get treatment that's needed. >> how likely do you think it is this bill pass snes. >> i -- passes >> i want to thank representative swalwell and senator durbin, the chairman of the senate judiciary committee has joined the bill. we are working hard to get other

co-sponsors. i think this is an issue that touches everyone because it affects probably more so with members of congress since we are usually flying two or three times a week. so i think what you get is people recognize that this has to be done and we can't tolerate this acceleration of incidents and, again, it's ultimately not just about a violation of a rule, it's about the safety of the aircraft in flight, which we don't want to gamble with. >> senator, thank you for being with us today. >> thank you very much >> coming up, the inflation data is coming up 4.7, remember that

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. the futures are a mixed picture. dow is up by 82, the nasdaq off by just about 8 1/2. let's take a look at the top s&p sectors in the first quarter one trading session to go. best sector. you probably get this by now, it's tech, up by close to 20%. it's on pace for its best quarter in three years, all the way back to the fourth quarter of 2020, indicated up by about

1.4% right now from when the market closed yesterday, leading names including nvidia, amd and salesforce the financials are down more than 7%. in our latest delivering alpha investing survey, we asked 400 contributor where he would be concentrating at the start of the second quarter a third said high dividend stocks, 22% said health care stocks followed by financials, mega cap tech and energy stock so you got the worst performers coming in a little better than the best performers. no, actually tied up 16% each would go with financial stocks or mega cap tech. up next, new inflation data and instant market reaction. stay tuned we will be right back. rvices son to integrate data management for all your clouds,

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. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're just seconds away from the new pce inflation data, the fed's preferred gauge of inflation. it was 4.7 last time, expected

to be 4.7 this time. the dow is up 87 points. that could all change in about 20 seconds the s&p up about 9, nasdaq down just a little bit. the 10-year note could also get some action along with the 2-year the 2-year is down at 1.58 we're going to get it. it's going to hit right now. steve liesman is standing by steve. >> joe, waiting on these numbers here -- there it is, just came across here. february personal income, 0.3% that's a little better than expected, a tenth better than expected that's all i have now on the personal income number here. i'm going to check the web site of the b.e. ooa.

i don't see the number there now. pce price index, a little hotter looks like the headline is 5%. that is down from 5.3 on the headline core p.c. index up 0.3%. that's a little less than expected how about that for february. january was 0.5, revised down from the 0.6 that was there originally overall price index 0.3% real consumer spending minus 0.1% that's a big miss. that was supposed to be up 0.2 -- sorry, supposed to be 0.3% i'm looking for the income number savings rate is -- let's see what the savings rate is i can get that 4.4 so that went up. let's see. one more thing if i can find the

spending number. there it is. minus 01 so that came down quite a bit. the idea on this whole story here, big, big numbers on income and spending in the month of january. they came down a bit it's still going to be good for gdp because we rose to that level and more or less kept that level. to the extent it didn't give back all of the january gains, it still going to be on track for a decent gdp number and it looks like the inflation numbers are a little better than expected, although still high. the fed still has a problem here there's a banking industry that's got some problems out there. otherwise it ought to be relaxing on rates but it has an inflation problem that's still pretty high. joe? >> the initial reaction, nasdaq is now up. the dow was up 90, now up about

130. the bitcoin move from under 28,000 back above 28,000 and the 10-year at 3.55, now 3.52 or so and the two-year, the yield has backed off a little bit. let's get reaction from this data from tyler goodspeed. i love when we say fellow. he's a fellow. and megan green, global chief economist. the initial reaction is a little bit muted, megan, but what would people that want a kinder, gentler fed, what are they trading on in there? anything in there for the kinder, gently people? >> i would say the data came in

a tiny tick below expectation. that's good news in terms of inflation not coming in red hot. unfortunately i don't think there's much in this report that suggests the fed will change its position or stance at all. so i would expect at least another rate hike from the fed the real personal spending was down a bit so you could argue maybe demand is down that should be on the margin, disinflationary. but it was right in line with expectations i think the fed will continue to hike full steam ahead, at least one more, maybe two. depending on the data we get further out on how much the recent financial instability we had impinges on growth and also that the banking instability will really stem loan extension. and there we just don't know

it could stem it a lot, in which case that would be a big headwind for growth, but it actually might not stem the extension much at all, in which case the economy is still pretty strong >> i don't think we've seen you since we had the events at sill i si s silicon valley bank. one of the porngimportant thing the stability of the financial system i guess i'm asking you, should inflation still be the most important thing for the fed? >> well, i think it is a dual mandate. it's maximum sustainable employment and price stability and insofar as financial

stability impacts full employment, then they need to care about financial stability look, we saw this movie before in the 1970s and 1980s when you saw a series of bank failures. you saw commonwealth bank, you saw first pennsylvania, you saw penn square, continental illinois and all the while you had this simmering savings and loan crisis. they all failed for slightly different reasons but the same underlying cause was the federal reserve battling inflation you have lend and extend, regulatory forbearance, you try to help smaller institutions try to grow their way out of problems and there was a lot -- i kind of suspect there will be a similar fudge today. they'll continue -- as megan said, they'll continue the fight against inflation but not quite enough to get price stability.

they'll continue a fight to achieve financial instability but in so doing will sweep a lot of issues under the rug and we'll generally get a lot of policy fudge with one hand they'll be doing qt and with the other hand they'll be increasing the money supplies >> my new first joke is how do you know an economist has a sense of humor and it's because they have decimal points is it real is it helpful? is it showing a moderation for inflation that the futures, they didn't go down they're not up sharply but the 10-year fell 5, 10 basis points. >> i'm going to completely agree with megan's read on the data but come up with a slightly more optimistic take on it, joe,

because of this -- let's not forget we've been slapped around by this inflation data, and it has been pretty disappointing on a monthly basis and then revisions that brought the whole level up higher than we thought and completely wiped out a lot of progress that we thought had been made. we don't know if these numbers will stay or won't be revised away but there is at least some positive inflation news that is going in the right direction, that we have a bum when you go up to the top of them and then come down, i kind of think it's good news. i would not break out champagne bottles. as you know, economists want to do quite often, joe. but i would say, you know, maybe we can think things are headed in the right direction again, which is what you would think

would happen after these very strong interest rate increases by the fed and the question becomes what does this say about how far the fed has to go when you have a good number, maybe you can think something less is needed, pile on top of that, what tightler and megan were talking about, which is what's going to happen to the credit channel and maybe inflation is looking a little more optimistic this morning than it was at 8:29 >> are you thinking about a lot of things, megan did anything come up listening to tyler or steve? >> yeah. i don't disagree with steve actually i agree that peak inflation is behind us and it's coming down but as powell highlighted, it's bumpy. i think still the inflation target is more than double what the fed wants it to be so the fed will continue to hike. i would disagree with tyler on the 70s and 80s being an example of what we're facing now only

because then it was because the fed was hiking rates aggressively this time around i think it was incredibly poor management with banks in the u.s. and in europe and with credit suisse the fed has stepped in enough to stem this. we can benefit from what we learned in 2008. i think policy makers have learned a lot of lessons so i do think we'll have more and financial markets particularly as central banks are shrinking their balance sheets i think they can paper over them much as the bank of england did last fall. we'll have financial instability ahead but i don't think it will be a massive crunch down >> there are other badly run

banks as well. when the tide goes out, you find out who is swimming naked. to steve's point, i think a lot of these financial condition indices may not be picking up the extent of action that's happened already by markets. what is the main criteria for lending? it's payment and debt to income ratios to a lot of borrowers, those rates look worse when the nominal rates go up. there a lot of borrowers who are probably not getting loans because the payment-to-income ratio is looking worse >> i've been trying to do a lot of reporting on this and talking to former fed officials and trying to figure out back in the great financial crisis what did they look at to try to determine what kind of impact you might

get from the credit typing that was out there, the answer was like there isn't very good data. there's the signature loan officer survey and other data. and tyler is right, it's central to bernanke's work that when it comes to bank lending, i guess one minus one isn't just zero, it's something like negative when the banks pull back, say they raise the interest rates, the effect on the economy can be in a situation of credit tightening, can be greater than just what happens to the price it's the quantity that is difficult to measure, how much less borrowing there is and what that impact is on the economy. it's the reason why you have this split among certainly some former fed officials and not yet any current ones but they're more worried about the effect of this credit and it

end up being bigger and greater than it might be just shown in the price or the interest rate of debt. >> i would say if you look senior loan officer surveys, they suggest that lending standards have tightened already by the end of january, pretty massively up to where we've been at peaks in previous recessions. there is a question about how much more they really can or will tighten and if you look at why the banks in the u.s. got into trouble, it's not really because of their loan books actually. it was because of. so there's no reason why they have to pull back on lending and providing loans in order to weather an instability now, particularically where the fed so it quite possible we'll get a credit kurch off the back of

this but it's not inevitable young that's. >> tyler, how many basis points will the credit con traction in the banking sector mean that the fed does not have to raise >> i think at a minimum a few tens of bips because it's mechanistic. it is remarkably smooth because of the rules of thumb and thresholds that investors use. when mortgage rates go from below 3% to 6, 6.5%, automatically there is a it just

means that fewer people, fewer businesses will qualify for loans. as steve was picking up on my point, that quantity adjustment is probably a big deal and not one that gets fully picked up in the financial. >> where's rick, steve do we know >> who knows could be anywhere. >> you know, rick does such a great job, he gets a day off every now and then and we all miss him, especially when it comes to doing the data. i got to tell you that as we head to break, you can now watch "squawk box" live in the morning on peacock

this is quite an honor we'll be right back.

we're watching shares of micron this morning. china said it will conduct a security review of the company's products in china. they want tone sure the -- to ee the infrastructure supply chain.

that stock is down by about 3.4% let's get down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer jim, it is the end of the quarter and you are talking about a great quarter for technology, semi-conductors in particular >> the irony that micron brought the suit knowing their intellectual property was stolen by china i think when there's a crisis in the banking system and people are worried about what's going to happen with the economy, what happens is that people buy the stocks that tend to grow without the strength of the economy. so they went right to tech this time i think we're going to look back and see the leader was nvidia, not a typical fang story. there's really a remarkable moment going on where we're back to this idea that apple can just creep up and no one talks anymore about whether there's too many components in the system there's just not enough

negatives. and there's a lot of negatives for everything else and people are taking it to heart >> that's why i wouldn't normally say something like the pce would matter so much for some of these stocks, some of these technology stocks, but i think it definitely does this time around. that stocks if you were looking at financials, it was the worst sector if you were looking at tech, it was the best, and that is not an unrelated story. >> no, they're the same. the fact that the regional banks were down 29%, that's why you go and you buy amd. i mean, these are companies that do well in a slowing economy, and it looks looks like according to micron, pcs, there's no inventory glutton devices are doing well, and you have compelling stories going on in tech. at the same time, do you want to be hostage to whether the first

republic takes money this weekend or not the way to deal with that is to say, okay. listen let's go buy some meta >> the pce number had been anticipated, but does that give breathing room for the fed or not? we had jason furman on earlier he said, look. even at 4.5%, that's pretty hot. it's not 2%. >> look. i think the fed is going to raise again. i think there are still guys hitting schwab every day, and for the most part, i think the fed's got to worry about inflation again, but not to the point where you want to sell meta, certainly not topt point where you want to sell these companies that are doing great >> what else are you excited about as we head into this last trading day of the week? >> i think that this is -- there's this amazing rally in

bit bitcoin. at the same time where you've got these going against the largest -- large exchange, and you have the sec doing what they can against coinbase, we'll speak to senator warren who is very concerned about this. >> yeah. >> bitcoin is -- bitcoin is being adopted all over the world, and we're fighting it in this country we have to find out why we're fighting it and why we're not joining it that's where i am. >> the conversation with senator warren is coming up. thank you. we will see you in just a few minutes. we'll be right back with what you need to know before the opening bell on wall street.

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recapping this hour's inflation data, core pce prices coming in a touch lighter than expected and the market did take part in that the dow futures went up, and dow and nasdaq went up as well joining me to talk about the markets is joann feeney. you think this is a situation where, okay. things are looking a little better i think you also think that the

banking crisis has been resolved at least at this point >> well, good morning, becky not entirely resolved, but certainly moving in the right direction as far as investors understand it. that doesn't mean there aren't certain banks out there which still have some balance sheet problems and we'll be watching for that the numbers are encouraging. things are moving in the right direction, and we have pretty substantial underlying service inflation in particular. i think investors should not expect the fed to ease off its rate hikes any time soon at the same time, with inflation moving in the right direction and the fed committed to getting it under control, i think investors are looking beyond the next few meetings to the recognition that eventually rates will be cut, and that becomes a tail wind. it's one of the reasons why i think we've seen the tech stocks rally so much at the beginning of the year. >> let's talk about that the expectation from most people we talked to recently has been that the fed will continue to raise a little bit you say they're looking beyond

the markets and rate cuts are coming this year or do you think it gets pushed out to next year and beyond >> hard to tell. obviously it will depend on the data whether inflation continues to slow, so we're not anticipating rate cuts this year, but, you know, still investors look beyond that you look a year out from now, and i think we'll be in an era of rates being cut, but the other thing in technology, right, is these technologies are seeing now the end of the pce decline, the smartphone sales decline. we're seaeing inventories start to clear, and the cloud looks like tit's going to be over soon that's a multiyear driver of the cloud and the generated ai pushing in video and others. that looks like an area of the economy with significant growth outpacing other sectors, and so i think it's, you know, it's in some recovery since those names came down all last year.

we're still not back >> we're not back all the way, but given the big gains we've seen in the stocks, you still like them even with the positive story line >> you have to be really selective, becky you mean, wedo like broad jcom which is a broader supplier. there could be further appreciation which is appropriate, and we have to make sure they're diversified because recession risk has not gone away we think there's going to be sort of, you know, a realization that investors also need to put some protection in their portfolios whether the company is like a target or a tjmaxx also look to summer. consumers are going to be traveling more as they have been look to a name like kc general stores others will go to diverse weather portfolios because we think it'll be a volatile years as expectations fluctuate.

>> just talking about that, would you even consider things beyond stocks just because of where yields have gone to this point? mix things up a little bit more? >> well, you know, the balance strategy that i run also, you know, gives our clients an opportunity to themselves, in what they want, and with fixed yields, becky as high as they are, a offers a lot of protection against inflation it's certainly a good, conservative place to go if you are sure that you need your cash flow now rather than later if you are a long-term investor, and you want to wait out the volatility, we don't see a reason to change that allocation because ultimately bond coupons are going to kind of keep up with inflation, but not really get ahead over the long-term. >> joanne, thank you very much joanne feeney. >> this is me. final check on the markets the futures are holding on in the gains.

they were up 60, 70, 80 before and the numbers we saw at 8:30, and then we moved up to about to where they are right now taking out the ten-year two. that did come down a little bit. the yield did on the 4.6 we saw for the core pce next tuesday, i guess. got that going for us. a lot going on politically, but we cover money make sure you join us next week. "squawk on the street" is next good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl and jim david faber has the morning off. the best march quarter in over a decade futures getting a bump here from lower expected inflation data both in europe and here at