call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan. hello, everybody, and welcome to "power lunch. alongside contessa brewer, i'm tyler mathisen market turmoil plus bond yields have some people sitting on the sidelines and taking steady returns on treasuries

we have a bull fight coming up, stocks versus bonds. we'll hear bulls on both sides. >> plus richard branson ceasing operation for the near future. we'll get to all of that. first let's check on the markets. finishing up the week with gains. there you're seeing green aus kra the board. the dow industrials up three-quarters of a percent. the nasdaq 1.2% higher on the day and the russell 2000 up 1.33%. let's get right to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the biggest movers. >> that's why i'm wearing a green today. the first quarter is coming to a close. nasdaq is the clear winner, over 15% higher, snapping its longest losing streak since 2001 the s&p up 6% heading for a second straight positive quarter. only the dow is expected to end flat for this quarter.

semiconductors, though, making some news with chinese regulators announcing they will review micron chips for security risks. micron shares are still up 22% this quarter trailing the smh etf which is a great barometer for the chip sector the much beaten down intel still the best performer in the s&p 500 this month and on pace for its best month since 2001. they like their 2024 product launch timeline. tesla higher today investors are buying into the name ahead of its q1 delivery and production numbers that are expected this weekend. the recent price cuts are expected to help lastly, shares of general electric trending 1% higher after settling patent disputes and getting a price target upgrade to $110 by morgan

stanley. shares are about $95 right now >> kristina, thank you very much as we close out the first quarter of the year, the word of the year so far has been volatility the fed's interest rate hiking campaign has sent equities scrambling while yields have gone haywire following the banking mess what is the better investment now? it's time for a bull fight on one side we have equities, largely outperforming this year with the s&p up more than 6% and the nasdaq 16% higher. best quarterly performance for that one in over two years on the other side yields have come down from their highs and are lower than where they starred the year but are still sitting at levels not seen for quite some time with a six-month t-bill paying nearly 5%. down from where it was but a nice return nonetheless. here on the equities side is

mike binger and maria shrinn maria, let me begin with you and clarify something here i don't want to suggest that by calling you the bull for bonds that means you are a bear on equities and think people should be selling equities and moving into bonds have i got that right? >> absolutely. i do not think that being a bond bull is a bear for equities. i think this is one of those periods where we can go back to the old fashioned asset allocation and have both asset classes because both have merits at this point. >> but what you do say is if you have incremental money to put this work right now given where yields are on bonds and a particular point in the maturity spectrum, we'll get to that in a minute, where bonds are now and where stocks are now, that the

incremental return you would earn from stocks may not be worth the increment to risk versus bonds have i got that right? >> absolutely. all we have to look is after the rally we've had this year where valuations and the equity risk premium are. stocks whether it's large cap are trading above their 30-year historical average pes of 16 times and right now at 18 times. small caps are almost 23 times and the equity risk premium is at the lowest we've seen for a long time at 2% where typically it's 3.5%. so it's very hard to make the case that new money should be going into equities at this point. >> where on the maturity curve would you be emphasizing investments and would you be going for quality, for high yield or munis if it isn't a taxable account you're looking

at >> we like the shorter to intermediate part of the curve because you can get higher returns with longer bonds or 80 to 90% of the return of longer bonds in the two to four-year intermediate maturity. we also like higher quality bonds. they are a safe haven. we think that they're a better place to ride out the unce uncertainty that we're seeing as opposed to higher yielding credits, where the credit crunch resulting from the banking stresses that we've seen over the past few weeks have not been fully known and not been fully developed. and so we prefer high grade bonds at this point. >> mike, bring it in for us. lay out your bull case for stocks and why we should be feeling confident putting our money where the equities are. >> all right i've got a bunch of reasons. i think we're in the ninth inning if not the bottom of the ninth of the fed increasing interest rates i feel once that's done, that should ease the strain on the

banking system i also think that inflation is going to trend lower and probably exit 2023 in the 4% area and, you know, i'm not as much of a bear on corporate earnings as a lot of people are i think we'll find that corporate america has got very expense conscious right now and that's going to keep earnings at an elevated level. as we look out to 2024, i think earnings stand a good chance of growing 10% plus so you put this good stew together and i think you have a market that will pivot in september, start looking into 2024 and you have an economy that's growing you have corporate earnings growth of 10% plus and you've got stock valuations that they're not bargain basement but they're not bad right now. so put an 18 multiple on 250 or $260 in corporate earnings is how you get to the 45, 4600 on the s&p 500. >> there is a lot of uncertainty right now.

i think you're hearing people feeling nervous about what's coming down the pike, more broadly about whether recession is in the picture. what's happening with the banks. what's happening with this rolling credit crisis and that toll that might take on the markets right here with all of those factors considered in, and you're right, the companies are showing some intense efforts on efficiency, which are being applauded by investors, but that means people lose their jobs and their opportunities that go down given that, given all the uncertainty, are there names that you particularly like where investments are concerned? >> yeah. i really like u.s. bank right here this is a top five bank with all this turmoil you know, their deposit base has actually grown they're right here in the midwest. we're in minneapolis, they're in minneapolis. they're a conservative bank, they're diversified, they're deposit based. when you can get a bank like that at a 6 or 7 multiple, i

think that's a good one to go on the second one i like a lot is google down here they're still dominant in search youtube is still dominant in video. people are getting way too carried away on this pullback over chatgpt that's so far down the road i think it's a good time to get into google right now, a dominant, secular growth name. >> all right, guys, thanks for the argument there it wasn't a argument it was widespread agreement basically. mike binger and maria chrin, thank you very much, we appreciate it. while tech is keeping the stock bulls raging, not every group is living their best lives. retail is struggling here trying to regain some footing with nearly every discretionary category weakening except for one, beauty. melissa rutko is here to talk about this what are you seeing when it comes to spending on this

category >> contessa, discretionary merchandise is pressured across the board, both in terms of sales and units. discretionary is down about 5% in both those categories, dollars and units. but beauty has stood out as the bright spot. along with groceries, that's what retailers are using to drive people into stores. >> we've seen a lot of retail look at high-end strength, the luxury market holding up and seeing weakness in the low end categories >> i spoke to dave kimball and there's a couple of things helping beauty some call it the lipstick sales. as the economy goes down, lipstick sales, beauty sales go up and it's a routine people got into during the pandemic they got into a skin care

routine and also connecting beauty to wellness and health. it's also making it resilient and sticky even as people pull back in other areas. >> is beauty tied to the level of tax refunds >> tax refunds are a factor here, but again, beauty seems to be holding up. but we are seeing tax refunds under pressure and that's bad news -- >> lower this year than prior years. >> yes actually on average tax refunds are trending around $400 less per person when you multiply that across people, that adds up quickly >> that's a lot of lipstick. >> it could also be a flat screen tv or some of those bigger ticket items until they get that surprise check in the mail or in their bank account. but again, beauty is a smaller price point so that could help it. >> is ulta a hot name?

>> it is definitely rising to the top and that's why it hit an all-time high today. >> elf is very affordable. i would call this like the teenage brand in the drugstore that you go in and every teenager can afford to spending their allowance on elf, right? >> yes, exactly. that's a very good point that's something that cuts across both ulta and elf when i spoke to dave kimball at ulta, he said we have across the brands price point so he said they are hedging their bets that way. with elf, for example, i spoke to their cfo and she said they are actually gaining more traction among older consumers who are looking to save on those beauty items too. >> i'm curious what you see in terms of trends here when we were talking about the return to the office, there was this expectation that everybody

would go out and buy new work clothes maybe to fit changing bodies from the pandemic weight gain or loss and maybe a decline in ath leisure, for instance, lululemon. we all got used to these zoom calls where you're looking at the camera and you can see yourself the whole time. in normal times you look at the mirror in the morning before you leave and that's it. >> when you're on a zoom, you're seeing yourself as you are, and whether that's a carryover now for beauty. >> i think that's a fair point and that's part of the reason why it's sticky too. it's one small thing you can do to make a difference maybe you can't afford that blouse, but you can afford that makeup, to put on extra eyeliner to make yourself pop and feel good even if you can't get a new work wardrobe. >> is the beauty going to help lift the macy's, the

bloomingdale's of the world? >> every retailer is laeeaning . dollar general is going to devote more aisle space to beauty and have more things like that front and center. everything from lip gloss to bath bombs so we're seeing the low and the high price point retailers lean in because they know people are still buying these products. >> i feel like this was a "today" show segment i really enjoyed the makeup chat melissa, thank you. >> thank you. coming up, breakups and shakeups jd.com follows alibaba in splitting itself up. richard branson's orbit shutting down. the health board members resign but don't leave quietly we'll have all the corporate drama ahead on "power lunch. at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management

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time for today's tech check. first it was alibaba, now jd.com splitting itself up. let's bring in deirdre bosa for more on this trend is this just coincidence it can't be. >> well, chinese big tech is not that dissimilar to our own big tech these are sprawling empires, many different businesses under one umbrella that have gained huge influence over different spots of the economy and collected a ton of data along the way.

no, this is not a coincidence. if this is the new playbook, jd.com and alibaba may only be the start. jd.com is the second tech company in a week to announce it's breaking up its businesses. alibaba was just a few days ago said it would split itself into six different independently run companies that could seek separate ipos. who else could follow? well, the biggest names in chinese tech if they so wanted to or if beijing wanted them to. take tencent, it pioneered the super app model but also has games, advertising, fintech, cloud, media it's one of the most active startup investors, taking stakes even in american companies, like epic games let's take a look at a few

others baidu. you can see this being a company ripe from this model pinduoduo, it is pushing abroad and expanding its logistics footprint.

>> well, they can say look at what we're doing for the private sector they're unfetterred. they can create thousands of billions of dollars in value through ipos they also reduce the influence and the data, particularly important the data held by one large conglomerate that's what happened to jack ma, right? he was so powerful that he was able to say things about the chinese banking sector that beijing really didn't like and that was the moment where they said, hold on a second, these companies, these ceos, these billionaires are too powerful, we need to knock them down a notch. >> so is there a sense that it is the hand of government of the ccp that is driving this in part >> absolutely from people that i talk to on the ground. the companies aren't going to tell you that. they're going to say they're unlocking value. but you have to remember that beijing has a hand in everything something we forget about, they also have a thing called golden

shares it's a very small part of these private companies that they take shares in and it gives them outsized power and even veto power. so if you're asking me, and i lived in china for a long time, beijing always has a hand in these things. >> deirdre bosa, thank you. netflix, it is continuing from a gross disruptor to a profitable operator, cutting back on movies and curbing password sharing plus the political toll on tiktok the controversial social miaed platform along with its parent spending more than $13 million on lobbying. we'll discuss both stories when "power lunch" returns. er colleg. ♪ finally we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna...♪ and then we looked around and said, wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller! (laughing) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse?

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welcome back to "power lunch" on this last day of march. markets rising to end what already was an up week let's bring in bob pisani for more on what's moving the markets. hello, bob. >> hello and i don't want to take anything away from the tech rally, but the character and the tone of the markets changing in the last week and i see cyclicals coming to the fore,

and that is a very good sign and has the bulls very happy let me show you what's been moving big this week i see reits, housing-related stuff like lowe's. i see home builders doing really well this week i see transports doing well. the airlines are having a great week j bb hunt is having a great wee. most importantly, autos, ford, advanced auto, general motors, all outperforming the market this is a very good sign overall when you see technicals moving, tech stocks moving, along with these cyclicals. take a look at the laggards, though a lot of tech stocks are not performing as well as the market alphabet and amd are down this week, not up defensive stocks like united health, humana, pfizer

clorox, kroger's, they're also down you see here cyclicals up, defensive stocks general low to the downside that's a sign of optimism overall. i don't want to take anything away from q1 for the tech. this is amazing when you get the five or six tech names moving 15, 20%. the fact that these are the biggest numbers out there, they move up so strongly, they themselves move the entire s&p 500. the rest of the s&p 500 is relatively underperforming in the last week the character of the market is changing and that's why people are feeling rather bullish right now if you take a look at the vix here, the most important chart for the month here, started at 19, went to 30 and back here to 18 contessa, the bottom line is it's a goldilocks thing. the market is anticipating a modest recession and a top in the rate hikes from the fed coming very, very soon they might be wrong but that's how they're reading it right now. >> bob pisani, thank you for that let's get a check on bonds

the yield on the 10-year is flat, about 3.5%, even as the pce, the fed's preferred inflation gauge rose less than expected early in march the 2-year yield spiked above 5%. during the banking crisis it had its biggest three-day decline since 1987. >> and let's check out the price of oil right now, up slightly today, right around $75 a barrel a week or so ago it was about $67 a barrel in the middle of march about two weeks ago, it was. that rebound in oil prices leading to a comeback in energy stocks and energy etfs as well the energy sector spider oil and gas exploration, vanguard energy all with big gains this week as you see right there. 6, 7% or thereabouts this data came from our partners at insight investors

we are pulling money out of funds. nearly $800 million of net outflows from energy etfs, however, in the last week. more information available on the ft wilshire etf hub. let's go seema mody for the cnbc news update. starting with weather, more dangerous weather is brewing over the midwest and south according to meteorologists from the national weather service's storm prediction center. an outbreak of severe thunderstorms that could cause hail, damaging wind gusts and tornados are expected to impact at least 15 states just one week after a deadly tornado killed dozens in mississippi. the environmental protection agency has approved california's sale to faze out diesel-powered trucks by 2040 it's to improve air quality in heavy traffic areas. wimbledon is reversing its

ban on russian and belarusian players. it is set to begin on july 3rd. ahead on "power lunch," lost in space virgin orbit failing to secure funding, ceasing operations. we'll explain how a once hot spac got to this point when "power lunch" returns. go. go air that runs factory. go sensors and software. go find leaks. go fix-em. emerson technology detects compressed air leaks to save manufacturers, like colgate, over 20% in energy costs. go brush your teeth. go boldly. emerson. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two

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welcome back the fix is in at netflix as the one-time disruptor works to reshape itself into a profitable juggernaut with staying power. that includes cracking down on password sharing, which atlantic equity says should provide a boost to both active users and revenue. also netflix is cutting back on its film-making ambitions, reportedly restructuring its movie division and scaling back on the number of releases to focus on quality, not quantity shares are on pace for their third straight positive quarter. here to discuss, gene munster,

managing partner of deep asset management it looks like there is a lot of hope that is being put now into this idea that you're going to crack down on passwords and suddenly all these people who have been glomming onto my paid account will go and start their own accounts what do you think, gene? >> i think a password crackdown is undoubtedly an exciting topic for a story that hasn't had a growth vector to it for the last couple of years. it's understandable that analysts and investors are looking closely at what this could ultimately mean. i want to quickly put some perspective around it. the number of people that are glomming on as you mentioned is about 92 million about 40% of the paid subbase. about 40% of those have free accounts that are glomming onto it most analysts expect that the crackdown will yield about a 10%

revenue increase over the next one to two years, which is good. if you take the best case scenario, which i believe that the best case, they get 40% of those 92 million to start to pay up, that would add just over 15% to revenue all of that is good. the problem is, that's a one-time bump. essentially it's a six-quarter bump and soon as investors always look, six, 12 months out, they're going to be talking about more difficult comps because of the password crackdowns and asking a question again, what is the true growth of this company. so understand that investors are excited. i don't think this is a reason to own the stock keep in mind the first time they mentioned this password crackdown was back in september. a lot of this is priced in. >> the change in revenue, i see what you're satisfying

the change in revenue would be a one-time bump. wouldn't you expect that many if not most of those people who open their own separate accounts would continue on? and so you get not only a one-time bump but you get ongoing higher revenue as a result of this. >> the revenue steps up to a higher base. they would have to add subs or increase pricing they could increase the pricing. so tech is about growth. ultimately the growth is probably going to have to come from continued price increasing which begs the question what's the real value here. the competitive landscape has changed the past few years so i think that it's going to be tougher for them to grow outside of this password opportunity. >> i'm going to do my one-person focus group with my mother-in-law and see if he'll buy her own netflix. we'll find out sit tight, gene, wee going

to shift years now cnbc.com reporting that tiktok and its parent company have spent more than $13 million lobbying u.s. lawmakers since 2019, an investment that appears to have gone nowhere given that congress just grilled the ceo amid discussions to ban the app altogether let's bring in the reporter that helped break that story, cnbc's brian schwartz so a large lobbying expense, but i can't remember a topic or a time, recently that is, where congress seemed as unified as it is right now about the idea of busting up tiktok or banning it in the u.s >> yeah, you're right, 100% right. this is something that is a bipartisan effort to attempt to ban tiktok we don't know if they'll get to that point the variety of bills that are being discussed in washington right now that could end up banning tiktok from being downloaded on u.s. platforms,

phones and the like. but right now there's a lot of chatter about a push in that direction. it's coming really as tiktok and bytedance spend millions of dollars on lobbying. in many cases, people we talked to shrugged off the lobbying efforts, the in-person and over the phone engagements to law marines on capitol hill or after some of these meetings, they would move forward with bills that could hurt tiktok and possibly see it banned at the end of the day so they don't have very many allies on capitol hill they clearly have a few. but it may not be enough to keep the company from being affected by future legislation. >> maybe they think of it as, well, if it's young people, young people may not be old enough to vote or may be less

likely to vote and i don't have to worry about them, but that ignores the fact that a lot of entrepreneurs have a revenue stream from their tiktok accounts. >> you're right. and evei think it really dependn who you talk with. people like jamal bowmans, he held a press conference around the time the tiktok ceo was on the hill that press conference featured many tiktok users. i think in the united states there's about 100 million tiktok users right now. that is a lot of votes for whoever wants to run for office. if you're a jamal bowman or aoc, ocasio-cortez, but on the other side of the coin you have lawmakers trying to get a ban because of concerns of national security surrounding tiktok and bytedance. these are the two debates going

on in washington right now as of today, the people pushing for some sort of ban on tiktok appear to be in the lead on this fight. >> when we're seeing this back and forth on tiktok, does it raise concerns for you about the broader issues with tension with china? >> great reporting today i think you did a great job of framing in the surface of everything that's going on, which is really important, and agree with his take that the momentum is moving against tiktok but below the surface i think there's a question about u.s./china tensions. this would be an escalation. this banning of tiktok would be an escalation, as at petty as i would sound between u.s./china relations. given what's happened in the last month, two months, that's something that the biden administration probably doesn't want to pursue right now

they're getting pushed towards that end but i don't think that biden is going to do it. i think there will be talk of it and ultimately he's going to want tensions to cool down fast forward six, 12 months from now to the next presidential campaign, i think this will be a unifying topic between both sides of the aisle on the presidential candidate and i suspect a tiktok ban will ultimately happen but i don't think it will happen in the next year. >> gene munster, brian schwartz, thank you both for joining us. up next, losing orbit. we'll look at the collapse of virgin orbit throughout the month of march we celebrate women's her heritage, sharing the stories of women in business and especially our cnbc contributors. here's the hallmark channel ceo. >> what makes me proud to be a woman is watching other women

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welcome back to "power lunch. a news alert on micron micron says, quote, we are aware the cyberspace administration of china has announced plans to conduct a cybersecurity review of micron's products sold in china. we are in communication with the cac and are cooperating fully. micron is committed to conducting all business with uncompromising integrity and we stand by the security of our products and our commitments to customers. micron shares have fallen now almost 4%. all right. two once darling space spac companies getting lost in the space race virgin orbit, a satellite

launched service owned by richard branson's virgin group failing to secure funding, ceasing operations and laying off almost all of its workforce. this isn't the only space odyssey that is struggling virgin galactic down 64% the stock traded as high as $57 a high currently sitting at 4 a company once touted by major investors. for more on virgin orbit's collapse, let's bring in cnbc.com space reporter, michael sheets michael, good to have you with us just for clarity sake, i can't pronounce it, but whatever virgin orbit does what virgin galactica does what >> virgin orbit is a spinoff from virgin galactic virgin orbit launches satellites up into space, whereas virgin galactic is a space tourism venture taking people on short rides for a few minutes of

weightlessness very different on what they are trying to achieve. >> what has the success or failure been of virgin orbit they're seemingly unable to make money with what they're trying to do. >> they actually have a decent success rate their six missions that they launched, four were successful their demo first was a failure but privately developed rocket companies, getting to orbit at all is a great achievement. >> if i'm renting space on that rocket to launch a satellite and i just got a two out of three chance of success, i'm not riding that horse. >> over the long term, absolutely not you'd see insurance rates go up for something like this. but for them it was really a story about not launching quickly enough they weren't hitting the launch cadence they needed to generate the revenue to sniff

profitability. and that unfortunately has gotten them to where they are today, which is really on the blink of bankruptcy. >> so richard branson i see owns 75%. who else is going to lose money on this? and what does it mean for the broader industry >> so the other folks involved, you were talking about retail shareholders on a company that's been a penny stock for a while now. you've seen the sovereign wealth fund who's also invested in virg in galactic, they were a heavy investor with 18% equity ownership. now, an important thing to think about, over the last few months, branson secured his position fairly well offering debt raises over a period of time where he lent the company about $70 million. that puts him first in line in terms of the value of that asset, which is somewhere of the ballpark of $250 million in terms of actual tech. >> is this game, set and match

for virgin orbit or could they come back? >> it could take someone who is willing to put themselves out there. even if the technology is there and the airplane they use to launch their missions is still there, you're talking about losing a lot of talent that is going into a talent hot and competitive market, especially in that los angeles area where we see space x, rocket lab and others who are all craving this type of engineering talent that's going to be going seere. >> michael, thank you. michael sheetz. a big quarter for tesla. we'll trade the name and oether in today's three-stock lunch

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more upside and i would like to see continued money flow into this area that we're seeing right now and with the break and the overhead resistance we've seen this week we have more upside >> danielle, we have drained the cocktail glasses thanks to you we appreciate it thanks and up next, the investor

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plummeting today following the resignation of three board members, one of them heads up starwood capital, was particularly scathing in his resignation letter which he released publicly. he writes that his interests are 100% aligned with shareholders he points out he personally invested $50 million of the $1.4 billion total raise. sternlicht concludes the management team spent nearly all of it without showing any improvement in core profitability. he writes i do not believe marlo hernandez, the ceo, should remain chairman and ceo of the company, and goes on, i have never witnessed such poor corporate governance at any company let alone a public company. in a public statement in response cano says the three directors are focused on the short term and it accused sternlicht of being reckless exposing the board's confidential internal deliberations which it says

undermines shareholder confidence the company says it will focus on cost discipline, efficiency and free cash flow i did, tyler, reach out to both marlo hernandez and the chief officer for comment. i have not heard back, but i have had the opportunity to interview them several times the last time in september after there was news that humana might be considering buying cano health and we saw the stock rise at that time hernandez played coy about it and said it's a great partner. there was also rumors about cvs health being interesting none of that has come to fruition >> for those of us who don't know cano, what do they do >> they have health centers in some seven states. basically what happens they'll take a fee, mostly medicare or medicaid, and then with that fee they're responsible for all the costs of that patient, primary health care, mental health care. >> go to their facility? >> they go to their facility

if the person has a hospital stay, cano is on the hook for that cost. if you treat people holistically, they won't have to go to the hospital, that you lower the cost overall. >> more emphasis on prevention than curing. okay good to have you here. >> it's always fun to be with you. >> thank you for coming. thank you for watching we appreciate it >> "closing bell" starts right now. thank you very much. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner post 9. this make or break hour begins with stocks on the run again and about to close out a strong quarter for your money here is your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation and in the first quarter dow up nicely today, basically flat on the year the story is really elsewhere. s&p 500 up more than 6% over the past three months. and as you know by now carried primarily by tech which has been the standout for sure. speaking of that nasdaq, a stunning 16% gain, the