sell rating, we have said sadly 3m is uninvestable at this point. we think the market is not fully calibrated, and sadly that's where they are. >> dean, great to get your picks. that's going to do it for us this friday afternoon with all the major averages finishing the day higher next time i sigh it will be april. historically, seasonally, a strong month for stocks. that's going to do it for jt overtime." "fast money" beginning now. morgan, thank you very much. indeed, "fast money" does begin right now. welcome, everybody a blockbuster first quarter in the books for technology, so will april shower investors with more gains, or is this trade about the a come back to earth plus, a flawless start to the year for the beauty stocks how long can these record breaking performances last we'll debate that one, and later, one of our traders is riding his fame to stock market fortune. we'll break down the "fast

money" acronyms three months into the new year. in for melissa lee, i'm tyler matheson welcome, everybody this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, guy adami, jeff mills steve grasso joins us from his estate somewhere in west chester, the baa ron is up there. markets closing out the first quarter near their high of the session. the nasdaq jumping 1.7% to mark its first quarter since june of 2020 the s&p 500 up 7%. even with the do you with its gains clawed its way back up in the green, 415 points. take a look at what is leading the charge it would be technology, communications services, and consumer discretionary sectors, all up more than 15% so far this year on the no so bright side, you

probably knew this -- the financials, worst group in the s&p 500 in 2023. the regional bank index putting in its second worst month on record but there's one reason to be hopeful as we get ready to kick off april. we're about to enter what has historically been the best month of the year for the dow according to the stock traders almanac. rising 2% during the month after all the action we've already seen this year, how do you get ready, guy, for the second quarter be the idea that april is a sweet month >> this group of four, you picked the exact wrong person to talk to, because i have been a skeptic for a while. here we are with s&p 150 handles above the 200-day moving average. nasdaq never went through it tim talked about this for a while. as long as the nasdaq leads, s&p is going to be fine, and that's what's happening we've seen 2% day given what we've seen. so i'm not sure.

vix concerns me. bond market volatility continues to concern me. we're coming to an earnings season, and i don't think it's bong to be particularly good, but the broader market does not seem to care whatsoever. >> steve, what do you think as we head to the next quarter? >> as long as we stay above that 200-day moving average, at this time market is going to continue to move higher we've seen tremendous volatility, and to tim's point about the nasdaq, this market cannot move higher without large cap tech it's too big of a percentage of the overall market, tyler. >> indeed, tim, it has been large cap tech that has led the way. it make up a high percentage, as steve pointed out, of the s&p 500, of the nasdaq 100 you can't make progress on those broad indexes unless tech is partying. >> and i think this is a great run. i think somewhere in this period

structurally the markets composition is going to change, significantly over the next three to five years. right now, this is the market we have these are effectively treasury stocks, stocks with pristine bullet proof balance sheets through difficult times. growth at a reasonable price it's a relative conversation but yeah, the move of 18% of the nasdaq in the first quarter -- by the way, this is your bull market nasdaq. from december 28th you're up 3%. that's a bull market in a bear market a lot of this is sentiment, and i think that's the dynamic that takes you -- you outlined the seasonables in april people probably heard this, ten out of ten times we were down, you're up in april and up for the rest of the year i don't think this is any other year i know every time feels different, and i medium term feel quite cautious, but yes, until long duration trades or technology stop outperforming the brick and mortar -- and again, value trades don't really

work when you're looking for value. i'll say that. and i think some of this continues to go. i think energy is due to catch up, but i also think on the here and now, regional banks are not what you should be taking your cue on when you're look at airlines and resource stocks and looking at industrials you should trade those right now. >> jeff, what do you say here? nasdaq highest since august. best first quarter for nasdaq since 2012 can tech keep going? >> it's been sort of interesting, tyler, in the sense that tech was in the lead when rates were going up and the market was going up, and it outperformed as rates were coming down and market coming down, leading on both sides, which is a little bit unusual. i think it goes back to my thesis that early last year -- it's paid off more of late, but really it's what tim was saying. we're going into the cyclical slowdown, and investors are huddling in names where they think they can maintain some

semblance of earnings growth even as the economy continues to slow i think that's a big part of it. although we've all been negative i'm not a bull by any means, but i think this rally could continue for a few months. earnings stabilize because the economy's been stronger coming into the year. that all plays into it my concern is valuations have moved a lot. i'll use meta as an example. coming into this year, meta was trading at, what, 15 times now it's trading at 20 times the margin of error was smaller than it was, and i think ultimately the reality kicks in that the economy is still slowing, risk of recession, and earnings estimates are going to come down. >> steve, you want to jump in? >> yeah, just a couple things to put a bow on it. you also have a presidential election cycle theory, too, that the back half of a first termer always is better for the markets because they want to load up the

marketplace with economic friendly policies. and i get that we have a hybrid government right now, but look out for that number three, you're going to have rates -- rates were a head wind for technology stocks now if you see that rates have topped, then technology stocks bottomed and to tim's point, the safety in numbers, safety in balance sheet on the tech names, so all those things are going for the overall market the bear case is running out of theories to present for the overall market, so bullish >> so bullish there. you point to the presidential election cycle i think the third year, as you allude to, i think the third year of presidential terms is typically historically the best of the four years. guy, you mentioned earnings, which are going to start coming out in ten days or so. what are you looking for there you talked about earnings maybe coming down a little bit. >> guidance. do you have visibility and what

the guidance is. i understand the book. tim outlined it as steve as as well it's right to be bullish wrong to fight this. but i'll tell you, much of this move higher in the broader markets -- multiple expansion. it's not because things have all of a sudden gotten better in terms of earnings and revenue growth that will continue to decline. people will pay more for a dollar's worth of earnings not sure how long that can last. >> john vogel taught me one thing i've never forgotten there are three components to a stocks return. one is a dividend, growth, and speculative expansion of the multiple is the investor willing to pay more per dollar of earnings? if that doesn't deliver -- >> there's not any debate about -- we shouldn't be paying for stocks in an environment where interest rates -- whatever you're going to measure, but a discount rate for stocks is up

dramatically i think this is about playing through cycles and the opportunities you have $43.50 on the s&p is not a terrible run the seasonables -- i believe in a lot of these seasonables i think may is going to be awful because we're going to get back to a place where we're going to rally 20% off the lows and it's going to be type to take a breath. earnings are not going to be great. there's no reason for ceos to get out there and tell you life is going to be great. >> let's move on let's change in carter of worth charting what are you seeing? >> it's been all multiple expansion. we know that to begin the year, the s&p 500 tech sector is trading at a multiple of 22. it's now 29. stocks index trading at 15 is now 24 the earnings will have to deliver otherwise in principle you'll get the echo of this run

up, which is some sort of give back for what it's worth -- it's not statistics it's stock fitters almanac you can buy at any store. if q 1 is positive, april is positive, 71% of the time. the q 1 is egg intive, april's negative 58% of the time what we know is momentum is a powerful thing q 1 that's good, it follows in april. unconditionally, all aprils going back to 1929, aprils are up about 65% of the time you see the stats on the screen. what we really is a bifurcated market the question is -- you guys discussed and debated it is the move into former laggards -- remember, the nasdaq 100 had its first negative total return here in 13 years last year so, is the move back into those names, is that a bullish thing because there's a big weight it's bullish or is it the face of fear? meaning that kind of multiple expansion is people hiding or doing what is good technique,

going to higher ground in the event that there is a slowdown ahead. but consider the fact that the s&p itself is up seven, but the equal weight s&p is up two or the fact that tech and telecommunications, both up 20% plus when you have energy and banks and financials down 6% almost 3,000 bases point of spread that is all very behaviorable and for some reason it makes sense. things are getting dodgy, the british expression goes, you seek safety. my hunch is it's right to take profits if you have them. >> profits if you have them. how does that feel to you, jeff mills? take profits if you have them. >> i certainly agree unless you're a particularly nimble investor and you can play the move that i think we might end up seeing in april, i agree, because to tim's point, things start to crystallize about the economic and earnings picture and once again we have a problem, because i don't think these valuations are going to be

supported. last thing i'll say, i know people talk about rolling bear markets, and it's good for the index and it certainly has, good for -- with the rest of the market left behind what about when the bear rolls on that could be an overall drag, and i think that's what we might be in for. >> steve you want to respond or tim steve, why don't you go first. >> to comment on the trading cycle, we definitely have the ebb and plow, and when we look at a chart on the s&p, tyler, we have to break through that 4,200 mark in the s&p or else all this is just another trading exercise and we slap right back down. what made me worried was when the market broke, the 200-day moving average, and we rallied above that while the market is above a the hundred-day moving average and inching closer to that 4,200, i

don't disagree you should take profits women saw a huge sell-off but understand where your bull barometer is, and that's 4,200. >> tim. >> brits have funny things -- why are french fries chips why is an elevator a lift? >> let's leave it on that note. >> why not been a great quarter. >> carter, thank you we'll see carter later >> coming up rrk the traders conquering the year with their "fast money" acronym trades. we'll divulge who's on top going into the second quarter. first, why the mic magay be in the makeup for retail investors. a look at a winning trade andn a challenging space. more "fast money" is ahead

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and elf shares up nearly 50% this year as of friday's close i spoke to ulta's ceo at shoptalk he said he's confident the sales will keep growing because beauty is resilient in joudownturns an they're an affordable luxury other retailer trying to use beauty as a foot traffic driver. target adding ulta, kohl's adding -- >> i love how they blend my makeup it's the blend. >> the exfoliation you're going. >> that was a knock on me.

you didn't realize it, because i'm a big exfoliation guy. >> i don't have to point that out. everybody knows it. >> i will say, i use the st. ive's products i go to ulta jeff, i'm going turn to you first because it said i should turn to you first. are you buying the beauty trade? over the past six months i can't think of another stock i've heard other than tesla that i've heard in more people's buy lists, portfolios than ulta. everybody seems to love it. >> i'll tell you why they told to you turn to me. i have three girls at some may we we took a field trip, and we this photo is a result of that i'm a much better father than this indicates the store was crowded and i do like the stock if you look back a number of

months ago, the stock was trading around 50 at a p.e. of 33 now it's trading at 22 times not especially rich for the stock if you look at its own history, and i think there are tail winds relative to this particular area of consumer. i think back to office, people going out. this stuff runs out and they have to buy more, and i think they have a superior margin profability profile than some of their peers them stock has had a big run, but on any pullbacks i'd be a buyer. >> the great exfoliater. >> at my age you want to exfoliate. they reported march 9th. the inventories up 6.8% year over year against sales growth, which means the margins will continue to improve. jeff is right, it trades at 20 1/2 times next year's numbers despite the fact the stock has been on a huge run

analysts will start upgrading the stock. karen loves this as well i think it will go higher. >> what you've seen is an explosion in the earnings growth i'll just say, i think they get too much credit. it's well priced in their loyalty program. they're well ahead it's a unique shopping experience we all know this i think it's in the price. >> ahead on "fast money," we're going to check in on our 2023 acronyms to reveal the trader crushing the competition so far this year. the early leader in the acronym contest next. throughout march we celebrate women's heritage on cnbc with this time contributor stephanie lynn >> i learned very early in life the importance of financial independence a found a job that helped me get there. it's empowering, it's challenging. it's also a sense of freedom it's possible to have it all, to have a career and to have a

family follow your dreams, stay focused. anything is possible

h. westbound to "fast money." we wanted to check on how our traders' acronyms. there was a clear winner in q-1. drum roll, please. >> whoa! >> there it is. >> the general it is jeff mills f.a.m.e. afraid five below, amazon, meta, and eog resources, surging an average of 26% since the start of the year.

meta's 70% jump really driving that one higher. eog, the only dragger, down about 11% on the year. jeff you still like these names as we head into the next quarter? >> yeah, maybe i'll just quickly hit on the biggest winner and biggest loser. i mentioned meta earlier it has gone from 15 times to 20 times but the story is generally the same the high profitability, cash flow i would tread lightly after the move i would not be selling here terms of eog,th you see a rotation back in that direction. just a general big rotation out of last year's winners so that was all in play. but at the same time energy is stipthe cheapest sector on both absolute and -- basis. oil prices with stable some i would not totally abandon names like this. i would like to see it above 120 for more confidence. >> steve, your acronym was j.u.s.t., j.p. morgan, s.t.e.m.,

and tesla. you sticking with them >> after i think of the performance it was must m.u.s.t., and that's meta. maybe i should have changed that and hooked around that one yeah, the s.t.e.m. play and united health have not been my friend obviously tesla's up close to 70% year to date, so that's been the winner j.p. morgan, all things being equal, only down 3%, but i'm taking the hit on the umh and s.t.e.m. play, which is screwing the acronym up once again, m.u.s.t. would have been better. >> honorable mentions in our acronyms. >> that doesn't sound good i don't even make the honorable mention list. >> you don't

karen's f.l.a.m.b.e. taking the third spot up 7% we'll keep updating the standings because we know you want it and see who come out on top. >> is that a british term as well >> yours was l.a.g.s l.a.g.s. in a stock picking. >> i appreciate that, and it's one name that's really killing me, but as the reigning champion, i have to acknowledge it's not been a great start to the year. >> what's the one that's killing you? oh, lyft. >> the l. in l.a.g.s. is a lemon. >> should we go to our final trade? let's go around the horn steve you get to go first tonight. >> i'm sticking with tesla not saying you have to run out and buy it now, but tremendous rebound off the lows they have the battery factory. so i think there's still more

bullishness behind tesla. >> jeff, you get to go now >> yeah, lean into eog i think you get a rebound. >> all right, tim. >> how about delta airlines? i think not a bank stock, by the way. i think you play this rally back from those lows. >> that's your pick for the night. we've got a few seconds. >> we do if i had a pick an acronym for you it would be h.n.s.m., hansom. eaitt's not an acronym. >> yh is. >> it's an abbreviation. >> gentleman, thank you for having me. that does it for "fast money." don't go anywhere. "options action" is up next.

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good evening, everyone right now on "options action," after a strong start to the year, the market is set to face its next big hurdle -- earnings season and first up, the banks. we will start the course ahead on them. is now the time to send your money abroad the eem trade hasn't been great this year, but could it bloom as we spring into the second

quarter? and