tv Mad Money CNBC March 31, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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but as long as the qq,s are outperforming the spies this market is going to continue the creep higher watch the dollar that's your barometer. >> mike, you get the final call tonight. >> yeah, upside call options in the s&p are a cheap way if you're going to try hey, time to make you a little money. i'm here to teach and explain how days like today could
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happen because holy cow. call me or tweet me@jimcramer. thenasdaqjumps1.74%. thismarket this market is nuts. a month ago we get this bizarre deposit crisis because some banks didn't invest right and we prayed the fed would stop raising interest rates so rapidly. the news was just bad enough, the losses just frightening enough chief powell only hit us with a quarter of a point rate hike. if anything, deflation suddenly became the watch word. the debacle caused many a hedge fund sharpie to go short this market or leave it to the sidelines. feels a bit like a distant memory. i would argue schwab is in better shape and has better options now than it could
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realize, profitable, decent franchise. nobody is declaring this crisis over, not by any means, not with the unrealized losses of 600 million on the books, but because things have slowed down. everything about this fiasco seems a bit more manageable, which brings me to our game plan for next week where we're back to worrying about a too hot economy and whether the fed will go back to bringing more pain. that's why on monday when we get some manufacturing construction data, the bulls have to hope we see some sign that things are slowing. this is rate hikes, not banking issues. i know it's dopey to go from credit to worrying business is too good, but that's exactly how binary folks on wall street think. anything below 50 on these indices might give the feds some breathing room. tuesday we'll find out if the mini banking crisis is truly over and if the economy is defying all attempts to slow it
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down or at least that's what i fear when i see the president of cleveland fed speaking. i think she'll keep saying the economy is overheated until we get a serious recession. that's the interesting thing. she's never cared about the impact of her words on the stock market. i don't like that she seems so detached from the day-to-day credit i vissisitudes. we want factual, not theoretical and want to understand the day-to-day pressure a person trying to meet a payroll faces because of all these issues in the system. they are detached inform for her to make it sound like she's looking at a barn burner of a national economy. that's just not a good read of what's going on. wednesday we get results from conagra. last time they said they were at a good pricing zone after
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multiple price increases. they made it sound like they might be done hiking prices at the supermarket. we got to hear they stop raising prices, but we want to hear volumes are good and the customers seem satisfied or else the stock won't go higher. right now wall street loves companies that make their numbers by raising prices. we need to know if that's the case with conagra. wouldn't that be terrific for the maker of slim jims and lots of new clients, by the way. look in your pantry, there they are, so many household brands. it's bad news when everybody in every industry is raising prices like this at the same time. the market loves individual companies that does this, yet it hates it when everybody does it because that's called inflation. i can't overstate the importance of some consumer packaged goods companies hold the line on pricing. we have transportation costs coming down. what if conagra said you know what, consumers, we're giving
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you a break. sometimes stocks tell you how things play out ahead of time if you're a stock whisperer the way i am, which is why i'm concerned about the stock of constellation brands and what it has to stay with the liquor and beer company on thursday. this stock has been acting suboptimal even on good days like today when still one more analyst raised the price target and it meant nearly nothing. how can that be? you might wonder when modell and corona are responsible for most of the growth in the beer category. no matter, this company has gigantic cash flow. that's why i've always liked it and i'm convinced you have to own it even if times get tough. we've got all these different earnings, but you know what? it's such a quiet week it's also two of the biggest analyst meetings of the year in one day. walmart and fedex speak wednesday. i bet there will be very high
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bars pet and that the ceo of walmart will say his e-commerce strategy remains the same. keep walmart in the race, low cost solution for food. not amazon. they need whole foods all over the place to beat walmart. for me fedex i think the ceo has seen himself as a winner. see where that stock's going? i'm saying it could go up another 50 points. that's how good that company is now. you know what's the hottest food stock there? this is a funny one obviously or else i wouldn't set it up like that. i say it's a company that's seeing possibility in potatoes. take those potato eyes like your mom would cut out and you plant them. lamb weston makes all types of fries, sweet potatoes and more. the company was 6.6 million in value when it was spun off six years ago and is now almost the same size as its 17.8 billion
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former parent. who doesn't want to make money off of spuds? also thursday we hear from levi- strauss. we know the category has come alive lately from results from lululemon. where will levi-strauss fit in? i think they'll be with the other winners in the category, but these others are so much easier to own. i really thought calvin mcdonald did a great job on the other day after the blowout quarter. i think that stock is going higher. you want a realistic view what needs to be done with this company other than the economy? we'll get it from this man. i like listening to the president of the st. louis fed. he's a treat because he's not dogmatic. he'll give us a live update about the impact of the silicon valley bank failure and the u.s. economy. he's self-critical, self effacing, my kind of guy. finally, the market's
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closed for good friday, but the labor department will release its payroll numbers. i believe march showed wages held about the same, but it's possible with the economy still expanding at a pace that's creating more jobs than we think and it may make j. powell uncomfortable. given again we are focusing on the economy being too hot, we might not be too happy with what we see. bottom line, if the banking situation is resolved, it's back to being terrified of an overheated economy that triggers more rate hikes. that's what you have to keep an eye on this week and the week after that and the week after that. you get the picture. meanwhile, what a quarter. take that, you bear. kurt in illinois, kurt. >> hey, kurt from illinois. how are you? >> hey, kurt, what's going on? >> first time long time. i'm a club member. going to be retiring very soon looking for a high yield stock
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for income. does blackstone fit the bill? >> yes, it does, jonathan gray, who is a remarkable just a money magician is out there making money for you every day, 4.4% yield. i think that's a great choice. i hope you enjoy retirement. let's go to bryan in illinois. >> bryan in oregon, but that's okay. long time club member and i want to make a shout out to jeff marks. >> saw that oregon, i missed it. jeff is fantastic. yesterday he fell off a ledge, just hurt his knee. what's going on? >> this company has leveraged defense and there's still a war going on. they announced a stock buyback and dividends. yet the prices have been going down ever since. what are your thoughts on l3 harris? >> i think don't like it, but i do favor
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lockheed martin if i'm in that cohort. i will thank jeff. i'm just joking. jeff sits next to me. we sit in this very little office and have a great time, but we do work nonstop. i'm so glad he's getting the recognition he deserves. he is a terrific guy, six years now with me. sonny in illinois. >> hey, jim, a big investment club booyah from your long time fan sonny in chicago. >> thank you. what's happening? >> happy friday, partner. you know the drill. i'm interested in a company that i think can benefit from all this talk about banning tiktok, you know, i think are they chinese people or something, tiktok? the company i'm interested in, they've got 375 million active users. it's snapchat had. so i'm wondering what do you think about the growth
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potential of snapchat? >> sonny, look, we are kindred spirits. they have all those users but have not been able to make a lot of money off of it and i'm sticking with my belief that look, it's meta. that's the winner. i'm not sure they'll get the top win anymore, but they'll get the win for being efficient. it is, after all, the year of efficiency at meta. look, we have a big week ahead, but meanwhile what a quarter. take that, bears. i'll give you my take with lots of really terrific pictures of all our dogs and cats behind us and we're often playing cramer faves. am i diversified? since we're now plus six, we'll get some stuff we won't like.
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you pull in new stuff on bond tear and in mode. i'm turning in my homework and there's some things about these two stocks i like very much. so stay with cramer. >> don't miss a second of "mad money." follow@jimcramer on twitter. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or call us at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. welcome to ameriprise. i'm sam morrison. my brother max recommended you. so my best friend sophie says you've been a huge help.
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at ameriprise financial, more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you. that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. (vo) this is more than just glass, walls, doors and carpeted floor. it's a place to change the world. loopnet. the most popular place to find a space.
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did during lockdown. some are easy to spot. obviously we aren't taking as many at-home covid tests anymore. sorry, abbott labs. pc sales fell 37% post pandemic. generally stopped spending crazily on our homes and started using our money to go out and enjoy life as best as we know how. that's why i like to say we're in a low on money, short on time mode that encourages travel over video games or computers. even consumers are starting to spend beyond their saves. they still prefer to use that money on travel and leisure, but what about pets? where do pets fit in? specifically, spending on pets, which boomed during the pandemic. before covid the humanization of pets content had become a real bull theme who went from having animals first in the
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basement, then in the bedroom and then only in the bed itself. money seemed no object. virtually everything pet related made fortunes for investors and companies crowded into the category to take advantage of it, but now people are beginning to wonder if gets have become subtle casualties of the long money, short on time story. when you're stuck working from home, you're with your pets all the time. it's easy to spoil them. now with people going out more, i think pets are getting fewer resources. if you're traveling overseas, your pets aren't getting doted on anymore. it's still in play but definitively weaker. how do we balance the cohort of general mills and petco and chewy which are pure plays? i like to keep things simple. you like the pet theme and don't want a lot of risk, you buy general mills. this long time safety stock had been one of the most boring, unaggressive enterprises around
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for years, basically a decent portfolio, generally a ton of cash, good buyback. we used to say with its core cereal business, no one ever went wrong buying a stock in general mills except for we called it generous mills back then. that's seven years ago. mills picked a new ceo, jeff harmony, and he broke form. he sold out $8 billion for blue buffalo, the most natural of the higher end pet food brands. the acquisition shocked wall street and initially was hailed as a colossal overpay. general mills which had been a consistent buyer of its stock suddenly had to issue stock to pay all the way down. mills fell from $60 to $36 and a lot of faith was lost in what was previously known as a widows and orphans story. when we look back now and realize harmony was a downright visionary. he saved general mills from
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packaged goods oblivion with this blue buffalo acquisition. while the pet segment isn't the biggest, it became the growth engine for the stock that's beloved by wall street and is instrumental in mills putting up the best numbers of the square of any consumer packaged goods company aside from hershey. blue buffalo's 14% organic sales growth was accelerating growth from the previous quarter driven by higher prices and higher volume. a 2.5% yield, some classic brands, i think general mills is a good one, especially as the stock's less than three points off its high. great safety name. then smucker, a packaged food company with a pet food ticker, although their pet food business was seen second tier as best, meow mix, not exactly gourmet cat food. this was brilliant. they doubled down not just on pet food, no. they went niche. they went smack pet food, that's right, think milkbone. i think smucker can work its
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way higher, although i wouldn't recommend it if not for the strength of its coffee and peanut butter brands. another good safety play with the pet food kicker, they are into pet snacking. what about petco and chewy? they have become two of the most controversial stocks in the market. petco became public in january 2021 at $18. the stock traded up to 31 bucks but never saw those levels again. it now languishes at nine bucks. what a come down. does the stock at petco deserve this treatment? not if you look at last quarter where same-store sales grew by 5% year over year. gross profit down 1% in the fourth quarter. gross margin down 220 basis points, 39.8 year over year. some of that is mixed shift and
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trending issues. here's the problem. the stock which is affectionately known as its symbol woof was a private equity deal meaning previous owners loaded the company up with debt and foisted the stock on the public with an ipo. this is the third time petco has come public. come on. this has 4.2 billion in total liabilities. in an environment where we're worried about access to credit petco is untouchable. the business is fine, but the ugly balance sheet makes me think the stock will continue to slip away. i say you should stay away from private equity-backed ipos until the companies pay down a decent amount of debt. petco is just not there yet paying it down in dribs and drabs. they never got the chance to offload more stock and buy back debt. the toughest call in the group, the one that has always confounded me because i like
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the company so much personally is chewy. this is a beloved e-commerce play with the best website, really good brands, much great breadth of brands, strongest loyalty program in the industry, but as deutsche bank recently wrote chewy faces and i quote, "capping user growth environment with an investment year on deck," which then he says adds, "too much numbers risk for one of the most expensive names in our coverage." that's all i care about. it sells for 35 times next years ebitda because chewy is barely expected to break even next year if you use the pure earnings per share numbers. two years ago that would have been fine, but now the market only wants profitable growth, not at any cost. chewy, as loved as it is by users, didn't pivot to profitability soon enough, which is why i simply can't
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endorse it here. bottom line, the humanization of pets, it's still a solid thesis but no longer the kind of rising tide that can lift all boats. now you have to be more selective with the pet play, which is why i'm willing to endorse general mills or even smucker, but i can't be bothered with the much higher risk petco or chewy. "mad money." heading for the break. coming up, survive the unknowns, thrive in any market. cramer invites you to the game of games. play am i diversified next.
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it's not an oncoming train. i leave the best time to reassess your holdings when things are going well. that's why we're playing am i diversified? you call me and tell me what your top five are and maybe we'll mix it up. our first question tonight is from jason in a tweet. jason says, "a wisconsin cheesehead booyah, jim, my top five holdings are this. am i diversified? listen to me, cheese held. you are not diversified. why? because proctor happens to trade with bristol meyers. we'll get rid of bristol-myers and add -- let's add humana, down a couple times, verizon, don't really care for it. i would switch to t-mobile, but
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you probably like dividends. apple, no. we want to be in lamb research, better move company. make those moves monday. next from michael in california with a message. michael. >> hello, mr. cramer, from castro valley, california. my top five holdings are cvs, chevron, cisco, lowe's and morgan stanley. am i diversified? >> this is going to prove to be diversified. chevron, the oil giant, that is very easy. lowe's, very good big box retailer. we know that. morgan stanley, excellent financial.
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cisco, trust and cvs, we're going far afield and we'll say that you should own eli lilly because of the new anti-obesity drug. that will make a very good change and give you a little light through this portfolio. let's go to amanda in louisiana. amanda. >> booyah, jim. this is amanda from louisiana. third time caller, been watching you since 2001, calling you from under a magnolia tree. it's uprooted itself since the last hurricane. am i diversified? bristol-myers, halliburton, in nvidia, microsoft, palo alto network securities. thank you. >> so microsoft, i was just talking to my friend buddy pal,
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what a kick butt situation there. that's chatgpt. we're going to let this go. even though they do overlap. why? because i've already committed to nvidia, own don't trade, so i can't go back on it. bristol-myers, yes, the drug company. i want to switch it out and put in eli lilly. palo alto, five years, what has he done other than mint money? fantastic cybersecurity and halliburton, a little down. we own this, too, for travel trust. i think halliburton is a double buy right here. let's take eric in tennessee. eric. >> hi, jim. this is eric from tennessee. my five stocks are dks, hsy, hershey, unh, united healthcare,
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dvn, devon, and waste management. am i diversified? >> wow. i'm in all of this portfolio. this is some really good work here. devon is a little down now, missed the quarter. dick's, talk about a blowout quarter retailers. waste management, i like that action above 160, looks pretty good and then hershey, amazing. hershey and general mills, they are fighting each other for the king of consumer packaged goods. we got industrial waste, a great retailer, an oil company and a superior healthcare insurance company. it's perfect. there's nothing you can do there whatsoever. let's go to steve in wyoming. steve. >> good afternoon, jim. this is steve from wyoming and my five stocks are rpn international, dominion energy,
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kimberly clark, johnson & johnson, and is mondelez. jim, am i diversified? >> we may have some work to do. keep in mind it's consumer packaged goods, rpm reports this week, i expect a good quarter in oil, chemical company. dominion, good utility. johnson & johnson, the talc cases are just weighing on me, but i'm sticking with j&j and the yield's safe and it's only one of two aaa balance sheet companies in the s&p 500. where is my problem here? i've got to tell you believe it or not, all three of these stay together, consumer packaging. we'll keep it. why? kimberly had a good yield. can you feel the dividend income? i can. if you can't, i say wake up and smell the coffee. let's go to lastly, oh, no,
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that's not lastly. it's don. lastly, we have don in illinois. i thought we had don in lastly, illinois. don. >> yeah. this is don from illinois. thanks for taking my call. am i diversified? my five holdings are abby, procter & gamble, microsoft, deer, and triton energy. am i diversified? thank you. >> this is a very controversial story. this is a high spec chemical company. i don't know if it belongs in the portfolio, but i always say you can have one spec. i'll let thatting, but i can't have two and that's triton. so we'll get rid of triton right here right now like
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vanish and put in pioneer. john deere is one i regret so much we don't own for the travel trust. i think it's got 500 written all over it. abbvie good yield. we have tech, drug, industrial, spec and oil. well played to all of our contestants. lastly was my favorite one just so you know and someone said i was going through 2021. i hadn't even been born there. so i'm questioning the veracity of that comment. we'll head to the break. >> coming up, cramer's done his homework to give you a leg up on the stocks you want to know and the assignment is due next. this is ge vernova, helping generate and move the energy that our world needs.
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whenever you ask me about a stock i don't know or haven't been following closely, i do more research and promise to report back with a more informed opinion. the whole point of this show is to help you become the better investor. i can't do that without addressing your questions. a little over a month ago tyler in california asked about chemical bonds here which was a mid cap industrial company i wasn't familiar with. it's a spinoff of a spinoff. ford had had a faster transportation mobility-focused business and decided to split into a separate company. what does vontier do? nearly half of their sales come
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from the environmental fueling solutions division, a lot of gas station exposure. then they've got a mobility technology business where they make a point of sale and payment systems for gas stations and convenience stores as well as fleet and workflow analytic solutions and charging networks, not bad. the rest of vontier's business comes from tools and equipment. i think at investor day they told a good story. in the final months of 2020, management initiated a series of profitable growth strategies. in 2021 and 2022 they cut costs by using the business optimization strategy they heard from danaher. that's a buy. i think it is good as 300. vontier said their mobile technology business can grow at a high single-digit clip while
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the larger environmental and fueling solutions division can grow by low single digits. they expect the repair solutions to split the difference and go to a mid single digit right. vontier is trying to gradually reduce exposure to internal combustion engine vehicles while continuing to increase exposure to electric. smart plan, right? vontier is a good, solid industrial company with decent growth and quality management that plans to keep expanding margins. if they can get their operating margins up another 150 basis points over the next three years, they're talking about double digit earnings growth. doesn't hurt last year our government passed all sorts of new subsidies for connected vehicles. it's going to play into their game plan. the one problem here i think you missed an incredible gain. the stock plunged from 37 at the peak in the fall 2021 to 60 and change this past september
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and recovered since then, but that's intriguing to me. certainly after that invest day last week, i think vontier deserves a higher price series. vontier was bought up by fortive a few years ago. now fortive sells for 20 times earnings while vontier sells for ten times? it is cheap. i like the call and thank ll our viewers for ideas like vontier. betsy in california called me on inmode. inmode uses radiofrequency technology for minimally invasive cosmetic surgery, especially as an alternative to liposuction, although they've got exposure to all sorts of plastic surgery, dermatology and women's health. this kind of growth stock has been killed since the peak to
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late 2021. it's lost two-thirds of its values since then. its growth slowed substantially last week. lately it's become a bit of a battleground. in february it was downgraded as part of a bearish call. they found consumers were reducing spending on these new procedures. however, just two days ago ubs initiated coverage for inmode up nearly eight bucks from here. ubs expects the plastic surgery to continue. i'm more concerned about longer term issues. you never hear about this from management, but remember inmode's main business is an alternative to liposuction. that's minimally invasive weight loss surgery, yet were there ever a business i'd be most worried about, i think it would be this one. why? because of this new class of
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diabetes that can double as weight loss pills like from eli lilly. if people end up losing lots of weight from these drugs, you got to figure less demand for innode's devices. even a minimally invasive surgery seems a lot less appealing than a drug with few side effects. that's it. at these levels inmode sells at 12 times earnings. i know the whole group is going out of style in the wall street fashion show. i'm not sure why inmode is getting much, much lower multiple, but it seem as to cheap to ignore. one last point, inmode's profitable. it's got no debt. the stock can't get any respect going forward. i wouldn't be surprised or shocked if it gets snapped up by a larger medical technology
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firm even if medical aesthetics has hit a speed bump. bottom line, sometimes listening to your calls gives us good idea. tonight we got two of them because i think vontier and inmode are both solid businesses with stocks that are simply too low given the strength of their balance sheet and the fundamentals. "mad money's" back after the break. >> coming up, what's on your mind? give us a call. the lightning round is storming the nyse next. - double check that. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed
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it is time, time for lightning round. then the lightning round is over. are you ready? we start with mike in ohio. mike. >> booyah, jim. thanks for taking my call. >> of course, mike. what's shaking? >> i appreciate your kudlow days. >> wow, man, that's 47 years ago. it freshens the day. >> i have a question about car. most of us would agree travel is going strong. >> yeah. but if we like cr, we love hertz because steve short used to run, goldman sachs cfo, now he's running hertz. i like your thesis because we are long on money and short on time. let's go to frank in massachusetts. frank. >> hey, jim, big booyah, love your show, lots of good advice
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from you. the ceo you have on and shout out to the philly teams and boston teams. my stock is doing a 200 million share buyback over two years. they bought 41 million so far. they're just partnered with google a icloud that i own and the ticker symbol is vrnt. should i hold, sell or add more? >> no. i want you to hold. i can't push anybody here because it's not an inexpensive stock. everything you described is right. it's a good call. let's go to john in florida. john. >> booyah, jim. after the recent silicon valley bank incident on wednesday you made a recommendation to buy technology companies with strong cash reserves and considering the cash rich companies tend to bleed faster in an inflationary environment compared to those that hold hard assets and the motto is be
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your own bank, would you suggest investing in microstrategy and their reserves? >> no. i would prefer you actually invest in bitcoin. i want you to put it in a price where you won't wake up and find out it's not there. that's a little harder to find, but i prefer you to own the actual. let's go to jon in big mo, missouri, jon. >> cramer, hey, i want to ask you about ampenol. >> i happen to like these fiber coaxial cables. i've always had a thing for them. you're absolutely right. let's go to jerry in arkansas. >> what's your take on 3m? >> 3m has too much litigation risk. that is one nasty situation. let's go to matt in minnesota.
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matt. >> booyah, jim. want to know what you think of a stock with a pe of six, a juicy dividend of 12 1/2. what do you think of camping world? >> i don't understand that big of yield without some concern. it does worry me because i do like the stock. i like cabela's, too. the yield that big you have to have a bit of a safe yellow flag, if not a red flag. let's go to lily in texas. lily. >> hi, cramer. thank you for all your help, love your show. >> thank you. >> i have amt revenue. >> another downgrade today, yield 14%. when you're reaching for yield like that, it says to me something could be wrong. that's not a yellow flag. that's an outright red flag. let's go to dave in my homestate pennsylvania. dave. >> hey, jim. big booyah. >> good to see you, dave. what's happening? >> my question is for freighter
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battery symbol frey. >> we don't recommend stocks that are losing money because it's just too dangerous at this very moment. even if you had a very bullish end of the quarter, i don't recommend stocks with the oscillator up six and then have bad balance sheets. let's go to mark in wisconsin. mark. >> dr. cramer, thank you for taking my call. >> you're welcome. >> i'm looking to add more of this stock, roger federer's shoe company ticker symbol onon. >> a 16-year-old kid came, in nice fellow, and i said listen, i know you like nike, but i think you should like on. these teams recognized on is a good name. i'm with him. i was almost thinking about putting that in the bullpen for the travel trust is how much i think that on is a buy. we bought footlocker. people are not giving her the credit that they will when the stocks hit 80. you mark my words.
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let's go to rod in south dakota. rod. >> hey, buddy. thanks for taking my call. i'm more than honored. we watch your show all the time and we invest. he says i should not continue to work in vvba, bank of venezuela. i think it's growth and income, but you tell me. >> i want you to go running to banco because that -- and they just referred their europe. this is the best bank in europe. spain has taken over. it's at $3 and change. i say go all in. that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the longest ever lightning round. >> the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. coming up, party like it's
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1989. cramer shares an old lesson that still holds up today next. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. (vo) businesses nationwide are switching to verizon business internet. td ameritrade. (woman) it's a perfect fit for my small business. (vo) verizon has business internet solutions nationwide. (man) for our not-so-small business too. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from verizon.
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places. the dollar's too strong. earnings are peaking. recession beckons, got to go short, not long and we'll crush it because we've seen this movie before and know how it ends. no, i'm not talking about right now. that's the position i took 34 years ago when i had my own hedge fund. i met the smartest people and done my homework and thought i was the smartest man in the room and like many of the bears you hear about, i couldn't have been more wrong. i was overrun by events and i was kept from spotting some amazing trends that could have made my hedge fund fortunes, like the creation of biotech and the revolution of the care industry. i paid the price by flubbing the quarter, a great quarter that ended up just like this one. i learned a valuable lesson back then. see, there's a craft to this business and it doesn't include sweeping generalizations about what will happen to the entire market by theorists and economists who should really know better. the craft is all about figuring out what will happen with
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individual companies. it must not be so horrible it impacts them directly. i wasn't being lazy back then. i was willing to pull the meetings and read the stories, about the i was arrogant. i believed i could figure out the whole market by examining broad economic data just like how people today say we're doomed to have a recession because of the inverting yield curve, real bad bet this quarter, wasn't it? the big difference between me and them, when i realized i was wrong 34 years ago, i changed course. right now most of the people who hate this market because of the mini bank crisis and aggressive rate hikes still hate it and don't think it even matters they've been wrong. they're almost proud of their ineptitude. you should always be willing to change your mind and never take pride in being wrong. if you didn't like meta or apple or nvidia lately, you don't have to say their gains don't matter. what matters is the coming
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recession. you've lost those bragging rights. it matters and as i explained last night in my nestle's credit crunch search, i can't see the recession yet. what the heck happened we now live in a world where so many strategists and money managers don't seem to care about the hunt for winning stocks to try to help you make money? first, most portfolio managers don't want to stay too far from the major averages. that's what gets you fired. these guys try to underweight or overweight select sectors managing their jobs. second, these days they get more credit for having a particular world view than making money. they don't have the luxury of missing one of the best quarters in ages because for the most part, they're already very rich. this is the real secret. i bridle over this because i am forever back in 1989 or '79 when i was living in my car. i choosed to miss an amazing run because i didn't want to get my hands dirty. i stayed above the microfray. what a fool i was.
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i make my mistakes, but i try. that means doing the homework, practicing the craft. it's my job and the job of all the people who rail against the market. the difference? i choose to accept the job. they pretend not to have it. it's too risky for their reputations to admit they got it wrong. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i the trucking industry smoking matt about victory for california green agenda. is russia economy coming undone? for the rest of a journal by putin's regime could be a big warning sign president biden dishing out a little fuzzy math on inflation. fox news covers a major blow it is $1.6 billion legal battle in the election did the bargain basement prices to hit
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