welcome to "power lunch" everybody. along side contessa brewer i'm tyler matheson opec surprises the market with a cut sending oil prices higher and energy stocks with it. nasdaq pulling today after a

strong recent rally in tech. we'll break down what it all means for the markets. >> plus the u.s. accused china's spy balloon of collecting intelligence from sensitive military sites now taiwan's president will visit with american politicians on u.s. soil where do relations with china go from here? we'll get to that and much more. first a check on the markets the dow jones industrial average is up nearly 0.75% but the s&p 500 is in the red, flattish. nasdaq down a percent. the russell 2000 off by half a percent. >> the nasdaq turning 1% lower after a very strong rally last week it is the worst compared to the dow. the fed narrative still strong the sectors trending lower, auto the biggest laggard. driven by tesla about 7% lower now, concerns about sales growth still remain you have ev rival lucid down 3%

as well. shares of software hr, paychex an underweight rating with 109 and shares are 111 right now bank of america down graded the stock on worries of an economic slowdown the stock tends to lag they say as unemployment starts to rise lastly you have retail names leading the nasdaq higher. dollar tree up 3%. walgreens, ross stores, all in the top five rankings today. it could be due to new filings we got that show hedge funds took bigger positions or also a sympathy move after macy's got an upgrade from jpmorgan macy's shares 6% higher. >> thank you very much now to the big surprise this morning in the markets a production cut from opec plus.

oil soaring, energy stocks going with it. why did they do it >> well, starting with just this move which took the market completely by surprise, no one thought this was going to happen given that the group had previously indicated it would hold production steady despite the recent weakness in prices. not to mention the meeting was actually slated for today. so yesterday the group announced a voluntary cut of more than 1 million barrels per day beginning in may saudi arabia will cut output by 500,000 barrels per day with other nations also curbing production additionally russia will extend the 500,000 barrel per day cut it announced back in march this latest move is on top of the 2 million barrel per day cut announced last october saudi arabia called it a precautionary measure aimed at supporting stability in the market firms including eurasia group said it signals opec plus will defend higher prices and support moscow the announcement leading to big gains for crude, retaking

the #$80 level energy stocks are the best today with producers leading the gains. nat gas is going in the other direction, down another 5% today after posting its worst quarter on record down more than 50% for the year >> put this in context for me. how big a deal is this in the broader global picture of what we need for oil and where demand is going >> i think it speaks to the growing importance of opec and its allies and how they have spare capacity so can be in charge of this market particularly since china is such a big, and growing part of that. they are closer, more proximity, increasing relations saudi arabia and china are building refineries now in china with both co-investing and so they are using their power now in terms of what it actually means for barrels, they have been under producing for their quotas so we might not actually have all the barrels coming off the market but it is still significant and also means that maybe they see some demand

weakness looking forward and the market they see is actually not as strong as some people say which is why they preemptively took this cut. >> got it. thank you very much. appreciate that. let's turn to china. the infamous chinese spy balloon that floated across the u.s. in early february was able to gather intelligence from several american military sites despite president biden's efforts to block it from doing so how will this impact the u.s.'s already strained relationship with china and a couple more developments coming this week on that front let's talk to a partner and the director of foreign policy research at the brookings institution. welcome to you both. let me begin with you. let's talk quickly about the chinese spy satellite. was it really in and over usair space or in space? and don't we do fundamentally the same kind of things and gather the same kind of intelligence that the chinese were gathering over on our

military installations >> yeah. those are good questions there is some ambiguity about who owns the air when you get up above 50,000, 60,000 feet. now, i think the united states is perfectly within its rights to assert it is our sovereign territory, but we don't have completely rock solid international legal foundation for doing that in any event we have to therefore modulate the criticism of china i have no problems with president biden having the balloon shot down. i think that was understandable. but i also don't find it completely surprising or indicative of aggressive intent that china would try to get away with this exploitation of a gray area more generally i think we have to learn in the united states' strategic debate how to push back against chinese actions we don't like without demonizing them or calling them a new axis of evil as senator lieberman recently did in an op-ed the rhetoric is getting a bit

overheated this particular action and incident required i think a firm american response but also understanding both sides are constantly trying to exploit ambiguities in the law or opportunities for intelligence it is just a little bit the nature of the business >> you know, dennis, the idea of axis of evil, a phrase that goes back to the bush administration. you do certainly have now three countries it would seem -- russia, iran, and china -- that are acting in concert against the interests of the west and the united states. true false? what >> i think the west has to accept the fact that china and russia and iran to a lesser extent are now bound together very closely so as a result i am not going to use that phrase which i think is a little bit over blown, but the fact that they are no longer close to us other than

economically is a fact of life >> so you had xi jinping going to russia to meet with putin now you have the taiwanese president coming to the united states to meet with kevin mccarthy i'm just curious, what do you think, michael is this a situation where we're going to continue to see tensions ratchet up? explain if you will why taiwan could be the linchpin in this. >> thank you first of all i think dennis makes a very good point. if we think back eight, ten years russia and china were working with us to apply sanctions against iran in a way that then made possible the iran nuclear deal whether you like that deal or not the dynamic was that russia and china worked with us at the u.n. security council to apply sanctions in a way that would be unthinkable today given the nature of relations. that is an important point on taiwan the fascinating question for me given that china made such a strong reaction already last summer and that

taiwan has presidential elections coming up in january and china doesn't really want to help the more nationalistic party, the dpp, typically the dpp benefits when china is seen as over punishing, taiwan as overly threatening, so i'm going to be fascinated i won't make a prediction. sorry, i don't feel smart enough but i do suggest that we all watch very astutely the chinese reaction my guess is that they will be upset but they will ratchet it down a half notch from what they did after the pelosi visit >> i guess the real question for our cnbc viewers is that taiwan is pivotal to chips and circuit boards here in the united states you saw last week president biden using the defense act to try and lower some of these obstacles to chip production and try to make sure that no matter what happens with china that the u.s. military has what it needs. within that context what do you

think? are we looking at a situation here where we have to throw all of the eggs into the taiwan basket because how important they are to our own national defense? >> i think it is going to be at least four years before the united states can regain as much of the chip production particularly the five nanochip ones in the near future. my concern is that if china is really going to put pressure on taiwan they'll want to do it over the next two to three to four years but as you know, there are chip plants being built now in the united staltstes and maybe more the horizon but they are multi billion things that take a long time to put together xi jinping has his third leg on the stool now that he is controlling china in my opinion moorn mao, what is happening is

he knows he is on a short string in which taiwan can still put economic pressure on the united states. >> a former president of taiwan is now on the mainland of china on what is being described as a nonofficial visit. what the hell is he doing there? >> well, he is from the kmt party which used to fight the communists it is now seen as the more pro china, pro do business, get along, avoid confrontation party in contrast to the dpt president tsai is from the dpt she is a calm person, assertive at one level but unlikely to make a reckless decision she leaves office next year as i mentioned after the january elections. the front-runner to replace her is seen as much more assertive and willing to perhaps push maybe not the independence agenda per se but moving in that direction. china doesn't want him to win. so china is going to try to

remind voters in taiwan of the benefits of voting for the kmt and obviously the president feels differently. january is only nine months away. >> thank you for being here >> i might add one other quick thing. president ma was the first present, present or past i think to visit mainland china since 1949 he was there last week and talking about a peace initiative clearly as you just heard from michael we have a strong competition between the two and it will be interesting to see where it goes. >> thank you very much >> i heard you in a brilliant interview about ukraine among other things and maybe next time we can get to that. >> thank you shares of tesla falling today though the company reported record deliveries phil lebeau joins us now

why is that, phil? >> you're looking at a stock that has run up what, 80, 85% over the last three to four months it is under some pressure here i think largely because people are waiting for the q1 results we'll talk about that in a bit today is also when we got q1 results for really almost all of the major auto makers. when you look at it most of the deals, the numbers are pretty impressive gm, hyundai, honda all reporting stronger sales first quarter toyota down 8.8%, the outlier. not a lot of impact on the stocks today we knew for the most part what the numbers would be coming into today. now let's talk about tesla as you mentioned, record deliveries for the first quarter. there you go with the auto stocks tesla record deliveries for the first quarter, just over 422,000 vehicles the consensus range between 421 and 432. roughly speaking in line up 4% compared to the fourth

quarter of last year the big question now for tesla, what happens with margins when they report the results on april 19th after the bell on the 19th? the number people are looking at, guys, about 20.5%. anything above that is going to be viewed as good news anything below that is a different story. finally, take a look at shares, reporting production numbers today, the deliveries just under 8,000 vehicles a decline compared to the fourth quarter that decline is one reason why cfra put a rare strong sell on the stock. they're moving that rating down to strong sell on rivn there you see shares trading just over $15. >> what is tesla doing on pricing these days they've been cutting prices and putting prices back on what >> yep well, as of right now we haven't seen a price action in a while there's two markets to look at, tyler, not only here which we're focused on because we're here

but china. brutally competitive in china in terms of the ev market that is what people are probably more focused on because that is where you'll see the price cuts kick in. we'll also see some of that here i think we're waiting for tesla to say okay. what can we offer from the ev tax credits when announced on april 18th then you might see them decide do we have to raise prices, cut prices, etcetera >> thanks very much. phil lebeau reporting on the autos. coming up in the high risk high rewards start up world, 5% returns wouldn't usually get people excited but in 2023 one company is helping business invest their excess cash in treasury notes with 5% on the six month who can blame them that story is next plus mcdonald's stock an all time high as the company's corporate employees sit on pins and needles awaiting -- haven't heard that phrase in a long time -- awaiting potential job cuts weathering a storm?

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let's get a tech check it is 18 minutes past the hour. >> you teed it up perfectly before the break supposed to be high risk, high reward but certainly changed amid rising interest rates the kinds of deals getting done changed too. today maybe in a sign of the times a start of getting funded -- start up getting

funded is not promising to change the world but just helping tech companies invest in relatively boring treasuries a treasury management platform that partners with bny mellon to allow companies to invest surplus cash in u.s. treasury bills and notes essentially acting as a corporate treasurer letting the start up focus on what it does best, core operations here is why it is interesting. the implosion of the bank was a wake up call it is also now clear they need to think about protecting cash against bank failures and other uncertainties. who is backing this start up maybe even more interesting, the latest $20 million round had participation from ceos of uber and door dash as well as the key architect of softbank vision fund and former chairman of we work, the people who have run some of the most unprofitable tech companies or funds in recent years kind of the poster children of high risk high reward the idea the executives that ran these companies and funds during that low interest rate boom time

but are now bullish on treasury management underlines 2023 as the era of conservative spending and cost cutting meanwhile, guys, another indication of the age of us an tert for even the profitable megacap tech companies google also still cutting but just around the edges snack bars and staplers are the latest under pressure. even staplers, guys, cutting out. >> take away my coffee take away my desk lamp but leave my stapler you will pry it from my cold, dead hand as charlton heston once said. >> remember the movie office space where the guy is going around who has my stapler? >> that's it at google right if you are cutting down on staplers everybody is going to be searching i wonder if that is a problem for team morale. >> well, you could argue that

maybe the cuts in the last round were worse for team morale yes, in all seriousness, team morale on the other hand google has done less cuts that some of the other big tech companies so while you may lose your lunch time masseuse you might still have a job analysts on wall street often say they should be cutting more. >> back to the use of t bills as a place for cash for corporate treasuries i understand the idea that these companies are afraid that they may fall victim to a bank issue like silicon valley bank at the same time, they most certainly have fallen victim to the idea that bankers don't want to pay much on deposit at all. so they're going out into the treasury market where they can get 4% or more on their idle

cash >> that as great point even if you're not worried about a bank run or failure this whole episode has taught these start ups, they're parking millions of dollars in most cases in the bank if you are not earning anything on that why not put it in a short-term t bill? so there was sort of the financial literacy here in the valley that proper cash management, that is what this company does you as a founder don't have to worry about it just worry about the disruption or whatever you are trying to create and let us handle the short-term investments so at least you own something. >> how is your stapler thank you. still to come tech not the only sector forced to cut costs and take staplers. reports that mcdonald's is temporarily shutting its u.s. offices as it prepares for lay-offs that is not just a statement you can't go to the office what we know is next plus caffeine free and waste

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>> bonds, a long career, i haven't been tracking as long as you have how does this factor in your long career? >> i've been watching bonds when jimmy carter was president i remember the hand-off with hostages when ronald reagan was elected. i go back a bit. when you look at it at 10:00 eastern and see the way rates dropped, 46.3. weakest since may of 2020. here is the point. open the chart up. go back to the end of february

what is fascinating is you can see the high and low for the month. the difference in the close is 130 basis points i have never seen a month i can remember that had a closing rate of 130 basis points. you can't be on the phone. we need to talk. >> thank you for joining me today. this is a simple question. i look at what is going on and outside the s&ps and nasdaq today blur your eyes today is the dow for the most part the three have been doing rather well would you agree? >> seems like we shook off the regional bank scares from a few weeks ago. >> we've shaken so much off elvis presley would be pleased with the markets my point is, most people i talked to say a recession is coming but you don't seem to agree. many people here don't seem to agree. >> the markets have definitely rallied but i still think we're very data driven right now the fed still keeps talking about the data and down here we're seeing a ton of interest

in the april 10th -- because of the holidays, the first expiration that captures the nonfarms report on friday. >> reporter: i'm sure you saw today prices paid under 50 you know, if you blur your eyes and take out covid these are some of the lowest ism headline numbers since 2009 i guess in the final analysis, can traders dance between the rain drops if we're going to have a recession but they're long what is the trigger for them? >> we had the rally today with the treasuries ticked up with ism. stocks ticked up we are still back off the highs from today i think they'll wait and see what happens the momentum is higher but we have a jobs number that throws people for a loop. >> reporter: one number. one number can make so much difference since it is really quite unbelievable everybody better tune in friday morning. i'll be here for that jobs report tyler, contessa, back to you.

>> i'm just setting the alarm. i want to see the traders dancing in between the rain drops. that is going to be great television rick santelli, thank you so much let's get a cnbc news update >> this is your cnbc news update at this hour russian authorities have accused ukrainian intelligence agencies for a st. petersburg bombing that killed russian military blogger vlad len tartarsky investigators say the bomb was hidden in a statue given him shortly before the explosion: there could be a reprieve to many of the 1300 prisoners on death row. under the new law, now prison sentences of 30 to 40 years can be given for crimes that didn't result in fatality and parisians have voted to ban for hire electric scooters from

their streets. an overwhelming 89% of voters supported the measure. many cited frequent accidents and dangerous clutter for their resentment toward the scooters the devices will disappear once current contracts expire at the end of august. back over to you >> i concur >> i was reading about this over the weekend. they've had hundreds of deaths on these things over the past couple years 21 million rides last year on those scooters they just dumped them apparently they dump them when they're done. >> not good. >> well the clock is ticking now. apparently they're going to be leaving those beautiful city streets of paris in the next couple months. >> no more le scoot. morgan, we'll see you at 4:00. >> okay. sounds good. ahead on "power lunch" we'll be eating right up until 4:00. markets higher the dow more than 200 points meg' cap tech the ggbiest contributors to the s&p's recent climb. are the bulls right? should you bet on growth again

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welcome back to "power

lunch. a split decision on the market today the dow gaining thanks to energy but the nasdaq which had been the leader is down nearly 1% let's get to bob pisani at the new york stock exchange. >> we're starting the second quarter and people who were anticipating some kind of modest sell-off given the huge move in tech stocks are a little disappointed if you're bullish you'll be very happy. nvidia after a 90% move up you would think you'd see profit taking in the second quarter not happening. micron is down a fraction. apple has been flat lining all day. that is remarkable given the moods. microsoft also only down 1%. instead, what is under a little pressure is some of the discretionary stuff. tesla is in the discretionary group, a stock specific story but travel stocks have been weak through the day because of the move up in energy we saw thanks to opec. carnival, royal caribbean, expedia, airlines like united and american also to the down side we have seen some very nice moves up in some of the lick lickal names last week -- some

of the cyclical names. caterpillar had a nice run g.m. is down today some of the consumer names have done well. last week was good for coca-cola and proctor & gamble down otherwise prior to that home depot had a good week that trend is continuing and giving the bulls some hopes of broadening out big movers today energy stocks exxon mobile is only about 3% from a new high so keep an eye on that. not a lot of big breakouts marathon petroleum one stock at a 52-week high >> our next guest recommends staying fully invested saying now is actually a good time, might be a good time to buy growth let's bring in our guest good to see you today. what strategy are you applying to your market investments at this stage >> so you are absolutely right we want to be fully invested that is point one. a lot of investors get scared or panic when you see the big

swings and want to consider market timing. that is not us i think you want to be consistently invested. that is where we are i think maybe a deeper question is okay. you're fully invested, in markets. how are you going to play that are you going to keep writing, do you want to diversify in case that starts to slow down a couple different angles. generally we are splitting things and going right down the middle you want to own some growth and some tech. what if there is a recession and things slow down you want to be sure you have defenses to offset that. >> you have j.j.ohnson & johnsoa your pick -- you have pnc financial in the bank sector i don't know if you'd get pushback considering the bank situation. and infineon sort of cyclical semis. tell me what kind of overall strategy fits all three of those. >> the question is what is going on here? what ties all of these three together really it would be sort of durable growth we like to see a reasonable

valuation. johnson & johnson is a good business, almost the opposite of the buy tech trade techs going up boring defensive companies like j.j. taking a hit. nothing is going on with the company really so valuation looks attractive that is something you can own in defensive but continue to diversify. you probably want to own some cyclicals. regional bank getting beat up. a super regional is pretty compelling like pnc. it is pushing a 5% dividend yield. that pays for you to wait a bit for some of the problems to roll off. last piece again the diversified idea, you want to own some tech. seeing on, a little bit off sort of the burner for investors, foreign company. so it is cyclical. semiconductors are selling however, there is a long-term growth theme, think ev, electrification, renewables. there is a slow burn that is going to help companies like that so those are companies we like at this point >> elaborate if you wouldn't

mind about johnson & johnson which for many years was the bluest of blue chips they have the talc litigation ongoing. they have other litigation that is not insignificant talk me through that and whether this company still retains the blue chip status it has always had or whether it is in some sense a highly tarnished blue chip >> absolutely. it is certainly a challenge for the company. when you get into litigation for some of the big caps can go in a lot of different directions. as we look at the company, i followed it for a long time, used to be a healthcare investor they've gone through ups and downs with litigation. the area we'd focus on is frankly cash flow. if there is some worse than expected litigation j.&j has to pay for unfortunately may not be doing as many buy backs or dividends but can point it toward funding some type of settlement i think it is unlikely you'd see

litigation so massive it would throw off capital allocation but it is a risk i think a lot of the litigation is linked to the consumer business j&j -- certainly there could be ongoing litigation there but at a minimum some of the management distraction moves away in the core business and it continues to grow. >> thank you up next, coffee cleanup. nearly 25 billion coffee pods used annually may wind up in landfills. we'll look at one company working to create a biodegradeable solution. "clean start" is next. - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones

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if you love coffee you probably like at least coffee pods because they are easier, faster, less messy they are not cleaner when it comes to the planet. diana olick has more in her continuing series on climate start ups. hi, di >> hi. americans alone use roughly 20 billion coffee pods per year and the single serve market continues to grow. some companies do offer recycling programs like i send my pods back every month but not everyone does that and not everything gets recycled one start up is saying don't

recycle. just trash the pods. the serve coffee market has grown by 40% in the last five years and keeps going. curing leads and nespresso but a start up has a pod the company claims degrades in landfills far faster than plastic because it is infused with an enzyme. >> it enables the pods to simply be thrown in the trash they start to degrade and they degrade in a handful of years instead of the usual 500 or a thousand years >> reporter: he says they leave no micro plastic behind while nspresso and keurig offer recycling programs and others use compostable pods, elias argues his technology saves time and effort. >> this is the most energy

efficient way without having to migrate human behavior and without having to build new infrastructure for composting or doing anything else. >> reporter: plastic pod waste the primary reason some people don't like the single serve system so investors see a huge opportunity in this. >> this market is really big it is $8 billion in size growing at 10% per year which was primarily driven by the pandemic, which caused a lot of people to start working from home and drinking coffee at home >> reporter: the company is backed by platinum mile ventures, cambridge spg, the merchant club, 9 yards capital and total funding so far $10.8 million. >> make no mistake this special plastic costs more to make and that higher cost is of course passed on to the consumer. bruyi pods cost about 15% more than the competition but the company founder claims people

are willing to pay more for a greener cup. i don't know tyler, are you >> so they are still going into landfills where he said they will degrade in a matter of a few years as opposed to 500 years. so it is not going to help solve the landfill problem >> right his argument is all u.s. municipal landfills have a gas capture program and can bring in these gases and some of those landfills actually turn them, the methane into clean energy. his argument is that he is contributing to clean energy at least in some of the landfills that are turning it into clean energy they all have carbon capture programs >> i see diana, thank you appreciate it. well, big tech is cutting costs and mcdonald's has announced it is planning lay-offs the stock is hitting an all time high ahead of that announcement. kate rogers is covering the story for us

>> hey, mcdonald's set to inform corporate workers of lay-offs coming early this week according to an internal memo to u.s. employees viewed by cnbc the memo says it is temporarily closing its offices through april 5th so that it can deliver the decisions virtually to workers. a person familiar with the situation said the number would be in the hundreds in terms of workers impacted by the lay-offs the news was first reported by "the wall street journal." the e-mail we viewed states, quote, we want to ensure the comfort and confidentiality of our people during the notification period. the company declined to comment on this to cnbc. in january, we reported job cuts were coming at the golden arches as the company sought to refocus and accelerate restaurant expansion. the ceo told employees at the time this was designed to innovate more quickly and efficiently. he added that certain initiatives would be halted and deprioritized but it was not clear what those would be. at the time he noted the

organization was silo ed and called that outdated he also wanted to help catch some of the uptick in demand mcdonald's saw during the past few years particularly in the pendleton. this is echoed from this reents e-mail from hr executives from mcdonald's noting the need to shift from legacy mindsets to new behaviors. investors seemed to like the news and the stock is trading at all time highs today >> when we were talking about keeping workers at home ahead of lay-offs we were talking here at cnbc about the fact that they want their people to come in and deliver the bad news so there is a kid glove approach saying we know this is rough and here are the resources available to you are you getting the sense mcdonald's is intentionally choosing a different strategy? >> reporter: certainly it seems different. part of the reason this is remote is due to a busy week for travel was one of the things in that memo but also to respect

the privacy of workers and not have it done in person here. i think it is important to note here, too, this seems to be somewhat different than what we've seen in terms of correcting some over hiring that's been done during the pandemic at some of the big tech companies, the u.s. business for mcdonald's run by mostly franchisees has been very strong analysts kind of like this name. this is going to impact hundreds of workers as they kind of refocus and remove some of the silos to expand in a more thoughtful way it seems. >> all right nganks for the reporti energy stocks leading the s&p after the surprise production cut we'll hit one of the movers.

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let's get to the three stock lunch already. take a look at some of the movers energy stocks in flux after opec plus announce add surprise production cut chevron up 4%, general electric surging to a new five-year high today, and macy's popping after jpmorgan upgraded the company to buy from hold for the first time since 2015 here to help us trade them all is ava, chief operations officer at e. r. shares. great to see you, ava. spill the details on chevron

>> chevron is a buy, especially since opec cut production. this is helping oil stocks, and i like chevron because they're well positioned with a european oil crisis in fact, with their unique pipeline in europe, i like their margins. they're at 15% compared to 10% for their peers. they've one-third of the debt of their peers, so they're not overlevered, and i also like their revenue growth which is up 52%. they've made progress in the revenue growth margins and ebitda, so i think it's a good stock to own in this market. >> but underperforming its peers recently >> it is, and i think that's also a good point here because they have been underperforming for a long time. i think it's a good time for reversal here, and we might see this coming. >> let's move on to general electric, which has had, ava, quite a nice run lately. is it time to take profits >> i think so, yes it's a sell. we need to recognize that this was the most valuable company back in 2000, and when jack

waw welch was running it, there was no better example of innovation and growth when he left, the company became bureaucratic their revenues are at the same level they were 26 years ago i think the trend is clear i don't see things changing. this stock appreciated by 50% since october. i think it's not a bad time to consider taking profits off the table. >> all right, our final name here is macy's what do you think about the big retailer >> that's also a sell. both of these companies were much better picks years ago. so, i'm concerned with this category in general, because more -- for more than a decade, we have seen these big-box retailers struggle since we have e-commerce now, and i don't see the trend changing in fact, when it comes to macy's, the stock price is at the same level it was back in '97, so you have to go back,

again, 26 years to get the same stock level, and the revenues are at the same level they were in 2007. i don't think things will change here so that's not a good buy for me either, although i do recognize that the stock we also late, so it could be a shorter buy and provide some shorter return i don't like it for the long-term, though. >> got it. coming up on "closing bell," you won't want to miss it. ava ados, thank you so much. micong up, will u.s. energy production levels ever hit pre-pandemic levels again? we will take a look under the microscope next. 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. our neighbors, the garcias, love working with you. because the advice we give is personalized, hey, john reese, jr. how's your father doing? to help reach your goals with confidence. my sister has told me so much about you.

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we're going to stop talking among ourselves and invite you in come on in oil's a big jump it is the story of the day, apart from the staplers being taken away from people at google up 6% on opec's surprise production cuts. dominic chu is putting it under the miesh scope. >> is it a boston or a swingline? so, with the oil price story being very much in focus today, what we wanted to show you was u.s. production. now, we can measure it in millions of barrels over the course of a year, and that sort of thing but one of the other ways that we used to do it back in the day

was through the weekly rig counts remember when we used to track those things baker hughes, a big oil services company -- >> solven used to do it. >> 1:00 on fridays, right? that was when it got released. it was a big deal, and we've let it go a little by the wayside, but given the fact that production is going to be in focus with oil prices right now, we wanted to show you and viewers the context of where we currently stand with active u.s. rigs that's a proxy for how much activity is going on for drilling and whatnot, exploration of production in america. you can kind of see where we are right now. it's tailed off a little bit, and we are certainly not back to where we were pre-pandemic in 2019 and 2020, and what's a concern right now is, are we going to keep on that kind of rollover trajectory lower if oil prices were to go lower? this is obviously also a proxy for not just the shale drillers out there but everybody in general. what i want to tell you is if you take a look at a ten-year chart, take a look going back to

2013, 2014 a lot of viewers might remember that back then oil was already in those dollars over $100 per barrel, as you can kind of see there back in 2010 you see the sharp dropoff between 2014 going down towards 2015, right? >> that's where the rig count fell off >> it was significant because in the fall of 2014, we had, at one point, over 1,600 active u.s. oil rigs, not even counting nat gas, just oil rigs in this country, and when oil prices kind of bottomed out in the early part of 2016 and around 25 to $28 a barrel for u.s. benchmark wti crude, you saw those rig counts fall precipitously. >> you've just answered the question i had looking at that prior graph. if you took that back another five years, what would you see in the rig counts? they would be way up >> they would still be ramping up we hit a peak for oil around north of 1,600 it was something helena croft brought up

oil companies and producers want to avoid what they saw back in 2014 to '16 when we saw oil drop by 75% of its value and then, what do you do with production there? there's a little bit of caution right now in the oil business with regard to drilling. >> i think, you know, every time you go under the microscope, i learn something. thank you, dom >> thank you thank you for watching "power lunch." >> and the "closing bell" starts right now. over to scott. ♪ tyler, thank you very much welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner live from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with major questions about the market as the new quarter begins can technology continue its amazing run? is energy about to re-emerge as the place to be in this market after months of missing the mark here is your scorecard with 60 minutes to go now in regulation. dow up for most of the day, and led mostly by united health and chevron as oil surges. s&p hanging on to positive territory, too, by about 0.2%. pu