2014 to '16 when we saw oil drop by 75% of its value and then, what do you do with production there? there's a little bit of caution right now in the oil business with regard to drilling. >> i think, you know, every time you go under the microscope, i learn something. thank you, dom >> thank you thank you for watching "power lunch." >> and the "closing bell" starts right now. over to scott. ♪ tyler, thank you very much welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner live from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with major questions about the market as the new quarter begins can technology continue its amazing run? is energy about to re-emerge as the place to be in this market after months of missing the mark here is your scorecard with 60 minutes to go now in regulation. dow up for most of the day, and led mostly by united health and chevron as oil surges. s&p hanging on to positive territory, too, by about 0.2%. a pullback for tech.

the nasdaq sliding the most of the three major averages today interest rates are lower too as a read on manufacturing disappoints. it brings us to our talk of the tape the road ahead given all that lies ahead jobs report this friday, earnings in a couple weeks and more reads on inflation. to help us navigate all of that, let's welcome in cameron dawson, the chief investment officer from new edge wealth right here as you can see, onset. welcome. >> thank you >> new quarter >> yep >> same story for the market >> well, last quarter was certainly led by tech, and it was massive outperformance, and if we look at the spread of performance between tech and energy, it was nearly 40%, and so what we see now is tech is extremely expensive and energy prior to today is extremely cheap. >> why do you say, extremely expensive? >> well, it was trading at a 40% premium to the market, which is even higher than it reached back in 2021 at the peak of the pandemic bubble. so, that premium is huge, and

it's already pricing in, we think, a lot of potential easing in the fed or by the fed >> is that what you think has led to the run in tech >> i think it's twofold. i think there is a factor of pricing in easier fed policy reflected by lower interest rates. we did see real interest rates fall through the beginning of the year, and then of course, there is that flight to safety, which tech has had good performance during past recessions from an earnings standpoint, so when you put the two of those things together, you get this big huge surge in tech >> like the cash flow, right i mean, if you're looking -- if you're going to be, you know, scrutinizing balance sheets more, why wouldn't you go there? if you need growth in a low-growth environment, why wouldn't you go there? >> the only reason why you would be cautious today is because of valuation. valuation can be a risk in and of itself. now, there has to be a catalyst. in 2022, valuation was a big risk for tech. tech earnings weren't bad last year, but the valuation started the year so high, so that's

where you have to be very cautious that quality at any price doesn't work >> so, would you be a fader -- there's the xlk, right we can show it again we're looking on the screen. that's the tech sector etf it's up better than 20%. there it is. 21% year-to-date, reflecting the move we've seen, which, by the way, you can really boil down to essentially five stocks, give or take a couple. >> exactly i mean, the market's been extremely top heavy, and so if you do remove those stocks, you do see a market that's trading at less of the multiple. even the equal weight s&p 500 is trading at about 16.5 times. that's near the prior high in the pre-pandemic ranges, so it's not as stretched as tech is, but it certainly speaks to this big rally we have had-yea year to d has all been multiple expansion. >> people are wanting to know if the rally can continue or not, whether seasonality is enough of our friend, so to speak, to

carry us through some of the rough patches that, you know, may be lurking out there stratega, into early summer, he says, but note all three major indexes, the s&p, the qs, russell 2000, all have fewer stocks above the 200-day moving average than early february along with a more restrained new high list. you look at this kind of stuff too. does it stick out like a sore thumb? >> it does, and the other point that chris made today is that you're seeing less strength out of the cyclical parts of the market, so one of the things that was bullish to begin the year is we saw things like discretionary outperform staples. that showed there was optimism about the growth picture but ever since we've seen the yield curve starting to reinvert and some of the wobbles going on with banks, what we've seen is cyclicals have rolled over, and so if they start to roll over, things like small caps also rolling over, that would suggest that there could be more earnings risk on the horizon >> maybe discretionary was outperforming because there

were, you know, hopes that the consumer was going to remain strong, and certainly around certain areas of staples and defense, for example, got expensive. >> they did. and they got really extended going into all of 2022, and that's what you saw with the health care sector health care has really underperformed to begin the year, and part of that is just because it did so well in 2022, and so maybe we're starting to give a little bit of that giveback, but the reality is that you've seen such a huge move in growth over value, it's not surprising that you see some kind of snapback, mean reversion, and a cut from opec could be just the spark. >> is that, in fact, going to be the spark that helps this trade re-emerge, restart from what has been a surprise? you said, you know, the way you characterized it was, technology is incredibly expensive. energy is incredibly cheap well, i mean, energy has surprised a lot of people in the way it hasn't worked as much as technology has objn the other

side >> i think that the challenge that we have with energy or had at the beginning of the year, everybody was long it, it was everybody's favorite sector. >> and rightly so. i mean, it did incredibly well last year. >> it did, and at the same time, you have this impact that energy is unlikely to have the same kind of earnings growth that it had last year, and so you have that positioning, and you have a little bit slower earnings, and then you get to this un underperformance, so what we want to watch very closely, though, is if we can see higher oil prices supporting kind of a re-acceleration in that earnings growth for energy names, which would be very bullish for those shares >> let's bring in emily roland of john hancock investment management as we extend the conversation welcome. new quarter. you heard what conameron has to say. energy's getting a nice bid today, and technology is selling off. is this the way it's going to be, the start of something new as the land turns to a new month? >> nope, not so fast we still prefer the technology

sector over energy, and i'll tell you, you've got to be careful when talking about valuation, because one of the reasons that tech looks very expensive is because the earnings estimates have come down, and in fact, we think that they're quite reasonable s&p 500 tech sector earnings right now are pencilled in for just under 1% for 2023 i think that makes sense i think that that's something that's achievable, given the challenging macroenvironment you look at sectors like consumer discretionary, analysts are pencilling in 26% earnings growth for this year com services is seeing about 15% earnings growth. we just think that's going to be really tough, especially given the fact that these are very cyclical sectors they're very sensitive to the economy. tech, we think, can do well. it features a lot of quality these are companies with great balance sheets, tons of cash, a limited need to have to go to the capital markets in order to grow, so we continue to, like, pack over cyclicals in this environment. >> cameron, i'd like you to

respond. >> i think there are parts of tech that are cyclical, so we have to be aware of the potential for earnings cyclicality. not all tech has these stable balance sheets, cash flow like software does. i think when we look at the valuations, how much of that earnings stability is already being priced in? and so, that's where we want to be cautious to say, look, if stuff is overextended and overouo overbought, we own a lot of tech, it's such a dominant part of the quality index but when we're looking at the new buys at the margin, we'll look more towards value because of that valuation premium that tech already has >> in other words, emily, you're right, earnings are going to hang in there, but why do you think the stocks have already done what they've done that's already being reflected is cameron wrong >> well, i think some of it's just a reversal from last year's performance, and i completely agree with cameron that you've got to be really picky when it comes to the tech sector we're staying away from those

unprofitable growth-at-any-price-type tech names and we're really gravitating towards your sort of classic s&p 500 tech sector, those companies with lots of cash being picky, i think, here is really important, but again, if you like quality, which i know cameron does as well, tech is just going to be your poster child there. so, i think in an environment where earnings are going to be significantly challenged, we think there's going to be a big rerating in earnings this year as margins come under pressure, as we see this cycle play out, unemployment go up, we want to gravitate towards those areas and just have better balance sheets, more cash, good free cash flow, and that's going to be found in tech >> but do you, in part, like tech because you also think that rates are done going up? and do you think the fed is done raising? >> i think that that's certainly part of the story, but i don't think tech needs lower rates in order to outperform here that's certainly been the pattern over the past year or so, but again, going back to the

fundamentals, going back to the denominator and the pe ratio, earnings are going to be the driver here, and those fundamentals are simply superior >> let's talk about the fed for a minute there's no meeting this month, cameron, obviously next month, though, is going to be front and center. again, are they done >> i think that there's a chance that they still go in may. if we don't have any more banking issues, just for the reason they will only have march data to work with, because the april data comes out after they meet they meet on may 3rd and 4th, and so when we look at the underlying growth that we saw, if we look at gdp now survey, that would all point to this economy still remaining strong through the month of march, so if they're looking at that data, and they are data-dependent, that would support another 25 basis-point move which is what we've heard from all the fed speak over the last couple weeks. >> if they do that, do you think the 25 in may would be it? >> likely. >> i mean, i feel like the market is, in part, moving not just on the idea of a pause but on the idea of, okay, we can

handle another 25, we think, and then that's it >> and then that's it. but then what comes next because what's already being priced in is a lot of cuts by the time we would get to january of next year, nearly a hundred basis points of cuts, so for the bond market to be right or for the bond market to price in even more cuts, you would have to see the fed effectively outdove the bond market, which is already very dovish >> emily, you're looking at the two-year, and you think that that is a tell of rate cuts to come you think the fed cuts >> yeah, definitely. over the course of this year i think cameron's right, maybe one more in may, but it's so unusual to see some of these moves in the two-year treasury it's acting like a meme stock right now. we saw the two-year fall 137 basis points over the course of just a couple of weeks and that's a significant tell that the fed is likely to cut rates you don't normally see that type of action in the short end of the curve, and you don't see rate cuts after that

i think that's the response here the fed funds rate is now meaningfully higher than the two-year treasury. that's the direction i think the bond market's probably right here >> all right, emily, thank you leave it there cameron, thanks as well. let's get to our twitter question of day. we want to know which one of these q1 losers is the best bet for q2 is it charles schwab, 3m or j j&j? head to twitter to vote. we will share those results a little bit later on in the hour. in the meantime, let's get a check on some top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> the worst performer on the nasdaq, despite posting a record quarterly deliveries after some deep price cuts. so, a little short of the fact consensus, so that could be part of the reason. you have to keep in mind, this stock has run up almost 80% in the last three months so like

phil le beau has said, investors might be waiting for q1 results and maybe more information on margins. rivian lower after q1's decline, so that's why shares are down 2.4% and lastly, shares of software hr firm pay chex trending almost 2% lower barclay's keeps an underweight rating bank of america just downgraded the stock to hold on worries of an economic slowdown, and they didn't gist downgrade pay chex they also downgraded payroll from adp, saying the stock tends to lag as unemployment starts to rise >> all right, thank you. kristina partsinevelos, we'll see you in just a bit. we are just getting started clear on "closing bell." up next, shares of endeavor and wwe moving lower on the back of some big-deal news

later, a change of heart, bernstein upgrading shares of intel today after being bearish on the name. >> their datacenter results were horrendous, and they sort of suggested they were going to get worse. datacenter, i think, is going to steam roll them this year. i think intel this year are -- i don't see any reason they clearly got caught on the wrong foot here. it's not even just this quarter. they haven't had a good print in a while. this seems to be just where they went off the cliff, though they're out of money, out of free cash flow they're burning cash well, that doesn't sound so optimistic now, does it? we will talk about that upgrade when stacy joins us with his updated outlook. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade

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introducing the xfinity 10g network. super fast internet today. with even faster speeds tomorrow. woo-hoo! disney's ceo, bob iger, firing back at florida governor ron desantis today, mr. iger responding to a question at the company's annual shareholder meeting calling desantis's push to control the district that contains disneyworld, "anti-business and anti-florida." all of this as the governor orders an investigation into an agreement between disney and the district's previous oversight board. let's bring in disney shareholder and cnbc contributor brenda now it's good to talk to you today, especially as all of this is taking place, and now we have this battle staying in the news as it is does that issue in and of itself

in any way affect how you think about this stock and the prospects for it going forward >> it doesn't, but i do think it's unfortunate that this is coming up as just one more potential distraction for bob iger to try to deal with when he's trying to institute significant change at the company over the next couple years. from our standpoint, this does not change how we view the stock, but i think this was a tricky environment that we're in where disney is a company that really has always tried to be inclusive of all, and i think that was at the heart of the statement that was made last year that's now leading. i think some of this back and forth with desantis, but in our view, this does not change our view of the stock at all we continue to think that disney is incredibly uniquely positioned within the space, really content is so unique. we've heard a lot about that recently with some speculation that apple might be interested

in the company, but this does not change our view. >> what does matter most, if this does not? >> i think, really, seeing bob iger implement the plan that he talked about just recently, in february, where the company plans to cut $5.5 billion of cost, have three new business units, organize the company into three business units, really focus on creativity leading some of the business decisions they make those are heart, in our view, of seeing this company turn around, although we would say the company is incredibly valuable as it is so, to the extent that bob iger can make it a little bit better by improving profitability, especially within the streaming part of the business, that's an added bonus. but i really think that that's what's going to be the most important. but i'll also say the other thing that i think we need to start hearing about soon is a succession plan or at least learning more about more senior executives at the firm that

might be in the running to eventually take bob iger's place, because two years is going to go by pretty quickly. >> yeah. all right, brenda, we'll talk to you soon, thank you. cnbc contributor quick programming note, by the way. do not miss tonight, "last call," the close ally of governor desantis, central florida tourism board bridget ziegler joins brian sullivan tune into "last call" tonight at 7:00 eastern time. speaking of the entertainment business, both the endeavor and wwe shares lower on news that endeavor will merge its ufc brand with the wwe, forming a new company that will eventually go public on the new york stock exchange. the transaction values the so far unnamed company at some $21 billion. $12 billion for the ufc, $9.3 billion for the wwe, which is a substantial premium over wwe's current $6.5 billion market cap after the deal closes, expected

in the fourth quarter, endeavor will hold a 51% controlling interest in the wwe enterprise while existing shareholders will hold a 49% interest. i asked ari emanuel about the situation during an exclusive interview on sunday in los angeles. >> we paid a fair price, and i'll tell you why. we paid a little bit for control premium. with our cost cuts, their new deals coming up, which is right now, and our cost savings that we think we can extract from the business right now and grow the business with all of our levers, whether that be international sales, domestic, sponsorship, gambling, all the things that we do, i think it's right i would also say to you, when i bought ge, everybody said i overpaid it was one of the cheapest deals in sports. for sure when i bought the ufc, they were like, crazy. we've tripled the ebitda in that

period of time and now with this, this is going to be ufc 2.0. as it relates to all the things in the flywheel that we can bring. and we have unbelievably attractive economics the balance sheet's incredible our debt ratio is less than three times. our free cash flow conversion is unbelievable so, i think when people look at this business on a combined basis and also look at the remaining assets for both shareholder, it's incredible >> are you still as committed to deleveraging as you've told wall street that you are? you said at a conference about a month ago, "we've taken the company from eight times levered to four times. i'd sleep a lot more if we got it lower." you still committed to that? >> well, right now, in the new company, we'll be at, i want to -- i want to make sure i say this below three. and at endeavor, we'll be below three also, times. so i think we're doing our job there. >> why didn't wall street see this coming? i read analyst notes which said

deutsche bank, we believe a wwe acquisition is off the table at this point they thought maybe you were going to go in a different direction. what did wall street miss? >> everything. you know, listen, i don't think people realize, one, that vince saw what we built with the ufc he knows what he wants to do with the wwe and take it to the next level we had long conversations about it we think this is right for both groups i think they just missed the value proposition and the flywheel effect on both of the companies. >> now, the deal creates a live sports and entertainment giant, one that will soon be renegotiating its tv rights deal with partners nbc universal, our parent, fox and potentially even new players. both emanuel and wwe founder vince mcmahon optimistic about what they have to offer, no matter who does the bidding. >> here's what i would say to you. the number one show in cable

is "raw. 1.8 million viewers, up 9% from the same period of time 2022 to 2023 even though everybody says cable's dying. "raw" is up. "s "smackdown," i think it's 2.3 million viewers, up 7%, same period, same period, and unbelievable thing is, the 18 to 49 demographic is the best in the business and the rate card is way below market by a significant amount so, when you think about those things, and in my opinion, and vince and i talk about this, content is king. there's linear players, cable players, everybody wants the young demographic, the social -- i mean, we're across the board, male, female, young, old, both

assets i think they're going to get a proper price >> and the idea here is, there's nothing like the two combined. it's live. that's really a key. our events are live. people want to watch live. >> yeah. >> one of the reasons why we are a success and continue to be a success and can fit in every medium we can fit everywhere, and in terms of social media and everything else, we fit everywhere >> emanuel made it clear to me he wanted vince mcmahon to stick around, even as many assumed that was unlikely after a scandal that rocked the wwe and sent mcmahon into retirement he returned after nearly six months to help lead a potential transaction, so how will the two coexist? i asked. >> we've known each other for 23 years. when i was a young agent, he said, why don't you represent us it was an honor then throughout the pandemic, we got even closer.

we sold the media rights there's a lot of trust here. but i think we've built the flywheel that vince realized the value in what we do with ufc he could see what we could do with his assets. and i'll just give him a little credit right here. he saw cable when nobody saw cable, and he built a national brand way back in the day when there were about 15 different promoters out there. he built an in-house sales force to sell the product that nobody had, pay-per-view, took it public, and last but not least, i think five, six years ago, he went direct to consumer when none of us were thinking about direct to consumer so, us being with vince and now you're sitting there with a guy who's seen around the corner better than anybody in our space, and him being able to play with our flywheel, just look out >> an important postscript here. i'm personally represented by wme, a unit of endeavor, a

talent agency that represents several cnbc anchors and on-air reporters. up next, macy's big move higher that stock is popping bigtime on the back of an upgrade from none other than the top retail analyst, matthew boss. i can see him standing in the wings, which means he'll be right here with me at post nine next > this is ge vernova, helping generate and move the energy that our world needs. ♪ welcome to a new era of energy.

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macy's shares are higher today after getting an upgrade from jpmorgan, the move coming on the heels of the firm's ninth annual retail round-up conference joining me now to discuss is the top retail analyst on wall street, matthew boss of jpmorgan good to see you. >> you too thanks for having me >> it's a big deal it's being reflected in shares today, primarily because when they announce their 2020 reset to today, you say they've largely accomplished their goals. >> yeah, you nailed it i think the first part was a

leadership overhaul starting in 2020 i think it's a merchandising overhaul, and i think if you now think about the growth verdicts moving forward, this is frankly a different company since 2019 and what i like is they're citing market share opportunity from the specialty sector, so they can coincide with the off-pricers and they have the strongest global brands within the box. >> jeff, the ceo, announced he's leaving early next year. what does that mean? >> i think jeff put in place the stability of the organization. starting in 2020, this overhaul, more from a merchandising, the closure of the stores and right-sizing the box and the distribution profile, that was the heavy lifting that i think jeff has done and now under tony, i think the next leg with tony and adrian, their cfo, i think they're set to accelerate the growth into the back half of '23 and into '24 >> you, i guess, have to admit, i mean, look, for all of the things that the company has done

to help its reset, you know, as they call it, it's a tough time to upgrade retail stocks >> absolutely. >> with all these concerns about the economy. >> absolutely. >> positives to look at? >> 100%. and i have been on before, and we've talked about the tough retail road in the front half of the year the idea with this is a tactical move, meaning, we're staying best in class, we're staying selective. we like nike and lululemon we like off-price for value and convenience, but at two times ebitda, macy's, which is now off 40% relative to early february, this was a tactical opportunity given the hard work that they've done that i think you could see a potential double in this >> so, you consider this to be part of your best-in-class group? >> i think you have best in class, and this is the show-me story but i like the risk-reward on a tactical opportunity such as this. >> why has it been trading at a discount to its peers, because of the ongoing reset and questions about where the company was at the given time?

>> so, you have the brick and mortar versus e-commerce versus off-price debate and they're right at the epicenter of it you have the choppy consumer over the last couple years you have all the changes with the brands that they sell and the disintermediation thesis of brands relative to the retailer that i think the size and scale opportunity, the data science and all of the investments that macy's has made, positions them to come out as one of the winners. >> what's the other takeaway from the conference? i mean, the prevailing view on the state of the consumer is what >> i think it's still uncertainty. that's why we remain selective, but i think now, as you move forward, second quarter of last year is when the consumer rebudgeted that was the peak of the food inflation and the fuel inflation. as you move into the back half of the year, comparisons ease a thousand basis points for the top line, and you lap the margin glut from a year ago when all of the inventory was overheated and

the clearance actions took place. so, you have raw materials that are now coming down, free costs are now coming down, the consumer, i think, has rebalanced, so i think the biggest tone from retailers at our conference was more visibility into the controllables, even despite the uncertainty from the consumer. >> this fits right into my next question when you're talking about macy's, this idea that, you know, department stores were, if not dead, were sort of sucking wind i mean, you know, malls and all of the concerns there. has the state of that changed? are department stores getting new life in any way, or no >> i look at it differently. i think the lines have blurred across all of retail i think what you need to win is value and convenience, so thinking about a company as a department store relative to an online -- i think what really matters is, can you be the destination for top brands, add values and offer convenience that's the investments that i think macy's has made. that's why i think the off-pricers are working, and

that's why the direct. >> to consumer is winning in this environment >> thank you for being here. appreciate your time that's matthew boss of jpmorgan. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head a little bit closer to the close kristina partsinevelos is standing by again with that. >> we have a cybersecurity attack on one semiconductor storage, but one analyst says, don't fret >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco.

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get back to kristina partsinevelos now for a look at some more key stocks to watch today. >> well, let's start with shares of data storage device maker western digital. they're down about 2% after disclosing a cyberattack from march 26th several of its services are still offline right now, and that's why the shares are actually 1.3% lower, so they're a little bit better. but wedbush's matt bryson points out there have been similar breaches at nvidia and amd in the last few years with limited repercussions. in other words, they aren't too worried about western digital. could be an opportunity to buy in shares of united health are up, let's see, almost -- over 4.5% after the center for medicare and medicaid services. on friday afternoon announced updated payment rates. for example, medicare advantage should see revenue increase of

at least 3% higher that means these policy updates could benefit united health care, andthat's why you're seeing the shares up >> big day, unh. thank you. it's the last chance to weigh in on our twitter question of the day we asked, which of these q1 losers is best positioned for q2 charles schwab, end phase energy, 3m or j&j. head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”.

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your brother has landed in the dark lands. they're under bowser's control. [ screaming ] hang on, luigi. [ ominous music playing ] [ screaming ] yes! fire! [ chuckling ] here the results now of our twitter question we asked, which is the best bet for q2 the majority of you saying, charlescab > s hw>>up next, under the radar

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you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mhm. cool...i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?! ♪ yeah, yeah ♪ ♪ we're now in the "closing bell" market zone, cnbc senior market commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day plus scott black of delphi management with two stock ticks he sees weathering market weakness, and stacy rasgon of bernstein on why he is turning reluctantly lukewarm, sort of, kind of on intel we'll talk about that coming up.

mike santoli, you first. it was primarily a two-stock story for much of the day. united health and chevron. s&p is up about 14.5 >> in terms of the dow, that's absolutely the case. nothing else is really standing out in terms of individual names. what i do think is noteworthy is this is exactly how the cooling off of the big tech stocks you would hope it would go if you were bullish on the market, which is a push for the broad tape, 50/50 up and down stocks on the new york stock exchange you havethe index is kind of a push you have software and semis down about 1% each. on a day where you have an opec production cut and a bad manufacturing number and crude's up 6%, the vicks is going to close red. the volatility index is sort of being drained away of drama because we're rotating instead for now of retreating. it looks like the beginning of february great january, accelerated higher into the end of january you had two days of extension higher, and then you got your broader pullback >> nasdaq off the lows

so, they're not letting technology get down too much we'll see if that continues as well scott black, to you. judging from your notes, you're pretty negative on the market, no >> oh, we try to be agnostic in terms of percentage invested, but by any stretch of the imagination, valuations are high if you use 113 for a number on the s&p, which i think is realistic for 2023 earnings, you're 19.5 times earnings the nasdaq is selling at about a 25 multiple, and even the russell 2000, which has been decimated, is over 21 times earnings and i don't think interest rates are coming down in the near future, so i think the market's priced things have been liquidity driven by the megacaps in the month of march as i alluded to the value was down dramatically and lagged the s&p by 12 and 14 percentage points, respectively, which is a huge gulf >> but you do -- you do see the

fed raising interest rates more. i mean, that remains the central question as we head into the second quarter, because you have to believe that part of the rally in the first was on the idea of a pause. >> i don't think so. i'm old enough to remember the early '80s when jimmy carter had high inflation over 12%, they came in at the beginning of the reagan administration. inflation's still running at 6% on cpi, even on a six-month lag, still over 4%, and the pce, that's energy and food, so 4-plus that's nowhere near close to what the fed wants at 2%, so i think that all things being equal, unless we have another disaster worse than silicon valley bank, interest rates, the fed funds rate are going to continue to climb this year. >> okay. let's hope we don't have that. one of your two picks to help weather the storm. you say it's still swirling around us. tell me why chubb and we'll move

to choice number two >> chubb is down to $197 a share and i use it on the balance round table. i think they're going to earn $18.20 it's a 10.8 multiple, 14.5 return on equity quality underwriter. they outpace the industry year in, year out in combined rates by 5 to 600 basis points a year, whether you take a one or five-year trade. premiums are going up. they have a well diversified book of business in terms of lines, commercials, 20%, mid cap commercials, 25% it's a very well run company that's extremely well reserved and they've done a good job. the other thing is they're a beneficiary of rising interest rates. every hundred basis points increment, they earn 1.1 billion payouts.

>> understood. scott, forgive me. i'm going to have to let you go, but i'm doing it for a good cause, and i promise i'll make it up to you down the road, but it's a special day here at the new york stock exchange for the close. the gentleman on your left here is u.s. navy commander everett alvarez. he is walking up to take part in the closing ceremony today along with the united states of america vietnam commemoration. he was a pilot shot down during the vietnam war near hanoi the first american aviator taken captive, he was held for eight years and seven months before being released on february 1, 1973 see him signing the book there alongside josh king of the new york stock exchange. numerous decorations the silver star, two legions of merit, the flying cross, two bronze stars, and two purple hearts great tradition they have here at the new york stock exchange, as you heard those clapping.

any time a serviceman or woman show on the floor of the exchange, and he is going to ring the bell. he's signing the book now as you can see right there, and we certainly thank him for his service. that's, again, u.s. navy commander everett alvarez. we will move back in just a moment to our interview with stacy rasgon, who upgraded intel today. halfheartedly so i said earlier, stacy, no-heartedly so, really, because you still don't like this stock. >> so, look, from a sell-side standpoint, there's two things that are bad the worst thing that happens is when a call blows up the second worst thing that happens is when a call works like, when it works, at some point, you have to figure out what is the right time to take your foot off the gas, and i'll be honest, i actually still would love to be able to make that call. like, it's -- you're right i don't really like the company fundamentally at this point. i think they have got a lot of wood to chop in front of them,

but if you stand back and take a hard look, and i try to be intellectually honest in all the work that i do, i think we're at the point now where tactically expectations are finally low enough there been a lot of basis news that has happened. everybody knows everything that's happened, but it's out there. it's known and then, this is the first time in a long time when i look at the numbers going forward and actually think they're finally low enough, maybe even too low, and i think there is the possibility as we get into the second half and end of the year that we can actually see numbers start to go up for a change rather than down and given that, it's just hard to maintain the underperform call like at least tactically into the end of the year when we get there, we'll see what happens every good thing comes to an end at some point. >> yeah, but let me ask you this in all seriousness, i mean, you mentioned, you're looking at the numbers going forward. and i wonder about the other number going forward, and that's the stock price and the fact that this stock over the past few months, if my memory serves me correct, is up better than 20

or some-odd percent. >> yeah. >> you swayed at all by being afraid of missing what looks to be a more technically advantaged stock, if you will >> we're already there it's already been strong what marked the bottom was actually the dividend cut a little while back. that day or the day after was the bottom of the stock, and then people started to buy it, because i think, again, if you were tactically short on bad news happening, that was about the end of it. that was kind of marked like the worst that could happen, and i think the general view is it can only get better from here, and again, you start to look at the dynamics, pcs have obviously been really, really bad, but where the company was, like, stuffing the channel before, they're now draining out inventory. you can look at expectations for both client and datacenter again as we get into the back half, and there's almost no growth in some case, there are still

declines, year over year, built into the street numbers, even as we're potentially going to go from an undershifted regime to a more normalized regime the idea that the bad news such as it is, barring some other, like, thing out of left field, which i guess could happen, it's intel, but barring that, the idea that, like, enough bad news in the stock where people can feel more comfortable buying it, i think we've been in that technical regime for a while >> so, what -- okay. technically, yes, i hear you, but what gets you to the point, fundamentally, where you can say, you know what, i think the risk-reward is decent enough that you can buy the stock >> i mean, look, let's leook at the road map execution they had their datacenter event last week, and the stock was up, i think, 10% in the day or two after that, not because they said anything was better, just it wasn't getting worse. that's fine. let's see it actually start to get better and then maybe we can talk >> good to have you. interesting call

certainly had a lot of people talking today. even you, in the manner in which you described your own upgrade we'll talk to you soon that's stacy rasgon. mike, we'll get the two-minute warning in just a moment we need to talk energy whether this surprise opec cut has this trade back on the move for the first time in months >> it's back alive what's interesting is -- and we were talking about it last week -- you were able to say, even through all the bad news and the macro uncertainty and the fact that oil had trouble getting out of its own way, it wasn't breaking $70. it was in this range now we're at the top end of that range. i think the stocks are responding very well, but they also have been outperforming crude. i was looking at the free cash flow etf, the cash cows etf. it's 35% energy, so that's what this stocks are about. the stocks are about, we think they can maintain the free cash flow and the shareholder capital return and things like that. i don't know if it means crude actually gets moving we do have the dollar weaker right here but it's not exactly like it

caught flight. we're still at $80 brent was actually down. so, we'll see how it plays out i do think it insulates you from this sense out there that the fundamentals are really falling away for crude, even if demand is not really roaring back >> noticing, as we're showing these stocks on the right-hand chart, apple, positive on the day. you describe -- you didn't use the word, but i was thinking of it as you said the orderly nature of, if this is how tech is going to pull back, so be it, and fine with me >> look, it might be a lot to ask for it to be exactly this gentle you are overbought on the big cap indexes. you can go sideways for a while, and that takes care of that. the vicks, i was flagging the stat on friday too if it closes here, we're down seven days in a row. it's extremely rare to have that kind of volatility drain, so it's happening at a time when the s&p is, like, 1% from its high for the year. so, i think it is a good test,

but the nature of the pullback is going to be significant, and if it is really benign, the way this is so far, and people aren't leaving the market, just moving within it, i think it's a net positive we'll see if it can last >> nasdaq was down 1%. it recovered quite substantially. the s&p 500, about 0.33% higher. the dow leading the day, up 1% as the closing bell rings. i'll send it to morgan in "overtime. ♪ and i'll take it it's a mixed picture for the major averages to start the month as techs take the breather energy stocks surge. that's the scorecard on wall street, but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell" overtime, i'm morgan brennan john is off today. coming up, disney hosting its annual shareholder meeting this afternoon, the first since bob iger's return to the top job we'll discuss the highlights and the company's future with former hulu and netflix executive simon gallagher. jo