barry, thank you for the stuff. >> it gets better. it will get better. >> glad to have you onset. >> thanks, becky. a quick final check on the markets. the dow futures indicated up by about 26 points. s&p futures up by 11 right now the nasdaq up by just 42 points. that does it for us today. make sure you join us tomorrow we'll be right back here -- >> for three hours, until friday. >> then one hour see you later. ♪ ♪ good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with james cramer david faber has the morning off. the s&p coming off four straight gains, the longest win since january. oil continues its climb. australia becomes the latest central bank to pause after ten straight hikes the dow and s&p looking to

extend the win streak. jamie dimon says the banking crisis is not over, but that it will pass. have you seen my stapler google looking to cut some costs including cutting back on employee laptop services and, yes, office supplies let's begin with the markets and dimon's annual letter to shareholders he writes, the current crisis is not yet over, and even when it is behind us, there will be repercussions from it for years to come. importantly, recent events are nothing like what occurred during the 2008 global financial crisis jim, his point is there are fewer players with those types of issues and those issues are easier to solve. >> i thought that was absolutely great. i did feel better. having it not done is an issue it's always required reading and always very thoughtful. >> he works hard on it >> he really does. i think it's a great state of

the state. my issue is on page 17 he says we need banks to be attractable investments, they need to be investable, not uninvestable they've become uninvestable for all the reasons he says are wrong with the bank situation. he says in conclusion we need them to be investable. he has page after page about how his bank is doing better than everyone else which is true. the fact is they all need to do better it means if the industry is not worth owning, it's very difficult to justify -- >> we're going to talk -- we'll check in with mike in the next hour and talk about his view on the banks going into earnings. he has suggested the bank discount will come off in his view we're not looking at a situation where you need capital raises in the near term. >> if you want to make it so great banks can demonstrate

their greatness, raise dividends like every other country, allow them to buy back stock, allow them to be able to have some sort of status where they are required as being -- they've checked off a lot of boxes a lot easier, the stress test in retrospect didn't really work. the fact is that jpmorgan stock is being kept back by silicon valley, first republic, zion, comerica zion to me has always been a little too aggressive. i agree with him that the banking landscape is uninvestable i sent a note saying i feel terrible because i've been saying they're uninvestable simply because the bad is driving out the good so all those terrific charts that jamie has that shows spectacular return on investment just don't matter if there's

five or six ne'er-do-wells. >> it's not all about bank management he say this is is not to absolve bank management, it's to acknowledge this wasn't the finest hour by many players. he's suggesting i think that supervision was lacking. >> i think there are a lot of people who actually feel under their breath, like senator warren, who is basically saying, okay, let's fire a lot of the people in the fed out in san francisco. i come back to there are people who watch our show who would say, wow, my boss would be fired if they did that they always wonder, well, why is it that no one -- why don't we have a top five list of people who should not be playing. look, i went to the super bowl and there was a ref that made a call against a guy named brad berry, a good player everyone in philadelphia knows that ref and thinks that ref should never play again. we don't know which refs blew

silicon valley or first republic what she's saying is let's out them, let's have some sunshine, let's admit that that review didn't work and assign some blame. we all know you can look up to holding maturity portfolios. you knew there would be trouble. what did you do? just scold them? that's jamie's problem, in there was even regulation, which there not, if there was technological pro prowess, using nvidia, ai, we'd be able to catch things. no they're all there. everybody who did this, there's a beautiful building, federal reserve building in san francisco, and everybody who went in there, the ceo still goes in. >> we're waiting for the review. >> i've been fired a couple times. it was not because of anything i did wrong. it was reduction in force. i fired hundreds of people i always say the institution must be preserved.

it's a black park. you don't kpom home and say, yeah, let's fire sometimes it's necessary. >> as for the consumer, he says as of april 1st, this past weekend, consumer spending running ahead of a year ago. balance sheets in, quote, great shape, still 1.2 trillion in excess savings. >> how about commercial real estate, other than san francisco and new york being great i can tell you san francisco, a lot of this is like chicago election, if there was less fear, less crime -- i think new york real estate is coming back. i may be in the minority we can't find the real bad stuff. wells fargo is probably the best it's ever been in the history of wells fargo. i would say if i own wells fargo and something bad happens at first republic, i really feel badly -- that's how i feel about these things we made it so we only own wells forego and morgan stanley.

we're just afraid one of the banks we're not thinking about goes down and wells goes to 32. >> how long does the market have to look over its shoulder? i'm looking at this gordon haskett, the trim numbers on costco today on comps because of what they call the cnn effect from the silicon valley, they go to 1%. >> this is costco's time in that they're eating a lot of margin in order to bring in customers they do everything on a volume basis. i think costco is a terrific investment if that's what their number is, i like it even more. what they're doing is saying this is the moment when people are trading up to kirkland brand. we have promised in an inflationary world to hold the line so when you hear that they don't have comps, it's more from -- good comps, it's more from the fact that they're keeping prices low. all the people that raised price, could be a weather issue, a gasoline issue when you speak to costco,

they're adamant, look, we're not going to raise prices and we'll have so many members you may sell costco now -- my trust has owned it forever you may miss a special dividend, may miss a price increase in the card, but they are not about -- kroger is raising prices costco says we'll take share from them. >> speaking of price, we'll get ford auto sales in a little bit. jonas last night said incentives ak are up, day supply is up. the pricing discipline is going to crack >> look, jonas' note was superb, and he's talking about numbers, frankly, that makes me feel like the incentives are going up just enough to make me say, you know what in another couple of months, it's going to be like the old days, way too many cars, too many incentives. look at this, 1,529 up from

1,490 last month how about this gm? this isgreat jonas work. i make fun of jonas, but the fact is i make fun because he's interesting. this is just great empirical work my trust owns ford okay, i guess we can get whacked unless they get the costs down remember, 13 billion in ebitda 600,000 run rate got to keep those losses where they are suddenly this, the incentives that are double from last year, we know the banks -- some of the bngs didn't handle the increases immediately. i don't know, are the buyers to cars -- you go to autonation, it looks like things are not great. >> broaden out a bit and it leads you to what jpmorgan said

yesterday. again, kel lon vic who publishes on monday, any decline is not a punchbowl. they say q1 will be the highs for the years on equities. >> that i can't go with. >> you don't go with >> no. when you finish -- the market goes up. you're not fighting the fed. i don't know every time you have the end of the cycle you make money if there's certain parts of it where it can work. when you get a happy days are here again, don't make it sound like they aren't get the fed out of your way. fine >> interesting we're in sort of a bit of a period where it's a while until our next meeting canada has now paused. now australia has paused it was a lack of o other news, markets watching that. >> resource-based economy. in economy i thought that was surprising they paused

when china does well, australia does well. i thought those were surprising. i think jay powell recognizes it's just a couple bad banks, but the reverberations continue. i keep thinking about paychex where they say if you have all your eggs in one basket, you have to make a change. if you have a company that has $800,000 in savings in some sort of pension plan, you're supposed to put $250,000 in different banks. that's difficult the inflows into the major banks went down last week. that's encouraging >> we've been looking at charts in the past few days the s&p riding four straight wins we'll see if we can get five today. the apollo has a good start today. >> wasn't that interesting >> holy cow. >> almost due entirely to 20 companies. we know which ones they are. is it a problem or not

>> look, i think there's nothing you can do when you have a slowdown, a credit slowdown, you tend to want to buy companies that don't need credit. none of those needs credit the issue is what mike wilson said which is, if you're going to invest in tech because it doesn't need credit, you forget that you need revenue growth, earnings growth, profitable growth this works in theory but in two weeks it will be tested by actual numbers you won't be able to say i'm so glad i bought microsoft -- i'm just picking microsoft so glad i bought microsoft because of the sheet: you have to be honest with yourself and recognize that earnings season, it's all -- >> might finally be a bit of a time wind. >> wouldn't that be something? >> when we come back, ford numbers coming out in a moment

we'll get that from phil lebeau. premarket pretty tame here, riding just north of the flat line more "squawk on the street" continues after a break. (seth) also an ipad. that's how i roll. (cecily) ok, wow. (seth) and this apple watch. all three on them. (cecily) nice. (vo) that's right! switch now and get iphone 14 pro on us. there's more! you get apple watch se and ipad. all three on us. that's a value of up to $1700. (seth) and now that i'm rolling with verizon, i get why more people choose it. (vo) but hurry! this offer won't last long. verizon. 92% still active? seems high. seriously? it's just a bike. wait. they make a treadmill with an intuitive speed knob? yeah. want to try? 92% stick with it, so can you. start a 30-day home trial today.

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we talked autos a moment ago. ford is out with its figures for q1 hi, phil. >> the q1 sales are up 10.1% for ford there's no comparables in terms of people who have put out estimates. this is generally in line with what we've seen from other

automakers stronger than expected first quarter. trucks up 19.6%, evs up 41%. as impressive as that sounds, keep in mind they were just starting up production in the first quarter of last year what you're looking at is really not much of a comparable they really weren't producing much last year i also want to show you this, motor intelligence crunches all of the numbers they do this after every month of auto sales. we asked them, put together all the ev sales who sold the most evs here in the u.s. in the first quarter. no surprise tesla still leads, though its market share has eroded, down to just over 62%. gm is now number two in u.s. ev sales for the first quarter. ford drops all the way down to number five with just over 4% market share i know this is a little lumpy. it can move quarter to quarter, but this says something guys in terms of tesla still dominates the market and will dominate the market at least for the next couple years, so to speak.

>> i know that ford has tremendous demand for the 150 lightning. they're obviously having trouble meeting the demand at what point can we say it's just a positive, they keep raising prices and there hasn't been any degradation of demand for sales. isn't that a positive for ford >> that is a positive, jim i don't think anybody would dispute the fact that now they have raised the price again on the f-150 lightning, they know that segment is there, but you hit the key point. can you meet demand? look at the numbers in the first quarter? they're just ramping up production i know their plans are to d dramatically increase production this year and into this year they sold here in the u.s. 4,298 lightnings there's a lot more demand than 4,298 lightnings they have to strike while the

iron is hot. they have to strike while the iron is hot. i tell you this because i know some people will be surprised. we know the model 3 and model y are the two best-selling evs in the u.s. guess what number three is chevy bolt euv it's way lower than the tesla models that says something about the demand for a lower-priced ev that is a segment that whoever can hit it is going to hit it big. >> yeah. jonas did a whole report on it. >> yes, he did >> saying who is going to make a low-priced ev? all the legacy guys are interested in making expensive pickups and everything else. >> exactly look, that segment up there, that audience is there for the expensive ones at some point you've got to come in with that mid-priced one. >> how about how few hummers they can make? that's a fabulous car.

the sport hummers supposed to be coming out did they make 12 what's going on? how hard are these things to make >> jim, i'm looking at the numbers here i believe they sold two in the first quarter. >> that may not be significant enough to move the needle for gm >> i would say not i would say two is not going to move the needle. >> barry, i'm sorry. that was a cruel joke. i didn't mean that mary. >> phil, does gm present today, by the way at b of a >> yes, at bank of america paul jacobson will be there watching we'll be watching to see what he says about the cost cuts that they've put in remember that they offered employees an early buyout. the idea here is they want to cut $2 billion this year and next year combined this is going to be going a long ways towards that. we'll see if he gets an update on that. >> phil lebeau, thanks

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visit coventrydirect.com. time for cramer's mad dash as we count down to the opening bell. >> one of my favorite pieces of research is the piper team survey which is just fantastic it's great work. it's also investable what do they say nike maintaining share it's absolutely true that hope is coming on it's absolutely true that you can buy deckers, but it looks like nike. this one is interesting. meta, teens voted instagram as

their favorite, up 300 basis points my favorite is apple, and they talk about they like the cell phone. but my favorite page of this whole report is favorite watch brand. apple. number two, rolex! i love this survey oh, my if i were tim cook, i would say we win because also apple, again square i would be very careful if i were square, not because of the short report, but the cash app could lose out to apple pay just because of how ubiquitous apple pay is >> interesting i'm thinking back to when they launched the category, the watch category we immediately thought what are they going to do to the swiss watch market the second-mover advantage they have, they use again and again >> there's a big line to get into rolex i said rolex is very popular. >> shemy wife said no, they're

probably stealing them, just at ross stores, there's a line. when you steal from ross, it's not as much as rolex >> the bottom line from the piper survey >> they are just these brands like nike that you can chip away at them, but they are unassailable with china coming back -- buy apple. then, yes, i have to include meta because i think that instagram increase plays right into the year of efficiency. we've become more efficient and get an uptick in instagram use look out that's why i think meta is still a great stock. >> it will be interesting if there were any kind of bleed to reels. even in advance of the tick tock ban. >> we think reelz without the government is becoming bigger.

america's best is still the best advertiser on tiktok i know. they are such a good company they didn't fare as well as i thought. but look out there are advertisers thinking, i don't know maybe i ought to split the money, split my belts, put some of it on -- >> interesting the piper survey is one of our favorite pieces of the year. >> so great. >> opening bell in a couple tenus. you can catch us any time anywhere, listen to and follow the "squawk on the street" opening bell podcast back after a break [ ominous music playing ] yeah!

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we wanted to put our energy and efforts into turning the situation around it pains me that we didn't have the time to do so and in that fateful week in march, our plans were thwarted. and for that i am truly sorry. i apologize that we were no longer able to stem the loss of trust that had accumulated over the years and for disappointing you. i would like to apologize for

that. >> that is credit suisse apologizing for their episode. the swiss probe going on ubs in the midst of what looks like many, many lay-offs. >> obviously you keep hoping people recognize, guys, they weren't making money for years so you can apologize for what happened but how about taking a look at how poorly you performed for so many years and analyze that. what did you do wrong for five years? that raid on deutsche bank, they've been doing so many things right for five years, i think a longer term view for how poorly credit suisse has don't have far more important -- >> if you believe senate finance not adhering to the plea they made regarding tax evasion conspiracy a year ago. >> rogue, they were rogue. i think the apology should not be accepted. don't accept his apology

let's find out how they got there. where were the risks -- why were they the worse they were the worst of the europeans. i know part of jamie dimon's letter talks about basically how and what did those guys balance sheets look like over there. what do theirs look like we don't know. >> let's get the opening bell here and the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, industrial products manufacturer crane company, celebrating the separation from crane holdings 4129 this morning, jim the jpmorgan desk said 4150 as an area to pull more bulls in. >> look, it's become exciting. people talk about the markets. it's been ages you go to the mall and talk to people and say, hey, i made a little money in my 401(k).

they're excited. i think you have to recognize we're overbought and could be in for a pullback ahead of earnings i think there's something going on in this market bigger than people realize and it's a presumption that you should be selling when we get to these ceilings may be wrong. >> still, though, the s&p is roughly at levels it was at last may, last august, last december. some argue we're just in a sideways market here. >> i think we'll be better than sideways i think when you see the 20 responsible for so much, that is not bad. next time it's going to be 50, then 100 you'll say, wow, i sold because it was 20. i didn't realize the rally was going to broaden the market caps for those companies are so big think about nvidia, somebody one of the biggest stat stocks nvidia is of course a remarkable

company in how they're changing the world right now. there are other companies that are going to change because of nvidia we're going to be thinking about adobe as being a gigantic company because of nvidia. oracle suddenly could become a much bigger company than it is as katz gets her due and the cloud business is coming on strongly. >> an upgrade this morning of service now. >> what a great example. -- doing a fantastic job. the quarter is going to be amazing. a $96 billion company, could easily be a $200 billion company if it got its due. think about salesforce salesforce $197 billion. if this stock went back to where it was last year, 220. that can happen. i think they're having a terrific quarter a lot of companies in the 150 to 200 billion category, they could go to 200, 300 billion. >> the spoint that the deals are

less skrags nair valuation is the low end -- >> that was a very good point. i know bill mcdermott has said that many times, a good friend of the show and "mad money." it's always been delivering numbers since he got there that shows that service now is integral to the company's success. i think that stock is depressed, and it shouldn't be. >> actually a pretty constructive morning for upgrades service now is one comcast gets one over at key they go to overweight. >> i think that's valuations you always start getting these which is, wait a second. this stock has been down long enough the rails calls that we saw. okay the rails -- we know the negatives are in when you start seeing those kinds of calls, what it says is, oh, you want to downgrade boeing to a sell, i'm buying boeing on that sell. i'm buying it. i think we have to recognize there's an animal spirited thing going on

it's very difficult to quantify. it's very etherial it's about how a price series multiple is expanding on something you thought was a value trap. >> jim is right. it's north coast that cuts boeing today, 180. csx up to equal wait you mentioned piper early. they go to overweight 140. >> i thought the call showed the ebitda margins are the biggest of the group we have to start accepting etsy and shopify as integral to what came out of covid and forget covid. it's just a growth stock it seems to be footballed all the time by analysts, up, down, up, down how about just owning it josh virl man is doing amazing things at etsy he's got worldwide acceptance. maybe it's time to start thinking about etsy for the long term as a very interesting

company. >> they do point out valuation compelling they think active buyer growth accelerates from here. >> that's important. we've got more companies that people are buying things from. and i also think that there's going to be a broadening of the consumer package goods companies. pepsico has gone from 171 -- i think you'll find out that pepsi deserved every bit of that. >> it looked at the chart of coke which had interesting defensive moves somewhere in the -- i don't know. call it the 50-60 range. >> i think coke breaks out here, 25 times earnings, 3% yield. they can raise the dividend. i think the number will prove to be good. a lot of times it's dependent on convenient stores. a lot of innovation. the small format is really working for them i think coca-cola is a winner. i can go over these companies. there's one we never talk about. no one ever talks about merck. merck is doing -- they have so

many different franchises that are doing well, not just treating cancer. how about throwing an 18 multiple in? why not? you want to do it by earnings. there are a lot of depressed stocks because we've been in a bear market for quite a while. >> another great table was huge companies with large 4x exposure since the dollar peaked in september. there's only three that are down tesla, pfizer and danaher. >> i'm glad you mentioned danaher. this is the longest i've ever been disappointed by danaher this is the rails brothers really terrific. they're getting rid of a lower multiple company i think that's going to cause a nice spurt but the analysts are against it because life sciences, they're all really -- the subtle thing is it's covid. they made machines and now they're dead

i think we're now in that new era where we have to forget about covid as a reason to buy or sell stocks look at the future not the past and recognize that just as danaher made a lot of money -- >> that's a line i never thought i would hear again disregard covid -- >> it's keeping stocks back that shouldn't be kept back. >> we mentioned consumer spending walmart does have its investor day tomorrow. >> that's going to be very exciting >> the argument here is that it's going to give us our first broad look at spending patterns and whether or not they shifted during the bank crisis. >> what i do hope is this -- doug was on the show doug is from a school of thought, stone chest panel just put the numbers out. i shop at walmart. i kind of like it. they've got some good prices i like to see what the labels are. they want to be made in america. i love the fact that they make it in jordan, in sri lanka

what bothers me about walmart is they never say we're crushing it i want doug to say, look, we're crushing it. no, jim, that's not what we do they make it tough on themselves big fedex meeting coming up. i think raj, too, will be very self-effacing. you want to invest with him but walmart, there was a good piece where it's had mixed performance after their analyst meeting. that concerned me because it would not surprise me for doug to say -- and people would say back to 138. sell back to 138. >> speaking of annual meetings, iger yesterday, disney knocking on the door of 100 once again, talking about the situation in florida. their long-term commitment to jobs there and the amount of capx they've planned at walt

disney world take a listen. >> the governor got very angry about the position disney took, and it seems like he's decided to retaliate against us, including the naming of a new board to oversee the property and the business, in effect to seek to punish a company for its exercise of a constitutional right. that just seems really wrong to me against any company or individual, but particularly against a company that means so much to the state that you live in our point on this is any action that thwarts those efforts simply to retaliate for a position the company took sounds not just anti business, but sounds anti florida. i'll just leave it at that >> coming out swinging >> oh, man right in the wheelhouse. one of the reason people -- when i hear people say i hope desantis runs, he's pro business holy cow why don't we just put an end to that how about a slogan of vote

against desantis, he's anti business that was such a brilliant deflection by iger you know what would really be great? bob better be careful. desantis could say i saw disney's quarter and it wasn't so good. desantis takes numbers down to disney -- >> meantime, disney -- live action in my juana what's the statute of limitations from the original franchise to the time you take it to live action? >> you know who knows that s stuff. ike. they saved a little money there. there was a way to handle that better >> talking about the ma juana live action. today at walt disney world, they are now open for the first time,

the tron light cycle ride which is, again, giving more of a tailwind to the theme parks. >> comcast is under theme park there's a lot more they can do i think that they will do it i think that will be very good -- i was watching everything that apple has. shrinkage, ted lasso >> -- >> i was saying warner brothers is doing terrific. people said no, that's apple no, warner brothers. i think david zaslav is one quarter away from telling us how he paid down $4 billion in debt and ha-ha for all the people that didn't like it. >> i'm glad you mentioned apple. some reports about trimming some head count on the retail teams, jim. google we mentioned cutting down on office supplies

by the way, we now have the official numbers of lay-offs in q2 in tech which has now su surpassed all of '22. >> a white collar recession, silicon valley recession you've got five months of full pay if you were laid off surveys i've don't says everybody got a job pretty quickly. just a shortage of engineers i'm not -- i just think that that is the one thing that's made it so there's no morbid up of homes in california we're not seeing a spike anymore in home prices in california >> the entire west coast is red. >> i know. seattle -- that's become not a bad market at all. san francisco, not a good market that's something that maybe pal can say. i look for things he has that are going for him, and there's not much right now silicon valley bank certainly

helps -- >> we'll get voljolts at the too the hour do you have a view on what jobs numbers are going to bring on friday >> i don't know. everyone around the 200,000. i think it was a transition month in that you had a tale of two months you had the beginning with a head of steam and at the end people started realizing, wow, we've got to be a little more defensive. when you look at -- i know ruth is associated with the google story. xi does the conference call. i don't want fewer staplers, i want fewer people stapling get rid of the -- keep the staples, get rid of the people it's like the cannoli. >> yeah. bang for your buck we showed the chart of coke, which reminded me of what mcdonald's has done in the wake of their own head count reductions all-time high yesterday going back to 1965 today we had the qsr upgrade the

other day. today papa john's talking about 600 restaurants in india by 2023. >> india was a great market for domino's i worked on pat doyle's effort to put a no cheese, for the vegetarians. i said i've got a vegan daughter i want the no cheese he said, all right, we got it. then it turned out it was a huge hit in india >> cramer, head of business development. >> just raised our comps by 30% in india because your daughter won't eat cheese look, i think dominos -- it's their time to make some money. papa john's is doing well. texas road house is doing well people do want to go out to dinner that hawes on the changed. the go-out trade is still alive and well i think the travel trade is the one i'm concerned about. i've been doing a lot of work on

hertz. i think as long as people continue to travel, we're still getting good travel numbers. that's what i'm watching that's when the money runs out the trips will change. they won't go to milan they'll go to oswego. >> we've got a piece on dot-com about china travel right now the chinese consumer is choosing to travel domestically as opposed to overseas >> estee lauder, they make money either way oh, no why didn't you tell me >> you want to come back you're welcome to come back. >> i wanted something special. you have them? >> he's going to be talking about -- >> honestly, i'm trying to get him to give me a quote for my

piece tonight. he should have said, you need to know i'm going to be on today. he should have said that there's no reason why he should have done that to me i'm changing my piece right now. he's an old friend from goldman when he was cfo. i think he's doing some dynamic things and he's really worth listening to he has a handle on travel booked internationally. i'm joking i'm not mad. >> we'll watch the airlines as well, jim, because i think american also joining jetblue in cutting flights in the new york area. >> gees, i don't want to see that i don't want to see that. >> yesterday b ofa had their top ten ideas list for the quarter of the sells, only two sells ual is one of them >> i know. the airlines have not been able to capitalize on having an extremely full flight. it is remarkable to me their cost structure again got out of whack southwest, holy cow. remember when that was just --

they never missed. these companies are not -- of those i think probably delta is doing the best i'm very perplexed at how they can make so little money with the product that you can't get -- i was on a midday flight to coasta rica an extremely full flight i said where are these people? you're going there, everyone else is going there. anyone been on a flight where there's a seat anyone no >> wasn't it buffett in the wake of u.s. heir said no airline is going to beat a wonderful business. >> that was tough. that and solomon brothers. i'd rather footnote all the winners than losers. >> you can always get in on the cnbc investing club with jim find out more at

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>> there's a debate how much the bank crisis is equivalent to in tightening is it a 25 basis hike, a full percentage point hike? how can we know that >> we will just have to watch it the other problem, sarah, is the fed may care less about the ultimate gdp impact of this than it will the inflation impact

when you look at credit tightening, you can see the standards go down. it is hard to correlate. i have seen a bump of work that's been done some say the auto purchases can beimmune wells fargo security joins us and they're saying positive outflows too according to the data mike just looked at >> when it comes to banks goliath is waiting and the largest banks are winning. in the battle of fear and reed fear pounced greed but my forecast is greed makes a comeback when it comes to large bank stocks. you will get earnings starting a week from friday, especially from jpmorgan and citigroup, two

of my favorites. i think you will see decent revenue growth. >> i thought bank of america was your favorite. >> no, we reordered things main street banking was the theme but recent events and the bank failures, now goliath is winning. we like citigroup, pnc, and when you look at the four largest banks including bank of america, still recommend them, but the change in regulation is not so much for them and they've benefited from an inflow of deposits and credit quality is still good you will look at the results if a week from friday and see 10% year over year growth and you're going to say what banking crisis at the largest banks it is it is quiz time, are you ready

>> we generally don't enjoy quizzes. >> we interview you. >> so when i look at a group of banks -- not banks a group of companies, 40% would be insolvent if you took out all of their intangible assets in other words, you know, negative tangible equity what group of companies am i talking about. this is easy, i'm a bank analyst. >> bank. >> no, 40% of the s&p 500 has tangible equity. if you want to do a burn down or liquidation analysis on banks, i know it is not apples to apples, these are different companies, but keep in mind a liquidation analysis is night and day than an analysis based on ongoing concerns they're core deposit relationships with core consumers and customers. >> it is not the debate though the debate is the earnings profile with sharply lower margins. >> now it is

>> well, we are moving from a period of bank crisis to bank recession. but if i see one more article that cherry picks the unrealized losses at banks without giving credit for the unrealized gains, it is like everyone is a bank analyst. good news is i can talk about arcane banking the one on the street, but this idea of banking analysis is crazy. the other thing that needs to be clarified is jd power indicated over two-thirds, over 80% of people out there think that the fdic is just another government agency in other words we are all paying our taxes now and they think their taxes are going to help the banking industry the fdic is 100% funded by the banks, led by jamie dimon and jp mortgage so the banking industry is resolving it on its own. i think greed will take a lead up again and you will see the

largest banks do quite well. >> i'm thinking back to last year when one of the biggest issue was expense control and you were on a tear about expense growth at some of the big banks. does that change as well >> i upgraded jpmorgan with the news of the silicon bank failure. that's been the right call so far. they have benefited. jamie dimon today says they have record revenues. they didn't report they also have record expenses having said that, these are lesser issues compared to the strength and stability of the larger banks one reece job is they've had so much regulation their stronger the change in regulation ahead for citigroup, jpmorgan, and the others will be not much compared to the -- you know, after the top ten bafrnks, the next dozen. as to the liquidation that's tan place, the government has turned things around in 3 1/2 weeks you said up a fed back stop,

credit suisse is resolved, you had debates the house and senate the white house came out with something. they're all doing it with an eye to the future without upsetting near-term markets. the white house statement from last week, the fact sheet said, you know, we think banks should have more capital after a considerable transition period so jamie dimon's letter said regulators don't have a knee jerk reaction. he is probably more concerned about that, more afraid of what might come do not make big changes, washington, d.c., in the midst of a jittery market. you are one headline away from causing a retracement and concern so everybody should be hypersensitive to what could disrupt markets. >> this is what you argued last week, and that is resolve some of the problem players and no immediate capital raises in your view, is that right? >> that's correct. don't change your game plan midstream and that includes the fdic the fdic has a program for

banks, have to recap -- you know, build up the insurance fund by 2018 now, there probably will be special assessments, but you know what? even if you had another silicon valley and another hole, banks can fill the hole where they need to be by 2028 sorry, 2028, with one-quarters worth of earnings. in other words the industry has resiliency to resolve and pay off, you know, the depositors and even the uninsured depositors at silicon valley and signature. to get through the short period the industry has enough resiliency to get by jamie diamond reminded you today. i testified to the congressional committee about that, much smaller players and smaller issues and we will talk about commercial real estate and lower interest margins, we will talk about maybe a contracture

because if banks don't have credit they will reduce the amount of lending they do. but those are separate issues from is my money safe if the bank i think these have stabilized. it is day seven, but hypervigilant is how everybody needs to be, especially as you get through the earnings period and we see how some of the smaller banks perform or not perform. >> i want to push back on one thing which is that -- has been really weak. maybe that's stability in that we're not seeing 60% share price drops like around hsbc, but they're unsure how to treat regional banks in an era where you can lose $40 million in a matter of hours. we get you like the big banks but does it change the models and viability for regionals? >> i think it is jamie dimon's

letter today said the smaller bank, community banks are essential to our economy to texthe ex depatent there aree at that level, it is not tough to resolve you shouldn't get there in the first place, but i think that the larger banks have the resiliency, the capital, the liquidity to help resolve those issues you're right, it is an outstanding question what are you going to do about deposit shooshs? do you increase the limit? why do you have a one-size-fits-all program? if you are having more deposits, charge more. it is not that complicated, just going to take time you need a bridge. as you build the bridge from now until whenever the permanent solution is, can you have -- >> but that is where the action is slow, not the crisis momentum, this in-between murky land where we are. >> during this murky land we had a couple more. it is one-quarter worth of bank

earnings to replenish the fdic fund and that's it greed will make a comeback starting a week from friday. you can call me back if you need to >> we will >> on fire mike, enjoy the family conversations. >> i know what dad does now. >> mike mayo as we go to break look at the roadmap for the rest of the iger disney's iger taking aim at ron desantis at yesterday's meeting. what comes next. plunging to fresh new lows and one part of the market continues to outperform. we will tell you which mcdomnald's all-time highs going back to the ipo of 1965. a big show still ahead stay with us

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>> the governor got angry about the position disney took and seemingly decided to retaliate against us including the naming of a new board to oversee the property and business, in effect to punish a company for its exercise of a constitutional right. that just seems really wrong to me against any company or individual but particularly against a company that means so much to the state that you live in our point on this is any action towards those efforts simply to retaliate for a position that the company took sounds not just anti-business but it sounds anti-florida, and i will just leave it at that

>> disney's bob iger not pulling punches at yesterday's shareholder meeting as tensions continue to grow between the company and florida governor ron desantis julia boorstin has been following that story and joins us to discuss. what bob said and how he said it, what was your take >> he was very clear he was decisive. he was clear he wasn't going to back down on this. i think what is so interesting is that he is making the business case for why disney is in the right here. i just have to point out some numbers that iger also cited in his commentary yesterday, notably that disney plans to invest $17 billion in disney world over the next ten years. he said the investments would create 13,000 new jobs and he also pointed out that disney is the largest taxpayer in central florida. so not only does iger truly believe disney has the law on its side when it comes to the special tax district at the center of the debate, but he

also knows they have the business argument on their side when it comes to disney's very important role in florida, not just now but over the long run meantime, we talked a bit about some of the other announcements regarding just tactical growth opportunities, new ride at disney world with this tron life cycle, moana going live action. what is happening with the inner workings of the ongoing content machine? >> the ongoing content machine is churning on you mentioned earlier there's a lot to talk about. perlmutter is out, no longer in his role at marvel comedies. moana, such a big hit in terms of the animated content. now they're figuring out how to expand it into different platforms, different places. i think there's been a lot of talk about the layout but it is a company continuing to invest in the brands that they think

will be most valuable over the long run that's been iger's strategy, create brands, exploit them across the fran tchise, figure u what is most res naponant with e consumers and figure out how they can react and spend throughout the ecosystem. >> i for one love moana. >> who doesn't love moana? aren't you curious how they're going to bring it to life? >> i am. i hope with all of the - >> and mermaid is just a few weeks away. >> yes >> my kids are big moana fans so i'm curious to see this one. >> we're more into buzz lightyear these days appreciate it, julia boorstin. real estate sales in the big apple plunging to start the year but one part of the market is still driving. we will break it all down next back in two minutes. have been all over the place, a

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i high rates leading to pain in the housing sector. new numbers from manhattan where real estate sales plunged another 38% in first quarter after 29% decline in the fourth. all-cash deals hit a record high with that said there are still parts of the real estate market seeing strength. let's get to diana olick with that this morning. >> i'm afraid it is not as sexy as manhattan real estate i'm talking industrial warehouse. there was concerned the hot market would cool due to increased supply and lower demand nationally industrial rents rose 6.9% year over year. the national vacancy rate was 2.9%, down ten basis points from january and this with nearly 686 million square feet under construction going locally, california's inland empire is where it is hottest where the largest sales volume nationwide. it accounted for 20% meanwhile, the midwest has some of the most affordable rents in

the u.s. miami and atlanta had the lowest vacancy rate in the south and boston saw the biggest rent growth let's look at some big industrial names and these are warehouse. prologueing has a strong national footprint it dropped last spring as interest rates started to rise but up 10% year-to-date. weaker earnings sent some stock into tail spin analyst called it oversold, recovering year-to-date down 1%. it is boosting with recent investments in spain and dubai first industrial based in chicago has gotten mixed reviews from analysts recently but the stock is up 9% year-to-date. just in general, they had been struggling because they're a low

interest rate. back to you guys >> still a ways to go until the next meeting diana, thanks. still ahead, markets pricing in a 42% chance of a hike in may, but amid the lay-off announcements, cost cuts, turmoil as the banks, could they end up pausing right here. we will discuss it with the ceo of rock creek in a moment. - psst! susan! with paycom, employees do their own payroll. - what's paycom? a magic payroll genie? - it's a payroll app. - payroll is way too complicated for the average person. - paycom guides them through it. missing or duplicate punches, pending expenses, unapproved pto, on and on. - why would employees wanna do all that? - this could be a stretch, but i think it's 'cause they wanna get paid correctly. i like getting paid correctly.

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former president donald trump is in new york city ahead of his historic appearance in a manhattan courtroom later today. contessa brewer is live from manhattan with the latest. hi, contessa. >> reporter: hi there, carl. okay this is the main entrance for criminal court we anticipate donald trump is actually going to go in through the side entrance over here, and police are restrengthicting all the traffic. they have barricades far beyond the courthouse behind me you can get a glimpse

of photographers and media from around the world gathering en masse, crowding several streets, documenting this moment in history now, if we turn here you can see a crowd waiting for the arrival of representative marjorie taylor greene. she has just arrived over here bob, to my left, i can see her on the street. this is one of the protests that has been well-publicized by the representative and this is just coming in now. you can see the crush of media around the representative for this protest i will say the police have intended to keep the trump supporters separated from those who are protesting the former president, but already today we saw scuffles come out between the anti and the pro side. here we come, coming right through here we also saw earlier congressman george santos arrive, and because of the crush of media around him -- there you see her

just going into the park right now and the trump supporters who have gathered along with, of course, many, many photographers and reporters to document her arrival. it is a bit of a circus out here right now, and what we saw was actually physical altercations between the two sets of demonstrators out here and then george santos trying to escape this crush of media running through the shrubbery as well it is just a side show out here, you guys in terms of what happens this afternoon, we think trump will leave midtown in about half an hour, come to lower manhattan, be processed inside the courthouse that will include fingerprinting but no mug shot, no dna. of course, all of the protesters out here who arrived for this demonstration are anticipated to stay here. they're hoping to catch a glimpse of the former president, though we're being told that may be unlikely because of the side

entrance as you can see here, we just have -- there are police nearby. they have been monitoring what is happening here, but at this point it just looks like every time that there is a notable figure who shows up there is a press of people around there and it gets the crowd really excited. we will keep an eye on this courthouse for the trump arrival for the arraignment that happens. we are anticipating having a camera in the hallway so that we will see him going into the courtroom, but at this point there will be no cameras we are told documenting the arraignment itself we are expecting a news conference this afternoon from the district attorney, alvin bragg, and then former president trump has schedule d his own nes conference later tonight from mar-a-lago we will keep our eye on all of this and bring you late-breaking details there. carl, sarah. >> contessa, just a wild, surreal scene in lower manhattan right now. thank you very much. contessa, we will check back in

with you we are here on wall street an hour into trading and stocks are headed south tried to have rally attempts earlier, especially after the jobs opening data. let's get to bob pisani who is looking at the sector break down because it is a picture, bob. >> it is we had five days being threatened here, industrials, materials, some of the cyclicals have been very weak this morning, particularly in the dow. let's look at the sectors today. defensive names have been a little better, health care, consumer staples energy, though particularly materials and industrials and the banks have started to weaken again. oil is up today yet they're taking profits in someof the oil stocks that had huge runs up on that opec news. i think the big story today is those cyclicals, industry, materials. boeing dropped noticeably mid morning. caterpillar noticeably dropped, that is weighing on the dow. names like freeport and mosaic

had been up. the regional banks are trading to the lower end of where they were last week got to keep an eye on that as well finally five up days the sentiment is remarkably poor yet the market is in an up trend. how do you reconcile that? the point is that the pain trade is to the upside and the important thing is we are moving here, sentiment poor with the market still higher here now, you have 8% from where we were three weeks ago let me point out the seasonals are strong now, the first quarter up 7%. when you get a strong first quarter like that the full year tends to be the upside look at this, carl, up 23 percent year on average when up 7% in first quarter and that's just what we had carl, back to you. >> bob pisani, we will talk in a bit. let's keep that conversation going, bring in the next guest who says the fed is unlikely to

ease as quickly as the markets seem to believe. let's bring in rock creek group ceo afsaneh mashayekhi beschloss. why do you think it is not going to happen this year? >> it is great to be with you today. i think i am reminded of what alan greenspan has told me and others in the past, which is nobody really knows the direction of inflation numbers so fed chairs and fed staff also are watching similar things as we are no question to jobs report today is a very big factor in what they're looking at and the numbers coming out later this week and next week will be important indicators, but i believe that you're not going to see the big recession that some people have been expecting so i'm in the camp that there will at this point at least, unless we have very big surprises at end of the week and on tuesday, a quarter percent hike in may.

>> i was going to say, you mentioned jolts. we had ism yesterday we had pce on friday we have bank of australia now. i guess if they do hike again, does the justification for it get naturally thinner? what could they possibly say would it be about some reflation in goods or certainly energy >> i think we are still seeing that unevenness in the labor market, right. we are seeing, for example, you know, you just talked about how many people the banks are laying off just as we speak we also are seeing service numbers still being relatively strong we are still seeing wage growth in certain sectors we saw oil prices spike yesterday. obviously it did not spook the market, but that could go on, not just because of opec rises but usa but also because china is increasing its consumption of energy so manufacturing, no question. i see numbers pointing to weaker

manufacturing and weaker input prices the other side is we are seeing this huge innovation going on in our economy with what is happening on open a.i. and what is happening in generative a.i. and in the sustainable areas where there's huge investments going in we are seeing that in the u.s. we are seeing that outside the u.s. >> so, afsaneh, given your view, how are you positions right now? where are you now? >> we are continuing to look at those because there's demand in those areas. i think on the s&p as we have

been following, the market is testing different levels you know, we opened the market today being stronger we obviously had the reaction to the jobs numbers this will continue in next couple of months we will have ups and downs we will have deposits leaving the smaller banks going into the larger banks, so this location will be with us. nonetheless, i think that the underlying part of the growth in the economy here and the fact that europe did not decline as much as we expected, the fact china is picking up a lot of the slack is going to be generally positive, sarah. >> i was going to say, glad you mentioned europe we have producer prices down five straight months you mentioned rebound in china, although a lot of that tourism appears to be geographically contained to the mainland for now. the argument for the rest of the

year is how the global economy has remained resilient >> absolutely right, and europe, pointing out places like spain and italy, right who would have expected with everything going on with the banking sector that they would -- they would be interesting spots in the markets right now? who would expect that places like the czech republic, you know, would be interesting places to invest in right now? so i think there are points of dislocation in this market and you just have to keep on looking for them >> i guess the pushback, afsaneh, is we just had some bank failures. >> absolutely. >> both here and rushed, you know, marriage over in switzerland and we are still seeing tightening. so they're breaking things and still tightening and it has changed the outlook. i agree we've seen a lot of resilience globally, but is the story changing before our eyes now because of what has happened in the past few weeks? >> so you're absolutely right.

i think we are looking very closely at the credit, credit officer's numbers, looking at the fed data coming out on credit there is tightening there in terms of credit, and i think that will continue, right, because regional banks are such a mainstay of our economy and no question they will continue to be impacted. we're not done as jamie dimon said earlier the point is while that is going on, the kind of destruction that you expected in the tech sector is not happening i think that's why i keep on going back to my theme on innovation because those things could be life changing, just like what we saw with the internet, what we saw with aws those could be changing the landscape in a big way, but we should look for surprises too just like in the beginning of march we did not expect, you know, what happened with silicon bank there could be other expectations that we don't have right now that could come into play, but let's not forget

credit suisse has been a problem child for a very, very long time it is just when markets are, you know, where they are today, problem children have to take responsibility eventually. it was not a big surprise >> no, as trust just ran out as layman said in his speech. afsaneh, thank you good to see you. afsaneh beschloss. > il ynkou >>stl ahead, we will check on with the ceo of papa john as shares fall 2% this morning. that's next.

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with concerns around the consumer still on the table, we are keeping our eye on restaurants. pizza delivery companies especially papa john's hosting its first in-person franchisee conference in three years today, announcing expansion of its international business joining us exclusively is papa

john's ceo rob lynch good to see you again. >> great to see you, sarah thanks for having me >> trying to figure out what happened to demand everybody ordered in pizza during the pandemic, the stocks shot way up, and coming out there are concerns what are right now >> we're seeing continued consumer demand for our products and for the industry obviously, things have changed since the pandemic but pizza is a product that's going to be around forever and has been an amazing staple of america's diet for a long time the pandemic, obviously, created tailwinds for the industry as consumers changed their behaviors and were working from home and staying home more often. we've launched a lot of innovation that's driving incremental demand for our product, we have three years comp sales growth in north america so we're bullish on the stuart. >> how about delivery in particular, how has that

behavior changed coming out of covid? >> we have been unique in our space. we've partnered with the technology that provides third-party aggregators. we integrated them into our system our delivery model is a composition of both our organic delivery as well as delivery through the marketplaces that companies like doordash and uber eats offer our technology platform has allowed us to continue to support strong demand for deliver. as the consumer sentiment changes and, you know, customers become a little more price sensitive, we would anticipate they would move away from the convenience of delivery to a certain extent to more carry-out. all in all, that shouldn't impact the total sales >> you know, rob, india gets talked about a lot as an interesting growth market, but this news you made regarding your partnership there and the long-term unit target, talk to me about that. what do you see there? >> well, papa john's has more white space globally than most

of our large global competitors. so, we operate in about 50 countries today, but we have great opportunities in markets like india, japan, australia, brazil, where we don't currently operate. india is a great market for us we have a great franchisee partner who's incredibly excited about going into that market and building over 600 restaurants over the next ten years, which is a big investment. and that shows the confidence that they have in our brand and in our ability to go in and penetrate these big white space markets. this is a franchisee who has built over 100 restaurants, operated in a wonderful way in the middle east, has opened up new markets for us before. we have a lot of confidence we'll be able to go in there and be successful. >> how do you balance that, trying to do an international expansion and invest right now at a time where the industry is looking to boost efficiencies and manage expenses? yesterday word is mcdonald's is

doing layoffs on that front. is that something you're looking at as well >> yeah. we believe we can do both. in fact, our scale creates productivity and efficiencies across our supply chains and our ability to procure ingredients and commodities, which obviously we've all been challenged by the increase in the inflation and those inputs into our products the more restaurants we build, the more we can buy, the more productive we can run our restaurants. >> but are you in a similar place where you've done layoffs? talk to me about what's happening on the labor front right now. >> no. i mean, we have not done layoffs. we have worked really hard in the pandemic. obviously, we're managing our budgets very closely we're making sure we're being as productive as we can in our company restaurants and our corporate offices. we're working with our franchisees to help them as well we just announced back-to-better papa john's is better

ingredients, better pizza brand, but we're going back to better in our operations. trying to make sure we're streamlining, leveraging technology to streamline our operations, be as efficient as possible and drive those restaurant ebitda during these challenging times. >> people who follow quick service are fascinated by this period where we're graduating into acceleration of unit growth, but there's all this conversation about using ai and chatbots and technology, and even innovation in floor plans in your real estate. i just wonder what you think the more interesting changes are going to be. >> you know, papa john's as has been on the forefront of technology we were the first brand to offer online offering for pizza. now that is ubiquitous with the industry over 80% of our orders come across digital channels. we focus on our e-commerce platform, we built a loyalty platform in the last three years has gone from 3 million to 12

million loyalty members. we collect all that data to help us make more informed decisions on how to best reach our customers and serve them the best we can. we're all about leaning in on technology the majority of our capital investment every year is up against technology platforms to make us more efficient but also to help us show up better with our customers. so, you know, ai is a part of that i mean, ordering capabilities that allow us to take orders, all of that stuff is something we're investing in to make us more efficient >> finally, rob, what do you say to investors wondering about some of the leadership changes over there lately? jeffrey smith resigned as chairman of the board. i know he was in there for a few years making some changes. you also lost your cfo, i believe, earlier this month or last month what are you telling your franchisees and investors? >> we're excited about the opportunities. i mean, i'm the kind of leader that believes change is an opportunity. jeff smith was a great part of this brand

he came in in a time when the brand was challenged he actually hired me and brought me in to help facilitate that turn-around. his departure -- >> i remember. we had that famous interview >> yeah. his departure is an indication of the health of our company and his confidence in the fact that we've turned things around we've had some great executives that helped us build this company and helped us turn around over the last three years. i'm excited about their futures and what they're going on to do. but it's an opportunity for us to bring in new talent with new ideas and build new capabilities that is going to help us accelerate our growth rate moving in. our franchisees, our executive team, we're all here celebrating the success we've had over the last four years and putting plans in place to exceed expectations moving forward. >> rob lynch, thanks for joining us today, from orlando appreciate it, from papa john's. as we look to close out the hour, let's go to dom chu with a look at what's moving. >> we are seeing relative outperformance in the nasdaq

100, so the larger cap of the nasdaq names that particular index flirting with almost unchanged at this point. relative outperformance. some of the bigger winners on the nasdaq 100, electric art, intel, align technology, amgen you can see they're up 1% to 2%. the laggards, the nasdaq 100, charter, siriusxm, liucid by the way, apple, keep an eye on that one, dueling headlines, piper sandler calls it a top team pick. we'll have more when the third hour of "squawk on the street" comes up after this break. did you ever stress about us having three kids? no, that was always part of the plan. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese! what if she wants to play golf?

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good tuesday morning i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. setting the agenda for us today, jpmorgan strategist warning it is the calm before the storm for stocks are they right we'll have newburgher with us. the plunge in nat gas and this recent revival in crude. hertz ceo with the push into evs and summer travel demand can they keep up meanwhile, another busy session to start the