openings >> and i think it's worth noting, as investors focus here on whether the fed's going to pause and what that next move or lack of a move is going to look like, we saw a pause from the bank of australia overnight, and now new zealand, the central bank there is in focus tonight as well. so, it sort of speaks to not only a u.s. environment, but a global environment that has been combatting this high inflation versus the possibility of recession, i suppose that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. "fast money" begins now. right now on "fast," wall street's reality check, from the fate and industrials is this market starting to wake up to the real risk of a recession? plus, nvidia's bold run, the stock up nearly 90%. is this now the short of a lifetime or can the stock keep defying gravity? and later, the bullish breakout. c 3 ai's jaw-dropping.

i'm melissa lee. we start off with the market finally waking up to the reality that a slowdown may, in fact, be coming groups tied closest to the economy taking a hit today industrials dropping more than 2%, nearly giving back all their gains over the past week energy stocks giving back recent gains. the s&p's biggest losers today include valero, sliding 8% marathon petroleum down more than 7%. and another rough day for financials the s&p regional bank etf sliding 2%, closing just a hair off its lowest level since the collapse of silicon valley bank. all of this as wall street heavy weights raise their own red flags to the economy jpmorga jpmorgan's ceo jamie dimon warning that the banking crisis is not over. barry sterling predicting on "squawk box" we are going into a serious recession. and b of a's top strategist saying market sentiment is now below its financial crisis lows.

so, are investors finally starting to pay attention to the warning soons around us? guy? >> if you look at today's market action, not necessarily. i mean, market showed some resilience today, i thought. it was lower, clearly, but given what's transpiring, not bad. with that said, i mean, the banks are important, we talk about the xlf, trading 31 1/2 or so and we mentioned this the last week, i think, you go back to february of 2020, it topped out around 31 before it cratered like everything else did, so, past resistance becomes support. we've tried this a couple times now. you get through that 31 level, 30 1/2, and then makes you wonder berkshire hathaway, mastercard, via, 40% that's worrisome and in terms of the energy stocks, paul talked about it last night he said, you probably don't want to be in refiners. he mentioned valero last night that probably contributed a little bit but he was right in terms of performance. so to a certain lens, i think

the figure is figuring it out, but in terms of the markets, no. >> can you believe that it will not infiltrate to the other parts of the economy or the stock market, it seems hard to believe. if you think there's a problem there, there's probably a problem on main street >> that's what we talked about yesterday, it scares me. i think there were things about today's market, the headline surface looked fine. gold moved 2% and having a breakout, all right, i'm leaving that last resistance behind that was resistance of all time, or it is actually 2058, but basically the resistance that we've seen the move in interest rates, we'll get to that and jim is going to have great thoughts, i think, there, but when i look at the semiconductors now, underperforming the s&p in the last eight days, that's what i'm looking at i'm looking for the underperformance and as long as those were outperforming, i said markets were going higher. i don't like gold. i don't like the data over the

last couple days they really have put in people's face, we talked about yesterday's ism. today, that jolts number doesn't deserve the same kind of hyperbole, but we're down from, you know, 2 million jobs a couple months ago, now there's significant job contraction and jobs for people and things we're measuring. labor markets still strong but can you imagine if this job market wasn't strong and what the market would be doing? >> this morning, a stat was tweeted out from apollo talking about the q-1 performance of the s&p 500, 20 stacks gained $2 trillion the bottom 480 gained a couple hundred billion. when you think about that, you can define it as participation, however you want to do it. we've been in this position before we know that it doesn't particularly, you know, end that well, i mean, listen, people want to concentrate this stuff that they feel best about where, if you look at the large platform companies, they have the monopolies, great

management, they have lots of room to kind of weather the storm. they also have a lot of fat to cut, when you think about it from a cost standpoint and we are starting to see that and maybe that's why they've been rewarded look at the russell 2,000 closing down nearly 2% today and you talk about the cyclical areas, the exposure to financials, the exposure to main street, talk about on the other side, whenever this banking crisis is done, credit is going to be harder to come by. it's going to be more expensive. this is something we're going to start seeing in q-1 earnings and q-2 guidance from companies. they are going to start telling us this. the only thing, like, that sticks out like a sore thumb to me that is not screaming recession is kind of the vics at 19 this is what we've become accustomed to is just buy dips here and if you are buying, you're not buying dips here, you are buying the stocks that are up a whole heck of a lot and i just don't think that's a safe proposition. >> apple, microsoft alone are north of 13% in terms of waiting. so, that's why we're seeing the market look decent ahead of --

we have jobs report on friday, we're not going to be here >> quiet day >> quiet day >> volatile. >> we're ahead of banking earnings we're going to learn a whole lot in terms of what is going on, karen. >> right well, there's something that i thought was interesting today, you know, the last couple days between ism and some of the jolts number today, things that would seem like the economy is slowing down, right? but in the past, when we've seen anything that would show that, we get this fed put, or pause or whatever, and the market seems to think of that as the most important factor and rally on that and yet now, today, or -- that not -- doesn't seem to be the case i thought it was interesting, jamie dimon in his letter had a few things, of course, he had a picture -- there was a picture, read that for awhile and then looked at the text. and a couple things that were interesting, inflation, which he does not see as over, and talked about some of the continuing things that would be sort of supportive of higher inflation

so, he would disagree with barry, who, the fed has gone way too far. that, i thought, was sort of interesting. he really talked about the need for commercial -- i'm sorry, community and regional banks and how important they are to the economy and so if -- we talked about this a lot if they are going to be regulated more heavily, this is going to be bad. contraction of credit is going to be bad for the economy. so, i'm a little more pessimistic on the economy i don't know if that's good for the market or not. >> when you said the consumer is still in good shape -- >> consumer is in good shape >> he's said that for quarters now. even now if the consumer is in good shape, that's really good, they're not feeling the impact yet. >> getting back to the jobs data, if you have a job, the consumer is fine within certain scope, right? so, if you think about where we were from 2015 to 2019, there was 0.93 jobs per person that's where we were jolt stat out today, it's 1.6. though we pulled back from 2.0,

and this is a little inside baseball, but tells you how strong the labor market is and how resilient it still can be, or at least it can still give up a lot of jobs and not even be where we were in a period before we went into covid. >> health of the conconsumer, ie it consumer debt is $16.5 there cnbc.com had a thing today we're getting into unchartered territory in terms of where the consumer is now. maybe that's fine, maybe that's the kind of economy we have. but if credit gets tiger, people start losing their jobs and there's some fear that comes in. people stop spending on a dime we've seen it before so, when you have an economy that's 70% driven by people buying stuff, those people get scared, the economy slows down >> and it is amazing, you know, we're talking about this oncoming recession and there is an oncoming recession, two years, five years, it's going to happen, but what happened and guy, you use this term all the time, that the fed has kind of

alchemied these out of the normal business cycle. when you think about 2020 into 2021, our treasury, our white house, our, like, all the powers that be, they threw $5 trillion at a black swan event and kept things kind of -- all these conditions we're talking about, the consumer, why the balance sheet is in shape, because they were infused with cash businesses were infused with cash so they didn't lay people off. so, the idea that, like, some recession that's going to happen is some horrible thing is actually pretty natural. we talk about zombie companies, all the goofiness that we've seen in the private market and in the public markets. the private markets was highlighted by what we just saw with svb, but think about -- >> amc >> the list -- that is at the feet of the fed, guy, give you that one >> guy, alchemy -- >> it's an album >> dire straits. >> i know you guys are brothers in arms here >> oh, nice. nicely done. >> i just think that, like, so, bringing it back to the market is like, where we are with valuations here, it doesn't

really discount a recession. you look at the vics at 19 -- >> what would? >> look at this blackstone blackstone round trips and goes back to the mid 60s. we were talking about blackstone doing this at the same level, remember, when they put the gates up back in october well, here ist is, it's coming up it's the most well-defined downtrend ever you will see on a chart going back a year and a half from the all-time highs when i look at the kre making new lows, schwab that touched 50 today. if jamie is still talking about how basic little we are not out of the woods, there are more shoes to drop here and ultimately, that's the thing that's going to work itself into, like, i think, the major money center banks and just look at bank of america, it really does act very bad relative to, let's say, jp and some of the investment banks. so, i think we're going to learn a lot on april 14th, all these guys are reporting here, and i just can't consider a scenario where any of these ceos want to

be too optimistic about this future that we just don't know it's about, you know, i don't know, cloudy as it's been in three years. >> why should they be, right >> no upside >> free pass right now >> absolutely. >> just had a banking crisis >> every day, i look at first republic investor relations website. it looks like their earnings come out april 14th, but they haven't said so yet, which is fine, they don't really need to yet, but at some point they're going to have to tell us not even about their earnings, who cares, it's about, what is the balance sheet? how much do they have let to deposits, how much in the hole are they and what is their plan? >> the next guest is in the camp that the banking crisis is not over and could have severe economic implications. jim, great to have you with us we were just talking about first republic, and i thought this was very interesting, for those of you looking for a high interest rate deposit, listen up. you know, first republic, along with a lot of these other banks that might have seen deposit flight are now offering very

high rates to attract deposits, which tells me they are still seeing flight, they still need to replace the deposits that had left when you're talking about 4.95% on a liquid seven-month cd, that ain't bad. and that's what first republic is offering. what does that tell you? >> well, it tells me what you just said. that they are probably still having a deposit flight problem, but the bigger picture of what's been happening is, the deposit outflows from all thiesseese ba, it started around thanksgiving when rates went above 4% we're in a new world now we have mobile phones. we have 120 million mobile banking apps it's not hard for you to pick up your phone, transfer your savings from a 0 yielding account to a 4.5 money market account. it's the rational thing to do. we should expect that when the h-8 report, which shows banking numbers, come out week after week after week, that we will see deposit outflows why would people automatically

say, i want to watch "fast money" because i want stock tips, but i got $250,000 in a 0 yielding bank account, i'm not going to spend three minutes on my phone to rectify that situation to go to a 4.5% money market yield and as those deposits keep coming out, the banks are going to be impaired on their ability to continue to lend and that could hurt the economy >> basically, even if deposits go up or seem to stabilize, at the drop of a hat, they can, you know, leave just as quickly as they left during this banking crisis, and so, there really is no, i mean, in your view, is there a safety period where we can say, you know, oh, that was over, because it seems like you can't really put up gates on the world of mobile banking and prevent this from happening again. >> you don't want to put up gates. that would be the wrong answer to do is to put restrictions on your money or my money really, once the banks start offering deposit rates that are competitive with market rates, then you would say, there's no reason for me to reach into my pocket, pick up if imy phone and

move my money. then things would stabilize. other than pacific west, first republic, a couple of other banks that have been in the news they have raised their rates quite a bit, the vast, vast majority of banks are still offering deposits rays down around half a percent, if not with the big money center banks down somewhere near zero so, they're not offering anybody any kind of incentive to stay, other than a safety incentive, and once they've reset their password, they're going to start looking elsewhere. and a lot of them have in the last month >> jim, it's tim so, a lot of what you're talking about now, but certainly the things that have built in this conversation are about bond market volatility. guy talks about it all the time, we all do. you know, a 3% two-year to me is a 3,500 s&p. and i'm just curious your view on the moves we've seen over the last couple days, when we finally got kind of that devastating economic data that i think is probably got more behind it. >> yeah, you're right. you know, whether rates go up or

down is not nearly bullish or bearish for stocks it's why if we're going to get a 3% two-year note, because the economy is falling apart, or it's having a problem, that is not good enough, because typically, the worst time to own the stock market is when the fed starts cutting rates, because then they admit that there's a problem, they're trying to stop a recession, they're usually too late and they can't now, they're not cutting rates now, they're still talking about raising rates, but if we ever got to that position, it would be problem wills maic. bond market volatility is still very, very high right now. it's the opposite, i heard you guys talking about the 19 vices. the move index, which is the version of the vics in the bond market, is at 147, which is almost a two-standard deviation high that inside talk for, it's very high. and it is suggesting that the bond market is still somewhat unsure about what's going on and very chaotic unlike what you're seeing in the stock market >> jim, on a very first level, i read your notes. technology has rallied because

rates have gone lower. that's a knee jerk reaction. but people wake up to the understanding, wait a second, credit's going to be tighter, they are cyclical. and they're not going to be able to get access to capital the way they used to so, what is your sense about technology here? >> yeah, that's it technology, to use a fancy term, is a long duration asset meaning they're going to earn a lot of money in the future, not a lot of money now when rates go up, then that future money is worth less when rates go down, that future money is worth more. that's why they've been rallying, because rates have been going down. but if -- why are rates going down if they are going down because the economy is slowing, technology also needs people to buy their products, and if they're not going to be buying their products, doing less with their products because of a slowdown in the economy, they're going to have problems, as well. so, the knee jerk, you're right, is that lower rates, good for technology but why are we having those lower rates, that could wind up becoming a negative, too >> jim, always great to get your thoughts, thank you. >> thank you

>> jim bianco, bianco research if they're offering higher rates, banks, they're paying out more money to get deposits >> right so, they're paying out more money. that interest margin will be smaller for sure it's a question of, you know, it's -- for some banks, they have more than enough deposits and i would bet that a jpmorgan right now has more than enough deposits and it's sort of this value proposition, if you are a big company, you want to be able to have a banking relationship somewhere and it absolutely, we see, should be at a bank you thought you probably were in one ish if you were in svb, you weren't. so, i think there will be deposits for those biggest it's concerning, though, for the more than $250,000 depositive iter who is with a smaller bank, you -- it almost seems irresponsible if you are a small company cfo, i hate to say that -- >> that comes down to credit

standards. why were all of these companies that were private doing business with svb they were pushed there by a lot of their capital providers -- >> they had no credit. >> and they were given credit lines, you know, private debt. and so, that's the stuff that jp and some of the other large money centers wouldn't do. and so, it is interesting to me that, you know, jamie dimon -- >> they would do that. >> not really, but like, much worse terms. and that was the promise of the silicon valley bank. keep it here and we're going to be able to get a better look at what you guys are doing and be able to compete better than you would if you were to go to -- >> it doesn't necessarily go to a jpmorgan >> and there's a lot of private players moving in. but it just means that the cost of capital for a lot of these companies are going to be higher and their valuations are going to be lower and that's the thing that is seeping in, i think, into the public market, thus the small cap index that we just mentioned. coming up, an ai audit shares of c 3-ai falling what

the company had to say next. and indnvidia rising. should you embrace the chip? that's coming up when "fast that's coming up when "fast money" returnsd, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

welcome back to "fast

money. c3.ai plummeting more than 25% after a short seller alleged accounting missteps by the company. c 3 ai responding to the accusations. we're tracking this story. what's the latest? >> so, they're alleging that c3.ai is engaged in serious accounting and disclosure issues, and remember, the c3.ai has really been a darling of this ai movement, because there are so few names to get into it's down 26% today, it's still up more than 100% year to date here's what the company said in response to that report from the short seller it says the letter appears to be a highly creative and transparent attempt by a short seller to short the stock, public an inflammatory letter. without comment on the legality of stock ma anyone late nor the innuendo remreelt in the letter, we will note their allegation that c3.ai's financial

disclosures are somehow incoin cor -- it goes on to say the accounting disclosures and financial statement referenced in the letter will be reviewed by our audit firm which we have an unqualified opinion, and are complete and correct now, melissa, the long statement, but to break it down, it has been a difficult company to raise, some analysts might argue, because it switched from the subscription-based model to consumption-based model s so, you do have analysts asking, what's a pilot program, how do you count your customers also on the last earnings call, you know, the ceo, who has been a fixture in enterprise so software, he was asked how they are using generative ai. the honest answer was, we haven't figured out how to monetize that yet, we haven't put a price on it, but a potential very large market there. so, not exactly proving out that model, and in this environment,

we should note, as well, when you see a stock that has more than doubled in just a few months, it is ripe for short sellers. we'll see how this all shakes out. but like you said, now 26% on the session. >> other software companies use this consumption-based model, so, how does their accounting differ in -- i mean, one of the main facets of the letter and accusation is the ballooning receivables. and i'm wondering how that stacks up to other companies that have this same sort of consumption-based model. >> right, so, if you take a snowflake, right, which is kind of a poster child of the consumption-based model, these have been consumption-based models for years, so, investors were able to figure out how to do year over year comparison c3.ai switched at a really tough moment, not just for itself, but for tech companies in general, when people were having trouble reading these things, so they switched in the middle of sort of a new environment, and more recessionary forces that were slowing down consumption or

subscriptions, however you measured it. so, that's what made it difficult and different from other models it just made this switch pretty suddenly that sort of gave the financials, but there whereabout good year over year comparisons, to put it simply >> all right, thank you. dan, what do you make of this whole -- the letter states that it is short the stock. >> yeah, listen, the first response is always blame the short sellers for doing something. again, i think guy has some views on this, i think we all do oftentimes, a lot of these short reports end up uncovering some truth here and the problem that ai has is that, yes, it is up 150% or something off of no good reason, off of mania that's existing somewhere else, it's become a little bit of a meme stock if you look at their gap, expected earnings, they are not expected to be profitable for years, you know what i mean? at the end of the day, it is probably easy hunting for some of these sorts of names, if you can find this sort of stuff, but

i read through the report, i have no -- i'm not a forensic accountant, i have noedy, but this is the sort of thing, where there's smoke there's fire >> this is a poster child for a long duration stock. >> you start doing, going downstream, saying, who benefits from this? i don't think it's coincidental that a name like google's rallied since dan started talking about buying google and selling microsoft. some of the more developed companies that have bigger moats stand to win here. and it's not coincidental that nvidia may give up the ghost, that this ai montization thing might be further away. >> we did extend an invitation to tom of c3.ai to come on we didn't hear back. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> semi-short. invideoya's run has been massive this year. but has the chip rip come too

far too fast the traders lay out their positions, next. plus, checking out of china. are we due for a rebound the details ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

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after the close, the company proposing to pay $9 billion to settle claims that its talc products caused cancer what do you make of this treasury yield move lower? >> it's incredible two-year yields, 5.1%, what are they now, 3.8. 130 basis points tim talked about it, the move index, we've been mentioning this for so long, that's not a healthy bond market. this is the largest economy in the world. the bonds, in my opinion, so, what do you make of it i think the earlier points we were talking about, other banks were on the wrong side so, these bond moves are no good in my opinion. >> it's one thing to say that the fed is not going to hike in may. and, you know, if you look at what fed fund futures and we've now talked about santelli with a really great, you know, segment we did a couple weeks ago, saying fed fund futures are not gospel they are -- they are, though, the market settings and they have 11 bits to where it peaked,

and they have 70 bips of cutting. so, again, i get back to what the market was doing today one of the other things that was most shocking to me was looking at the home builders down 3% on a day when rates are collapsing you know, again, money for nothing. you would think this would be -- yes, i did that. and it won't why i'm talking about housing, but i got there and i -- but it was the components of the xhb, it's not just looking at those, it's looking at train, it's looking at masco -- >> whirlpool >> these things are getting destroyed. and industrial companies are getting destroyed. resources got destroyed today. >> it's worth noting, guy, you just mentioned the two-year that was above 5% about a month ago it's come in now below 4%, and you just said to jim that, with a, you know, two-year down here, you're thinking of 3500 s&p. the s&p has not made a new high from that period in early february so, there seems to be a little bit of entrepreneur ration, you think lower yields, it's better for the longer duration assets that are driving the

performance, but the s&p is still below its february highs here and maybe that has to do with the concentration of the banks and the way they've sold off since then i guess my point is that i would suspect volatility in the bond market is going to work its way into that vics. coming up, investors selling out of china tech. the move and the options pitch next. but first, nvidia's run is unmatched in the nasdaq. shares up 90% this year, but the ads inthtrerthk is one comes too far, too fast. the semi-short, next yes! hon! the weathertech's here. ♪ weathertech is the ultimate protection for your vehicle. laser-measured floorliners... no drill mudflaps... cargoliner... bumpstep... seat protector... and cupfone. ♪ what about my car? weathertech. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on

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trinet serves small and medium sized businesses... so they can do more of what matters. benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. welcome back to "fast money. traders have been bracing for a dip in nvidia. paul said to short nvidia, go long oxy no too many bulls to be found on this desk. 70% on analysts on the street are bullish, in fact the average price target, though, curiously, just over 275 a share. that's about a buck from where we are right now so, they're not seeing that much upside here. dan actually sent a chart around earlier showing that the stock was about 100 bucks above its 200-day moving average this is a hard one, though you can make the case that it's a short, because it's run up, the valuation, we're entering a

period where things are going to slow down. but it seems they keep going higher you are caught in this >> so, look, at 236, i shorted nvidia a month ago and i said, this is crazy. and then suddenly -- it was really driven by ai. it was driven by this rally in ai that they were given, we know it's software, it's the ecosystem, and then we had silicon valley bank, and i think this is a dynamic that i think added to the megacap tech rally. i -- look, i'm not saying i can't go back there and, in fact, you know, when you put a tight spot on a name like that, which i think you have to, it's a better short now than it was at 236 >> our next guest says nvidia deserves a premium valuation, but maybe not as much as it has right now. joining us now, "fast money" friend gene munster. gene, great to have with you us. is the only reason to be short the stock the valuation or are there other fundamental reasons to be short?

>> mel, it's really all about valuation. and tim just framed it in some of that, some of the move that it's hard. it's surprisingly not as its peak it hit its peak back in november of 21 with the rest of nasdaq, so, it has been around 325, that's kind of where it's peaked at but so, this is a really tough position to be in, because we've seen this before, companies that fundamentally are doing all the right things i just want to quickly go through the right things they're doing. this is about as good as you get when it comes to a company that has a pole position in the i infrastructure of ai ai is going to have some hype initially, but ultimately, i think, there's going to be a ton of substance in the decade ahead. and it's not just the excitement around nvidia. tim hardware talked about their ecosystem, 400 ai models they give away to developers, but they have to develop on top of the nvidia hardware.

and so, that is the fly wheel. and it's hard to imagine that that fly wheel -- i would say this, is that there is a potential longer term dynamic, talking, you know, five-plus years down the road, in terms of how the architecture of these chips evolve and that's really all i can say right now. stay tuned on that front but i think as far as the next few years, the only reason to be negative on this is the valuation and you probably just going to find better places to get upside relative to nvidia. >> an environment, though, gene, where investors are seeking quote unquote safety, i'm taltalk ing safety, not just in the balance sheet, in terms of execution, management's ability to execute and deliver, in a world where we're seeing c3.ai, for instance, implode, basically, because of a short seller's accusations, and that's, you know, that had been one of, you know, the main ways to play this ai trend. do we -- do we see money

continue to go into nvidia i guess i'm trying to get at, is this a difficult short because of the other things around it at this point, even though you believe at this point it's overvalued >> i personally wouldn't short this, because the theme is hard to gauge the momentum of it, it's going so fast goldman sachs just put a report out on march 25th on the topic, it's got a three-week shelf life at the speed that things are changing that is something that i don't want to get in front of on the short side and i would just say this, there are other great places of safety that participate in the upside relative to ai i think that's microsoft and google nvidia is up 92% this year microsoft is up 29%. google is up 21% that doesn't tell the whole story, but i think these are also exceptionally well-run companies and i would argue that google probably has the best case for being an infrastructure on the software and services side company related to ai and so, i think they're just, at

this point, there are just better places to be. it's not a short, but just spend your time looking at other companies that haven't had as big a move but will participate in the theme >> gene, thank you >> thank you >> would you short this, dan >> it's funny, i am. >> oh. >> i'm doing it through options. just mention this, so, i defined my risk and tim said he liked the short at 236, he likes it better at 274. if you look at april expiration, that's nearly three weeks from here, the asset money put, the 275, slightly in the money, you risk about 3.5% of the stock price to break even between now and then and if you think that the nasdaq is going to come in in the not so distant future, it's going to be nvidia, it's going to be tesla, it's going to be microsoft, some of the stocks that have massively outperformed they are going to lead to the downside i'm looking for risk/reward plays. that means there are ways to define your risk and make some contrarian bets. i'll sail what gene just said,

he is 100% correct, it's a matter of time horizon this is a trade, i don't think this is a long-term fundamental short. >> yeah, agree i -- i bought some decently and it went up a fair amount, i thought, all right this is really too far too fast. that was so many points ago, so, i'm still long, but talking about where it peaked, whatever it was, 320, i don't know, the three-year interest rates at that time were well below 1%, and now we're at, you know, 380, was it 80 basis points so, it's getting close to that is kind of an amazing -- >> i think in terms of tactical, that's where we're going in this segment, i don't think it's the first -- i hear what you're saying, dan, it whats the most to fall. i think the high quality stuff will take a couple -- it's going to take a little bit of time and then it's going to underperform to the downside. what you saw on a day like today, if you are hedging yourself with etfs, like the qqq, they help you for awhile until they don't help up at all.

i think nvidia, it's such high quality, there's nothing broken about this company, but it's a tactical short and you have to be careful >> interesting, i mean, just in terms of the quarter they reported you i think on february 22nd, the quarter was fine wasn't great, but they told a great story and that got the stock from 210 to where we are currently. you are buying a story here, because some of the things -- data center was decelerating, gaming not great, margins contracted year over year. are you willing to pay close to 19 times now revenue, i think last i looked, 45 times next year's earnings? that's an expensive -- and it's still a sixly call semiconductor name at the end of the day i think. >> still to come, as elon musk dangles the idea of twitter 2.0, which includes digital banking, he is still seemingly settling scores with his critics. dan is in the dog house with musk, we'll tell you why. but what is hibend this move higher in the name and should

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has seen outflows of 12% despite these outflows, ali baba shares getting a nice bounce here the china tech giant surging more than 14% year to date has anybody here been looking at baba lately? >> no. >> no. >> still no, okay. >> looking at the range trade, i mean, what this has been is it's been trading up, and guy's brought this up recently, the fact is that they did this possible spin-off dynamic for unlocking value. and it's kind of a laugh when you consider the value they destroyed. and i'm somebody that spent a lot of time investing in names like that, and i have a long position in baba, not something changing my life, but it's something -- i don't see enough here to add to that position after it being, you know, destruction from 300 down to 80. >> yeah, the spin-off means that maybe beijing is off its back. >> maybe but you remember, we talked about this, ryan cohen announced his stake in ali baba, we said,

nobody rings the bell except ryan cohen's announcement just did. this was an $80 stock not trading well in this announcement, so -- that gave it a bit of a lifeline, but i don't think -- i think tim is saying this, as well. i don't think the stock is out of the woods yet >> karen, you were once in baba. got out of it. >> yeah. >> any temptation here >> no. a few things the underlying issue of what's china going to do, the rhetoric seems good, but it could just as easily change. and the other thing, the mental anguish to be in this again and have it turn again -- >> yeah. >> you know, i don't need to make it back where i lost it >> right, right. psychological aspect to trading, as well, which we don't always talk about >> we are in a pretty red hot economic war with china right now and if you own u.s. stocks, you have a lot of exposure to china right now. if you think about what they just did to some of their biggest companies that are also listed here over the last couple of years, it doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense if you want to be exposed to their 1.5 billion, you know, rising middle class, that sort

of thing, you probably have it through small play national. >> here are the fundamentals, really quick we just told the whole story that everybody knows on sentiment, corporate government risk, what not, china will reaccelerate i think it's going to be north of 5.6%. ali baba trades at 14 times. sum of the parts, it is cheap. the e-commerce story is not the most exciting part of this story, kind of like with amazon. it's worth owning if you can get your hands around all those things and it will outperform if the dollar continues to weaken. let's dig in on the china large cap etf. one options trader thinks the fund is heading higher mike khouw's got the action. mike >> yeah, so, despite the concerns that everybody was just talking about in china, the flow on balance in fxi was bullish today. >> an example of one of the bullish bets we saw, the purchase of 6,000 of the june 30-35 call spreads buyer paid $1.04 for those basically, you're looking at a

four to one payoff if it gets up 19% by june expiration 35 bucks, which is the target they have here, is still up 35% discount to the june 21 highs, so, i think this is sort of a risk mitigated way to make a bull ish bet. >> all right, thank you, mike khouw. and for more options action, tune into the full show, not this friday, the friday after, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, suspending accounts for april fools' jokes, elon musk has been busy. but is he focused on the wrong things what it all means. much more "fast money" ahead with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support.

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welcome back to "fast money. don't believe everything you read on the internet especially on april fools' day dan took to twitter on saturday tofu play a little prank he changed his name and quote tweeted a musk tweet from january, where the tesla ceo called dan a doofus. he tweeted, just kidding, dan has one of the best heads of

hair in media. and just like that, dan's twitter account was slapped with a permanent suspension for breaking the company's rules so, dan created a new account. dan nathan rr, which i'm sure will be shut down momentarily. reached 0 out to the social media site support desk, saying i tweeted ed an april fools jo why was my account suspended did you hear anything, dan >> ah, yeah, and i spelled speech wrong on the twitter, because i don't pay for blue and i can't edit my tweets there >> maybe it was the hair comment. >> it's pretty fantastic you saw it all the time, and thank you. but here's the deal, okay? he bought it, he broke it, he owns it, it's worth much less than he paid for it when paid $44 billion in october, i think they just marked it down to $20 billion. he can do whatever he wants to i've been on twitter since march 20 11. we don't punch down like some

people do on this platform, we don't spread misinformation, that sort of thing, and so, i just kind of find it interesting, there was a tweet back in november of 2022 on the 28th where elon musk said, this is a battle for the future of civilization he's talking about free speech here he bought this in the notion of free speech, but if you can't make an april fools joke on his platform, it just seems kind of silly. especially a platform -- it's not a political comment, but right now, one of the first things he did back in november is reinstated former president trump. president trump used this platform to spread misinformation about an election that he lost, he used the platform to incite a deadly attack on our nation's capitol, and that gentleman gets reinstated marjorie taylor greene gets reinstated in november so, it seems kind of odd to me and listen, it cease -- he can do whatever he wants >> well, now he's got one other account. now the numbers look even better and probably suspend this one,

and you'll create another one. >> this is really important. "the new york times" did an op to go to blue. they don't have a check mark here, and it's kind of interesting that all of this happened on april fools' where they were changing this thing. we know when they try to do this, this is going to be a big mess if you lose people who have big followings and they are just not engaging with it anymore, all the other people who have six followers are just not going to be there, either and then you lose the advertisers and this thing is just kaput >> it's clear that elon musk and dan are not going anywhere hand in hand. >> i love what so, they're not romeo and juliet. >> they are not. >> feels like a skateaway, to me >> is this a dire straits -- >> yeah. >> great songs >> kind of acting like a free speech karen a little bit, you know what i mean >> that's not a dire straits song >> no, but it could be >> okay. that's news, i guess >> so, who benefits? if it all goes down the toilet, as dan is saying, this is sort of an example of how it's going down the toilet, him alienating

people and -- >> this was the story after he did all theed a v eadvertisers t >> where did they go >> well, they're going to meta >> hopefully they're going to meta and google and youtube and -- >> yeah. >> tiktok. >> well, the check mark is something that i think gave credibility and certainly gave some sense of confidence in what you're getting from certain people and what -- so, look, twitter is a medium, i think, been wildly valuable real-time news, especially for certain sectors, from the minute i've been on it. and it would be a shame if it no longer was a place and i think we all have a pretty decent barometer on picking through what's garbage and what's not if it is getting worse, it's not a good thing for anybody >> up next, final trades

i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this.

[kid plays drums] life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim? >> this is an environment for health care. and this is an environment for companies i think that are trading bottom of a very predictable range. pfizer, we talked about the investment in the pipeline pfe. >> karen >> yes i'm sticking with the one i had yesterday, the girl i brought yesterday, which started friday afternoon, which the qqq short,

i guess in dan's honor going to stick with it a little more >> a theme developing here >> i swapped out a qqq into svi, that's killing me. >> mel, it's not just wall street talking about gold, it's not just main street gold is being talked about on every street. my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you. mad money starts now. hey, i'm cramer. darn banks. here they go again