losses that set the stock up slightly higher. the doj is charge a rising star in the tech world to convince jpmorgan to buy her startup. wednesday, april 5th, 2023, and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in time square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at what's been happening with the futures at this hour. we're seeing redary rows markets one dow across the board with the dow down by 200 points. this morning the futures for the dow off by 72 points

s&p futures down by 10 and the nasdaq by 25 you're going to see the pressure that has continued the 2 year down at 2.883%. well below the 4%. 10-year down i don't know what you would say that's leading to it. >> job openings yesterday showing a bit of a slowdown. if you equate the 2-year to where short rates are for your the fed, what are we saying, they're going to go to 5, 5 1/2. it's way far away. >> who blinks first, you mean? >> it's a global marketplace, and, you know, there's funding needs and auctions there's a lot that goes on

but there's definitely a miss. either the market is dead wrong or the fed, they would just -- they might be just as wrong about this as they were about transitory the great thing is they may know nothing but they're never in doubt. >> the one thing this tells you is the credibility issues they're having right now. >> let's talk about it monetary policy is moving, quote, somewhat further to restrictive territory this year with the fed runlds rate moving above 5% she made the comment in a species to an nyu group last ni night. >> precisely how much higher the fed fund rate will need to go and for how long policy will need to remain restring active will depend on how much inflation and inflation expectations are moving down. >> midwester said she was

comfortable with the quarter rate hike in march midwest ter also pushing back that they will need to cut rates. we should mention she's not a voter this year. >> someone stabilized it but as was pointed out yesterday, every quarter point, the mark from all the inflation risks that the treasury supposedly still own, the markets get worse. >> can't they go to the discount window and get it back to par? >> i would i wouldn't be on the other end. the fed is. >> yeah. >> johnson & johnson, i made

sure to buy cornstarch i've got a thing for baby powder i've mentioned that the entire time i use a lot of it. i would never use the talc it's always been suspect there's a lot of ways you can -- something could be cause oh genic. they denied it and denied it and said no way, no way. now, $8.9 billion is a lot of money. i think they're not saying one way or the other whether it causes it. >> they're settling. >> yes $8.9 billion those who sued the company alleged that using the j&j talc causes cancer. they established a deal that would make payments over 25 years. the bankruptcy court and 75% of voting claim ain'ts must approve the settlement

j&j says it continues to believe. resolving litigation would resolve it and allow the business to focus on its mission. it's being taken positively. former president donald trump is back in florida after pleading not guilty to 34 felony counts in a new york court yesterday. trump spoke to supporters last night from mar-a-lago, and eamon javers joins us with the latest. good morning, eamon. >> good morning, becky it was quite the scene in new york yesterday had kochters flying overhead, demonstrators in the streets, and intense security in the courtroom as donald trump was charged with 34 accounts of false fig business records reerks laying payments to stormy daniels s and others this is the first time in american history that a former president has seen the inside of a courtroom as a defendant and

it came aka time when he's the front-runner for the presidential nomination in 2024. court documents laid out the tawdry details of the 2016 campaign in which then trump attorney michael cohen talked about paying hush money to three people who had embarrassing stories to tell about donald trump including the porn star stormy daniels he falsified records calling them legal payments to cohen, which was with pay off payments. that's a bread and butter-case for his office. >> we have a distinct and profound interest in new york state. this is the business capital of the world. we regularly do cases involving false business statements, but the bedrock, the basis for business integrity and well-functioning business

marketplace is true and accurate record-keeping that's the charge that's brought here. >> now, they rallied calling the case illegitimate. >> this case was brought only to interfere with the upcoming 2024 election and it should be dropped immediately. >> so what's next? is discovery then various moments will be made stating points in the case. the next hering is not expected until december, and that set a potentially dramatic election year trial that's something we haven't seen back over to you. >> i guess the slow roll on this, at that point there's going to be a lot more activity in terms of where the presidential race stands at that point. >> yeah. i mean we'll be headingen into

election year the next time there's a hearing going into 2024 it's sort of astonishing timing to think it would take that long to get to a hearing here, and i think the key thing here for the da is he's going to have to explain to a jury and by extension if it's such an important case, why hasn't it been brought about before. we talk an case that goes back to 2016. he's going to have to explain to the jury why these falsified business records allegedly are so important that they need to be dealt with now. >> he's got to get the felony to a misdemeanor.

it's a little weird. my eyes are glazing over because for two weeks while the was in the works, everybody was talking about nothing but this i've heard it litigated for two weeks, how it's got to be affecting -- there's got to be an actual crime that raises it up from a misdemeanor felony i can't talk about this until december, eamon. i guess we have. to we don't have a choice, do we >> it's such a bizarre situation, joe we've never seen anything like it you would der, does this have any impact at all on his viability? >> does it make it better or is it disqualifying it's somewhere in between there. >> we have no idea there's a hard core group of

supporters who will never leash him and others who will peel off. we don't know the answer to that. >> we don't. we've got plenty of time to figure it out. bob ley has died after being stabbed in san francisco he's the former chief technology officer of square and chief officer starter of crypto startup. he was stabbed yesterday morning in the rincon hill neighborhood in downtown san francisco. police haven't made any arrests and are asking for anyone with information about the stabbing to call the department lee was only 43 years old. when we come back, we'll bring you some of the hardest tech markets later read hoffman will join us teigt the future of artificial inllence he's an early investor in technology you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc

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our next guest talks about discretionaries and a shallow

recession coming those are our squawk pick segment this morning joining us is the president and chief investment officer kevin, explain, first of all, why you think it's going to be a small low recession. how long do you think it lasts >> sure. i i'll start by saying if there's a silver lining, they'll be able to do what they wanted to. i think they may be done with this rate hike cycle, although, there's the potential for one more basis rate hike in may, in my opinion due to the massive amount of interest rate hikes that took place last year, it will help

with rebounding. it will prevent the economy from falling into a deeper prolonged recession that would have oi kurred on its own. of course there's the sector of health care, notably biotechnology. i believe they're going to drive this economy forward coming out of covid-19. >> kevin, fair to say, you don't believe the fed or loretta mester or anyone who says we're going to continue these hikes. it's going to take a truly long time before we tackle inflation. >> they have three tools one is the fed target rate t balance sheet, and the rhetoric. their rhetoric is in full press.

we've seen the impact of the rise in housing and banking. we're going to see that. also earnings growth is forecasted to fall 6.6% on a year-over-year basis during the first quarter. so i don't believe the fed can go much higher even though they want it. >> all right if we believe that, walk this out. one of the things you're keen on is broad time. do you want to explain. >> sure. i'll start with technology it provides the innovation that this economy needs now one company doesn't need it. i it's attractive. they'll have free cash flow on their balance sheets and often a low level on their balance sheet. if i move ahead to consumer

discretionary, our country is invested and fascinated with sports you can see behind me the uconn insignia on the wall my daughter is a graduate from uconn. >> don cotton graduates. >> one company that benefits significantly is dick's sporting goods. they continue to expand their online foot print to compliment the brick and mortar stores across the country their solid pc is below 11 then the health care, biotechnology, regeneron pharmaceuticals, they're a large tech company that provided very innovative treatment for serious

dise diseases,. they don't pay a dividend. attractively valued. i believe it's upwart not just this year but over the course of the next decade. >> if the fed chooses to keep hiking rates, then what? are all bets off >> that's my biggest concern right now is that they stay too aggressive if you look at thatmost believe it should be another 25, 50. if they go more than 25, yes, i think we have a more prolonged and deeper recession >> all right kevin, thank you very much you know, i think this is the big question in the markets. do you believe the fed or do you

not is the fed we've seen over the last decade or longer that's going to keep stepping in or does moral hazard come into the picture >> i don't think it costs anything to say it. >> no. that's what he said. they've got three tools. rhe rhetoric, the one they're implying right now if you doge follow through on it you don't lose >> they can always saying what do you do? >> right ewe need to get the market back in order. coming up on the other side of this, we're going to talk about the fintech startup ceo that was on the "forbes" uds 30 list now being charged with criminal fraud it's ooh remarkable story. thgoe im we're going to have a special edition of "squawk box" from 8:00 to 9:00

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now to a high-profile fraud case that's literally happening in frjt of us in real time the justice department charge with defrauding jpmorgan at $75 million. the 31-year-old accused of, quote, falsely a inflating numbers in a scheme to fraudulently induce jpmorgan to acquire the startup in 2021.

details couldn't be shared because of details she was arrested monday night at newark airport now faces four counts of fraud conspiracy carrying a maximum sentence of 30 for each person the ceo's attorney is denying it when you're going to buy a company and you do diligence on a kpaerngs unless everybody is lying, the accountants are lying and the accountants aren't doing

their work, there's a lot of people around a transaction of this size, a jd not to have any idea that the numbers aren't back to it. >> you go back to the fdi. >> i have great admiration of jp advisers unlek venture capitalists are making 100 bets knowing that most of them are going to go to zooerks i think when a big bank does something like this, they're not doing it that way. it's a different model >> it would not have been on jamie's radar. >> no 1rk 75 million dollar

deal. >> i'm trying to catch up on volter we're young, college kids. it really reminds me of vol tar is cha is basically worth nothing. >> for me, arrest her at the airport? >> i would am -- >> you could get a pretzel. >> i could hang out at the airport because of the food they offer. >> if you were headed to miami, it's a different story it's complicated. >> we need to know which terminal. >> right was it the international ter terminal >> right. >> coming up, how kevin mccarthy plans to meet with taiwan's

president. a lot of cinnabons, too, in the airport. we'll talk about wait means for chai in and u.s. relations a look at s&p 500's winners and losers right there check it out lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable, and secure riously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square the dow off by 55 points t s&p nasdaq off by 20 points, the s&p by about ten points. raising rates, that's where we are right now.

what do you think this annualized inflation rate is going to be this year at christmastime? >> tell me where energy is tell me where oil is. >> are you going to say 4. >> i was going to say 4. but tell me where energy is. >> let's say 2 is not the goal let's say 2 1/2 is not the goal 36789 is not the goal. until everyone sits around and says, oh, my god, we can't raise rates. >> you're not close to 2 you're not close to 3. >> the other thing is, my whole contention, you raise rated, you're making it more expensive than people who do the things that relieve the supply chain

issues startups, entre preneurial businesses they're telling us the demand sight is under control already unless that market's totally wrong. let's talk china a meeting would worsen u.s./china relations joining us now, asia, society policy institutess rorian good to see you. on a scale of one to ten circumstance this a big deeg that this shouldn't happen this is the same day that in covering the "wall street

journal," chinese regulators are already delaying mergers or the contention of policy war, tiktok stuff, putin and xi together, balloon gait is it going to make it worse than it deteriorating relationship >>le thanks so much for having me this morning. i totally agree with what you said they near a delicate state there are a lot of issues to talk about, it's tough to talk through any of the agenda items. >> you make the point repeatedly, though, that the

punishment cold be inflicted on taiwan in terms of this relationship that we have more so than what even happens in the united states. what does that look like as there -- could there be a blockade again? what does that look like to taiwan >> i think they've signaled they plan to repeat what happened when nancy pelosi visited last year they were shooting missiles over the water into territorial areas of japan that could happen after today's meeting. i think beijing is going to wait and see what the results of this are, what the craft messaging is, how it's handled in the united states and by the u.s.

government the economic impact here is i think less than. you look at the medial future and more about this longer term growing risk, ott shutting doubt communication. a massive trade does travel every day. >> does china want us to more clearly define what strategic ambiguity means or what would happen if they were to move on taiwan >> either. they would not like us to define what strategic ambiguity means or come to strategic clarity, which means the u.s. would signal in advance it would come to taiwan's aid through military means no matter what the

altercation between the two sides of the sfrat would be, i think beijing is relatively unhappy with the communications at the time and it's a signal of the growing ties on the other hand i see this as a row response to the chinese pressure on taiwan >> it's odd because they didn't like her visit and they're certainly not pleased with this. it's almost bipartisan almost. democrats and republicans both have -- you know at least have not done in terms of what they wanted the biden administration wouldn't want anyone meeting with them. it makes it more difficult if

blinken and -- i don't know whether president biden ever renews some of the planned meetings with president xi at this point. >> it's up in the air. the secretary's trip to beijing has unfolded as the chinese balloon flew over the united states, creating a lot of intelligence in the relationship but i also think that congress as you pointed out really feels how much ale it was created by the taiwan relations act that passed in 1979 joe biden is the first to have voted for that so congress feels like it has a special relationship with taiwan and it's reflective of that fact. >> rory daniels of the asia society policy institute

thank you. good to have you on. when we come back, big moves in the new york real estate market robert frank has that story next. and later joejoe, a reminde you can follow podcasts on your favorite pod ach and you can listen any time. we'll be right back.

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welcome back, everyone equities down. nasdaq down by 21. s&p futures off by about 8 the judge has won a seat on the wisconsin supreme court giving liberals their first majority in 15 years she defeated it. it will give the courts a lil it majority several are expected to come before the bench inclining abonch kales in the meantime brandon johnson was elected major. he's 's a progressive securities trading, hotels, and

airlines the vote was seen as a rejection of tough on politics johnson will take office in may. >> to the latest read, robert frank joins us with more here it is robert >> reporter: we had falling sales, falling pricings, but higher cash. in sales overall plunging by 30%. the average apartment cost $1.95 million. sellers want to return to the 2021 prices and inventory rose a little by. buyers still don't have a lot of

choice in manhattan. 57% of ma 57% of manhattan sales in the first quarter was cash that's a record. nearly 5 million dollars in sales were done with all cash, creating a namer there are many really think buyers they've been pulling money out of stock and dwleet using for. that march sales were stronger than jan ice andrew. >> robert, it feels like bad news i was hoping you were going to come up with good news for us, a little bit >> it's definitely food news for

buye buyer. not good news for brokers in the overall market. >> when we come back nch the c o'o. it's been the first time since the a reminder you can watch and-to us live any time on this clss ins be kris. it

walmart holding steady on its sales forecast for the first quarter ahead of today's investor day meeting the company reiterating its outlook for both if first quarter and the rest of the year in february walmart says it

expects adjusted earnings of $1.35 to $1.30 for the first month of the year. >> barnes & noble is opening stores again the company which has about 600 locations plans to open 30, marking the first time since 2009 the company has expanded its store's presence joining us with the turnaround is the barnes & noble e. this is very good positive news. help us understand what's happening here for so long you've been competing with the likes of amazon and we've seen smaller bookstores close across the cyer i think we've got better

bookstores in place. we've turned around the storrs, moving furniture about and giving each store whatever they thought they should do depending on its location. secondly, people are reading a lot more the wind is in our sales. times tough. >> and do you think that sales rise that you saw during the pandemic, is that -- is that something you think is a long-term sustainable situation or was that a, you know, transition area or, you know, situation just like so much of the rest of the economy? >> well, you know, you get moments when everybody starts reading again, it happened most famously when everybody bought "harry potter. we had it with "50 shades of gray," when the book clubs were hugely popular and each time if you were a good bookseller, your sales went up and you held them.

that's the key, is barnes & noble a good bookseller again? it is focusing on books, making bookstores that people want to come into. we're getting much, much better at that. that seems to me it is going to be sustainable certainly january 2023 was amazing. and starting april, having had february and march the start of the year it is a strength that lasted well beyond the sort of conventional end of the pandemic >> that do you think about digital books and also audio books, which, of course, have become a phenomenon unto themselves and how does that impact your business >> we sell both of those that helps but primarily we sell real books and the key for us is people are engaging with literature, with thoughts, with ideas, with all of these enjoyments that books can bring. if they're doing that through listening to them, reading them electronically or watching them, when they're made into a movie, that will bring you into a bookstore. when you're in a bookstore, you're going to buy more books

from us. >> you have a new membership program? how does that work >> we are extending it so we made the paid membership a better thing, extended the discount online and increased it, it was 10%, we're now adding a stamp and save mechanic which gives us 5% on top of that and we have a free program, which allows us to frankly to communicate and sell books properly and reward the loyalty of that vast majority of our customers who weren't within the paid membership program. we got two we got up and down, launched in half the stores at the moment. the next in a couple of -- >> what do you make of the reverse happening, by the way, at amazon, which is to say amazon opened as you know a number of brick and mortar stores throughout the country and they are effectively retreating >> well, that's happy for us that the big gorilla in the room is amazon.

and having them in our world, that is physical bookstores, was uncomfortable. in fact, we have taken quite a few of their stores, which we reopened in our own -- redone them, and what i make of it is that bookstores have to be effectively run as independent bookstores do. and you can do that as a chain if you get complete freedom to each store and that's what we're doing at barnes & noble. any difficulty of creating stores, personality and individuality that is so frankly challenging for a large corporate organization to grapple with, and amazon is a very large and corporate organization, brilliant logistics that perhaps is not a good book physical retailer. >> do you think there is enough competition in the book arena? >> there should be more. it is very sad that there's one large bookseller left in the united states. barnes & noble is one large bookseller left in the united

kingdom. the independents do a fantastic job. i wish there was more of them. they're not doing bradley. they're prospering and their numbers are increasing, but not enough and we rely on this -- this very large corporate retailer in the middle and the question is are we doing a good job or not we're certainly aspiring to do so. >> what do you make, this is just a -- maybe a personal question, how do you think about this, i know a number of people who like to go to local bookstores to support their local bookstore and the truth is they're paying more oftentimes for those books because those books at a local bookstore are oftentimes not being sold at a competitive price, they're being sold at the retail price on the cover of the book as opposed to, you know, a 20% off or oftentimes 40% or 50% off that you or amazon might be able to sell, what do you do >> at barnes & noble we discount, we do as you say, we have of the membership program that gives more discounts. oddly enough i have another hat, i have my own independent

bookstore in the uk in london. i don't discount at all there. i think it's about the effectiveness of the independent retailer to really engage with its local customer base and combine that loyalty and book prices are relatively low. and the price that the independent sells, the undiscounted price, is a fair one. 20 bucks is 15 bucks is 30 bucks on the back of the book, you pay that, you get a much bigger discount from barnes & noble and from amazon, but the independent gives something else and that's why they're doing so well >> and then finally, what do you think of the -- this big merger in the publishing arena that is not happening and what may happen in the future what you want to see happen? i'm talking about si simon & shuster. >> i mean, slightly odd for somebody who runs a large company, i answered first question saying it would be better if we had more players in the market and more competition and i think that's true in publishing as well the thing about publishing,

though, is that the creativity that allows good publishing to happen, that allows editors to -- that special magic that happens with authors can happen in a small publisher as equally as a large one over my career, yes, the big guys have gotten very, very much bigger as they bought up others, but all the time there are new publishers coming through. i think at the end of the day i look at it relatively relaxed manner what we do need is not to allow a monopoly to occur, either in the world of book selling or the world of publishing and that looks far from being likely for the foreseeable future >> james, want to thank you. as an author, i wrote for you. my wife is a literary agent, we root for you we root for the book business. thank you. appreciate it. coming up, cleveland said loretta mester said rates need

to go higher. and an early investor in ai talks about the future of artificial intelligence. futures now up 37 points on e th dow. not a great session yesterday. nasdaq down about 13 "squawk box" will be right back. and i remember kind of thinking like, "oh my gosh, i think we could be sisters." because i think we looked... yes. right. yeah. and i don't think at that time- i think you're the one to tell me that we had the same birthday. yes. it's really unbelievable when you think about it, because it's been, like, really over 20 years that you were my mother and father's banker, you became my banker and now fran is in her third year of college and you're her banker. it's so unbelievable because i'm just 20 years old. [laughing] when you stay at a vrbo you always get the whole home not part of it

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good morning futures are falling this morning as investors assess the state of the global economy and the impact of inflation and interest rate hikes on the market the future of ai, linkedin co-founder and early investor in open ai reed hoffman will join us for a special interview and exxonmobil ceo telling investors its low carbon business has the potential to generate hundreds of billions of dollars. we'll hear from the company's president in charge of that business as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now.

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. live at the nasdaq market site in times square. got some red on the screen this morning in terms of the u.s. equity futures now looks like we're going to open down four points on the s&p, that points on the dow, and the nasdaq off by about nine points. treasuries, though, show you where things stand ten-year, 3.368. the debate continues about what the fed should do. and we're going to talk a little bit more about that issue. >> former president donald trump back in florida after pleading not guilty to 34 felony counts in a new york court yesterday. trump spoke to supporters last night from mar-a-lago and eamon

javers joins us with the latest. hello, eamon >> hello, joe. quite a scene in new york yesterday. what we saw were helicopters flying overhead, demonstrators in the streets, and this intense security surrounding the courtroom. former president donald trump was indicted yesterday he was charged with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records relating to payments to porn star stormy daniels and others dating as far back as the 2016 presidential campaign it was the first time in american history that a former president has seen the inside of a courtroom as a defendant and it came at a time he's the front-runner for the republican presidential nomination. now, court documents laid out the tawdry details of an episode from the 2016 campaign in which then trump attorney michael cohen said about paying hush money to three people who had embarrassing stories to tell about donald trump, including the former porn star stormy daniels. the manhattan d.a. said trump

falsified records related to those payments, falsely claiming that they were legal retainer payments to cohen in order to obscure their true purpose as payoff payments. that kind of business record fraud, he said, is a bread and butter case for his office >> we have a distinct and strong, i would say, profound independent interest in new york state. this is the business capital of the world. we regularly do cases involving false business statements. the bedrock, the basis for business integrity and a well functioning business marketplace is true and accurate record keeping. that's the charge of fraud here. >> now, the former president rallied his supporters upon his return to mar-a-lago in florida last night telling them the case is simply illegitimate >> as it turns out, virtually everybody that has looked at this case including rinos and even hard core democrats say there is no crime, and that it

should never have been brought >> so, what's next the first thing that will happen is discovery that's when the defense will get access to all the evidence against trump. and then various motions will be made debating points in the case the next hearing is not expected until december of 2023, setting up a trial, a dramatic election year trial of a presidential candidate in 2024. we have never seen anything like that, guys so, we'll have to see what the political and legal impact of all of this is >> and the polls will trickle in the pre for who the leading contender is for the republican nomination should be interesting whether we see it go up or down what was the last one? >> you wonder if you're desantis, if you're desantis and you're sort of the former president's chief rival here for the republican nomination, how do you play this he's been pretty vocal in support of trump on the legality of the case here

but do you start to separate yourself he had this sort of odd moment he said i don't know anything about paying hush money to porn stars and dropped that at the former president's doorstep. but then sort of supported him legally. it is this interesting dance that you're seeing of how close he wants to be to retain the support of trump's followers and how much distance he wants to put between himself and the former president to say, hey, look, i'm a different candidate. >> for -- i don't know what kind of republican i would call him, for any republicans, i don't want to characterize them, that wanted the former president to be out of the picture, and there are probably a lot as we know, i wonder what -- he's not out of the picture. i just don't know whether this makes it more likely or less likely, and definitely that last night, you probably watched it, i watched it because i saw the mypillow guy, he was there, did you see him? >> yeah, he was there, in mar-a-lago >> and kari lake was there

but i thought who wasn't there was kind of interesting. did you? did you notice that? former first lady, former first lady, nowhere to be seen first daughter, ivanka and jared, nowhere to be seen. as far as i -- >> it is interesting in politics, when there is an allegation of infidelity and an affair, joe, there is this tradition of spouses, political spouses being forced to -- or forcing themselves to sit next to the husband and defend him and say, you know, i've got his back, and that kind of thing. >> i know. i know >> it back fires because it looks look a hostage video, you know in this case, melania just didn't do it. >> i'm not just sitting at home baking cookies, the first lady once said. anyway, thank you, eamon javers. >> you bet.

let's get down to dom chu with a look at the morning's premarket movers. >> let's start off with the big legal settlement in the works right now involving healthcare products and pharmaceutical giant johnson & johnson. the company has agreed to pay $8.9 billion to try to settle all claims reported to the sale of talc-based baby powders which thousands of lawsuits alleged led to various health hazards, including cancer in some cases the settlement would need approval by a bankruptcy judge since the unit of j & j that is handling this is filing for bankruptcy itself. we'll get a check on the automakers, general motors and ford gm has overtaken ford as the second biggest seller of electric vehicles in america during the first quarter, gm sold about 20,670 evs compared to ford's 10,866 in the same period but both companies trail

industry leader tesla by a huge margin some estimates having tesla selling north of 161,000 during that period. tesla does not break out sales by reaching for the record that's the reason why. the automakers down fractionally in the premarket trade and we'll end with an upgrade of regional bank zions, caught up in the -- i guess maelstrom around silicon valley bank's failure. an outperform with $60 price target, trading at valuations not seen since the great financial crisis and it has a diversified enough franchise base to help it weather the downside, so zion shares up about 1.5%, helped along by the analyst upgrade. becky, back to you. >> the stock is down 56% over the last year period on that dom, that's not something you see very often people kind of wandering back in, putting their toe back in and saying this is the stock they're upgrading at the moment for any of the regionals. >> and it is not just that if you look at it from a valuation perspective, couldn't just be zions, there are a lot

of regional banks caught up in that huge downside valuation move maybe not just zions, other banks may look attractive if you compare it to those great financial crisis gfc valuations. >> thank you >> you got it. president loretta messer said she sees monetary policy moving in her words somewhat further into restrictive territory this year with the fed funds rate moving above 5% >> precisely how much higher the fed funds rate will need to go from here and for how long policy will need to remain restrictive will depend on how much inflation and inflation expectations are moving down >> let's look at treasury yields this morning you can see the ten-year, 3.36 on the ten-year. the two-year, back below 4% again. joining us now, kamal sri kamal.

do you believe loretta mester at this point, and what is the motivation do you think she really believes that that is the case? is there some massaging of the markets by loretta mester or how do you take her comments and do you think that is where we go? >> good morning, joe first of all, i think various fed governors, presidents keep making statements contradicting each other i'm opposed to their speaking publicly all it does is cause confusion now, going to specifically what she said last night, she may want to go a lot higher. it may well be her preference, but i don't think she's going to get it we have already had one credit event in the form of the banking crisis i think within the next three to four months i think we'll have another credit event coming from somewhere. and the fed is going to buckle

and is going to start cutting rates before the end of the year she's not going to get the interest rates going substantially higher than 5% why do i say that? you mentioned that the beginning of discussion look at the two-year and the ten-year. the both of them have fallen and the two-year was about 5%, just about a month ago, and is has now fallen below 4%. second, the yield curve are invasion peaked at minus 110 basis points a month ago now it is just half that, minus 55 the curve typically steepens and is still staying negative when it expects a recovery from a recession. what the yield curve is saying is expect the recession to begin in the second half of 2023 look for the recovery to be somewhere close to the mid-2024

point. lastly, the dxy, the dollar index has fallen sharply in the last few days. it has gone down quite a bit over the past month. and that is also saying to me that the dollar holders do not believe that the fed can tighten much so, a lot of recent why the fed is going to remain relatively easy no matter what may be the hawkish messages they give in public >> do you think -- we talked about jamie dimon a lot yesterday and he made some comments that to me seemed like they were mutually exclusive for the other. so he thinks we're far from over in terms of this -- what he calls a crisis in the financial sector but still thinks inflation is going to remain stubborn and that we're probably headed to higher rates than people think i would think that if the crisis

continues, not only does the fed take a lighter touch, but it also does some of the tightening for the fed in terms of credit contractions i don't really see how that is logical, that thinking, that thought process. >> i would agree with you rather than with jamie dimon on that. i think the banking crisis is disinflationary. if you have one more credit event, whatever that may be, that is going to push inflation expectations down even further and i agree with you as well, it is going to do the job partly that the fed has to do but here is where i will agree with him, i would agree with him in terms of saying the banking crisis is not over, that lots of regional banks which have mismatched maturities and we just found one of them come out of the wood work, maybe two, that others which are going to come out eventually. >> sri, i don't disagree with you. i think the regional banks, i hate to say it, are going to be

in trouble because of the commercial real estate piece of all of this, which we discussed a little bit yesterday the question i is to go back to where we were, joe and becky and i were talking about what we think the real rate of inflation should be, could be, even if you decide it shouldn't be 2%, if you think it should be 2.5%, maybe 3%, maybe you think it should be 3.5%, we're still so far away from those numbers, it is sort of hard to understand how you get there otherwise. >> i agree with you. there is no contest. we are not going to get to 2% anytime soon when i said disinflationary, let's take the fed's favorite index, the pce index which came out at 5% last week year on year i might see that coming to about 3.5% to 4% that's what i call disinflationary rather than deflationary, andrew and i don't think you're going to get much beyond that. if you really get to 2% or lower, you're talking about a

very sharp recession situation much worse than 2008 >> but you get to 3.5% organically, naturally, or you need the help of the fed to get to those type of numbers >> you need credit event to get to that, the fed is not able to achieve it, achieve 3.5% they won't achieve it for the next 18 months. >> but it sounds like you answered the question about what the fed is going to continue to do because the fed is going to look at this and say, we have to keep going if we're going to even get to 3.5%. >> the fed may want to keep going if it wants to have -- wants the inflation as its target but you have some other issue with pension funds, with other banks, which have problems, then inflation becomes secondary to so-called saving the system, quote, unquote that's why i think the fed will pivot.

>> okay. >> appreciate it always great to talk to you. coming up on the other side of this, exxonmobil's ceo telling investors its low carbon business has the potential to generate hundreds of billions of dollars and how performance traditional oil and gas business, we're going to hear from the president and talking technicals with katie stockton coming right back your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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its low carbon business could outperform its traditional oil and gas businesses, potentially generating hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue. joining us right now is dan ammann, the president of exxonmobil's low carbon solutions unit it is good to see you. >> good morning, becky thanks for having me. >> let's talk this through, first of all i think often this kind of goes over people's heads, exactly what low carbon solutions, what the business is, how it works. why don't you give us a brief primer. >> sure, so we're doing two things we are helping accelerate the world's path to net zero and if you look at the emissions the world produces today, about 35 billion metric tons of co2 equivalent annually. 80% of that comes from heavy

industry, power generation, industrial processes, commercial transportation and those are the sectors that we're focused on helping decarbonize. these are often viewed as the hard to decarbonize sectors, but we have a lot of expertise inside of exxonmobil we can bring to bear to help decarbonize these industries we're doing the same thing inside of our own operations, reducing carbon intensity of exxonmobil operations and we're taking all of that know how and helping other heavy industry decarbonize. >> dan, a lot of our viewers know you, but for those who don't, you're the former president of gm and former ceo of cruise, the autonomous car company. when you just mentioned the hard to get to areas, i guess that's kind of your connection and where your expertise comes in as well >> yeah, if you look at the light vehicle transportation industry which gets a lot of headlines and it is really important that the automotive industry is decarbonizing there as well, the sectors that we're focused on here today, they're contributing eight times more emissions than the light vehicle

transportation industry. that's why it is so important we get after those emissions as well in terms of heavy industry, power generation, commercial transportation, and so on. it is just such a big contributor to emissions and therefore really needs to be addressed. >> what practical solutions exist for that how does it really work if you're trying to get after that market in particular >> yeah, so just to take an example, we announced a project yesterday with one of the big industrial gas companies, where we're going to be capturing one of their production sites, 2.2 million tons a year of co2, so we're capturing that at their site, we'll be compressing it, transporting it on a pipeline and then injecting that into permanent g geologic storage underground, and that will avoid the co2 emissions from going into the atmosphere. 2.2 million tons of co2. to give you a sense for what that represents, that's the equivalent of taking about

700,000 gas-powered cars and converting those to evs. and that's about the same number of evs that were sold in the united states last year. so here we are with one project, one industrial site, having the same emissions benefit or emissions reduction benefit as all of the evs sold in the united states last year. it gives you a sense for just the sort of order of magnitude of the opportunity to decarbonize the industrial processes, and we have several more projects like that in the backlog, we announced another one a few months ago, and it is really exciting to see the momentum building in the pipeline of business opportunities that we have coming toward this year. we have major projects under way on the production of low carbon hydrogen, and that can be used as a fuel to replace natural gas. also an industrial process and that also has the potential to reduce millions and millions of tons of co2 and greenhouse gas emissions. a lot of opportunity and a lot

to be done in these big industrial processes, a lot of this is happening behind the scenes, but it is usually beneficial in terms of the emissions reductions and getting your heavy industry and the world on the path to net zero. >> you and darren woods, the ceo of exxonmobil, both talked about how the i.r.a., the inflation reduction act, is really part of the reason there are far more opportunities for this in the united states than in other areas of the world right now i just wonder how much of the profitability of the business or even the existence of the business relies on government programs or tax incentives to make sure that people actually go ahead with this >> the way we look at that, you're in the long run, the only way the world is going to get on the path to net zero is for the energy transition to be economically viable. that's one of the underlying principles that we have. and for our business to be successful, the same needs to be true ultimately what we need to see happen is for true end market demand and consumer willingness

to play for a carbon product, that's where we need to end up it is equally important we get the flywheel going and that's where well structured policy like the inflation reduction act comes into play. what that does is make some of the projects economically viable or more economically viable, opens up the funnel of opportunities that we're able to pursue, and really get the flywheel going so that the market can begin to ultimately take over and support that as we get closer and closer to net zero. >> and one thing to say that wealthy countries can ask their people to willingly pay a little bit more to try to eventually get the net zero what do you tell countries where the quality of life isn't even close and you tell them, you can't have the lifestyle we have because of carbon concerns or whatever you're talking about. how do you tell people in sub-saharan africa they need to pay a little bit more for

noneconomically feasible energy because the rest of the world is demanding it you tell them they have to do without? >> great question. that's why it is so important that we get going, get the flywheel moving here one thing we're focused on, joe, is bringing down the cost of abatement to make these processes more and more affordable so that we can expand beyond the sort of obvious, you know, high concentration emissions starting points. and so this is going to be a long journey this is a journey that is going to unfold over decades it took us decades to get into this position and it is going to take us decades to work our way out of it. >> can you even come close to offsetting what china and india are doing? it seems like you're trying to bail out the row boat and it has holes in it everywhere for every time you go down, you say, 700,000 cars or something, china and india are building more coal plants >> yeah, well, we got to get moving and that's the most important thing we can do is to

get started, to demonstrate these projects can actually work, that they are actually economically viable, and that is what will get this flywheel moving and it is the opposition we need to lead the way on this, and that's why you're seeing us announce these real world projects i would say the whole energy transition space has been full of a lot of press releases, a lot of partnerships, a lot of mous what we're focused on at exxonmobil is actually getting real projects under way into execution, real steel on the ground and demonstrating these major industrial scale emission projects really do work. >> sounds like carbon offsets for everything else exxon does, dan. still doing very noble work, producing hydro carbons that the world runs on. >> exxon's made a -- there is real money there. >> hopefully putting real money into drilling and production still too. >> yeah. >> go ahead. >> thank you >> go ahead, dan go ahead >> don't stop.

>> thanks, becky no, very much. like having safe reliable affordable energy for the world is critically important right now. and that's what the corporation is working on and at the same time helping to decarbonize our own internal operations and now helping third party companies decarbonize theirs and we have a lot of momentum in this, very excited about the opportunity. but to your point, joe, it is going to be a long journey, but we're starting here and we're getting moving >> dan, thank you very much. dan ammann. coming up, linkedin co-founder and open ai investor reed hoffman joins us to talk chatgpt and much more. could get a little bit theoretical. >> i worry a little bit about how smart these machines might eventually be. "squawk box" will be right back. time now for today's aflac trivia question. for the first quarter, tesla delivered 422,875 vehicles how many vehicles did they lir the same period a year ago

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now, the answer to today's aflac trivia question. for the first quarter, tesla

delivered 422,875 vehicles how many vehicles did they deliver for the same period a year ago the answer, 310,048. the first quarter of 2023 was a 36% increase >> welcome back to "squawk." fedex news hitting the wires now. over to frank holland who has the details. frank? >> looking at fedex stock now moving up about a percent and a half after the company made a major announcement about its drive transformation program and the future of its business fedex announcing just moments ago it will consolidate its business into three units. express, ground and freight into one company, starting in june of 2024 this is a major shift for fedex. they currently operate a separate unit, currently the ground unit operates entirely with outside contractors that buy the roots for the idea here that sources tell me it is to create cost cutting synergies within the business.

fedex says it will increase its dividend by 10%. the company making a big change to its executive compensation adding a return on invested capital metric and shifting away from capex as a percent of revenue as a metric when it comes to executive compensation. i want to explain this more clearly. the business itself, until june 24th, will be split up so john smith, the current ceo of fedex ground, he'll run express. richard smith, he'll take over airline and air operations the current ceo of fedex corporation will remain in the role, and next year in june, everything will reorganize when it comes to titles, but the ceo will remain the ceo of the entire corporation and the business breaking news from fedex on their drive transformation program. they will reorganize the business and instead of having three separate units, express, signature air delivery, freight, and also ground, which handles

e-commerce, will all become one company, they're going to increase the dividend by 10% and change their executive compensation that executive compensation part is something a lot of analysts talked about, that will give investors and possibly more confidence in the stock and more confidence in the way it is run. looking at fedex shares now, up a percent and a half back over to you. >> how does that differ in terms of organizationally from the way u.p.s. operates? >> well, it is quite different u.p.s. operates just as one company, carol cthome is the ceo over the entire company. they operate as three separate operating units, express operates with fedex employees. ground is a separate company with its own ceo, operates with outside contractors, those contractors buy routes and operate as they see fit. and their freight business, which is a trucking business, that operates separately with its own separate ceo >> okay. frank, appreciate the news thank you. >> thank you. when we come back, president

biden saying it remains to be seen whether ai is dangerous yesterday at a meeting focused on technology. we're going to talk to linkedin's co-founder reid hoffman on the safety of artificial intelligence, what it all anmes and where it is going. and katie stockton on what she's seeing in the charts and the key technical levels stay tuned you're watching "squawk.

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welcome back to "squawk box. president biden meeting with science and technology advisers at the white house yesterday about the risk and opportunity of artificial intelligence this comes after calls from elon musk and andrew yang and steve wozniak and others to put a six-month pause on the further development of ai. joining us right now is reid hoffman, co-founder of linkedin and early investor in open ai, co-founder of ai startup inflection, wrote a book titled "impromptu" co-authored with gpt 4. it is a fascinating read reid, great to see you this morning. a million questions about this let's start with the most recent news in terms of those who are calling for some kind of moratorium, temporary halt or something else to the development of this technology

what do you make of that >> well, i think there is a bunch of different parts that respond. i think a bunch of it is well intentioned. well intentioned is the question of there is a bunch of different ways that ai can play out and we should be attentive to obviously protecting against the downside and as well as the amazing upsides. i think some is less well intentioned, so ai slow down so i can speed up this is one of the things where it is overall i think broadly a mistake in effort because i think everything we have seen so far in the last few years of development is the best ways to get safety is through larger scale models they actually train to align better with human interests. and so the call to slow down is actually in fact a -- is less -- less safe than actually in fact what they're proposing. >> can you explain what seems like a split or rift between elon musk, who is now quite publicly out there as one of the

folks asking for this temporary halt and sam altman, of course, who founded open ai with him i think there is a lot of fascination trying to understand how that happened and what is behind all of that >> so, i think they're both very well intentioned folks i do think that part of the thing that i think, you know, elon tends to have -- i must build it with my own hands, you look at what amazing stuff he's done with spacex and tesla, and it is only great if i do it, and i think sam is more of the, hey, let's get a bunch of people involved in this, let's have a distributed set of governance and power and control, like, he's got a safety counsel with the open ai side and a bunch of other things and i think that kind of, like, what the control and how it is driven as i think probably at its root, and obviously, you know, in this kind of divergence of opinion i'm obviously much more on the path that open ai has done, how do we get other

deciders and other people, you know, and other kind of governance in the mix as part of what is very important about the issues as we develop this critical technology. >> one of the big questions really for the world of content, i think, is how people are going to get compensated on the web, for so very long, content providers didn't get compensated, but could monetize what they were doing through search because you could actually get people to come back to your site and could maybe offer subscription or advertising or the like. with something like chatgpt, it is a -- at the moment, it is a one-way operation. and so the question is there a licensing fee that you think needs to go on top of being able to train off of this material? i often think of the idea that i can go write a book and i could maybe buy ten books, read those books, pay whatever those books cost, go to the library and get them, but somebody paid for those books once and i could use

that information in my book and i could never owe them anything more than what i paid to see the book the first time. but this would be done on a massive scale, and what the business models should be for that >> well, i think the business models and artificial intelligence are still very tbd. open ai has amazing things like chatgpt and the api structure and i think it is to work out. part of what open ai's whole mission has been for the decade that it has been operating is how do you provide high quality services and catalyze to, you know, other developer ecosystems that also have a lot of safety and alignment? and that's part of that joint mission which is -- which is what makes it so important and the deal with microsoftis that microsoft buys into that that's part of the reason why they work together business model, i think every three months, six months, we'll see some new interesting

innovation and it is hard to predict too early. >> how far are we off from using the technology to get involved in real life, we'll call them financial transactions, which is to say right now the technology can write things but and you could say, hey, write me an itinerary for the vacation or the business trip that i'm going to go on, but at some point, that itinerary is going turn into something different, not just write me the itinerary, you say plan the trip, go book the airplane. get the taxi get the hotel, you know. all of the component parts and permutations, but at that point, then there is actually a lot of things on the line in terms of money and economics and control and everything else. >> and i think we already see the lens into the future with a chatgpt ai part of what the api does is say you want to buy something with shopify, you want to, you know,

plan a trip, you know, and your trip planner, whichever one you have, and that's part of the reason why they're doing this whole plug-in structure to enable that. you already see that coming. there has already been announced partners building it in, et cetera that's, like, small and, you know, weeks and months away as that develops, and i think the economics of it, just as you ask, look, i think it is tbd, open ai's mission is to make sure the ai is really good and they get this commercial returns, which microsoft is more focused on, you know, open ai is more focused on, how do you get beneficial ai technology, those will be the drumbeats by which the technology will evolve >> reid, as a big thinker, i can understand the nearterm caution about our kids and i don't know, deepfakes and fake news, all that stuff, just bear with me,

singularity, things like that, when machines know much more than we can ever hope to know, how far off is that? and how dangerous would that be just to the species? i'm not talking about just in the next year or two or whatever, do you think that eventually down the road we need to be very wary of machines that could actually supplant us on this planet or in the universe >> yeah. so, the thing that always people get wrong is you say, well, there is zero percent chance of that and you go no, and they're, like, oh, my god, the robots are coming if i tell you you're going to drive home from work today and there is above zero percent chance you're going to die on the road, you're, like, okay, and then from above zero to, oh, my god, it is above zero and it is humanity, it is above zero and humanity with bots >> you don't think that's a real

possibility anytime soon, i guess. >> no. not anytime soon and what's more, like when we have seen this so far, it is nowhere close to that. the whole reason i wrote the book impromptu is if you listen to the general discourse, it is all dictated around the oh, my god, the robots are coming for your jobs, coming for your information sources and democracy or maybe they're even coming for you >> yes. >> it is, like, actually in fact, actually in fact the robots are coming to help you. it is augmentation intelligence. >> biotech is going to help us too, but we rushed head long into that and you can imagine, think if covid was much worse, think if it was -- we need to think about these things before we just try to beat russia and china and take all the guardrails off i don't know >> but, actually, but we already have guide rails people like open ai, other folks have been working intensely on safety for over a decade they have -- microsoft has hundreds of people dedicated to

safety like, it is not, like, there is zero guardrails there already. >> reid, the only thing i would say is that people who have big investments in ai think we shouldn't stop people who don't or who have pulled out of those investments think we should slow down a little bit you think that's a case of people talking or just putting your money where your mouth is if you believe it and you're invested in it >> i hope that i'm always kind of like investing in the elevation of humanity and kind of what are the good things coming, part of the reason why i founded inflection with the former co-founder of deep mind as we thought companion ai would be super interesting and i don't want to do anything. i pass on lots of investments, they have a bad elevation of humanity characteristic over the decades. so, from my speaking entirely for myself and my partnership with graylock, we're 100% of what we believe and that's part of the reason we invest in ai safety and i helped various stanford

and the institute in london and other folks to work on a very broad basis to making sure that's safe. >> reid hoffman, thank you for joining us this morning. helping us through this. i think this is perhaps going to be the topic for, i don't know, maybe a decade, maybe more maybe we'll be the topic we'll be talking about with other chatgpts instead of ourselves. >> the machines might be talking to each other. >> we'll see we'll see. reid, thank you, again when we come back, we're going to talk chca wtenilsith katie stockton chatgpt, by the way, and look at charts and you'll start to see that we're coming right back. a new way to transform our agency. strategy to execution. oh, looks my laces have come undone. a business card? yes, for ey. tech expertise? $2.5 billion invested. impressive. okay, you've convinced me, i'm back.

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my next guest has been watching key technical levels in the market and here to talk signals, katie, a cnbc contributor rea we are at 4100 on the s&p you've been sort of positioned bearishly for a while. are we missing something by following your advice or are you going to be right in the end, do you think? >> you know, it's been a range band market really overall i think that's where a lot of the frustration comes from for

me and for many of us investing in the equity market here. we've had short-term up swings and down swings that have been pretty notable, including the latest up swing. it definitely has surprised me in terms of the magnitude but we don't have the evidence that we're out of the bear market cycle. the good news is that we're closer to that so for the s&p 500, the level we're watching is about 4155 now. that is a very key resistance level on the chart we track something called the cloud model. if we were to see a good couple of weekly closes above that level, that would effectively reverse the downtrend that began recall last year for the s&p 500. so that would be a big deal in terms of levels. and there's a couple of other things that we have on our radar that could suggest that we're shift shifting here, one of which is the vix, the volatility index. another key level, it's not terribly far away at this time

if we were to see the vix take that out, that would reflect a shift in market sentiment and that would be something that could also be perceived as bullish as well. >> so a weak vix could actually end up being bullish instead of us looking for that washout back up in the mid 30s. have you moved any support levels on the s&p, have you moved any of those up? is that something you do as we stay above certain levels for a period of time >> yeah, the levels are definitely dynamic in that some have become evident as things progressed for the s&p 500, the major support does remain around that 3505 level and we still really cannot rule that out as long as this bear market cycle is in tact i don't think we're out of the woods as of yet. in the intrim there is support at the september lows, which were tested successfully in march. it made it evident that that's a

key level as well, not as important as the 3505 but definitely something that if we were to see a breakdown below that level, that would increase down side risk i would make a point about this latest relief rally that we've seen from the equity market, that it has been associated with improved market breadth, but that improvement is now such that the sort of creates a proving ground we have seen a advanced decline line and those haven't proven to advance from their down trends yet. >> i've seen an article written that a lot of the gains have been in on a couple of the big name stocks in certain averages but you point out maybe the breadth has been a little better that could be another 15% down side that would be painful down to

3500 how about bitcoin, does that say anything about other risk assets and is that in better shape? >> i don't know if i can call it in better shape. they both have challenges in terms of resistance. we did see bitcoin clear the threshold. it is not in the clear either. it is poised to pull back in our opinion. we think it more related to the breakdown in the bank sector as opposed to this rotation back into risk assets more broadly. while it's an encouraging development, it's not something that is a sign for bitcoin >> we have to go yields higher on the 10 year and 2 years? >> we're still looking for neutral from yields for much of this year. it could help us see a transition in equities >> thank you appreciate it.

>> coming up, we'll talk about the stalemate in washington over 'ltading wel lk to former house majority leader eric cantor next and the adp report crossing in the next hour. you don't want to go anywhere.

. good morning the adp employment report is on the way. and consolidating operations and hiking dividends, moving the stock higher this morning. and lawmakers want to chat with disney ceo bob iger and other media tech giants about china. how important is the china market to the magic kingdom? the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with beck

beck and andrew ross sorkin. still kind of digesting yesterday. we paired yesterday's losses going into the close but it did -- it was down more than 200 and it was not about tighter rates. in fact, it was about growth concerns and recession concerns and fewer job openings maybe that we're finally starting to see on some cracks in the employment picture we'll get a much better idea of that in a really compelling one-hour version of "squawk box" on friday between 8 and 9. maybe the stock traders get -- they're going to have a good friday because they're off and we're going to have a good friday, too. >> because we're on. >> we're going to do jobs number and paint easter eggs. >> there it is there it is. we got a special little thing

drawn up for that. you know, what are you doing at 8:00 on friday you're doing nothing probably. so tune in, please and let's check out thele yields real quickly it was notable yesterday if you had to figure out why the dow was down, you wouldn't think it was because of higher yields. we had the ten-year all the way down it was below that yesterday. it was 330 at one point and the two-year cracked under 4% definitively and you can see down today 3.81. you can probably tie some of that into the comments that we heard from cleveland fed president loretta nester she sees monetary policy moving into stricter territory but the fed funds rate moving about 5% she said she was comfortable with the quarter-rate in march because they managed risks in

the banking sector >> johnson & johnson playing thousands who sued the company that their talc powder caused cancers. and fedex say they go will consolidate operations by june of next year and will reduce cost by 2025 and it will hike its dividend by 10%. fedex shares up 3.2% >> and let's listen. >> the government has gone to the floor with the accelerator the fed has their foot on the

brake to the floor you can't be on the accelerator and brake at the same time, something explodes i think you have to be careful today. i think there are going to be some time bombs that are going to go off. >> joining us with more on the markets, eric cantor, now vice chairman and managing director do you think they're time bombs just awaiting? >> you know, i do think barry is right that you've got this sort of contradictory policy unfolding in washington where on the fiscal side congress and the white house have had the throttle down for many years now. and you've got a federal reserve who as we've seen in the last year has continued to try and pull it back so i agree that there could be some negative consequences but, you know, i think the real challenge right now is trying to make sure we don't make things worse and, as you know, andrew, there is a resort of important

day that is upcoming, maybe june, july, august called the debt ceiling and i do know that if you take a look at the objective indicators in the market right now, people are getting a little jittery about what that means. >> here's the thing. it feels like we've seen this movie over and over again. it the same movie. it has the same ending, the same climax, we all get crazy and worried the whole world will fall off its axis and at the last second something magic al happens. you think that's not necessarily in the cards >> let me tell you this. as you may recall back when this really became an issue, 2011, the republicans had just come into the majority. i sat down for months with then vice president biden to try and work out some agreement between the white house and house republicans and there was a real desire on the part of then president obama to try and say we need a fiscal deal, do

something about spending he talked about the entitlements you juxtapose that and refusing to engage in discussion with kevin mccarthy >> you think that could be a different movie this time? >> i do. look at the credit default swaps and where they are right now they peaked in march i took a look at it and they were about the same level on the one-year treasury as they were in august, maybe late july of 2011, same level a couple weeks ahead of that date i think the markets are taking notice of the fact that there could be some added drama. now look, i'm an optimist. i think it does ultimately get done >> layer on top of it this, the battle over inflation at the same time that we're worried

increasingly about growth and maybe more importantly even stability. so what's more important if you're the fed right now and you're watching this -- and how much are you supposed to think about what's happening in washington >> you know, it always strikes me being this side of the table and not being on the government side because i see it most our clients really try not to look at what's going on in washington they want to conduct their business we're in the business of m & a you talk all morning about the complexity and uncertainty of monetary policy. as you know, the financing markets are the lubricants for getting m & a deals done excu execution is harder. maybe washington does and maybe it doesn't they some it does. if i were the federal reserve,

is it more important to have an existential stability than it is it to have growth? i think we all want stability for sure but we want to get back to growth which means certainty. >> republicans took entitlements off the table, too so speaker not going to talk about that you saw -- how many votes were there, 15 or 16? so he's got divisions in his own party that he's dealing with and he's got freedom caucus guide. could they hold him hostage to not doing a clean deal or if he said okay, i'm going to do a clean deal with the president, forget it, we will talk about this stuff later or can they force him to continue to say to president biden you got to come to the table, we're not going to give you this? >> i think the latter because that's the position that kevin has taken is that he continues to say to biden, sit down, let's talk about this, he's put out there recently this notion that maybe we inject some things that

aren't necessarily directly related to fiscal matters. he talked about permitting >> like manchin. >> i think there are areas the two sides can great. it will be a bipartisan vote it has to be a bipartisan vote in the senate. and i do think in the house just given, as you say, the real difference this time versus where we were in 2011 is the size of the majority you know, kevin's got five votes right now. we had 20 some we picked up 63 seats back then. he picked up i think it was 11 this time. it was a very, very slim margin that doesn't give you a lot of room and frankly just the nature of human beings -- >> he couldn't say okay, mr. president, you're right, let's do a clean race, i'm going to give you a clean race >> i don't think he's going to do that. >> he can't. and biden, you know biden, he

loves this >> at the end it goes back to andrew's question. i don't think that the white house or the president of the united states -- >> you do get to the point of you don't negotiate for people who are taking you hostage with things like that it gets into this crazy thing, especially if you're talking about five votes >> so what will happen, becky, ultimately the senate will act first. even though constitutionally the vehicle has to originate in the house but there will be a shell vehicle over there, the senate will use, the senate will act first and go leave town and leave it up to the house >> can i ask you a stability question you guys doesn'n't loan money yourselves but how hard is it to get access to capital and by the

way what i think is nervousness around big banks and it probably the shadow banks >> right, right. there is money out there for good deals and good assets for sure it it's more expensive. i share your concern about the question around banks. if you look at it just by definition, banks are eight or nine times levered you had this mismatch, you had these assets on the books that were matched with the short-term deposit levered and then look at what happened. so i do think that there is a concern out there and that's why we say we do have access to alternative financing sources for our clients. you called it the shadow banking system, they're playing an outsize role and there's a lot of powder ut out there that wans

to deploy but it more expensive. but you have to get the bid-ask spread to come in line there are a lot of things very complex. just in the markets and geo ryntesnglly, we are in a very, ve ierti and complex time >> eric tanner, thank you, sir >> when we come back, steve le liesman will join us dr. scholl's massaging gel insoles have patented gel waves that absorb shock to hard-working muscles and joints, for all-day energy.

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that's today the march adp employment report is out let get to steve liesman with the numbers. >> good morning. 145,000. a bit of a miss there. the market was looking for 210 with the good sectors doing 70,000 february was revised up by 19,000, closer to the els report let look at the numbers. 70,000 on goods, 75,000 on services you can see the non-farm pay roll estimates is a bit higher in any event, this is probably still too hot for the fed, which we'd like to see jobs down near at least the growth of the population, which in estimates is 100,000 or less this would have been stronger and now is definitely a step

down from prior strength in the job market pretty good distribution by business size, 100,000 for small business, 33,000 for medium size business and 10,000 by large small business still hiring quite a bit right there. and it looks like that sort of post-pandemic hiring trend we've seen with leisure and hospitality and construction up 53,000 professional business services, that's when people are thinking when there are job losses, it could come in that category with sort of the medium to higher wage people losing their jobs and businesses holding on to those lower wage worker so hard to find. and then one thing i'm paying a lot of attention to because this data is very robust in terms of the size of the pool they're looking at, job stayers, 6.9%, that's a comedown from the prior month and job changers 14.2%

also down. joe, i've been looking at how good this is and this is the new report that comes from august and the average miss is 100,000 but most of that comes from the big blowout in january that everybody missed 4 of the 7 reports since they revised it have been within 50,000 so it's pretty close it estimating the private sector, not total job growth we're paying attention to it still but especially that wage data because they have a very large pool of people that they draw from to get that data, more than the government has. >> they keep trying, adp, new methodology and stuff. it's better than the standard deviation is, what, about half of what it used to be you would say, steve >> well, actually with the january miss it's double what it used to be let me break this down into a couple of categories here.

>> the new methodology is even worse? >> if you count that big january miss -- let me break it down, joe. they were within plus or minus 50,000 before the pandemic during the pandemic, nobody was able to forecast the job growth. we're still sort of in that post-pandemic time of not being able to forecast it but then they changed the methodology in the middle or in the back side of the pandemic here beginning in august and it's been bad if you include that one bad month that they had, remember the january -- >> throw that out and then do it >> you throw that out. i was just doing the calculations you're like plus or minus 50, which is back to where they were and up knoyou know what, joe, we we talking about, 150 jobs if you get the monthly change within 150,000, i'd go home and fo -- >> people forget that.

you're talking in millions and it the difference in this guy added a job down the street and that counts at one that's not the way it works. all right, steve, thank you. >> joe, can i say one thing? >> can i stop you? >> and we setting an empty seat at the table for "the wall street journal" reporter being detained i'm a former wall street journal alum and -- >> ""the wall street journal" attorneys all -- that is a brave, intrepid guy you got there. with putin, we don't even know what's happening here. he could totally just be a pawn.

we don't know anything at this point. >> you know he wasn't doing what he said he was doing >> that's what i mean. >> last guy we traded we got some sleazy arms dealer free and that's not beyond putin to try stuff like this. >> joe, the feeling in russia, at least when i was there, was that the western reporters were off limits they didn't really care what we wrote because we weren't writing in russian and i don't know that that's changed as much. i would suggest a convenient person to perhaps take or negotiation. >> people that aren't in the game aren't supposed to be -- aren't supposed to be part of the process here >> this is evan gerschgovich of "the wall street journal."

>> and back to more mundane matters -- it not mundane. it's very, very exciting the government will release the jobs report at 8:30 eastern time hope springs eternal hoping for a weak report we'll be right back.

lp a bipartisan group of lawmakers are headed west to china. we take a look at how much is at take for disney in china julia. >> andrew, disney is more exposed to china and that's in large part because of shanghai disney, the park which opened in 2016 it is 43% owned by disney, the rest owned by state-control shanghai groups. the asia pacific region generated about 11% of disney's

revenue. there were park closures and fewer film releases in china last year. the park is disney's fastest growing and profitable division. now, there's this other piece to consider here, which is chinese's box office in 2020 it surpassed the u.s. box office and the chinese government decides which u.s.-based films are released in the country. of a disney's 2019 avenger's end game, about 22% of the film's global revenue for nearly four years china did not allow any marvel releases in the country. last year an extension of the

release grossed more than 630 million in the country each release slot could generate hundreds of millions in box office ref newspaper for the media giant. becky? >> so what happened? what did they do to get frozen out after 2019 >> well, it's a complicated thing and part of this was the fact that the pandemic happened. as theaters shut down, the thought was that they should prioritize chinese-based films there's also questions with content. we've seen some films being iced out because maybe the narratives and storylines don't fit with what the chinese communist party wants to be exercising there's been controversy over some particular storylines i think primarily with fewer people going to theaters in that

post-pandemic phase, they did prioritize the chinese films >> julia, thank you. when we come back, how the collapse of silicon valley bank has small business owners rethinking their financial relationships. we have new data on small business lending next. >> and taking the polls of individual investors in this market we have joe moglia as our special guest next like removing that tattoo of your first wife's name. but your mom's name is vicky too! that's even worse. ( ♪♪ ) inspire. sleep apnea innovation. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com. you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach

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welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc the futures a little bit of a mixed future, still the dow off by 35 points, s&p off by 6 nasdaq, call it green, up about a point. >> and pallinger expanding its relationship with microsoft from the public to the private sector it said its cloud service has achieved authorization and accreditation to support workloads at key levels at the department of defense. so that stock up higher on that

news >> the collapse of silicon valley bank and signature bank has smallbusiness owners rethinking their relationships with regional and community banks. kate rodgers joins us with more. hey, kate. >> small communities have relied on regional banks. this became even more evident with the pandemic with the ppp program where they were able to quickly help clients secure funding. but some small owners are reevaluating we spoke with jason duff he is restoring historic building in ohio and was turned down on a project in the last month by a community bank. he was able to move to another community lender to secure funding but says he's now assessing his relationships. take a listen.

>> i still believe your local community banks are the first and best line of defense, but in this market and in this environment, you need to understand all of your options because, you know, by comparing that you can look at rates, can you look at terms and not -- just at the surface, you need to understand all of the kind of things that go into a banking relationship >> all of his tenants are small business owners. one of their payroll providers was negatively impacted there. i spoke to another small busi business owner and said he split up his accounts with two regional banks you're seeing a lot of owners take a step back, reassess and evaluate what is best moving ahead. back to you. >> and owners you spoke to moving from smaller community banks to larger banks? it's not apples and apples

>> it's certainly not. that's such a great point, joe a lot of the thought behind this and what we saw with ppp was that the smaller regional and community lenders really are kind of in the center of town, they understand the small business owners, they understand their missions some may feel better at a larger bank i don't know that you're going to see a huge move to make that jump it's certainly within the realm of possibility from some owners who are getting a little jittery. they may have better luck at a larger bank and want to try their luck there >> all right thanks, kate to be continued. that's for sure. >> good to see you >> good to see you thanks >> good to have you back >> let's take a closer look at the markets and investors sentiment. we want to bring in joe moglia he is the former coastal carolina head football coach always good to see you >> happy to be here. >> these are some weird times in the markets. i want to talk to you about everything you're seeing out

there. all the questions about stability in the banks, whether it spreads, whether we've made it through some of the tougher parts. >> as far as stability in banks goes is the confidence in the banking industry itself. when we had the issues on the west coast, i think the government did a good job of coming in, not bailing anybody out but making sure the individual depositors, whether small businesses or whether they were individuals were protected. i think we still need a little clarity about that going forward but i think we'll wind up getting that i don't think there's anything anywhere near what we had in 2008 with regard to the financial crisis i also think there are some things here that are positive that have come out of this in terms of education of the client base so people today i think ar doing a much better job of they're much more fdic savvy that wasn't the case a little while ago, they're much more conscious of the yield they're actually getting on their

deposits and i think even from the banking perspective. you think back to when we had the people stocks and the blow-up with melnik, they learned the retail investors can hurt you if your short's too big. frankly, for a bank not to be as on top of what they need to be with regard to risk management is stupid. it's stupid. i think they certainly recognize now no matter what ever else they may have going on, their ability to be able to match assets and liabilities is a critical part of what they've got to do going forward. there are some plusses out of this i'm not saying there aren't good things to happen but these are some of the plusses to come out of the bad news. >> the plusses could also be the negative, the idea that people can move the money so quickly, look at not getting the deposit rate they wanted and realizing i

can get better over here and moving things so quickly that changed and created this whole emergency to begin with. >> i agree but i think that's technology. the plus and minus to be as -- the only way to get the money out of the bank was to go to the bank you had lines and lines around blocks and blocks of people waiting to get into the bank and get their money. that could be within days. and here within hours 42 billion was gone the social price you pay from the significant advances we've made from a technological perspective, i think >> one of the banks, toronto dominion is the biggest short in the banking industry 3.7 million on the line. it's not the biggest percentage

but it's the biggest short three reasons, their exposure to canada's housing market, the charles schwab issues they're having and renegotiating the terms. with your experience having worked and having run things, what do you have think when you see that >> i think you're talking about td bank specifically that reports to td bank group barrett misrani is not only a good friend but i worked with him for 20 years they approach things ultra conservatively and i think td bank having difficulty, whether it be canada or the united states, it's a little bit of the repercussion with what's going on in the banking industry i think that's part of that. i do know how conscientious they are and manage their risk so i'm

not worried about td bank from a longer term perspective at all it was not long ago one of the only two triple a rated banks in the entire globe they're going to be okay here. that doesn't mean they don't have tho go through a little bit of work before they get there. >> what has all of this meant for individual investors in terms of tlp risk appetite, what they're willing to do? it's been kind of crazy watching the markets hold up in the face of all this bad news >> i don't think i've ever said this ever in my career, but i do think it's actually getting a little bit easier for the individual investors now what do i mean by you? for a long, long time we've not been able to do anything in the fixed income market because rates have been so low for the last year or so, getting pretty good yields, go out six, nine months you get 4.5% yield or so. we talked about i believe the individual investor has to think seriously about having 50/50 bar

bell and 50% of it is cash you got 50% of your money you're going to be guaranteed 4.5%. you have 50% of your money that you're going to have in the long equity exposure. if the markets wind up going up, you still have 50% of your money, getting a pretty good return, plus 4% on your cash if the markets go the other way against you. you're not going to lose that much you have 50% receiving a 4% yield. i think that's the best deal an individual investor has gotten in a long time you can stay in the market and do a really great job protecting yourself >> going back to the managing of the bank, given that you were talking about the issue of how quickly money can leave a bank if that is the case, what do you actually do about that

i don't think any risk officer ever thought in a million years that $40 billion plus could leave the bank in half an hour i don't think anyone thought of that if that has to be built into the calculation, how does that work? what rules would you put around that if you were king for the day, running the treasury department, the federal reserve or whatever oversight committee is supposed to look at all of this >> one of the things i think we'd agree that happens every day with regard to our markets, we learn a little bit something every day. every now and again we have a major crisis going on, we tend to learn a lot i go back to the reference earlier, what are the chances three years ago that anybody would have suggested that retail people led by day traders, led by a reddit group could bring a major investor down.

nobody would thought that. when that happens, you think i have to have a better eye on my risk number two now, guess, what the banks have learned this and they know they can lose the money any time at all. so, therefore, what are the reasons why somebody might want to move their money? well, one is for the reasons that just took place now it looked like there could be some sort of liquidity run on the bank so why did that happen because you had crappy asset liability management you fix that and at least you eliminate this particular thing happening. now, that doesn't eliminate the possibility that this can happen but right now i think we probably don't know what you don't know >> do you think because of the speed and rapidity and some of the technology you developed early on is what's allowed this to happen, it should be -- this would argue for fdic insurance across the board or a meaningful shift in how it even works

>> i totally agree i'm hoping that's what everybody's working on so a couple months ago when these things were happening and powell came on, i think he said, look, i'm really not worried about the banking industry, we're going to be okay but the bottom line is we're going to take care of depositors. >> do you have think depositors should be taken care of? >> doesn't it require congress at this point? >> could you require banks to actually give them the option to buy some kind of insurance at certain levels if they do they maybe have different capital requirements, if they don't, they have other requirements if they don't have the insurance, they have to make it very public to the customer or is that a moral hazard that even if it's on the customer -- these are the things we're all trying to grapple with. >> i think you already thought about being king for a day on this topic

>> i don't know if my ideas are the right ones i'm trying to understand from smarter people than me >> those are the ideas that are supposed to be discussed at the end of the day we know we're not going to have an economy, a society, the united states will not be what it is if we don't have confidence in the banking system so we have to do something to protect our depositors we begin with a number of 250. these are the things that have to be discussed. when congress starts to get involved, this is not their area of expertise and i'm not comfortable that we're always making the best decisions for the country -- >> can you come up with one? what is their area of expertise in. >> politics. a good job fighting for your party and spitting on the other party. they're good at that they do a good job of trying to do the right thing for the country, they can come to an

agreement sooner rather than later. but i've neff seen our country more divided oaf the span of the last several years one part of the aisle will go out of their way to block what's doing. we've got an issue now but i think it's been raised i think the points you make are really, really good points i'm just trying to figure out how you deal with it >> let's discuss it. that's a good starting point you want to appear in front of congress you should have these conversations. >> we can make sure no one ever has more than $250,000 -- >> in one bank >> okay. >> we do have certain people who would like that. >> i would disagree with that, by the way >> thank you >> thank you all it's always fun to be on you going to say something >> no. >> the real morning joe.

>> we're going to head down to the floor of the new york stock exchange and find out what jim cramer is watchi ts rng.nghimoin and a reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast and listen any time we'll be right back.

we want to get down to the new york stock exchange where our good friend jim cramer joins us now let's talk fedex that's clearly moving.

i know you have the ceo of fedex a little bit later as well >> one of the things that has always bothered me about fedex, it like five companies you can't understand why each company can be so individual and different and that's going to end. and i think it's fantastic they have one of the most bizarre conference calls, andrew, where there would be many different companies on the conference call and then at the end they would say, wow, maybe that is one company. no more. and i think that there must be just layers upon layers of administration costs that can go away i really like this stock that's why the dividend is not a problem. remember, the key risk to stocks, i think he's proving himself to be a superior operator wow. what a smart move this is. i can't wait to talk to him about it >> we look forward to that conversation >> i want to bring your

attention to a stock on the move in a big way -- >> you expanded our cloud partnership money. >> it's expanded in terms of what it has to do with the government the stocks is up about up $12.50 just a year ago it's coming back where are you on palantir these days >> if dr. carp would do a conference call and stop dropping f-bombs and stuff, i think it would have a lot more legitimacy that's my take it was a meme stock, set at a very high multiple i prefer at all times palo alto networks palantir seems to be a company that's made up for memesteres like c3 a.i. was that fun or what how about this two-track market, andrew we have these companies that just run up by people and they don't really exist other than a stock, and then we have real companies. i'm into the real company

aspect >> you don't think of palantir as a real company? >> no, i think that palantir is a series of press releases >> wow yeah fascinating. >> look, maybe they'll pivot maybe they really will make money, and then we can have a real valuation going i like palo alto they pivoted they're usually profitable on a gap basis. whereas palantir, they ran that stock up and it was also a cathie wood stock. i'm so tired of the two markets, andrew, the market that is made up of real companies and the market that's made up of companies that are run by people the stocks are run look what they did with the c3 a.i. they ran it all the way up, and they had nothing at all. >> jim cramer, we will see you in just a couple minutes we'll get a response from palantir on this squaw"squawk box" coming ri back

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benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. just over half an hour from the opening bell on wall street. our next guest says the fed is walking a tight rope over a lava pit. let's talk a bit more about the markets now with jackie

cavanaugh, portfolio manager at putnam investments bottom line, jackie, we're up since october from the october lows, you point out, and multiples now are not cheap. and the s&p. and earnings revisions, if we really are going into a slowdown, whether it's soft or hard or whatever it is, a recession, they're still looking for year over year growth of like 12% so, if earnings estimates are too high and multiples are too high, this market is too high in your view. >> yes, thank you, joe thanks for having me on. it's nice to see you again i agree. multiples maybe aren't too high, but i certainly wouldn't call them cheap, so i don't think we get a lot of uplift from further multiple expansion, and yeah, i think the earnings outlook for '24 is very aggressive i get the '23 flat over '22. that makes sense we're going to still -- we're still in a pretty strong economy, and things are still doing reasonably well. the consumer is still reasonably strong but it's very hard to see.

i have to squint how do i get to up 12% in '24 when the fed's actions will definitely be biting i believe we're going to have a real credit crunch on the back of the drama of the banks over the last month, and the consumer by about october, november, will have spent through all their excess savings, so up 12% just seems really very unlikely to us, and so we are continuing to expect a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing, ultimately, and next year we think there's wood to chop on earnings estimates. >> a lot of times,the daredevils that do those tightrope walks, they usually make it, because they wouldn't do it over the grand canyon sounds insane, i wouldn't walk over lava. that doesn't leave a lot of room for error. but they usually make it can the fed be successful in what it's trying to do >> i think they can be, but i think the rope is getting thinner, and thinner and much more wobbly, i think the events

of the last month, we were skeptical on the soft landing thesis before the events of the last month, and i just think, and we think here at putnam that it's going to be a real challenge for the fed. on the one side, they still have unf inflation that's sticky, a job market that's very tight you have opec cutting, which is going to put upward pressure on the oil front. on the one hand, you would argue they have work to do on the inflation front. on the other hand, i think the banks are very likely to turtle on the result of the last month and you're going to see a real credit contraction, and so, you know, the fed themselves said that represents about another hundred basis points of incremental tightening, just what they expect to happen on the credit side, so it's tough i mean, you know, i think about this as, like, there's just no safety net for them here it's -- the only way that i think they're going to be able to thread this needle is just it's going to be the strength of the u.s. consumer and the job market, even if it weakens, still coming from such a really

healthy place. that's the one little sliver of hope, i think, we might have >> you mentioned opec plus that's a concern, obviously, but the other inflation that you're talking about, and i guess it's labor market-related, what can we do to help the fed? is there anything we can do, policymakers, to try and ease that is that really where a lot of the inflation is sort of in the system at this point >> yeah, it is it's really on the services side, and the 70% of the services input cost is labor, and so it is a labor, and it's a wage issue now, the wages have been reasonably tame, but as you just questioned, like, can that continue to hold there's not a lot, i think, we can can do the labor participation rate has recovered except for 55 and older. we think that's a labor cohort that is going to likely be out of the market. that's a lot of early

retirements, a lot of people post-pandemic are just not coming back. are there policy changes we could make around immigration? are there policy changes we could make to help with getting more moms back into the workforce? yes. but i think one of your earlier guests said it we have a very polarized political system right now, so it's just hard to see a path for really meaningful change on some of those fronts. >> and probably gridlock and as far as the energy complex, i can think of a lot of things we might be able to do there as well, but probably not very likely. but any supply-side issues, i just wish there was something, because the only tool to be hurting demand is just seems like you're sort of cutting off your nose to spite your face >> yeah. unfortunately, i think, i mean, they obviously did make some moves to open up the willow project in alaska, so there have been some moves, but i think you've captured it, joe. i don't think there's a great political backdrop for a

compromise on some of these issues, so the biggest lever is going to be price to hurt demand opec made the cuts reflected in risk of recession, but the other side of that coin is, you have china that's still not really 100% open yet. >> right, okay >> so, we are thoughtful about what oil looks like in the next six months >> all right jackie cavanaugh, of the big putnam, the regular putnam this is the real putnam up in boston >> the original putnam in boston thanks, joe. >> bye, everybody. we'll see you tomorrow 6789 ri right now it's time for "squawk on the street" ♪ good wednesday morning, i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer david faber has the morning off. after several days of softer than expected data, adp now comes in light, ahead of friday's jobs number futures give up some ground, and yields fall, ten-year now defendin