on the bio testing and we can think it can start to outperform >> joseph? >> biotech, another health care play >> i'll see everybody on "closing bell. right now, the dow is flat "the exchange" picks it up now >> thank you very much, scott. i'm dominic chu in for kelly evans. the tech trade has had a major run this year, but the nasdaq is underperforming today. so is it time to take profits in that tech trade? not so fast, according to one historian. speaking of the fed, private payrolls and ifm services data, including a leading indicator

for wages, coming in weaker than expected today this ahead of friday's big jobs report so is the recession prediction closer to becoming true or can the fed nail the soft landing? we'll discuss that one area of the services trade that's not seen prices softening is travel. one analyst is seeing signs of slowing there, as well we'll have the names but first, today's markets, and right now we are drafting towards the session lows as we look at what things are shaping up to be, it's a red day across the board right now, the s&p is down about 25 points. that's the low of the session. it's been generally to the downside we were down 25 as you can see here at the lows of the decision for the s&p. we are now below the 4100 mark, 4,074 is the trade for the s&p 500. the dow industrials, just about flat on the session, outperforming. it's that tech heavier nasdaq composite trade off 1.5%

183 points for the composite 11,942 is the level there. if you look at how sectors are playing out, there is a defensive tilt towards the markets. the ones outperforming in the gr green today, utilities, health care stocks and consumer staples are the outperforming stocks the big names in tech and tech related companies are the real underperformers. if you are looking for an extreme underperformer, there is still stress in the regional banking system and a sentiment there is still decidedly negative western alliance bank is one of those banks that got caught up in the silicon valley bank failure that hit a lot of those west coast banks western alliance down 17% today because they provided an update. what they declined to disclose was the total number of deposits that they had, something that they have updated in the past in

the wake of svb's collapse that gave questions about just what that means for the deposit base at western alliance, leading to the 17% decline so keep an eye on regional banks, especially the ones hit hardest in the svb failure the nasdaq down about a percent and a half today so is the end of the recent bull run in play? not necessarily, says one of our next guests. he says the technicals are looking constructive for technology joining me now is david harden, ceo and chief investment officer at summit global investments jeff hirsh also with us on the phone, editor and chief of the stock trader's almanac thank you both for being here. david, we'll start with you. this technology trade has been the driving force behind the rally that we have seen, no doubt about it why is it that this trade is still very much a focus, and can that rally continue? >> i think one of the things that this magnificent meta,

tesla, amazon, et cetera, these individual companies are doing very, very well. so from a tech perspective, even though we're rather defensively playing it right now, and we're a defensive manager, we're a risk manager, the reality is, this trade probably continues, and this breather is probably good for those stocks. if you look at them long-term, i don't think we're going to get the prices we had in system of these individual names that we had back in december so overall, i'm defensive on the market, a little cautious on the fed, but i'm positive on this area >> so there is the kind of bigger case and the story around it jeff hirsh, you have studied this for a long time with regard to seasonality and trends in the marketplace right now. we have heard a lot of stories how april is good for the stock market how are the charts lining up, is it validating some of that historical seasonality

positively for the month of april? >> it is validating that we're in the sweet spot of the four-year cycle. we've been bullish since last october. but the nasdaq, you know, the qqq, a new bull market, up about 23.4% from the december low to the march close. it's still a little behind the sweet spot averages. so a lot of the head winds are keeping that back. but april across the board, very strong technically, things are looking really sharp and really supportive over the last few weeks. but there's still some work to do here it is, april, great month, but last month, we're starting to think time to do a little spring training, look at the portfolio. we're bullish for the year but the first six months can be troublesome in a preelection year with a debt crisis looming over the market that no one is really talking about right now so we have some gains, looking

to capitalize on that. but moving into, you know, the end of april, may, june, we're looking to tighten up the options and clean up some underperformers in the portfolio. >> speaking of positioning, david, there's a case to be made that you should be doing a little bit of fine tuning if you're hyper sensitive to the risk factors out there, whether it's interest rates, a banking crisis buckling up again what exactly is the tilt right now? is it towards those defensive stocks outperforming today i highlighted utilities, health care, and staples, all outperforming today's trade. >> i think you do have to have a tilt in your portfolio no doubt that we've had zero capitulation the fed is still out there you named some of the other risk factors. the market is in the, you know, it's really not completed the bear market trade. so you have to give attention to some of these macro factors that are going to impact the market you have to have, i think, some

weights in your portfolio overweighting some of these areas. what you get that through a defensive manager or etm, or you get that to your individual positions and stocks i think that's very vital in the portfolio today for investors. >> david, let me follow up what stops are there in your portfolio that you are allocating to clients to play out that defensive trade that you're laying out? >> i think there's two ways to go about it. one is positioning into stocks, one is intuit, high quality earnings, superior margins any stocks you're looking at beating on the top and bottom lines, they should have an increase chance of outperforming their peers in the months ahead. having said that, one of the better ways of going through your portfolio, do some spring cleaning there is a lot of stocks that are, quite frankly, not worth owning

they have too much risk. the company specific risk for these stocks are not worth it. if you own southwest airlines, southwest airlines, oil is going up we know that they have had problems multiple times. there's better options out there. these are some of the stocks you want to reduce in your portfolio. intel, for example, had some great returns or above average returns here to date but let's just face it, it has a potential dividend cut there's other stocks that are better options so i like to say, have the s&p 500, but minus the positions that are risky to your portfolio. >> and jeff, we're going to give you the last word here if you look at the charts, what exactly would you be into right now or where would you want to stay away from >> we're already in utilities. utilities have a seasonal strength from march to october that's something we got into down near the lows.

overall, the economy looks robust, more so than some of the fearmongers want to say. so we're going to be patient and ride this out through the next six months and get ready for another big buy at the end of the worst months, maybe september, october time. >> we'll be watching that jobs data david harden, jeff hirsh, thank you very much. have a great day, guys see you soon a couple of key meetings are taking place in california today. first, a group of lawmakers sitting down with tech and media executives over the next three days to discuss china related topics we are moments away from a highly anticipated meeting between house speaker kevin mccarthy and the president of taiwan, out of all places, the

ronald reagan presidential library in simi valley to. break it down, amon is with us in washington, d.c. with what could be on the agenda and what it will all mean for u.s. relations with china >> we got that video just moments ago. we saw the arrival of the president of taiwan, and speaker kevin mccarthy at that reagan presidential library in california this is a enormously brought session, because the chinese government expressed its objection to such a high level political visit from a country that the chinese seize as a breakaway country. the taiwanese visit is not an official state visit that's due to the ambiguous nature of u.s./taiwanese diplomatic relations so in is being described as a transit to the united states

she is expected to meet with a bipartisan group of a dozen lawmakers, including the top republican and democrat on the new house china select committee. the chinese government sees this meeting as a provocation, and has threatened to retaliate for it not clear what they have in mind there. also today, members of that new china committee shared by mike gallagher, will meet with bob iger of disney, screen writers and studio executives to discuss china and the influence over hollywood. that group will meet with brad smith and high ranking executives from google, alphabet and scale ai, as well as with venture capitalist mark andriesen. on friday, they are expected to meet with tim cook of apple who just returned from a trip to china, where he attended meetings of the china development forum and posted pictures touring an apple store in beijing so a lot happening here on the

u.s./china relations front, diplomatically and on the business front >> this is the first time that house speaker kevin mccarthy has met with the taiwanese president. the taiwanese president had met with then house speaker nancy pelosi in taiwan, and that led to a very, very steep retaliation in the form of military exercises, live fire exercises from the likes of china. are we expecting a similar response because of this particular visit with our current house speaker? >> we don't know, but you did see that response to the visit with pelosi. you saw the chinese navy moving positions in and around taiwan, in a response to that visit. as we look at this video again of mccarthy inside at the reagan presidential library you can expect something from the chinese. the u.s. urging the chinese not

to overreact to this meeting, but the chinese are extraordinarily sensitive on the issue of taiwan. they will want to respond to this in some way it's now impossible to predict exactly what way that will decide to respond. >> all right, thank you very much coming up on the show, recent data, weaker jobs, lower input cost showing that fed rate hikes are doing their job, maybe surprisingly so. but with two fed presidents now calling for further increases despite the numbers, is a recession becoming at this point unavoidable? that story is next plus, natural gas prices are seeing some relief today, but they're hovering near the lowest levels since 2020. we'll speak with the head of the country's largest nat gas producer about that, and what it will take to stabilize some of the nat gas prices as we head off to great, a check on the markets again, approaching some of the session lows you can see the s&p 500 down about 19 points.

the dow is just about up 48 points "the exchange" is back after this (vo) right now is the best time to roll into verizon and switch. (seth) i got this incredible iphone 14 pro on them. (vo) that's right! switch now and get iphone 14 pro on us. there's more! you get apple watch se and ipad. all three on us. this offer won't last long. verizon

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welcome back to "the exchange." recession warnings getting louder, as more economic data

comes in below expectations on the heels of yesterday's deappoints jolts number, private payroll came in with a bigger than expected miss for the month of march on top of all that, cleveland fed president loretta mester said rates need to "move a little bit higher. so are we on the road to a hard economic landing joining me now is diane swan, chief economist at kpmg and our very own steve liesman steve, we'll start with you to lay things out for us. economically speaking, are we, in fact, seeing the initial steps or tea leaves that indicate a bigger recession is coming >> i don't think so, dom it's entirely possible, but when i think about landing a lane, you have to pass through 10,000

and 5,000 feet to get to the ground i hate to use this metaphor, but it's about cooling versus crashing some of this stuff is a return to normal. take the adp who knows if it's right or wrong, but say it's 145,000. it's kind of what you would want if you didn't have a hot economy that's a pretty good number. i had this feeling, a flashback to normal times. take a look at supplier deliveries, or even prices paid. they're back down towards normal i can't say, and i think the market, dom, is the one that is really concerned about this idea that we're going to pass through cooling on the way to crashing right now, it's early to say that a crash is inevitable >> probably why markets are holding up and not indicating crashing but diane, if you look at some indicators out there, like yield

curves and spreads between long-term and short tated bonds and notes, it indicates that things are due for a pullback and not just a normalization so is the data suggesting right now that we could be seeing more signs of that? but to steve's point, it may not just be the dire economic situation that some are forecasting for. >> i think the real issue is the economy has been remarkably resilient. in the face of that resilience, the fed has doubled down, even with addition al tightening in the pipeline that will try to divorce the idea of rate hikes from financial stability tools the two are intertwined. you can't just divorce them. the breakup is not easy. and i think the real risk now is, we've upped the ante that the fed overshoot. another important issue is a research study just came out

from the kansas city fed that looked at the service sector it's much less interest rate sensitive than other sectors, which means the fed believes it has to overshoot to get to that core service sector inflation, which is so worried about. that sets the stage for this harder landing that sooef stalked about. i call it cooling. you don't want to send the economy into a deep freeze, but you'll get a little more chill than you like and a harder landing with the fed continuing to fight inflation and the pipeline of tightening that we have in the credit system already. it's going to really hit those businesses that have been the backbone of the recovery and the resilience, and added businesses with less than 250 employees in the most recent labor turnover surveys, job openings with businesses over 5,000, fell yet again. it's the smaugller businesses tt

have been resilient. and those are the puns that will feel the crunch in credit. >> so let's say that is the case right now. steve, we have had a lot of conflicting data, speaking of hard versus soft the hard economic data, the stuff that we can measure is showing one thing. the softer economic data, sentiment survey, that sort of thing. in the past year, they have been pointing towards slowdown, recession, and none of that has come to fruition i wonder, though, in this case here how those sentiment gauges are playing out right now compared to what the hard economic data is showing >> yeah, that's a good observation. to make that extinction is important for investors to do.

i bet the forecasters we survey are getting tired of this, but we've been waiting for the consumer to give it up for quite a while. i know that everybody thinks that employment is a lagging indicator, but i think it's at least koco-incident. one of the things powering the consumer is jobs and wages they don't need a lot, dom if you think about the participation rate is high, the unemployment rate is relatively low. a lot of the population is employed and there's two factors that are going on that to me is a race to figuring out what's going on first is the idea, if inflation falls, wages and employment remain high, people will get real income increases. on the other hand is a major x

factor in every survey that i read, which is the credit tightening if that really goes -- the numbers really start to come down, then you're going to have probably a much harder landing than even the most optimistic person can expect. >> diane, with that in mind, you work for kpmg. that's a lot of consulting and audit relationships with a lot of different businesses of all different sizes. i'm shower a lot of those clients ask you a lot of different questions. what is the biggest concern that businesses in america have been approaching you with, with regard to how things are going to play out in the next 6 to 12 months >> the most interesting is how much there's been a shift, the biggest concern was finding workers. it still is a major concern but not the only concern now that's something that we have been surprised at. the other thing in our own inflation survey of individuals

that make decisions on wages and on prices, even though they're not as concerned as they were about labor market shortages, they're all in on labor saving technologies on the flip side, their expectations for inflation longer term have not come down and have been much more sticky than we would have expected, given some of the consumer sentiment surveys that we have seen out there so the people making the decisions out there think this is more a structural labor market shortage. and more persistent inflation, we have harder boarders, more geopolitical uncertainties we have climate change, the extreme weather events, and supply chain disruptions that haven't gone away. so those things are the things that the fed looks at and says they're hearing it as well from all the people they talk to. and that makes them worried we

are getting into inflation and doubling down on averting the error of the '70s and perhaps creating a whole new mistake and overshooting, especially given their focus on service sector inflation why they think it's less interest rate sensitive >> it gets more complex. one last word. we have to get out of here, steve. >> just real quick right in your area, dom, which is the market has to puzzle over this less than, it's good, but if that comes with less economic growth, that's the question that the market goes back and forth with sometimes every hour. >> agreement between steve liesman and diane. thank you very much. coming up, and speaking of the fed, if they're hoping for prices to come down, they may want to look anywhere but the travel business. we have that story, and what it means for the economy if the rebound in travel and the prices we're paying are here to stay.

and take a look at shares of western alliance the stock had been halted. up here, you can see they're up by autbo 10% at the beginning of the show, it was down about 17% so it spiked higher. western alliance still down 11%. "the exchange" is back after this our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory. and save us a ton of dough. then let's take back our market share. checkmate, chess heads. girls, i said “bedtime”!

(vo) right now is the best time to roll into verizon and switch. (seth) i got this incredible iphone 14 pro on them. (vo) that's right! switch now and get iphone 14 pro on us. there's more! you get apple watch se and ipad. all three on us. this offer won't last long. verizon welcome back to "the exchange," everyone. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc update. secretary of state antony blinken with final rounds of sessions in brussels with nato officials. while abroad, he took part in the 10th u.s./eu energy council

meeting where he emphasized continued u.s. support for ukraine. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy visiting poland to meet with the country's leaders and ukrainian refugees the ukrainian president was also awarded the order of the white eagle, poland's highest honor. during his visit, poland has taken in millions of ukrainian refugees and provided vital weaponry to the kyiv government, as the fight against russia's invasion continues back in the u.s., a group of colleges is challenging a class action settlement that could lead to student loans being canceled for hundreds of thousands of borrowers on wednesday, the colleges asked the supreme court to halt the case that could lead to $6 billion of student debt being forgiven the case is unrelated to joe biden's broader reference to forgive student loan debt, which is also countly before the justices with a ruling due in the next two months dom, back to you

>> tyler, thank you very much. up next, energy seeing big gains this week, regaining its throne as the top performing sector in the s&p. and the names to buy now with a stock tracker in that sector "the exchange" is back after this , don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org.

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welcome back to "the exchange." let's dive into the energy

market earlier this week, opec announced a surprise production cut of around 1.16 million barrels of crude per day, starting in may. the move sent oil prices higher, crude up 7% this week, making energy the best performing sector during that span. and through the swings, they've been kind of wild as of late oil is basically, believe it or not, flat for the year it's been a roller coaster ride. nat gas, on the other hand, has fallen more than 50% since the start of 2023. prices at the lowest level since september of 2020. so what's the next big deal, big thing for the energy complex we'll get the names to buy in oil and gas with rob thumel. and with the view from the top, eqc ceo toby rice. toby, let's start with you and look at the big picture for nat gas first.

i'm not asking you to make a prediction of prices, but i want to ask about the structural state of nat gas in america. is this a time where you feel like you can keep producing more >> let's look at the structural state of american emergency on the world stage. when we see issues, external factors like opec and how that influences prices, it affects the energy security for americans. it's easy for some to look at that and say the sun is setting on american energy independence. when we take stock of what we have in this country, we realize that the sun is setting on a renewed birth of american energy freedom, that comes in the form of natural gas when you look at what this country can do, if we can unleash american energy, we will have the potential to add an amount of energy to the world stage equivalent to saudi arabia it's a massive potential but we need to make the choice

to unleash american energy, opening up a new era of energy security, for us as americans and allies around the world. >> i don't ever want to confuse oil with natural gas they're part of the energy complex, but they're independent in some ways of each other but we saw how sensitive the american public is to energy prices and food prices we saw extreme evidence of that over the last year do you think that experience, with those higher oil prices and higher food prices, has given americans a different perspective and maybe politicians and lawmakers a different perspective on how they treat energy prices in the future >> absolutely. i think you look at the chaos that was set on the world stage with the disruptions that look place with russia, and you look back in '22 and realize what did the world learn? it learned that energy security matters, and without energy

security, bad things happen like rampant inflation. and also people's ability to transition falls flat, it stops. and the other important lesson is to look at where did the world turn for that energy security they turned to u.s. lng on the world stage. if that's the solution for a lot of these issues, we have the ability to do a whole lot more the amount of natural gas that we have in this country, we can increase production over 50%, allowing us to quadruple our lnd exports. that's like adding a saudi arabia to the world of clean energy >> toby, what's the story around the use of natural gas as a quote unquote transition fuel? there are a lot of folks out there regardless of what end of the political spectrum you're on, there is an evolution that will happen to clean energy. there is a movement away from

hydrocarbons natural gas, while still kind of hy hy hydrocarbonesque is seen as a bridge fuel. >> when we look at the transition in context to emissions, understand where the biggest source of emissions on the planet is, it's foreign coal coal emissions make up the significant portion of emissions in this world, almost half of the emissions coming from foreign coal we can use natural gas to replace those emissions from coal the question is how big of an opportunity is this? foreign coal, it would take about 180 bcf a day of natural gas to replace foreign coal. our plan to unleash u.s. lng would be responsible for taking a massive bite of about 60 bcf a day out of that. certainly, it's going to secure the future of american natural gas for decades. when we pick our heads up,

natural gas is problem loi the best energy source that's positioned to become the trifecta of energy, which is cheap, reliable, and zero carbon and to make natural gas zero carbon, all we need to do is to pick up the tools and get carbon capture working. with that, natural gas will become a zero carbon energy solution it is what the world has been looking for. and this industry is going to deliver the cheap reliable energy carbon source the world has been searching for, bassed on natural gas >> i no e this is a complex question, but before i let you go, your foot print for natural gas production is different than other producers. you are predominantly here in the northeast, in the appalachia region, versus the ones in texas and oklahoma is there a difference in terms oh of the way business is done in regard to the actual production of that nat gas in a

geographic sense >> regardless of where you are in america, american energy is the cleanest in the world. specifically, though, there are better places and cleaner places in america the best in america is coming from appalachia. we have some of the lowest greenhouse gas intensity production as a perspective, our carbon footprint to produce the energy we produce is about 400,000 tons of emissions when you think about the reductions we receive when we put this under water, we'll have the potential to reduce admissions around the world by 180 million tons our energy is clean, but the focus needs to be on the reductions between people use our products that's why we say the world needs more natural gas, and eqt is a big provider of that if we can unleash american energy. >> toby, thank you very much for being here and sharing your thoughts appreciate it, sir

let's turn now to the best way to play some of the big names in energy. rob, you just heard the energy from toby rice and eqt the energy trade is not just exxon and chevron. there's way to find outperformance what goes on the energy select list, if you will? >> yeah, thanks dom. we agree with toby that natural gas is going to play a huge role going forward, both domestically and globally in order to play a bigger role, you need infrastructure. so ways to play natural gas and oil in general and the energy sector in particular is for energy infrastructure. so the largest exporter of u.s. lick questionified natural gas in the world, it is exporting liquefied natural gas all over the world. so we expect u.s. lng, that

trade to grow. that's one area in energy where you will see a lot of growth another stock is energy transfer the pipelines that operate basically all sorts of energy pipelines, oil, natural gas. almost a double digit dividend yield. this infrastructure is really critical, really essential, especially as the u.s. becomes more and more critical and essential to providing both domestic energy and energy to the rest of the world. >> all right now, okay, so we have infrastructure pipeline providers. what's the outlook in your mind for straight-up exploration and production companies, oil and gas, enp, do you look toward the majors like chevron and exxon or more pure place, smaller

players? >> in general, if you just look at all the sectors that stocks like are those that have high free flow cash yields. almost all the companies in the energy sector are doing that right now. when you look at the opportunities, chevron is an excellent opportunity. it's got a very high dividend yield. when you look at where the growth is coming from in the u.s., we need more u.s. oil and gas production oil is being produced out of the permian basin, and it's growing in terms of production chevron is leading the way in growing. but a lot of companies are doing other things as well, along the energy transition to help decarbonize or reduce emissions. that could be looking at carbon capture or hydrogen. when you look at one of the majors like chevron, exxon, they

have abn all of the above approach >> just before we let you go, rob, you have to make certain assumptions about oil and gas prices with regard to making some of these calls. what exactly is the outlook for oil for you? >> yeah. so oil, we think that the demand for oil is going to accelerate in the second half of the year the world is going to consume more oil than ever in 2023, ever in history so as demand accelerates in the second half of the year led by china, we expect oil prices to increase around 85, plus or minus $5 for the rest of the year that's a win-win for the producer and conumer the consumer won't see sky high gasoline prices like we saw last year but producers is make some money

and return that, as well >> rob, thank you very much. all right. still ahead on the show, regional banks getting beaten up today. first republic share where is down 4% so far how the ongoing stress in atth sector has small businesses rethinking region al banking that story is next

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welcome back to "the exchange." it's not just the wealthy moving their deposits out of banks. small business owners are rethinking their relationship with their regional banking partners kate rogers joins us now with the recent bank failures and how they are impacting main street america, especially the quote unquote backbone of the american economy, and that's small business kate >> hey, dom. in the week of the collapse of those two regionals, some small business owners are taking a loser closer look at their banking relationship there is data that shows smaller

deposit amounts. many banks across the country said while there have been withdrawals, the end result has been -- the message from the ceo is that movement has come down to the regionals are working to maintain the relationship with small business owners. take a listen. >> banks across the country, including regional banks, are well capitalized with adequate liquidity. they've been planning for a change in the economy for two plus years so they are ready for whatever is next. >> i have spoken with several business owners. they're being impacted in varying ways one was turned down for a loan that would have been a no-brainer in the past, but it was a week after the svb collapse another said he would be splitting his deposits between two regionals now. what is of note here, the owners are still telling me they're

staying with the regional banks versus moving into a larger bank >> that's interesting, because for many of these small businesses, it's the regional bank lending officers that know the economy and the local business climate better than anyone else. so what is the leading or lending environment looking like right now for some of these small business owners, given that backdrop of perhaps tightening credit conditions >> yeah. so it definitely remains to be seen how this shakes off we'll hear on tuesday on the lending front when data comes out. we have new data that shows more than half of the respondents said they want them to obtain adequate financing, and terms had become less favorable. 9% said that new challenges have arisen post collapse so perhaps there was some of these issues in play they talked to more than 500 owners

we'll continue to be in touch with owners on the ground and bring you what we have >> thank you very much, kate speaking of the banks, i want to quickly add a little more color to what we showed you with a western alliance story. now, the bank is saying now, at the end of the quarter, its us r compared what it was at 53.6 billion at the end of 2022 western alliance then went on to say that since march 20th deposit balances have stabilized and grown approximately 900 million to the quarter end those shares remember at the top of the show were down about 17, 28%, down 12% right now which is why you saw that tick higher intraday that's because western alliance came out and gave us the actual number for deposits which moved the stock. still ahead on the show, despite the uncertainty discretionary is holding up including travel shares. both marriott and hillon are up 9% this year, but is the end of so-called revenge spending on

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welcome back if you're planning a summer trip this time around, you probably noticed that prices are still pretty darn high seema mody is here with the details of why, how, what. what is going on >> dom, this is the year that americans are expected to travel overseas well, it's going to cost you airfare for an international round trip up over $1,000.

up 30 boston and a search-night cruise in april now going for $830 versus a $650 you would have spent a year ago. latest challenge cheques shown by morgan stanley shows demand is robust and customers are opting for higher-priced cabins. royal caribbean will outperform carnival and norwegian cruise line this year, but there are parts of the travel market that are starting to crack. car rental prices, for example surging last year due to the shortage and tracking 15% lower than 2022 levels vacation rental prices have also moderated. deutsche bank analyst lee horowitz forecasting airbnb to deliver a softer guide for the second quarter hotels are still commanding pricing power. that's really being led by the vacation hot spots like maui and the florida keys, but average occupancy numbers across the nation also starting to soften post the spring break craze. >> seema mody. the current state of play here for travel let's talk a little bit more about this vacancies are actually ticking

up does this signal the end of revenge travel spending? we'll bring in the macing director and senior analyst over at t.d. cowan. kevin, it appears as though the prices that we're seeing are actually leading to a didn't in demand is that what you're seeing as well >> we're not seeing that exactly. i think it's important to point out that lodging bracing is market driven. these hotels are charging what people are willing to pay, and just to put it into context, hotel prices in the u.s. right now are up about 15% to 20% versus 2019, and that's actually right in line or even a little bit below inflation in the overall economy, so, sure. if you look at specific destinations like maybe miami, you'll see higher, but overall it's right in line with overall inflation, and that's just what travelers are willing to pay in terms of revenge travel, the nights in the u.s. and europe right now are right around where

they were in 2019 so we didn't see a huge wave of growth over 2019 levels. we only recovered to around where we were, and then it's been stable and that's been the story for several quarters, and everything we're seeing right now is that it's continuing to be a little bit stable there was a little bit of sign of softness early in march but the second half of march has been totally fine. >> so with that in mind, then, are there certain positions positioned better from a certain perspective? is it the airline straight up, cruise operators maybe people will go back to airbnbs? >> sure. i cover hotels in all my travel stocks, and i want to look at those. our favorite is airbnb travelers are really liking that vacation type. they want to stay in a home, especially if they are with their family or a larger group so we'll see that trend conditioning, rand overall we do like -- we do like the travel

stocks as a group because we think they are reasonably priced, and as of right now while there's a lot of macro uncertainty, the numbers have been solid, and we hi if we're able to avoid a large uptick in the unemployment rate, we think people have travel higher on the priority list and they will continue to take those trips. >> okay. before we let you go there's a reason why airbnb shares took a huge hit last year there were supply concerns too many people coming on board to put vacation rentals on their own. is that still a concern, and if it's not, maybe that's the reason why the stock is already up like 30% plus so far this year >> in part of this story it certainly traded with some of the more larger expensive tech stocks last year it's come down in valuation, and really they came out and let people know their supply is accelerating again it's market-driven travelers are looking for these homes, and homeowners and people with second homes and investors are leaning into that and

listing on airbnb, and it's the leader in the market, so i think that's a huge part of the story. >> thank you so much for joining us, kevin. appreciate, it sir. >> thank you. that does it for us here on "the exchange. by the way, we'll show you the tyler cam. it's tyler mathisen, the countess, not the barons, contessa brewer getting there red for "power lunch." keep it here after this quick baruch for "power lunch. switch to verizon and get welcome unlimited for just $25 a line. (seth) i love that it's guaranteed for 3 years. (cecily) yeah, get an awesome network and save money doing it. (seth) not bad. (cecily) you get to keep your phone. more savings. (vo) switch and get welcome unlimited for $25 a line. guaranteed for 3 years. (cecily) hey, that could catch on. (vo) yup! don't wait. switch to verizon today. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso!

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