develops in real time. kate rogers, thank you just a quick check on the markets. a mixed picture. the dow eked out a gain of 80 points the s&p town slightly. 4090 was the level there the nasdaq down 1% you have constellation, jobless claims tomorrow. that's going to do it for us here "fast money" is next. right now on "fast," kevin mccarthy meeting with taiwan's president. we'll break down what kind of blow-back could be coming from beijing. plus, one of our traders is all charged up about a name we rarely mention on the desk a name we've never mentioned, in fact we'll find out why he thinks this stock could power higher. and later, inside the cost cuts at fedex. tesla's rough three-day slide and stunted growth in some of the tech names

i'm melissa lee. we start off with the three big omens in the market right now. first, there is gold the seminole safety trade. prices touching their highest level since march of last year in early trade, as fears of a recession grow gold miners at their highest since may. and then there's rates dropping across the board with the yield on the ten-year at the lowest level since september. the spread is as wide as it's been in 40 years and finally, banks continuing their slide lower. the kre regional bank etf taking out its lowest close of the year at levels not seen since november 2020. so, what are all these moves telling us about the strength of the market and the economy dan? >> well, the strength of the market, the stock market, it really just defiyies everything that you just laid out there jim was on last night, he was talking about the move index so, the volatility of the bond market here, and we -- it's just

notable that the spread between that and the stock market measured by the vices. t a day like today, when you saw what you saw in the regional banks, weakness across the board in the nasdaq, you know, really underperforming the s&p 500 and there were dozens of stocks, down 5%, 6%, 8%. the sorts of stocks that should benefit when yields are coming in, and they were the ones that started getting killed when rates started getting higher in late 2021. so, i think warning bells are screaming in silence right here and for some reason, the equity market has not gotten the memo >> not just the moves in tech, but also industrials >> yes >> so many names just being taken 3%, 4% >> i know, one of my absolute favorites, united representals, getting annihilated on fears of the slowdown, construction spending slowdown i think, to me, it seems way overblown, but to be honest, i thought that 30, 40 points ago or more, so -- i mean, i still like the name.

i feel like the infrastructure bill is still really important to them. they're background balance is great, their sheet is in great shape, and this is -- i mean, it is a cyclical business, it does have a cyclical kind of pe but there's no mercy there i mean, you know, i feel like, you know, wallflower standing alone at the chance and everybody else is having a good time and there i am just drinking my uri drink. but i don't know, i still like it seems overdone to me it's a lot of cross winds about the, what's happening in the economy, what's happening to rates, and then the giant bank question, which we're not going to have more clarity, we got that odd western alliance -- >> right >> we're going to release data, we won't release anything about deposits until the market cries and then we'll release things about deposits so the markets feel better. >> that was -- i don't know what happened there, why they withheld the probably single most important piece of data and then later came out with it, but

that's going to be hopefully some clarity, because the carry is looking terrible. >> you have all of these sort of patches out there and together it makes the quilt, and, you know, just sort of an array that indicates trouble ahead. and yet you have the markets holding up and that's basically because apple and microsoft are 13% of the s&p 500 so, how do you think about positioning yourself in this sort of environment? >> well, i still think -- i don't want to go 100% defensive, right? i don't want to buy gold i don't know anything about gold, because i like things like cash flow, so, i think all you have toll be focused on are durable business models. i like things that are really nice and boring, like a cooper company that sells contact lenses that's the type of business i would be more interested in right now than anything that's hyper cyclical or hyper defensive. >> yeah. guy? >> contact lenses?

i mean, you know, i wore contacts in high school, not that you care, i was playing basketball outside, one of them fell out and i never wore them again. >> but you don't wear glasses. so how do you see? >> no, i had my eyes zapped years ago, i mean, that's probably more information than anybody wanted to know >> a lot of information five minutes into the show. >> yeah. >> but anyway -- >> julie brought it up what you mentioned at the top of the show i mean, that's a pretty unholy trioca, as they say. $70 billion in gold bought last year i think it's the most record and gold demand was 4170 tons. and that was up 16% year of year rick is coming on, i hope he hears what i'm about to say, they're hedging their own ineptitude good for them, because i think gold has a lot left.

the market might be bullish of gold, abut it's not long of gol, and i think one those circuits kick in, one those basically levels kick in for the hedge funds, you can see another round of buying, so, gold going higher, yes, banks trading miserably, absolutely. and bond yields out of control, something that this show has been talking about, not for the last week, mel, but literally for the last couple of years >> yeah, i mean, bank of america had an interesting note. mostly technical, but saying gold against all the different currenci currencies, euro and yen and the u.s. dollar hitting new levels high levels, gold against oil, gold against bonds, all these charts look positive for gold. i mean, you like julie have never really gone into gold, never got gold -- >> no. >> never bought gold, but in this environment, is it starting to look attractive >> well, i do have bitcoin, right? so, and -- directionally, sort of going the same way to the extent that people think, all right, well, the fed is done and, you know, they're not going

to be disciplined anymore, that's helped both stories but also this, you know -- the bank thing hasn't hurt bitcoin either, right? that's been helpful, so, sticking with that, even though it's a really small position >> gold, the gld is the etf, and there's a lot of other instruments that are tied to the physical and the like here i look at this thing and 2020, it had the spike above $180 and came down really hard, and in the start of last year when we had the russian invasion of ukraine and we had a whole host of kind of macro issues that seemed like where there was not a whole heck of a lot of certainty, wesaw it move back above 180, and we just went from 150 to where we are right now. i just think chasing it up here doesn't make a whole heck of a lot of sense if you think about the last few years, we've had all this volatility, and it's 's been upward in 2018, the gld was at 110 or so, right? so, we are almost at 190 if you are coming to the trade

right now, it's not going to do you a lot of good. i know guy feels differently, peter that comes on the show, but these are narratives that you should maybe always be exposed 2%, 3% to gold i think that's kind of the gold buggy sort of thing. i have never subscribed to it. i just don't know what a 2%, 3% position holding it all the time is going to do for me as a hedge. >> despite gold finishes platt on the day, it is still up 11% and chart master carter worth seeing more golden gains ahead so, carter, walk us through the charts >> sure. i mean, one thing to note, look, there are three types of people when it comes to gold. you fall into one of three categories there are people who never own it, never want to own it, never will own it. the opposite people who will always own it. will never let it go, gold bugs. and then there are people who want to own it from time to time, want to hedge. the latter two are fine. i mean, obviously you don't want to have 80% of your net worth burying your stuff in the lawn

but using precious metals as a timing tool makes sense. let's look at some charts and data and see what we can divine together the first is just -- this is -- this is an inconvenient table for the first group, people who never want to own it, can't own it, won't own it this is, well, inconvenient. gold and the s&p are even money going back to december 199 6 they are returned the exact same -- its annualizing, you can see 6.8% the first response, the critic would say, well, what about total return you just go back to 1997 gold has done its job on a long-term basis. you could see the chart right here, there it is. now, one could say one's more volatile, one's less volatile. they're even money for basically 22, 23 years, and with total return about 20. so, it's something to note for those who never want to talk

about it or own it right now, that's important. this is the ratio chart. gold to the s&p. it is simply one divided by the other. this has been bottoming for the past two years gold has been outperforming equities as an asset class now, in terms of what's the potential, you see long-term chart of gold here, the low, and this is the irony, of course, gold is down 200 now, thereabouts, it's in the year 2000 cisco was worth more than any company in the world and people loved dot com and they hate gold we know how the story ends that's why it's a great story. and then gdx we think we're headed to around $42 a share, we closed at 34 and change today >> so, gold, carter, i know you are looking at gold, but in terms of silver, do the charts look similar

we've seen the chart going higher, as well. >> sure, silver's a very small affair relative to gold. often called poor man's gold, that's sort of pejorative, but silver is fine, if you want to own the slv. that or individual equities, there are all sorts of ones that are bottoming here and we like it a lot >> carter, it's karen. it's interesting when you say the s&p versus gold is almost exactly the same do gold bugs get disappointed when you point that out? i was surprised when you pointed that out >> ah, well, i don't know. it's the first group, people who never want to own it are, how can that be? i do all this work, and gold has kept up with the s&p since 1996? that annoys them the gold bugs, i suppose that makes them feel quite proud. >> i was wondering if it annoyed them see, all this fiscal irresponsibility going nuts and yet -- >> well, yeah, maybe they think they should have had beaten the

s&p, who is to say but it is remarkable and even forgetting, with total return, gold and the s&p since basically early 1998 are even money. that's with dividends reinvested that's a shocking thing. >> that's definitely a surprise. carter, thank you. always bringing the charts carter worth guy, what do you make of that? i mean, i -- in some ways, you think, oh, well, then, gold -- but then you're like, well, just keep it in the s&p 50 0, if it's even money, what makes the difference >> yeah. it is interesting, though. i would sure 3450mise if you pod 100 people in times square, no one would come up with that answer in terms of the returns ill g i understand what people are saying, if you think about what's going on globally, with the moves we've seen in currencies and bonds and all the different things and all the

gyrations with the central bankers, gold is going to win to this and it's on the verge of breaking out and silver, since you brought it up, mel, gold is within a whisper of its all-time high silver is 50% below its all-time high so, silver has some catching up to do. and the right pway to play this i believe, is through the spyf, something that danny moses talks about, and we are right up against the level we last saw, i think, in the summer of 2011-ish >> phys? >> that's what i said. that's what i said phys >> all right let's get to the drop in race now, and the signal it's sending to the market. let's bring in rick santelli for more on this rick, the ten-year yield, lowest close in ten months? >> yes lowest yield close in seven months and the two-year note is just right there very close. few basis points away from the same thing let's start at the beginning we all know all the data we've seen this week and it hasn't

been pretty. on monday, you had ism headline, a whisker above 46, that was the lowest level since may of 2020 yesterday, jolts, i brought the number out at 10:00 eastern. under 10 million, worst levels since may of '21 this morning, we saw the producer -- excuse me, prices paid for the service sector at the lowest level since july 20th so, let's look at the two-year, you can see that it looks like it came back towards the end nay nay. if you look at twos and tens together on the september chart, you just referenced that, you can clearly see, they are all moving fairly together, highly correlated and three months the tens, the real recession spread, is at minus 153. the most inverted of my 40-year data bank. and what are central banks doing? i like your conversation about gold i yused to have one little fly n

the ointment well, guy, i was in the pits in 1980, i think it was january or february, in chicago, which led in gold been comex, before we destroyed the contract in chicago, and i remember trading around 840, 850 in the lead features contract. if i do my math correctly, adjusted for inflation, the current price of gold is nowhere near where it should be, and i think that is the biggest thing to focus on. >> yeah. guy? >> you know how i feel about rick he's the mount rushmore of just bad asses out there in terms of what he talks about. and he'sen unwavering. his discllike for central banks and all the things he's done he's probably right. gold should be significantly higher, and i would just submit, i think we're just a matter of time from seeing that, rick. >> yeah. >> yeah, you know, i'm not sure -- i love gold, too, i wish i could go back to the hay day

of trading gold. i just don't see if. if you look at the charts, it's hard to get a gps within inflation. it's a sterile commodity, and with interest rates going up, you have to really be careful. and fed fund futures, i'm nervous to get into a discussion there, because it's just another contract that people think is magic and it isn't, but right now, if you do look at it, the way the cme advertising it with a percentage, we don't even have the quarter point for the next meeting priced in yet. >> all right, rick, always good to see you, thank you. rick santelli. julie, what do you -- we've had an inversion, we've had all these sort of flashing warning signals about the recession for quite some time, so, why now is it just because all the other data points are moving in that direction? >> you know, i think what was lacking was something akin to a financial crisis and i think that's where you start to get the breaks in both

consumer and business confidence and that's where you get meaningful changes in the abilities for businesses to continue to spend, to continue to hire, you know, ism continues to be very soft. the numbers were interesting in terms of construction being solid, but continued ism weakness in the manufacturing sector, i think that starts the bleedout and i think it's just a matter of time now where we start -- the warning signs start to really materialize. >> it's interesting, though, when you think about the ways to kind of express views in the market, so, if you look at the spy, the etf that tracks the s&p 500, the implied volatility, the price of options on a short-dated basis, they are equivalent to the price of options in the gld that is not something that you see too frequently so, the 30-day implied for both is about 17 or so. so, after gold's had this big move, okay, if you were looking to express a bullish view, would you rather pay 17 vol for gld or pay 17 vol for spy puts? and really, they're the same

trade for all intents and purposes, so, that's kind of the lens that i look at this through and that's why i wouldn't be chasing gold here. i see what carter seeps in the charts i see what guy has mentioned on a long-term basis and a lot of this stuff is going to come together at one time, when we see major dislocations on almost every other risk asset market that we track, except for equities, i get why you want gold i just think that, lean into the s&p right here. coming up, fedex delivering on its cost-cutting plans. will the strategy help drive profits higher but first, con-ed trading at all-time highs the surge in utilities and other defensive sectors when "fast money" returns we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it.

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welcome back to "fast money. con-ed heading to all-time highs today, jumping more than 2% as investors flock to the safety of the utilities trade. the stock is up nearly 31% in the past two years utilities are among the top names today. so, is the defensive trade for real guy, you brought up con-ed we may not have ever talked about this stock ever on this show maybe once in the history of "fast money" >> yeah, well -- people in the

tri-state area are probably not huge fans of the utility, but i'll tell you, in terms of a stock, you talk about lower left, upper right since the mid 1980s. we had that huge selloff a few months ago, but the stock has come back like a champ i think they have $102 price target and con edison announced a month or so ago a billion dollar accelerated stock repurchase plan now, it's not cheap, which is a bit of a concern, but i'll tell you something, there seems to be this fight in the form of safety and now in utilities, when you see that, a lot of that has to do with yields coming down, but i don't think that augers well for the broader market i think it continues to go higher here, but i think it's something to watch in the form of what's really happening below the surface. karen mentione s hyg all the ti, that didn't perform well, but watch the utilities, mel >> you said it's starting to show cracks? >> yeah. >> in terms of how you think about defensive, you go more

health care? >> yes more health care, which actually today had a very good day. very good day. across the board little rotation there. out of uri, everything out of uri into pfizer -- >> they all went everywhere else it's interesting, though when you talk about the defensives and you talk about staples, utilities, health care, they are down on the year. it's interesting when you think about that it's kind of like the opposite trade of what we had in january, the yolo thing, get into all the stuff that got hardest hit last year you look at the sectors, and all of a sudden, this goes back to what we were talking about in the last block, you see the interest in them on a day where you see a lot of stocks getting murdered you see some stress in the financial sector, that sort of thing. it doesn't make me feel better about owning the broad market right here, especially as we've been talking about what we've seen in small caps over the last couple weeks, underperformance there, so, i don't know. i think it's really important. you were talking about stitching or something like that -- it's

not -- yeah, thanks guy. >> quilt >> it's not a great-looking quilt. it's kind of being held at some really weak seams together the sewing that you might do >> i'm a very good sewing. extremely precise stitching on my part. >> fair enough. coming up, fedex driving higher today as it lays out a plan to cut costs and boost profits. we'll get you the details and break down the sttrade. plus, why our next guest says things could go from bad to worse. a geo-political risk for the adrket ahe you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back after this. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

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welcome back fedex shares ending higher

the delivery giant says it will combine almost all of its ground, air, and other operations by next year as part of a $4 billion cost-savings plan guy, you've been watching this one, how does it look versus u.p.s. >> well, it's cheap. karen can speak to this, it probably trades a little less than 13 times next year's numbers. you probably, i think you have maybe 20% eps growth, maybe a hair more. it's always traded at a discount, because quite frankly, i hope somebody from fedex is watching, they haven't run their particularly well. now they're -- i think they have their arms around things now this drive program, which you mentioned, $4 billion savings, goes right to the bottom line by 2025, and if you look at the last quarter, that was surprisingly good. so, i understand one quarter does not a trend make, but if they continue to operate the way they did the last quarter, this stock is just too cheap here at 13 times, so, yeah, i like fedex here, i think u.p.s. is fine, but i think fedex is finer

>> julie, what do you say is fedex finer? kids at home, don't use that word, finer, it's not a real word >> i think the big challenge for fedexhere is that they're trying to combine their express and their ground groups. and the thing is that they've been able to avoid unionization by strict categorization of these two groups one under the railway labor act, the other under the national labor relations act. so, the thing about that is, if they are not able to maintain those, they're suddenly going to be under much more pressure for union organization and so, these $4 billion in savings will not happen if that happens >> karen, you made your choice >> i did >> awhile ago. >> so, awhile ago, they were priced very differently, that gap has closed a lot i'm long u.p.s., i'm not long fedex. they're within, i don't know, one or two multiple, maybe two multiple points of pe, and i mean, this -- the $4 billion, i think, is doable, when you think

about their overall expense base of maybe about $80 billion, that's not -- that's not a gigantic amount, so -- to julie's point, i mean, that's one thing that has weighed on u.p.s., which is their -- they do have a very large union, right, maybe the largest in the united states, i'm not sure. besides the government but i -- i don't know. i feel more comfortable with the management there i feel like they are looking for profitable business over mor business and so -- and i like multiples below market, sticking with u.p.s. bigger dividend, as well >> keep an eye on the transport index, and, you know, obviously u.p.s. and fedex are in there, and it really seems a bit stuck here and i think there's a lot of -- as we talked about the different industries, it seems like there's a lot of industries that are kind of very uncertain about what happens next. and it's really this debate that we've been having for, it feels like six to nine months now about, when is this recession

going to come, it's one of the hotly anticipated recessions, and i guess the fear i would have, as we enter q-1 earnings and we start to get q-2 guidances, how much visibility a lot of the companies have, and how much, you know, yes, we talked about the dollar's round trip this move and rates coming in just recently or whatever, but companies are also cutting cap ex, they are firing people, they are doing things in preparation for a more difficult environment, and when you think about this little mini banking crisis, and i just can't believe that it's going to be combined to a few weeks, given all the extraordinary measures that the regulators and the fed and everybody took here that i just think the lack of clarity is going to be the thing that starts weighing on the stock so, keep an eye on transports, some of the industrials, because they are going to be some of the first to feel a slowdown >> do not miss fedex's ceo on "mad money." that's tonight right here on cnbc. coming up, house speaker kevin mccarthy making headlines after his meeting with the leader of taiwan

why our next guest is terribly rrd out u.s./china relations. and the names investors are leaving and if you should follow suit don't go away. more "fast money" in two it's beautiful. it's a beast. it's electric. with an edge. oh, let's go with that. ♪♪ how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪

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today. the s &p dropping another quarte percent. the nasdaq getting hit hard, down more than a percent, while the dow managed to eke out a game of 40 points. fifth positive session in six. shares of costco heading lower the company reporting same store sales down 1.1% in the month of march. house speaker kevin mccarthy holding a meeting with taiwan's president today and there is concern it will spark more outrage in china eamon javers has the latest. eamon? >> hey there, melissa. this was the highest ranking u.s. politician to meet with a leader of taiwan on u.s. soil since 1979 tsai ing-wen side-by-side with house speaker kevin mccarthy at the ronald reagan presidential library in california today. it's an enormously fraught session, because the chinese government says it objects to a high level u.s. political visit with a leader of a country the chinese see as a breakaway state. the taiwanese visit as a result is not an official state visit due to the ambiguous nativure of

u.s./taiwanese diplomatic relations, so, this visit is being described as a transit by the president of the united states still, both leaders spoke of a commitment to each other and to democracy. >> the friendship between the people of taiwan and america is a matter of profound importance to the free world. >> we work in a world where democracy is under threat and the urgency of keeping the beacon of freedom shining cannot be understated >> the chinese government says it sees this meeting as a provocation. not clear what they might do there. but members of the new congressional china committee meeting with bob iger of disney, screenwriters and studio executives in california to discuss chinese influence in that industry. tomorrow, that group is going to meet with brad smith of

microsoft and high ranking executives from alphabet, as well as with venture capi capitalists. on friday, the select committee members are expected to meet with tim cook of apple he himself just returned from a trip to china, where he attended meeting office the government organized group china development forum and posted pictures of himself touring an apple store in beijing a lot going on in this relationship >> a lot of meetings, eamon, a lot of very important people in industry here in the united states what do you think that the end goal is, to pressure these companies to let them know that there is danger to doing business in china? i mean, what's the point >> well, i think with the ceos, i think the point from the china commission is, they're trying to lay the groundwork for some of these ceos to attend high profile, maybe prime time hearings here in washington, d.c. that's something the ceos might want to get a sense of where that's going before they commit to that, because they don't want to be embarrassed in washington over their relationships with

the chinese. but it might also be an opportunity for the committee members to hear from the ceos, their perspective of the pressure they're under in terms of the access to the chinese market if they don't confirm to what the chinese government is saying i think it's trying to see if they can find a sweet spot here where the lawmakers and the ceos can work together without embarrassing each other, as frankly was the goal at least on the ceo side the politicians might want to gather some information and see what the hearings could look like >> eamon, thank you. eamon javers guy, we talked a long time about the risk to multinational in terms of the china exposure. is it coming to a head the china risk has been there for awhile we had nancy pelosi go to taiwan and relations weren't great then, and so, the taiwanese president comes here, meets with kevin mccarthy, the same sorts of issues arise. is it any worse now, do you think? >> i think so. and i'm not trying to be an alarmist, but to call it an

in-transit meeting, that's comical. if that's fooling anybody, then shame on that person of course it's an official meeting and of course the chinese are going to be upset about it and of course they're going to do something to rachet up the rhetoric. thankfully, it hasn't manifested in anything significant yet, but it seems to be getting -- the rhetoric seems to be continuing to be racheted up, not racheted down, and at some point, especially with the -- all the things going on, one has to wonder what the chinese will do in retaliation and i've said it, you know, numerous times, karen, has said it, julie i'm sure, dan has said it, in the crosshairs are u.s. multinationals, specifically apple, mcdonald's, starbucks and if you think they are impervious to that, i would say think again. >> our next guest says the risk of a war between the u.s. and china is growing stephen roach wrote the book "accidental conflict: america,

china, and the flash of falts narrative. stephen, i'm wondering how you would -- now you are a professor, how you would grade the calculus that was done by kevin mccarthy in meeting with the taiwanese president at this moment in time >> well, melissa, i think nothing happens by accident in washington when it comes to china, and the same is true of china with respect to the united states mccarthy, like his predecessor nancy pelosi, there's no big secret as to what -- the message they're sending, as guy just indicated. they're offering support for taiwanese independence they won't say that explicitly, but that is the not so subtle sub text and for china, that is -- that is their red line,

and they pushed back last august and they will most assuredly push back after this meeting it wasn't, you know, quite the same thing, but you know, it clearly raises a real warning flag for them that we're going to keep, you know, putting our foot on their throat i was in china last week, i was in the same meeting that tim cook was at. and, you know, sure, he was saying positive things about apple's relations with china, because he wants to keep doing business with them in terms of selling products, but also in offshoring production to china at considerable saving to american iphone-addicted consumers. so, he's walking, you know, a fine line here, and then, you

know, the select committee, we know where they're coming from they want to bash anyone and anything that has anything to do with china, and they will, you know, drag these guys, all the multinationals you just cited, will probably be brought in front of their committee and interrogated, u.s. the way the tiktok ceo was haranged last week in washington >> you know, mccarthy said after this meeting that he believes that there's a bipartisan position to speed up arms deliveries to taiwan so, the rhetoric is certainly there and i don't think there's any sort of hidden message as to what the intent is when it comes to china and taiwan, stephen when it comes to the multinationals, you know, if you were in the position, as you were before, to advise these companies, what would you say in terms of, you know, whether or not they should be prepared that they have to pull their business out or in some way pare it back

>> well, a lot of multinationals have made major commitments to china, and they certainly don't want to pull out, but i think at the same time, melissa, they're -- in their board rooms, they are all talking about contingency plans, about hedging their offshore production away from china apple's already done that with shifting some iphone assembly and production to vietnam and india, small amount. but i think, you know, all multinationals who have made such a massive commitment to china want to at least begin to work hard on a plan b here >> what is your guess on what the retaliation from china might be, you know, not only do we have this going, we have also, you know, the hearings on tiktok not that long ago. and so do you think it would be a hit to u.s. companies in china or would it be something more along the lines of a sort of

like a -- not a military, but maybe a cyber or something like that as opposed to on industry? >> well, look, last october -- excuse me, last august, they certainly had a major, probably the single largest pla military exercise in the taiwan strait in years, if not ever and, you know, i think you can look for a similar type of response, maybe notxtreme, maybe just as extreme. we don't know, they haven't moved aircraft carriers, you know, in the taiwan straits close to the -- to the island, and they are reported to have other ships -- significant presence of ships in the area, as well, and whether or not they move them into the same type of warning position, i have no

idea >> all right stephen, thank you nice to see you. stephen roach. it's one thing to move away production out of the country, but you can't move your coffee store out of the country that's what you do, you can't move, you know, it's like, all these companies that sellinto and depend on the chinese consumer, and the thing is that china's government doesn't necessarily have to take a hit, they can engineer a social media sort of campaign for there to be a strike on u.s. companies by the consumer, i mean, we've seen that before. >> yeah, we talked about it. when you think about apple and where they sit as far as market share, you know, they're in the top five of smartphones, they're not one, they're not two, when you think about tesla and evs, it's the same sort of situation, and if there's some reason for some nationalistic fervor from a consumer standpoint, i think that's going to be -- when a guy like stephen roach, who we have followed for so long and knows china better than most of us

know the u.s. economy is sounding the way he is, i'd also make the point, like, i'd be worried about the other visits that xi has made, that he made to the kremlin not too long ago, he brokered a deal between the saudis and the iranians. when you think about that, there is this bipolar situation setting up when you talk about the potential for an economic war moving to a hot war, you have to think about the precedents that were set by u.s. multinationals when russia invaded ukraine, and that nationalistic consumer behavior is something that will be felt by our companies over here >> all right, coming up, tesla's market share going in reverse. which ev makers are gaining ground here? we'll drive into that trade later. >>bufit,> t rs big tech stumbles what is getting investors to rotate out of this trade that and much more coming up on "fast money.

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welcome back to "fast money. an exodus from big tech today. meta falling more than a percent, despite not one but two big analyst upgrades fellow titans apple and nvidia feeling the heat smaller names like twilio, doordash, airbnb sinking i thought lower rates, julie, was going to keep this trade alive, because that's good for tech.say sarr castically

>> it was interesting watching tech in the first quarter with an explosion of interest after they had been so beaten down last year and now you're seeing a real reversion and i think it's just a function of fundamentals a lot of the bidsesbusinesses as not as well positioned as they could be in a softening consumer economy and that's important to keep in mind you can't forget the fundamentals, even though everyone would really like to. >> yeah. guy, yesterday we talked about nvidia and how a lot of people here on this desk and guests were saying to short it. is now the time? >> yeah, well, i mean, paul came on and gave his seal of approval and once again, his timing was perfect, but just full disclosure, i thought it was the time probably $50 ago, but it's come off from $280 if you look at the math and figuring out, what's sort of the 50% retracement of the move we've seen in the last six, seven months, it's not out of the realm of possibility to see

this back into the low 200s. it is an expensive stock they told a great story around their earnings, but i think people are starting to come to the conclusion, wait a second, in this environment, even nvidia has to slow down and i think that's what we're seeing now >> all right, options traders are betting the bottom may be in for one name in the space. brian sutland has the action brian? >> yeah, kind of an interesting one today, because the stock got hammered like all those stocks you just mentioned, but we did see despite the excess put buying of five times average daily buying, we saw a big put seller trying to pick out a bottom here. that was the may 45 puts they were sold as $1.05 during the day. 10,000 traded at the break even down there, 439 5. quite a bit more to fall, and i think a trader was sealing the option premium we've had a up couple of big

swings, so, you have to be careful, but it gives you an indication that maybe the bottom is near here for this stock and other tech names that got hit hard today >> all right, brian, thank you for more options action, be sure to tune into the next full show, that is not this friday, but next friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, is tesla's dominance feeding in the ev race a new repo ortut today shows two major auto makers are gaining ground and sharing market share. we'll bring you the details and the trades when "fast money" the trades when "fast money" returns.me trade dogs?when "fast money" returns.me you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. my name is douglas. i'm a writer/director and i'm still working. in the kind of work that i do,

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welcome back let's look at shares of costco, down after reporting a more than 1% drop in same store sales. average transaction price down 6% now down about 2.1% afterhours guy? >> it's just worth bringing up quickly, i mean, what does it say about the consumer in an environment where costco should be killing it? i would submit they're actually not doing well e-commerce down 12.7%. u.s. comps down 1.5% that's not good. now, i'm sure that they will blame weather and obviously there was a lot of weather over that period of time, but this is something you absolutely have to watch, because if costco is not winning, you have to look at the u.s. consumer that we've been

talking about, mel. even at the ev market is growing, tesla's piece of it appears to be falling. a new report showing tesla share shrinking by 18% in the last year a report says it could fall below 50% in the next couple of months the biggest winners as tesla losing ground, gm overtaking ford for the number two spot its volt sedan grabbing part of the market tesla down 10% this week karen? gm is winning. >> well, winning, i don't know that i would call it winning but i mean, they've got to get it together. so, maybe they're starting slowly and we saw gm ahead of ford, but you know, they've got to scale massively several hundred thousands cars a year, but once you said who is winning, if tesla is losing, i thought you were going to say dan. >> dan is winning. >> that is the beauty of actually the tesla story we know they pushed adoption of evs dramatically

so now everybody is winning, because the pie is that much bigger, so, it makes sense their market share is going to come in what i think is really interesting, you mentioned the chevy volt so, that is this kind of mid to low end ev, right, and that's something that i think is going to appeal to the mass market that's what tesla wanted to do they wanted to start with the high end model s and move into this kind of mid to low end thing. what's interesting, i took a couple things away from the survey the model s is down 75% registration from january 2022 so, that speaks to the higher end, the germans and some of these higher end japanese really making inroads over there. so, the battle is going to be fought in this mid to low end range. and this is where detroit does well this is where the koreans do well this is where the japanese do well so, to me, i just think it's not a foregone conclusion that tesla's going to win this race from here on out the competition is here. >> all right, up next, final trades i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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time for the final trade guy? >> the way we bounced off that 225 double bottom in amgen is epic, mel. >> julie >> you know, walmart today talked about the need to automate their supply chain and i think there will be more

>> karen >> yes, hyg short. we touched on it briefly i think there is room to run here we haven't even seen credit really start >> dan >> yeah, i think if her hyg goes down, i think yields on the ten-year are going to continue to go down >> all right, my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. >>, i am cramer, welcome to mad money. time to make some money. my job is to teach you, so call at one 807 43 cnbc, or tweet me at j