good thursday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with morgan brennan. charles schwab, liz ann sonders with us on the value clash between sec and financials and some early jobs number tomorrow. ben lerer is with us on set at post 9. down 53% later on, jim stewart of the

new york times on warner discovery one year later and some of the c-suite drama at disney that's a company jim knows well. let's turn to the markets. we have pressure on this final day of a holiday-shortened trading week with the dow down 135 points the s&p is lower as well because, of course, the markets are guy digesting bad economic news as potentially bad news for stocks. topping the tape is earnings con ten success expectations for eps to fall by 7% in the first quarter of the year for s&p 500 companies. next week highly anticipated reports. let's bring in mike santoli, who's working overtime which says a lot. >> if that's the case, this

quarter, the one we're going to hear about is the trough for earnings growth. that's pretty bullish. i think that might represent an upside surprise to what people have mostly been anticipating, which is a slow leakage lower of earnings forecast. the 2014 numbers are the big ones in a few months that's going to be going into everybody's forward estimates. it's showing like it should be almost a return to record profit growth again that's how the math starts to work it would be a good thing i don't know what that involves in terms of assuming what gdp level gets us there, but it definitely -- the market has been able to handle the cutting of earnings forecast during the quarter itself the last three quarters this quarter since january 1st, 7% decline in the anticipated level of earnings growth that was the same as the prior two quarters and the market sort of had its expectations adjusted enough and it wasn't a disaster i think everyone is wondering if we have a cliff or a plateau. >> we've been in this range for so long now. because we're getting in front

of the earnings season, blackout windows start taking effect. does that create vulnerabilities or take out one more marginal buyer? >> i think that's happened i think a lot of companies have backed away from stock buybacks. it does. i wonder how much is the swing factor because in general people have raised cash, derisked a little bit if you listen to the goldman sachs hedge fund analysis, it seems like the systematic trading systems have to be net buyers that was the thing coming into the week it hasn't played out so far. it's hard to know. it's one thing that is removed, a possibility. again, reporting season hasn't been unusually week even though we've been in blackout windows >> we talked about it a few moments ago but the fact this is the final trading session for stocks at least for the week, we get a jobs report tomorrow so far the data, particularly jobs-related data, labor-related data, has been much worse than anticipated. so, you've got to think that even though volumes are low today, that there's a lot of

uncertainty out there in the market in terms of positioning coming in. >> it's very tricky. it's interesting you're going to have the ability to think and rethink and re-evaluate that number a little bit. if it's a strong number, i've heard people say, if stronger than expected number, are people going to immediately write it off? say, we just saw the revised unemployment claims data we don't really think this is credible, maybe missing something. if it's weak, have we more or less leaned in that direction? with the two-year yield at 3.75% and everybody projecting cuts for the latter part of the year, is it going to be news if we get a 100,000 versus a 200,000 jobs day. look, forecasts have missed by 100,000 on average. >> january was crazy we all remember january. >> steve liesman in the last hour, right, saying for the last 11 reports, it has been better than expected, the jobs number. >> by an average of 100k. >> mike, we'll see what happens

tomorrow mike santoli with that outlook in mind, could the bank earnings stop the momentum we've seen? our next guest says the narrow growth of the rally doesn't bode well with the performance gap between tech and financials, the widest spread since 2009 joining us charles schwab chief investment strategist liz ann sonders. i wonder, adp and jolts and the pmis, isms all this week, does it feel to you like we're in a moment where things are beginning to crack and that might get ratified tomorrow? >> yeah. and not just those data points but claims, in particular, the pretty significant upward revision to last weekend we think of claims as the leading indicator within the headline type jobs indicators. and it is relative to payrolls, coincident unemployment rate, lagging.

can you go to the leading, leading indicators and check all the the boxes now. you see a lower number of job openings we've seen that. it's lag data from jolts, only to february. but then you see hiring freezes. we've seen plenty of those announcements. then you see layoff announcements, in triple digit territory year over year for five years you can check that box then you see the actual layoffs, unique in the cycles that they've been more top down, up the wage spectrum into the managerial, supervisory and then eventually feeds into claims and payrolls and the unemployment rate yeah, we are starting to see the dominos suggest that the hit, frankly, the fed has wanted in the labor market, maybe in front of us right now. >> we mentioned in the intro the rush to technology and the disparity between them and banks. how does that get resolved does it mean that tech is the last man standing and that does create vulnerabilities for the

indices? >> some of the move to tech, i think, is muscle memory of many of those stocks representing the pandemic -- the worst part of the pandemic, the defensive names. there was a fundamental story there, too, because they represented the ecosystem in which we were all living during the lockdown phase now as some might be the muscle memory of this is where you go and things are tougher, but there's also maybe a fundamental underpinning in the sense that for the most part, these are -- have been around a long time, well-capitalized companies that have cash flows in the here and now, don't need the traditional banking system or even the capital markets. what we're seeing in terms of weakness and financials, i think there's no question you're going to need to see stability there for real sustainable move in the market not because financials have to lead us out of a bear market it's not always the case but what it's representing in terms of constraints in the banking system, the likelihood

that credit gets constrained even more than was the case pre-svb where credit conditions were tightening even then. i think we have to work through that and a stabilization in financials would probably be that sign that the contagion is starting to be limited here. unique to this environment, i do think we'll need to see some stabilization in financials. >> speaks to the health or not so healthy nature of this rally. it raises the question, even with the big run we've seen in mega cap tech names, are they truly an area where investors should be putting money to work given all the uncertainty now? >> i think you have to go individual name by individual name and not make monolithic calls. the common question is always, do you like tech or do you not like tech? i always think, what within tech i don't cover individual stocks but you could have in this giant tech tore of technology, you could have unbelievably well

capitalized companies that have ample cash flows and lots of earnings and pricing power and, you know, strong balance sheet then you have companies that would be considered within tech that might be zombie companies with no profitability that might be on the verge of bankruptcy. that's why i'll go back to you've got to be factor-focused and look for things like interest coverage and pricing power and strength of balance sheet and strong cash flows. apply that analysis or screening within every sector and across all segments of the market i think that's a better way to approach than sort of making a monolithic call of yea or nay, particularly at the sector level. >> given everything we've seen play out with the banks in the last couple of weeks, how much do those earnings when they kick in next week actually set the stage for the rest of the season >> i think it may not be earnings for the quarter and where they sit relative to expectations because the fallout

of svb occurred into march so, i think it's going to be the guidance that's provided both specific to each institution what is the hit in terms of deposit outflows or net interest margin, but also what the outlook is looking forward, both in terms of the prospects for their own institutions but also what they're seeing in terms of credit availability as well as loan demand. and the health of the consumer, commercial real estate there's going to be a lot of questions about that with the small and regional banks so i think it's more about the outlook than it is about how did each institution dorelative to where the expectations bar was that given 2 1/2 months of the quarter was essentially pre-svb. >> that's true that's true. there's usually so much context within those reports i think it's going to be doubly so in the next couple of weeks

liz ann, have a great holiday. >> you, too. thanks. still to come, global venture fund falling by more than 50% year-on-year in q1. we'll look what it means for silicon valley and the one area that is seeing inflows, ai plus, ubs warning that costco's surprise drop in same store sales could be a larger warning sign for the retail sector overall we have more on that call when "squawk on the street" returns in two minutes with the s&p at 4082 you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire ♪♪ choosing miracle-ear was a great decision. like when i decided to host family movie nights. miracle-ear made it easy. i just booked an appointment and a certified hearing care professional evaluated

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welcome back let's check in on venture capital. new data from crunch base pointing to more than 50% decline in first quarter of 2023 with slowing down across every funding stage. the funding that occurred, 20% went to ai startups. the collapse of silicon valley bank adding to the pressure of the ecosystem this past quarter. here to join all of us is ben lerer on set with us welcome. >> thank you >> when you hear numbers like that, does it jibe with what you're seeing out in the startup ecosystem right now? >> that does that feels consistent. i think we're going to see this for a while. it took a few quarters for some of the shock to sort of fully settle in from how hot things were in '21, but this is healthy. i think it's going to take some time for not just the volume but

also -- this is about price discovery at the end of the day. prices were so out of whack in '21. everyone was excited as things have come back to earth, obviously as public markets have traded down, we found ourselves in an environment where there's a big disconnect between investors and founders >> it sounds like we're on the precipice of someone like you as that takes root? >> we're early stage investors i think more of the opportunistic stuff is going to happen in later stages where you have companies that raised large rounds at very high prices they're burning through a lot of that money there's going to be potentially spectacular opportunities there. i think in the early stage it's smaller spreads, let's say, but we think this is a great time to invest coming out of any very disruptive time.

there's -- history says these are the best cycles to deploy into but right now there is -- it is slow and everyone is taking their -- i think, taking their time. >> i wonder what you think about the pace of innovation, how that's going to change on the one hand you could argue, well, would-be founder knows they're not going to get capitalized as easily. on the other hand, if they get let go from a large tech company cutting back, maybe there's more startup incentive. i don't know. >> there is so much startup activity to say that the pace of investing is not indicative of the pace of innovation, there's incredible things happening. obviously, everyone's blue in the face talking about ai, but it's real, it's here it's going to be as big a shift as mobile was. there's going to be an entire generation of companies that will be built using ai in different ways that will be fascinating. i think this is -- it is not to say there's not really interesting stuff being built. it's just that the way companies

are being funded is being done more judiciously deals are taking longer to get done in particular where the big numbers are not happening is at the late stage that's where you see the real slowdown and it's because of that bid/ask spread. >> that sounds net healthy, i guess. >> it is very healthy. this is a fun time right now to be an investor that has capital to invest. i think a less fun time if you're out raising your next fund but if you have funds and you're set up to go and deploy, this is a really cool time great opportunities. you have more time to do work, which is great in covid it was hard deals were getting done. a founder comes in and says, i have six term sheets, would you like to be my seventh term sheet? it was not set up to do the most responsible type of investing. right now it's a fun time. >> how closely are you watching the meetings between lawmakers

in silicon valley and tech executives and vc folks as well? there is this ever-increasing focus on and rising tensions where china is concerned it does seem like the situation, especially things like defense tech and the startup world, where you're starting to see more investor flows into areas with this in mind. >> we're always, i think, taking broadly regulatory considerations into -- into our thought process. there's things we can control for and things we can't control for. as early stage investors, again, we are highly team-focused we're looking for sort of right founder market fit, the right folks to tb building and we're looking in markets that have tailwinds. so, things lining areas of clean tech driven by the i.r.a., things like that are really exciting for us. but we're so team focused we try not to get caught up in places where, honestly, we're not going to have influence and we don't want to sort of make bets that we don't have control over. >> if i were to throw out a

bunch of silos to you, ai cloud, media, mobility, fintech, is there one that -- you've mentioned ai, but are there others that are obvious winners in the next 24 months? >> i think ai is the overwhelming obvious winner in terms of where capital is going to go and where there's the most opportunity for innovation there's going to be, as with any hype cycle, too much money is going to flow in and there's going to be a few -- there's going to be some spectacular stuff and a bunch of death and destruction that happens when the space gets overfinanced. it happened -- it always happens. it can happen again. we're also really interested in energy transition. that would be the other main focus area for us right now. >> we're four weeks out from the svb collapse, or the eve of the svb collapse i wonder what you think of the landscape now that some of that dust has settled and what some of your founders, your portfolio companies have done in the wake of that with

their deposits and their banking? >> so, i think that that was a -- in many ways it felt like a near-death experience, even though it wasn't actually that it was a very traumatic moment for a bunch of companies, particularly companies that banked with svb. i think what it has done now is a few things one, obviously everybody has a treasury strategy. companies are now keeping deposits across multiple banks i think companies are thinking differently about early stage debt and venture debt more broadly. that shift was already happening. and certainly we were promoting companies not using venture debt in responsible ways. there's going to be less of that happening going forward, as there should be. but right now i think we feel like the sort of crisis is behind us. it was symptomatic of a bunch of

irresponsible things that happened over the last few years that had to work their way through the system and and i think that when interest rates rise really quickly and when you have something like covid, some things break and this is something that broke >> ben lerer, thanks for joining us on set. markets are closed tomorrow, as you know, for good friday "squawk" will air a special report for the jobs number that comes out at 8:30. the program begins at 8:00 a.m. eastern. you do not want to miss that tomorrow for jobs. all-time highs in the meantime ogsse rshey's, monelez, prreivwith the dow down 72 don't go anywhere.

binge is back. we're taking you behind the scenes of extrapolation, a miniseries on apple tv plus. it imagines what humanity's potential future could look like on earth in 2037 and beyond. we talked to scott burns, the

show's creator, the ep, the show runner, who's background producing "an inconvenient truth" was instrumental in the theme of story telling take a listen. >> can you talk about the pitch to apple was this always the preferred platform i just wonder culturally, what led them to back this and what it was like working for them. >> it is for their culture to think about climate, and it is part of their culture to give people tools where they can make changes in their lives and that made me, you know, hopeful that we would wind up there. there should be ten of these shows. there's ten cop shows, ten lawyer shows there can be ten climate change shows. they should all be different there is historical kind of precedent for this kind of story telling. there are people who have

appeared throughout history who have spoken up about things in the world that they wanted to see change just like i think i learned the vietnam war from going to the movies as a kid, for me, this issue is exactly that. we have an obligation to start telling each other the truth about this >> you can watch the entire interview with scott on cnbc.com for the full uncut conversation you can join us for a special livestream on twitter after the show at 12:00 p.m. eastern time. the cast, by the way, meryl streep, david schwimmer, heather graham, tobey maguire. he got everybody to work with him. and he also wrote the screenplay to "contagion" during covid was seen as so impressionist >> why 2037?

was there a specific reason for that date? >> he wanted to make it futuristic but not so much like in 100 years the world is going to be totally different. kind of the things he's describing in the arc of the series are like the day, for example, the final pinot noir grape is grown because climate change has made it impossible. things we can relate to but they're not flying cars in the show, as he would say. >> keeps it accessible. >> it will be interesting to see how it does. time for a cnbc news update with seema mody. >> here's your cnbc news update at this hour one day after house speaker kevin mccarthy met with the country's president in california of taiwan, a u.s. delegation of lawmakers visiting taiwan today led by house foreign affairs committee chairman, michael mccaul the group will meet officials amid growing tensions between washington and beijing representative mccaul says they hope to harden taiwan from the

chinese mainland. the foreign minimum centers of saudi arabia and iran meeting for the first time in seven years. it follows a landmark agreement between the two nations to re-establish diplomatic relations under the mediation of china. iran and saudi arabia are planning to reopen embassies and diplomatic missions with each other. and back in the u.s. democrat robert f. kennedy jr. is challenging joe biden for the democratic nomination in 2024 for the presidential election. the anti-vaccine activist and a member of one of america's most famous political families filed a statement of candidacy on wednesday. he is the nephew of robert -- the late robert jfk, president >> thank you after the break, is costco the canary in the coal mine? for retail. a surprise drop in march sales has investors worried. shares are under pressure. plus, watch airbnb broke below 50 day clawing back some losses this

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some say it's what they were born to do... it's what they live to do... trinet serves small and medium sized businesses... so they can do more of what matters. benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. welcome back a couple hours into trading, let's get post to post with bob pisani and see what's moving. >> getting this goldilocks soft landing thing really right so the bulls want the economy to slow down so the fed will stop raising interest rates but they don't want it to slow down too much because then it will be a severe recession they go back and forth

the stock market goes back and forth playing that game and it's been confusing i want to show you caterpillar, which is the most important stock of the week. this is the lowest we've seen in a few months here. this thing rallied a few weeks ago, 212, went to $230 a couple of weeks ago this week it's down 8%, 9% it's been straight down, essentially on concerns that the global economy won't be as strong as we anticipated here. same thing, the same problem is happening with the techs remember we had this big rally in technology stocks a little while ago. look at salesforce salesforce had a great rally moved to the upside. it was $200 at the close last week $191 it's down 5%, straight down for this week. that's reflecting, again, some concerns maybe the market won't be -- the economy won't be quite as strong. you look at luxury retailers they have the same thing here's tapestry, kate spade, you know that. that's coach near lows of the year. $39.

the stock was $39 a few weeks ago, went to $4 3 on hopes we'll have a soft landing. it's right back down to where it was on fairly low volume today the point here, remember, they sell a lot in china, too they get about 20% of their sales in china the point is, getting the tone right for the soft landing is difficult. that's why the jobs report will be very, very important tomorrow we've had a series of weaker than expected economic numbers that's kind of what's worrying the market maybe soft landing is not going to be as soft as people wanted guys, back to you. >> it's the push of soft versus hard landing, bob. come on over here. get over to the desk >> right over. >> we'll look at some notes catching our eye in our "from the desk" segment. ubs saying costco could be a canary in the coal mine for retail sector slowdown reporting a 1.1% decrease in total comp sales for march ubs does see some upside they expect costco to flex wholesale model and invest in

sharper prices, serving shareholders in the long run you can see shares of costco are down about 2.5% right now. bob, you just did that lickety split. he's already on the desk with us. >> it's a long walk. people don't understand. the room, the 1903 room, one of the best rooms, the most grand room in new york, it will take a minute to get from one end to the other. but it's great to be sitting here with you guys >> what do you think of costco >> i see positive traffic. we heard this from walmart, we heard it from target, from some of the discounters they've got a lot of people buying staples, all these companies. that's the good news bad news is discretionary items. it looks like furniture, electronics are under pressure we've heard this story before, haven't we the crowd concerned about inflation, perhaps the lower end, very concerned getting hit by that. we've seen traffic in department stores not so great. even home depot and lowe's, not so great people aren't buying the discretionary items.

at the same time, you guys talk about this we go out to the restaurants we go traveling. it's packed. i was out last night in new york it was packed. the restaurants are packed so, it's not -- they're not buying discretionary they're not buying discretionary goods as much. but discretionary services seem to be doing well this is hard to pull apart people are tired of buying discretionary goods but they're not tired of going out to restaurants, not tired of traveling yet. this is why the stock market's so confused. you see things going up and down like crazy as people try to sort out this soft landing thesis or lack of a soft landing. >> here's the part i don't get sharper prices sharper prices is what they talk about. sharper prices being lower prices, more competitive prices? >> they're trying to keep the prices as high as possible without getting pushback, without getting the consumer to walk away. that's the game. and certain industries they're

getting pushback they're not getting pushback in travel they're not getting pushback in restaurants. one of my favorite italian restaurants, $44 for a plate of pasta. i called the waiter over, is this a typo? he said, sir, are you aware of the high labor costs then he got indig nent with me i said, i'm sorry, that's a lot for a plate of pasta, $44? even in new york. >> even new york meanwhile, on the regional banks, interesting call out of kbw, they point to discounted valuation, lower commercial real estate exposure. they still lower their target and earnings estimate on lower loan buybacks and loan growth as well as higher deposit expectations they cut pnc, saying it could be a source for other high-quality super regionals. >> don't say that. that's my bank two things stuck out about this

note first, the reason for the downgrade. they anticipate buybacks one company was aggressively buying back stock all the way up to 2020 when a lot of banks stopped their buyback. they were big reducing share count. that's a little interesting. the second thing is one of the reasons they downgrade, they are anticipating lower loan growth here's a big issue it's not just lower demand but the ability to give more loans if the deposit base is actually lower. that's an interesting question i've been joking about my mother in the last month. she calls me from her bank she's amazed she can get 4% on her cds and she wants to take out money and buy two-year treasuries i said, mom, that's why the banks are worried. their profits are going to go down if you take money out and start buying treasuries directly she said, robert, i got 0.3% in my deposits for years and years. i could care less about the banks and their profitability. and she was asking me about buying two-year treasuries when your mother calls and asks about two-year treasuries,

that's a yield top right there. >> points to what bullard was saying we're getting new remarks from jim bullard. let's get to steve liesman. >> jim bullard, st. louis fed president doing a call with reporters saying there's an 85% probability this financial stress you were talking about will continue to abate he says most of the probability in his forecast is on growth slowing somewhat and inflation declining. he thinks all of this can happen without too much trouble in the job market he said it's too soon to tell how much the effect of credit tightening, how big of an effect that will have on the economy. he does not feel credit conditions will tighten enough to send the economy into recession. he says, banks are not intermediating that much of the total finances also if there were a lending pullback, banks say lending remains robust that's interesting what you were talking about. obviously, the banks have issues having to pay more for deposits. if they're able to give loans at

a higher rate, then all is well with their net interest margin but pisani is smarter about that than i am. >> do the banks to want give out loans? >> there you go. >> that's a basic question. >> that's exactly right. >> you are already -- i know we don't have a lot looks like activity, especially where real estate are concerned, have fallen off a cliff. >> i think you and i at 4:30 are reporting on the h41 >> we sure are. >> if money is leaving the banking sector t can leave for two reasons. reason one, it's been leaving, in part, because people are concerned about safety another reason is because the interest rate is higher, for example, at a money market fund or in another -- at another institution. when that money leaves, essentially there's a way to look at it that's a choice of the bank to let it leave why might it do so because it doesn't want to pay up for those deposits and it may not have the loan demand for which it needs the deposit that's the way banking works if you don't have the loans, you

don't need the deposits necessarily so you're happy to see them go if they demand an interest rate that's not profitable for you you might see banks shrinking voluntarily as a result of this because we they don't want to pay for deposits they want the sticky deposits that are there without the bank having to provide them with a toaster. >> indeed. look forward to 4:30, steve. you see you a little later steve liesman today on bullard. after the break, investors re-evaluating warner bros. discovery a year after that merger completed can the stock revisit its pandemic highs right now 70% off the lows nasdaq has gone green. up 20 points back in a moment what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns...

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this saturday marks one year since the $40 billion warner brothers/discovery deal closed stock has fallen since the merger our next guest says the company could be in for a bumpy ride facing headwinds at disney without the theme park cash flow joining us at post 9, "new york times" columnist, cnbc contributor and author of the new amazing book "unscripted," jim stewart with s >> great to be here. >> a lot to get to what kind of bumpy ride could wbd be is it related to debt or something else >> well, it does have a lot of debt that's hovering over and certainly limits its options you know, this past year and this whole business has been so extraordinary that they happen to close this deal first of all, you get a new company like that, you start

opening up the closet doors and all kinds of skeletons were hanging in there from pretty much the disastrous at&t management secondly, the investor sentiment towards the whole industry and particularly streaming dramatically changed i mean, it went from tolerating virtually anything on the spending front to demanding some accountability and some actual profits. and that caused a huge hit to the stock. as you point out, they're up against -- netflix has the biggest number of streaming, huge pockets, amazon unbelievably deep pockets. disney, number three disney has the advantage of very steady and strong cash flow from the theme parks. then you've got them as a distant four that's a tough competitive landscape to be in >> points to the idea across streaming, you want players that have backup, right have reinforcements, have optionality, have family from

legacy businesses that throw off a lot of cash, right >> yeah, absolutely. and, look, warner discovery does have -- they have some very valuable assets. they have some key franchises. they have intellectual property they can exploit and i think david zazlov has a lot of energy and commitment he knows what he's doing there but the cost side of this thing, it's still a nuclear arms race it really seems, no doubt, that the long-term strategy, which is something amazon did in retail long ago, netflix is copying it, is to spend their rivals out of business and they don't really show any signs of letting up. even with the shift in sentiment, which is putting it on maybe a slightly tighter leash. i was just in l.a. this week they're still spending they recognize, i think, that ultimately that's the key to market share look, this is a huge scale business there's no marginal cost to the

added streaming subscriber this is a pure scale thing some say it's going to be winner take all i wouldn't go that far but there are only going to be so many players that survive this. >> you mentioned disney. we saw the leadership shake up in the past week or so with carl mutter of marvel being let go, coming out in a "wall street journal" article saying, no, i was fired. i want your thoughts on all we've seen there and a shareholder meeting to start the week >> well, this whole pearlmuter showed me this are ultimately businesses about people, especially in the entertainment business where we've seen talent relationships are very, very important. soft skills are important, eqs are important. and, you know, i guess -- i'm surprised it didn't happen sooner as he made clear in that interview, which was very interesting, you know, he's not on the same wave length.

he's very cost efficient, a cost cutter that's where he clashed with their creative genius. that put iger -- i guess chapek before him, in a bad position. when he crossed over and -- i use the word flirting with nelson peltz, which got a big reaction out of people, that was a betrayal the board and iger were not going to stand for. >> we talked with jim about it this morning where is the line between cost discipline and the ability to retain creatives who could actually cross the street and go somewhere where they are truly loved, right >> absolutely. and i think that's -- that's something that, again, to mention warner, i think david zaszlov is there, he understands

the importance of those relationships. the talent can go anywhere known of these companies own the talent they hire the talent the talent wants -- they want a big distribution platform. they want the money to create their vision they obviously want to be paid well themselves. that make this is a distinctive and unusual business. >> we used to do stock stuff we used to talk about stock selection. is there a media name you're interested in right now? is paramount interesting in an m&a framework or not >> well, look, warren buffett has a big stake in it. i don't think he's in it because he thinks they're going to be a stand-alone company forever. i think that's a deal play who am i to say warren buffett is wrong it seems to me that the pure stock prices of some of these companies are very low

i mean, warner bros. discovery got down to $10 at one point i was jokingly saying, maybe i should buy that. i think i could raise the money. paramount, it's around, what, $14 or $15 that's way down. these companies are at a huge discount to where they were. and as potential merger partners, they're very enticing. on the other hand, we've got a regulatory environment now where, is the justice department going to stand there and let any of these legacy, big media companies -- like could netflix buy paramount? in some ways it makes a lot of sense, but are they going to stand by and let that happen these are very visible companies in a very politically-fraught environment right now. >> it's good to see you. again, congratulations on the book you've got to read "unscripted." thanks, jim. up next, the spac king only mentioning spac three times in his annual letter that story and more on the

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welcome back social capital trying to explain the meltdown in his portfolio. with deirdre bosa, "tech check." >> efficiency has been the word

of the year. even open door is on the bandwagon. in his annual letter, as we enter a sustained period of nonzero interest rates, discipline of mission must also intersect with discipline of management and operation, efficiency, risk management, business model fundamentals and, most importantly, sustained profitability are must-haves this is a sharp turnaround and he acknowledges that during the days he pitched unprofitable companies to retail investors as spacs. he calls rising rates akin to having cold water thrown in our faces and a look at the performance of his spacs does get that point across. open door, sofi and clover have lost 60% or more of their market value since january of 2022. he has found religion in efficiency and is all in the mathematical truth is it

renders unprofitable companies value less he touches on the private markets and venture capital as well to make a point that we've been making over the past few months as well and that is there's a major revaluation of startups happening we haven't seen markups in ipos and spacs. this really says it all. we call it lala land the best will take their markdowns early. there are discrepancies they can take. >> we were having this conversation in terms of the mismatch where valuations are concerned earlier in the show. dee, given all of this commentary from palihapitiya, does that mean he has changed the way he's investing any updates in terms of what he's investing and how that's

different? >> he does make a big case he's been on this energy bent for a while now. that's where he's looking. really this profitability, he only mentioned spac three times. he mentioned profitability ten times. this is the guy that brought these deeply unprofitable companies to market. like many in the space he has done a turnaround. that's a common theme among many bcs and you could argue they change when the market changes the efficiency bent is not just for zuckerberg >> deirdre bosa, thank you after the break, warehouse inventories are eating away at profits. results of an exclusivcn pp chain survey. ♪

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results. >> reporter: the glut is not going away anytime soon this is important because warehouse costs are passed on to the consumer 36% have said they would expect inventories to return to normal the second half of this year with an equal amount expecting inventories to last until the first half of 20204. one-fifth of excess inventory is unseasonable here is what respondents are telling they're doing with it. slightly more than half said they would keep the items in warehouses another 27% said they're selling on a secondary market. both are impactful to the bottom line as storage is expensive and secondary markets mean mark yuns if the secondary market is not an option, these products are being destroyed. now almost half of those surveyed said the biggest inventory pressures are for inflation, rather, the warehouse costs. the second biggest rent and

labor which is in the other category when asked if they're passing on these costs to the consumer, 64% said yes indicating as much as 50% could hit the buyer. carl, morgan >> lori ann, we are a long way from shortages remember those days? >> mm-hmm. >> sure do >> s&p has gone green in advance of the jobs number tomorrow. let's get to the judge and "the half." carl, thanks so much welcome. i'm scott wapner live from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange front and center this hour, the tough week for tech. nasdaq on track to break its three-week winning streak and all of that as yields fall further on fresh concerns about the state of the economy the investment committee assessing what that means. joining me for the hour joshhal. let's check the markets. carl just told you the s&p getting back positive. the nasdaq is positive as well the dow is trying to get there as well. it's down by just 44