♪♪ ♪♪ good morning we are just 30 minutes away from the government's march job reports with evidence that the labor market might be slowing. today's data is a key piece of the puzzle for the fed as it thinks about interest rates and for investors as they gauge where to put their money we're here with you for the next hour taking you right up to the big number and then breaking down what it means for the markets and your investments a special jobs friday edition of

"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin we're jersey strong. the futures are open so there's a lot happening. and anyone who's not up and anyone who is not at work, you know, money never sleeps, pal. someone famous once said that. futures are open until 9:15 a.m. we'll look at them in just a second yesterday's close was the end of the week for its major averages. the dow had its third positive week in a row since the first time in october. and the nasdaq broke a three-week winning streak. i got a lot of thoughts. let's go to the liesman in a

second but here's where the yields are this morning. let's just remember that remember that 3.3 for a second you see the two-year about 3.8 good morning, how do you do? stocks are as ugly as they've ever been and there's no lipstul lipstick that can be put apparently on stocks it's not news to anyone. remember it used to be kena. why isn't it there are many alternatives why isn't it tama. there are many alternatives. think about this, there's something called an earnings yield that stocks have and that has to be better than what you can get in the 10-year bond. since 2008 it's normally about 3.5 points right now it's as low as it's been, 1.39 percentage points

think about this, this is what struck me. what if the ten-your was cooperating. what if it was 4 >> or 4.1. where it was, by the way, hlikea week ago >> there would be no premium whatsoever by one metric stocks are more expensive and less attractive relative to bonds than they've been in like 15 years. >> it like do you think the bond market is correct, right >> i think the way it fixes itself is maybe stocks come down a little bit but also yields come down and bonds become more attractive >> as more people want to find the safety there, the yield, call it what you want, as people pile into that, the yields are going to come counsel. >> what's worrisome today is we've been sort of teasing us,

the economy is teasing us that maybe the labor market is slowing a little what if it's not we've had some unbelievable big numbers. >> what would happen you think stocks go down >> yes >> then the fed's got nestor and everybody, jamie dimon everybody saying we're wrong, don't have to go higher, that makes nestor and dimon right it's going to happen in two and a half hours at 8:30 >> no, no, no, no. we're here late. >> what was that >> that was called let there be light. >> it was my whole clock it's all messed up >> it's beautiful, though. these are decent, civilized hours. >> it was nice let's get to our senior economic reporter, steve liesman, who has

been listening in. can you make stocks any better without using that phrase lipstick on a pig, steve >> i can't, joe. stocks are having to compete with zero interest rates for a long time but i think it's going to be better they're looking for a job market to cool but i would suggest not by enough to keep the fed from further rate hikes if the consensus is right, 238 off 311. unemployment rate seen unchanged at 3.6 that's kind of a fair to middle number, not too hot and should bring down hourly wages to 4.3%. the nation adds workers so job

growth keeps the labor market tight. other job indicators we've had do back up the cooling that is forecast, but they're still pretty warm. adp at 145,000 that's above the hundred thousand we're talking about wages. job openings in february 2 million job openings have disappeared since the peak a year ago and the challenger layoffs are elevated, 270,000 in the first quarter. they're forecasting job losses immediate forecasts for the unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% this year while it hikes to and maintains that 5.13% funds rate as joe was talking about, the market thinks the fed has this

all wrong. it sees the fed hike in another quarter point and quickly reversing, a quarter point built into the futures market by august, another by the fall and a final one in december. so if the market is going to be right about this, its outlook needs to be confirmed and be confirmed soon that would mean slower job growth beginning today and sl sl slower -- the question is whether the number is enough to affirm the market forecast for a retreating fed i think we have a long way to go before the affirmation comes >> i thought of all kinds of scenarios. i thought about a really hot number they i thought what if something happens all at once. what if it was way below what people thought then the fed would come out and

say this is new data for us. yeah, when we see something like this, we're at least going to take a step back but then i'd id feel bad for the fed. they would have stayed a transitory too long and their forecasting ability about this would be just awful. confirmed it was awful >> i don't think you should feel bad for the fed, joe >> if they get it wrong, in and out, however you want to ka characterize it. >> they're going to be under pressure no matter what. >> i've come to the conclusion about the fed is that we pay them to be in a box. they're always in a box. they're making a risk management decision and that is that it's better to err on the side of doing too much to stop inflation than too little. they have said that repeatedly

and they're going to have to own the mistake if they do it, but i think they'll live with the mistake if they do it, joe, because they've made a risk management decision. >> what you said yesterday they weren't going to fire until they basically see the whites in inflation's eyes it's not enough to show in the jobs numbers unless you're talking 4% people who understand them, i'm hearing it from more and more places. >> if they got to take all this abuse, we don't pay them enough. a scar joke can make 25 million in a movie i just don't think it's fair >> you know who else gets paid to be in a box us >> they should always be in a place where it's difficult for them to make a decision. that's part of the game here

and you have to make the call on this i asked bullard in a call with reporters, i i said what do you need to see? he said i'm going to use forward data, i'm going to use current data i'm not going to rely on one thing. he was pretty definitive the banking situation is going to go away and it's not going to keep them from hiking rates. >> they're begging us to go, steve. we have three hours of stuff and only an hour to say it in. >> we usually say four hours of stuff in three hours >> we'll be back with steve in a little bit we want to bring in the lead economist for zip recruiter and rand guyad rand, you have seen interesting data that tells you that there is some slack returning to the labor market what are you seeing in your own

numbers? all indications that the job market is slowing down job seekers are also staying put. i think it's looking like another goldie locks report, just like the one we saw last month. job openings are likely going to show up maybe at a lower rate than what we saw in february but i don't see a lot of signs of inflationary pressure coming from those jobs because there are a lot of good things on the supply side of the labor market. we know immigration flows are improving and we do see people coming back to the labor market. i think this is always going to bring supply and demand back in a better balance and hopefully we'll put less push on the wage growth rates >> what about the data at zip recruiter? does that match that story line? >> absolutely.

job openings and growth support are normalizing right now. however, we're seeing key industries where the demand for laboris strong they look at the other transactional data from tsa, we're seeing the same trend. just like the last one if we see a strong number today, it will be influenced by strong gains and health care. but as far as the wages are concerned, i think we're going to see further softening if there is a big number today, if the rate further this month, it won't be a big concern for the federal reserve. >> if they are seeing places of strength like hospitality, are there other areas of weakness? we keep hearing about layoffs in

like tech and financials >> the media sector has showed down by 50% according to our data at linked in compared to last year. and we see slowdown in the finance sector and a few other sectors. but we, it's still historically low. i think we're still in a good place and i i don't think this is going to trigger a major massive layoff like the one we saw in the 2020 pandemic or the financial crisis 2009. >> you think it's not going to put as much pressure on the fed. what would be a surprising thing that would really catch you off guard and make you think that that's not the case, that there is some time for maybe putting on the brakes? >> if we see the wage growth accelerating again

and that might come from the service sector and we know that because part of these issues coming from the services station the labor force rate is going up there are more and more people coming into the workforce. we're seeing the labor shortage. the hospitality and other service have stri, the target job seekers do not have a college degree and you look especially with people who do not have a college degree over 25 years old, that. >> we want to thank you both we appreciate it >> okay. we got so much more coming up. what a big hour ahead. jobs in the tech sector. a few things on this morning's

top business headlines tesla cutting u.s. prices between 2 and about of%. the chief technology operator said they plant to produce ten new battery electric vehicles. new battery electric vehicles. an you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? production in the wake of climbing prices. we'll be back with the jobs number in just a bit that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning so far tech companies are leading the way, leading 102,931 job cuts, 38% of all staff reductions joining us is bradley tusk, co-founder and ceo of tusk ventures bradley, it's sort of remarkable because the job market has held up as well as it has, yet it's juxtaposed against the headlines i just read. the real question i think is are those things at odds or are they together >> no, i think they're a little bit at odds. there's the reality that we're living in, which is not great

for an economic standpoint but also not terrible and then there's the fear and perception of what's to come as reasonable people are to be worried about it and prepare and plan in advance. the one thing i worry a little bit is companies doing the layoffs are thinking about gross numbers and not human consequences if they literal can't afford the people, that's one thing if it's purely all preparing for the scenario, there are a lot of lives in the balance to be careful of >> is it that or the eli phenomenon they came and said, look, it works. maybe we're all overemployed i hate saying that

>> it's something to apply all that experience to all other technical to me seems a little specious my hope is when they do their plans, it turns ot, are the management all there they should be fired you have to have somewhat accurate projections as to what you think the business will be like >> when you think of your portfolio company, you have a will the of ren tur. >> yeah. i think one of the lessons we've learned in the venture downturn in the last year and a half,

this we live in a world with too much gloom or the only thing that matters is just preverving one way to frrnl whatever they're hearing on tv or reading on twitter and that's not actual economics. we have portfolio companies that have had to do riffs and those are unfortunate. there are others who are continuing to hire but either way, our do and -- >> talk about rational, how you're thinking about -- we're about to talk about the jobs number but we're really talking about what the future going to

do and therefore what happens to capital and the like >> we are assuming that the fed is going to to keep krajinas and we are asking our portfolios to season as much as possible and thos in, with all of that said, we're still not telling them, hey, just fire a, we want to make sure if in three years the market's never million and actual pleasing company. >> so how concerned are you that this gets turned over? >> i am. >> are you concerned the fed will reduce the recession or is

there don't have to feel all that ration. it seems incredible all these brilliant companies couldn't estimate what their actual reasonable. >> she's all induced by the speds and lay, if and companies keep laying off more and more people respectively as a result, then that receipts the recession. >> bradley, we got to run. 20 seconds in the venture universe, where do folks move their on o rchlts you know, specific cb is making a little bit of a comeback wreechl and i wouldn't count them out just yet. >> okay. bradley, great to see you. appreciate it. thank you.

becky? >> okay. i'm still pros egging that but when woo come become. stay tuned you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc and we have a big number coming up in just a few minutes.

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welcome back weep are just seconds away from the march employment report. the stock market might be closed but we have the futures and bond futures. we needed to be here and see what all the reaction is there the equity futures all in the red slightly this morning. and morning importantly let's look at the 10-year, 2-year. time for the report. rick santelli, what's the number >> yes, the march jobs report everybody's expecting. i'm monitoring the wires and here it comes, expecting 250 non-farm yobs, 23 of and if you consider manufacture and then the 4,000 to 5,000 many

were spectator being the 3.5 3.5. the best it's been or the lowest i think it been was 3.3, up 0.3 on average rop will you. and if you take a longer view, year over year on average roolg but that's okay. expectations, 0.4 lighter than the review mirror at 4.6 and 4.2 is the lowest postbank that is significant skim if you look at the after rk that's one-tenth lighter than ek

peks taking and within be pent laterer, but many employers probably don't feel like they need to overwork or get more out of every wrorker because it's moe labor force participation, this is a biggie, huge 42.6, 62.6, which is exactly twhrks and 63.3 and february just befof keb kbsk 6.7 follows 6 the 8. the best and being. >> tiger >> that was in december the 15s months of last year. the interest rates, the tash market is open too frngs but.

>> frnlt it's the markets that are going to be thin nchls this report is generally about farjs the two-mont revision was worth 17,000. we took away 17,000. and if we put this i don'tin, if my feeling is the fed ought to be paying a lot more attention to some of the issues that may be showing snrks and i don't mean to take too much time we're seeing reinvestigations hetd so last month's $311,000 now moves to $326,000 which means

boston flchls a little move in the futures, they went from red to green a little bit. and you are seeing the ten-year particular higher in reelds pope it going from it it at thatit -- we're still down a dozen base it points from you, too >> right >> and if you look a at two-year tote, ed frm we want to let sure stand there. >> let's get to our jobs panel for instant reaction sec neiko securities of american chief economist. betsy stephenson, university of

michigan professor and former moment of i know our guests are working with steve, it really is, you new york if it it they did not happen it wasn't one of those shockers either way that was about 6,000 above the estimate >> joe, there's a little piece of it that makes he m fvgs that's because if you just to the private aektor, it was if. >> they were down at 145 47,000 jobs added from government about half of that was local education and half of gaft

the other aspect of this is that you had the leisure and hospital high pressure. that's a stillor that's still striving to get back to where it was before the pandemic. we saw retail sales 9 bus, construction down brk finally going on in the job market right now as opposed to jackson zbrrks did they think had it anything to do with you before they finally left >> i think that may have stopped. the silliness may have it. >> it was hoarding that was taking place at that big company, right >> exactly exactly. i'm just going to say on the surface not as trong as it apercent that's disinflationary.

so i think this is a better report for the fed than it appears on the headline numbers. >> bellcy do you >> the last point was one i was definitely going to make the fed needs to soming into, if picture jik sfwrechlk and that's where we sfrk we've gotten older as a country since the pandemic started. getting back to our old labor force participation right, our people 25 to 54 is well above where it was prior to the pandemic and that has been driven by women. so it was thrilling to see male labor force here and in terms of the government jobs, you know, the thing is

that we have not seen a recovery in government jobs as of last month for every hundred men who worked in the public sector before the pand pandemic we only of 97 men and for every hundred women, and where are the jobs in the slowest sectors, leisure, hospitality, education and health services. >> joe, the disconnect between what the fed says and where the bond market has been, does this number confirm that the bonds were on to something or are

both -- or can the fed and bonds still be right no one snows still >> no one knows still. the economy is bending, labor market is certainly slowing. you're seeing that the claims numbers are important. supply is increasing as labor supply is slowing. the next thing we have to focus on is the cpi. it was sort of a more or less as consensus report, the private number that steve mentioned being under 200,000 is noteworthy we continue to slow. the market now is going to debate, joe, whether it's 25 or nothing at the may meeting again we're at this fulcrum. the market and stars are still sort of in the same zip code >> a lot of people would settle

for that binary choice one more time or none. there's people that think they're going five, six more times. >> no, they can't go that much, not what the curve is telling us and not what's happening on the bankers side the senior loan on the 8th will be very poimportant. the data should be very significant. it should tell us where we're going and it has to tighten with the regional banks >> who wants in? betsy? >> let me throw some information out and you guys can talk about it rick i'm sure wants to jump in i'm seeing this as meaning more fed. we went into this with the january 24 fed funds contract with the applied yield of 419. right now i see it at 432. the odds of a december -- i'm sorry, a rate hike at the next

meeting in may had been 55% and now it's 70% obviously it's a very volatile market but ultimately the market is leaning a little bit towards a bit more fed even though it's still sort of out of sync with the fed when it comes to the year end the gap is 80 basis points now between where the fed thinks it's going to be year end and where the market is. that's tightened a little bit this morning >> let me just jump in and say it's just an overreaction to the amount of news that's in this report we did not think we were going to all of a sudden see the labor market tank this month what we expect to see is a slowdown in the labor markets. and as long as that slowdown is also happening in conjunction, as steve said, with rising labor force participation, the fed is getting exactly what it needs. so i don't see this report at all as bad for the fed i think it shows that the fed is

working and a soft landing rem >> i always chuckle about the soft landing does anybody think the volatility and nervousness over the banking sector and all the odds still out there, it will never qualify in my world as a soft landing now, is it going to be horrible or not horrible i think is the issue. i'll commit heresy here, i don't think it matters whether the fed does one more quarter or not i think the investors have the issue in front of them now is two-fold don't understand estimate how important that glide path alteration is. in my mind, it's trying to determine how the office -- a

bouncer after the flight to safety, i think that's why yields are up here and a thin market i think on monday when we come into a full entourage of traders, you'll see it's not the case i really do believe that the important issue here is without a doubt labor force participation and the shrinkage of the work week, even though it hasn't made a new extreme. it's tied or very close to previous extremes at 34.4. and finally, when it comes to interest rates, why do i say the market's already made up its mind the fed, we can talk about it, it's kind of fun because we were over 4.25. look where we are now. really the markets have spoken. >> great all succinct, perfect for an

hour-long show thanks to joe. confused for a second. joe, betsy, steven, rick and i'm thanking myself, becky, as i do many times >> and i'll thank you for a good job. and andrew >> thanks. >> up next, the ceo of the national urban league and formerly new orleans mayor mark marial, the state of the consumer and much more be sure to join us on monday morning. we start at 6 a.m. eastern time. allianz's chief economic officer and kevin hassett will be reacting to the markets on that day. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to a special jobs edition of "squawk box. the jobs report coming up as expected, the question is whether it's a goldilocks number joining me on where this all goes the president and ceo of the national urban league and former mayor of new orleans. it's great to see you this morning. >> it's great to see you >> we're all trying to figure out how to think about this

number we're putting it in the context of what the fed is going to do about inflation. i'm curious as a former mayor how you think about the scrooge of inflation versus wages and labor right now. >> well, you know, good morning. great to be with you i think that the idea between inflation and wage increases and how you look at the two is a comparison we want inflation and wages but we want it to keep pace with the increase and what people have to pay out or we want it to outpace slightly what people have to pay out. the difficulty is when consumer -- the consumer price index and what people have to pay for housing and food and basic necessities.

>> in terms of commune -- it's unlikely to get the fed -- they have not had to do that. that's been the surprising part of all this. >> you know, andrew, i always thought that using joblessness as a tool against inflation is cruel and unusual. so far, the fed has managed to raise interest rates, and we've got continued job growth in the economy. i always think that we're in a new normal some of what we thought about in terms of economic theory from the 20th century may not hold true in today's global economy it's good that there continues to be a demand for workers, but here is one of the challenges. we've got maybe a million more job openings than we have people looking for work so long term, that's going to continue to put pressure on the

labor market it's going to be better for workers. but it's also a challenge as all of these new investments from infrastructure and the c.h.i.p.s. bill enter the economy. we have to make sure there's continued investment in skilling workers, preparing workers and getting them ready for jobs in the future. >> i was thinking about it this morning. all the dislocations we've seen, the crisis in the banking sector, that's going to be a credit crunch coming it's already starting. that credit crunch is going to mean the people who need the loans the most aren't going to be able to get it. you're going to be able to get a loan if you don't need one, basically. anybody trying to buy a house for the first time, trying to get into a car, those are going to be the loans that will be incredibly expensive inflation hurting people hurting people the most to the credit crunch hurting the very same

people. >> i'm very concerned when it comes to home ownership and cac ses to capital and concern about when it coombs to access to capital for small businesses, particularly businesses owned by people of color and indeed women. so is the challenge for the policymakers, how to tame inflation without using unemployment or placing excessive burdens. people ask me, is inflation worse than unemployment. i'll tell you, the worst thing is not having a job, not having money coming in. we don't want inflation, but we've got to make sure that as inflation is, if you will, confronted, that the burden does not get placed on the least of those on the working americans, on americans who are struggling yet every day to make ends meet. >> marc, finally we've been talking about this banking crisis, becky referencing it earlier. is it your sense that it's over? is it not?

how do you think politically the american public looks at that? >> i think the american public seeing it as a warning sign. the question is the regulatory environment correct. looking at and great concerns about changes made in the trump years to excuse certain banks from stress tests, that's got to be re-evaluated. however, the other sierd of it is is we don't want to put a disproportionate regulatory burden on small banks, community banks -- >> because that would be inflationary on the other end. >> it's always a calibration, but we've got to look at silicon valley bank and say was the mistake in the board room? was it with management in terms of that, so more to come i do think the actions by the regulators quickly made a good difference >> marc, we appreciate you being here on jobs friday with us. thank you. >> thank you, andrew

early read on the markets for next week, including the kickoff of earnings season stay tuned you're watching"squawk box" on cnbc like removing that tattoo of your first wife's name. inspire. learn more and view important safety information at inspiresleep.com.

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welcome back to "squawk box"

everybody the march employment report shoend a gained of 236,000 jobs last month and showed unemployment dropped to 3.5% from 3.6%. joining us for the market impact ahead o of the next week's bank earnings, stephanie link from hightower advisers, a cnbc contributor. steph, what do you think this knee-jerk reaction to the futures was slightly positive. what do you think this means >> i think the number was very consistent with what we have been seeing over the last year, year and a half. services, the strength, leisure hospitality have great numbers versus goods which have declining numbers. i don't think it's really surprising that being said, wedidn't get great data this week on jobs it's still healthy, but it's slowing. j.o.l.t.s., adp, four-week

average in initial claims moving in the opposite direction. i think all of this points to a slowing in addition to some of the other data we've gotten, this week pmis, isms, factory orders, et cetera. that's what the fed wants. they want us to slow down. unfortunately the job market is still so strong that they're going to continue probably to hike i think they're going to go 25 in may, especially if you look at the inflation numbers, especially the core pce number at 4.6%, still pretty high for them so solid today, but i don't think it changes much. >> if anything, people were looking for weakness to think that maybe that would get the fed to say we'll wait but look around if you were looking at average hourly wage, 0.3%, a bigger gain than the month before. the inflationary component not there. good news for the economy probably, that it's not falling off a cliff at least according to these numbers which may or may not be outdated. if you're looking for the relief from the fed, you're not going

to get it, a greater chance of them hiking rates. how do you think that plays when the market is actually open and full the futures are open but close at 9:15 this morning and probably lightly traded. >> i don't think it changes what we've been seeing for the last month, becky which is more defensive sectors have done well, growth has done well we've seen what technology has done look at consumer staples versus discretionary. i think that trend is going to continue because you know when the economy slows, slow growth actually is a positive for growth stocks and more defensive stocks, steady earners, steady free cash flow and that sort of thing. i think maybe the market doesn't have a huge reaction i do think that you're going to see the rotation underlying the market continue with what we have been seeing. >> joe started the show pointing out the lead story for the "wall street journal" saying stocks are over dlooes priced relative to bonds to the greatest extent

seen since when, joe >> 2007. >> looking at that comparison, steph, what do you do with your holdings at this point >> i'm kind of doing what the market has been telling us to do over the last month, and that is a little bit more of a balanced portfolio. so instead of going overweight and big sector bets, i'm not doing that i'm keeping it close to the vest, if you will, and having this barbell some of the staples, some of the utility companies, some technology as well, versus i also own some of the banks, for example. we've talked about that, because they are so cheap. we're going to get some information next week, so that will be interesting. i also think there are pockets within industrials, especially aerospace and defense sector i think there are some power pricing stories and materials. i still like energy, too i kind of have a balance. >> stephanie, thank you very much always good to see you, stephanie link

let's take one more look at the futures on this. you saw the futures were trading higher if you're just waking up, unemployment report came out 3.5% versus 3.6% jobs 236,000. that does it for utoy.s da but make sure you join us on monday, everybody. have a great weekend >> happy easter. - irene silverman, 82 years old, last seen july 5th, 1998. - irene lived on the upper east side. she's worth a lot of money. now she's missing. - the disappearance of a wealthy socialite grips a nation... - this was the largest search that i have ever participated in by far. - and new york detectives stop at nothing to find her. - the investigation is in full swing. everyone is riveted to this case. - but the city faces a case that has never been tried and won. - there was no body. this was an uphill battle.

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