it's not going to be at zero forever. you go 10, 20, rates go up that's where we are. you here tomorrow? >> yep >> see you tomorrow. >> look at the smile on her face so happy to be here. >> join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." premarket a little soggy here even with yields lower the jobs number under our belt we'll get inflation data we begin with the macro backdrop stocks and investors looking at the jobs numbers exxon eyeing this mega deal.

tesla cutting prices again, the fifth time since january let's begin with the markets kicking off a new week jim, i want your take on what you thought on the print on friday >> i thought the print looked like on the surface that things are cooling a little bit wages are down a little bit, not -- i mean the -- i'm sorry, the advance of wages don't have the same rate. there was a bloomberg story that caused me to shutter commercial lending fell by nearly $105 billion the last two weeks of march huge chunk for small banks what was the cadence of that report maybe it went down like this travel and leisure is still below where it was in 2019 that's kind of where people are going out still. they're not buying things.

i'm beginning to wonder whether there wasn't something at a regional bank that said we got to be careful how much we lend let's say people take the money and put it in t bills or money funds. we may not have as much to lend and we don't want the bank examiners saying, how could you be so cavalier when the bank examiners were cavalier out west, we were all in trouble. >> kpmg on svb just a couple weeks before the collapse pointing out somethings, but not the things. >> no. the things are -- we have banks that are stressed. how about if you're a major regional bank and they'll come in and say, listen, we have to be sure if you have to do the maturity issues that you won't be silicon valley bank you would halt you want to continue to loan, but you also say, i don't want

to be the next bank that's sanctioned because the money will flow right now. i want to know the cadence of the employment number. if it was good, good, good and then -- then should affect the thinking it makes me think what was loretta mester looking at? you don't want key people in the federal reserve to not acknowledge this bloomberg piece, 105 billion commercial bank deposits fell by $64 billion. that's a case of, well, we don't want to keep all our money with one bank i worry more about that. i know that it's not -- the jamie diamond interview, it's not 2007, 2008 i'm saying can you keep raising in an atmosphere where you see a decline in lending

>> jamie diamond talk to cnn, he says if there are more bank failures, they'll be resolved. i think we're getting to the end of this particular crisis. to your point about the lending data, biggest push of lending. >> i think a lot of people who are used to saying go look at the accounting of how you did that day, or above how you did minute to minute, would these people be saying -- would they be as pro more rate hikes when the numbers clearly show you got a pause. >> here or can you go may? >> i think you have to pause here i think these numbers were shocking to me you got to find out whether things get back to normal quickly or whether things get worse because you know there are

a lot of examiners who could lose their job about what happened mary daily is going to be under scrutiny in san francisco. i feel like, wait a second, if i were the fed, i would say we're seeing data that indicates there's a big decline in lending. so we have to wait a bit versus putting a knee-jerk increase at the end of the crisis, it was first republic was saved and everything is good that seems a little bit -- i'm not calling for a general custard annihilation >> they're suspending some preferred dividends. >> if i were in there, i would say, now i don't get the preferred money -- they have the ability to go to the bank window and sell i also think that it's a deposit

situation. it's not a credit situation. it's deposits. i don't see the big investors come in and make it so you want to stay the course. >> will it make a difference to you this week if the inflation numbers run hot? would you be saying maybe they got to do one more >> that's the problem, carl. we're still not -- wages are not down where they were if the federal reserve is committed to deflation and not to just seeing what happens, they're going to do what i think is wrong i'm only focusing on the bank lending the last two weeks when you have the lowest bank lending since the federal reserve has been keeping numbers, when i think about the hawks in the fed, i would like them to say, we need to look at the lending.

maybe the lending is going to dry up i'm doing some work and this is the incumbent's ball who is going to challenge the incumbents if nobody can get new money? >> two pieces of good news, used cars, down 1.5 on the year, that's going to help >> it's certainly going to help. i have to dispute these ford -- there's numbers saying ford is cutting the price on the lightning. it's not like that take ford off the table. say manheim goes down. you take conagra, a food company, they're not raising we have albertson's. there's some knee jerk -- cpi may not be as week as we need.

doesn't lending benefit business formation. we haven't seen the cutoff in business information i'll tell you what i'm working on i'm working on the california thesis california is seeing -- we saw it from costco, not that good. consolation has a lot of california businesses. they weren't talking up california because the weather was bad. look at walmart. a lot of these guys aren't breaking up california california may be weaker and it's the fifth of the country, from the storms and banking. we have to see that bounce back. it's a great time to say we have to reassess, but we'll come on hard if wages don't come -- that's a perfectly reasonable statement. nobody is saying that's easy on inflation. what it's saying is we have to be sure our work is not putting us in a big downturn we don't want banking/lending to

go off the cliff like this that means that anybody who already has a business does great and anybody to challenge a business is going to fail. >> we got decent net inflows of s schwab if you look at google searches, people are pulling in less on banks. >> i did a lot of work on schwab they have a lot of sticky assets the idea that schwab is going to have this outflow to fidelity, schwab is a good company. >> it's the highest margin in their history. >> i don't want to say schwab is a buy. the financials are not where they want to be. the raid on schwab has to end. it was a raid. i would come back and say are the customers fleeing?

the customers were clearly not fleeing. i think the franchise is being undervalued by a lot of people they have a huge number of registered advisers and that business is -- the regular business is driven i remember -- goldman won't knowledge it i made a presence years ago that they should buy schwab. >> part of your business development side business? >> i wasn't working at the network at the time. i thought schwab is good then schwab went down in value now it's funny you look at schwab and think maybe they should have bought goldman. >> speaking of m and a, the journal says that exxon had talks with pioneer on shale. no formal process here

>> he's got a conference in june, of which scott is the key note now, we get some differing ages whether he's 70 or 71. young. you have to understand that this stock traded at 287. it's not like sheffield is going to say i'll sell for 240 it's going to have to be a three handle the idea it's only a 12 is daunting to me i've been behind scott forever, but you have to understand, he's not going to sell for less than traded at. they have a huge amount of cash. they can't do the buyback they would like given the fact that washington is all over them. 600,000 per day, these guys are some people say a $15 all-in cost no somebody will say it's $15, but

let's call it 20 the company is making a huge amount of money. scott is very committed. thinks the stock is undervalued. why would he say -- the stock was at this level not that long ago. >> interesting we'll get econico investor day wednesday. b of a has some charts that they say argues inflation one is saying how crude is not responding to the cutbacks we're getting. >> i thought that was surprising i thought it would go to 90. i thought china was kicking in i also say that at 80 pioneer is worth a substantial amount more because they make so much money. exxon's stock is doing great exxon needs more permeate. that's a nice bump for them if they got it.

i truly believe that pioneer is worth substantially more than it's selling, particularly with how well exxon is doing. >> ft had a chart last week if you took brett at 85 and adjusted for inflation, in 2018 you would be low 70s oil is cheap right now. >> oil is cheap. i don't know why it doesn't figure in the basket of what the fed is thinking. everything from -- we had this great piece about why these retailers are undervalued. cotton down and oil down these are -- they're kind of metaphors, natural gas bills are down clothing is not increasing in price. supermarket is still an issue. wages, you've got -- i'm so afraid mester wants to see people getting pay cuts. people are making $1 million at

meta, well, wow, you're fired. >> pay cuts at mcdonald's. >> are all take-outs equal no meta is paying five months severance. tesla cutting prices again look at the premarket, a lot on top, starting out on a weak note more "squawk on the street" after the break. how far we take an idea is a question of willpower. because progress... is a matter of character. - psst! susan! with paycom, employees do their own payroll. - what's paycom? a magic payroll genie?

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their losses for the month the company slashing prices. tesla planning a new factory in shanghai jim, these price cuts are not driving enough demand. >> obviously you don't do price cuts if you have an increase in demand ford, the mach e, maybe they have to do cuts. when you go back to what steven shear said, he's buying all the teslas he can. that's a fleet buy it makes me think why do they have to cut if hertz would buy

it hertz wants its fleet to be heavy in electric. the number of cars he's making is big maybe kind is still competitive. that's what i worry about, china. >> he certainly can take the pain better than others. that's what the street would argue. the other thing is the epa looking to get tighter on tail pipes because they want half of new evs -- half our new cars to be evs this is why ford and gm, their stocks are solo. >> ford make a fortune on the f-150. is this going to go away is their union jobs -- it's hard to switch. there's very few parts in the ev versus the -- this looks bad for ford i like ford very much.

you don't want ford squeezed on ice and squeezed on evs. >> it's the jonas playbook, the pain involved in navigating away from that business. >> at times i've made a shot at jonas, but i think he's the most right. i want ford to succeed, but you have this -- they'll have to cut unless they say, listen, our demand is extraordinary. wow, i mean, they have to -- they need prices higher to make the transition last time tesla lowered and the buyers came back and then they raised them again. it's not -- he's got the ability because of his unique system -- he can rise. it's very hard for ford to do it he's a very smart guy. he may be saying i don't like the drum beat of 600,000 ford cars going out i don't like that progression.

that's smart he's not going to admit it he won't even acknowledge ford has the car. >> he's busy at twitter. >> he has a lot on his plate when we come back, we'll get cramer's mad dash. don't go anywhere. (seth) and when i switched, i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. not bragging. (cecily) you're bragging. (neighbor) oh, he's bragging. (seth) who, me? never. oh, excuse me. hello, your royal highness, sir... (cecily) okay, that's a brag. (seth) hey, mom. i gotta call you back. (vo) switch and choose the phone you want, like the incredible iphone 14, on us. (cecily) on the network worth bragging about. (vo) verizon

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>> i think even with micron at 60 to 61 it doesn't take into account the enormity of the

decision of samsung. the problem -- now the stock did jump last quarter. the problem was clear. you could not get an inventory glut across the entire portfolio until samsung blinked and s samsung did the opposite and they were flooding the zone because they didn't care as much about profits. all that has changed now doesn't mean you should buy lamb or prime material this was a clearing event right here where you're going to say, you know what, we are done with the glut of deramps. when you're done with the glut, here you are that's where this stock should be heading now they were adamant to me that, you know what, jim -- this is historic.

as long as samsung is pumping them out, it's hard. i felt samsung didn't play fair. a lot of times when you get a company like samsung, they're not looking at gross marchgmarg. they're looking to hire people if they don't care about m markets and pcs are down 37%, you're never going to get a bot >> apple down 40, dell down 30 hp looked good >> yeah, but down. samsung was not considering the sales. they were making the same amount whether sales wiere up if micron doesn't have the gross margin problem, then you're at the beginning of another big move of micron and you should buy it a lot of people are saying this thing is dead in the water

this stock has a history of finishing last in the s&p or at the top. we just had last if you get glut's over, boom buy micron on this level we wish we did >> good call we'll talk more about chips in the framework of the broader tech rally going on. opening bell coming up you can catch us any time, anywhere, listen to and follow the s"squawk on the street" opening bell podcast ♪♪ alex! mateo, hey how's business? great. you know that loan has really worked wonders. that's what u.s. bank is for. and you're growing in california? -yup, socal, norcal... -monterey? -all day. -a branch in ventura? that's for sure-ah. atms in fresno? fres-yes. encinitas? yes, indeed-us.

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they are not superior to the people of florida. come hell or high water we're going to make sure that that policy of florida carries the day and so they can keep trying to do things, but ultimately we're going to win on every single issue involving disney, i can tell you that. >> that's florida governor ron desantis on cnn thursday taking aim at disney telling people to buckle up, jim, that they'll

consider maybe new taxes, new tolls on roads that lead to disney. >> bob iger talks about how he's anti-business. i think he wasn't strong enough in this. if you had a radical democrat, the likes of let's say -- i don't think senator warren is radical. a lot of people do she would put taxes on hotels and she would put tolls on bridges. that's what you do if you're a left-wing politician desantis, maybe he's trying to appeal to the radical left maybe he has a shot with that. he can be all sorts of stuff and personal, but he's clearly in league with -- let's call sanders. i bet senator sanders -- he's a reasonable man, but he wants big hotel taxes. desantis has pivoted dramatically he's pivoted to not getting the nomination

iger can press his bets. he can say i don't favor that kind of tax, but maybe he's -- i was against this >> we'll see how disney responds we got some "star wars" and "indiana jones" stuff over the weekend. we'll talk more about media in a second let's get to the new york stock exchange and the opening board. at the big board it's taylor morrison >> housing is critical the land on housing dash there's too many people that say housing isn't where it should be i would say do you know how hard it is to break the zoning? in pennsylvania where there's absolutely a fantastic franchise, everybody -- all the municipalities are trying to keep toll brothers out

they're a responsible building if you have every municipality saying, wait a second, it's hard for a home builder to say full speed ahead. they should be building more homes. the supply chain just got better look at that east companies are -- their stocks are up. i think the fed would say, why is that? i think everything they put up gets bought. >> spring is coming. it's actually here the selling season we'll see if the seasonality is stronger. >> i totally agree the gen-x and gen-y, when you speak to anybody at american express or the home builders, they're saying there's a whole new generation desperate to get out of the house they've been in the house for a long time.

those people are natural home buyers they're waiting for supply. >> apollo with a great chart on the pace of immigration in this country. we're getting back to a prepandemic trend, which is part of the reason why the labor force is relatively stronger the prime age of employment age is back to code. >> i always hate to generalize because you don't want to say this is who would work in a restaurant we did a lot of work in our restaurants to say who will take certain jobs we're willing to hire people, white collar people who have been incarcerated, perfectly willing to anybody that came in. we cease to get immigrants i feel a lot of it was the fear in the previous administration, that we would be forced to ask them for documentation because of our payroll processer this is great. i think our country is back.

i'm still waiting about the millions of people who want to go to china. i see a lot more people who would like to come here. latin america produces a terrific workforce that's a god send for -- that's what powell needs. he needs people. we have a big minimum wage increase in a lot of places minimum wage means nothing when you're trying to find a dish washer. >> you mentioned china sea drills in the south china sea. the degree to which france -- how will they handle a crisis situation regarding taiwan >> i don't know. i know speaker mccarthy didn't care about xi when he decided to have a meeting i think you've got a destroyer in there it's time. it's time for the u.s. to

recognize that's wehere the flet needs to be. it won't be by military. they could influence politics there. if you ask me what is the existential threat to the world, it's them realizing, wow, we don't have the -- they don't have the h-100 how about doing their testing of the a-100? that's like saying we'll do a two cylinder car against -- >> that stuck in your craw. >> i was upset about that. it showed the -- some of my friends who aren't in the business were saying sounds like they've caught up. the h-100, if you're xi, you say i can't do the things i want asmlf, i can't build the chips i need we could starve their military, although it's a bit of a numbers

game they're there. we're here we don't start projecting power in the old fashion way of demonstrating, listen, you will not -- it will be against the u.s. if you attack taiwan. that's not been our position then i think there's going to be another way the chinese will try to take over taiwan. they need taiwan taiwan is making far more advanced -- when you talk to invideo, they just design. taiwan is so radically lower cost than anything we do in this country, that taiwan is truly at the heart of our semi conductor industry speaker mccarthy understands how important this is. >> it's a hole we've dug for ourselves. >> when intel used to make

things here, we were so inexpensive, but you can't make the profit margins you can make over there it's interesting that the land researches are going down. that's in reaction to samsung, not taiwan. >> micron is the biggest s&p gainer western dij is in there too. >> they have some memory, big memory and, wow, that's good to see. the south koreans cut back on everything it's great for western dij some of these tech companies are selling 5, 6 times earnings. this is my thesis. maybe we're too -- now we do have jamie dimon talking about the republic, not republic bank, although he did that too. >> not by name. >> you have the fed possibly

tightening and we're thinking this is the time to pick up anything eog is a great oil company that stock is only up a buck are you kidding? >> it's coming off the jobs number goldman say it was encouraging news for a soft landing. others say, let's see how caterpillar trades monday or how uri weathered. >> now caterpillar trades as if the recession is here. there's no doubt about it. the recession is here at caterpillar. the stock has rolled over. the dan her people are upset where tier stock is. when you ask companies what do you like, we aspire to be

danaher. i think they're a fantastic company. the fact that it goes down is much more -- people feel it's a covid hangover because they made the fancy tests, but i think it's a great opportunity >> we mentioned the disney news at the bottom of the hour. we'll get potentially some new streaming color from wbd. >> i think that's going to be explosive. they're going to talk about what they did with cnn and it was right. cnn is coming in strong. there's going to be a level of discipline the stock is down big. they're improving their cash flow when you have that, you start saying maybe this is an opportunity. those who discount, do so at their peril. >> trueist initiates with a buy.

they've said we would be lying if we didn't discuss a dc/marvel crossover. >> to people at home now, david is loved by a number of people this is a man people are rooting for. this is an important thing when it comes to a stock price. if he give it is razzle dazzle meeting i see where he'll lay out some debt paydown, i think you'll pay 20 for the stock. it's real. >> b of a has gotten constructive don't forget cnn under chris lick chris is under a different position sometimes i speak to these guys and i try to figure out who is more hated i have my twitter -- i don't

know if i'm -- >> you used to say you were the most hated man. >> i had this putin problem where sometimes he came in ahead of me. i don't think putin is somebody you want to compete with he's a big hated person. it was a terrible thing to be hated as much a putin. i regard some of the things he does versus what i've done with stocks. >> we should get tupperware on the record here, trying to shore up some liquidity. >> tupperware used to have this amazing french franchise that was so good. remarkable latin america franchise. they had a tremendous woman franchise. it is surprising to see it's been such a death spiral it is a death spiral that's the problem with bed,

bath they're closing and this is the time to be looking at these off prices go over what matt voss said last weekend and off prices the one i'm trying to figure out is rh, restoration hardware. gary freedman is so negative i feel like i should talk him off a ledge. he's so good at what he does when you go to the stores, it's interesting. there isn't anything -- this is my pick with gary. my wife handles our real estate port portfolio. we would love to find a sectional that's smaller to bring in our houses and nothing. nothing. >> we have nike out performed. >> i like that call. >> we have some sound of -- >> let's get that. >> chip's view of the consumer

coming off the levi print. >> there's no question the sector has been hammered since the fear of recession. the levi consumer is a $50,000 income household that consumer is demonstrating real resilience. >> it's a great point. when you look at the jobs in the friday print, leash and hospitality, that labor market is still tight. >> i will say this, something that very few executives talk about, i wonder about p pillfarage currency is 508. i think there's a problem in sh shrinkage. i want executives to say there's

a problem. raw stores, they only let so many people in at once >> do you want to see jeans behind the case and you have to call the guy with the key? >> no. they come faster with amazon the amazon guy comes faster than the guy who opens the thing. home depot talked about -- they have a bump. cvs has a bump you should see how great the undercover people are. they're there. i think that -- everybody has to own up to the fact that it's easy to fence on amazon. >> you mean resell >> yeah, resell. think about it you steal the jeans that are worth a lot and you put them on amazon you have a website

senator durbin was supposed to be responsible so amazon would have to do policing, but they don't. i think people are underestimating how much stealing there is. >> it's changed the retail experience in america. >> i think so. >> speaking of retail and commercial real estate, this piece about a morgan stanley call, looking at the debt coming due. it's early, but that discussion isn't going to go away >> no. it's not going away. when i see the bank figures that i mentioned earlier, how much for f forebearance will there be we need to see people back to

work. >> you mean in office? >> yeah. we have these people saying our people are more productive on friday look, the next story is going to be layoffs i think people coming out of college, bad coming out of business school, bad. layoffs coming there's not enough assignments anywhere no one seems to have enough to do the best performing stock of the large caps is meta he's giving you a blueprint. just exercise it. >> you mean like a pied piper? worked out for mark. >> i'm hearing over and over there's a lot of people not doing anything that's not something that -- >> now they have cover, which we said would happen. >> mcdonald's is hard. they've been saying we got to close because we want to let people off in a way that has dignity. they're not talking about hiring

with dignity mcdonald's, if you look at how it's done sense wince we heard the layoffs, it says something about a lot of companies amazon, let's say amazon woke up -- they have a fabulous cfo let's say he says, 50,000 people, let's do it. you think you would be able to buy that stock where it is i'm going to put this out there. i think amazon is the most dangerous shortener there is today. i think you could come in and it could be a slamma jamma. you short that and send me an invitation to your funeral. >> if that happens, jim, we'll play this tape >> can you imagine

>> we're down 58 on the dow. let's get to bob >> reporter: little pressure on the banks. we have energy on the upside oil is comfortably over $80. health care a little pressure. that's had a great run banks good to see them in positive territory a lot of pressure on the regionals. techs, a mixed performance tremendous run in semiconductors look at some of the tech names here semis were down 4% last week nvidia has been an absolute monster. it was down 4 or 5% last week. apple unusually weak day apple has held up well some weakness starting to appear in tech. caterpillar, i called it the stock of the month last week

you see that move here it was below it's 200-day moving average. talk about compression on the multiple, it was 17 times forward earnings three weeks ago and now it's just below 14, maybe 13 1/2 the regional banks were trading towards the low end of their trading range. first republic 'leliminated ther dividend for the preferred stock. good to see some stable ilizati there. we see these rallies in defensive names, health care, consumer staples, utilities, that's starting to end johnson & johnson had a monster week merck and walgreens had a move

last week. we're going into earnings season friday the banks and united health will be reporting the one thing that's obvious -- it's debatable whether we're going into a recession or not. we're going into an earnings recession. we're expecting three consecutive quarters of downed earnings the estimates are down 4%. a lot of people are saying there could be a situation in the first quarter numbers where we get lower than the numbers are that's the concern for the bears. we're talking about a flat 2023 right now because a lot of people believe the fourth quarter is going to see a nice move to the upside the big issues for earning is margin contraction that's going to come from higher labor costs. we're going to hear a lot about this friday. as for whether the numbers need to be adjusted down more, it

depends on what side of the debate you're on no bear market has ever ended before the recession started that's a good point to keep in for everybody who wants to act like we're out of the recession. carl, back to and earnings will bounce back again, we have to get through this first. carl, back to you. >> bob, we'll talk in a bit. basis points this morning. as we go to break, let's check bonds. not a lot of data on deck for the day. wholesale inventories in about 10 minutes watch yields here, mostly to the upside they've been back and forth so far this morning the dow down 67, big piece is apple, biggest loser at the moment down almost 3%. don't go anywhere.

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anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. some nasdaq 100 leaders this morning. names we've mentioned, micron right at the top up more than

7% energy is getting some bids as well diamondback, baker hughes and then a little chip action, lam research, some travel and lee sure as well marriott international up almost 2% we'll take a break here with the dow down 70. don't go anywhere. oday, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

jim, what's on mad tonight >> i'm beginning to wonder when i look at these low multiples, i'm thinking that we have to stop being as negative as we are. i know that we're going into a period of great turmoil, but i -- because of the banks, but i am beginning to wonder that in general, whether things, if you compare it to two years ago, there's really a surprising number of stocks that are below worth a lot less than 2021 and we're in much better shape i'm focused on are we too negative that's the name of the series an can't wait to give it. >> that's good. >> helps explain why 4100 continues to be a pull. >> that's where we were two years ago this week. that's wrong. >> we'll see youonht tig on "mad money. 6:00 p.m. eastern time we'll take break here. dow down 62. busy morning

good monday morning. welcome to another hour here of "squawk on the street. i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. we are live as always from post

nine of the new york stock exchange david faber has the morning off. again, take a look at stocks under pressure this morning after the holiday shortened week and after the stock market snapped a three-week win streak on the back of rough data. s&p down 0.75% tech under pressure, nasdaq down 1.3% here are three movers we're watching right now starting with tesla slashing prices again. the fifth cut in the u.s. this year alone separately the company is announcing plans to build a battery factory in shanghai. more on tesla later this hour. a report out over the weekend that exxonmobil has held informal talks to acquire pioneer natural resources, giving that stock a pretty nice pop here in early trading up more than 7.5% we'll end with block, kbw downgrades, citing a growing number of risks they believe, quote, will keep investors out of the name over the next year wholesale trade data coming

out a couple moments ago we get to rick santelli. good morning, rick [ no audio ] >> i'm guessing we don't have rick santelli. >> i see his lips moving >> all right we'll get the data in a minute luckily, it is a light data day, although not going to stay that way with cpi, ppi, retail sales, we'll get delta on thursday before we dive into banks on friday. >> and the imf world economic outlook tomorrow, of course. >> big imf week. >> and that's a big story as well you know, i feel like the story today is jobs because the market wasn't open on friday and digesting what was a pretty decent report, at least on the headline numbers, unemployment rate goes down, we create more jobs than expected, but going beneath the surface, the research this morning, has to do with some of the weaknesses and certainly some of the leading indicators within that jobs report the fact that much of the job

growth dame came in travel, leisure, hospitality a strong sector government and health and education services strip those out, not a ton of job growth look at places like manufacturing and construction, that was weak. and jobs in the private payrolls actually saw decline for the first time. >> saying bad news is really bad news >> i'm saying there's more to the headline in there that it's not just hey, green light for the fed to raise interest rates. if they really look at some of the leading indicators, temp hiring, always a leading indicator. >> and this was the week of march 10th, right? this was right a few days before we got the bank -- >> also wage growth moderated and a bar chart of wage growth it shows coming down, so while we are seeing hiring continue, you're not necessarily seeing the tightness of the labor force reinforced in the wage growth. all i'm saying it's not clear-cut. after the jobs report came out

it went up to 70% odds the fed goes 25 basis points in may from 50 before. i'm not sure it's that clear-cut. the leading indicators, it's -- that's a job market cooling down. >> cramer's point was pause here, although you saw jpm, see 25 in may and some risk of june with lower risk in july and beyond i mean, the strategists are not giving up on the idea of hike in may and go away. >> my favorite chart from pantheon, they think the fed should be cutting, no more hikes. he's been looking at the hiring intentions of small business and here's the chart that's the leading indicator there, the blue line the black line is private sector payrolls which if you look at strip into the private sector over the jobs report it was the weakest since 2020 following down there and we could be ability to see weakness

in the labor market. >> job openings. >> claims. >> they were all weak and point it a weaker economy. >> isn't that what we're going for here >> that's what the fed is going for. have they done enough and make matters worse if they go early may with anotheric >> the final we're all watching these because it's the most high frequency numbers on bank lending and the status of banks, we get the h-8 report on commercial bank balance sleets from -- sheets on friday, sharp drop-off in lending over the final two weeks of march especially at the smaller banks. wonder if they're making any loans to businesses, commercial real estate, mortgages, and otherwise business. >> yeah. the most on record for the last couple weeks in march and that's why the banking prints on friday will be key, not so much for the quarter itself but what are they thinking about loan demand going forward. what can they afford to loan in

some cases >> how much of a freeze is there and coming just from the smaller banks and what that is going to do with the economy and consumer let's continue the conversation and bring in jefferies chief market strategist david zurvos joins us what do you think will happen in may with the fed given this data we've been talking about, david? >> well, i think you and carl really covered the whole gamut there. you went through jolts, the h-8 report, you got everything i think the only thing you might not have brought up was the revisions to the initial claims which people got nervous about, too, because they went up about 20 or 30,000 off the levels they were at in the new revisions not that those are big numbers but feeds your point a lot of labor market indicators and the ism data came out weaker last week it was just payrolls that surprised us and got us all worried about the fed having to go one more. i sort of subscribe to that view, sara i think there is one more in

this fed i think the level of inflation at 6% probably dropping to the low 5s with the good drop-off in past numbers, out of the time series, i think that's going to be enough to keep them nervous 5s and 6s are not numbers they want to see on headline cpi or core cpi i think if they get a chance they will do another one for safe keeping and then we'll be in pause mode and get to see what happens with the data, which as you say looks like it's slowing down. >> it might all come down to this wednesday's number, cpi, and then thursday cpi. it feels like a lot of these meetings have been just based on what we're seeing in the days before the meeting in terms of the markets and the economy, david. my pushback on the job thing for you is, the reason they don't want to see strong job growth at this point in the cycle is because of wages on the wage number we got 0.27

month over month wage growth even the yearly numbers look better than where we were here are high wages a threat to inflation at this point? >> i think that's right, sara, although i think in their heart of hearts they're looking at where we sit on inflation at these levels and these levels not comfortable for them core cpi will come in, in the mid 5s core cp in the mid 4s. as we know a lot of big numbers will drop out from last year and the year over years will come down, but it doesn't look good on the track record. the unemployment rate at 3.5%. do they really -- are they thinking they're missing on maximizing employment? they're dual date, maximum employment with surprise stability. feels like we got the employment side buttoned up, price stability, not so much so when you just look at it from the dual mandate perspective, if they can get a faster move to

2%, get to their goals quicker, the market lets them do that, the s&p stays strong, they get there faster to the extent the s&p goes down, the job market cracks, they pull back the s&p has had a pretty good quarter. >> not bad i wonder, people are looking at the last three or four hike cycles and arguing the s&p does well following the final one others say it's not going to rhyme this time. goldman at 4100 year end bofa, sell the last hike does this rhyme with prirs or not? >> i'm nervous about the s&p making a big run up. we've moved more towards our risk asset play this year in high yield debt as we discussed on the show a number of times. still a risk on play, but it's i think less risky of a risk on play, and i think there's double-digit returns in that

i think that more the stock market goes up, carl, the more that it just emboldens the fed to get to 2% faster and feel comfortable leaving rates at the higher levels that they are or pushing them even a little bit further. i don't think they want to see 4300, 4400 or 4500 on the s&p. that's what happened last year going into jackson hole in the heat of the battle on inflation and they got really aggressive with us in terms of retter to bring i think the rhetoric turns sharply against the market and possibly even the actions turn sharply against the market if we rise up quickly. there's a natural i think blockade to getting a big up move in equities doesn't mean we can't grind it out a little more but the big move is harder to sustain. >> i guess what i'm getting at, david, not whether going to move, which sounds like you think they will, but whether they will break something else and whether it's the wrong move? >> you know, i try not to get

too normative here and talk about what's right and wrong, i just tell people what i think they're going to do. my opinion doesn't matter ma that much on what they should do. >> it matters if you think -- the kre, the regional bank index has barely bounced, performing terribly, it matters if you think there's a fragile situation in the banking system that this is only going to make matters worse? >> we could talk about that for a while. i don't want to bore you with too many numbers we've seen the number of banks out there over the last i think three to four decades drop by 70%. we've gone from 14,500 to 4,200 banks in the country and i don't think we've missed a beat in losing those banks we are an overbanked country we have 4,200 plus banks canada has 34, australia has 94. japan has 195. i don't think we miss a beat from seeing consolidation in the banking industry the loan data did come down, as you pointed out, in the h-8 and

worth watching, a lot of that could be noise around some of the loans that are moving off of sbny as well as the security portfolio. we'll know more in the next couple reports those are key and important to look at, the thursday balance sheet and the lending data on friday, but again, i don't -- i don't think that story line, right now, we're a month after sivb and sny and i don't see the macro implications building. i think there's a lot of non-bank lenders and other banks ready to pick up the pieces of whatever drops from the lending fallout from that. >> all right we'll talk to you about that in a few weeks, i guess, when we know more. david, thank you very much good to have you as we head to break, our road map for the rest of the hour including some challenges for the chip makers. taiwan semi posting the first revenue drop in nearly four years. >> more on tesla, one of the

biggest laggards on the s&p as they cut prices in the u.s. for a fifth time and hubris incompetence and agreed, ftx debtors out with the company's control failures big show still ahead dow has gotten positive up 15. don't go away. (cecily) you're looking pleased with yourself. (seth) not to brag, but i just switched to verizon. (cecily) so you got an awesome network... (seth) and when i switched, i got to choose the phone i wanted. for free. not bragging. (cecily) you're bragging. (neighbor) oh, he's bragging. (seth) who, me? never. oh, excuse me. hello, your royal highness, sir...

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housing market remains mixed with a lack of new listings failing to meet buyer demand as

the banks retreat from the mortgage market amid the turmoil in regionals our next guest sees momentum in spring selling activity. joining us in a cnbc exclusive on the 10-year anniversary of the ipo is the ceo cheryl palmer who joins us at post nine. congrats. >> thanks. good to be here. >> we were talking off camera about some of the cycles you've seen in this decade. >> yes. >> it does bring us to the spring. >> it does. >> can we give it an early report card or still too early >> you know, the momentum, carl, started building end of last year and, honestly, since we've turned the corner of 2023,we'v seen that momentum as we talked about on our q4 earnings call, we've seen that momentum continue to build and you've seen that in other builder reports lately there's still significant demand and it's coming every day. >> is it -- we've talked on this show about how the west is comparing to the southeast, things like the region disparities. is that interesting to you right

now? >> you know a little bit but honestly we're seeing the demand across the board. we're seeing it across all of our geographies and we build across the country, across all consumer groups, that first-time move up, second move up, continues to be very, very strong that first time buyer, depending where, maybe a little bit more friction with what's happened to interest rates, and what we call our resort lifestyle buyer, 55 plus, once again, they're not taking mortgages for the most part, continue to be a strong part of our business. >> it's crazy because i think of housing as one of the weakest parts of the economy right now it's where the fed is targeting with its interest rates and trying to bring down inflation doe doesn't sound like it's doom and gloom. >> you have to roll back to last year, sara, and think about how 2022 started, it started very strong and started strong because we have not, for the last many years, been able to meet the demand that's been out there. we've been under building for years. in fact, i think the most

favorable statistic is over the next ten years, we need 15 million new households so that's, you know, much better than the average we've been building for the last decade, right. so i think about the demand. obviously, then we saw interest rates move as we moved into the spring last year, and the combination of interest rates and the pricing power that we have seen for the last two years was too much it wasn't sustainable. so if i think about late spring, summer, fall last year, it was tough. but it wasn't necessarily across all consumers about absolute affordability. it was about the confidence of how they felt with that kind of movement nobody wants to buy at the top of the market nor do they want to have the highest interest rate what happened at the end of the year, is interest rates settled down we weren't seeing 50 blips of movement a day how do you get confident in that environment? right. once that happened everyone kind

of moved back off the sideline and when rates are now let's call them low 6s, we have the ability to help the customer buy them down and the resell market remains very tight so new is in. >> what has it meant for prices then. >> i would tell you, last year prices settled back and i think it's different across the country. some places we saw 10%, we saw places we didn't move much we've tried to use finance as a sales tool because we can give the consumer so much more power by buying down in interest rate like 4 to 1 than just reducing the price so it protects their equity and gets them the payment they can afford. >> people talk about input costs and points to lumber and what a wild ride it was others say it's no match for what wages continue to do. how do you think about the two materials and labor, is there an offset right now >> you're right, carl, lumber has been a bit of a tailwind

we saw record numbers that i hope never repeat themselves that was difficult we've seen that really come back, i would say, to much more normal rates the labor is still tight on the front end of the schedule because we have seen starts across the country, you know, reduce, moderate a bit, so that has helped the front end of the schedule and given us a little relief on the cost side, but as the spring continues to pick up, costs have been a little stickier than we may have imagined because we think about cycles it was spring until fourth quarter, it wasn't that long so costs are still a little bit sticky lumber is a tailwind labor i think is going to continue to be it. >> we're seeing declines in the construction industry? terms of jobs, aren't we? are you hiring as much >> not as much, but honestly as the year has -- as we've turned the corner we're starting to see some come back. >> what market are you most

bullish on as far as supply and demand >> florida continues to be very, very strong. i tell you, the southeast, charlotte, raleigh, it be to be very strong. some of your markets that got hit hard but have started rebounding would be like a phoenix, where you saw permits really move to unprecedented levels austin, texas, you saw both permits and pricing move once again, i think everything has settled back quite a bit. >> we've had big swings in migration and we know why over the last three years again, congratulations on ten years. >> thank you so much. >> thanks for coming in. thanks for having me. >> still to come, a new report on sail crypto exchange ftx detailing a series of control failures that led to its collapse first, watch cloud and enterprise stocks like twilio, zoom, vio,de firmly negative right now and the global x cloud computing etf tracking for its fourth decline in five sessions. stay with us

global crypto exchange binance struggling to find a bank to take its customers cash after the failure of signature bank and silver gate last month according to reports the exchange reportedly using at least one intermediary to restore user funds on its behalf

after unsuccessful attempts to establish direct banking relationships with firms like customers bank corp and cross river bank we continue to be surprised, i think, at the way in which at least some coins, bitcoins, the big vehicle, how it's held up in the face of binance's troubles and what you expect as a downgrade of liquidity kbw cuts block to market perform 75. >> think bitcoin feels like it has more to do with what's happening with interest rates and the dollar weakening than some of the scandals and bad news of some of the firms which is piling up speaking of, ftx debtors releasing a report on the company's control failures eman javers has more what was inside of that? >> hey there, sara the new management of ftx has issued the first report on the collapse of the crypto exchange saying that hubris, incompetence and agreed led to the demise of the company. the first interim report, which

was based on new management's review of terabytes of electronic data and communications, more than 1 million documents and interviews conducted by the 19 former ftx group employees, paints a picture of a deeply dysfunctional ftx management revelations from the report include ftx lacking any internal audit function, that the firm lied about how secure its crypto currency was, and had lacks cyber security protections to protect those crypto assets. in a sign of how chaotic things were, the report cites an internal communication from then ceo sam bankman-fried who said, we sometimes find $50 million of assets lying around that we lost track of, such is life the report also provided an update on what assets have been identified in the bankruptcy process with over $1.4 billion in digital assets recovered and secured in cold storage and an additional $1.7 billion in digital assets that are in a process, they say, of being recovered. now we expect to hear more about

all of this at the next bankruptcy hearing that's set for wednesday in delaware. back over to you. >> the such is life headline, is getting picked up the most so how does it impact his criminal - >> we've all been there, right >> just lose 50 million, such is life. >> right yeah it's a rough monday. well, look, we saw this criminal proceeding going on side by side with this bankruptcy, right, and we saw sam bankman-fried in that scrum last week being brought in to court to plead not guilty as he did to some additional charges, so the criminal picture here is mounting for sam bankman-fried. the civil procedure is moving along as the new ownership tries to figure out exactly where all the assets are and try to repatriate those assets to the creditors as best they can the big question mark in all of this is will they be able to find all the money this interim report gives us a sense they're making progress there, but we don't know whether they're going to be able to find all of it or not yet.

>> appreciate that eamon javers an update with pippa stevens. >> your news update at this hour police confirming that five people were killed by a shooter in downtown louisville and six have been transported to the hospital police also say the shooter is dead the police consider an active scene, but there is no threat to the public meanwhile, government authorities are investigating a pentagon leak involving dozens of classified times more than 50 documents on the war in ukraine were posted online and many of them were labeled as top secret. the pentagon's deputy press secretary leased a statement saying that defense department is reviewing and assessing the validity of the photographed documents. during an interview this morning with al roker at the annual white house easter egg roll, president biden commented on his potential plans to run for re-election in 2024. >> help a brother out may some news for me. >> no, no, no. i plan on running, al, but we're

not prepared to announce it yet. >> well, that's what we get for now. sara, back to you. >> that sounded like an accidental announcement. thank you, pipa. when we come back don't police our interview with the president of the world bank, david malpass, more on the outlook globally as the spring meetings for the imf and world bank get under way micron and western digital among the leaders on news samsung is cutting memory chip production we're going to discuss that story. but you have three sectors higher, energy, industrials, and materials toda chs ggg.y. we'll be right back. lomita feed is 101 years old this year and counting. i'm bill lockwood, current caretaker and owner. when covid hit, we had some challenges like a lot of businesses did. i heard about the payroll tax refund,

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it's what they live to do... trinet serves small and medium sized businesses... so they can do more of what matters. benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. welcome back to "squawk on the street." busy morning for investors on this new week of trading we got you covered on all the big stories. phil lebeau watching tesla, that

stock announcing its fifth price cut alone. eunice is live from beijing amid rising tensions between the u.s. and china. we'll start with bob pisani about an hour into trading there are pockets of strength happening in cyclicals, financials went green. >> i like this action because it's the cyclicals leading remember last week what we saw when caterpillar and a lot of big cyclical names moving to the downside is recession concerns out there. you want to watch them look at the bounceback today you got material stocks and industrials moving to the upside and energy with oil over $80 that's not recessionary type activity you also see tech lagging a little bit we'll take that because remember they've had huge moves up recently you're getting rotation back to where we were a couple weeks ago. that's a positive for the markets here banks starting -- we started weak for regional banks, you heard what was going on with frc, stopped paying dividend to preferred customers announced that friday night, trading down

modestly, the other movers, super regionals we watch every day, the seven or eight of them, they have stabilized and that's a good sign. last week they were trading towards the low end of their recent range staples just had a fantastic week defensive names, last week, health care had a tremendous week last week, and they are still down a little bit, but not much united health really helped support the dow last week. merck had a great week, coca-cola had a great week not as much money flowing into that area, but when you get the cyclical groups starting to out perform, given the s&p is still to the downside. as sara mentioned tech remains the under performer today. apple is weighing on the dow, but apple on a relative performance basis and microsoft have been spectacular in the last month so maybe a little bit of understanding that they're lagging today. oracle has had a tremendous month. oracle was $85 three weeks ago and look at it 94.

that's on a down day a little bit of understanding on that for the week we're going into earnings season and my key point here is, we may or may not be in a recession but we're in an earnings recession for sure. there's the fourth quarter we already have that in the books. 3.2% down. q1 is down 5% right now. there's concerns that that number will get worse. normally remember when we start, the companies beat the analyst estimates. there's concerns this may not happen and that would be a very unusual occurrence here. we may be down 6 or more% by the time the first quarter numbers are in second quarter is down 4%. so again, my point here is, very unusual to see three consecutive down quarters. that did happen in 2020 during the downturn we had, but we spent a long time going past that, spent a long time getting three consecutive. >> people are arguing earnings estimates are still too high. >> yes they have held up well because the strategists have been unwilling to move the numbers down, their recent excuse was, they think that fed is going start cutting rates in the

latter half of the year and of course we have no idea if that's true or not but that's been the reason for the refusal to cut rates. that open out there. the estimates for the fourth quarter everything is loaded in fourth quarter, 10% increase in q4 and that's the only reason this year's numbers are positive because they believe in that fed cut for the fourth quarter and then the earnings stabilize. it. >> i feel like a lot of going back to history and figuring out, what do stocks do into and out of a fed pause what do stocks do into and out of a fed's first cut after a long cycle what does consumer discretionary do after a recession >> when you were raising rates aggressively, growth stocks get hit always work on that simple playbook and whenever that gives a concern, tbig tech stocks get hit. when not they tend to rise again. >> they had a great performance. >> huge swings thanks bob pisani. >> let's get to tesla this

morning. one of the biggest s&p laggards of the morning down double digits in april alone. phil lebeau has more about a three-week low here, phil. >> carl, the big concern on wall street and with investors what we might see with tesla, q1 automotive growth merges why is that a focus? this is the fifth time the company has cut prices since january and while these will take effect in the second quarter it raises concerns about whether or not tesla's gross margins will come under greater margin than expected we'll talk about the level to focus on in a couple weeks they cut the model y prices by $2,000, model 3 by 1,000 here's the base prices for all of these models now. note worthy the 3 and y now under $50,000. the 3 was always under $50,000 now you're looking at the base coming in just under $42,000 nobody is expecting tesla to lose its dominance in evs in the u.s. in the fourth irst quarter theyd

almost two out of every three electric vehicles in the u.s., but this share, a year ago, at 75%. now it's down to 62.6% remember the federal ev tax credits take effect next week and that's important because some of the models like the standard range model three which has a battery pack that comes in from china, it's unlikely to qualify for the full $7500 so as you take a look at shares of tesla, if you look at the analyst notes today, almost all say the same thing, not a surprise, will we see more cuts in the future? and i talked about automotive gross margins. the number to focus on when the q1 results come out, 20% the estimate right now is that they will be at least 20.5%. if they come in below 20% then you can see further pressure on the stock. >> price cuts here in this country have been a big part of the discussion what's going on in china whether some of the smaller chinese rivals are starting to get tough. with the government's

encouragement, what's the picture like there >> very competitive. much more competitive than it is here the model 3 and y, don't have a whole lot of competition here yet in the united states far different story in china where there are a number of competitors who are coming into the market and while tesla is still number one worldwide, in large part because of its success in china, as well as here in the united states, china is becoming competitive, byd in particular is really, you know, nipping at their heels so to speak, and that's the market that i think people are going to be watching to see what happens ultimately with ev pricing let's say over the next three or four years. how much does it come down as you see competition increase >> phil, thank you phil lebeau on tesla, down 3.5% right now. the u.s. navy said one of its missile destroyers carried out operations in the south china sea today. the move coming after china's military conducted a second day of drills around taiwan on sunday

eunice joins us with more on just what happened over the weekend and how we should look at it. >> well, sara, china's military has declared what -- it's declared what it describes as a successful end to three days of drills near taiwan, which it says have helped its troops hone their skill set and also prepare them so that they are ready to, quote, res absolutely crush taiwan independence advocates and foreign interference over the past three days, china has been simulating a blockade around taiwan as well as conducting a mock precision strikes and this comes as the state media have said that china's homegrown aircraft carrier has engaged in these activities for the first time. the japanese authorities have said that they've also spotted the ship nearby the waters of okinawa where the u.s. has an air force base now this all comes as beijing

looks to react to the island's president's stopovers both in new york as well as l.a., on route to and from central america, as well as visiting with u.s. lawmakers, the president tsai ing-wen said after she returned to the island that she would continue to conduct these types of exchanges with u.s. lawmakers and, in fact, did host a u.s. delegation now, despite these drills, the level of aggression that the beijing authorities have been showing are really seen as still much less aggressive compared to the action that was conducted after the former house speaker nancy pelosi had visited taiwan last summer. a lot of people here are interpreting that as a way that beijing is trying to project itself as a tough rival on taiwan, but at the same time, one who is trying to become an

international peacemaker now, that said, the tensions around -- between the u.s. and china continue to rise the chinese have accused that u.s. destroyer, sara, you mentioned, of illegally entering chinese waters in the south china sea and now says their troops are on high alert. >> eunice, thank you clearly investors paying attention. eunice yoon in a windy beijing tonight. thank you. don't miss our exclusive with world bank president david malpass and tomorrow, join us for women and wealth, a cnbc your money event where we'll explore ways women can increase their income for the future and make the most of current opportunities and register at cnbc events.com for the virtual event or use the qr code on the screen we're back in three minutes.

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let's get a check on natural gas today tracking for the best day since early march up over 7% it's giving a boost to nat gas stocks like pioneer, com stock all in positive territory today. pioneer, sara, in the news for reasons unrelated to the change in commodity prices. >> early deal talks with exxon that reporting sending that stock up 6.5% and keeping energy stocks at the top of the market today despite weakness in crude oil which we're seeing to kick off the week speaking of the imf and world bank kicking off their spring meetings this morning. the world bank expecting global growth to weaken this year joining us for an exclusive interview, david malpass, world bank president it's good to see you. >> hi, sara. good to be here. >> you actually upgraded the forecast for global growth this year, this morning, which was kind of a surprise given everything we've seen with interest rate hikes and the banking failures in the u.s.

why are you feeling a little better >> growth is slowing down from last year, which wasn't a great year the reason it's an upgrade is our previous forecast was in january, so some things have improved since january, specifically china lifted its lockdown, so that's been helpful, and there's been a little bit of buoyancy in the advanced economies, the u.s. and europe, on the consumption side. from the standpoint of the trend lines, they're still towards weakness and we're seeing the slowdown from last year from 2022, where there was 3.1% growth, we're now slowing to 2% growth in 2023, and that's particularly apparent for the developing countries, the weaker countries, so it's still a grim outlook for developing countries. that includes the higher oil

price. maybe today oil is down a little bit, but it's up from where it was, you know, still running at $80 a barrel and you see that in the natural gas prices these are all really important to developing countries because they use it to make fertilizer, to run the farm equipment, and to produce crops. >> a lot there that we can ask you about, but i wanted to start with china because we just had this report from eunice yoon in beijing about the hostilities and tensions ramping up, china and taiwan and china and the u.s. and we're looking ahead to the china reopening as a positive contributor to global growth do you think investors have this right? it feels tenuous. >> one of the things we can look at is, it matters more what happens in the u.s. and the advanced economies they can be stronger, and that would create more balance in the world. as far as the investors, i think they're looking at, you know,

the real world of china being the second largest economy and growing faster than the u.s., and so that creates some of the imbalance that people are feeling. as we look at it, china is taking in a lot of private sector investment this year, so i think the response of the world should be to redouble their own efforts to get small business growth, to get the economy up and running, to get more production of the things that the world needs, and that would reduce the tension somewhat >> david, kind of brings to mind the ongoing i guess now for years, but heating up once again, discussion of the dollar's foor future, right, once we start seeing more geopolitical ties regarding china and the saudis certainly now. how does the world bank think about that >> currencies are important to

people because it governs what the prices are for people. if a currency weakens you get a lot of inflation that was the experience of the u.s. in the 1970s after a big devaluation of the dollar. you got really ten years of high inflation. it's really important how the current normalization of interest rates is resolved right now we feel like we're in a lose-lose situation, so if the central bank keeps raising interest rates, their goal is to slow the consumption within the economy and slow down and you end up with a negative output with negative outcome from the standpoint of gdp. if they were to turn around and start softening or cutting interest rates, it raises a whole different set of problems. you get a weak dollar, as you're raising the point, you know, we already have gold going above $2,000 an ounce, and if there were a change away from the

monetary stance you would see that higher and you would see more inflation, and we know the result of that that hurts people at the bottom of the income scale. inflation is the most harmful form of tax, so we're right now in a lose-lose and i would like to see us ou into a better -- you know, a better outlook would be if there was more focus on production and especially in the advanced economies. they have the ability to marshal enough capital to really beef up the production of all kinds of products, of semiconductors and of energy supplies, of the manufacturing that's needed by the world. and that would create a stabilization for the dollar and a better outcome with regard to china. >> but in the meantime, we're in this, will they/won't they, for may and june you see the impact on the global economy, especially on the poorest economies.

do you want the fed to stop raising rates? >> right now the world's trying to allocate the losses from that decade of artificially low interest rates if you keep the interest rates low for a whole decade, people will invest in the wrong things. and then you have to figure out what to do about it. the challenge for developing countries, this is a grim outlook for them because it's this lose/lose scenario that's outthere, that they aren't getting capital. in fact, the investment flows are flowing out of the develop willing countries. they're facing this very large debt burden with the interest rate on it going up. a lot of that debt burden is floating rate debt and so they're really hit hard by the rise in interest rates and slow growth in the advanced economies. so, i'm worried about that and they're worried about -- you know, i travel and meet with the leaders. and they're worried about next

year's crop cycle, and about the fragility, you know, the physical fragility, the coups and the -- the wars or battles that are going on in quite a few countries as a result of shortages of food and fertilizer and electricity. you know, in a big chunk of the world, the electricity is going off because of the demand for natural gas that's going toward europe to make up for russia so, this is just a very harsh situation for developing countries. i think the responsibility of the world is to get more production out of the advanced economies so it can balance with china. >> well, i know you'll be making these points all week long with your counterparts at the world bank, imf and all the global leaders. thank you for joining us at the beginning of the week. david malpass.

we're going to check in with former ford chief mark fields on those tesla price cuts and some battery factorlas. pnt what that means for supply around the world stay with us

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a new samsung is cutting memory chip production kristina partsinevelos joins us now. who does this affect >> oh, there's a lot i actually want to talk about tsmc first because that's moving a lot of other chipmakers. posted its first monthly revenue drop in four years taiwan semi saw 15% revenue decline in march which shows it's not immune to weaker headwinds. so the timing is unusual, too, because q1 is usually a stronger quarter but it could start a weaker start to q2 the results are not only dragging down tsmc, down 3%, and intel as well, given its foundry business, shares are down 1.5% two points to keep in mind with the report if tsmc business continues to soften that could create another headwind for other semiconductor manufacturers, lam, and and secondly the question -- or this

question is if the runup in chip stocks like the smh up 24% year-to-date or nvidia is warranted if the fundamentals aren't there tsmc isn't alone chip contractor samsung posting its worst quarterly profit in 2009 so, samsung also supplies wall street by taking meaningful action to its short-term production plan, something it resisted to do compared to competitors over the last year you can see the stock is moving and it's having an impact on micron and western digital we have more "squawk on the street" next ayunst ted lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic

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good monday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. setting the agenda today, the bets that another rate hike is ahead continue to rise following the jobs number on friday. will this week's inflation data keep the hawkish narrative alive? we'll talk to pimco's head u.s. economist. tesla cuts prices once again as the stock continues to fall and its market share starts to shrink former ford ceo mark fields on whethe