crypto that's allegedly lost sam bankman-fried wrote it off as such goes life. >> what's 40 mbillion here, 40 billion there. >> all right thank you. thank you for watching "power lunch." >> don't go anywhere closing bell starts right now. this make or break hour begins with major questions about earnings, the fed and your money and how this week could hold the answers to everything here is your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. energy and industrial stocks like caterpillar leading the way. technology and communication services are dragging the market apple lower today on report of falling pc shipments globally. microsoft falling a bit. there you see both stocks in the red. that brings us to our talk of the tape have we seen the worst of the

earnings recession or is there more downside ahead? it's a key issue as you decide whether or not to buy stocks right here right now let's ask adam parker, the founder and ceo of triveriant research and a cnbc contributor. price action says the market is not sure post-jobs report what exactly to do. volume will be light because europe is closed it's, you know, people are off on spring break, et cetera, but nonetheless it's a big week. >> yeah. i'm a little surprised there were not any negative pre-releases last week maybe, you know, the really egregious things that sometimes happen as the economy slows, you get one or two big blowups, maybe we dodge that. maybe that's bullish that's one two, the 2023 earnings numbers have come down a lot they were down 3.6% in q1 from where this were on january 1st the bar has been set lower all 11 gig sectors are down.

maybe the bar just got lowered enough where it can be clear >> i guess it depends on whether you think the earnings have troughed or are in the process of in q1, earnings down 5.3%. q2 expectations are for down 4 what am i supposed to do with that. >> numbers for full-year 2023 are flattish now, a little up from 2022. they'll probably be down a bit is my guess. the good news is the downward revisions are behind us rather than in front of us. the problem i have, it's too early to worry about it yet, the 2024 numbers are out and for year over year growth.

fiscal stimulus and et cetera doesn't sound like the best case what i think is wrong right now, the market is telling you, today is an exemption with growth, the market is telling you the fed pivoted already, but the fed has not told you i'm worried the market is in front of the fed in terms of the big rally in the nasdaq. >> there's like a 74% chance as of today of a hike in may as liesman has been saying today, yeah, the jobs report was weaker but not weak enough. not weak enough to keep the fed from hiking. those expectations were at first 25%, then up to 50%, now just shy of 75% >> i'm with liesman on that. just keep it simple. the fed's mandate is full employment and stable pricing. which one of those is dovish the market is pivoted and dovish hyper growth stocks are up a lot. i think the skew now is towards

them being more hawkish. i'm kind of negative on the market now i feel like the earnings will come down. maybe we dodge some of the pre-releases, estimates have to come down. valuation is not compelling. the fed will be more hawkish >> what is more compelling what gets you to a price where you say they hiked eight or nine times. they may go another time what makes the market more compelling to you? >> you have to believe the earnings are troughing and they start accelerating again the earliest that seems possible is six months from now i think it's a little bit -- >> market gets stagnant. >> yeah. i think it's a little bit too early. >> all right you think it's too early to get -- >> to get super bullish. >> are we reminded this week that it's better to own health care over the banks? i raise that question because this is the week, right? you get the bank earnings kicking off later but you also

have united health on friday >> i really like -- at the beginning of the year we downgraded the health care services because they were so good last year but united health has incredible pricing power. some companies you think they do when i think of mistakes i've made in my career, it's cyclical, constructional at the same time. sure, it's cyclical, but the only way they really fail is if we get a deep recession where small and medium-sized businesses go out of business. i think those businesses have better achievability in an eroding economy. i don't think banks are cheap. i think you're starting every meeting people are asking about commercial real estate loans, growth being impaired. >> what is going to be the question that remains -- >> for sure. your view of the economy and growth has to be lower now than

it was three, four weeks ago you are just not seeing construction while it's happening. it's just a slowdown >> you don't want to buy the banks into what is a further slowdown but at some point you make a decision, i want to buy the banks because as you said the market is anticipatory >> if i'm bullish and i get more excited, there's not as much upside for them as other parts of the market. for me, i continue to think energy, metals, chemicals are the best way to outperform estimates are low. there's risks that come up inventory is not a problem and they're cheap. i continue to pound on that as a theme on any one, three, five, seven, ten-year view >> cyclicals, what you want to own them or not? last week industrials were the weakest part >> i think our view is overweight materials and energy, underweight industrials.

industrials have higher earnings expectations and not cheap i would rather take the risk with energy and metals the question to get truly bullish, i need earnings to be accelerating and more evidence that earnings can be higher in '24 than in '23 without massive accommodation, which i think is currently in the price >> let's bring in mira now as we extend the conversation. welcome. you said in terms of sectors that tech is in for a "reality check. what does that mean? >> tech has been a big driver of the rally so far this year because people think the expectations for rates is moving lower and those things can be true and there may be a tech rally but maybe not as much as we've seen because when you look at earnings, that's where you get the reality check that

they're still undergoing these prices from a wage standpoint. there's a lot of tough decisions to be made when you pair that in, all of a sudden you start to see weakness in areas that perhaps was not justified in some of the runup we have seen >> unless we were reminded that wedbush will be cautious and maybe more stable, maybe more stable than other parts of the market and even more stable than others in this space >> stability is not necessarily growth if it's going to be stable in the next recession, these are good blue chip quality companies. if we're thinking about the growth rates we've seen over the last decade or so ago, not likely to be regulated i worry about valuations and i worry about concentration risk

people have a lot of exposure to these companies, the profitability is not commensurate to the same weighting. that used to be a bit more balanced a few years ago when they had gang busters profits. we're not seeing that today so we have to manage that concentration risk >> do you want to stay defensive? >> within the scope of the u.s. equity markets, somewhat defensive. energy still holds up when we think about profits. oil prices are high. they have stabilized at a higher level. those are areas we would find more interesting from a cyclical perspective. defensives is a good place to be health care, where you have access to the longer term growth themes and looking outside the u.s. where we might see more earnings upgrades versus downgrades in

the u.s. >> you guys largely agree -- >> here's some tech i'll own i think you can own small soft software >> why >> ev to gross profit. the multiples have come down massively. there's a number of companies that are forecast to have profit growth of 30%, 40% this year if they don't outperform, they'll look very cheap versus history. you have big private companies that already have the money on the sidelines. they did momentum, qualtrix, and maybe the slower tech venture means it's harder to fund businesses and some of these guys will do okay. you can't own nothing. >> let's say if there's a broader economic slowdown, aren't the smaller enterprise companies going to get hit harder than the large one? >> the question is how much is in the price if there's a massive reset, i

think the point you made is a great one. microsoft is a great company it's like what's in the price? some of these things have been reset massively. i don't know if i can dream there's a 30%, 40% premium coming in the next 6, 12 months for a mega cap you don't want to be underweight apple, google, an in the index so i think you take a shot where you buy a basket of them and some of them get taken out >> how, mira, would you assess what you think the fed is going to do. we're at 74% now i characterized what liesman said or how he characterized it. job report, okay, weak but not weak enough. does that make sense >> i would agree with that when we look at the jobs report, still had decent amount of gains. low unemployment rate. we saw wage growth continuing to roll over and cpi continued to

outpace wage growth. it's still strong. when you pair that with what we see this week in cpi, we'll have a headline cpi number that comes down significantly as a result of base effects. we'll probably see a core year over year cpi number that is strong, and a strong monthly print. i think the fed will want to raise rates another quarter point in may where i would push back on that is unemployment and inflation are deeply lagging indicators. if we look at the past and think about the unemployment rate, typically over the last 70 years we've seen that when the unemployment rate bottoms, we go into recession about eight months later we can't be waiting for the unemployment rate to push up massively. what we typically see is things have gotten to a rough place by the time you see unemployment rate peak, even cpi continues to rise in the early parts of

recession. so i think the fed is focused on data deeply lagging. >> i'm speaking of the new york fed inflation expectations not great. one-year inflation expectations up 0.5% to 4.7%. three-year expectations up 0.1% to 2.8 that only reenhances to the fed what it has to do, right we affirms to them the job that's still -- that they probably think lies ahead. >> i don't disagree with your high-level view. i think we're all stuck trying to interpret what they're going to do with data that is lagging. only 14 months ago we were buying billions and billions of mbs. the question is do they think now we'll react and not look at lagging statistics for the first

time ever, or do they lift and lag -- >> would you say this raises the probability of a mistake a bigger mistake >> they'll be hawkish. they never said they won't be and the stocks they're discounting that they're going to be. if my job is where are things discounted in the market, you're telling me semiconductors, no recession, stocks are awesome. >> does your view of the fed being more hawkish lead you in part to international over the u.s. do you think that central banks are not going to keep the food -- the pedal to the floor as hard or as long >> you might see some of the international banks in a developed market where we look at the ecb and the bank of england dealing with more

stubborn inflation you might want to see them continue to be more hawkish than the fed, but the fed is talking tough. they said what they want to do i don't necessarily think additional hiking is warranted, it's likely the path of least resistance going forward beyond that, they can pause for a period of time and take stock of what's happened we'll see slowing credit growth. we're in a restrictive territory here i don't think they can realistically hold the line for that long. >> frankly what they say is not nearly as important as what they do that remains to be seen. wouldn't you agree with that the market doesn't believe they'll get to a level at which stock market suggested they have when i say some, some of the members themselves >> i think we're splitting hairs where the fed goes and doesn't go the difference here on the table is 25 basis points, 50 basis points we're at the end stages of this

long journey when we think about international, it's less about a fed and a central bank story, it's more about let's think about the fundamentals in the stock market where are we seeing the prospect for potential upgrades or catalyst for growth coming out of a bad situation where can we find that cyclical exposure in a world of higher rates and higher inflation this is why we think more international than the u.s. where valuations just feel high regardless of what the fed is going to do. >> thank you, guys >> good to see you let's get to our twitter question of the day. which stock should you buy right now? bank of america, jpmorgan or united health? an interesting question as earnings kick off this week. we want your answer. we got the results coming up later on up next, star venture

capitalist rick heitzmann is flagging a serious snap back in a key part of the market as well why it could spell major upsid for tech you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. you can't buy great conversations, or excuses to unplug. you can't buy possibilities, and you can't buy moments that matter. but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price we believe your investments should work harder for the future you imagine. and that's where our strategic investing approach can help. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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40 minutes to go in the trading day. shares of taiwan semislipping today on lackluster sales numbers. kristina partsinevelos has more on what it means

>> taiwan semiconductor posted its first monthly revenue drop in almost four years it's not immune anymore to weaker electronics demand. those results are weighing on intel. shares are down a little bit -- almost 1%. if capex plans begin to slow down, it could affect lam, applied materials and asml you have memory chip contractor samsung that just posted its worst quarterly profit since 2009 on weaker global demand post-covid samsung surprised investors by cutting short-term production plans. something it had resisted to do compared to competitors like micron but there is a silver lining if samsung cuts production, that could level out supply and demand and allow micron and western digital to step in and fill the gaps. that notion is driving memory

chipmakers micron and western digital roughly 8% lower -- higher today >> all right we'll see you in a little bit. >> thank you the private markets saw a snap back in the first quarter, that's according to my next guest after a softer end to 2022 what's next for venture capital as the space grapples with the aftermath of the svb collapse? let's ask rick heitzmann a snap back? somebody said the private markets are a mess >> they're a mess but they are bottoming out. we're seeing the beginning of good results in q1 after a 2022 which were a complete mess, especially firms that had budgeted at the end of '21 for a strong '22 and massively disappointed over the course, things have started to turn >> how would you describe the overall state of venture in the wake of all that >> there's less capital

deployed capital deployment is down 50% less institutional investors are giving folks money to invest and that's creating a slowdown throughout the ecosystem but we're seeing some of the best companies beat their numbers substantially. we're seeing new catalysts with things like ai driving new innovation and we're excited >> when does it start to come back further if it's down 50% in terms of funding, when do you see a legit turnaround or is it severely impaired for a good while? >> i think there's been -- we were overfunded in 2020, 2021. >> that's an interesting way o putting it >> yes so there was -- that was an unrealistic time that might not be the right benchmark. it might be renormalizing to a new normal and from that new normal we're seeing a functional market where expectations are

coming together and people are excited about the projects we're working on >> who picks up the slack for svb in terms of venture lending? i would imagine that's got to be impaired dramatically and may stay that way for a while. >> it's still early. svb was a great partner for a lot of private companies they might have been a little aggressive at times in providing debt to firms that, you know, were still emerging in terms of their operations so far there's been other people in the space who stepped in and funded a lot of our companies. in the medium term, you have to see if monster banks or emerging regionals will fill that ecosystem. >> you think they will in the uncertain environment we find ourselves in when every conversation we have these days not just with people like you and other vcs, credits can dry up for a while, right? banks will be pulling back not handing out the hand >> banks are pulling back. obviously their cost to capital

is increasing. you'll see less venture lending than you did before. again, here's a new normal that was not a realistic period in that timeframe. the new normal is companies growing, had thing their milestones, they'll have access to capital on the debt or equity side we're starting to see that machinery starting to work again. >> what is the ipo market looking like >> still a mess. that's one thing -- one thing that helps fund startups is folks like us who have been investors in companies for a decade -- >> looking for the exit, right >> looking for an exit and that sends money back to our investors to begin that cycle again. without a healthy ipo market, people are still sitting on their hands. so far we're not seeing anything prior to labor day the hope is that, you know, rates normalize, the economy is stable and you're seeing a fourth quarter of some of the best companies who have been waiting to go out for now almost two years that will start to have access to the public

markets and the markets will start functioning. >> how optimistic are you of that timeframe even that sounds aggressive given where we are now it appears we're maybe just at the beginning of weakening substantially. >> i think we're past the weakening point. >> in the economy? >> in terms of the markets >> i'm talking about the eco economy. >> the market might anticipate the economy more you hope the markets anticipated the economy and that's why last year was such a mess going forward, we think that, you know, the markets will anticipate a little bit of a bounce and actually the best companies are going to overperform even in a soft economy. that's how you will separate out the great companies that should be able to go public in even what might be a volatile ipo market >> from more mature if you want to use that word stage of tech we keep hearing about layoffs. >> yes >> among the biggest out there

in silicon valley. is there more to go? are we right-sized enough or no? >> i think we are. assuming you can hold your expenses and revenue estimates for this year, i think people have gotten the memo, they got lean we talked about it for the last year a lot of startups started doing layoffs 15, 16 months ago looking at 2022 of, hey, our revenue won't be there we have to right size our expenses in order not to fill that funding gap with equity >> what is the job market -- how would describe what that looks like right now out in the valley you had this huge upset. svb blows up startup "a" is wondering what it will do. they have to layoff people how hard is it to find another job in startup world in silicon valley >> it's not that hard. it's a healthy ecosystem people are hiring. the people getting laid off from

snap or meta are able to find a job. we were so far behind the hiring curve two years ago it's being reabsorbed people are being more thoughtful about not quitting their job without another job to go to you know, that's starting to work again you're also seeing wage compression for the first time in probably ten years. >> all right appreciate it as always. we'll talk to you soon rick heitzmann joining us. pioneer popping on talks of a potential merger we have a shareholder standing by for her take and what it acadt mean for the broer spe. "closing bell" right back.

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joining me now is cnbc contributor and pioneer shareholder jenny harrington good to see you. interesting report to say the least from the "wall street journal. what do you make of it >> i thought stifle captured it perfectly where they say the pioneer deal is not imminent last friday's m&a headlines likely place a bid under pure play permian assets. i see that exxon went out. they have, like, $30 billion of cash on their balance sheet burning a hole in their pocket and they made a big statement in the world that probably the single best oil assets out there are in the permian basin >> that's how joe terranova put it on halftime as well it's a trophy asset and you put a floor under the stock. do you agree with that >> not just under that stock but

under anything with permian assets you have devon that has got about 70% of their assets in the permian. you have oxi that has been 55% of assets in the permian you have a lot of players down there and this puts a floor on it you and i have been going back and forth on this for almost a year as we've seen oil prices trade up and the stocks are acting more volatile and when they come down to these prices, i'm kind of pulling my hair down saying, well, they're still minting cash there's so much money to be made here these are valuable assets. when the strokes come down to these trough levels, they're compelling to buy. you should look at them based on their cash flow. that's what exxon is doing i think it puts a floor under this whole space it highlights another thing, too, which is whether we like it or not, we are totally dependent on fossil fuels. those are here we need them you see things like u.s. gasoline demand decreasing it's easy to latch on to that

and say everyone is running for evs, but if you take a step back and look at the broader global scale, expectations for global oil demand is increasing this is a great reminder of how much money there is to be made in the space >> you sold chevron and got into this name only within the last year, right? >> right i was probably slow on that. i probably should have sold chevron earlier. i read an interesting book last year, and it paints the whole history of the map of energy starting in the 1930s through today. add as i was reading that, i thought the single best assets globally are in the permian right now that's where the best assets are and where the best future growth should come from i had chevron and i couldn't see enormous upside on that still. i run this dividend strategy, so

i had chevron down to less than a 4% dividend yield. i thought it was time to be done with that, bought pioneer. i concentrated my focus in the permian because i thought that's where the best free cash flow would come from. >> what about talk that last year restarted the energy trade since the beginning of the year. do you buy that? >> i think i do. i don't think it's going to be -- we were up 60% in 2022 50% in 2021 or i might have those reversed it's not going to be like that a lot of the money has already been made. we had this high growth crazy, frothy return period for the past couple of years i think where we are now is going to be a much more steady state or period. even if you look at the company's earnings, they jacked up in those couple of years and now they're strong but they

plateau compared to what they were it's restarted it but not in the way it was before don't get in now and think you'll put 60% in your pocket. you might not. you might put 11% dividend yield in your pocket >> up next we're tracking the biggest movers as we go into the close kristina partsinevelos has more on that >> someone has a green jacket to add to his closet. that has shares of one name swinging higher. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity.

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i got 20 minutes to go before the close let's get back to kristina partsinevelos for the key stocks we're watching >> block is lower today as kbw analysts downgraded the stock to market perform the firm says multiple risks are adding up for the company including scrutiny over its cash app. while block denies the accusations, kbw analysts say regulators could still look at the stock. shares of topgolf callaway are getting a boost thanks to jon rahm's win

he played the masters with the company's gear that's putting the stock on track for the best day since january. i didn't have any puns in that one. >> that's okay you'll make up for it maybe tomorrow >> you're just above far or under par. what's better? under par. >> amazing >> ruined it okay, bye. >> bye-bye that's kristina partsinevelos. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked which stock would you buy right now? bank of america, jpmorgan or united health? head to @cnbcclosingbell on twitter. we'll have the results after this break

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let's get the results of our twitter question we asked which stock would you buy right you to bank of america, jpmorgan or umh? jpm edging out united health group followed by bank of america. up next, a major mack meltdown we'll break down the report that's sending apple's stock lower today. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone i am here because they revolutionized immunotherapy. i am here because they saw how cancer adapts to different oxygen levels and starved it. i am here because they switched off egfr gene mutation and stopped the growth of tumor cells. there's a place that's making one advanced cancer discovery after another for 75 years. i am here...

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all right. we're in the closing bell market zone greg branch here to share his playbook steve kovac on apple's tumbling pc shipments bob pisani breaking down the crucial moments of the trading day. and greg branch i begin with you. a big week earnings kickoff more inflation data. how do you size it up for us >> at the end of the day the market is still discounting the future incorrectly in my opinion. we're looking at consensus in the back half of this year forecasted for mid single digit growth in earnings for third quarter. 10% earnings growth in the fourth quarter still unclear to me how we get from here to there with right now consensus at about negative 7% earnings decline for the

first quarter. somewhere along the way, the market is either going to have to discount appropriately what the future looks like or the future looks different than what many of us think right now the market is discodis discounting interest rate cuts in the middle to the back end of the year, i don't see that and the market is discounting we won't see a slowdown or a recession, something i don't see in the cards this year >> we are in an earnings recession. it's undeniable. like every recession, you come out of it after you go into it maybe earnings are in the process of troughing, no though it sounds like you think they'll get much, much worse from here. >> well, it's funny that you say that, you say we're in a recession. how long has the masses rejected that notion? >> we're in an earnings recession. we're in an earnings recession for certain, if you look at the numbers of last quarter plus the expectations of this quarter, plus those for next, we're going

to have three quarters in a row of negative earnings growth. that's what i'm saying is undeniable the numbers are the numbers. >> right it's undeniable when it is not deniable anymore, but it's largely been denied up to that point. what i'm saying, is think about december 31st. the projection for this quarter was flat here we are a short three months later and it's negative 7% that's a big change. i think that consensus is off by similar magnitudes for virtually every quarter this year. that means we'll have continued aggressive downward revisions. it means the multiples are wrong. >> you still think the fed is going to be more aggressive than people want to believe >> i'm not sure it matters anymore. i think it's the first time we can say that we spent two years fed watching the markets ups and downs predicated on everything we thought the fed would do i think we're transitioning out of that. i'm not sure it matters if it's

another 25 bips in may or not. we know the credit crunch is real that's going to do some of the fed's lifting for it the fed has not figured out how much they'll do. they'll certainly pause soon the difference of opinion is that some are forecasting rate cuts this year i think that's wishful thinking. >> is a pause not good enough to at least signal that we're done? we're done hiking. the market may have to wait longer than it wants to for actual cuts, but at least it would know the hiking cycle is over >> yeah. i think that's a good thing. the markets attention will turn to the macro and the multiples and the earnings growth. i think that when people start to focus on that again, they'll find precious little earnings growth this year they're going to find the market is not trading at 18 times forward, it's trading at 22 times forward right now.

that will concern people >> so where do i want to position right now then? >> the few places that will get earnings growth this year, energy, consumer discretionary and industrials. that's the only place to find earnings growth this year. >> i don't understand the industrials thing. i got you with energy. why do i want to be in industrials if your projection for the economy and the market is far worse than most people who come on the network. yet you still want me to buy industrial stocks? that doesn't make sense to me. help us understand that. >> i don't want you to buy companies that are going to deliver reliable earnings growth while it might not be the whole sector, even in a recession, there's going to be certain segments that slow down and certain segments that may hold steady but that may have efficiency gains, are not experiencing as significant wage pressures as others. that's the challenge, find the

earnings growth. >> you got a name or two for me? >> you know i can't recommend specific names on tv >> i'm going to ask you any way on tv. i'll make you squirm a little bit. i appreciate it. that's greg branch steve kovac joining us mac shipments fell 40.5% in the first quarter of 2023. big shock. we know pcs, computers, macs sales are weak >> when apple does it, they do it on a sales basis. they don't say how many items they're talking about. let's say this report is completely right, they're talking about the number of macs shipped, not the sales growth or the dollar sales done here they just launched a couple new

macbook pros, the more expensive ones in january, but it does not look good. in the december quarter, mac sales on a dollar basis were down 29% this is just a continuation of that sequel. >> what do you think the recent gains in the mega cap space have done to earnings expectations? i'm not asking about the numbers generally speaking, but just in terms of where the narrative has gone these stocks have had a huge jump back. do you think expectations thus have risen as well >> i don't think expectations have risen what we've been seeing from big tech companies with the exception of apple is them handing investors what they want to see, layoffs and more cost cuts we've seen that from google, twice from meta, twice from amazon, and in the more smaller caps from salesforce and so many others they're handing investors what they want to see as we go into a recessionary

environment we won't be spending like crazy and hiring like crazy like in the pandemic for apple, sales will likely be down again year on year when they report earnings on may 4th. things are slowing down in a real way >> yeah. people will want to see also, as you know, what's going on with the app store, the services business that was the question going into the last quarter i remember us having that conversation on earnings day that will rule the day yet again, no? >> it's always services. look, when we see services growth slowing down, which we saw last year, a lot of that was blamed on things like advertising slowing down or people not spending much on games. the app store in particular, that's where most of the money is made, through video games people are just playing fewer games as they get back out into the real world we're just in this -- for apple in particular, we're in this really funky time of the comps just look so bad it won't be until the end of the year that

they will lap themselves from peak pandemic sells for macs, services, all those things so it will look better on a year over year basis, not until the end of this year >> steve, thank you. steve kovac joining us there i turn to bob pisani, who is sitting here at post nine with me does it feel like tech is tottering? >> we moved up on the s&p in cyclicals. the lead sect today, transports. >> the worst last week >> exactly everything is up in the transports except the railroads. they're down today if you see what's going on here, look at how the cyclicals have led here industrials, energy, materials caterpillar has been strong, 3m, dow inc. up strong oil is up. materials have been doing well

again today. there's your three classic cyclicals. i see gold down three days in a row. i see yields moving back up. this tells me the recession concerns that were so prevalent last week seem to be easing a bit. >> are we back to soft landing again? >> that's what the market seems to be telling us we're going back and forth they can't decide on that goldilocks scenario they want to get going here even in tech today -- >> s&p 500 positive. >> there we go even today, the weakness was in apple primarily. look at the semis. nvidia came back positive. and coca-cola, johnson & johnson, procter & gamble, merck, amgen, all were strong. a little bit down today, but overall i would say they were flattish, not necessarily really

detracting look how they rallied late in the day for most of these stocks merck now positive on the day. 3-2 advancing for merck. it tells you there's less concerns about recession today than there was in the middle of last week. it tells you there's less flight to safety. in stocks, that's what you're looking at here. merck, health care, consumer staples names. that's another indication of less fear in the market. the vix is still at $19. overall, this is a constructive day for people who want to make an argument about the soft landing. >> you look at the jobs report, you could take a couple things from it. you could say it's evidence that the labor market is still holding up the other side of that is, as liesman has been saying and i mentioned it multiple times throughout the day today, it was weaker but not weak enough to keep the fed away. one is a positive story to see if the economy is strong

the other is is the economy strong enough? >> it was slightly below expectations enough to make an argument that it's a toss-up whether the federal reserve will continue with aggressive rate hikes based on that number >> bob pisani's last word. that doesit for us let's send it to "overtime" with morgan and jon >> you got your score card on wall street. welcome to "closing bell" overtime i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. we'll get a taste of the action this hour when cannabis company tilray reports results we'll talk to moody's chief economist mark zandi ahead of this week's key inflation data now let's get straight to our market panel joining us now are victoria green and vanu