session. plus, crowdstrike's ceo george kurtz is going to join us, as the company hosts its first ever government summit in washington. and that's an area that's very important for companies these days >> it's very important for companies and you're seeing that secular investment regardless of belt tightening in other areas >> that's going to do it for "overtime. >> "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," hardware hangover. pc sales plunge as the pandemic spending spree grinds to a halt amid worries about a global slowdown pick up steam how big of a head wind is this for the tech trade plus, energy excitement. chatter about a megadeal between exxon and pioneer. would a tieup boost the prospect for a wave of mna in the sector? and hollywood's mario party. the film crushing expectations here and around the world. can super mario jump-start the studios and theater chains ahead of the summer movie? i'm melissa lee, this is "fast

money. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, courtney garcia, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with two big red flags from the tech seconder to. taiwan semi posting its first monthly revenue drop in nearly four years last month. while full quarter sales were up from last year, they were still at the low end of previous guidance and then there's this. pc shipments in q-1 plunging 30% from a year ago. apple among the biggest losers, seeing numbers drop more than 40%. the news sending shares down as much as 2.8% today they slowed the day off by more than a percent and a half. so, what could the headlines portend for big tech let's bring in steve kovach for more on the latest i feel like we sort of new this was going to happen, but maybe this underscores that sort of what we new. >> yeah, mel, so, look pc demand fell dramatically. that's according to the new report we've been talking about it all day from the research firm idc

and that big number. pc shipments down 29% year on year that's for the most recent quarter. but even worse for apple, mac sales down more than 40% for the quarter, though it launched new mac models in january. who knows how much worse could have been without those new models also, this is the trend we've been seeing since last summer. pc demand has collapsed after growing like gang busters earlier in the pandemic. apple was setting mac sales records nearly every quarter for two years straight all that came to a screeching halt, though, as mac sales collapsed 29% in the degs cember quarter of last year and this report impacts other suppliers, like intel and amd and and it's a bad sign for microsoft's windows licensing business but apple is less reliant on pc sales. it's the iphone, more than 50 % of overall sales that's what you have to pay

attention to we'll get earnings on may 4th to see if it was able to maintain demand for the iphone into this year after all those production problems we saw last fall, mel >> is there an upgrade cycle to come, also, in terms of mac, steve, people might be, you know, holding back on buying a new one? >> well, that's not really happening now, because that happened in the first two years of the pandemic. they released the new models with the own homemade chips, when they got rid of intel so, almost the entire line of macs have been refreshed, so anyone who is going to buy one of those refreshed macs bought one, you know, a year or two ago. >> all right, steve, thank you steve kovach so, steve also mentioned the impact potentially on microsoft, you sort of tease this idc report out apple and my haicrosoft, dan. >> this is a really tough headline a few weeks before they're going to report earnings 55% of apple's sales are really iphone when you think about it in the last quarter, they reported less than 70% of sales were pcs

they gained a lot of market share over the last few years. that's probably the better part of the story for apple and if they are losing or coming down year over year at mid single digits, it's not that big of a deal. down 40% year of year, but market share terms, it's not that big of a number, especially relative to the revenues all that being said, if you think about the rest of the supply chain that goes into the smartphones, these are very similar supply chains and all the stuff we're going to talk about with taiwan semi and samsung, that's a bigger issue so, this is a tough headline to trade off of weeks before the earnings report. >> yeah, we're not trading apple on macbooks. i get it we knew where pcs were going to be we knew where apple really has pulled forward a lot of demand but on iphones, on services. and the question for apple, which has outperformed the s&p by 8% even after this pull-back today since the beginning of march. so, we're talking about, is this

a big day for apple? i think the reaction was probably in line as expected, maybe even better than expected. i think it's really just about the pull forward, but i want to watch services i want to watch the parts of the annuity business should you be paying the same multiple for apple today, or in some cases, you know, a slight discount, because i think they are growing earnings than you were a year, year and a half ago. absolutely not that's a world where apple did a lot of great things with financial engineering. issued long bonds, paid back more stock so, i think this isn't a crazy -- it's a piece of the mosaic, but not -- >> i lie ke that. >> spicy >>throwing all that in should we regard services as an annuity business when the macro is a little dicey? are people really going to renew every single app, every single service they've been buying on their iphone when they're trying to cut back? >> possibly not, but that is going to be stickier than people

pushing off new iphones. i think a lot of people take months to cancel subscriptions when you look at apple, we've talked about, is the valuation justified right now? and i think bigger issue, it's not just apple you want to look at when you look at the megacap eight, tbut if you strip them out, it's 18-times earnings. later this year, it's going to become more and more important for you to look at valuation these are very still expensive >> but guy -- these are supposed to be defensive. they've got cash on their balance sheets this is where you want to be nobody is going to give up their iphones, even if times are touch, right >> yeah. good thing that apple and of the s&p 500, otherwise we'd have a problem. no, i love that sound in your voice, you're trying to wind me up here on a monday. i'm not going to take the bait

but i will say this, i mean, people -- this speaks, in my opinion, it doesn't necessarily speak to apple necessarily, but it speaks to global demand for different very high priced products and are we in an environment where people are going to pay up, are they going to say, my old iphone is fine, my old pc is fine and they're not going to do that upgrade cycle everybody talks about. and in that environment, apple trading at 26 times next year's numbers with, again, mid to singles digit revenue growth, eps growth, designing margins, strong, but declining nonetheless. the stock was $1253 1/2 or so months ago stopped at a level we thought it could get to and we bounced nicelies it bounced a lot more than i thought, but this stock, if you look over the last year and a half or so, has been, melissa, upper left to lower right. >> noted, guy. but i have a question about the consumer we talk about the consumer in terms of the high end consumer,

the consumer that's willing to pay $100 plus for a pair of yoga pants and that consumer is going to fair well if this is a high price point product, which it is, and we've been saying that the high end consumer is still doing okay, why should we be so concerned about them saying, you know, we're not going to upgrade tim? >> if you own an iphone 12, the 14 is probably something you want, but i think we're getting to a place where -- and i'm not one of these people that felt apple needs to continue to innovate, but i think that the refresh dynamic isn't quite -- i think the demand and the, you know, the fomo isn't quite there. i think we have a place where we are convinced that apple's created this hardware as a service dynamic. it just gets back to, this is a stock that's not going to get away from you on the upside. that's really what i think we've been -- i've been waiting for that real commentary that says, we had our pull forward and we see some demand weakness and we haven't heard it. when we hear it for the

smartphone, it's going to be a big deal that's where you'll get some read-through but this isn't the headline on apple. i just think that apple has owned the market because rates are gone lower and people have been defensive >> listen, if you put this together as a bit of a mosaic or something like that -- >> stew. >> if you were to see china sales weaker than expected iphone sales weaker than expected, services sales weaker than expected, those are the things that would -- >> we see that >> well, i do. i think you're going to see -- it's interesting, the reporting, i think, on may 4th, a little later than they normally do here and there's just so many cross currents as it relates to what's going on with china, supply chains, the costs associated with it, and it's interesting. i was looking at the december quarter just a bit ago they bought back 25 -- or returned $25 billion to shareholders in just that quarter and when you think about it that e, that stock was down this is one of the last big

nasdaq stocks to bottom. it made a 52-week low in the first week of january and it was down 15% in q-4 of last year now it's up, what, 26%, 27%. be interesting to see how much they bought back in an environment where the rate situation is different, right, the cost of capital in general when they were able to raise tons of cash, they were, like -- this company has -- since tim cook instituted the cash return in 2012, they've bought back, i think, like, a half a trillion dollars worth of stock, which is truly astounding >> which is good for investors >> it is good. >> you got to put. >> in this quarter, it will be interesting to see -- >> you can't borrow at zero and buy back stock anymore that was the smart thing to do >> that's my point it will be interesting to see what they did in the a quarter where rates are much higher and the stock was much higher. turning now to tesla, shares down about a third of a percent. the stock had been down nearly 5% at lows this after the company slashed

prices for the fifth time this year and it's what, only april now? coming about a week before tougher ev tax credit rules are set to take effect our phil lebeau has all the details. phil >> this is one of the moves that surprised nobody if you talk to people that track the company on wall street, everybody says the same thing. yeah, we figured they were going to be cutting prices weren't sure they would be doing it this soon but that's what tesla has done let me recap this. this is the fifth time that tesla has slashed prices here in the united states this year. cumulative, going back to january, the model y prices have come down about 20%. model 3 prices have come down about 11%. so, it raises two questions. one, how much will this stoke demand the company, as you look at their annual deliveries, it delivered 422,000 vehicles in the first quarter, the target is

for 1.8 million this year. does this really juice the market remember, wait times have been dropping for the 3 and the y and the other question, what does this do for gross auto margins? i realize we're not going to get to q-2 auto margins number until well into august, but if you take a look at where they have been trending and the expectation for the first quarter, which, by the way, we get in a couple weeks, that 20.5% is the line in the sand. when i've talked about analysts, all of them say the same thing you go below 20.5%, that's going to put pressure on shares of tesla. above that, it's a far different story. as you mentioned, melissa, the new ev tax credit rules go into effect next week next tuesday, as a matter of fact that's when all of the automakers will report to the treasury department, they'll say, this model is eligible for 3750 or 7500 or nothing at all and we already know there are some tesla models that will not

qualify for the full $7500, including the standard range model 3, which is the one that they've cult the prices by about $1,000 so, this is tesla saying to buyers, in essence, okay, you may not get the full tax rebate, but we believe that these lower prices are going to attract buyers and that's what they're doing here >> so, how does that stack up to the closest competitor to the model 3, the bolt. does that qualify for the tax credit >> the bolt euv likely does qualify for the tax credit but then, when you look at a vehicle like the hyundai ionic 5, which we haven't gotten the final word on that, but those are manufactured in korea, odds are they don't qualify for any type of a tax credit so, you know, there's -- this is -- every month we'll get this record, melissa, and able to say, okay, this -- these number of vehicles for this manufacturer qualify for x dollars, whether it's 3750 or

7500 >> phil, thank you phil lebeau. >> you bet >> guy, what is your take on this >> well, i mean, they've been -- to tesla's defense, not that i'm an apologist, but they have said for awhile, probably since last fall, that margins would come down that line of demarcation that phil says, 207.5%, my instinct says it will broke that. i think 18.5%, 19% is probably in the cards, just given everything we're seeing in terms of the consumer and the economy. in terms of the stock, i'll be the first to say it, i've said it dozens of times now i thought the right thing to do into earnings last quarter was to sell the stock. that was incorrect since kwently, it traded right to the 200-day moving average. i think it was 220 or so and it got down to that 165 level, almost to the screws, but this bounce has gotten us less

than we got last time. the stock is still down 55% from the november 2021 high, and it feels as if that 165 level is in play again, mel. >> yeah. tim? >> first of all, guy, we're pulling for you on the s.a.t., just, everyone can see his s.a.t. books -- >> what did i do now what happened? >> you have the s.a.t. book. >> s.a.t. book he's had it there forever. >> pulling for you some interpretations as the price cuts are bullish, and tesla is trying to expedite the demise of the internal combustion engine. they are trying to put the screw s to the competitors piper had a chart out there that says every time wait times get below 4 to 6 weeks on the model 3, they start cutting prices, and they do this, because they're playing offense, not defense. again, an interpretation i'm not chasing this i think the stock is wildly expensive and i think there will be some demand, but you know, tesla is so far ahead that they can probably push the market

around >> and you can be in both camps simultaneously you can believe they're on the offensive, but still, they're going to cut -- they're going to, you know, be overvalued and not worth buying >> yeah, there's two ways to look at them cutting prices. one, because they're not getting enough demand and they have to cut prices, which is one opinion. the other is that, yeah, they're on the offense, they want to cut prices here because they have and they have the margins to do so it's going to be extremely -- an issue for the competitors who are burning cash they don't have the cash to burn, and tesla does they can probably put some of their competitors out a lot quicker. that's probably part of the reason of what they're trying to do >> i'm hard-pressed to see, like, the bullish version of price cuts if we were talking about apple, we talked about for price cuts for premier products, it would just be another conversation it would be a totally other conversation so, for me, when you think about cars, this looming recession we have, what itcosts to finance

purchase of this stature now, it can't be a good thing. i'll just say that, that chart, if they can pull up a five-year chart, this is still -- i know that a lot of you guys were emboldened by the 50% rally it had, this is still one of the worst-looking charts in the entire stock market. it's a series of lower highs, a series of lower lows the ceo of the company is doing five different things at once. he's the ceo of five different companies at once. and if we do have this recession that everyone is expecting here, i just don't know how a company like this is going to avoid some of the issues. we might be talking about eight price cuts this year >> on the fifth price cut, this price cut, the stock didn't do much >> it was down 5% this morning >> yeah, but it recovered. >> i know, but they come in for it there's a bit of a cult following. i don't know if you follow the stock over the last ten years, the -- it's not like every other stock in the market. there's a different thing going

on i don't know if you know this, but the ceo of the company, also the ceo of twitter, changed his name on twitter today. >> it 's harry bo, a line over the o, lz. that's what he is on twitter right now. that's the ceo of -- >> i'm not going to try to pronounce that one >> he's messing around with the other company. >> thank you for spelling it out. >> yes >> rather than saying it folks at home, get out your pen and paper. >> just check it out on paper. coming up, could there be a mega energy deal what it means for the sector straight ahead. plus, micron topping the tape today after one competitor cuts production. we'll debate that when "fast money" returns inner voice: (kombucha brewer): when i started my new kombucha business... ... i thought there would be a lot more kombucha... ...and a lot less business. inner voice (graphic designer): as a new

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welcome back to "fast money. pioneer natural resources, the third-best performer in the s&p today, after a report said that exxonmobil has held early talks to acquire the company cnbc has reached out to both firms for comment. the deal would be exxon's biggest since buying mobil in

1999 speculation helping the oih gain today, even as crude oil prices fell guy, do you think the backdrop is there for a wave of mna >> yeah, and i think tim would probably agree i think he stated as much. the balance sheets of so many companies are in a position where they can do things like this, or, conversely, they can use their stock as currency and do it that route i happen to think the administration, the current administration will lose their collective minds if something like this happens, i mean, last i looked, pioneer was in the shale tracking business, which i'm sure is frowned upon, but you know what, it speaks to the underlying strength of the industry and i don't know if necessarily this will happen i think if it did happen, the deal would be north of $65 billion by the way, but i think it's noise, but i think that noise is justified, given what's going on in the space. >> for sure. i want to believe that energy companies are thinking differently than they have at other cycles, and i also think that -- i don't think this deal

is going to get done right here. look, unless they are really sloppy and i wonder why they'd be leaking this out there pioneer doesn't trade at a discount and typically when you see the takeout kind of plays, you've seen the targets be trading at some discount to have not a 40% to 50% premium we know the assets are blue chip and they're some of the best if you are a shareholder, this is what you've been waiting and holding pxd, because this is a takeout play will there be others yes. i think they're going tos wait for the cycle to put back. >> courtney, what do you think of this potential deal >> yeah, i agree i think it's too early that this deal is going to happen, right, because even in the news that came out, right, i mean, this is kind of a whisper deal, they're saying it probably won't happen until later this year or next if it happens you look at an exxon, the energy companies, they had record profits last year, and they have done these large mergers in the past if this deal happens or not,

this is probably bigger picture, there are going to be somebody they're scooping up or trying to scoop up, if it's pioneer is the question. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next >> one semi's pain is another one's gain micron heading higher after a fellow tech giant cuts production but can the move higher last plus, get ready for bank earnings our next guest says it may soon be time for the big lenders to pay up the deposit details ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. micron topping the tape today, soaring 8% after rival samsung announced it was slashing memory chip production. the cuts could set itself up for recovery in the second half of the year we saw others in related industries also gain on this report, dan. >> it's an interesting headline, right? so, you got this glut, the whole industry is acknowledging it, but then you see, you know, samsung and taiwan semi traded poorly then we have western dig and micron, the clear beneficiaribe. but i guess the backdrop is going back to whatter with were talking about in the a-block, maybe we are having a consumer electronics slowdown -- >> cut inventory and there's still not enough demand to take up that? >> it could be

which could still be a good thing. >> better position >> correct again, i know we were talking about micron a couple weeks ago. technically, looks pretty decent the semis in general, since we're talking about it, i think the outperformance in q-1 is clearly noted, especially as an early cycle sort of play, but there's a lot of cross currents and the fundamentals are clearly, you know, i mean, they're not that clear, actually, the technicals look good, though >> clearly, expectations are priced in that wie going to get a rebound. and that the cyclicality, how you buy them, this is what you do, and -- taiwan semi, the other side of it today, i mean, their numbers weren't that great. and they largely guided to a second half 23 inflection point, or a real pickup in demand now that's being pushed out. the numbers i saw, tdown 19% q-1 down 4% year of year '23 is still going to be a down year and maybe we haven't hit that bottom yet. those are the conflicting. it's nice to see inventory taken

out. nice to see price rationalization and the biggest players doing what they do but maybe things aren't quite as good as people have priced in, and that's what -- you want any chance to buy the stock on weakness, the only caveat to that is if taiwan semi turns on the chinese risk that's a stock that everyone should want to own and somewhere around here, which is 16 times, but i think you can probably get it cheaper, because i just think semis have run so far. >> what's the china risk in taiwan semi? >> i just think -- at some point, it's treated as if it could be in the way of china and at times when we were also painting taiwan semi in the u.s. from the chips perspective, from the chips act, seeing as at least, i think there are people in washington that see taiwan semi, certainly not as a company that would be first friendly to the u.s. but to china. we've seen the stock have a discount put on it around china. options traders betting the micron rally has legs. mike khouw has the action, he's on the fast line tonight

mike >> yeah, so, micron technology, we saw 2.8 times the average daily call volume. that's one of the top ten most active single stock options in contract terms, at least, and the busiest contracts were the weekly 67 strike calls over 20,000 of those trading fo. buyers of those betting that the big bounce could continue through the end of the week. and the second-most active contract, the at the money 64 strike calls a lot of bullish bets. >> mike, thank you for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, big bank earnings right around the corner. it could be time for them to pay up we'll be joined by former fdic chair seeley bear for her take on how the banking crisis will impact regional results. don't go anywhere. much more "fast money" right after this get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this.

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money. another check on the markets today. stocks closing well off the lows of the dadata the dow jumping its seventh positive session in eight. the nasdaq just barely closing out in the red well, bank stocks higher across the board as the countdown begins for the tickoff of earnings season. friday, we get wells fargo, blackrock, pnc next week, we will hear from regionals. those numbers could be quite ugly our next guest fears another hantdful of banks will likely go belly up before the end of the year she sheila bair is with us thank you for being here >> thank you for having me >> when the regionals start reporting, what will you be looking for? >> well, i think -- so, i think everybody's focused on their level of uninsured deposits, i don't think this is a problem unique with regional banks

there's been a lot of language around this. the vast majority of all banks are just fine, but there are a handful that have -- still have high reliance on uninsured deposits though that's changing we're seeing some of that readjust and convert into insured. and they've got a lot of hgm they have a lot of cre, too. the cre is going to be a focus for all banks, and a need for better clarity, perhaps, around what's in that cre, how much of it is off exposure, which could get ugly >> there's a number that was thrown out by the current fdic chair at the end of last year or maybe it was beginning of this year in a speech and he said there's -- combined in unrealized losses available for sale and held to maturity, total $620 billion at the end of -- >> right >> 2022. how should we think about that number in terms of, you mentioned the vast majority of banks are fine, in terms of concentration, and where that stands right now

>> right so, it's not a problem to have unmarked losses in your portfolio. if you have the attention -- the intention and the ability to hold them to ma clur sure matur. you won't. there will be economic losses, but in terms of eroding capital, there should not be. you can redeem them. and soen banks that have stable funding, a lot of insured deposits, loyal uninsured deposits, long-term debt, it's not a problem. i think there needs to be more rigor, particularly among the auditors, in terms of scrutinizing what's been held into hold maturity, in terms of the bank have the ability to hold them to maturity. that was not the case with silicon valley bank. >> you mentioned commercial real estate and a lot of people are focused on that. not only did the banks extend a lot of loans, but the assets are worth less

so, how do you think about this problem at this point in the cycle? >> yeah, so, i think certain segments, multifamily, we need more housing, so, i'm thinking that's -- i don't think -- you can't group all cre together a couple of things, there's refinance risk, there's a lot of it that is going to be refinancing over the next few years, so, the ability of the bar were it to be able to refinance at a rate that's affordable, rates much higher now. i think we should think about that again, we need more tran transparency the big banks, too, about what's office -- cre is a big category. some is just fine, some of it, office in urban areas, is presume bill under significant distress, so, we do need clarity about what that looks like but cre, there was a big percentage of bank lending, the office component of that is much less and if banks are properly reserved against losses, you know, these are risks that can be managed but i do think we need more

tranc transparency >> sheila, this is courtney, thank you for joining us so, there's been this question of, do the banks need to raise their depolz sit raterates. and i guess my question is, how much of that do you think will happen especially with the bigger banks right now, who, i think a lot of people are looking more at safety and are they going to get away with lower deposits because they're the safer option right now? whether that's the case is or not, i'm curious on your take. >> yeah, so, i think this -- for the big banks, earnings should be pretty good for this quarter, but the pressure to raise deposit rates is there and so i think in the second quarter, you're going to see a lot more compression of interest rate margins. a lot of competition from market funds right now. some of that is healthy. some of it, i think, is distorted, because the fed is providing massive, you know, massive returns to money market funds through their overnight reverse repo facility.

it's basically the regive lent of a bank reserve account that the fed treated. many market funds are heavy users. nice, generous returns that is creating uneven playing field, i think, for banks, because banks have regulatory requirements for reserve accounts and money market funds don't. so, that's something the fed should address i think they should lower the rate they're paying on the reverse repo facility now. and that could help ease pressure, but that said, those interest rates on deposits need to come up it's the right thing to do, but it's also, you know, the competition is going to force it but still is not a problem loan rates still should be able to make a healthy margin narrower, but again, with the vast majority of the banks, i don't think it's going to be a problem. >> sheila, thank you >> thank you >> sheila bair what are you expecting from the big banks, guy when i hear deposit rates will have -- savings rates, whatever it is, they have to go up, i hear nims go down.

>> i'm not sure -- listen, i'm not sure the big banks are going to pay more. you know, they're in a position now where people are going to say, you know what, i'll forego a percent, a percent and a half for the perceived safety of being in a jpmorgan, you know, wells fargo, bank of america, citi, as opposed to the regional banks. so, yeah, they should do a lot of things, banks, i get it in a real world, they should raise rates for people i just don't think it's going to happen even if it does happen, let's just say, the environment that banks find themselves in is challenging to say the least i think that regulation is coming whether they like it or not. the economy is slowing, whether they like it or not. and the earnings potential is going to be impacted by that, so, this quarter might be fine i think guidance is clearly what you want to hear and i don't think it's going to be particularly good >> it's funny. we're going to keep going back to this commercial real estate thing and talk about the refin refinancing, the wall of stuff and we're going to talk about the weakness and some of the dynamics on the back side of the

pandemic i'm looking at a chart right here, commercial mortgage holders by firm type excluding multifamily, when you think about this, 61% is held by banks, 13% held by life insurers, 8% held by reits when you look at the damage that's been done in the banks, the xlf is down 20%, you look at the kre, the regional banks are down 35%, you look at these life insurers, we talked about them a little bit, what's going on there? they look like they fell off the cliff. and we talked about these, they look like they're going out of business for some reason, something's being priced right here. into the print, and we talked about this last week, these are not great presses, right, into earnings season, because they are discounting a lot of bad news, we just don't know what comes next or so and i guess what i would say, the large banks, they're trying to put into the bottom here. if they were to rally out, i think you do want to sell them into the late spring and summer. >> the balance sheets are in good shape and the problem is, they're just

not cheap enough i -- like, i own banks, so, i own citi, bank of america, and jp i'm not going anywhere i wish i would have traded them around a little bit. but we know that net margins, interest margins have peaked we know that net interest income in q-1 was down. wasn't down dramatically, we know also, the other side of this, bond prices were up 1% to 2% in q-1. those will help the securities portfolios they're trading at 7 1/2 to 8 times earnings, where they are historically around 10 is that enough of a discount to go chase them? i think i'm going to wait. >> all right, coming up, grab your overalls and plungers the world's favorite plumbing scoring a big win over the weekend. we'll bring you the blockbusting trades next. plus, the chart master joins us to dig into the industrials are these names heading for a breakout or a breakdown? stick around that and much more when "fast money" returns your shipping manager left to “find themself.”

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welcome back to "fast money. it was lights, camera, rally for shares of cinemark today as the super mario brothers movie smashed records over the weekend. julia has an update from the box

office >> melissa, this weekend's numbers show that family movie-goers are back and it is very good news for those theater stocks super mario brothers was the number one movie worldwide, with a $377 million global box office take that's the biggest opening weekend ever for an animated title. and, of course, it's a win for cnbc's parent company comcast and illumination studio, which spent $100 million to produce the film cinemark, you see the shares shooting higher, about 6.5%. reported that it had its highest single day of attendance since christmas day of 2019. it this all bolds well for theaters going forward as does the fact that amazon, which released ben affleck's "air" on 3500 screens plans to open at least ten films thee yat rickly every year.

stronger than expected fist quarter box office results the highest first quarter box office since the pandemic. b riley forecasting a path to pre-pandemic levels. the number of wide releases is set for 100 this year. that's nearing 2019 levels and going to see the return of some big franchises such as guardians of the galaxy, fast and furious, and mission impossible so, all of these pieces, the number of films, the familiar names, they spell a continued rebound, if audiences like the movies, melissa. >> all right, youu julia, thank. so, maybe the death of the movie theater was too early, was too overblown, whatever they say about the death of the mall, which still hasn't happened, tim. >> well -- given all of the choices and all of the entertainment at home and distractions, the fact that $377 million over five days when the expectations were for about 150, it's great news for movie

theaters are you going out to buy movie theaters stocks? please don't i think this is a dynamic, you have pent up demand, a multigenerational appeal, you have great collaborators including our parent company, and that's part of what's going on here. i mean -- super mario, i mean, you dress up as super mario -- >> elon did. on "snl. >> it always goes back to elon >> why did you allow him to do that you knew he was going to mention elon again >> i should have known >> i didn't know that mario was a plumber -- i had no idea, guy, i'm sure you did did you know i don't know >> of course guy did >> he's played it, his kids have played it. >> there a number of different ways, or places i can go with that i'll say this. there should be more plumbers, have you tried to get a plumber recently you can't get those cats on the phone. they're doing extraordinarily well i'm with tim i mean, cinemark, the stock, has

doubled since january from 8 to 16 and change. you do have a nice little double bottom going back from october of, i think, 2020. and you have to wonder how much is left. and maybe this stock can sort of eek up to 20 bucks, but i don't know, again, this speaks to a societal thing, where, who is going to -- i mean, honestly i mean, maybe it's just me you couldn't pay me to go see mario brothers or sisters, for that matter. >> you hardly leave that basement >> studying for the s.a.t., though rigorous it's a tough test, guy, good luck >> one of the first tech stocks, first media stocks to report on the 18th, and interestingly, we're going to start looking at out-year estimates and expectations trade about 25 times that, it's like, pretty reasonable, up 15% on the year. coming up, an inside look at the industrials, is it time to dig into this trade? carter worth joins us for just

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opportunities. register at cnbcevents.com. meantime, shares of cat climbed back some of its losses, leading the dow higher today the industrials have been the worst performers over the past week, and the chart master thinks they're headed for an industrial-sized breakdown carter worth joinings now. carter what are you looking at >> i mean, obviously, an important sector not the biggest sector, fifth-largest in the s&p at about 8.4% weight. big namesthat everyone knows, of course like caterpillar but what we know is relative performance stalled almost, well, it stalled in '08, if you can believe this, more than a decade ago let's look at a few charts and try to figure out the immediate. you're looking at a two-panel. that's an all data chart, the beginning of classifications in 1989 and, of course, on the top, industrials have been going straight up. but they peaked in march of 2008 on a relative basis. just consider this

your annualizing since then at 6.1% versus the s&p at 6.8 you could say, so what but a million dollars in the industrials is 4.4 now, a million dollars in the s&p is 6.3. it matters over time that's the beauty of compounding. the here and now charts are what's really important. xli, the spider etf, we're toying with the prospects of breaking the uptrend line in effect since the october low, and if you look at some longer term charts with different trend lines, yourl see them here, the trend line that's in effect since the covid low is really in play we think we're headed down to it, that's 8%, 9% from here. we don't like the group. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter worth of worth charting i mean, if you think there are bumps ahead for the economy, or more, i should say, then you probably -- it fits the narrative, the charts. >> it does but i think you can pick and choose within industrials what you like and don't like. like, i know caterpillar has a lot of negativity right now, but

on the flip side, there's a lot of positives about deere, when you look in the agricultural space. you want to be strategic about where you're putting the money right now. >> defense stocks to me are very defensive in a market like this. and i -- i would be gravitating towards your lmts, your raytheons. you look at the story, as carter said, the xli had two points where january kind of hit a peak, in march, it had a peak. this is relative performance to the s&p. it's already traded off relative to the s&p about 7.5% since march. so, they have been weak. i think the headline that really hurt was that ism number last year and they're all trading down i don't think you need to chase them here. >> guy, last week, on thursday, a holiday-shortened week, we had a chart of the week and it was wee -- sorry, w-e-a-k that's what you get for waking up at 3:00 in the morning, it was caterpillar, down 8% >> yeah, look, people will point

to it and say it's choop on valuation and it is cheap, except it can get expensive very quick. and tim is right to point out the ism numbers, which has been a disaster and you can overlay ism and the lag effect cat stock will have and it seems to have a date with $200 i'll say this. you did yoman's work this morning on the squawk box. always -- >> would it be yowoman >> yoperson. i i'll take the colintmpme up next, final trades.h side o td the world through their lens and invest accordingly. you can call us christmas eve at four o'clock in the morning. we're gonna always make sure that you have all of the financial tools and support to secure your financial future. that means a lot for my community and for every community.

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final trade time guy? >> birthdays don't rest on the weekend and yesterday, nancy, our floor director for over ten years, celebrated hers happy birthday nancy tim was in my head rtx. >> i wish we had a camera on her. she's blushing tim? >> nancy's the best. happy birthday constellation brands reassuring numbers, pretty good guide for '24 and conservative play >> courtney? >> also echo the happy birthday, nancy. we talked about energy earlier

the fundamentals continue to look strong. it has underperformed the markets this year. i think occidental is the way. >> dan >> i'm going to wait until next year to wish her happy birthday. j xly >>erk until the end. "mad none" starts right now.i w. >> mad money starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. i am kramer. good to have money. you will make friends? i'm trying to help you make money. my job is to educate at teach.