that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thanks for watching. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european stocks open higher after the long weekend european mining stocks make strong gains despite weakness in chinese consumer and factory inflation. bmw sales fall in the first quarter, but ev sales power

ahead jumping 80% year over year and chinese tech giant alibaba reveals the answer to chatgpt with integration across all apps the regulator issues a swift warning on data legitimacy good morning very happy tuesday to you. hope you had a wonderful long weekend if you had the easter break to celebrate here in europe this morning, we are trading higher stoxx 600 up .60% after the break. u.s. markets, of course, were trading yesterday. it was a flat session. not a huge amount to go off in

terms of the pick up from wall street we have seen strong trade in asian stocks after dovish signals from the bank of korea and the bank of japan. we have a ton to look out for on the data front and earnings front. a few things to highlight as we kickoff the program. the cpi report coming out tomorrow in the u.s. fmoc minutes and gdp data on thursday and start of q1 earnings the bank heavyweights delivering results on friday. wells fargo and bank of america due to deliver results we have chinese data and all eyes on washington, d.c. where the imf and world bank are holding the spring meetings. joumanna is there and she will bring us interviews from the forums. let's break it down across the region we have green for the majority

of reegions in europe. ftse 100 is .80% dax is trading .50% higher red on the board for the ibex 35 from the sector, an interesting split is emerging. basic resources and autos out in front. the china sensitive sectors performing well. we did get the chinese inflation data overnight which proves slowing of inflation data in the country. why is that a positive for the sectors? because the sectors are taking a view of the policy response from the chinese government not necessarily the case, but perhaps factored into the trade. on the down side is food and bev. u.s. futures here for the wall street open green on the board, but muted overall in terms of the moves

higher this follows the flat session yesterday for u.s. stocks. fairly muted start to trade indicated by the current futures. let's look at where the dollar stands this morning the dollar trading significantly weaker against the swiss franc down .50%. euro is trading firmly against the greenback. sterling is trading weaker weakness is the theme so far this morning at the end of last week, we got the non-farm payroll report. it was robust. markets are leaning to the expectation the fed could hike a further 25 basis points at the next meeting what does it mean for the dollar let's welcome john harding to the program. john, welcome. john, let's pick up on the fed expectation and ask about the dollar the market leaning to the 25

basis point hike in may. we could see the fed pause after that what does this mean for the greenback? >> i think the fed will be reacting to incoming data and market conditions. the data is in line, but we have this rally continuing in sentiment and no further signs of turmoil, then it will tack on another 25 points. the debate is the core inflation, not just the cpi report tomorrow, but the pce which was hot in the prior number the fed is leading the narrative here i what the dollar is supposed to do is lying on the scenario of what is good for the dollar is bad news is bad news we are fearing a re-heating of the cycle and inflation.

what keeps dollar down is the current environment of the cycle extending here with no sense of crisis maybe the fed hikes another 25 basis points the cycle is essentially done here i largely agree with that. i lean toward a little more risk of dollar down side here in the next few weeks unless we get negative surprises >> interesting when you talk about a dollar down side being the best-case scenario, what levels are we talking here >> if we look at euro/dollar, the extension if we close above 110 and extension of 112 and 112.50 we are in the process of the dollar turning lower the negative or the potential positive for the dollar is we are working into recession eventually it is a frustrating wait for the negative scenario in the

financial markets and conditions the typical source of dollar support. it is a difficult process of turning the dollar around to the down side which will wait on the other side of the eventual fed response so many steps need to line up before the dollar weaker story. >> i'm looking at the dollar/swiss franc down .50% against the swiss franc. how do you think about the safe haven attributes of the swiss franc against the dollar given the turmoil of the sector and also what is in store of the down side risk for the dollar you outlined >> i think we have chaotic financial markets. the dollar is the safe safe eve -- safe haven this does trade as a safe haven, but it is a heavily managed currency you will see the swiss national

bank in there to push back especially if inflation is continuing to fade as an issue for switzerland. they were using currency policy and intervention as part of the inflation fighting tools so they didn't have to do it all by the interest rate mechanism. in terms of the turmoil, the dollar performs best. >> let's switch to sterling. it has been a performer. the best trading currency this year why is that your view and what is next for sterling >> i've had a hard time with gauging where sterling should be i've been negative for the currency for some time which led to the crisis last year. that is the down side issues which were kcorralled by the new government it is a question we need to

figure out where sterling is against the dollar it is heavily discounted. there were concerns in the uk economy and headwinds from energy which faded it could come back next winter it has an easy space to do well because things didn't turn out as poorly aspe expected. i think it is a case of maybe too heavily discounted and the downside scenarios have not been happening as to one has feared. >> it will continue to plot along? >> it will plot along. we go into a more negative scenario and we work to the session that is incoming i think it will be a more delayed wait and bearish

expectation on the timing. then sterling will start to do poorly it has a structural back drop. the energy issue is constantly there. it could crop up any time. that is a seasonal thing and that is something to look for in the fall and winter period. >> something we have to talk more about later in the year john, let's shift your attention to asia. the japanese yen sliding after the new bank of japan governor came out and said he wants to stick to the bank of japan's ultra monetary policy. a dovish steer what do you think of the yen and where we go from here what do you think of the governor's policy and the new outlook? >> it seems boring so far with the talk of continuity if you look at the longer term, there is some convergence with

the crisis in the yen last year. some convergence to the monetary policy in japan and the rest of the world if you look beyond the next year. whether that is the rest of central banks conceding to fight inflation coming down or the bank of japan normalizing. one of the two has to happen this seems to be a dovish signal with the current conditions extending and some sense we avoided a banking turmoil here the yen might have a window of weakening further broadly speaking i see a firmer yen over the coming 6 to 12 months as i see the converge trade playing out the yen will fall quite a bit in the next 12 months. >> john, when you look across the space, where do you see the compelling trades? >> a great question. a lot of uncertainty now

this sounds like me weaseling out here it really depends on the run-up in the fmoc meeting. the tension between we are worried about a crisis with the banking turmoil here it does mean not just the banking turmoil, but the credit crunch will be a slowing of the economy. it is a frustrating wait we will see what companies are saying with the guidance i see room for dollar weakness just afraid to jump on that aggressively or try to ride it for too long at this part of the cycle. >> hopefully we get insight you are looking for with the big banks. john hardy at saxo bank. chinese consumer inflation grew at the slowest pace in march. rising 0.7% in a year. this underlines an uneven

economy. sam baddas filed this report >> reporter: china is dealing with the opposite of inflation the latest data showing prices cooling. consumer prices missed expectations the lowest reading since september of 2021. 0.7% this was the story of falling food prices which makes up the crunch of the food basket. the fastest drop since june of 2020 with the producer price index. manufacturing has been slower to recover than the services side as export growth has been sluggish and near weakness in the property sector. the data points to soft thedomec demand and further indication of an uneven recovery

this allows the pmoc more head the headroom to ease if needed now it is the wait-and-see mode. in the meantime, while lower inflation is perhaps a good frontal bo problem to have, it may bode poorly for the u.n we get trade data out this week and latest gdp next tuesday. in singapore, i'm sam baddas back to you. and longer data at jgb yields after the bank of japan governor showed no change to the ultra policy the term began on sunday and said it is appropriate for the policy stance as inflation had not hit 2%

euada said there were fluctuations in the banking sector >> translator: in the united states and europe, there was a growing sense of unease with the background of financial institutions the rapid response of the authorities in each country spread the recognition that this is an individual problem i think the market is regaining composure. south korea central bank act anned in line to hold its policy rate steady at 3.5% for the second time in a row the bok says economic growth will slow more than expected this year below 4.6%. the imf and world bank meeting kicks off in washington today bringing chiefs together weeks after the potential banking crisis the managing director warned the global economy faces the weakest prospects in over 30 years the imf will release the latest

world economic outlook report later today. speaking to the u.s. colleagues, the outgoing head bank says they are facing a lose-lose battle with high inflation and slowing growth. >> we feel we are in a lose-lose situation. if the central bank keeps raising interest rates, their goal is to slow the consumption within the economy and slowdown and you end with a negative output from negative outcome from gpd -- gdp if they cut, it raises a whole set of different problems. we know the result of that that hurts people at the bottom of the income scale. inflation is the most harmful form of tax. >> we will bring you special coverage from the imf spring meeting this week.

we will hear from pierre from the imf. the economy commissioner and the ecb governors with many others in store and due to speak with joumanna in d.c. for the week. coming up on the program, alibaba is the latest chinese tech giant to reveal plans for the chatgpt competitor we will have details after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs. let's get to corporates in focus. bmw reported an 80% jump in ev sales in the first quarter overall delivery fell by 1.5% during the period. airbus has delivered 127 aircraft so far this year with 61 planes delivered in march the firm added it also booked 20 orders last month. norwegian air has strong

booking momentum this year the company reported 1.5 million passengers up 60% compared to last year in the banking space, swiss lawmakers will hold a special session to question the government on its decision to provide up to 109 billion swiss francs for the swiss takeover of credit suisse. lawmakers were not consulted on the use of taxpayer money to save the bank. now shares in ubs and credit suisse are trading higher this morning. in the tech space, shipments of apple computers fell in the first quarter of the year 40.5%. the share of the pc market dropping to 7.2%. all top computer makers suffered from falling consumer demand

apple shares fell which results in a drop for the last quarter of the year in 2022. shares in micron jumped after the cuts announced samsung will cut to a meaningful level after previously resisting following competitors in reducing output as demand s softens. alibaba reveals a chat ba.i. bot. it will start with the workplace communications and software. china's regulator said measures should be taken to prevent discrimination and false information on services. providers will be held responsible for the legitimacy of data to train the systems

arjun has been covering this story and joins me on set. arjun, how does alibaba's chatgpt compare? >> this is released for beta testing. it has a few functions they integrated it in two products the one business message app it can draft documents and othe tasks. it has not come out for the free-for-all as chatgpt has at this point that is interesting to develop that speaks to the way the chinese firms have to tread carefully with this a.i. technology because of the concerns it could generate content which may be deemed sensitive or upset

alexa-style product. it can give recipes out and tell children stories this is less controversial approach very early stages for alibaba and no doubt over the coming weeks and months which they will develop the capabilities >> what should we make of the warning or message from the regulator and the fact this message came out on the same day that alibaba has announced all of the new information about the launch of the bot? >> impeccable timing they were ready with the host of issues i was talking in february when we heard that the chinese companies were going to come out

with chatgpt it would be closely watched by the government this has the potential to concern them with the potential to generate images of possibly the president or saying anything negative to the government if you read the draft rules, it is interesting parts about the type of content that is allowed on the platforms for example, the content generated should reflect the core values of socialism and must not contain aversion to state power. you are seeing this is something that is not new. it happens across the chinese internet landscape across various products you see the first of the kind rules aimed specifically at a.i. and data protection and the way companies can use algorithms and deep factkes and various areas. you see the regulator approach of the narrow fashion.

the rules with data protection and a.i. rules and focusing on gen generative a.i. >> let me shift gears here bitcoin crossing above the 30,000 mark. what do we know about who is buying and why investor interest is back in bitcoin >> a few things that play here for me the first stems from the banking crisis and ideological rally as i like to call it where people lost faith in the financial system in the u.s. dollar. we'll park money in bitcoin. the second is the expectation that rate hikes may not be as aggressive which is helpful for the risky assets the third is the bitcoin specifically in a year's time, there is an event with bitcoin miners and

rewards given to them is cut in half that reduces the amount on the market and that is significant for bitcoin. this happens every four years. we are away from that now. you will see the spikes between the last half of 2020 in may in april of 2019 and may of 2019 with the run up to june and then the rally. that is getting people excited for the bitcoin rally. >> super clear i guess one of the questions is institutional investors will revisit bitcoin or whether it is those already supportive a arjun, thank you. the chinese military drills around the island are irresponsible acts after beijing started three days of exercises over the weekend in the response

to the president tsai's visit to the u.s. and meeting with the u.s. lawmakers french president emmanuel macron said europe should not be a vessel with the tension with the u.s. and china over taiwan he made the comments and added it would be a trap for europe to get caught in crises that are not ours. coming up on "street signs," u.s. banks suffered in the first quarter. we look ahead to the earnings season next.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european stocks open higher after the long weekend tracking gains in asian equities after the dovish signal from the bank of japan and bank of korea

and chinese inflation at an 18-month low despite consumer and factory inflation. wall street eyes a muted open with the inflation data and looking ahead to the start of earnings season. chinese tech giant alibaba reveals the answer to chatgpt and integration across apps, but the swiss regulator issues a warning on data legitimacy we're about an hour and a half into the european trading session. the first of the week after the long easter break. it is green for the most part. european equities off to a decent start ftse 100 up .40% .90% higher for the french

market ftse mib up .80% a lag in the spanish market. overall, positive momentum here in europe. this as wall street and investors on this side of the pond brace p for a pretty packe week cpi due out and fmoc minutes and a number of chinese economic data and start to q1 heavyweights to report on friday all of this as d.c. takes focus with the imf and world bank spring meetings. a lot in the market this week. let's look at how the dollar is trading right now we are down about .60% against the swiss franc. the dollar weaker against the euro and sterling. euro trading at 109 sterling is the best currency this year as we discussed with john hardy at the start of the

program. it is trading 124. up .40% for the day. wall street is looking at a muted, but positive start to the trade today. it was a fairly muted session yesterday as well with the u.s. indices ending flat after friday's robust jobs report and the market now leaning toward expectation that the fed will hike by 25 basis points at the next meeting we will have more analysis later in the program there is the picture for you of how wall street is poised to open today earnings season kicks off with s&p 500 companies expected to see a second consecutive decline in quarterly earnings. first quarter earnings are expected to fall 6.8% year on year banks are top of mind for investors after a bruising quarter with the largest u.s. banks expected to post

withdrawals into the tens of billions the failure of signature and silicon valley bank prompted a flight to safety out of the smaller lenders. jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo kickoff earnings on friday and followed by goldman sachs and morgan stanley on monday broadridge highlights the best performing asset managers and we have chris chancellor here with us chris, really interesting report here i understand this is an annual report let's start off by asking what with fund buyers are looking for funds this year compared to previous years what's changed >> this was research from 2022

the market was more the volatile and interest rates started to move up. fund selectors were looking for safety and security and that comes across in a need to get help from the asset managers not just give me the right products, but help me understand what issing going in the producs if i'm a fund select or or fud to fund, i want quick answers to the questions. that service element is important for the selectors. >> that makes when times are tough, you want service. in fund selectors, what is the trend in terms of one stop shops versus more specialist funds or whether that be from the local

perspective? >> if you think of the fund selected buy list, they have 30 different slots. it will want one-stop-shops at top. active, passive across the spe spectrum they go shopping for specific groups that will do something really interesting if we look at the top ten in europe, yes, we have the big names at the top that you expect blackrock and amundi and groups like stewart not a well known game. really slotting into other areas like germany and austria you don't just have to be a huge provider to win at asset management you can be a specialist. >> what about european fund managers versus u.s.

how do they stack up >> the u.s. managers are the most dominant globally dominant in asia and europe. if you go market to market, the french market, you have a different line young w -- lineup we see the u.s. brands come to the floor. fidelity and blackrock that is not to say there are not strong providers built heavily on product, but service. ability to give a really high touch to investors is really light. >> i'm not sure if this is within the scope of the survey i'm curious within the fund management world how funds selectors think of single manager funds against the pod. if there is a trend you could

comment on >> i think around that, i think we see a shift away from star managers over time less conversation about star managers what you need to consider is you still need the managers to be able to go and talk to the investors. actually you don't want to build a staff, but you need a manager known to investors and willing to talk to investors and whether that be physically or more and more often on webcasts or phone calls and so on. >> that's interesting. that makes sense what about green credential? how does this factor into fund selectors decision making >> how are they judging?

>> it is an area influx. it is more important for fund selectors. of all of the fund selectors, majority are using sg funds in certain markets. they say well over 50% of portfolios are invested in esg funds. what is esg is probably the tricky question. i guess last year or two years ago we had sfdr as a regulation coming to europe with article 8 and article 9. obviously there is some rolling back of that and some changed of article 8 funds. the darker green funds back to lighter green. fund selectors looked at that and said we are not so sure. what they do know is i definitely still want esg. i want green funds in my portfolio. what we are seeing is the bigger fund selectors do is their own

analysis we will build our tools because there are lots of tools out there that measure green credentials. they don't all agree we will look at those and build our own model and make our decisions of what esg is and is not. >> is that sustainable that it is done in this piecemeal way? >> over the long term we will see a coalescing around agreement about what esg is and what it isn't and the different flavors are of it. i think we're still very early days in this if we go back five years, the fund selectors we talked to and hardly any of them mentioned esg. now it comes up in every interview we do across europe. i think it is here to stay, but it will continue to change and we will get to a more sustainable model.

>> have you measured at all the relationship between esg credentials and fund performance? >> not particularly. we are looking at the brand here what is interesting on the brand side is we talked about u.s. group against european groups before you look at esg ranking of brands and it is all european groups you have bnp doing well. it is not the big u.s. names they are taking longer to get to grips with this. it is not to say they are not doing a good job, but they don't have the heritage of the european groups that have always had esg embedded >> it is an interesting point. you can take it to the corporates as well which have been disadvantaged because of the esg awareness. now that's what investors are looking for and it is turning to

an advantage chris, thank you for the insight. chris chancellor at broadridge now as investors brace for a potential downturn in equities and broader recession, bank of america public shed the playboo on cnbc pro. president biden will visit belfast today marking the 25th anniversary of the good friday agreement. biden is expected to highlight the u.s. role in brokers the agreement which ended decades of violence in northern ireland he will also visit the irish republic the threat level has been raised to severe in ireland warning of potential attacks. former uk secretary of state for ireland told cnbc that upholding the principals of the good friday agreement is key

>> the 1998 agreement transformed northern ireland for the better it was a huge achievement. it is, of course, a matter o concern that the institutions it created are not currently sitting because of concerns about the northern ireland protocol the northern ireland political leaders have had many challenges i feel they will be able to get that government up and running again, but it will require more changes to the protocol from the eu coming up on the program, u.s. jobs data shows the smallest gains since december of 2020 we will look to the non-farm payroll report next.

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welcome back to "street signs. the u.s. economy added 235,000 jobs to the economy. the unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5% as labor force

participation increased to the highest level since before the pandemic investors looking ahead to the key economic data. march reading for the ppi and cpi due on wednesday and thursday and cpi is expected to rise by 5.2% annually. that is down from the 6% year on year rise reported in february according to reuters three major banks will report first quarter earnings on friday a packed week ahead. friday's jobs report boosted expectation for another fed rate hike in may. investors are pricing in 70% chance the fed will raise rates 25 points in may james pomeroy joins me now to

talk through what we can expect in the weeks and months ahead. james, great to have you with us let's kick off with the jobs report on friday first show back after the long break. i think it would be helpful to get investors up to speed with the thinking the jobs report was robust and in line with expectation given it is known as a lagging indicator. how much weight do we put on the jobs report out on friday? >> i think there is good news in that report for everyone you have jobs added and wages growing at a decent rate for workers, but wage gains slowing down p qquite a lot in the laste months good news if you are the federal reserve. the encouraging is the jobs report data long the timely data we get in the u.s. economy you see the labor market is still strong, but it is cooling down just a little bit you can see this in a range of

indicators from job openings not from the official data from the bls, but the numbers are many coulding do-- numbers are still coming down. you have the consumer confidence data and pmi data is good on the services side. you have the situation where the jobs report is echoing the bro broader data things are strong and really good and maybe a cooling down a bit. the federal reserve is probably a big fan of that report on friday >> in terms of the fed, the market is now leaning toward a 25 basis point like at its meeting. are you in that camp and if the fed does 25 bps, does that mean it is nearing the end of the hiking campaign? >> we agree. 25 is likely at the next meeting. we are nearing the end of the tightening cycle

there are clear since of inflation pressures dropping out. you see this in the slowing wage growth data. you are likely to see more input cost data. these numbers are improving. we are seeing a lot of momentum going in the right direction in terms of inflation data. i think particularly in the course of the last six months. we think we are getting close to the top. you have to keep in mind what is happening on the activity side retail sales data. the numbers have been reasonably soft in the last few months. we had the big print in january. if you look at the consumer period spending in the u.s. and globely ly -- globally, you se cut back there there is softness in the data. nothing that is concerning, but a slowdown you have inflation that looks like it is slowing down nicely excluding shelter.

all of this together gives us a sense that there may be a little more to do on the timing front >> let's shift over to china, james. overnight, we got fresh inflation data from china showing inflation is slowing such a different picture elsewhere in the world do you think the slowing inflation figures in china mean we should expect a policy response >> yes and no. it is different in the west. we haven't had the supply chain issues here. goods price inflation and punt up throughout the course of last year that hasn't been the case in china. you have not had shortages or disruption or things that pushed up goods inflation the second around of inflation in the u.s. and west is services driven that is what we are seeing wrecrecreational services demand what you are likely to see in

china is the services inflation come through it will take time. the economy started opening up three months ago you will take time to get capacity which pushes up on prices that will come later this year on the other side of this, you have very, very slow inflation rates in the near term some of the issues in the ppi data negative ppi year on year and input costs pressures in china are down this is feeding through to the inflation numbers. we expect inflation to pick back up we think there is a bias for easing in china. we do think numbers will pick up as the recovery gains momentum particularly on the services side that is where demand has the furthest to rebound. >> james, thank you for sharing your insight the u.s. department of justice has launched an investigation after the classified documents released on

social media sites brie jackson with nbc is joining us with more brie, what do we know about who is behind them who is responsible >> reporter: good morning. the defense department and intelligence community continue to assess and review the validity of the documents. u.s. officials say there is no question these documents pose national security risk now these were sensitive and highly classified intelligence information leaked on social media sites. the justice department is leading the criminal investigation and trying to figure out who may have leaked this the leaked documents reveal details about u.s. add ver satelli -- add versaries and intelligence

experts warn it is not just data that could be at risk, but human sources could be in danger because of the leaked documents. u.s. oicials say the pentagon has taken steps to prevent future leaks a including limiting access to certain documents. there are concerns that additional information may be out there. >> brie, thank you so much for bringing us up to speed with the latest brie jackson, nbc news let's turn to wall street and check out u.s. futures and in store for the open. fairly muted start implied by the futures. green across the board echoing the fairly muted session on wall street yesterday stocks closing flat after the robust jobs report on friday president biden arriving on the state visit to mark the 25th

anniversary of the good friday agreement. then, of course, in terms of what is ahead, a packed week as we discussed through the show. the u.s. cpi report due tomorrow fmoc minutes published tomorrow. on thursday, we get uk gdp data. that is interesting to watch given the performance of the pound. will we see catalyst for change in the trajectory of sterling? the start of q1 earnings on friday with jpmorgan chase and wells fargo and citi kicking things off a lot of focus after the turmoil in the banking sector in the last several weeks that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum thank you for joining us "worldwide exchange" is coming your way next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global h5eadquarters. here is your top "five@5." investors kick off the earnings season new numbers of the grind bitcoin with no problems finding fresh legs we dig in to what is fueling the rebound. fed speak as john williams talks unemployment outlook and credit conditions. we have more on his comments coming up. plus, warren buffett looking to japan for opportunity looking to take bigger stakes in