welcome back to "squawk on the street." setting the agenda today, economist david rosenberg on why another rate hike by the fed is the wrong way to go with the jobs picture screaming recession ahead. gold has been a shining star, up 10% and hitting a one-year high. we'll speak with the ceo about the future of prices and potential consolidation in the sector. ubs says they see 50,000 retail store closures and

billions will be up for grabs for the remaining players. we'll break down who is set to benefit. a waiting game as we get cpi for tomorrow, but for now holding 4100 on the s&p. we talked about underlying industrial bid today as cat and boeing are some highlights of the dow. volume, though, is light and a lot of attention ex-u.s. paris high, for example. >> caterpillar and boeing in the dow, home depot. some groups like industrials and materials that got hit on the weaker data are rallying today it's not a total reversal but maybe a rethink of the hard landing scenario it does change by the day, the market narrative that increases the odds go in may. >> and imf world bank this week topping the tape the street and the imf calling for a downturn wells, meantime, sees a 10% correction in the next three to

six months driven by some of these recent bank failures, adding the near-term relief rally appears already reflected in stock b of a writes easy fed policy and tightening, credit conditions typically equate to the worst phase for stocks they do hold onto their year-end s&p 4000 target. as they said before, i think we could see multi-year lows in the 3,000 range. meantime, the imf says the global economy is headed for its weakest growth since '90, adding risks to the outlook are heavily skewed to the downside i think the line is the fog is thickening. >> flat out saying the risks of a hard landing are increased the forecasts are still expecting 3% growth in '24, 2.8 this year for the world. but they say the risks to the outlook are increasing they're worried about higher than expected inflation. they're worried about the bank system and the sort of tenuous

stability that we've seen. they're worried about potential contagion, says matters could make it worse and worried about tightening on the ystem. >> and yellen will have a presser talking about stability in banks and inflation off its high but still too high. >> right that's been the message from the treasury secretary if wall street and the imf are getting more bearish, could that be a sign for the fed it's time to pause the increases joining us now, rosenberg research founder and president, david rosenberg. you think this would be a horrible mistake, right, david, if they went again >> well, i think it would be a mistake. that said, the fed is sort of pushed the market and its rhetoric towards thinking they're going again in early may. you know, sara, i thought when they were in -- raising rates into that deeply inverted yield

curve last fall, that's when the first mistake was really made. but it comes down to how you want to define a mistake the fed may well be quite content with what they hope would be a mild recession in their implicit macro forecast they gave us at the last meeting and you trace out the last three quarters, the fed was telling you, we're expecting fractional negatives on gdp so, i don't think that they would be considered to be a mistake with a mild recession, to finally crush the inflation so, i think that it's a mistake because i think inflation is going to come down quite hard in the next two months, irrespective of what the fed does in may, but they're not going to take any chances. >> it's also not necessarily a consensus view, david. i get the inflation expectations have come down and they're not signaling any kind of alarm, but i'm not sure everyone would agree with you that inflation is

going to come back down in the coming months. >> well, i know that there's a lot of pundits out there that think inflation is going to be sticky to the downside in the service sector i would say that, you know, look at where the ten-year tips break even are or the five-year five forwards are whether 2.2, 2.3%. so, i would say that there are market characteristics out there, market data that are telling you inflation is going to be coming back down over time talking about inflation, it's like a -- for economists it's like a race between washing grass grow and paint dry it's a process i do think once we start to see the break in the rental data, and you're seeing in real time rents are coming down month after month. it's not been fully reflected

because of these three-year distributive lags in the cpi when the rental deflation shows through, and this may well be a story in the second half of the year, in 2024 considering rents are 30% of the index, i think you'll be very surprised, sara, that inflation's going to come down a lot more than what the consensus believes right now >> david, i wonder what you think across the globe, the stance of various central banks. we'll see what bank of canada does tomorrow. clearly they're on pause mode. australia, same camp is the inflation picture really that different depending on the geography? >> i think what you've had in australia and canada are much more acute housing bubbles and monetary policy that feeds into the economy much more quickly than of the stcase in the states where a lot of the debt has been trimmed out. the process between what the fed has done and the impact of the

real economy has been stretched out. that's why the bank of canada has moved to it the sidelines far ahead of the fed i think what the reality is that we're looking at the contours of the economic data and we're looking at the high possibility of a classic credit crunch this is still opening chapters of this new book and you're seeing it in real time i mean, look at the bank data we got through march. over the past four weeks, bank deposits are actually down over 30% annual rate. you could look at the bank stocks and say, thank the good lord the bank stocks have stabilized, yeah, after being crushed. but bank deposits are still flowing out. now bank assets are following suit i haven't heard anybody talk about the fact that bank credit has declined and a 3.5% annual rate over the past four weeks through to the end of march, so we're starting to see some cracks in the credit data. we got the nfib numbers today.

small business sector, and this just carried us through to march. imagine what they'll look like in the next few months but the small business sector is already saying that access to credit is the toughest it's been in any time in the past ten years. you know, john williams from the new york fed is talking about, well, i don't see any problems on the credit side and yet the new york fed's own survey of consumer expectations showed that access for credit to households last month was the toughest it's been on record and so we're starting to see these sign posts for credit-driven economy. this comes back to sara's issue before comes down to the matinations and the cpi data what we're seeing going forward is going to be very deflationary on top of that, everybody's waxing about nonfarm payrolls. i get that the fed is waiting for nonfarm payrolls to go down. maybe that's the mistake,

because then it's too late but back-to-back months now we've haddi inaggregate hours wd in contraction it's been greater than the number of bodies on headline payrolls that everybody is salivating over. you will start to see cracks in the labor market start to come to the fore. i would say hours worked are the best leading indicator for employment come the summer and into the fall, i expect to see nonfarm payrolls go down our conversation we're having right now on inflation and on the fed is going to be sounding a lot different. >> everything you're saying makes sense. the pushback i hear on why inflation will stay sticky, a lot is structural factors. there's a supply problem with labor, there's increasing worries about security and people are onshoring things like semiconductors there's esg. all of these factors are going

to make it very hard for the fed to get back to longer term inflation target and they're going to keep inflation levels pretty sticky for a long time. do you not agree with that >> i don'tly disagree with that. you know, i hear that all the time structural -- structural inflation. i mean, sara, honestly, what does that even mean? >> it means that semiconductors are going to get made in this country and, therefore, they're going to be more expensive because labor will be more expensive and we don't have enough labors to do it so we won't have enough supply we're decoupling maybe from china and other places >> well, you know what, so i guess people are entitled to their opinions but let's not confuse opinions with facts. what are the facts the facts are that last week we got to ism numbers we got ism manufacturing and ism for the service sector you look at supply deliver delays which, sara, is the poster child

for the bottle neck pressures you're talking about i understand it's a good narrative if you have a big inflation view and bearish on bonds. it's at their lowest level ever. they're lower now -- in other words, these bottleneck pressures you're talking about make for a nice story but the bottleneck pressures are actually less acute now than they were before the pandemic started. and and you're talking about the supply of labor. well, if i'm not mistaken, the participation rate is actually starting to go up and it's going up in the right areas demographically. i don't hear anybody talk about the great retirement theme, anymore. thankfully that's been retired so the participation rate's going up if you're right about all this stuff, why aren't wages still accelerating wages are decelerating over the past few months average yearly earnings are running at an annual 3.2%

that's what structural inf inflationists had going for them and that's the inflation rate at 3.5% the three-month trend. you can see all the trends and wages are actually decelerating at 3.5% unemployment imagine if the fed gets its 4.5% unemployment rate call right, where are wages going to be at that point maybe these people are right in three, five, ten years, i don't know, maybe there's structural inflation. i'm saying for the here and the now, if we're going to take it a year at a time, i think the cyclical forces of inflation are squarely to the downside >> under pressure. >> yeah. >> no, you've been arguing a lot. that's a good debate david, good to hear from you. >> you, too. take care. >> david rosenberg. we are getting some boeing march orders and deliveries. we'll turn to phil lebeau. hey, phil. >> carl, we were expecting big numbers for march given the fact we had the air india order announced as well as some middle east orders announced.

the paperwork is not finalized so take these numbers and realize we'll see some big numbers over the next couple of months 38 planes were ordered in the month of march deliveries topping 64. as you take a look at shares of boeing, the backlog now at 4,455 planes the significance of the increase in deliveries, which has been gradually ticking higher month after month, is they're getting close to saying, we're ready to go from 31 737 maxs per month up to 38, 39 or 40 per month maybe by the middle of this year or late third quarter, fourth quarter prp it's all about getting the supply chain in order. there's the numbers for the month of march as you take a look at shares of boeing ticking a little bit higher. back to you. >> phil, thank you for that. on boeing today. still to come this hour, ubs says 50,000 retail stores will close over the next five years who's at risk and who might benefit? we're joined by the analyst behind that note coming up after

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notes. ubs raising their expectations for store closures to 50,000 by 2027 that's an overall drop of about 5% they say smaller retails will see the bigger risk and could benefit big box stores like home depot, walmart and costco. joining us is the analyst behind that note, michael lasser. we've talked so many years about the united states being overstored what is it about this moment that you think really tips that balance? >> good morning, carl. there was a respite in store closures over the last few years given the support we provided to the retail sector through things like stimulus, child tax credit, and most recently, inflation as retailers recognize sales actually benefitted from inflation. in 2021 there was a rise of 1,000 -- in the united states.

we've only begun to see closures -- that's what's causing an inflection point where well positioned retailers like a walmart, like a target, like a costco same to gain market share. >> have they given you indication they want to step on the gap on unit growth the way, say, fast food restaurants are in the next couple of years? >> not in the way we think of traditional growth but they are adding capacity and they are adding enhancements to their business model for a way to distinguish themselves last week walmart rolled out a plan where it will spend $15 to $20 billion per year moving forward with automating its

business that's going to make much more -- find those companies that have less -- more difficult -- >> michael, it's a great note. and everybody should try to get a look at it if they can huge implications for the future of american retail appreciate your time very much good to see you. michael lasser at ubs. china's consumer inplace hitting an 18-month low as european stocks hit five-year high. gold continues to shine bright we're going to speak exclusively with the barrick gold ceo. moderna is delaying its flu

vaccine due to lack of late stage trial. interesting piece. let me bring in my expert. mmm... so many scratches... oh those are from my car keys. such a rich history. yeah. this won't do well at auction. but at at&t, it's worth a brand-new samsung galaxy s23. wait really? mmhmm. what about this? at&t's deal is back. wow. everyone gets a free new samsung galaxy s23 with a galaxy phone trade-in. any year, any condition. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of

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welcome back time to go abroad. european markets are closing near the highest levels in over a month after the easter holiday. investors betting global central banks may be close to peak or already done with rate hikes the paris cac index hitting a record high today. miners and automakers leading gains while more defense sectors lagged after recent outperformance there's also increasing odds that the ecb goes 25 basis points at their next meeting along with the federal reserve the big stoerdz overseas today that we want to highlight comes out of china inflation data easing for the second straight month. loosening of covid restrictions not appear to be generating broad pricing pressures. the inflation number coming in at 0.7%, less than the 1% forecast prices factory falling, the

biggest drop since january 2020. a reminder, inflation is not a problem in china as it is in many other parts of the world like europe, uk, u.s., japan -- not japan either it's a positive overall because they are a source of disinflation. >> maybe one of the world's biggest in terms of bringing those numbers down interesting given they're spending $1.2 trillion on infrastructure projects. it's not like they don't have the pedal to the metal on, i guess you would call it, industrial stimulus. they want this recovery to happen. >> they want the recovery and they need private investment so they're putting inpublic investment they have the opposite problem as us. we're worried about fiscal and monetary spending and trying to curb it. they have the cushion to do it and now need to find the growth. we haven't seen quite the bounceback that many expected in china like we saw, for instance,

in the u.s. after covid restrictions eased maybe that's coming. >> youth unemployment over there is still very high nice little bounce in the dow as we, again, seeing some industrial bids holding 4113 let's get a news update with kristina partsinevelos >> hi, carl. here's your cnbc news update president biden telling reporters this morning he tried to call detained "wall street journal" reporter but was not able to speak with him just yet. >> we're making it real clear it's totally illegal what's happening. after nearly 80 years, iconic food storage company tupperware might be going out of business the massachusetts-based company says it's exploring options like mass layoffs, selling real estate and other cost-cutting measures to try to keep the company afloat. a lot of people were watching jon rahm don the green jacket on sunday cbs sports saying the final

round was the most watched round of golf telecast and most streamed round ever on paramount plus app it doesn't get putter than this. carl. >> thanks so much. kristina partsinevelos got a quick market flash for you. carrier global hitting some session highs in the last few moments as the company aims to sell or spin off its fire and security business. that's according to "the wall street journal." that unit accounted for roughly 17% of sales last year the report says the process still in its early stages. no guarantee anything comes of it that's about all the journal has at the moment. we have seen this playbook issued by some industrial companies in the last 12, 24 months. >> wall street excited about it. up next, retail trading platforms are rolling out their next big product savings account. more on that when the ceo of trading platform webull joins us. we're keeping an eye on

cyclicals. mohawk industries seeing some nice gains $115 price target. back in two minutes on "squawk on the street. near the highs, up 110 points on the dow.

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cyclicals are in apple, microsoft are weighing on the dow. salesforce, big rally. a couple weeks ago it was $175 a month ago went to $200 now it's back down to $188 it's been down the last couple of days. there was all sorts of volume here 7 to 10 million shares a while ago. on a regular basis two weeks ago. it's all quieted down. yes, it's down but it's not like there's no enthusiastic selling going on they're buying what are they buying mcdonald's if we close at $285, that's an historic high, all-time historic high you see those numbers, ubs had positive comments on strong global demand. that was yesterday they were talking about it, mcdonald's is a defensive play it's the material names, the cyclicals, industrials ppg is a big coding company. one of the biggest paint manufacturers in the world they do stains

olympic stains, for example. this is a new high at $140 we're starting to creep up these things are starting to rally, these industrial and cyclical names are starting to move to the upside we're seeing a little breakout in housing-related stuff there's no new highs here but pulte has been strong the last few days we've seen lennar strong, whirlpool strong, mohawk moving up so, carl, you get the combination here of some moves up consumer discretionary as well as moves up in deep cyclicals, industrials and material names and you have suddenly the making of a nice little rotation. tech is a little weaker but not dramatically weaker. the volumes do not indicate are selling in a tremendous way. just a little less buying interest in tech overall, very good outlook going into earnings season. >> i was going to say, last three earning cycles, bob, market has done pretty well on the front end of it.

we don't talk a lot about the seasonality about how strong the month of april typically is. >> yes april is an extremely strong month. it's the number one month for the dow jones industrial average. it has been for a very long time then you get into the six-month period, may through october, which historically underperforms. right now, though, covid has messed these old indicators up so much that i pay a little bit less attention to them the most important thing about this debate is where do you stand on the soft landing? that's where the analysts are all hung up right now. is there going to be a soft landing? if there is, you can have a nice economic recovery and higher earnings in the third and fourth quarter. that's what the market has the street has a recovery in earnings third and fourth quarter. trough in earnings is right now. if you don't believe that, those numbers are all wrong and we talked about that earlier, carl. a lot of strategists on the street do not want to embrace the soft landing concept because

it's hard to put all of your faith in that right now. >> kicking and screaming, as you said, bob. bob pisani. turning to the retail investor and what's been an obviously volatile year for trading activity morgan stanley downgrading the nasdaq exchange for growth concerns over that operator. on the flip side, money market funds seeing their fourth straight week of inflows so, to keep up with the shifting investor landscape, trading platform webull now offering 4.1% on uninvested cash. joining us at post 9, ceo anthony deniers with us. this points to the mindset, what is cash is value, right? what led you to this particular product? >> over the course of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 we've seen retail investors with a flight to safety that safety whether it involves

fixed income market, cash or index-based etfs, they're not actively involved in single index stocks we go to where the customers want to be right now that's in uninvested cash they're looking for returns. instead of seeing those -- that uninvested cash leave our platform, going to the local banks, going to cds at their local banks, we want to make sure our customers feel they have a place at webull to make some returns on their cash. >> do you have to make part of the marketing the assurance of what's protected >> of course, especially now we're a regulated broker/dealer, $150 million in cash, fully insured. >> part thinks, okay, this is not a surprise but does it mark what will likely be a pendulum shift back to, as you say, single tickers is that more likely? is there more run way here >> i think the retail investor is waiting for more guidance

from the fed once we have an indication of where interest and inflation is going to go, we'll see retail be safety. >> if you're switching into money market funds, how do you make money, you as a platform? >> we're not as a self-directed, zero platform, i wrote an open letter when i got asked every day, how do you make commission payment flow, we don't have time to talk about that, fully paid stock lending, uninvested cash, interest we earn, and margin loans. now, we took away commission so we're left with those four we're now taking away that nii, net income interest broker/dealers normally earn in customer brokerage accounts, we're giving that back to the customer this is, in my opinion, the next generation of zero commission. where broker/dealers will have to take a revenue hit, margins will continue to compress for

retail broker/dealers to make sure they stop the exit and the flight of customer cash to different forms of making money. >> how much are trading volumes down >> well, webull is fortunate we have a much more active trader base than most of our competitors but through 2022 we saw volumes down less than 10%, better than our competition, and 2023 is looking the same our customer acquisition calls are going through the roof and customer retags is getting more difficult every day. this availability for our customers to do absolutely nothing, behind no pay walls, no minimum deposit amounts, to earn sizeable interest on uninvested cash is a way for customers to feel safe holding their money. getting some sort of money working for them in their brokerage accounts. >> do you think individual name, retail activity comes back stronger in a huge bull market or in a real bear downturn from here >> webull is unique in the fact

we allow customers to short stocks on our platform if they qualify. you have to have $2500 there's fed rules. i think we saw the run of customers trying to play the downside with the options market with the inverse etfs and with short selling. hard the bars have gotten very expensive for short sellers. i think retail invest, single stock investing is going to wait until the next bull run. >> robin hood was, what, $35 stock in 2021 and now trading under $10. massive correction i assume that's the closest proxy we have in the public market to your business. what has that meant for you in terms of raising money and just ability to operate >> webull is in a unique position again we don't have to raise money we are profitable and have been profitable for well over two years now. i don't want to comment on my competitors, but profitability is what drives investors now addai. finding money is not a problem,

even though we don't need it with our profitability how does that look and how do we compare ourselves? well, robinhood is a beast, right? they are the market. they're in the news every day. so, we have an opportunity to see what they're doing, blazing that trail and not make the same mistakes they made. >> in the media space, a lot of streaming products came out. they were essentially free and newspapers as well, dotcom pieces were free and then the industry -- we have to start charging for this stuff. do you think it's ever possible that zero commission goes away at the margin where you have maybe tiny commission? >> anything's possible but i will say that once that cat is out of the bag, it's very hard to put it back in. i think you'll see diversification of products and diversification of geography for broker/dealer rather than just putting back a commission number it's very hard to tell someone, can you do something for free now but you won't be able to do it for free later. >> anthony, thank you.

>> thanks for having me. >> good to talk to you and hear about the business. a new survey showing optimism for small business is at recession levels as banking fears have worried main street reetls on that story when "squawk on the street" comes right back i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this.

edward jones we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they

have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back concerns about a lasting ripple effect from the banking crisis has main street worried. kate rogers is in san francisco

and has that story for us. >> the nfib is out with its monthly read on optimism that shows an overall dip from 90.9 to 90.1 for march. they call these recession levels while inflation and labor, of course, are still key issues in the economic outlook for the next six months remains the same at a net low level commentary from the group's chief economist stuck out to me. a mention of banking concerns weighing on owners and sentiment saying, quote, there are major uncertainties ahead, most immediate is concern that a banking crisis could develop adding, all of this weighs heavily on small business owners almost all of whom now see deteriorating business conditions and poor prospects for sales. the number of owners borrowing on a regular basis is unchanged month to month at 30% but a net 9% reported their last loan was harder to get than prior attempts that's up four points from the previous month noteworthy and something we'll

be following one bright spot has been the consumer spending is keeping main street afloat for now, the group says back over to you >> kate, i highlighted in the release this line that said, rates are rising but credit is still available. it doesn't look like small businesses are having trouble accessing credit but they're certainly paying up for it. >> they are. that's something to note and business owners weighing their options, wondering where money is best kept the nfib mentioned the fdic insurance company not keeping pace with inflation, saying it might not be high enough for owners to feel secure. we talked last week about a separate study from the association of small business owners saying its owners were saying only half felt confident in their current banking relationships and that loans were somewhat harder to get. so, this is going to be something to keep an eye on. >> sure. >> i think it's just remarkable, kate i mean, you go back maybe 12, 18 months and it was all about

inflation with nfib, policymakers, leaning on them to solve this problem for them. it seems like it's flipped almost 180. >> we monitor this all the time. as you mentioned, inflation has been a top concern for quite some time. number two, labor, number three, supply chain we haven't heard about a banking crisis it's the first time it showed up and i think it will continue to be there in the months to come. >> kate rogers, thank you very much. after the break, gold surged more than 10% this year. back above $2,000 an ounce, just off a record high. as the fed continues its inflation fight, is there more room to run? ceo of barrick gold is with us the dow up 83 points i'm telling you, coach staley, i could really get used to this retirement thing.

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beneficiaries of all the turmoil over the last month is gold. prices surging above $2,000. not just prices keeping the sector in the spotlight today numont raising its quest let's talk about the state of the industry with barrick gold ceo mark bristow we wanted you to come on and talk about the price action, which has caught a lot of people offguard why do you think gold has been so strong? do you think it's sustainable? >> yes, i think -- hello i do think it's sustainable for the time being because i think what we're measuring here is the

weakness of the dollar and really the central banks of the developed world and the impact of zurich and really gold today is measuring the weakness of the dollar, although the dollar is measuring the weakness of the rest of the world's currenc currencies on top of that, after we managed covid, we haven't really reflected about the damage that this has done to the less developed economies and the emerging markets >> but don't you think it also has to do -- yes, the weakness of the dollar has to do with this, too, but the changing view on fed policy and the shift in the markets toward expecting a federal reserve interest rate cut, something the fed's not even talking about >> yes sara, the point is that in these sort of crises, we always look very short term.

i think this is a much longer term issue because it's been created over a long period of zero interest rates. and when -- you know, that's what we've seen manifest itself in the banking crisis in the united states. i still believe there's a lot more to come as we get -- have to face up to the u.s. dollar debt spiral across the world >> whoa. >> mark, we were looking at a graphic a moment ago, looking at your guidance on cost of production essentially i wonder if you can put that in context and talk about how that compares to the last time we were somewhere in the 2k range >> you know, yeah, the cost right now is all about inflation. and i think, you know, as far as barrick goes, we're largely dollar denominated in our costs so it doesn't really impact us certainly the pressure will be on the inflation that's been -- that's been sparked by this

crisis in other currencies so the gold industry, as you know, in a crisis like this, gold always goes up, and so we have a natural hedge to these sort of inflationary pressures but i think this is -- i don't thin i think we've got -- when you look at the global debt against global gdp, when you look at the strength of the currencies, the relevant positioning of u.s. dollar as a global reserve currency generally everything is dynamic at the moment. and what you're seeing is that gold is the gold price is measuring that high-risk across the global economy >> you think people are starting to price in -- i know there's a lot of talk about it, but a dollar losing its reserve

currency status? it feels so dominant and the only alternatives, there aren't any china is less than 3% of global reserves and it's not even an open market. >> sara, you're right. if you look at central bank reserves across the world, they've declined from the sort of 60s to the 50s. if you use the global reserve currency as a weapon, people are hesitant to buy it as a reserve currency that's driving gold, you saw in 2022 the most central banks have ever bought with respect to gold, and so they grew their reserve on the back of gold. i agree with you, right now there isn't an alternative but there's a push to spread the

reserves and china is a dominant economy, but i think it's got a long way to go before the world trust that is currency it is a dynamic. no clear path out of it. very clearly people are hedging their portfolio. i'm talking about central banks now. >> where do you think prices would be if it weren't for crypto, if bitcoin did not exist at the moment? >> i don't think crypto is relevant in this conversation. it's not considered a reserve. i don't believe that and i think that that's part of zero interest rates and people not trusting our current paper currencies and so they look for alternatives, they don't want to be controlled in their transactions gold is a different currency, a currency you can't print -- no

one can print it or create it. it's a stable alternative to paper currencies and always has been >> and digital, perhaps. what about the newmont competitor raising its bid for australian rival new crest do you think this deal goes through, and how would you position around it >> we've never made it our business to comment on other people's transactions in the market i'm not planning to change that policy >> understood. there has been a lot of consolidation in the sector. do you expect that to continue and what's driving it? >> exactly, sara i think the consolidation will continue because we just haven't invested in our future

it is a con ssumptive this last period everyone was focused on dividends and not investing in the future of the industry is going to hurt us and, again, never before have we seen such demand for metals as the world realizes you have to develop to be able to create a better place for future generations. you can't just focus on greenhouse gas emissions we have to develop those economies that are underdeveloped if we're going to create something that's better for everyone >> thank you so much for coming on today >> a pleasure. >>ed good to talk to you >> very good as we're talking commodities, take a look at oil today, highs of the day almost 81.5 we spoke just a few moments ago, after the production cut announcement out of opec plus went into its flattest five-day

range in almost two years, but this would be a bit of a breakout here to stay above 82 >> you would think it would go sharply higher but a push/pull on the economy and that's what last week was all about. oil is higher and treasury yields are higher. the story is changing by the day. wall street also buzzing about warren buffett and some new investments in japan we'll have more ahead of tomorrow's appearance by mr. buffett on "squawk box" 6:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m. eastern time stayitus wh - psst! susan! with paycom, employees do their own payroll. - what's paycom? a magic payroll genie? - it's a payroll app. - payroll is way too complicated for the average person. - paycom guides them through it. missing or duplicate punches, pending expenses, unapproved pto, on and on. - why would employees wanna do all that? - this could be a stretch, but i think it's 'cause they wanna get paid correctly. i like getting paid correctly.

here's what's making a buzz today. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway upping its stakes in trading houses and the legendary investor said he might raise them further he told the publication he's planning to meet with the companies later in the week to, quote, really just have a discussion around their businesses and emphasize our support. our own becky quick will be live from japan tomorrow morning with buffett. we'll talk to him about stocks, economies, certainly the banking crisis, what he sees in japan. how geo politics was behind berkshire's sale of taiwan semi.

>> a cheaper yen is always helpful. >> the wall street is buzzing about today, ken griffin donating $300 million to harvard university his total donations are more than $500 million. harvard now renaming arts and sciences school after him. clearlyphilanthropic as we look ahead to tomorrow, cpi is the big story, the inflation number and all the big trading houses, what's going to happen the expectation for cpi tomorrow 0.2% gain on the month and for the year 5.1% gain here is what goldman sachs says could happen if it's more than 6% on that headline number we'll see the market move down 2% plus 5.2% to 6%, 1% to 2% down so

that would be a bad, troubling signal 4.6 to 5.1 up a little bit less than 4.6%, that would be the very happy surprise for the markets which we would see a more than 2% rally >> let's get back to post 9 and "the half. carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner front and center, the countdown to tomorrow's cpi and all that is riding on that report and all this is one top strategist says your best move is to sell before may and go away. we explain we debate the call with the investment committee bryn talkington, joe terranova and jenny harrington joining me today. let's check the markets here the dow is having a good day technology is lagging. consumer