a good bit of that. >> $40 more get them both. >> red zone is a great product i'm not sure i want to pay that much to watch the bears and cardinals. >> still a washington commanders - >> i'm a giants fan. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> kelly, thank so much. i'm scott wapner live from post nine this is the make or break hour where all roads end. tomorrow's critical cpi report the latest read on inflation, top technicians gaming out the reaction in markets. you will hear from one in just a little bit lays out where stocks might go, no matter what the print is in the morning. here's your scored card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. nice session work in here towards the close. cyclical stocks like energy and industrials leading us higher as treasury secretary janet yellen suggests the economy might avoid

a ydownturn tech is the weakest. leading nasdaq lower, not as low as earlier, trying to work its way back as well yields, they're up a touch as well ahead of tomorrow morning that takes us to our talk of the tape, whether your best move right now is to take advantage of this early year rally and sell winners or hang on for another leg higher should one come let's ask john, chief investment officer from nfj group here at post nine. good to see you. welcome back. >> thanks for having me back. >> a lot of people are still bearish. are you as bullish as you've been >> i want to comment on the statement, people should maybe take profits i think the problem is people have been investing. you saw $500 billion flow into money markets and cash since march of '20 people are overweightcash. we meet with our clients and investors, people are say we're overweight bonds, cash, staples. i think people have not been positioned for it and a nosebleed rally that's moved

higher. >> they think it's another bear market bounce and the real tell is what's going to happen next and you may go back, they say, to test the lows even some of the most bullish we speak to like brian belski, not that he turned into a bear, bulls he says quote last night for the first time in many years our enthusiasm for stock market performance potential this year is relatively tempered that's bell ki he's as bullish as they've come. you are too. >> i would say two things. we've had two big quarters in a row. the fourth quarter and first quarter, 7% plus quarters in a row. what i would say is from a portfolio manager perspective, it's hard to always talk about the macro, filled with riddles, but bottom up basis i think some of the semiconductor stocks have gotten less attractive, home builders have gotten less attractive, some of the machinery stocks less attractive what is attractive, application software, life science, reits, and you're going to bring up financials and yes, financials do look interesting here

i think there are opportunities for investors and i think that just because it's snowing and you may have to put on your goggles doesn't mean you shouldn't go down the mountain. >> are you going to slip on the ice if you get into the market thinking that, you know, everything is going to be just fine >> not if you're not over paying what occurred in october was that people basically dumped everything they sold all the stocks and did not look at valuation. they were fearful rates would grind higher and fearful we would move into a massive recession. both those things have not occurred it created that his dislocation. the same thing happening in real estate, banks, and in some of the -- >> you don't know what's to come in real estate, commercial real estate, and we don't know what's yet to come for the banks eater? >> we don't. a couple things, yes, are there boiling frogs out there in the real estate market probably there probably are some. but that doesn't mean you don't want to have any exposure. the s&p 500, banks are roughly 5% of the s&p, so if you say i don't want to own banks or reits, throw out the s&p and get rid of your allocation

you have to address those skittish sectors and, for example, scott, regional banks have a 200 basis points premium to the 10-year with dividend growth versus no growth on the 10-year. i think there are opportunities -- >> in regional banks >> in regional banks the super regionals in particular are an interesting place to look at because they could be beneficiaries of what's going on with the smaller banks where you're seeing deposits flow away. >> the whole conversation hinges on whether you think, the greater investment community, thinks things are going to get worse interest here or if we're in the process of troughing, earnings, the economy, chris harvey, wells fargo, says sell before may and go away, and he was looking for a rally but realistic on what might lie ahead and says we're within spitting distance of 4200, our target on the s&p, now we're shifting direction expect a 10% correction in the next three to six months a front-end inversion, a % year to date run, and a banking

crisis that will likely take an economic toll triggered our reversal. >> it's an interesting comment on the banking crisis. he's not necessarily wrong it's a fair opinion. again, we are up 7%. it wouldn't surprise me if we had a bit of a correction. something about the bank crisis in 2008 that was an asset crisis that was a loan crisis this is a liability crisis it's the other side of the balance sheet in terms of what's occurred with maturities and rates. what treasury has done, they've come out and said there's a treasury put everyone is talking about the fed put, but we got the fed put. the fed put will come if they have to. what's going on with credit will slow the economy people toss around 100 basis points factored into the slowing. no one quite knows, but no question that credit is going to slow and going to contract the economy. that being said, i do not think that investors should be moving away from stocks because the dislocations have occurred from many of the companies because of what's going on in the credit

market. >> maybe today, yesterday, you have a bid in cyclical stocks as we started the show -- >> today - >> the world - >> i mean it's not like -- >> more than a day come on. >> a couple days. >> maybe six months. >> i mean, growth has been dramatically outperforming value for the -- at least since the beginning of the year. we agree on that 100% the nasdaq is in a technical bull market, so tech stocks got blasted last year. >> right. >> absolutely destroyed. value out performed. oil held up. utilities held up. staples, those are the places to be i think that investors needed to be rotating away from those. semis and home builders more attractive back then today i think the nasdaq because of its top heavy nature with the semis is getting a little bit less interesting in my opinion, so if you look at nvidia or you look at home builder, something i would say about semis and home builder. >> having a nice day today too. >> they are. >> a day where whirlpool got a nice upgrade. >> did as well that's a name we like. but what i would say nvidia

because of its unique position within a.i. and alternatively home builders because of structural supply challenges with housing both those areas were the first to go on a kind of risk-on mood. i think that next turn of the dial is going to be looking at other assets where you've seen dislocations and they have not rerated. >> want me to buy industrial stocks here. talk about machinery stocks expensive. what about pure industrial plays? >> i think that you're talking about conglomerates or pure plays? >> any part of the complex >> i think some industrials look very attractive. a couple that has a duopoly in the salvage market, a consistent earnings profile with a clean balance sheet and should benefit in multiple environments if we have a downturn, more defensive, an economy doing well that name participates there are pockets. i do not think that all industrials are as cheap as they were you need to look at discretionary reits, banks, materials, yes, i'll there, we

like materials and gold. >> a lot like gold because gold has had a great run. >> that's true we were overweight gold six months ago waiting for this and part of that was predicated on cheap valuations, stronger balance sheets and you also have had the gold stocks do many things like oil companies, cut back on cap x, made it profitable and if the dollar continues to weaken, scott, which has been occurring since halloween, roughly 13, 14%, that is going to be another boost to the miners in addition to what's going on in banking. >> let's bring in liz young with us as well and has been listening to the conversation. welcome. good to see you. >> thank you. >> you know from listening to john and his appearances here he's more bullish than most. >> yep. >> he doesn't sound like he's backing off that much. >> no. >> is he too bullish >> i respect it. definitely more bullish than i am i won't say too bullish. >> you can say that if you think it. >> you can say it. >> i'll respectfully disagree. i think that we're at a point

now where there's sort of creche shendo of negative news about to hit. earnings kicking off this week this earnings season would be the one that confirms an earnings recession if things come in as expected. i point out, which i'm sure many other people have pointed out, that we haven't seen revisions downward since the banking crisis happened in march there are revisions downward coming even the expectations that we have right now for a negative 6% growth quarter, probably gets worse. and the second quarter is expected to be negative. so i say that because that's sort of part two of a three-part series of an economic contraction. the first part you have bear markets which we know we had in 2022 i do think that the equity market will pull back when we confirm an earnings recession and part three is that you confirm an economic contraction and i think that is also coming. i think this commercial real estate stuff and the contraction in credit is noting to ignored and just the beginning of

further headlines we continue to get. >> what's your rebuttal to that? sounds reasonable. >> it is reasonable. >> it sounds like the bulls have to go out on a limb. the bears don't necessarily have to do that or people more cautious because the story is in front of them. >> it seems to read rather well. >> you got paid to take a risk, you got paid to take a risk in october -- >> if you took risks before october, you got crushed there was no reward last year early if you took risks. there's always a time to take risks. why is now the time? >> i think if you look at specific -- what i would say, if you look at certain industries and sectors i do believe the valuations are retractive. financials, the steepest valuations not just on a p/e basis but price to book and yield basis going back to march of '20 if we could all, you know, get in a time machine and go back to march of '20 would you want to buy stocks >> that's kind of --

>> financials back to that level. would you want to buy financials in march of '20. >> maybe cheaper for a reason today than they were then. >> they were cheap for a reason then and - >> maybe a bigger reason now. >> it may be i would argue when the valuation disclosecations are there, you can't own just any, some have weaker balance sheets, but i don't think you want to write the group off. for example, financials are the best performing sector coming out of downturns handily you do not get a rally without financials participating >> that may be fair and fine, but are they the best performing going into a downturn? we're still having a debate whether we're going in, not coming out. >> well, i think that we have gone through -- we had two negative gdp quarters last year and that's part of the riddle. that was not called a recession but did create a dislocation we had two negative quarters, not called a recession, but that did create a lot of dislocation in the market, semis, banks, et cetera i would argue that -

>> we already had the recession? >> no. >> i think that you had market participants expecting the recession and i think that created the dislocation. we have not had the recession. the recession we're getting closer to. a higher probability we step into a recession if tomorrow comes out and they say there's a recession are you going to sell stocks >> we didn't have the recession because the business cycle didn't reset the two quarters of negative growth in gdp were caused mostly by an imbalance of exports and imports. the business cycle did not start over inflation wasn't solved. when you think about what happens in late cycle behavior, you usually have high inflation, you have the fed hiking rates, some ingredients were present but the fed was starting to hike rates at that point. we didn't have that reset. we had a little reset in valuations at the time and then a bigger reset in valuations as the year went on, but the economy didn't slow down and then it continued to over heat to a point where we are now where the fed continues to try to save it and i heard you say

earlier in the show that the fed -- >> the treasury put. >> the treasury put. >> that may be true, but here's the problem -- >> he's the one that quoted you correctly. i did not. apologies. >> even if that is there, if it occurs in the next call it two months, it's going to occur with an inflation problem that still exists and that's really what the fed has been trying to avoid, which is exactly what happened back in the early '80s where we didn't get a handle on it, and it took off even more. we're stuck right now in a period where we almost need to hear some of this negative economic data, we need confirmation that things are slowing down and demand is a problem, perhaps because credit has contracted, in order to reset the cycle. i think the question right now isn't necessarily are we going to have a contraction. it's, how bad is that contraction going to be and how long will it take us to come back out on the other side the draw down is usually much faster than the recovery

i think that's probably the bigger risk. >> i would agree but make two points the first is that there's a symmetry to the inflation spike. when you see things that have gone up to the degree that you saw inflation go up, i would argue that you should expect a similar pullback and we are seeing that in the numbers they are coming through. if you - >> no. >> in goods. >> if you annualize the last four months it is lower. it is. if you annualize the four months and m 2 is the most negative since the great depression if you adjust it for inflation. >> the problem is what we've learned from the data is inflation is sticky. >> it is sticky. >> not plummeting down at some big, you know, go off the cliff. it's coming down, obviously, and undeniably - >> we'll see about that. >> how many times do we need to see before we say that's not necessarily the case >> i mean, again, step back. the fed had the patient on the operating table. they injected the patient with morphine and then started hacking at the patient and said you have to get back on the table because there's a problem.

we created this issue because of a supply chain dislocation with china and pumping the economy with money so it has been stickier because we needed people to go back to work we were incentivizing those people to go back, but nonetheless, inflation is rolling over, you're going to see rates continue to moderate and the numbers will point to lower inflation numbers. central banks around the world said they are going to pause. >> do you think we're -- >> what if they hike next month? >> i think that would be a mistake. they might. >> hope doesn't get you anywhere what if they do? >> if they do doesn't change my thesis, but it's like blood flow restriction therapy, the more you tighten, the more you have to loosen it. >> they back themselves if they push it higher that's why the futures are saying you should expect cuts because the market knows it's kind of like training for a marathon i have 30 days, add a day, a mile each day, are you going to make it? you're not you're going to be injured and the market is looking at this

and saying you will not make it to the marathon, cannot add a mile every day you will get injured the market knows this and pricing that in to some degree and i do think that if you look at the trajectory of rates. >> yep. >> they're going to have to move lower. >> unless the market has to get more in line with the fed like it did not all that long ago. >> yeah. >> like liesman says of the jobs report last week it was weaker, but it wasn't weak enough to keep the fed on the sidelines. >> right. >> is the fed on the sidelines with john's market up a lot and treasury secretary yellen saying the economy is, obviously, performing -- used the word exceptionally well, solid job creation, inflation gradually moving down, robust consumer spending, not anticipating a downturn in the economy, does that sound like, you know -- the former fed chair herself, sound like a fed about down? >> well, that's an interesting comment she made but in terms of the -- >> she's channeling you. >> she is, but i'm a little

surprised she was that, you know, aggressive with some of those points from her. nonetheless, i do think that the rates are going to go lower, scott, inflation is rolling over you already see it the numbers are coming in. i think by the end of the year we will be at 3.5 inflation. it's hard to see a scenario where inflation remains as sticky with the credit contraction that has occurred because of silicon valley, signature and silvergate. >> i am surprised at those comments there is a good amount of evidence that consumer spending is slowing down. we have retail sales coming this week there's a lot of data that's going to come in between now and that may 3rd meeting and i think there is a really good chance, half of the s&p earnings by then, there's a good chance that there is a market hiccup at best

and it will maybe scare the fed out of going again i don't know that 25 basis points makes that much of a difference i don't know that juice is worth the squeeze and the expectations in the market can change very quickly, so if i had to put my money on it today i don't think they go again. >> real quick. >> make one more point. >> quick. >> i use the shower analogy. the fed says - >> you have a lot of analogies >> turning off the top of the shower but ten turn on the bottom they've offset all the qt opening the discount window. they offset all of that. saying we're restrictive and raising rates but secretly turning on the faucet below. they're already started easing and had to expand the balance sheet. >> some look at that and say that's exactly why inflation is not going to come down as fast as you and others say it will. okay i'll see you later in the market zone. >> thanks so much. >> thank you. >> let's get to our twitter question what will tomorrow's headline cpi number be? above 6% 5.5 to 6 or below 5.5?

head to @cnbc closing bell on twitter. results later on in the hour we're just getting started up next rally or retest? top technician jason hunter is back and breaking down where he he sees stocks heading from here and later under the radar growth picks, back highlighting where she sees opportunity at post nine live from the new york stock exchange and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity.

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highs of the day for stocks with less than 40 minutes to go. the dow towards a 200 point game, s&p near 15 points, a third of a percent and nasdaq which has been down the entire day is trying to work positive as we have this conversation, let's go to kristina partsinevelos now who has a look at some of the stocks leading us higher here. >> carmax is one because of its quarterly earnings just smashing analyst expectations thanks in large part to cost-cutting efforts and not demand it's not all good news the auto giant missed on revenue and cited a number of headwinds including rising rates, tightening lending centers and low consumer confidence. the stock is on pace for the best day since april 2020. shares are up almost 11% right now. bitcoin, talk about positives, trading above 30,000 since last june giving a nice boost to coinbase that you're seeing here, up 6% and smaller crypto

players like micro strategy and marathon digital up 17% at $10.60. >> we'll see you in a bit. kristina partsinevelos thank you. s&p 500 bouncing more than 6% over the past month driven bay rotation back into the mega cap tech trade our next guest, though, believes the charts are signalling a poor risk-reward setup from here. joining me jason hunter, jpmorgan's head of technical strategy welcome back good to see you. i just finished a conversation with somebody pretty positive on the market, but then i have chris harvey who says sell before may and go away, it's not so great what's your take >> yeah. i would agree more with the latter since the s&p 500 had gone to 4100 in december, we shifted from a positive buy which we adopted in the september, october period when the index looked attractive at 35, 3600,

to one that's take your chips off the table and increasingly get getting more negative as we move into this year and see the rotation we've seen, where the risk-reward does look very unattractive at these levels and the asymmetry to the downside, even in our base case view, a retest of 3500, is attractive and the risk that comes with slowdowns and recessions, nonlinear, feedback loops that could kick in. at these levels, we don't like holding risk here. >> you have these events like tomorrow morning which could throw a wrench in what technical analysis would tell you to do. isn't that correct >> with the cpi print coming tomorrow we not only look at the world through a technical lens, we do cross-market modeling and a macro overlay to our work and one of the things we look at is the s&p as its price versus fed expectations a model for many quarters now that look at the terminal rate, how much is priced on the back of the terminal rate and given

how dovish the markets priced they have the fed going to roughly a 5% terminal rate 235 basis points eases on the back of that, that's basically taking the fed back to neutral so could there be shifts around the edges for that we don't think that's going to be a huge game changer here at this point whether that takes the terminal up and puts another hike in the forwards or speeds up the pace of eases, at this point with the fed priced toward neutral within a two-year period give or take, we think that's as dovish as the fed is going to get priced unless you start to price in something like claims starting to move substantially higher or the demand side breaking, which naturally wouldn't be a good thing for equities either. >> if i give you a pullback what's a key support level i need to look out for >> right around or just above the 4,000 level for the s&p. a move below that would certainly sideline the bullish short-term momentum and get the market into cta signal levels that could trigger momentum

based selling. bigger picture, 3760 has been the key support on this range within a broader range playing out over several quarters now. in my view the break below the 3760, that will be as, you know, when market participants fully embrace the idea that we are going into a slowdown. and like i said, our base case view is an alternate bottom near 3500, waiting for that capitulation before we suggest it's time to put money to work again. >> how should you view or our viewers view what's gone on in tech and some of the growth names? a tremendous rally wave seen from the beginning of the year in nasdaq. how vulnerable does that part of the market look to you >> again, going back to the cross-market model we use, pricing, various indices against the shape of the money market curve, things like the jpmorgan economic surprise data index, with that sharp rotation that started out in january, as a position squeeze, where people were very under weight, the quality growth names, the first part of this rally we've seen in

2023 was a short squeeze or an under weight squeeze let's call it, everything over the past month, month and a half, has been more seems like more of a chasing rally, momentum to the upside at these levels now, the nasdaq is actually more over priced versus the shape of the money market curve than the broader s&p. what that is is a very crowding in a handful of names, if you look at the market bred as it's rallied, it's mega cap tech and then the defensive sectors like today we've had the occasional day where cyclicals have led today the day where opec surprised with the cut in production, but that's been the exception. it's mostly been defensives and mega cap as money has moved to things like quality and the few big names within the nasdaq, given how much that rally has unfolded we think at this point, mega cap tech may be more at risk than cyclicals when the data really starts to show signs of a slowdown. >> we shall see. jason, appreciate your time. thank you.

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. growth stocks out performing value names by nearly double so far this year and our next guest says the recent rotation is helping some lesser known names in that group. let's bring in ankur crawford once again, executive vice president and portfolio manager at alger welcome back we generally talk growth stocks when you come and tech and stuff like that. i want you to react to what my prior guest said about looking especially vulnerable given the move that we've had? do you agree >> i think, again, we have to -- we have to parse out growth. there's some growth that is looking a little bit pricier and more expensive. >> which kind? the mega caps? >> not the mega caps.

>> even though they've run a lot they don't look too expensive. >> they have a lever that a lot of other companies don't, which is, taking down their labor force and protecting earnings and growing free cash flow and earnings some of the mid cap higher growth names, those are going to be more at risk and they have run on a relative basis, and have out performed. >> your pitch today is that we should look at some of these lesser known names that we don't talk probably enough in your estimation, names you like, like acadia health care. >> yeah. absolutely health care in general becomes a bastion of safety in times of volatility. >> feels like everybody likes it right now. >> yeah. so, you know, it had a rough q1 and has come rebounding back as we worry about the economy a little bit more, and acadia is a behavioral health hospital unfortunately we have a mental health crisis in the u.s. and ap

addiction crisis there is 35% of their beds are devoted to addiction and they should benefit from the opioid settlements, but there's also the supply-demand imbalance in the market for a mental health hospital, that is growing beds 30% over the next three years, we think it sets up to have good growth, but also have good visibility. >> so i'm looking at amd, right, because video gets all the headlines for obvious reasons, the stock up a ton, and the valuation is too why is amd no slouch either, up more than 30%, year to date, 35, as a matter of fact, so why is that on your list? >> so, amd, people forget that they, too, are a beneficiary of the compute that is going to be required to drive the next decade of generative a.i. and a.i. and cloud computing >> which is why nvidia has gotten all the love, right

>> that's right. >> it's all about a.i. hype. >> right a.i. and amd is a little bit behind nvidia in terms of the technological progress they've made, however they will be there. will they capture 80% of the market no but they will take their fair share of the market. >> what about the consumer you're not giving up on the consumer yet, are you? >> well, you know, some of the consumer, if you look at the chinese consumer, we're not giving up on the chinese consumer we think it's misunderstood that china hasn't really reopened in the way that we would have expected however, you know, there has been friction in the chinese economy, as the consumer wants to travel, they actually can't travel because the planes aren't reactyvated and there aren't enough pilots. chinese travel is at 40% internationally of what it was precovid domestic travel is 80% of what it was precovid.

we think that's just a frictional issue and the chinese consumer will begin to travel again with pent up demand. >> let's look to tomorrow morning. you sat down and you said you see the options market is implying a huge move in the morning. >> yeah. >> big binary event is coming tomorrow morning with cpi. >> well, i didn't think so because i kind of felt like the days of worrying about cpi were behind us inpart because it wa a tell of where the fed needs to go i think, you know, even the fed understand that, you know, it's 25 band they have to be done because they're walking a fine line right now of -- i don't envy powell right now, given how fine a line he has to walk. >> because of the banking issue that, you know, we're still worrying about, run on effects of what happens with credit, et cetera >> absolutely. on the one hand you have the banking issue. on the other hand if you ease too fast, you know, you'll get runway inflation

if they want to get to their 2% target, which i still don't understand and i -- why 2% is the target, but we are still running tomorrow is going to be 5.2 or 5.6 on headline and core, which is what is consensus you know, i think that they have a -- they're really between a rock and hard place right now. >> does that keep you from being more bullish overall in the market, because you're worried about pushing it too far >> i think - >> further than some say they've already done >> i think we have to be very data dependent right now i'm looking at employment numbers and seeing how those trend and at what ferocity they decline. we talked about 3800 to 4200 in the market and we're still bouncing around in that range -- >> can't get out of this range. >> you have sector rotations so it's interesting because, you know, tech did very well and health care poorly, now industrials are starting to fall off and health care is coming

back, and so you're getting these sector rotations at the same time as you're bouncing around the market. >> good to have you back we'll talk to you soon ankur crawford joining us right here at post nine. up next the biggest movers as we head into the close of about 20 minutes or so to go. kristina partsinevelos. >> analysts are betting whirlpool shares can rally 20% i'll have those details and much more after this very, very short break.

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anaheim? big time. more guacamole? i'm on a roll-ay. how about you? i'm just visiting. u.s. bank. ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with retail banking in california by j.d. power. just shy of 20 to go before the close. let's get back to kristina partsinevelos now for a look at more stocks to watch. >> we've got home construction and improvement a theme right now. mohawk industries is higher capital upgrades the floor manufacturer to a buy from hold. analysts say the margin outlook is improving as raw materials and logistic costs return to historical norms, in time for the renovations this summer. whirlpool an upgrade from neutral to buy by goldman sachs. stabilized in march and could support pricing and drive profits. whirlpool up 4%. end on carrier global in positive territory as the

company considers selling or spinning off the fire and security unit according to the "wall street journal." the stock up 3%. carrier global scott? >> all right thank you. the last chance now to weigh in on our twitter question of the hour we asked, what will tomorrow's headline cpi number be above 6%, 5.5 or below 5.5 head to cnbc.com "closing bell" on twitter do not miss an interview with warner brothers discovery ceo david zaslav on the back of the company's streaming event. 'lbeig bk.wel rhtac

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the results now of our twitter question, we asked what will tomorrow's headline cpi number be? 5.5 to 6 is in the lead with 40% of the vote. 6% the last headline read. that's an interesting trend if that's what it is. see what the s&p 500 does on the back of that moderna's move lower, we'll dig into that. what is weighing on that name. an under the radar apple supplier for your portfolio. john maury back to make the bull case when we take you inside the market ze xtonne chnology lets yu monitor your pet when you're not at home, but to monitor threats to your hybrid workforce wherever they are... you need more than technology. you need cdw, who gets to know your business and can design and deploy custom solutions, with pre-configured hp notebooks with hp wolf security. ai-enabled threat detection and remote management protect your endpoints 24/7, giving your defenses some real teeth. bummer. hp makes always-on remote security possible. cdw makes it powerful.

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here we go in the "closing bell" market zone. john is back of nfj has a bull case with the emerging markets and one apple supplier he thinks could be a winner meg tirrell on moderna's weakness and bob pisani with us breaking down the crucial moments of the trading day john, to you first, what is this apple supplier and an emerging markets play at the same time? >> emerging markets are over 50% of global gdp but they make up only 15% of the total portfolios they're under represented in indexes and equally under represented in people's portfolios a lot of reasons investors should look, specifically though with -- if you have a pair of airpods in your pocket on the back it says luck share precision. >> i do. >> there you go. luxshare

in 2018, it had $5 billion in revenue. today it's $33 billion it's trading at 15.5 times earnings, trading closer to 30 just a couple years ago. so deep discount, growing dividend every year for a decade, compelling valuation and i would argue having apple as your biggest customer is a good thing. >> emerging markets in general relative to the u.s. >> emerging markets are deeply discounted and have been if you go back to october of last year, that is when the dollar peaked. the dollar is down roughly 13% since then, scott, you've seen the emerging markets out perform the s&p by over a thousand basis points i think we have a long way to go emerging markets valuations are back to similar levels you saw in '02 what's fascinating about the '02 point you kneed dislocations to occur to get us to that valuation level. because of the strong dollar, a result of the fed jacking rates quickly, as well as the pessimism around china, occurred with russia, taiwan, all the

reasons we've discussed previously, all of those reasons culminated in a big dislocation in the emerging markets and i think it warrants attention in investors portfolios. >> no worries about a slowdown at all relative to this play >> they just reopened. they're starting to come back to life a little bit. i think that it's -- the valuations are acceptable given some of the headwinds and china is a complicated story but the second largest economy in the world warrants a positioning think about the internet, china has over a billion users of the internet, more than the u.s. and eu combined. i think there's a story there on the consumer as they continue to modernize that economy. >> we have a good fade going on by the way into the close here dow up by 185. now up 85. nasdaq was trying to work positive, it's negative again. there's the dow, still positive, of course, but not nearly as strong as it was 15, 20 minutes ago. moderna a drag all day long,

down 3% today on the vaccine news, right? >> yeah. they are testing a flu vaccine using their mrna technology and this is one of the nearer term opportunities to bring them beyond covid a lot of skepticism about the program and they've kind of not managed to break out and show it looks ber than the existing flu vaccines and today was another set of kind of not just terrible news but not great news on it either the first interim look at their phase three trial in the northern hemisphere wasn't good enough and didn't have enough cases to say this is so much better we can stop now they have to keep going with the trial to get the data to be able to get that efficacy look. it does look great on an immune response basis, superiority against influenza a, the most common type, but we are going to have to wait longer to see the phase 3 results adding to some of the skepticism this program is going help bring them beyond covid. >> still have high hopes, right, in other areas and enlighten us

on that note >> absolutely. on the res respiratory franchise their goal was to combine flu, revenues rsv and covid into a single shot, product sales of 8 to 15 db by 2027 the street points out that's a pretty wide range and looking for the visibility there, most importantly on the near term, this weekend we will get updated data on their personalized cancer vaccine, a product they're partnered with merck and drove the stock up quite a bit. a lot of excitement, and it might be baked in so we have to see what update looks like a name to watch on monday morning. >> good stuff. dwoef we will do that. >> bob pisani, i mentioned a fade towards the close off of where we were. >> it's noticeable we had a nice rally going, heading for 4124 that would have been a new breakout and just in the last 15 minutes, we faded. the primary problem is technology which is down microsoft is down $6 right now that's 50 points on the dow.

>> the sector is down 1%. >> 1%. >> biggest decliner out of the s&p. >> salesforce down $3 as well going to fade. apple down $1. the most important thing is, tech is down, but we had great rallies going into the cycle groups and sclar was off the highs for the day and that's fading we had a move up in procter & gamble and fading late in the day. what we're getting is a little bit of people lightening up. it's been a great rally. it's been two days where we've had the cyclical names move up, industrials and materials and consumers. cyclicals like home builders two great days, now coming off we see some of those defensive names, health care, we've seen great moves up in proctor, kimberly clark, general mills and they are fading a little bit. i don't think there's any headlines that i saw, but that's what's going on. >> i'm thinking it's trying to

game out or position at least in some respects tomorrow morning and cpi, what do you think as you look ahead to this critical number >> the market's position for a benign cpi, the market wants to believe in the soft landing, and it needs to have a continuing slow decline in the cpi to support the soft landing thesis. if that's not true the numbers we talked about earlier on the earnings on the third quarter and fourth quarter is too high if there is no soft landing the numbers are wrong and they have to come down dramatically. everyone is on either side of the divide you had the strategists that want to distance themselveses from the soft landing thesis. >> fed minutes tomorrow afternoon are going to be interesting. they're backward looking but going to put you in the room an give you a good idea of how intense the debate was around the last interest rate hike as we glean what is going to happen not only in may, but subsequent meetings from there. >> a lot has changed since the

last meeting we've austin goolsbee with his 2 cents. >> dovish. >> basically saying don't necessarily count me in on another rate hike, the implication was, the way we read it. >> yes the tightening of the credit market is going to do the fed's job for it. >> that's right. he said specifically, he cited research that said 25 to 75 basis points with this banking crisis could be worth that in terms of potential rate hikes and put a real number on that and that's a pretty wide number, 25 to 75 basis points. >> even as technology has been, you know, more disappointing of late, at least in the last few sessions or so, people aren't giving up on it. you saw today as, you know, you worked your way back towards as we're showing the xlk down 1%, you worked your way back towards the flat line. you have to prove to people that this sector is way over done for them to lose belief in it. >> well, look at the enormous

run up in the sectors in the last even the last month even the semiconductors, you get an nvidia up 80 or 90% and down 4.5, 5% in a week, you get e-mails about its break in the trend line there but the numbers are still way, way up and this is still a very profitable sector. >> the other place we need to keep an eye on, obviously, interest rates given what's going to come tomorrow morning amid an environment that's had a more steepening yield curve which has reinforced those recession fears. you have to believe that's going to be the first place you're going to look. >> yeah. >> i know you will look at the futures tomorrow morning but tomorrow the bond market. >> we want signs of the cpi moving to the downside if there's concerns out there about the fed is going to be much more aggressive of course those declining rates will change. >> it's an interesting day i pulled up whirlpool, gets the

upgrade, interesting spot, to get an upgrade in the environment. 2.75%. >> one of the discretionaries that have done well. mohawk did well today. >> thanks to john and thanks to bob pisani that does it for us. all roads lead to cpi. morgan brennan and jon fortt sets you up for that right now. >> a mixed session for stocks as the s&p clings to 4100 the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. we've got a big show coming your way. we'll talk to the ceo of company tilray whose stock is down on the back of a revenue miss. >> plus, crowdstrike ceo george kurtz will join us following the government's summit today in washington. >> let's get to our market panel. joining us are adam from vital knowledge and eric from kantor fitzgerald