tv Fast Money CNBC April 11, 2023 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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that's going to be impacting them, as well. that's why this debate is going to be pretty, i think, severe, i think it's going to be an important debate >> thomas, thank you, appreciate it >> you're very welcome good to be with you. >> all right, going to be a busy day tomorrow for the markets that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" begins right now. right now, are housing stocks and home improvement names sending the market the message about where rates are going and the nefed's next meeting? plus, one firm's look at microsoft's cloud business. then, a new round of stock trading troubles in washington a look at the lawmakers who made moves in bank stocks around the time of the silicon valley bank collapse and later, bitcoin's new mil milestone. a look at what's into their climb back at 30 can here with us tonight, a full
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desk and signs of strength in one of the most interest rate sensitive areas of the market. the philadelphia housing index jumping 2.5% every component rising with the biggest gains coming from mortgage companies radiant and pennymac as well as builders like dr horton and lgi homes housing adjacent names getting bumped, mohawk industries and whirlpool. so, as we await tomorrow's all-important cpi print, is the market telling us that the fed has already done what it's going to do? guy? >> that's the hold, clearly. i would agree with that, the fed is probably within 25 basis points of being done, which is fine and a lot of people would acknowledge that's probably the right course of action my contention so far incorrectly is this lag effect will take place at a certain point, and the market, the economy, will start feeling the effect, the impact of 500 basis points of hikes over the last nine months or so. but the names you mentioned, that's one thing we haven't -- you look at phm, that's within
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30 cents or so of an all-time high dhi, another home. mohawk, which you mentioned, that's fine. stocks trading 100 it's still down over 50 something percent from its recent high, but you have nice little double bottom so, i think in some aspects, people are looking at opportunities to trade in terms of the home builders that we talk about, supply/demand. it's got nothing to do with the economics. it comes down to supply/command a and they're trading that way >> if you know where the rate is, that's a good thing to deal with >> i think it's her that -- i mean, if you are out looking for a home now, i would feel differently than you did three, four months ago, about, well, prices may have moved down in your avor, but -- so, i think that's part of it. i don't know if the fed's done or done-ish, and i don't know if it matters so much, because i think we've seen the peak-ish for rates, and for mortgages, but i think the overbuilding or
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lack thereof has been so important. there's nothing close to the dynamic that we saw in '08 >> it's more of a supply/demand issue, which is keeping the stocks afloat, versus the rates issue. but to guy's point, if there's going to be a recession, who is buying a home? that's the lag effect you were referring to, correct? >> yes i think that's probably true and i think there's still some tail winds to these home builders, because, again, it is a supply/demand thing and that takes a long time to wash through. we didn't have the '08-09 excess in any way, shape, or form, and people are still trying to figure this out. i still think the stocks are ownable. at a certain point, you're going to run into steve's problem, i think, in terms of the stocks, that's probably at the back half of this year, early next year. >> i'll tell you, only one more little added thing, the tail wind and this could be the early cycle of it. there's a lot of people that are buying homes for cash. that's still an element now.
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>> cash, okay. >> and that could run its course and then you could see weakness. >> tim, how do you sort of navigate this, especially, you know, you also have the tail wind of input costs coming down, but for right now, right, you know, right here, right now, we are seeing employment pretty strong still, so, people are still employed and so, they can still buy a house. even if a recession is coming we might be in sort of a sweet spot, at least for now >> well, the housing stocks and housing sector have gone up as rates have kind of gone off of that svb bottom on where we bottomed out back over 2% today. but i wouldn't be doing cart wheels about this snap-back. the housing stocks traded down as if they were regional banks, and if you look at the xhb, it's still down, i think, 4% on a five-day if you look at some of the building materials, they're down seven or eight you look at otis, trane, the hvac equipment if you look at that whirlpool upgrade today, that was
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interesting to me, because whirlpool, i think, is a world class company who, you know, largely, is called defensive when 50% of demand is just replacement. supply chain issues hit them as hard as anybody. and nothing like a crisis to make a company more efficient, so, after trading down 45%, i love the call on whirlpool, i don't get carried away with housing. guy has been right about this move in housing. part of it for me is also that i don't want to buy the home builders that are so far off of those lows that i think you priced in a lot of good news >> yeah, so, where within the housing sector, because you can be in the builders, you can be in the suppliers, you can be in the retailers. >> whirlpool is interesting. home builders, i would understand if people say, you have to pull the rip cord. i would rather be early than miss the entire move down, because it happens very quickly. but a name like whirlpool, for example, reports at the end of the month, which is fast approaching. $260 stock it got basically, not cut in half, but i think it went down to 160 or so be in valuation now, you can
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make a pretty compelling case. and people will start to, i think, layer into some of these names. so, in terms of trades, they set up pretty well >> if housing was truly strong on its own, i think you would start to see home depot or lowe's sort of confirm the moves. when you look at the charts, it is definitely not as powerful as the housing stocks, which mean it's probably a little overdone in the builder world >> what do you need to see from them to confirm the move rises in home depot? >> yeah, i think people would get ahead of it and say, if building stocks are going to be okay, they're going to be using a lot more building materials to put into those -- those houses going forward. >> karen, what is your thoughts on -- you own lowe's >> i actually own some whirlpool, which i've owned, up and down, so, that was -- i could have sold it 50 points ago. i like it, though, i like the supply chain issues being --
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helping their margins, so that's good i also like zillow, because zillow is asset light, and it's not great when there's not a ton of transactions, but i think that we are going to start to see more transactions. and i love the light model i love how they're changing the his be model to actually share some of the agent fees and i think they've done -- you know, that turnabout they did, the aboutface of, we're in the home buying business and we're out, embarrassing disaster, but i think really incredible moment for a management team to just say, we blew it, and we're getting out as quickly as we can and they really did a great job getting out. they top ticked the market so, they do have this redfin, i guess it's a sort of -- they'll send over a referral and share some fees there, but it's not super cheap here, but i love the asset light part of the business >> should we be looking for
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indicators such as, you know, private equity firms, tim, getting in or getting out of housing in order to confirm or dispel the moves that we're seeing >> well, they're usually the smart money. they certainly were very smart in post kind of tarp land after the crisis and buying up a lot of distressed properties and blackstone was at the top of the list so, give them credit for being there. i don't think you're seeing that and i think also some of it is partly on the basis of where capital's a little bit different. i this i thnk the housing markei a very different place than it was after 2008-2009. i think there are buyers out there. i just get back to a home depot, there are stocks that people want to buy when you have those moments, when you have washouts. home depot is one of those for me and if at 250 it was a stock that, boy, i can't wait till we're at 250 again, i think you're supposed to be nibbling
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on it here and this is one of those stocks, as you've seen them get through and cut back, also on some places where they can be a leaner company, the margins in their pro business continue to be very strong and i think they're digital business is part of why their margins and their multiple deserve to be higher >> it's interesting. you can't do this, i understand, but if you were to back out the move we saw in december of '21, the stock was $400, because everybody was flocking to low de home depot, it's been a very orderly move we're skewed because it cascaded lower. but it's trading at a market multiple, which in home depot world, is actually very reasonable and you have until may 16th, i think, in terms of earnings. so, you have some runway to be long this stock, as well >> all right, barring a surprise jump in inflation tomorrow, our next guest believes the street is wrong about the fed's next move paul, great to have you with us.
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wrong in predicting 25 basis points at the next meeting >> i think the fed's going to be on hold at the next meeting, so i disagree with where the front feds fund futures are priced and i don't think the street at large, my old economic com community, is convinced, that's 70% odds, that's where the marketplace is i think we're having a very lively debate in the community, and i think we're having a very lively debate at the fed and i think that the speech this after was absolutely marvelous and framed where the debate will be going into may 3rd. >> so, if they pause at this next meeting in may, does that pull forward a pivot a pivot meaning a cut? >> yeah, it does we pause and then a pivot. i think the last hike back on the 22nd of last month will prove to be the last hike, but they certainly would not be
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declaring that at this stage of the game they will be declaring essentially, i think, that they're going to pause and they're going to look at the data coming in, recognizing that what's going on with distress in the banking system is going to work in tandem with what they already have done with 500 basic points worth of tightening almost so, i don't think there will be a table-pounding declaration that this thing is over at the next meeting, but unambiguously, i think there should be a pause and i think that as we move out in the next week or two, that the street will move in that direction from the standpoint of pricing the odds >> paul, it's karen, thank you for being on so, if you are right, let's say they pause and they have this somewhat dovish and we'll look at the data kind of take on where we stand right now, where do you think things need to be in terms of the cpi or -- or unemployment for them to actually pivot and cut
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>> i think you need to have continued disinflation in order to get the pivot and i think you're going to get that i think you're going to get that and i think also need to see some more softening in the labor market we've already seen a slowdown from where we were, we're seeing deceleration in the wait side. so, i basically say, more of the same both on the disinflation that's engrained and also the deceleration in the labor m market, just more of the same for another three to six months, i think, is the raw material of them pivoting, because remember, we're starting from a standpoint of an inverted curve, a deeply inverted curve, and that, in itself, has profound negative pressure on the banking system, so, essentially, all of the parts are coming together in a
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pause and then a pivot so, you don't need to have a recession or another run, which i don't think that we will get you just need to have more of what's in train and the train move down the line another three to six months. >> so, the backdrop in your view, paul, for an actual cut is not necessarily a recession? that would seem to me that that would just light the fire once again for assets to become inflated again, if the markets aren't actually going to get a recession to see that cut. we're not retraining the markets in terms of how to think about monetary policy. >> well, you are basically setting up a construct conc conceptionally, melissa, that you can't get a cut without a recession. so, by definition, that takes a soft landing off of the table. so, i think that getting all of the variables moving in the right direction is a p
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prerequisite, but also, i cannot overestimate the importance of the starting point being a severe inverted curve, which is going to give you a continual bleed of deposits out of the banking system not a run, but as jim bianco calls it, a walk and i think that's going to put pressure on net interest margin or nims, and will reinforce the pull-back in risk appetite by the banking system so, those are all of the ingredients, i think, for a pivot. and that issue of the inverted curve is hugely important, because its sheer existence magnifies, if you will, the stress and pressure in the banking system >> so, this is a question i probably would have never asked you, paul, but i'll ask you this time if they do actually cut this year, and there's not necessarily this hard recession
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that happens along with it, that prompts that cut, what do you think happens to the stock market i would guess that you would say it rallies and is that what the fed wants >> yeah, the stock market wants to go up it has wanted to go up this year, because you've had long-term interest rates come down or put differently, long duration bond prices go up, and the stock market is a long duration asset it's a perpetual so, i think the stock market wants to go up we saw the leadership and the longest duration stocks logically over the last month, and i think as we move out in time, and this scenario unfolds, that you will see a shift in the leadership in the marketplace for the simple reason that the long duration growth stocks have already had a serious party, with the long end coming down. when the short end of the curve
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comes down, and we reslope the curve, then i think you'r more garden variety main street stocks will catch a bid and this will not be a stock market that is so led by such a few mega growth stocks. so, i think the leadership will change over time, but the general direction should be up, if you get a pivot, and also you don't get a recession. >> should ask you about stocks more often, paul thank you. >> thank you >> paul mcculley, professor at georgetown all right, let's play this out the market rallies regardless of what the leadership is. the market goes higher, is that what the fed wants do they want to reinflate that asset? >> i don't believe so. >> i don't believe so, but -- >> they've actually stated that, if you go back over the last year or so, i mean, jerome powell has been asked about that he made a comment maybe nine
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months or so ago as he was walking off one of the things he was talking at, by the way, if you are a millennial and thinking about buying a home, think again. that's paraphrasing, that's what he said. he's talked about the want for asset prices to come down. so, i don't think that want that a cut in the back half of the year may lead to that. if that does happen, you know what's going to rally? commodities are going to rally again. the inflation genie will remain out of the bottle and gold, which is going higher, will continue to go higher and the back of a dollar that's going to get zapped >> tim >> well, couple things p profressor mcculley said wall street over main street this year when main street is having a tough time, wall street tends to rally. and think about the sentiment, think about the positioning, and it sets up look at a market that's traded between 38 and 4150 for a long time and we've been consolidating right at the top of that range i -- i think it sets it up
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ened quickly i'd go to banks, and yes, he's talking about nims, we talked about net interest income, but banks doesn't get the credit and tail wind for nims and net interest income for this fed move they've only been thought of on the downside of deposits l i think we're worried about banks, and if he says the run at banks are over, i'm not saying he's got some crystal ball, but then the banks are cheap, and wall street does outperform main street and it's just something to think about ahead of the big bank earnings i would not get so hung up on net interest income. it's about balance sheets for banks, credit, and the world they now operate in, not net interest income. all right, coming up, a cloudy forecast for microsoft. one analyst cutting estimates for a big segment of the tech titan. that's next. and a big boost for a number of discretionary stocks today, but is the consumer as strong as they seem? we'll debate that when "fast
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money. microsoft dropping more than a 2% today the stock struggling after ubs warned of weakness for its cloud segment. analysts lowering growth segments over the next several quarters, citing slower migration to the platform. the analysts did say microsoft's investment in open a.i. could a positive catalyst for the stock. just wanted to underscore one point, said that street estimates for azure are too high and that's where the disconnect could mean downside for the stock. >> and that's been the tail wind for these stocks just remember what we were all talking about on this desk when svb collapsed. these stocks got a bit that was around march 10th, someone can correct me on twitter. all of them got a build. they all faded or rolled about a week ago so, does it mean that this is -- and they all faded right about resistance so, does it mean now the fundamentals will start pushing these names down when before it
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was all technical? >> january 24th, they reported second quarter stock closed at 240. operating margins came in at 38.7%, down from 43% a year prior, and if you look at azure growth, they said it was going to decelerate. they gave third quarter guidance stock went down to 223 traded up to 290 on the back of this chatgpt ai stuff that everybody is talking about that entire move, all that was was multiple expansion there is nothing good going on with the underlying -- that's all was. why is that happening? people are getting excited about something that may happen. now you're hearing analysts say, you might want to look at the guidance, because we're coming into earnings, you probably are not going to be happy. microsoft at 30 times next year's numbers is an expensive stock. >> and we were talking about apple with the idc data coming out, saying that apple lost share basically. and then with microsoft. so, you put these two together, these are linchpins of the s&p 500, karen should we be worried
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we lose these two, and that's a huge headwind. >> well, we lose these two, but also, if you think about it, alphabet has a big cloud business, as well, that's an important driver for them. so, if there's something here in microsoft, and also for amazon, as well, big cloud -- biggest cloud business, oracle, as well. so, it's interesting the piece -- it wasn't a draconian cut at all, right? so, they're really on the high wire i'm long microsoft i kind of have a bit of a hard time really sticking by it, because i agree, 30 times on what's been, you know, great numbers, but should it be this much of a premium? >> my point was, forget about multiples. this -- all of this bounce was a synthetic bounce because people took their money out of the financial system and put it into large cap tech all of the charts look identical. >> do you think, though, that part of that shift was, if it was really a fear of where your money is, you would put in
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treasuries, which are pretty good >> i'm sure. and people did that, as well >> but also, it's -- wow, rates, they got -- you know, they can't keep raising rates and so, who is the beneficiary of that tech >> i'm sure it could be all of the above. the problem is, when you look at the large cap tech stocks, all of them have the identical chart. they all bounce from march 10th and they all top at around april 4th, april 6th all of them. >> but one quick question, karen. why do you hold onto microsoft then you are a valuation person you saw it's a hard thing to hold onto. >> it's a long-term giant tax game, there's that, and every time i've thought this, ultimately, it does eventually trade higher, if you are patient. but at this point -- i -- it's indefensible >> all right there is a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next the consumer showing some muscle has retail and discretionary
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stocks head orth but can the rally continue the traders weigh in, next. plus, congressional question marks. l lawmakers trading bank stocks amid last month's turmoil. and it' rs raising a few eyebros the moves they made during the recent financial track us can. you'reating wch"fast money"s you'reating wch"fast money"s we're back right after this.my ic designer): as a new small business owner... ...i've learned that trying to be the “cool” boss... ...is a lot harder when you're actually the “stressed” boss. inner voice (furniture maker): i know everything about my new furniture business. well, everything except... ...the whole “business” part. not anymore. with quickbooks, you can confidently manage your business. new business? no problem. yeah. success starts with intuit quickbooks. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain,
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basically unchanged. the s&p today is literally a pair of twos and adds that going back to 1970, in the more 12,800 trading sessions, the s&p has finished unchanged just 29 times. that's less than one quarter of one percent. meantime, some retail stocks gaining steam. ralph lauren, newell brands, pool all up big and carmax up nearly 10% after reporting earnings this morning. tim, less than a quarter of a percent of the time, the s&p finishes unchanged maybe that tells you just how -- i don't know, on the wire it is in terms of the cpi and the ppi reports coming out >> yeah, well, and retail sales also on friday, so there's a lot of important data this week on top of bank earnings, and i can understand the pair of twos, especially because nobody thought it was going to be here.
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but i just feel like this market is giving you a lot of opportunities to trade, so, if you blackjack is a higher velocity game than poker, sometimes you throw your hand down pardon the kenny rogers, i guess was the gambler. sorry for the poker metaphors here i just feel like -- well, you started it i think you have a case here where this is a market, that's probably why it's interesting, because people have continued to think that the market can't go higher meanwhile, back to this breath conversation, and everybody's been right about the reasons for megacap tech outperforming, it's been a safety trade, guy pointed out the absurdity of microsoft and chatgpt and what that means right here and now but before this happened in svb, the breath of the market was outstanding. industrials outperforming, even emerging markets outperforming resources, certainly energy. that got derailed by svb if we are starting to put some of that in the rearview mirror,
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we can have the kind of breath we had before. coming up, trouble trading out of d.c lawmakers making moves in regional bank names amid last month's financial failures the details on that story, next. plus, the sun seems to be shining on crypto. will the surge continue, or is another crypto crush on the horizon? don't go anywhere. more "fast money" inwo t
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u.s. bank. ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with retail banking in california by j.d. power. welcome back to "fast money. "the wall street journal" reporting that a silicon valley bank was collapsing, a number of lawmakers working to deal with the crisis were trading some of the bank stocks in the eye of the storm. representative nicole malliotakis bought stock in new york community bancorp just two days before they agreed to take over signature bank's deposits she discussed signature's closure with regulators prior to her purchase of nycb stock a representative told cnbc told, quote, the financial adviser who manages the congresswoman's portfolio made the recommendation i want to know who that financial adviser is that's pretty good advice. representative israel blumenauer
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disclosed three trades on march 9th, the day before svb failed, they bought shares of svb and sold shares of bank of america. on march 20th, they sold shares of first republic. he is a cosponsor of legislation to tighten restrictions on financial firms. and then there's representative john curtis, a republican from utah he sold shares of first republic and bank of america on march 16th they were made under a joint fund owned by curtis and his wife cnbc has confirmed these trades but not received comments from either so, should we be outraged that lawmakers who are setting policy for, in this case, the banks, and have insight into their operations that we may not have, are trading these stocks let's dive into that kate kelly, "new york times" money and influence reporter in washington and a cnbc reporter great to have you on this topic. you know, i read this article this morning, i'm sure many americans did and just were absolutely outraged that this is -- this happened, that this is able to happen.
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>> yeah, melissa what's interesting here is that this is perfectly legal, as far as we know the stock act of 2012 is the main piece of legislation that governs kind of member stock trading and disclosures and so they've disclosed it, they made it clear what they did and when, and that is sort of the end of their responsibilities of course, they're not allowed to insider trade, none of us are, and the stock act reminded members of that. but you know, i engaged in a six-month investigation of congressional stock trading last year with two colleagues, and found that nearly as fifth of the congress and senate over a three-year period had engaged in this type of trading, which is to say, trading that arguably could have been related to what they were doing in congress. maybe they were on a committee taking care of the financial sector that then they were trading bank stocks in this case it happens that those three are not on a relative banking committee. but legislation in the one case,
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discussions with new york regulators about what was going to happen to a new york charter bank in the other. >> is there any -- what is the remedy for this, if anything, kate do these guys get a slap on the wrist? i mean, is that it >> they won't get anything other than perhaps the headline risk that we're, you know, contributing to with this discussion, right? because again, as far as we know, in the absence of other sort of damaging facts, which we don't have, this is perfectly legal. now, there are legislative fixes that have been under discussion for years in congress and in the senate, and some of them have been reinitiated in the new congress this year one pretty well-known one is essentially banning members from engaging in any sort of trading. they would want people to be in a qualified blind trust and not transact in individual securities nor allow their immediate family members to do that a lot of members of congress think that sort of maneuver is too extreme, so, perhaps we'll
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see a sort of compromise deal at some point where maybe the disclosure time frame is tightened up right now, it's 30 days, with like a grace period of 15, maybe that would get shorter, maybe there would be some limitations put, but not a blanket ban, but so far, there's not been the political will to do this, that i've seen. >> kate, it's karen, thank you so much for being on you said at the top that they are, you know, the insider trading laws still apply, but are they immune from an investigation into whether there was insider trading? i mean, some of this looks so bad, to talk about, oh, i made the trade on the recommendation of my adviser. >> she still made the trade. >> still made the trade. and maybe you said to your adviser, hey, something good is going to happen at nyb, what should i do? >> right, believe it or not, karen -- i think the adviser may be an attempt to say, this was sort of done at arm's length, it wasn't my idea
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when we did this investigation last year, we talked to 100 congressional offices, and that was the explanation, my spouse did it, f.a. recommended it, we have no input. we have a qualified blind trust. as to your question, yeah, absolutely, there's an office of congressional ethics that investigates this sort of thing. there's the committee on ethics, which is not known for as much activism and not a ton of transparency into some of the cases they work on is s.e.c., the doj, even, could open investigations whenever they want to there is one other factor, though, that prevents members oftentimes from being investigated, let alone prosecuted for some of these trades that some may find questionable, and again, i want to make clear, we don't know if these are illegal in any way, we just know what "the journal" told us and what's in the public record but there's the speech and debate clause in the constitution that essentially says that what congress does in its line of work should be protected from prosecution and because of that, and because of sort of differing inter
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pretagtsations of that in different appellate courts, it's very hard to make these cases. one example in recent years was chris collins from new york, and the fact there was, he was on the board of an australian pharma company, he got material information about that company outside of his congressional work and it appears passed it onto family members, and he actually was convicted or some insider trading charges on that. but that sort of a prosecution, very rare. and he was pardoned by president trump. >> in your investigation, kate, your longer-term investigation, did you find that the con congressmen and women who traded based on sort of related information they may have gotten while being in congress, that they had histories of trading, that it wasn't a one-off, that it was -- that they're very active traders, they typically traded pharma stocks when they were sort of related to a pharma committee or what not? >> yeah, that's an interesting question there are some that file a ton
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of financial disclosures one would be ro khanna, mike mckaul they have wealthy spouses who have sort of family trusts, if you will, that trade very actively so, the members themselves say they're not involved, they don't even have visibility, they just file what they're expected to file, and basically, those members families trade the s&p you find they are in practically everything what we found more interesting were members who were trading a little more selectively, and what appeared to be a little more actively, right fewer names, not so rare that they only have, like, one or two stocks, though, if that were the case, i would want to take a look at potentially committee conflicts, but members who trade sort of in a middle zone of, you know, regularly, but not constantly so, you know there's more discretion going on there and you want to know what's driving the process. >> right kate, fascinating. thank you so much for joining us great to see you >> you, too. >> kate kelly of "the new york times. our former colleague so, i mean, this is --
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>> the optics are awful. >> terrible. >> you understand why people get -- it's both sides of the aisle, neither are immune from -- they should be ridiculed for it again, nothing illegal, that we know about, right? but it's flat-out wrong. and whether it's rule or not, you should be able to stand up and say, listen, i understand that i'm allowed to do this, but the -- i understand the optics are awful, i'm not going to do it but go back -- remember robert caplan, dallas fed, eric ro rosengrant, they were fed officials, those cats were trading stocks and we got exercised about that, i mean, it goes all across -- all different areas of government >> if you work on wall street, you wouldn't be able to trade stock -- do you own single stocks >> no. >> you have to be in a blind trust or a fund that you have zero control over. so, why should they have any different? why do they go in, not millionaires, and come out millionaires i mean, has anyone ever thought about that without writing a book where does that stem from, too
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their net worth before they enter and their net worth after when they leave? >> there should be a study on that i want to know if there was really a financial adviser you know, for nicole -- whoever that financial adviser is, they are -- we want them here on "fast money," because that -- >> no thanks >> that was genius >> and then short the other one. >> no thanks the svb two days before. >> and then get hillary clinton to trade commodities for you, too. that was an old, old story, viewers know what i'm talking about there, too. coming up, a bit coin boom the crypto striking a level it hasn't seen since last june. so, is the comeback for real plus, a scaleable opportunity. weight watchers' parent company could soon enter the obesity drug market. it might just be the kick this stock needs. back in two.
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dr. scholl's massaging gel insoles have patented gel waves that absorb shock to hard-working muscles and joints, for all-day energy. (swords clashing) to har-had enough?scles -no... arthritis. here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme. welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin topping 30,000 for the first time since last jub. the crypto-currency up by 10,000 bucks in just the past month is the crypto craze back on? or is another bubble brewing
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karen, you're in bitcoin what do you think? >> i am. what's the difference between a craze and a bubble i'm not exactly sure, but i saw your interview this morning, which was interesting, and basically, this idea of -- two things, one, the fed raising, that was very important for bitcoin and also the bank fear of, you know, i want to have some more security both of those haven be really good for bitcoin i think the disaster o fall was ftx and all the fraud and then, you know, gemini, genesis, all of that seems to be in the rear view mirror at the moment i think, though, if the fed continues, maybe that will cool this -- this rally a little bit. but if they pause, i think there's more to come >> all right options traders are betting bitcoin's move higher means bigger things for one crypto exchange mike khouw's got the action. mike >> yeah, we're looking at coin base coin base is one of the busiest single stock options today 1.7 times its average daily call volume the busiest were the weekly 75
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strike calls we saw well over 28,000 of those trade for $1.44 a contract buyers betting 2% of the current stock price thacould continue fr the rest of the week coming up, one wall street firm going overweight on ww, sending shares storing today we'll bring you the skinny on what's got analysts so excited stick around, the trade and more, when "fast money" returns. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.
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xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back to "fast money. shares of ww topping the tape today after goldman sachs juch gr upgraded the stock to a buy. calling it a catalyst for turnaround the company formally known as weight watchers closing its acquisition of sequence today, giving it access to drugs like 0 semi pick. today's gains almost recaptures the pop the stock got after the deal was announced about a month ago. when you see your business being threatened by a class of drugs, that seems like a smart thing to do >> yeah. it's interesting, right?
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so, goldman had a $3.80 price target on the stock. stock got down to $4, so, they got that side right. now, $13 price, so, it becomes a trading stock, right it's still -- i think karen would admit, the company's probably in some trouble, at least the stock, but doesn't mean you can't trade around it we've seen stocks go up 200% over the course of a week. and it looks like weight watchers is about to have one of those moves. 75 million shares today, typically trades two, probably some more gas left in this tank. >> i thought it was an interesting deal, right? i mean, things are going not in the right direction, so, maybe this can help them out though. but i always look to the debt to get a better picture, and this company has a lot of dealt if we look, this is senior debt, that's not a picture of it, but believe me, it goes way down, the chart goes way down. 57 cents on the dollar there you go so that's telling you there is some concern there about the business continuing to deteriorate. guy -- those are not -- they can
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mutually exist big trading stock and a company that's in a downward trend >> we sat down with the fda commissioner to discuss the new slate of weight loss drugs hitting the market what did he tell you >> well, melissa, we talked about a lot of things about these medicines, because the use is just exploding. this market, just for obesity drugs, could be $30 billion by 2030 these are the medicines from novono novonordis, and lily has the drug mungaro, where they are waiting for approval in obesity, as well. there are a lot of people who are on the label for these medicines, who are eligible for them, but there is a lot of off-label use. i asked the fda commissioner what he thought about that here's what he said. >> off-label use is very common and we can't interfere with the practice of medicine, and we won't do that. we need to make our communications clear about where the evidence exists for where
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the benefits outweigh the risks. up until recently, i was a very busy practicing doctor and i wouldn't want the fda telling me what my judgment should be when i see someone who doesn't quite fit the criteria, but there's a good chance it's going to work what we should be doing is collecting data about off-label use. >> now, he's really focused on following those data and he said, in a better system in the united states, we'd actually be able to use the real world data to be able to track the sort of longer term safety and evfficacy of these medicines so, he's pushing to improve that system he has a lot of optimism about the medicines. mel? >> it is interesting, he is a doctor, right, a cardiologist. so, is there any thought, meg, as to the longer term impact on other franchises of medicine if this drug can actually bring weight down and perhaps prevent
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other did diseases from happeni? >> yeah, you know, there's a hope, of course, that these medicines will translate into fewer heart attacks, fewer strokes, you know, better heart health overall, and possibly, you know, other things, as well. we are going to see a trial readout on that very question for the use in obesity this summer for the novonordis drug i have not seen analysts model that out, the impimpacts on heat medicine but it is something really interesting to consider. >> all right, meg, thank you >> thank you >> tim, where do you stand on some of these drugs as catalysts for these stocks >> well, i -- you know, there's no question that part of this argument around weight watchers is that the addressable market has grown. the concept that america is going to be healthier and there's a, you know, seemingly a way either through a prescription or through your brother's friend or something, but that either way, the helpfulness of this is critical. and i think that, you know, the
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core pharma players out there have major pipelines to support this industry. part of the goldman argument is, the addressable market size has grown so dramatically that it just takes a small piece of that say what you want about weight watchers, but they can almost be the conduit to compliment that and i think that's the main argument here. >> all right, up next, final trades how far we take an idea is a question of willpower. because progress... is a matter of character.
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time for the final trade tim seymour? >> starbucks so, i'm long the stock i'm selling upside calls around 110 to 115 i just feel like, you know, that implies 32 to 33 times i love the company i think you can get it lower >> steve >> abbvie. a little room left to run. >> karen >> yep, well, after you browbeated me with -- >> i didn't browbeat anyone. >> microsoft got to buy some put, but stay long >> guy >> the padres are in town. and i hope to know for a fact that their entire coaching staff and manager are huge "fast money" fans, so i'm sure they're in the clubhouse right now
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before the game watching "fast money. >> i'm sure. >> so, shoutout to the pads. >> nothing better to do. >> why do you say it like that apa corp, you want to look at that chart, that's a good-looking chart right there >> thank you so much for watching "fast money." we'll see you back here tomorrow meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make money. my job is not just to entertain you but to teach you
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