>> i'm sure. >> so, shoutout to the pads. >> nothing better to do. >> why do you say it like that apa corp, you want to look at that chart, that's a good-looking chart right there >> thank you so much for watching "fast money." we'll see you back here tomorrow meantime, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make money. my job is not just to entertain you but to teach you

1-800-743-cnbc we hear it again and again the economy is too red hot there is just way too much wage inflation. we have inflation all over the place and it has topped stopped. which means the fed needs to keep raising rates aggressively. we're told the talking heads are saying, no, thing has changed since the mini banking crisis. so rates need to go even higher for higher prices and higher wages. it makes it sound like the economy is a runaway train headed straight there. even wheelbarrows weren't big enough to buy local. yes. that's a massive exaggeration by me i know that. still, the consumers are at the heart of the overpaying machine. the overpaying machine that is the u.s. economy

at some price, the consumer will, has to, must relent. there will be a moment when the whole edifice collapses. we aren't there yet. we should be but we're not we haven't had any more bank failures so the fed is getting more confident even it may be bravado or it may be obliviousness today two issues that have made it so difficult. the action reflengtd that. the rally down 98 points nasdaq having declined .3% the first problem we saw today was right in front and center. didn't hear a word about it. that's wrong these have been a real sore spot for the feds but they peaked and prices moved steadily lower. i want to you look at the stock of giant used car dealer carmax. it was up nearly 10% say after a spectacular upside surprise.

but just in earnings the ceo painted a grim picture this morning i'm going to quote it here the huge challenges in the used car industry are well documented with affordability pressure by inflation, climbing interest rates, tightening standards and prolonged consumer confidence. and yeah, the average selling price for a used car declined by 9% per unit. roughly $2,700 a year every year total sales to $5.7 million. they were down 26% so far so good this company is so good at what it does, carmax said it made 44 cents per share. the street was only 20 cents this is an unfortunately mixed picture. great for the shareholder, lousy

for the fed. the used car prices were actually down and that affected the stock which soared, igniting the entire industry rally. which by the way, the action pushed up by lithium motors, and then even the the dreadful car vana of course, the game plan doesn't really work unless businesses are actually getting hurt or succumbing to hare rates at some point like they usually do so what is good for car max might not be good for the federal reserve. it isn't causing enough serious pain in this gigantic industry that is the used car business. the fed wants pain if they're going to beat inflation, they need to see some marginal businesses go under that's how it starts once they get enough firms to collapse, they have a real chance to slow things down because of the mass unemployment that would occur if we had a

collapse of major car dealers. but the opposite happened today. the most marginal player in the industry looks increasingly like it will stay afloat. there will be hefty layoffs. you also want a number from carmax that will be bad enough to shake out the weaker players and cause some layoffs and then lower inflation. the fed didn't get it. the strength of carmax is to keep them alive so there are no mass layoffs in this industry after today. even though pricing is substantially down, they've been climbing higher the last three months, complicating matters even further a job undone at least when it come to the poor fit the second problem for the fed stock prices it was housing, stocks were on fire this is an industry that looked like it was finally being tamed

by the fed's relentless rate hikes. they raised rates so fast on the short end that it baked the wrong way. it is now easier to get a 30-year mortgage at a low rate than it should be with the short rates. the long rates are so cheap and that's what mortgages are priced after. it would also push long rates higher it is the the exact opposite of what they want subsequently, housing is in short supply the builders can't put up enough homes to meet demand including municipal rules. the average price of a home has fallen 5 gs, that's not so bad. the lack doesn't sit well with them the fed is trying to promote pain to slow the economy and you won't get true pain unless some business goes under. that's just not happening.

the big dealers are undercapitalized all stocks are pretty close to 52-week highs. they won't quit because they have the down payment money. the buyers aren't going anywhere a 6% or 7% mortgage isn't enough to deter them. especially a surprising number of people paying cash. that's very different. retail is the same way nobody folds nordstrom, absolutely not, gap, oh, please how many marginal players are still in the mall? while they seem to be offering endless sales, there always seems to be buyers only the lonely bed, batted and beyond appears to be cheery. but there are so few stores left that even a bank threat wouldn't move the needle to a decline in the economy. housing, autos, retail these groups are supposed to get

hit the hardest when the fed tightens sure, carmax is doing worse than a year ago but business is too good good enough for him to turn a big profit in the end there aren't enough cars or houses to go around and thats not anything the fed can do about it. every house that is put up has an existing house already. it is bidding wars a reminder that new cars aren't ready to be sold and retail these are supposed to be lean months nothing until mother's day no holidays. but the analysts are getting more, not less bullish that's not supposed to happen now either some of these problems have nothing to do with the fed we still don't have enough cars after the pandemic

housing was stuck in that, too you want to break the back inflation, you need to do it the fed has failed and it didn't even matter. it still didn't help with the consumer price index tomorrow, we can mull over the truth. as long as there are so many people who have jobs, then the tightening process won't end unless we get another big bank failure. this vicious rate cycle will keep going as marginal institution stay available it's a we we saw today with stock praise of car vana. even though car prices were

down, it's not enough to hurry same for housing where houses are holding up better and for retail where nobody seems to go under. it we've made a ton of progress in the fate against inflation. i can imagine j powell is frustrated today because he lost a big battle and can't afford to lose the war >> caller: boo-ya! >> john? john we've got national pet day behind me. i'm sorry. i was rude what were you saying >> caller: i said with all the collapse of the silicon valley bank, baby in the bath water with all regions not equal, whatever do you think about the southeast regional bank? >> okay. let's understand what's going on with these banks

i know the stocks are down but all that's really happening is they are selling at the same prices as money center i think 6% yield no one wants to touch the financials because they think they'll report batted numbers. of the financials, the truest, pnc and you know thiston bank are the ones that most intrigue me buy buy buy. i think we're making a ton of progress against inflation on a day like today, i imagine powell is feeling mighty frustrated we'll look at 5 more dow stocks and determined whether it is the negativity of the investors weighing down the stocks or maybe something wrong with the companies. then tech spent most of last year in the -- with the tech heavy, are we at the pivot

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stop worrying about the fed

or the for boding actions of the bond market. you ask yourself, am i too negative like i told you last night, you probably are which is why we go after household name stocks to see where they're trading versus two years ago. in almost every case, they're much better off. the stock prices, not so much. i'm conducting this exercise because too many investors have forgotten that stocks represent actual companies not pieces on a vast chess board. many can control their own destinies. sure, you can say, of course, stocks are worth less now. the fed is tightening and when that happens it's all bad. but i think they're almost done tightening and we can't forget to miss what they've done just because the bond market says it doesn't matter wall street often prices stock incorrectly based on gigantic

macro economic concerns that could be overthrown overnight by the micro. by what the companies do, for heaven's sake. i want to show you what happens with another batch of dow stocks disney has come crash go down from 188 to 100. pit stop, by the way, 99 even as it has gone from $67 billion in 2021 to a respected $90 billion this year. and the earnings have nearly doubled in that period of course, you can argue that comparisons are easier or even owed just. a lot of that came from disney plus i'm asking to you look from a different prism. they have the best in the world. unparalleled applausement parks. let me know when netflix has built a space mountain of its own. 80%, i'm sorry, it is live and the library of content

what did disney do wrong here? it had the fox deal. when everybody else in the industry was doing the same thing, now they brought back the once and future ceo who interrogatories business hinges on hit movies that turn into rides and merchandising revenue. what this company needs more than ever. peace and quiet and no drama as they find a successor to bob there were wells that were spoiled everywhere with the world going back to normal, he is working to calm things down. the stock is down $90 from where it traded two years ago? despite having better management and better outlook it makes no sense. especially with the cost cuts. how about this one american express this is one of the most misunderstood companies on the planet we've heard so much garbage with

pushing junk ipos that weren't any good at all. yet somehow it is only up less than $15 where it was two years ago. the competition from the bogus ipos has withered away $up $42 billion from the year before while the earnings per share haven't exploded yet the card membership has. it is the dem graphics of this card is exactly the opposite of what you would think the ceo has reminded me over and over again it is mostly from millennials and generation z that's right about 60% are from the card holders. the print readers, they recognize a bargain when they see one when it comes to customer service or return policies all americans staples. they turned out to be far more

important than whatever all the others brought to the party. how are the firm points? did you ever hear that at berg dorf not that i know of i think it is a franchise that is linked to the strongest part of our economy travel and leisure okay then a real stinker. honeywell. can someone help me understand how a company goes from $8 in 2021 to $9.71 per share this year could see the stock fall under the sail period? that's honeywell for you you might think that the business must have deteriorated. you would be completely wrong. honey well's biggest business, aerospace with 33% of the fight is as strong as it's been in any recent memory.

30% of the sale are used in all sorts of segments. the once i like are the ones, the rest of them come from safety people will really cut back on safety now and building works climate controls hospital in one ever rolls back safety standards by the way, i have to remind you, unlike me, never take a vacation i took a day off this year environmental standardsthat require academic standard. he has every right to reshuffle the deck if you're selling it out of fear, you're making a mistake. next dow stock salesforce fat and happy without the discipline efficiencily absorb a couple of large acquisitions, buy back

stocks two years ago they traded $231 there's firing underperforming workers. crushing the assessment. it went to an expected $7.4 mill if it has come down, even if i never saw it, i never got 20 years. why don't you just go buy some it's driving me crazy. this is a stock that was at $230 a couple years ago and it was nowhere near as good as the company is now for several years now, caterpillar's moves have been interested moochb heaven and earth.

not commercial real e sstate, nt road building, not coal, even building in china. the company will get crushed by commercial real estate exposure. even though they think it is not big enough to move the needle. here's what i do know. our government is about to spend hundreds of buildings on infrastructure, bridges, roads at the same time the chinese are roaring back as are minerals and oil. the front money says you're supposed to sell caterpillar are these people nuts? our governments are going to buy. that doesn't go over as well enough already all right. i've watched this stock get hammered a severe shortfall write these down

disney america's best honeywell. salesforce caterpillar. five companies with stocks that have fallen hard while the underlying business have done nothing but get better if you can't see it, i think you're too negative about these stocks and about the market in general. "mad money" will be back >> announcer: coming up, will earnings season be the catalyst to push the averages north cramer checks the charts next you can't buy great conversations

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we've had this weird situation. if you're spending most of last year lost in the wilderness, tech has started to lead us higher yet the leader takes to us higher prices but can tech keep leading the

way or will it get ousted again as so often it does? i'm generally positive on larger tech companies i'm also feeling much better about many of the settings sometimes i like to take a step back and consider the charts get a real to near-term future, special when i earning futures long term i'm convinced that artificial sentence here to stay which is true. stock was down most importantly, tech has been able to come back to life with increasing events that the fed might be nearly done raising interest rates we know it is catastrophic for growth stocks. that's the story of last year. most tech stocks are growth stocks if like me you believe they will be able to back off, special when i the mini banking cross has caused the fed to get more cautious with lending. that makes the whole tech edifice more attractive. so tonight we're going off the

charts the first woman on the active trading decks at fidelity. now she's the director of education and product at options play one word she still consults with all the major firms in the self-directed space. you need to watch the nasdaq 100. that's the 100 largest nontech stocks we did this with the invesco they say this is what we're talking about. the qqq. here it is check out the qqq's weekly chart. they point out this tech heavy index has turned bullish for the first time since january of lastier when the tech bear market morphed into a bear market and it really got its claws into us. more important, she likes to do

a moving average analysis here the 13-week moving average is in purple these are really important we'll go over every one of them. the 26 moving hours is green okay the 40-week is in red. and the 26 is blue you've got to watch the slope of these lines i know what the positions relative to each other and the underlying security. they can tell you a lot about the way things are trending. the 200-week moving average, okay, this is the really long one, okay? it gives you a big picture perspective of nasdaq in the overall direction. currently it is trending upwards. you look at the blue and it is going up qqq is turning bullish for the first time since 2022. we analyzed a weekly chart with

these averages assessing the slope of these lines and the position of the underlying security average remember, 200 weeks is nearly four years so this is an extremely long-term moving average as for the 13 weeks, 26 weeks, and 40 it is one quarter, two quarters, and three quarters respectfully. these can show you a nice rolling quarterly view and what do we have? according to this, and it is like the nasdaq 100, kit only form a solid base when it consistently closes above each of these quarterly moving averages with all three lines exhibiting upwards trends. and that's what we've got. it broke out above all three of these by the week of january 23rd and has continued running higher ever since. so imagine this. this goes on and on.

right here is the bear market. then i've been saying it right down here. we have been trying to get started in a bull market this pretty much confirms that i'm right. so now we'll zoom in and get the weekly chart of the nasdaq 100 going back to 2018 you can see these averages corresponding. this point out when it breaks out above all the quarterly moving averages, you tend to get phenomenal runs. and in 2019 and again in 2020. we had a similar breakthrough. it is a very big deal. what about the rest of the market i want to you look at this daily chart, comparing the actions of the qqq to the action of the s&p 500. this is a ratio of the two the nasdaq is underperforming. you can see so far we've had a

ton of outperformance. in part because the preferences have changed it has somewhat slowed slow she thinks it might not come back until earnings season is in agreement with this. let's circle back to the original weekly chart of the qqq. a solid base forming here at the qqq consistently closes above the one quarter, two quarter, and three quarter moving averages closing above those. that's where we are. crossing all those and these are all higher that's a bullish sign. at the same time, the nasdaq closes around the january 30th hey of 313 there it is right there. with the ceiling of resistance capping it around 3:20 and above that, 332. that will be related to those. and will then, wow

the high last august if it can break through the august high, that will have staying power and it is ready to roar even further. first they need to jump those two hurdles. they can make that happen sometime in the early season i think there are very good chances it is right. getting the benefit of the doubt. look at that 100, yesterday after sam sung stopped churning out tons of memory chips at well below the cost of production, destroying everybody's profit. nobody cares that the near-term numbers are allows yifrlt we finally see that it would turn so we would be buying stocks like micron right here even though it is at the bottom in terms of earnings. we're trying to anticipate it. it is looking pretty darn bullish for the tech heavy nasdaq 100

she wants to see one less breakout before she's willing to go all in. me i am all in. let's take your phone call jerry in missouri. jerry? >> caller: i want to thank you for all you do for us. >> oh, thank you we've been really, between the early meeting in the home stretch. my wife is starting to get real angry with me but i'll do anything for the club. >> caller: the regional banks have really been hit hard. the bank i'm invested in isn't silicon valley bank. it is a good profitable business how long do you think it will take for the good banks to rebound to their previous levels in particular, huntington bank >> okay. it is a very complicated issue thank you. here's the issue what has happened is the price earnings multiples have shrunk

to the big money that's the new posture the yield is good. i think you can get two more points, maybe three points probably not more than that you're being held hostage now by all the money centers because that's how the money views the regional think that's the first time it happened so i understand why you might be frustrated. that's the truth let's to go tommy in new jersey. >> caller: hi, it's tommy. what's your favorite sound >> my favorite sound >> caller: your favorite sound >> i don't know. >> caller: it's money, that's what i'm told. what's your thought on this big run on lockheed martin >> it looks real we're way underfunded when it comes to being able to defend ourselves and our allies and lockheed martin is integral.

and jim, i know you're coming back on the show it is looking pretty bullish look at this turn. this is the turn i've been telling you about. she wants to see it break out to here i say it is already broken out i'm checking in to hear how the telemedicine company for pets is disrupting the space it is pet day after all. all your calls, rapid fair in tonight's lightning round. stay with cramer - [soldier] take a look at this! - they've left us a gift. - [soldier] i think we misjudged them. - i love horses.

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for years we've been talking about the humanization of pets people treat their pets as members of the family which means there's a lot more money being spent on their food and health care. but pet health care is getting increasingly expensive sure, people are often willing tea whatever it takes to keep their cats and dogs in good shape. but if there is a way to cut down on your vet bills, who wouldn't want that that's why today on national pet day, favorite dogs, i want to highlight a privately held company called pawp. you pay $99 a area for unlimited access to veterinarians via video or text message. for an extra $14 a month, they'll give you insurance that covers up to $3,000 for life-threatening and emergency

vet visits in many cases, this is much cheaper than going to the vet in person it has its limitations when dealing with animals that can't speak for themselves at left a mine can't but if they whimper, like, well if a dog is in distress. it is this is worth a closer look let's check in with a private company and speak to mark, the founder and ceo of pawp. welcome to "mad money. right now i know, if we have a problem with our dog let's say it is the middle of the night. we have to walk about ten blocks it's 3:00 a.m. and the fees will be very expensive because the person there doesn't want to be there that late anyway so give me the value proposition versus what i think something that is quate typical. >> i wake up every morning thinking how can i give millions of americans access to quality pet care in a world where you can press a

button, have food delivered to any place, have someone come in and fill up your frig with groceries, we believe it makes sense that in a country where we have 180 million pets taken with dogs and cats, folks can press a button and talk to a veterinarian going to the vet is expensive, cumbersome and causing anxiety to the owners and pets themselves so if we can press a button and have access to a professional, why not do it? it's about time that someone does it. >> so do you think it is a situation where would you call the dog or cat can't speak for themselves you would describe what's wrong. and my dog just ate a raisinette what do i do or may dog has something that they may have swallowed, something they shouldn't have. that dog can prescribe or tell you what tad versus the same information but costs you a lot more money >> what we receive is parents who are -- pet parents

themselves, who are extremely anxious. their dog is going through an episode. they're crying, they just ate raisins -- no raisins, by the way, no chocolate for dogs we're providing them with the care they need very often it is something as simple as, let's watch how your dog behaviors over the next few hours. we're giving them peace of mind. it is very needed. >> do you prescribe? >> we can in certain states. we're following the regulations and rules. we believe there are certain medications that should be given and, or at least prescribed for certain cases and we want to be at the forefront of that >> i think people are always shocked at how much they have to pay for something they think is a bit of a rip-off but it is their pet and they'll do anything. >> correct

pet insurance hasn't worked. the penetration is about 2 to 3% it is extremely expensive, cost prohibitive and complicated west came one a financial product called the emergencyfund it is simple you pay $14 a month in the event of a life-threatening emergency, we would encourage to you rush to a vet clinic and we will end up paying up to $3,000 in exchange >> do you have a list of pet clinics in my neighborhood that are prescribers? >> we have our preferred network. >> we for a whale belonged to one, a tractor supply where there was a vet. i know they're trying to bring vets into petco. how does this work maybe they should have this policy >> i believe pet care is part of taking care of a pet what we're seeing is you mentioned a few retailers.

we're seeing most of the retailers are understanding that pets are family. and allowing folks to have pet products is a problem. a whole suite of services that they're looking at like pet care and we're glad to be working with some of the biggest chain in the country where we can get care to pet care it has been working extremely well >> it they ought to do it. i think a lot of people feel like -- it's not like you come home you're having dinner, you're going to sleep the pet is not feeling well. it is the poverty possible hour. my wife is carrying the dog eight blocks, gets there, and could have easily been told on the phone what to do this makes everybody's life better including the pet's >> i agree

this should have been happening years ago. i'm glad that some of biggest brands in the country are starting to understand that pets are family and yes, if you're doing, you're building with your user base and allowing them, giving them tons of services giving them a pet benefit makes sense. i think a lot of us who have discovered how easy it is to use telehealth would agree with you. >> i'm going to thank the founder and ceo. a great service. phone number, website. >> pawp.com. also on the app service. >> national pet day. you just learned something coming up, cramer takes the

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matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire it is time and then the lightning round is over are you ready? let's start with texas pt in texas. pt >> caller: hey, jim, how about a big boo-ya to you, partner >> why the hell not. i agree with you what's going on? >> a question about remax. is it a secret sleeper

>> no. even though it is low, it is not low enough stay away. let go to brett in missouri. brett? >> caller: what's up, jim? given the recent rise in technologies and data privacy, i want to get your thoughts. >> i think palanti every r, i want to be very plate about it they're not my cup of tea. i'm going to jack in ohio. >> caller: thanks for your help. >> of course what's happening >> caller: hey, my dividend exploded last year with your help >> i'll take it. >> caller: you said a few weeks ago you would like to have someone from the company come until and talk is it okay to add more fcwd >> okay. a tale of two cities he told about how bad things are

but also he is going to make it work i'm going to stick with barry on this and say you can buy the stock. stwt i'll be with barry let's go to scott in maryland. >> caller: jim, you are the smartest and most caring commentator on wall street >> if only i were. but thank you for that thank you. >> caller: amazon's major grocery supplier one year ago you said i had horse sense owning it. one year later, amazon is squeezing the suppliers on whole foods. now a new buyer, united foods. they sold at frye in february. bought again about 45,000 shares two weeks ago at it was. >> frankly, i was mystified by last quarter i couldn't believe they did that badly. it was really sad. so i can't go with it. i'm sorry.

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we own pioneer natural resources for the travel trust some would say it's time to ring the register on our position the acquisition. i think you would have to be an i had i don't the to sell here why? the best oil guest analyst there is, we know the total cost structure. and based on that, you can see how they would hold out. in the end, it is one of the most popular countries in the world and it it is more important. they are willing to cover all the payments for the shareholder base for many years to come. to keep it in%, the total cost for a battle of oil is less than $22 a barrel oil is at 80 compare that to the others we talk about occidental, warren buffett's

favorite mara marathon they pay out a ridiculous level of dividends even with a few years of did i have dent payments they're bidding with oil and with cash. i'm not sure the quality is as good when i read the piece about kicking the tires this weekend, i didn't like the way it was written at all it seems so fictional. seemingly crazy if i don't say so myself. it is a tremendous place to drill for oil. if exxon wants to build a business there, they would have to spend a foreign than they would just to acquire a good company. they want to pay more than $30 billion right at the top of the

natural gas market it's not like they have a history of making the best financial decisions. i think they remember that every minute i've always admitted that i like scott sheffield. he does what's best for the shareholders in this case it would be the west to hold out. 80 points from here. that is why i don't want to. i would be a worry about some some other guy over the 10% yield what is not to like about pxd? there is no doubt that we need the consolidation of oil pipes it costs too much to drill the drilling the next time pioneer pulls back by even a small amount, would say you should be boig it.

you can follow along with the investing. i don't think we'll be willing to pay for pioneer the fact that at the wan thank you. i am brian sullivan. tonight, why are american cities still so empty and the biggest risk to the recovery isn't just crime. call him the oracle of osaka. warren buffett wants to be big in japan. goodbye twitter and hello something called ask. elon musk hits at his grand ambition for everything app. >> used cars are at a battle for inflatta