move to be diversify from cystic fibrosis into other treatments >> moderna, we need to have you on for that. >> i think the stock's wrong >> okay. >> conoco phillips the s&p i think goes to 4200 >> "the exchange" is next. ♪ ♪ hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. welcome to "the exchange" today. are we at a turning point? the fed saying we don't expect to continue to raise rates every meeting. remarks follow this cooler than expected cpi print, which has boosted stock prices that's where we begin today. let's unpack what that report is telling us about inflation, up 5% last month, and 5.6% for the core if you are wondering, here is

where we have seen prices dropping energy down 3.5% groceries, the first drop since september of 2020. egg prices down almost 11%, although still up 36% from this time last year and shelter, up 0.6% last month, or about 8% from a year ago. futures turn sharply, but the dow up 210 at the highs. up 139 at the high right now the nasdaq has been up 8%, and now it's hanging on to the 10% gain yields in the dollar, also lower as investors see lower odds of a rate hike. you can see the two-year had gone below 3.9%, back up above 4. the dollar lower as well on pace for its fifth straight weekly loss and cnbc had reaction to the data from warren buffett as becky quick sat down with him

this morning in japan. >> we haven't changed our course in 58 years. these are one of my good businesses owned by people we like at a decent price and we'll keep doing that, and we'll keep buying treasury bills every monday and we haven't missed a monday yet. we keep all of our money short, we keep it in treasuries >> in the meantime, which stocks is he most excited about we'll dig into that later this hour but first, the latest on the odds of another rate hike. joining me is the chief u.s. economist at mastercard and steve liesman. great to have you both along for the ride steve, before the cp ireport, 70% odds over a rate hike. where are we now if >> 73% pretty much the same i'm really not that impressed. i have seen all this stuff about the cooling nflation i'm not buying it. i see that the headlines come down, but partly because of

energy and what's happened to energy in the past month it's gone the other way. there was a negative number on used car prices, but used car prices as far as i know have gone the other way so the thing is, the core, which is the one that the fed chair powell is watching, the year over year actually went up you had a 0.4 increase there so i'm not sure that the fed looks at this and sees look, we're entering an all-clear zone yeah, the headline was good, but we know why it went down it's good that food prices look to be under control. that's significant but if it's the core, and you're right to point out housing that is the one ace in the hole for the disinflationist. that if housing comes off, that will bring down the service part >> bacon, down 5%. health insurance, down 10% michelle, where are we seeing signs of disinflation, and where aren't we? >> to me, one of the most interesting things about the cpi

report this morning, which steve touched on, is the food at home, groceries, finally coming down if you look at other indications of what is to come, the cpi report, last month there was a meaningful pullback, that's huge that's really important for consumers that have been facing very high inflation as they walk into the grocery store every week they're now seeing some relief so i do think that's meaningful for consumer spending and purchasing power and consumer psychology, as well. >> michelle, where are we on the fed picture here the fact that we are now seeing higher odds of a rate hike is interesting. although she says there won't be a recession, we don't need to hike every meeting and her district was ground zero for the banking crisis >> i thought the comment from

austin and mary were quite similar in that they were talking about the need for patience, the need to be able to monitor the data, see how things are evolving, look at the high frequency data i think they're at a point where they are highly data dependant to me, the data is not just what they're seeing in terms of monthly jobs report or in terms of the monthly inflation numbers. they're trying to be forward looking, looking at flows of credit, trying to understand what comes next for the economy, making sure that they're not hiking too dramatically where it will create more problems for the economy than do good >> steve, when you hear these comments from mary and austin, maybe we're laying the ground work for a pause we're less than an hour away from the minutes, but i don't know how much that will tell us. >> i think there's a potential pause posse that's gathering up. i don't think they're ready yet

quite to say it's time to pause. what i'm listening for is where the default position is. now, daley today said we have more work to do. yet she went on to offer reasons why the fed might do more or might do get goolsby sounded like he would default on pausing and not doing more so i don't think we're quite there yet. like i said, they're gathering up, they're not necessarily together but there's a foundation being built for the fed to do this quarter point hike in may and then stop. goldman took away its forecast for a quarter point hike in june i don't think -- i think the market is ahead of itself. if you look at that chart up now, you can see a quarter point built in by the fall, a cut that is, and another, call it, i don't know 50 or so built in by

the end of the year. so that's too aggressive of where the market is. in terms of the fed gathering up to pause, i think there is a wing developing, and it's going to depend on the data. >> michelle, earlier, he said he watches the day-to-day credit card spending. he says march is flat to slightly down year on year so not falling off the table just yet can you add more context to that >> yeah, i think for march in particular, a number of factors to be mindful of when you look at consumer spending benefits expired at the beginning of the month, tax refunds are coming in weaker, so there's a lot of factors to understand where the trend is going forward. if you look at the last, you know, several months for consumer spending and for us focusing on our spending insight, the consumer is still

out there engaging, but they are making greater choices decisions on how they're shifting their budget. so we have seen a pullback on home improvement, these big ticket items, and we are still seeing spending at restaurants, in addition to lodging and other travel related things that are holding up strong. to me, the consumer trajectory rests very much on the labor market at the moment, the labor market is still holding in very well. >> all right steve, last word here. >> yeah. i'm really focused on this labor supply issue something we talked about yesterday, kelly, the idea that you get 800,000 people come into the workforce. i don't know if you have that chart in the backup services and wage inflation, what you see has happened is they're both starting to -- rollover is a strong word with what they're doing. if you think about a dog rolling over they're tilting and maybe

getting around to rolling over, but they're cresting together, both wage inflation and service inflation, or core service inflation, are kind of flattening out that's the key to what the fed does, which is, do we have the labor supply, does that limit the wage gain sns? if that dynamic can continue an deepen, maybe by the summer for fall, we can be in a position where the fed feels like it's competent and we're heading back towards target >> looks like a porpoise on that chart. >> exactly good one >> it was a good explanation thank you very much for your time today steve, we'll see you in an hour. michelle, always appreciate it let's get the results from the ten-year auction you can see yields popping somewhat rick, what happened? >> as you look at the intraday and see yields rise, that is the

tell, isn't it, kelly? i gave it a d-p plus. all the other metrics don't matter when you trail two basis points the market was at 343.5. the yield of 32 billion was 3.455. so it had a big tail pricing is the biggest issue with regard to what i grade on demand as you look at an intraday chart, you can see it. a two-day chart, that auction result pushes us higher. and earlier, we were lower than yesterday's low yield. for all practical purposes finally, the dollar indecision is giving you a big tell, as well look at that longer term chart it is slipping here we low some

key technical areas. >> is there a pause popping maybe forming, and are you surprised that the odds of a hike are still so high, 73% in the market for the next one? >> i think it's like -- it's like being on tnoah's ark and gambling whether the rain is going to keep falling or not the fed is closer to the end we can look at all the fed funds, all the fed futures, at the end of the day, the market is what investors are trading. the when i look at what yields have been doing, in my opinion, we have crested, and it's just a matter of, is it going to be may 3rd and we're done or are they going to stretch it out to mid june? in either case, to be at 5% or 5.25, i think investors have already weighed in

they think the worst is behind them and they don't want to miss the trade. because when it's all clear by the fed, it's going to be all cleared out of profits >> rick, thank you very much we appreciate it all right. let's turn back to the markets my next guest isn't surprised the tech stocks haven't been running out of steam and thinks the banks may be oversold. joining me now is steve oss, equity cio great to see you welcome. >> likewise, kelly >> so we have difficult head winds as the year carries on what would you say to people about the biggest opportunities in the markets now >> we're cautiously constructive, kelly. we have had this range between 4400 on the outside, 5% off of that here. we still think there's a chance to retest the summer lows, somewhere above 3600 so we're leaning into stocks,

trying to stay defensive, and picking off some value plays not buying the big run we had in tech that's based on an idea that we're heading into a banking crisis, a systemic, you know, economy-wide recession as a result the fed is going to hike and then dramatically cut. that's why people are running to the tech stocks, and we're not buying that. we're in the rocky landing group. i was part of the hike posse in the summer of 2021 we weren't being listened to at that time. i think the fed will not listen to the pause posse, either they're just going to do it. we're looking forward, not backward between the credit tightening we have had and the runoff in the commodity prices, the inflation numbers are coming off, kelly.

and we think the fed could be cutting later in the year not because they're worried about a crisis, but because inflation, by then, will be running considerably below fed funds >> the fed members are saying policies are already restrictive. steve, i do want to talk about which parts of the market you like best. michelle mentioned this a moment ago. what told you in the summer of '21 that the fed was running too loose and what tells you now that they're running too tight and what set of data should they be looking at instead? >> i'm very to date on what all the companies are saying the fed chairman was known for keeping in touch with what is going on with the economy. i'm not sure that goes on today.

if you were talking to companies in the summer of '21, it was obvious. wage pressures and heading into a significant inflationary problem. so i think the hike posse, i wasn't the only one. there were many of us calling for hikes. if you talk to the companies, you're seeing credit is contracting. supply chain problems are easing the drunken sailor is in the room, if you will. the tech companies have cut back they were driving wage prices higher against google last week, cut out friday afternoon massages and monday morning muffins that's taking pressure off of wages. so by the end of the year, it will be obvious to the feds that

they're past the worst on the inflation side >> if people want to know what is in steve's portfolio to weather this what is coming up, you have pfizer, ibm, pnc. and you've got footlocker. >> yeah, i got defensive about it it's like pfizer or a -- these are big, stable companies. a little bit of suspiscion on earnings for some. but the valuations are attractive and they have nice yields on 3%, 4%, 5% pnc has an almost 5% yield on it it's not bounced since the "banking crisis" that we had a few weeks ago. we don't see a second round of

this z so i say pnc is going to be solid. on the value side, we would be looking for some stocks to just, you know, they're 10% off right now. probably in the beginning, let's say ibm is trading at a third of the evaluation of other big tech companies. it's an underappreciated story it's 80% of its earnings are coming out of services we think they're on the right track here, finally, and probably will have a lot of upside here. and footlocker same way. we like the new ceo, she knows what she is doing. she's going to regenerate that brand. the stock is dirt cheap. it could be a double in the next 12 months. >> steve, great to have you on today. thanks so much

>> likewise, california. still to come, warren buffett calling this one of the best companies in the world? plus, laufs are up nearly five fold year on year. will this just turn out to be a white collar recession while the economy holds up better? after the break, we go live to south carolina. andrew joins us when "the exchange" returns. when covid hit, we had some challenges like a lot of businesses did. i heard about the payroll tax refund, it allowed us to keep the amount of people that we needed and the people that have been here taking care of us. see if your business may qualify. go to getrefunds.com. [office sounds]

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welcome back investors and business leaders convening in south carolina for this year's leadership summit. the two-day event and our own andrew is down there with two leaders in the world of sports and media. george pine and jay penske of penske media andrew, take it away >> reporter: it's great to see you and great to see george and jay here this is the second year you have done this. we sat here a year ago jay, you were under the covid weather at that time unfortunately. >> that's true >> the last time we worked together, though, we were talking on this show about sports valuations, and whether

they would continue at pace. i want to get us into where you think this is all headed they have all went up. just two hours ago, mark lazzeri was sitting in this chair and he is making the trade to get out it seemed like the suggestion was, he thinks they may go up, but maybe not at the rate they have before. >> i don't know, the phoenix suns had a $4 billion valuation. the denver broncos are $4.5 billion. i think the commanders, they will be north of $6 billion. again, at $6 billion, that's a healthy price. >> do you think -- the question, come back five years from now, he said we'll see whether the trade i made was a good trade or bad trade. >> there's no good answer for

that historically for 30 years, the answer has been yes. so we'll see you have some challenges with the regional sports networks impacting baseball and hockey and basketball to a degree, primarily baseball we'll have to see how that navigates. but a lot of these guys have long-term media deals, and there's a scarsty of assets. >> the media loves sports. how are you seeing the media landscape? we have been talking about chatgbt and what challenges that might create >> we have seen a ton of layoffs, we have seen the entertainment companies retrench a fwbit. with these lower costs, we will see a bit of a rise in media overall. we are sticking to the things that have worked, great brand, great journalists. >> the model is changing

for so all, most of the businesses you owned were an advertising play now they're moving to a subscriber play. is that a cyclical issue what do you think happened >> i think it's a fallacy that the media has to rely on one stream of revenue. what's worked for us is you have to be good at a lot of things, not just commerce or subscription or advertising or live events, it's all of them. if you do them all well, you have a good business otherwise, you're relying on someone else's revenue >> warren buffett in tokyo this morning -- >> what were his comments? >> i'm curious, your newsrooms, are they going to grow or shrink in your world, talk about live events, do they become the thing in an eage where everything els

is digital >> think about data and analytics in the day it's only going to accelerate the use of that. so i go on the offense, you're not going to be holding back, so embrace it >> my thoughts are, investigative reporting is here to stay for all of our brands. if you are doing things that are just pure information reporting, ai will be a threat. if we are just reproducing news, we're seeing the power of these systems be very disruptive so we need together thounghtful on how we engage in these groups and think long-term about our relationship with spreading our content around the internet. >> barry diller said you and your colleagues should sue everybody and do it quickly. >> sounds hike a strategy. >> how worried are you about the i.t.

it's an ip business, and if that ib can get scraped effectively and you don't get compencompens, what do you do >> you've got to commodityize. you've got the case study of technology -- >> a lot of people say over the years that technology has not really underserved folks, because then they'll say, you know, the horse and buggy turns into a car and things kept going. do you think in music that it worked or not? >> well, it worked for some parts, but the business was changed for good so what we are talking about walls commodityize, and if you are in the sports business, you have to manage that ip, but you need a manager to protect the value. >> i think you also saw in music

more consumption across more platforms. is there an opportunity to have a similar effect with ai i think there's opportunities, but this is disruptive we should have been paying attention to this two years ago. >> you own a dozen big media companies. you just bought vox. do they get combined or not is >> i think it's more than better, only better is better. the quality of the brands we are investing in, it was easy with vox. they have a great team, great journalists, great brands. the ceo that we trust, if there's an opportunity like that, you can count on us being quiztive in the future >> i want to thank both of us for being here we'll talk soon again. >> always the best >> back to you >> great comments about ai changing the media business and

sports valuations. andrew, thank you for joining us warren buffett just sold taiwan semi, one of the best companies. here's what he said was behind the move >> i think taiwan semi conductor is one of the best -- well, it's the best in that field and one of the best companies in the world. it's a fabulous enterprise but i do think that there is a danger there to some there's actually a danger of seismic action with where they are located, but that's a low probability. >> shares are lower today. on a new report questioning domestic expansion so much news >> i'm going to try to get there it in 60 seconds

the new report says that tmc, the largest contractor in the world, is considering slowing capacity in taiwan that news is causing the stock to drop slightly but a taiwanese economy minister has come out today denying that story, saying plans have not changed. given the chips company's recent march revenues, which fell 15% year of year, one analyst says any slowdown in cap x shouldn't come as any surprise research says worldwide shipment of computers dropped so recent sales figures shows that it's not immune to what is going on in the economy. and they have promised to invest $40 million in arizona with the hopes of getting crash from the $52 billion chips act, and is now seeking guidance, especially

the part about sharing excess profits. in other words, it wants the aid but may not be happy with the red tape >> it was fascinating, because buffet hinted at this company would be more attractive if it was a u.s. company the taiwan factor here is the most important, but also this company by itself, barring all of that, remaining one of the top destinations for capital in the world at this point. >> which is why it was so hard for berkshire to drop 86% of their holding there and within just a few months. normally, their strategy is holding stocks for decades to take a $4 billion stake and sell off 86% of it. we only fell out about that in february he said it has to do with possible geopolitics, but i wonder if there's more to it

>> he said this was my investment in the first place. thank you. still ahead, are we heading for a recession? a new report lays out that possibility. that's coming up as we head to break, look at the dow. salesfors leading the way today. the dow is up 179. "the exchange" is back after this

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hi, everybody. welcome back to "the exchange. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy has condemned the video that apparently shows the beheading of a ukrainian prisoner the security service of ukraine said the video showed "russian

occupiers torturing and killing a prisoner." nbc news has not been able to verify this allegation, and the kremlin has responded by calling the video horrifying u.s. forces have captured and isis operative in eastern syria. the operative was captured in a helicopter raid over the weekend. along with two other associates. the capture will disrupt isis' ability to plot and carry out attacks. and wind and solar generated a record amount of global power in 2022, according to a new report the analysis found that 12% of world power came from solar and wind last year researchers said the dramatic buildout of wind and solar was still not fast enough to fulfill all of the world's increasing electricity needs and stem the climate emergency. >> tyler, thank you so much. still ahead, the spring selling season may be going

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welcome back, everybody. mastercard's michelle myer told us earlier that spending is still stable and holding up. but corporate layoffs are high and growing. consumer credit is deteriorating, driven by higher spenders and big ticket purchases are slowing. what does it tell us is a white collar recession a thing? joining me now to discuss, anisha sherman i guess the question is, is this just an early sign of broader stress or can it stay contained to being a quote unquote quite collar downturn? >> unemployment is still really low. it's actually declined over the past year. when we look at wages of low-wage earnings across the states, nearly half of states have seen real increases

that is increases net of inflation. even despite this inflation environment and minimum wage versus precovid. so that level of consumer, that below median consumer, is more resilient right now. we're not seeing that, because they are still pressured by inflation. but as rates flatten and start to come off, perhaps going into next year, you should see that more resilient >> everything we're seeing is the opposite across slightly higher income, talking about the white collar, corporate employees where unemployment is increasing the derivatives going the wrong way, and the consumer credit trends look like they're going the wrong way, as well >> robert, what would you say about all that >> i love this research note, because it differentiated the white collar consumer from the wealthy consumer and this idea of a rich-session, which made

for some grade headlines but we're just not seeing it in the spending numbers there was a report of a blowout quarter. if you look at the fashion and leather goods, up 18%, twice what was expected. a lot of that was from china coming back, but a lot was the continued strength in the u.s. if you look at high-end cars, watches, jewelry, the art market, high-end real estate in new york city has doubled in march compared to january. so the spending by the high end remains very strong. it's that next-level down, the white collar, high-tech worker finance, that we will keep a closer eye on. >> that's where you are zeroing in on, as well i look at the knock-on effect. how much of the rest of the economy supports the spending of the middle to higher income consumers? how much of the service economy, the leisure economy, there is

some data on babysitting wages there is a cascading effect from the slowdown here. the same way they're spending disproportionately affects credit card delinquency rates, it will affect the broader economy at some point, won't it? >> i agree with that, but the rates we're seeing are still very low we're talking about less than a tenth of a percent so talking about single or double units of basis points of unemployment right now so yes, they are disproportionate spenders. they spend somewhere between 65% to 80% of each sector, depending on the sector. more so for discretionary sectors, entertainment, financial products in the 80% range. so they are driving spending, b maybe in some premium to slight

ly premium consumer products, travel, entertainment. and the secondary effect if we see this trend to continue to worsen is a knock-on effect of maybe the lower earnings of a result of a pullback >> robert, quick last word >> yeah, the cascade that we're seeing, kelly, is in taxes new york and california are the only states that just saw a decline in revenue that is largely not only because of the decline in capital gains, but because of withholdings. so that's where we are seeing a big, dramatic, and rather sudden impact on tax collections in california and new york. we'll see whether that gets worse. >> great point thanks to both of you. coming up, the latest read on mortgage rates and why hope could be springing in this housing season as we go to break, check out the airlines american is on pace for its

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welcome back mortgage applications on the rise last week, breeding some hope into the bring housing season diana has the latest numbers it's been, i would have to say, a little busier than feared. >> yeah. kelly, the cpi didn't help mortgage rates today as much as we might have thought when it was first released this morning. so bond yields plunged but bounced back the average rate on a 30-year fixed was 6.42%. down about ten basis points from yesterday. but still higher than last week when investors rushed into bonds after two employment reports suggested that the economy was weakening faster than expected

with lower rates last week, mortgage applications to buy a home rose 8% compared to the previous week. they were still 31% lower than the same time a year ago buyers have been up against higher home rates and higher places, and a limited supply of homes to sale. applications to refinance flat week to week, and 57% lower than the same week a year ago today's interest rates, there are few borrowers that can benefit from a refi. and one final note, rates are now not that much higher than they were at this time last year last summer, we were saying that they were twice what they were the year before. now they're one percentage point higher kelly? >> you know my obsession between the ten-year and the mortgage rate it seems like the banking turmoil has kept it higher than historically average >> part of that has to do with

quantitative tightening. that is the fed not buying mortgage backed bonds. they're doing that with treasuries, as well. they were a bigger share of mortgage market demand then you also have on top of that the concern over that and some selling of mbf, which doesn't go to the buyers, but when you have something going on in the market like, that it tends to widen the spread. >> for buyers, more relief and more activity as they came down to normal levels diana, thanks. still ahead, warren buffett making big bets on everything from energy to japanese trading houses should you follow in his footsteps? that's next. and oil popping, and now at levels not seen since november, over $83 a barrel. crude on base for its fourth weekly gain. if you want to talk about renewed pressure on inflation, this is one place to watch

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welcome back to the exchange legendary investor warren buffett talking about his biggest bets in an interview today on "squawk box."

including occidental petroleum saying that wouldn't be possible today. >> we brought 20% of the company that already the index own 25, 30%. we bought 20% of a company in a month or something like that. >> occidental? >> yes and we're doing other things, too. but now it's a different kind of market and we can't acquire the same -- of course buying an occidental or selling something else. >> joining me now is bill smead, big shareholder, too we don't talk about berkshire's performance lately but are you satisfied? >> yeah. it's a completely different kind of animal from what we normally own. we don't own as large a percentage of it in our portfolio as we used to, because to quote buffett, they're so

large that their opportunity set is much smaller and we're at 5 billion-ish. we have so many more opportunities to us that buffett might be interested in if he had a smaller pool of capital. >> what do you think he's talking about with his oxy acquisition? >> it's funny, because we -- we wrote a piece four or five weeks ago saying drilling for oil on the new york stock exchange and now we find out exxon is kicking the tires at pioneer and then there's chevron who offered to buy anadarko before oxy did. so wouldn't it be ironic if buffett had chevron by oxy and buffett ended up with over 20% of the much larger combined company, which is all very possible. >> you think he has designs perhaps on a larger stake of the energy business.

would you say that's one of the only big bets? he talked about how much he likes apple and taiwan semi, and things like that. >> yeah. his silence speaks volumes he is -- he is making his investment in the oil business hp he said overnight -- i watched the show this morning from 3:00 to 6:00 west coast time. and he said we're going to need the oil for a lot longer a lot longer and greg able would know more as the head of berkshire hathaway energy on how long and how profitable it will be. therefore, he's comfortable. it's hard for him to get money into oxy now because the casino effect that monger talked about a year, year and a half ago is gone >> obviously oxy is one of your big positions too you also have phillips do you think this administration would allow mega mergers in the

energy space to go forward and are they necessary for a -- from a capital return point of view >> well, for a set of administrations and the body politic ignoring the size and monopolies of the tech companie to come in and say somebody is too big in the energy space, that would be the height of hypocrisy. a much larger player is much more able to spread the cost of drilling over a much larger entity there isn't any question and then secondly, the truth is, if you want to make a fast transition to cleaner energy, you've got to get the price of oil and gas dramatically higher to make it less economic that's what drives investment and investment success in clean energy is for it to be economic. and it's not it's not economic.

it's a needle in a hay stack right now. >> you're saying the administration should let the merger go forward so it does raise the oil price and as a result they get what they want and the oil investors get what they want. i don't know if everybody is happy. >> we'll be happy at about $150 a barrel. >> fair enough quick final time, any partying thoughts before we head into bank earnings season what would your advice be as we navigate? >> we own j.p. morgan and bank of america and what we know is the banks that put themselves in a precarious position by buying longer term securities, which are now under water and in many cases have wiped out the equity of the weak sisters always ends up playing to the overcapitalized super strong banks like bank of america and j.p. morgan. so they would have taken in a lot of deposits, and what we

'waiting to see, we're waiting for the insiders to be buyers. it's one of our eight criteria, strong insider ownership with recent buyers. buffett is a strong owner we like to think of ourselves as a. we'd love to see the executives calling their brokers putting in orders that would tell us there's a timing circumstance. >> love that we'll watch that thank you for your time today. >> thank you. >> bill smead. that does it for "the exchange". let's get to the fed minutes we'll take a quick break "power lunch" picks up the coverage tyler is getting ready i'll join him on the other side of this quick break.

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mathisen after a big inflation report this morning we await fed minutes just seconds from now. about 18 seconds markets will -- are well off the highs of the day. >> dow off 150 points. nasdaq had been up 1%, gave up the gains. two year yield back over 4%. and the dollar is weaker let's get to steve liesman with the details from the fed minutes now and market reaction. >> minutes to the reserve meeting in march show that the staff shows the effects of the banking turmoil would likely lead to a mild recession later this year. saw the recovery in 2024 and 2025 the staff had previously seen the recession of a possible alternative to baseline forecasts now seems to have elevated that to the baseline forecast expecting inflation to step down markedly this year and slow sharply next year. we don'tsu