and instagram. >> you can get on the platform and amass hundreds of thousands of views i did it with reels, they're working on it but not as good. >> folks, go and make tiktok videos and find millions of vollers. thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts now. >> i'm scott wapner from post 9 at the new york stock exchange a lot of action. a big exclusive with warner brothers discovery's david zaslav rolling out its new streaming service and the make or mac hours begins with the markets and fed on a collision course one says enough is enough. the other says not so fast who will win stocks, it seems, aren't so sure your scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the dow led higher by industrials and materials, those

you can see it will be a fight to the finish. discretionary weak today questions swirl about the health of the consumer, tech lower, bond yields following following that inflation print and the fed minutes which showed staff predicting a mile recession following the banking turmoil of the past couple of months. leads us to our talk of the tape the road ahead with earnings only a couple of days away and the debate over interest rates only escalating. we'll ask schwab's kevin gord and cameron dawson of new edge in a moment what's in store. first let's bring in steve liesman on the new forecast from the fed. at least, steve, from fed staff, a baseline forecast, i might add, of a mild recession this feels like a pretty big change from where they were. >> yeah, and that's a change from where they were, scott. i get into that. what they saw, the meeting took place during these that flared up and the staff looked at those and put those into their model and said it was likely to lead

to a mild recession. they previously said it was a plausible alternative or a possible outcome but it wasn't the baseline in the previous minutes that we read they saw the economy, however, recovering over the next two years, '24 and '25 and they said inflation would step down markedly this year and inflation would slow sharply next year all of this, though, the outcome dependent on the severity of the banking stress out there as for the folks that matter, the officials at the meeting, they didn't appear to embrace the staff's concern as they hiked 25 basis points, as you'll remember and did see tighter credit conditions and jobs, growth and inflation and hike by 50 base dispoints and hiked by 25 instead and did discuss not hiking at all, but decided they had done enough to stabilize the banking system with their supervisory tools, most saw the economic risk to the downside, inflation risk to the upside

explaining probably why they hiked again. a lot of information from markets. the inflation report coming in more or less in line with expectation, a little better on the headline and a bunch of fed speakers and the minutes what happened? the market's view of the meeting unchanged with a 70% probability of a hike still built in to the futures market >> i just find this so interesting. that you have -- i don't know how many people on the fed staff. what, are we talking dozens, hundreds of economists. >> hundreds, hundreds. >> and the actual members, they -- we don't want to hear it we don't want to hear it that's the kind of message you got from barkin who was like, ah, cpi, whatever, there's more work to do core is still too holt he sure sounded like he was ready to do more >> i think that's right. i think -- by the way, i think daly probably did too. she said there's more work to

do the difference among fed officials is this, you have some more or less concerned or ready to factor in tighter credit conditions into their forecast now, in the staff at the fed seemed ready to do that, but the fed offices do not at this point in time and seem to be saying we might pass this without a big decline in credit conditions or lending to the economy and negative knock-on effect and ready to say, you know what, i got my supervisory and regulatory tools over here and monetary policy tools here and inflation problem, i'll keep hiking and despite the possible outcome here, i think it's interesting they did kind of look past that fed staff recession forecast >> so many scoff at that notion, steve, there are enough tools in this imaginary box that the fed allegedly has that they can deal with almost anything that comes its way.

if, you know, we can continue to fight inflation, we can hike interest rates until we determine that we've gone far enough and if anything else happens, almost the economy be damned, we'll just deal with it. if their own staff says their base case is for a recession and it doesn't move them in any meaningful way and maybe we won't find this out until a couple of weeks from now on may the 3rd, then what will? >> i don't think anything, scott. i think, you know, you could actually look at the fed's own numbers. we had diane on in the last segment talking about this, scott, and say the fed has already built in a mild recession and that's a part of how they expect to bring inflation under control is negative growth creates a whole lot of slack more than some potential growth does and what i mean by that if you're negative the economy is contrasting rather than 1% growth compared to 2% potential so that creates

a whole lot of slack if you look at some of their numbers, a 1% or percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, you could say some of them have baked in a recession, scott >> yeah, steve, thank you. thanks for sticking around for us too this felt like a bit of a game changer. what happened in those minutes i appreciate you breaking it down, so steve liesman says, well, the fed has all but priced in a rye session the question is has the stock market let's bring in kevin gordon and cameron dawson cameron, i'll turn to you first. is that priced in to the market right now of a mild recession? >> no, not at $220 a share in earnings trading at 18 1/2 times those earnings if we have a recession that 220 is too high. it likely looks like 200 or lower then we will likely want to put something more of a lower multiple on that initially just because you have the derisking that happens when you have uncertainty about future growth. term premium goes down

so i don't think that at this level the market is pricing in a recession. >> when you hear that coming out of the minutes today, and then you have fedspeak that says, we need to do more. we don't care. we're more concerned with inflation than we are in the economy and i think that's kind of the message and i felt like and mentioned it earlier, when sara eisen asked barkin that question whether you're now in the soft landing camp or still think you can get a soft landing, he said we're focused on getting inflation down. >> it speaks to what they're willing to sacrifice in order to get inflation down in their own forecast they have unemployment going all the way up from 3.5% today to 4.6% by the end of the year. that means that in theory if we take them for their word they would tolerate a lot of labor market weakness before they would even act to ease policy. so that tells you they think they still need to see a weaker labor market they still need to sea weaker

demand was the comment from barkin, less demand so watch retail sales closely before they even think about easing policy >> to me the market reaction, the price action from 2:00 forward was so telling, you see the market look like it was going to have a bit of a rally and started to rally i get it market thinks that, okay, the fed is not going -- who cares what they say? they won't be able to do anywhere close to where they suggest they might because the economy is going to be too weak. i go back to, okay, bad news might be bad news for this moment because if you think we're going into a recession and you don't like cameron think it's priced in where do you go >> i think that's the right way to think about it. relative will last year shifting away from inflation being front and center as a concern for the market and slowly moving towards the broader economy. even the retracement in yields kind of picked up after the initial drop from the cpi report but broadly over the past couple

of months, you started to see a reconnection in bond yields and stock prices, most notably when you move up the cap spectrum into megacap tech. that's more telling and something we think will last in a perpetuity if you have that reconnection and go into slower growth yields will fall for the wrong reasons and getting into a recession that probably puts more downward pressure on the stock market. >> if there's for downward pressure, because i've had a lot of different predicts this week alone, some who suggest, well, we're going back to the october lows, we're going to retest that it's just a matter of time for others to say we may have a pullback but not going that low. >> i think it depends on the part of the market you're looking at a lot of enthusiasm about how strong it's been but driven by a handful of stocks but if you kind of go one step below the surface and look at the sector level and another step at the industry level, look at the banking index, even the regional

and small index hasn't gotten a lift you kind of need that to work in conjunction with other cyclicals in order for the market to find its legs and keep going. deterioration and breadth has been a pretty strong tell that, you know, participation is just looked relatively anemic on the bread side but from an investor enthusiasm perspective you haven't seen they flows into equities and shifted mostly into the bond market. >> like jeremy seigel of the wharton school told me earlier, next three to six months are going to be tough for stocks he's still a long-term bull, no big shock but here's one of the most traditionally bulled up people you'll find at the beginning of the year said we can do 10% to 10% in the stock market even he has tempered his own expectations brian belski yesterday was suggesting, well, i still think we can do well but even my own expectations are not as enthusiastic as they were.

>> maybe they didn't count on getting halfway there over the course of one quarter and at the same time just like the fed staff said, there is likelihood that this banking issue ups the risk of having a recession at some point in '23 or '24 maybe you thought there was upside to earnings so valuations weren't so stretched start going the opposite direction where you think earnings have more downside risk and look at the under the surface in the back half of the year there is a huge earnings recovery already priced into that $220 a share. >> because you're not going to stay in an earnings recession forever, right the projections are you'll have three state quarters of negative earnings growth. >> correct. >> but you'll emerge from it. >> you eventually will but i think it's important to note what is driving this earnings recession. all margin, not the top line it is not going negative because the economy is not yet in a recession and the margin compression is just a function

of the giveback of the overearning and margin expansion that came when inflation was so hot and companies had such high pricing power and had margin expansion up to all-time highs and now starting to correct normal the question is do you have margin compression in a recession, the answer is, yes, so it could be more of a protracted earnings session simply because of that. >> speaking of earnings, kevin, friday, you know, gets real and then we're going to start hearing and learning what the numbers are and what the outlooks have to say. >> you could argue that friday is more important than even the data we got today. not least because it's a little lacked but given the nature of what has become a little bit of a banking crisis even it's by the fed i think a lot more of the important data will come from earnings not just from the banks but broadly across the market, you still have, i think, for this quarter, fourth quarter was different where revisions had been brought down at a pretty significant pace.

for this quarter it's been slower and our, you know, view you still need to see more revisions to the downside before you can kind of feel out where that trough is but i will say from an earnings perspective to have a little more of a bullish tilt for later in the year, the best zone for the stock market in terms of annualized performance is when earnings are down between 20% and 5% that's after ufb's gone through the significant contraction then you're moving back higher so if we're in an earnings recession you get to that scenario in the middle of the year maybe towards the back half and sort of finding your way to the trough and bouncing back, that would be a pretty bullish setup it would be consistent with this heavy washout you saw in sentiment metrics back at the october low so still have more earnings weakness to the down site, but i don't want to lose sight of the fact that it brings for better days maybe the latter half of the year, of the half of the year. >> are you optimistic or pessimistic about what we learn from the banks this week >> ooh a great question because we do

know there will be a big split between how the large banks will talk about the state of play versus the small banks but think the thing overall to watch is their forward guidance about credit and lending growth because that's the real tell about the impact to the broader economy is less about the deposit flows, yes, that's important for small bank stability but think it's the commentary they give us about how eager they are to pull back on lending growth. if that's the case, that's the mechanism at which we'll see this bank issue start to filter out through the broader economy so that's what we're watching closely. >> and retail sales too. i don't want to gloss over it. you got ppi ahead. retail sales, you worried about where the consumer is right now? >> i think the reliance on credit for the past year, i would worry about that because you've had this so-called excess savings cushion wither away. with the coming contraction we assume in credit putting the consumer on uneven footing in terms of a formal recession, prior recessions, some haven't

really been marked by significant weakness in the consumer i know that's been a big part of the recovery story and it's a big part of the economy but don't necessarily need to have the consumer fall off a cliff to go into a more formal recession and would consider that a mile recession if it's more investment driven, bisson investment driven. >> consumption is our -- >> lifeblood >> i get you kevin, thank you cameron, thank you, as well. thanks to steve too. our twitter question, where will the s&p be by the time the fed next meets and gives its decision above 4200, between 4000 and 4200 or below 4000 you head to @cnbcclosingbell and have results coming up we are just getting started and have a big interview coming up warner brothers discovery holding its big treeing event today unveiling a new max screaming service. we hear exclusively next from ceo david zaslav just after the

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uhhhhh... the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. the future starts now. warner brothers discovery announcing its max streaming service today combining content from hbo max and discovery plus. julia boorstin live in burbank for an exclusive interview with warner brothers discovery president and ceo david zaslav julia, it's all yours.

>> scott, thanks so much really appreciate it we're excited to be here on the warner brothers lot for the big announcement of max on may 23rd. the big headline is that it's going to cost $16 a month which is the same cost as hbo max even though this will have so much discovery content. you said so many times, david, you are focused on profitability. why does it make sense to charge the same amount and give more content? >> first we want a real lie seamless transition. we have a very significant business with hbo max right now with subscribers that love it paying $16 to provide more value to those subscribers and have a seamless transition, i think will be helpful to us in terms of, number one, secure, the strength and power that we have in the market right now in addition, one of the big issues with this business for everybody is churn and by increasing the amount of content

we have, content for kids, content for families, nonfiction content, food, home, the biggest motion picture and tv library, by putting that whole bouquet of content, we think the broadest array available that the churn will come down so it'll be a significant amount of economic gain for us, just by subscribers feeling more nourished, happier, less churn, more people in the family using it and that's the basis of a healthy subscription service. >> so in addition to that $16 ad-free version you will have a lower cost version with ads. do you have any plans to have a free ad supported version and how concerned are you about an overall ad contraction when there are more ad players in the works like netflix >> max starts off with a nice pace and $9.99 when you look at the marketplace, the traditional marketplace around the world, there are people that are willing to pay a fair amount of

money to get premium and have it be ad-free then there's people that are willing to pay less but they'll take -- they need to accept advertising which is like basic cable and a big population only want free and will never pay. it's important for us as the largest provider of content, biggest motion picture library in the world that we make our great content available to everyone so this was a big day for us with launching max on the 23rd, we will have a fantastic service at 16. we're also going to have the ad-lite at $9.99 and it'll be robust and started to offer channels with other providers but you will see a warner brothers tv that is free that will allow us to capture everyone we chi we have the greatest storytelling and content and want everyone to see it.

we think there is and a very amount of opportunity and growth to take advantage of what we have, fair amount of scale, a really high quality service, on both sides, discovery plus, discovery plus is very low churn and high -- people love it and hbo max, you know, if we add those two together we think we'll get better retention. >> we will stay tuned for detail on when we get the ad supported service but one thing notable, you talk about the breadth of the content but don't have live news and sports included this this new max service what are your plans in terms of sports will you be bidding for nba rights to include in max and what about live news will you include cnn in this >> well, first, this is really a fabulous entertainment full spectrum service so we're going to take this out, and we which we will do very well with it the good news is that the future has a lot of uncertainty for all of us and we're trying to figure

out exactly what a consumer wants and where do they want it. the fact that we're a leader with cnn, a global leader in news and the fact that we are a leader in sports where we have the nhl, we just finished with march madness, we have baseball playoffs, we will be carrying hockey to -- right through to the stanley cup and then we have the nba for another couple of years and hopefully for long term so that's artillery, you know, in a battle ultimately i think the best content wins and so the fact that we not only have this extraordinary amount of great entertainment content with max as we see what consumers want we could say, okay, and we've done it in europe and moved news in where people go more often and the number of markets we've put sports in. so we'll see over the next few months and we are building an attack strategy. you will see news and sports deployed to drive our overall streaming domestically and around the world because we have it and we're a leader and

because live news and sports is powerful. >> i have to ask about the comments that we heard today on cnbc on "qusquawk box." he doesn't like the streaming business and i have to point out disney has said undifferentiated entertainment is another area -- >> two great guys. >> warren buffett. and how do you avoid pitfalls of being undifferentiated or overall streaming challenges >> we are more differentiated than probable everybody. harry potter, all brands, the whole d.c. portfolio we have hanna-barbera, looney toons, "game of thrones," we have brand, food, home discovery and hbo itself, so when people want to navigate what we have, we're not a huge

morass of content. it's easy to curate which is important. you can curate through our characters and our brands, and you can curate through the content we love. we have content that people love everywhere in the world. to warren's point it's not an easy business and we're in the middle of a transition we've been dramatically moderating losses and last quarter we reduced them down to a loss of only 200 on our streaming business but we have a very big advantage. we have a huge library of content that's owned and paid for. tv library of content, traditional and we have our whole nonfix library, global library, we have ten channels of content we've been producing for 30 years in language all over the world. home, food, discovery, animal planet and of the content that people consume, 80% of people spend an awful lot of time with

nonfiction so we start with a cost base that's much lower and then we have all these brands that people love plus, we're disciplined. i was the first one with our leadership team that said, we want to be in the streaming business, but we're also the biggest maker of content we make a lot of money soing tv to other players we're also in the traditional media business, we're in the gaming business, and so for us, we're a content company, storytelling company this is a very big day for us with max and we believe that having a streaming service above the globe is critical and which is the final point that it's a more difficult business if you're playing really primarily in the u.s think about the value creation by the faang companies, that was created is because they were above the globe and built the product and were able to deliver it everywhere in the world in every language that's what we'll do we're just getting started and i think it will give us scale and

an opportunity to be a big business and have said we'll be break even in '24. and that we'll make a billion dollars in the overall segment of streaming by '25 so we feel good about it. >> scott >> david, great to have you on the program today. i so much appreciate that. you mentioned being a bit of a first and do feel in some respects you were a trailblazer, if you will, in this new movement of subs at any cost is not happening anymore. and others have sort of followed that mentality i guess my question is, is that a moment in time view because of the kind of economic cycle that we're in, or is that going to be a permanent thing or the next time we're in, you know, that next big upturn if it's going to be back to an arms race? >> well, look, i think that you and i have been around enough that we've seen cycles in the '90s it was clicks and eventually, well, we're a

valuable user and ultimately i'm a free cash flow guy i built discovery by driving free cash flow how much money are we really making we're creating content and driving ebitda and free cash flow in nine months last year we generated $3.5 billion of free cash flow. we're driving great stories. we want great talent we're not helping ourselves and helping shareholders and it was very clear, as you looked around the industry that they were chasing a phantom effectively and did something important last year we brought these two companies together and there was a lot of talk of synergy but that wasn't what we were fighting for. we were fighting to say, what is this company look like could have a chance to be really successful for the future? whether it's hbo, warner brothers television or traditional businesses, so all the changes that we made fighting to get all of our motion pictures back in the

theater where we can delight audiences, open those movies on main street but also make more money, because they're more valuable in the theater and they're more valuable on hbo max but we restructured our company. we made a lot of decisions, some may turn out to be wrong but that's in the past now now we're off and running. not just with max, we're on offense and we're a pure content company and we have all these tools because we have all this content that people love so i think going back to this idea of subscribers, you know, i'd rather have 100 million subscribers or 150 million and have it be profitable than try to stretch for some big number and in the end lose money. and the good news is, consumers show you what they love. we take a look at what people watch on max and we can see exactly what they like and exactly what they don't and some of the stuff they're not watching, we can put it on a

fast -- some of the stuff they're not watching can sell it to others, so we are relentlessly focused on creating great content and monetizing in every way possible >> could you ever see a day, david, where, you know, there's a return to some kind of bundle where, you know, all of you and your competitors you sort of throw up your hands and say maybe we're together than each one of us doing our separate thing and maybe through, i don't know what distribution method we're talking about here obviously, but you come together with however many of you all and you offer, i don't know, 50 bucks a month and you get five different streaming services is that such a far off thought >> well, look, ultimately we have to create an environment as an industry that's easy for

consumers. and imagine a world 25 years ago where you needed to subscribe to abc, nbc, you needed to subscribe independently to different channels and people spend 11 minutes on average trying to figure out where the show they want to watch is so ultimately consumers have already started to do it what are the app offerings that i love and many put us at number one in quality. and there's a lot of greats out there and for each person they're aggregating but it's still awkward and eventually will see a recongregation that will be healthy and as warren said some can't make it. how long can you lose billions >> the question there, do you think there needs to be more consolidation among the streaming players? do you think now as this combined service you're big enough to compete with the likes of, say, a disney, hulu or netflix and how do you spongd to

the fact that just last week four democratic lawmakers said they want this deal, the warner brothers discovery merged company to be re-examined by the d.o.d. are you too big or are you big enough >> well, i think what we demonstrated today is we're pro-consumer how do we provide as much great content as we can and make it available to consumerness multiple ways? if people want to just have the discovery plus content, food, home, discovery, animal planet they can continue to do that so our focus is very pro-consumer i think there will be consolidation but it could happen in a number of ways, one, it could happen the way scottie just said which is that there isn't a consolidation of ownership, but there's a consolidation through a package. that package could come through a number of us content owners over the next couple of years coming together or in some ways amazon is doing it right now, amazon, roku, apple, they're having their own chase they recognize, tim recognizes

it, andy jassy does it's a bit of a chaotic environment when you make a better creation for consumers, it's value added. if you have a diversified media company that can generate free cash flow and you have great brands that people and content people love everywhere in the world so i like our chances and like our hand and it's a bit of a chaotic time but everything is possible right now. >> ell, certainly a lot of big news today and i know you'll have more news coming around sports and news piece of your business and also should note you've been in a quiet period so haven't been able to give specific numbers but we'll learn more about your earnings. >> in a couple of weeks. >> david zaslav, scott, back over to you. >> julia, thanks and our thanks to david zaslav as well on "closing bell." the cooler than expected cpi

print sending bond yield lowers so how might inflation impact the fed's next move? we're back after this on "closing bell. how do we show strength and stability? (eagle call) a mountain? a tree weathering a storm? (thunder) lions? nope.

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bond yields lower with the market focused on a possible policy pivot by the fed. our next guest, though, believes sticky inflation may get in the way. joining me jpmorgan head of market strategy for alternative fixed income welcome. good to have you no pivot >> pivot stands for pretty insane values on treasuries. how rates are reacting given that i think that the fed's hands are going to be tied here to deliver the cuts and oil is moving back up and major component driving inflation lower not just last month but

year to date >> their various fed speakers said core is too high. we'll keep going, whether you believe us or not and the markets are like, whatever >> i think what the fed said is every day there's not a banking crisis is a day that rates are too low and in the absence of a banking crisis or turmoil they would move higher setting the target higher so how long does that last? i think that as we continue to progress through this year and we continue to see how entrenched this inflation is because getting from 8 to 5 is i think has been a lot easier than it will be to get from 5 to 2. >> more sticky. >> more sticky we're seeing it stick in poor services which is a significant portion and the thing driving it lower has been energy and oil prices as well as used cars which are also somewhat

volatile as we continue to go through the year, as long as inflation remains meaningfully above the fed's target which let's remember is 2% i think the fed's hands will be tied to deliver the kind of cuts priced in and, you know, as investors we should remember that as goes inflation see goes the correlation between bonds and stocks which is kind of the founding, right, cornerstone on which portfolios are built, that 60/40 -- >> that was like thrown out of whack last year as you know. before i let you go the best play within fixed income in your world is what? >> so right now our overarching advice is preserve optionality you've never been paid more to essentially maintain liquidity in the portfolio while attacking opportunities as they evolve the banking turmoil is one of the many unpleasant surprises we're going to encounter as we continue to go through the effects of this fed hiking

policy because, yes, they're hiking closer to the end than beginning. >> sounds like you're making the case for cash. >> we are just starting to see the effects of this hike in policy and so there's going to be certainly a widening of credit spreads that investors will be able to take advantage of and so what we've done and we're on an opportunistic discipline attack opportunities where they have been bank paper selectisticly in shores and investment grade floating paper which moved out very meaningfully on the stress in the banking sector last month so definitely things to do but investors should absolutely preserve optionality because this is the year that credit punch is delivered to portfolios. >> it's great to see you all right. that's oksana aronov up next the biggest movers into the close kristina partsinevelos is standing by with that. kristina >> shares of cirrus logic down as they plan to use high-tech

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iphone 15 models won't utilize solid state buttons so cirrus provides features which is essentially a touch surface, not those buttons you actually have to press down hard and apple had -- it used cirrus as a supplier but according to the report we've seen unresolved technical issues due to the analysts, sticking to the traditional method we'll simplify and we haven't heard back from apple but as we head into the close cirrus on pace for its worst day, apple mere change >> it's the last chance to bweig in now where will the s&p be at the next fed meeting next decision day on may 3rd above 4200, between 4000 and 4200 or below 4000 head to @cnbcclosingbell with results after this break

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the results now of our twitter question, we asked where will the s&p be at the time of the next fed decision? 41% of you said below 4000 but it was reasonably close too between 4000 and 42. picks up second place. dan ives getting more bullish on microsoft. is that possible we'll find out he'll explain what he sees as the big driver when we take you inside the market zone or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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>> announcer: the market zone, no account minimums. we're now in the closing bell market zone chris farrone takes more on and bob pisani breaking down the crucial moments heading into the close. a little bit of selling as we inch towards the exit as well, chris, i begin with you. are we vulnerable right here, or mott >> i think we are, listen, this is the second time we're back in the 4100/4150 range. leadership is much more tepid. you see it with discretionary staples are smaller. small caps at multiyear versus

large caps and for all the talk about the banking crisis, why can't the banks rally? i knew two-year yields were down 200 bips and copper is weak relative to gold that sounds like the slowdown. >> even with technology leading accentuates and too top heavy? >> it's like does tech or is tech almost fulfilling the role of the consumer staples or the utilities. >> i think there's something to that. >> i think this move to the top of the market is it apple or the bank of cupertino? if we're taking our money out of first republic and going somewhere else, tech has been it and the view is it's a panacea for the market i'm not convinced of that. when we look historically, the easing part of the cycle not great for stocks, the pause you can rally, but the easing part not great. >> you know which think will

disagree, that guy sitting right to your left. >> he very well may. >> dan ives of webbush -- wedbush. >> enterprise checks have improved from what we saw in january. you look at apple. things improve from what we saw in january my view going into tech earnings season, slight beats and i think a lot -- many are on the wrong side of that trade and tech continues to have a green light. let's just say, okay, maybe the degree of the growth declines in key areas for argument let's say cloud maybe that stabilized but it's still depressed from where it was is that fair >> yeah, i mean it's definitely not roses and champagne in terms of our checks on the enterprise

but what's discernible we've seen improvement the last 45 days and i think that bodes well going into the rest of the year, which, in my opinion, is why tech still has another 10, 15% upside. >> you mentioned it goes from 315 from 290 share gains versus aws from amazon obviously are front and center this quarter. what do you think the result is going to be and, by the way, andy jassy will be on tomorrow and you will hear from what amazon thinks is happening but what are you talking about here? >> it's footsteps from what dell is doing in redman gaining share in enterprise backyard and seeing street fights out there but i think ultimately who is the winner is microsoft and they're doubling down. right now nadella and microsoft are on the offense and a lot are on the defensive side and further flexing muscles between

chatgpt and cloud. >> okay. appreciate that. thank you for being here bob pisani, i turn to you as we head towards the two-minute warning. weakening after an issue i guess you want to call it pop following the minutes, as i said earlier, the market thinks this only means the fed will pause or cut and now it's maybe facing the reality of a slowdown. >> a lot of people want to blame the selloff on the fed minutes, 24 or so, the french bank president made comments at that time and said inflation is more broadly based than we thought, it's still too strong, too sticky the ecb may have to continue to hike that's not helpful for the markets overall but the fed minutes is norm agoly a snooze fest the banking crisis will preaccept tate a mild recession, that's the staff -- >> that's base case now. >> that's new and secondly, not anticipating cutting rates later this year so immediately they're

undermining the goldilocks scenario you know this. if we had even mild recession, any kind of recession earnings normally, 10% to 20%, multiples can con contract 20%, and that's a mild case. we're not near that. >> in other words, earnings that are at, let's say, 220-ish, go town to 200 -- >> or 190. >> that's why i ask those who come on "halftime. is a mild recession priced into the market no. >> you're at 3200. suppose you get down 10% and get 20% contraction of multiples you're down in the low 3000. we're at 4100 right now. >> think about the balancing act between differentiating between a mild recession and something else

2000, 2001, 2002 was a mild recession. '9 '90/'91 was deeper >> thanks. the dow is about a 50-point or so loser and take it up in "overtime" with morgan >> session lows. that's the score compared on wall street but welcome to "closing bell: overtime. coming up on today's show, $160 billion of advice and talk to bain capital co-managing partner john connaughton plus, we'll game out the fed's next move following the inflation and release of fed minutes joined by former dallas fed president richard fisher. >> now let's get right to the market action with our panel