databricks or as a stripe, the ceos and ctos are starting to have conversations about, what if we got together so that process, as john said, it's rolling >> all right, in the meantime, all the major averages did reverse course to end the day lower. we get ppi tomorrow, we also get delta and fastenal earnings. that's all for us here at "overtime." >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," cracks in the consumer. new data from bank of america showing spending rising at the slowest clip in more than two years. does that mean the post-pandemic shopping spree is about to end we'll ask a man who owns 600 restaurants and six casinos what he thinks. andriy's chairman tilman fertitta is with us. delta reporting tomorrow is now the time to delay your entry into the sector? and later, one of our

traders says this chart is ready to break out i'm melissa lee. this is "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq market site. a full house here tonight. we're ready to go. we start off with the major warning out of the federal reserve. the minutes from the march meeting showing staffers believe the banking crisis would likely lead to a recession this year, yet the committee raised rates anyway let's get more from steve leesman, who joins us now. steve? >> yeah, melissa an interesting development, staff forecasters at the fed saw the banking stresses, remember, they flared up just around the time of the fed's march meeting and they saw them likely to lead to recession they previously said a recession was a possible or plausible outcome, but it was not their baseline at the time, in the prior meeting. here's what else they said they said inflation would step down markedly this year and inflation would slow sharply next year, and outcomes depend, of course, on the severity of the banking stresses that were out there.

as for the actual officials at the meeting, they didn't appear to embrace the staff's concern or the staff concerns were not enough to keep them from hiking by 25 basis points they did see the bank failures leading to tighter credit conditions, and also like little to weigh on jobs growth and inflation. here's what else they said some would have hiked by 50, if not for the banking problems m and they also didn't raise their forecast for rate hikes for the year like they otherwise might have they discussed not hiking at all, but they decided to rely on their supervisery tools to handle problems at the banks most saw economic risk to the downside, inflation risk to the upside they also forecasted they would probably hike again. after the inflation report today, we had several speakers, as well, and those minutes, as well markets view of what the fed's going to do in may ended up pretty much unchanged with a 70% to 75% likelihood of a rate hike, melissa. >> the possibility is that the fed officials heard what the

staff said and, you know what, a mild recession is fine with us, we're willing to take that chance, and i think, you know -- >> yeah. >> in terms of what they do for the next meeting, i don't know if that's going to change, but i'm wondering if the notion of a pivot, of an actual cut moves up, because of this development. >> you know, that's a great question i want to answer the first part of what you said there, which is that it could be that fed officials, many fed officials already have a recession built until in the following sense some are seeing one percentage point increase in unemployment that is usually accompanied by a recession. and some see growth, you know, as low as 0.4%, so that kind of low growth, well, if it was a little bit worse than that, it would be on the negative side, so, you're right they may already be embracing a recession. we have done some work, melissa, trying to study or think about what the fed reaction would be to a recession, and most think it will stop the fed from hiking, but most don't think it will cause the fed to reverse course and cut rates maybe pause, but not necessarily

cut, depending upon the level of inflation. >> all right, steve, thank you steve joining us from washington looks like an airport. it is an airport, actually so, what do we make of this development? the markets took it in stride, or the markets think that a recession equals a cut, equals a pivot. what do you think? >> once again you are in my head as you tend to be at 5:00 each night, because that's the question you know, if they acknowledge that this bank failure is going to lead to recession, yet hike anyway, you have to say to yourself, that's the outcome that they want clearly, that's a desired outcome. so, i guess in that regard, the move lower midday, when the markets started to turn around, made some sense. yeah, the markets shrugged it off. things were looking good 5% was a tad better than we were looking for, but i don't think their job is done yet. i think that's what the market came to the realization about halfway through.

>> karen >> i thought your question was a good one i'm thinking mild recession, i would think, is a home run for the fed. if you look at the task before them to go from 0 to trying to get to something normal in the midst of an inflationary bubble and to come out with only a mild recession after this pandemic bust then boom like we've never seen >> plus banking turmoil. >> i would think of that as a win and powell would be a hero, i think. that's not a bad outcome at all for them, if they can manufacture that >> i think they were too nervous about spooking -- if they skipped and they pause right now, that would mean to us that the banking issue is worse than we thought it was. so, i think they're too nervous about that why they're not talking about qt -- qt is happening in the background it's 25 basis points probably a reaction within the market the financial crisis probably another 25 that's 50. they're already raising. why on earth are they going to continue to press until something else breaks, something

already broke. i think they're asleep at the switch once again. >> yeah, it's interesting, when that data came out this morning at 8:30, if you look at the two-year yield, it went from 407 to 387 guy, you talk about this all the time i mean, that move was kind of astounding and then equities were ripping, right, in the premarket, and then what we saw is that yields came back up and equities came in and i'm just looking at all that bond market volatility, we've been talking about the spread between the move index and the vics, it's pinned here it seems so odd. and now the move coming in, despite what i just talked about, that intraday move, i feel like we're going to get away from the fed. we get it. they are going to do 25, maybe they're not going to, it doesn't really matter. they're not going to go up that meaningfully from here, okay it really then comes to, when does that pivot happen, when does the market start pricing in lower rates? but for what reason, right, just kind of putting this whole thing together and again, if it is the best case scenario they have a slight recession, i think we're going

to be so focused in the next few weeksearnings, i don't think it's going to be particularly good so, i think we're probably going to get off of the fed really soon and then we're going to get focused on what companies are saying what sort of visibility that they have, and what sort of consumer, you know, degradation we've seen with this rate move, that's going to take -- >> they're also, to melissa's point, they're also factoring in 100 basis points of cuts a year from now so they're going -- and they're not -- it would be great if we were just talking about this next meeting they're talking about raising now into the summer, and then, so, how fast is that cut have to really happen, the 100 basis points that's going to spook the market in my opinion. versus help the market >> because things are so bad, they have to cut that much >> exactly that much of a drop, 100 basis points, that quickly, just doesn't -- >> i feel like the muscle memory of rate cuts equals good things for the market is still imbedded

in investors i think that is still the reaction, the twitch, that happens when we get a whiff of the fed may pivot. >> the market might believe that i don't think the fed officials have said that at all. i mean, six months ago, they were talking about, whether you like it or not -- again, i'm paraphrasing, but it's higher for longer, and longer means exactly that i think they're going to get the rate to where they want it to be and i think it's going to remain there. unemployment in this country is 3.5% of actually ticked lower last stch time it makes no sense to lower rates. nothing has -- nothing suggests that they should be cutting rates right now. >> unless the banking turmoil is not contained. >> the banking -- never do this. the banking turmoil was created by their -- the duration risk that these bankers failed to acknowledge was created by all this -- everything going on with the federal reserve. so, that's not on the economy, that's on people who just

understand duration risk so, it's on them and the bank stress test that everybody champions, they -- silicon valley bank would have passed that stress test. so, it's an entirely different conversation, i think. >> well, i don't think that the duration risk fiasco that's happened at banks is at all on the fed. i mean, the felt, it's not like -- >> he says it's on the banks >> okay. >> it's on the banks not act knowledging or realizing what's going on, but you know, federal reserve had rates artificially low for 13 years people got desensitized to what could happen, so i guess -- yeah, you can blame the people, but the fed created that environment for that to happen >> it's not like they didn't give warnings. >> again and again and again >> we're going to raise rates. >> but back to the stock market, think about the rallies that we saw in 2022. they were all predicated on the potential for a pivot. so, like, the market participants were kind of waiting, to your point, about the muscle memory, waiting for

them to say, ah, we got to two and a quarter, we're going to pivot, slow down and so, that's the thing if you think about where the market has come off of those lows in october, we've come a long way, when you look at the rallies. and a lot of the patterns we've seen, the rallies into earnings season that go in a little bit and we come off and make new lows each time to me, i think higher for longer really does stick around, and then we have a weakening economy confirmed by some of the biggest companies in our economy, then i think that the stock market right here is entirely too expensive. you think about it, i think, what's the average trailing over the last ten years, i think it's at like 18 1/2 that's basically where we are right now. >> did you see kre today, down more than a percent? i don't know banking turmoil contained -- >> i don't -- >> warren buffett, you watched the interview this morning he thinks there's another shoe to drop. karen's been saying it for awhile >> those stocks don't trade that way for not a reason

we got a market flash we have to go to. steve? >> yeah, melissa, the financial times is reporting that soft bank is making moves now to sell most of its shares in ali baba that's sending shares down about 4% right now they look tesed at some filings soft bank has sold 7 billion so far this year of their stake and the goal is to get down to just about a 3.8% stake in the entire company. we've reached out to both companies for comment and i'll be back if we get more >> all right, steve, thank you steve kovach what do we make of this news karen? >> i don't know what to make of it i've been so afraid of ali baba since i owned it and sold it down a lot i don't know, i feel like -- day-to-day, you just don't know what the environment is going to be this is obviously a different thing, soft bank than the government, but i'm not there. >> i mean, they've been telegraphing this, and i think when you think about what warren buffett said this morning is

interesting. so, he sold out of that taiwan semi position. he's selling out -- >> and he did it quickly >> and he sold out of boyd and he's talking about japanese stocks and the opportunities there, so maybe there is an interesting inflection point as it relates to investing in asia. >> let's get back to the economy. the cpa data and the fed minutes. let's bring in dennis lockhart great to have you with us. >> thank you, melissa. >> what do you make of the fed staff's prediction of a mild recession later this year and the fed's decision to go ahead and raise rates? do you think that it's an implicit acceptance that we will have a recession later this year >> well, first, let me explain, from my memory, the staff is somewhat independent of the governors and the presidents in putting forth what they think is going to happen, premised on appropriate policy so, it's not a fed position, per se i think the voting members of

the committee are perhaps a lot more important and they each have staffs behind them, at least the fed presidents do, who do modeling and have -- come to their own conclusions. so, i think it's one input about what the atmosphere in the fed is, as regards of recession later this year. having said that, i -- i noted it when i read the minutes a few minutes ago, that the staff is really predicting a recession later this year. i think it's important i think it also fields the overall sentiment that i read, and that is, they feel they have more work to do, and therefore, come may 3rd, they're probably going to increase by another 25 basis points >> what's your view, dennis, of the impact of what's going on, banking crisis, and the expected tightening of credit to come, and how that factors into the fed's decision

i mean, we've heard from many fed officials saying they believe that the banking turmoil is contained we heard it from a lot of people, but i'm wondering what your take on it is, as we watch the stocks continue to have a rough ride, i mean, there's no indication in how the stocks trade, at least, that things are over >> you know, i -- i think you have to be cautious on this question i don't think we're out of the woods, that the whole environment has settled back to something we call normal so -- you know, i think you have to continue to monitor the situation and who knows, something more could happen in terms of a bank failure or whatever so -- and -- first, i think that's the first point, it's uncertain that we're completely out of the woods and then, second point, i think, is that the committee seems to bepaying very, very close attention to the credit

contraction risk in the economy. but it's a little early to really assess it, and they said as much in the minutes >> dennis, how come we don't hear about qt being tightening how come we don't hear about the financial crisis being tightening isn't that enough? why does the fed have to do anything right now >> well, first of all, i think the tightening effect of qt on the real economy is more of about unknown than a known it's something that there have been a lot of staff papers written about and a lot of, you know, very serious economic studies to try to quantify it, but it really isn't a known, and it's a variable that the committee wants to put on the back burner and just proceed with so, i think the fact that we don't hear anything about qt is because it really is a background matter from the point

of view of policy. >> dennis, this is going to be a bit of a wonky question, i hope, though, it doesn't come off that way. the fed should have a balance sheet, and money supply, it all plays in, so, i think you and i both would agree, 9 trillion is the wrong number, but it should be, you know, probably greater than six where should it be, given this environment, and given -- on all those different things, because we're probably, in my opinion, 30% or so in excess. >> your estimate is pretty good, i think. the -- well, first, we're in a new era of ample reserves, not scarce reserves. prior to the 2008 financial crisis, we had a situation of very scarce reserves when i joined the fed in 2007, the balance sheet was $800 billion, you know, today it's almost 9 trillion. 6 trillion as a stopping point, and then letting natural growth

occur is a reasonable estimate, it seems to me they will feel their way along until it -- they feel the market is telling them that the appetite for reserves is at its bottom, and then they'll stop, but i think 6 trillion is a reasonable estimate, could be lower. >> dennis, it's always great to speak with you, thank you. >> thank you so much, melissa. >> dennis lockheart. i talked to mark zandi a couple weeks ago, and he said he believed that the coming credit tightening result of what's going on in the banking sector is the equivalent of two to three rate hikes of 25 basis points that has not been factored in yet. >> does that -- so they're done, is that what you're saying >> or keep going on ahead and then this is on top of it and they're overtightening >> right, well, he's right if he's right, then they do have

a little draft kind of cover to hide behind to wait and see for a couple months and see if that actually does happen >> it's interesting. small business, right, we talk about, there's a confidence reading this week and i think jeff dunlock tweeted it out that literally the index is plummeting, right?are seeing ino of small businesses -- small is a small word, small businesses employ maybe two-thirds of the people in america, right so, if their confidence in the economy, their confidence in the ability to access credit, the confidence in the banking system is shaken, that's going to work its way through our economy at the wrong time so, we talk about, you know, whether they're going to continue to push and raise and qt to steve's point, all this sort of stuff, i mean, it's likely -- the economy is going to shift below their feet before the fed has pivoted or paused or anything like that, and at that point, they're going to bebehind the eight-ball again so, as far as an investor is concerned, taking some stock of

valuations, taking some stock of this, you know, highly anticipated recession, whether it's a shallow one, whether it's long, if it's deep, whatever i just don't know. i don't think the valuations make a lot of sense here and oom ni'm not trying to soune a perma-bear at times, i have been instuckive on the opportunity to buy stocks i just don't think, given the uncertainty we have right now, and where rates are, this is one of those good times. >> plus, the market is 20% higher than october. >> and just quickly, you sold microsoft. >> i did >> what? >> well, she browbeat me last night with all these good reasons to sell it and it was indefensible that i still owned it >> but the valuation -- >> the valuation at 30-plus times. coming up, trouble on the tarmac airline stocks getting grounded after a warning from one major car y carrier. delta reporting tomorrow, and we're trading that one next. and one retailer you can throw in your purse, or, your

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got a buzz kill on american airlines.

the stock seeing is worst drop since last june after the company issued disappointing guidance for the first quarter american sees earnings of just 1 to 5 cents a share the news sending other airline stocks lower delta reports before the bell tomorrow what happened? >> warren buffett talks about it all the time, they're uninvestable delta will probably surprise to the upside but i look at american airlines, approaching levels we haven't seen in 2 1/2, 3 years they've been in a sweet spot over the last year in terms of what they can charge people and capacity and those types of things with that said, i think you're looking for an opportunity again to trade delta i'm more inclined to be long delta into earnings on the back of this than short it, i'll say that >> i think it's a problem, because corp orate travel hasn' really changed a lot of people are still working remote so, there's no reason to have

that corporate travel back that means big ticket seats are not coming back. labor costs going up fuel costs going up. >> right karen? >> well, we were talking on the call today, what are, you know, the derivative trades from that, have the hotels run up so much they've had a huge run i don't own the airline space the reason tim says it's a trading vehicle. just too hard to gauge and they do have all that debt, though they did manage to refinance at decent rates. a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> glamorous gains lvmh surginging a china sees the retail rebound so, can this name keep trading in the lap of luxury plus, billionaire investor and houston rockets owner tillmanner if tee that joins us in just a few. his take on credit, the consumer, and how he's putting money to work. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq marketsit in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of luxury brand lvmh jumping after a sharp rise in sales driven by a strong rebound in china the company did note fashion and jewelry sales slowing down here in the united states steve, you said lvmh, very important, why >> it's very important, because everyone thought that china reopening was supposed to be taking hold and we got head faked a couple times this actually shows that somewhat they're coming back which means for energy and everything under the sun, this could be positive. >> karen >> yeah, so, they've cited in the past macau is gigantic, but

almost in every category, except for wine and spirits, it was a giant beat and the mix was good and, i mean -- there's a lot to love here it's not crazy expensive at 25 times for a collection of brands that is almost unrivaled, i ton don't know, i love the name, i'm long i wish i was long more there's one way to fix that, i suppose. i could go home long tomorrow, i suppose, more long tomorrow. but there's a lot to like here, and i don't know if we'll see all the consumers still ready to spend, right, we might see this big dichodichotomy, but the hig is out there they're ready to spend >> that's what's interesting i was going to mention the other side of the -- >> a lot of room in that head. >> look at walmart walmart closed at 149. very quietly, walmart's had a decent few months. i think 157 is the all-time high, spring of '21 or '22 and here we are. so -- the luxury side clearly

can do well, but when walmart starts ticking up like that, you got to take notice, because the people in the middle are going to get squeezed. >> i know you want to go to dan, but real quick, capri, as karen correctly pronounces it, has 30% leverage to china. same as lvmh >> how did it trade? >> nothing no effect. >> why >> i don't know. maybe we're the only smart ones at the table >> or -- >> not meaning these gentlemen they don't mean it, but we could be, you know, you look around, you say maybe i'm the stupidest guy in the room, because capri should have traded higher. >> interesting just say this, because i don't know that story, you know, i probably just drink the stuff and not -- >> not enough. >> not have it on my shoulder. but stock's at all-time highs. >> as it should be it's -- the growth is fantastic. >> i'm just saying this. if you weren't long it the way you've been long it and enjoy this thing, you're not really going to -- you wouldn't go out and establish a new long right here into this global recession we're all going to have right

now. >> well, if you go home long, it's like you bought it at the close, so, if i want to be bigger, i would have to buy some right here but i whauns you're saying you wouldn't build a full size position right here. >> all right >> what do you drink do they have stuff -- >> the bubbly, dude. >> oh, i like that that's from a song, by the way >> lvmh. >> oh, that's the mh >> and the ticker is mc, in france, so -- >> beautiful >> see, you learn on "fast money. the more you know. play that thing. >> the rainbow. all right, coming up, the lines draw themselves. one of our traders is channeling his inner chart master when it comes to oil. but first, tilman fertitta will join us next. his take on where the consumer stands and if he's still betting on a win for wynn resorts. that interview is just moments away don't go anywhere.

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benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. welcome back another check of the markets today. stocks closing lower despite this morning's cooler inflation data the s&p falling .04 and the nasdaq down nearly a percent but some software stocks bucking the trends new data on credit, debit cards

frommen baaing of america shows spending in march rose at its slowest pace in more than two years. is this the latest sign the consumer is slowing down let's ask our next guest til tilman fertitta. tilman, great to have you back on "fast money," nice to see you. >> hey, melissa, how have you been >> good, good, thanks for asking i'm wondering what you're seeing in terms of the consumer, if it has changed materially since the banking crisis about a month ago now. >> well, what happened was that everybody got all excited, because they looked at the year over year january and february, but everybody forgets that last january and february, we had another covid scare. and so, everybody did huge numbers this year compared to last year, but then it was just

flat-out over toward the end of february and in march, it was a disappointment now, was there some weather, definitely but it's definitely slowing down you can especially see it in the higher end, where people are just buying down a little bit. and the traffic is down a little bit, so -- we've all been waiting for this to come the last stimulus went out around march 1st, so, that money is not out there anymore and we all have to be honest with each other. we all had the greatest years we ever had in '21 and '22 and now we're going to see things start to normalize a little bit again and probably go backwards a little bit >> has what happened, though, in terms of silicon valley bank, signature, all the rest, tilman, has this sped up this normalization process? have you seen any change in the confidence of consumers in the past month or so >> yeah, i think all of that has something to do with it. and any time that -- we live

this every day, but to the average person, they -- they think that banks failed and in a sense, they did, even though it was a liquidity issue, that hay had to be bought, and it does scare people and all it takes is that happen a little bit, they see hire, slow down at their company o people get laid off at their company, and seeing inflation, not really changing when they go to the grocery store or go out to dinner. even though they said grocery prices finally stopped being raised last month. i think that it just has an effect on everybody. but more than anything, i think that the stimulus money's gone and when the stimulus money was gone, it was just free money out there for everybody and it was trillions of dollars and that's why our debt went up so much, but it was great for all of us consumer businesses for a few years. >> has anything changed for you in terms of how you do business and how you access capital

>> well, we're probably not as aggressive from an acquisition standpoint, just because of the cost of debt i think the mna world has definitely slowed down the acquisition of real estate is definitely slowing down there's so much real estate that's going to come up at banks this year that they're all getting a little bit nervous but the consumer's still there spending money, and the world's not falling off of a cliff we just have to remember, we had a roaring '21 and '22. >> tilman, it's karn, 's karen,o for being on what are you seeing in terms of wages and how sticky labor costs are you? >> well, we made such huge jumps in '21 and '22, and what it has done, and i read a story about it, and we had just talked about it, was that people that were a little older are getting back into the work force that had

semiretired or retired, because jobs that used to pay $10 and $12 an hour pay $20 an hour. and somebody is saying, maybe i don't mind working 20 hours a week for $20 an hour, part time at some kind of retail establishment. so, that's a positive that we seem to be getting some people back into the work force that were not in it at all. but it's definitely crazy from where it was, but at least it's starting to slow down a little bit now. we're not just fighting over employees everywhere now, everybody seems to have been caught up, and everybody is operating with less employees than they used to, so -- whether you're a retail company, a restaurant company, a marketing company, whatever you are, herb has learned to operate with less, but payrolls are the same or more because everybody costs so much more today

>> tilman, on october 31st, you bought almost 7 million shares of wynn, stock's doubled since then macao numbers have been great ever since, las vegas traffic is off the charts stay with that position? i mean, i still think there's runway what do you think? >> you know, i definitely feel like there's runway, because macao is just starting to come back, and i keep up with what everybody else is saying, and i think there's a lot of room still in wynn. i don't have any desire to unload it. i have a lot of faith in the company and, you know, let's just see what happens, but you know what? we could be sitting here in three months and i could say, boy, i let that one get away but i'm going to ride it out >> o, what do you see in terms of, you know, you've got gambling bricks and mortar gambling, but tilman, i believe you are the largest shareholder in draft kings what are you seeing there, that stock has sort of traded sideways for the past year or

so, so what do you anticipate? is there a catalyst there on the horizon? >> well, i think what's happened is is that everybody stopped this free spending everywhere. i think bet mgm, caesars, draft kings, you know, all the huge players, i think you're going to see profitability sooner than we all thought we were going to see it, because they were losing so much money i wouldn't be surprised if all of them are making money by the fourth quarter of this year. so, i'm excited, you know, i love owning all the draft kings that i own i'm very high on it, just like i like being one of the largest shareholders of wynn i'm very high on it, so -- i guess i'm hot into the gaming stocks right now >> does them making money in the fourth quarter of this year, does that mean that you don't see a recession? or do you see a recession, people are going to game through

it i'm just wondering, you must have a very good view of where we are heading right now >> well, you know, it's kind of funny what you said, but you know, if we might go into a recession, why would online gaming stocks do well, because people are going to be sitting on their couch and it's very easy to make a sports bet or make an online bet in the few states that it's available, and just like during covid, when people were sitting at home, that's when these companies really did well. so, for -- i don't think they're like other companies i think that they can plow right through a recession, where the bricks and mortar, like my golden nuggets, or the wynn, could struggle a little bit with the consumer, but the entertainment dollar of gaming always seems to be one of the last ones not to get spent >> i got two more questions for you you tilman in terms of forecasting, are you

baking in a recession, is that what you see, based on what the fed is doing, based on what we've gone through with the banking crisis >> i'm not baking in a recession. what i'm doing, though, is that we watch everything extremely closely, and we're not spending the -- the new cap x or new acquisitions or new building quite as quick as we might do it i'm watching projects. i don't think you go do a major project when interest rates are still ticking up and -- we really don't know what the fed is going to do they might pause and then six months later, raise it another half a point we have no idea, because there's such a lag, and they had such a huge lag in starting this, and i think they might have a huge lag in slowing it down and when people talk about them lowering rates by the end of this year, that's just ludicrous

to me, unless we go into a deep recession, and that's one thing we don't want to happen, is to go into a deep recession remember, we just started raising rates 18 months ago. time flies >> so, you're watching everything, are you watching the washington commanders? are you going to make a bid for this franchise >> you know, i'll be flat-out honest, i made a bid on the washington commanders for $5.6 billion. that's the value that forbes had them at, and at some point, you have to draw a line in the sand on everything. and that's where we are. if they can get somebody to pay them more than that, good luck to them. that's all i can say i own a franchise, so i love them selling for a lot, but at some point, i don't think $6 billion is the right number. >> well, you know, though, tilmannen, the funny thing is, you can sort of wipe it and then draw another line, so, line in the sand isn't really a hard

line and there's a lot of leeway between 5.6 and 6 billion. >> you know what everybody that's watched me do business for the last 40 years knows when i draw a line in the sand, i'm done >> all right >> so, i'm here, you know i can close, and that's the way it is. >> okay. tilman, great to see, thank you. >> thanks, guys. >> tilman fertitta >> i'm shocked she ed he didn'ty he's going to raise his bid. >> he's a tremendous owner washington would be 100% lucky to have him, but he said -- think about the value -- we laughed a couple years ago when golden state warriors, i think -- >> what the -- >> the clippers. the clippers >> the clippers, it was. and now, i mean, that looks like genius, so -- only so many a vanity purchase, some might say. >> coming up, the most

interesting chart in the markets? find out what one of our traders thinks of energy here. their thoughts and trades next. and later, feeling maxed out when it comes to streaming services the details on the newest entrants to the market and why it has warner brothers dropping today. more "fast money" in two car designers can shape a piece of clay into a piece of art... so why don't they? at nissan, things are different. they design cars that look like swords... (engine accelerates) gladiators... the future... ♪ or... wow. nissan knows what thrill looks like. because they design it into every car they make. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this.

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welcome back to "fast money. crude oil cruises higher today with prices hitting their highest levels since november and it's approaching a level that caught dan's eye, so, dan, why is this the most interesting chart in the market? >> well, because it's a bit of a conundrum, right i talk to guy every day, as you do, it's kind of -- it's a challenging proposition here a little bit but guy's had this thesis that we can still have a recession, okay, but oil can continue to work for a whole host of reasons, i'll let him speak to that and then i was talking to our friend cbw, and -- but i'm like looking at this crude chart and i hadn't drawn any lines yet and carter says the lines draw themselves i saw two lines. i saw a horizontal red line from the december highs, which is almost exactly to the penny, as he also likes to say, of where crude is trading right now, and then also, meeting its 200-day

move, average. and i'm saying to myself, if you look at this thing right here, it's either going to do, it's going to -- >> party >> it's going to party, or it's going to get rejected right here i think it's a really interesting chart when you consider all the other things that are going on in the markets and all the other things that are head winds to potential growth at a time when we are really focused on inflation. >> it's all supply/demand. you have russia cutting back on supply, china coming back on, the u.s. has to refill the spr at some point. so, you have all those tailwinds. last year was a negative year for the commodity. this year looks like it's going to be a trade range, up to 100 >> yeah. when it was $110, it went to $65, but here we are, you know, low 80s and it does feel like it's about to party. technicians will say this is where it should stall and fail let's see. but it does come down to supply and demand i'm glad dan pointed that out.

crude oil can go higher in a recession. home builders are going higher in a slowdown. these things are not mutually exclusive. >> prices can go higher in a recession. >> bang. >> and that's one of the worst recessions you can have. one options trading is better exxonmobil's run off its lows brian has stutland has the action >> we did see some activity in exxonmobil numbers coming out in cushing, oklahoma so, an option trader came in today, i'm bullish on oil. exxonmobil is one of those names to participate in. if i wet were to drop they sold, a trader willing to be put to exxonmobil if it were to fall between 114. these are options expiring this friday this is a unique way to pay the options where you're going to collect some premium if you are willing to own this stock. look at the charts there, exxonmobil trading almost at

all-time highs, basically saying, maybe we won't get through this 116 mark quite yet. this is a stock i own. i like it. and this is kind of an interesting trade to say, hey, 114 is a level i'm willing to own. >> brian, thank you. be sure to tune into the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, what is up with warner brothers discovery stock. why the company's new streaming service seemed to get a big thumbs down from investor. stick around much more "fast money" in two.

welcome back to "fast money. shares of warner brothers discovery glitching today, after the company detailed its new streaming service called max the platform -- why is that funny? >> sorry >> combines hbo max and discovery plus into one flagship service. the ceo says it will better stand up to its competitors. he spoke to julia boorstin earlier this afternoon >> by putting that whole bouquet of content, we think the broadest array of content available, that the churn will come down. so, it will be a significant amount of economic gain for us >> so, do we see momentum for

max? did he say bouquet of content? did i hear that right? >> yeah. >> i heard bouquet >> well, that can be an aggregation of flowers, but it can also be a bouquet. >> guy pronounces it bouquet >> i feel like -- we start ed with this with netflix, we're like, cable got all bundled, then it got unbundled. and now look what we're having with streaming it's the same thing in a way and here's the deal. he's, like, the guy you want to kind of figure out how to rebundle this sort of thick. so, to me, every time i hear him talk about the opportunity set, these sorts of things, i want to be behind a guy like that, not some huge come flom rat that wants a foray into that kind of thing. >> all right up next, finalras. tdeout? with two times more biotin to bring out more of your inner beauty.

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news alert on the u.s. virgin islands complaint against jpmorgan steve? >> newly unredacted portions of documents show that jpmorgan wealth management ceo mary erdos was aware that epstein was paying cash to underage girls and women who were being brought

to his house other news m new emails show discussions of the federal investigations of epstein, including 2010 emails about a federal investigation into epstein for child trafficking and 2011 emails, where employees shared news stories about epstein and agreed to, quote, monitor the account and cash usage going forward. and in a deposition, erdos said the bank terminated its relationship with epstein after she became aware that the withdrawals were, quote, actual cash, and then said that epstein had made, quote, substantial cash withdrawals every year, including more than $800,000 in 2004 and 2005. now, we have reached out to both jpmorgan chase and will report back with any response, melissa. >> all right, steve, thank you around the horn we go. time for final trades. steve? >> mongo db on the morgan stanley upgrade. >> karen >> capri >> dan nathan? >> amazon.

stellar in this quarter. >> guy >> yankees playing at a .667 clip they keep winning two out of three, as you know, as you stated earlier, wynn resorts, if it's good enough for tilman, mel, it's good enough for me s>>ee you back here tomorrow fo i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise to help you to find it. "mad money" starts now. >> welcome to "mad money." i am just trying to make a little money. call me or tweet me.