tv Street Signs CNBC April 13, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines european markets start the session higher led by a soaring lu lu luxury sector after lvmh with strong sales in china. ecb policymakers lean toward slowing the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points in may as they look to put concerns from
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the contagion crisis over the banking industry >> what i see at the moment is there are still ground to cover. core inflation is still high i believe we have do more. i will not speculate about the next 25. fed minutes pushed u.s. markets in the red over banking concerns as march inflation drops to the lowest level in two years. the imf says central banks must contain the fight general price pressure >> we are now decisively heading back to central bank target which is why our advice remains to stay the course on inflation. and chinese exports post a surprise jump of almost 15% in march. breaking a five-month run of declines
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very warm welcome to the program. let's kickoff with a check on markets which are moving strongly higher this morning stoxx 600 is up .40% building on yesterday's gains. benchmark rallied 0.1% yesterday. marginal gains it is up 0.75% shortened holiday week i would describe the market as tale of two halves investors put risk on after the cpi print came through with the slowing of pace of headline inflation. more focus on the core inflation figure which remains steadily high and downbeat fed minutes led u.s. stocks lower.
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we have a weak hand over from wall street. european equities are moving trg the standout is the french market cac 40 up more than 1% why is this? luxury sector. you see what i'm talking about household goods contains the luxury names up nearly 2%. that is because lvmh delivered a strong sales report this morning. reported a 17% rise in first quarter sales ahead of expectations sales grew in nearly all of the categories with fashion and leather goods leading the increase the largest luxury group saw a rebound in a key market. china. it expects the region to drive growth this year that is why the stock is up nearly 5% in the first hour of trade. a little more color in terms of the luxury group has said.
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lvmh had an excellent start to the year europe and japan benefitted from robust demand from local customers. this is the key, asia experienced a significant rebound following the lifting of health restrictions. we are seeing a positive reaction not only in lvmh, but broader luxury space lvmh is a bellwether for the sector now investors are pricing in more robust rebound in the china mark hermes up 3.3% richmont up 4% lvmh is leading the pack the strongest performer in the stoxx 600 this morning. shifting from luxury to the macro. we have a shift on interest rates with the fed and european
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fed. the ecb policymakers are looking to a 25 point hike in may. the smaller rate increase would follow six consecutive rate increases by the ecb meanwhile, we did get data from germany. f inflation eased to the lowest level in seven months. as food prices surge by more than a fifth in terms of the market from the interest rate perspective, yeste yesterday, the ecb governor and hawk on the council said the ecb should hike by another 50 points in may markets are pricing in another 50 basis points by the ecb by june that is significantly more than what is priced in for the fed. that difference is playing a
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role in how markets are trading. here is a picture of european yields you have the tgermany 10-year trading at 2.4%. we are continuing higher yet again. in terms of currency markets with the trade off or the relative moves from the fed and ecb the dollar index retreated 0.6% yesterday this morning, the euro trading up .25%. we are above the 110 level is there further trade in euro we will talk about that with our market guest in a couple minutes. ecb had stark warnings though global growth could slow. the council member of the ecb told cnbc he did see future
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hikes. decisions need to be data driven >> it is important over the last eight months that we are so committed to fight against inflation in the system. we did six rate hikes. important rate hikes there is more ground to cover as christine lagarde said in the last press conference. i could not agree more what is important to me is we went through financial market trouble and uncertainty over the last five weeks. we have to find out the impact of that and we have to wait for the incoming data until the next meeting in may and we will see >> the market was surprised the ecb still went for a 50 basis point hike at the last meeting because that was after the situation in switzerland arose
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after the u.s. regional banks issue. what was the message there from the ecb? >> i think the message -- it was not a surprise to me there is no contradiction with what we have to do on the price stability side we have different instruments to target the price issues and financial stability. it was an important message to the financial market participants that we are committed when it comes to fighting against inflation the 50 basis point step was more or less a consequence taking my assumption with no contradiction with financial stability and price stability. >> there could be a knock-on effect people talk about the bank lending conditions as a function of what has happened in the last couple months. we could see a tightening of financial conditions there and tightening of credit standards
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are you seeing signs of that beginning to occur >> i'm not sure there are signs at the moment. we have to wait for the incoming data until the next meeting in may. if there is a spillover from the financial situation into, let me say, the lending transmission process of what we did so far on the rate side. as i said, this is the reason why it is important we have the meeting-to-meeting approach. i will not speculate on the next step i believe there is a next hike necessary. i do in the speculate about the size >> for markets, it is important to get an understanding of vicinity you are thinking about. up until now, the ecb has gone in bigger clips of 50 basis points now the market leaning to 25 because of what has happened is it fair to say the baseline
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for further rate hikes shifted to more normal increments of 25? >> i think i have a good understanding of the market and what i think is the next rate hike i think it is more important for us to learn what was the impact of the five weeks where we were in a complicated situation this is my approach. i would like to learn more about this impact and then we will see. this data dependant meeting-to-meeting approach is the best way. >> no more pre-committing to further interest rate snhikes? >> i'm not sure. i believe what i can see for the moment which is there is still ground to cover. core inflation is too high
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i believe we have to do more, but i will not speculate about the next rate hike meanwhile, pierre lynch, of the bank of belgium, says he is worried over the strength of the financial system. >> it means we have more to today. part of the concern is what is taking place on the banking front. honestly, it seems to be more of an american issue than europe. you know, we had some movement in the market over the last few weeks. essentially, we have a strong banking system we don't believe it will have a big impact on the economy. yes, directionally, we have to do more. how much we still have one inflation reading before the decision in may. it's going to be between 25 and 50. >> those are the options on the
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table. either 25 or 50. >> i think there is a strong consensus we have to do more how much depends on the reading of inflation >> why is the ecb moving away from pre-committing to further interest rate snhikes? >> we had to convey the message of substantial move to catch up on inflation being higher than we thought now we are in a situation where we can afford and we have to really be more dependent on the incoming data. it doesn't mean we are at the end of the hiking. we are in a position where we can be more sensitive to where inflation is going on a month by month basis and new approprojec.
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>> what new information would you need to see in order to be convinced 25 basis points would be more appropriate? >> i guess a lot will depend on the reading of core. if it keeps going up, then, of course, that would be very bad news if it slows down, then one month reading is not going to be a big change we have had three months of core reading which were moving in the wrong direction. another reading moving in the wrong direction would shift the boat >> now very pleased to say we have much more coming up for you from the imf world bank tomorrow with the austrian national bank governor robert holzmann he was in the press yesterday. one of the talks on the governing council saying the ecb should hike by 50 basis points in may we will see what he can tell
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joumanna and how consensus within the council is feeling about the next rate meeting. now let's switch gears and talk about the u.s inflation in the country eased in march to the lowest level in almost two years consumer price index rose 0.1% for the month and 5% from a year ago. well down from the 6% annual rate recorded in february. core inflation and this is the key gauge which remains sticky up 0.4% on the month and 5.6% on the year let's break it down in terms of how prices are evolving from a sector perspective energy costs fell and food prices were flat on the month. used vehicle prices fell increase in shelter costs which rose and that kept inflation high meanwhile, minutes from the
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fmoc meeting in march. several policymakers considered a pause last month, but decided to continue the hiking campaign. bank failures broad concerns over economic conditions michael barr said the banking sector is sound and resilient. it was a roller coaster, a tale of two halves. initially, the market reaction to the inflation report was positive then as investors looked into the details specifically the core inflation figure which remains stubbornly high and got the recession forecast from the fed minutes, that triggered a turn for the worse and triggered selling in the session the nasdaq dropped .90%. s s&p dropped .4%.
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and let's look at the dow because it paints a picture of how investors thought about the releases initially we had the move higher and then markets selling off into the close in terms of treasury, we had a roller coaster session yesterday. the most interesting move is the 2-year treasury. trading at 3.95% yesterday, the 2-year treasury fell 15 basis points after the cpi print was released after the fed minutes which pointed to a mild recession in the u.s., the 2-year treasury ended six basis points lower joumanna caught up with the imf deputy managing director who said the fund is more cautious about the outlook for global growth amid the turmoil in the financial sector. >> since last january, we have seen developments in financial markets which have given us some pause in terms of thinking of what the output can be
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we see the possibility of a soft landing. it has gotten harder than january. the reason for that is the financial stress that we saw in martha has come down this is the beginning. we could see more with financial stress and low interest rates and sudden hike in interest rates like we have seen. this is why we have more caution than we did in january >> i wonder if the whole banking stress did not happen in the u.s. and switzerland and europe, if that outlook would have changed. how much did that role play? >> it did play an important role, especially with the balance of risks the baseline hasn't changed that much the balance of risks we now see firmly to the down side as opposed to in january where it was a little more mixed. it had an important effect
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>> secretary-general did missed concerns that the banking turmoil was turning to a systemic issue >> we don't believe there are systemic issues. the system is better regulated than before the global crisis. yes, there have been fires and we need to review what happened and why. regulators stos responded swift. we believe the financial system is resilient and specific reasons in those particular circumstances for those fires. you know, as monetary policy continues to be tightened and to get inflation under control, it will increase the risk of exposing vulnerables >> let's welcome the chief strategist to the program. daniel, welcome to the program
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let's ask what drove your opinion of the market yesterday? the day was split. investors put risk on the table, but ultimately u.s. stocks ended lower and we saw yields move off the lows of the day. what was your read putting together the fed meeting minutes and cpi report what was cause for concern there? >> thanks for having me. the first thing to note is you don't want to get caught up in the day-to-day movement. thing big picture here is inflation certainly on the headline level is decelerating it decelerated for nine months it is down to the level we saw in the summer of 2021. there are issues with the core level of inflation, but there is enough here for everybody. the key point is with inflation decelerating, that means the fed is getting close to the hiking cycle. i think it is basically one and
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done raise again by 25 points in may and that's itive for markets, you get the ecb sounding hawkish and they continue to raise traits that -- raise rates. that will drive down the dollar. >> daniel, i want to get into the difference with what is happening in europe versus the u.s. just on the inflation point, what gives you comfort on the core inflation figure? i take your point that headline ng inflation is easing. we see stubbornly high shelter pricing pressure which i know is a key part of the core inflation gauge. >> if you look at shelter and break it down in just terms, the month to month increase decelerated a little bit we see the shelter prices which is a big part of the core cpi which has been continuing to go
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up it started to decelerate if you break it down and look at lead indicators, we have the national federation of independent business small business survey. it shows what the small businesses are doing in price increases. they are cutting down sharply. that is a indication for the core inflation another leading indicator here is job openings. these have come down substantially on the year on year basis that is another lead indicator for the overall level of core inflation. what we say is over the next couple months that core level of inflation will start to decelerate. >> okay. that's good. if we see inflation decelerate, that means the fed is doing its job and rate hikes are working at the same time yesterday in the meeting minutes from the fmoc, we are looking at a mild recession potentially in the u.s. this year where do earnings go if we look at the picture where inflation is easing and growth is taking a
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sizeable hit >> that was the surprise out of the minutes that the fed staff was talking about mild rec recession. i don't think there are other surprises. jay powell mentioned a camp which wanted a pause in interest rates and those who wanted to raise aggressively they are likely to increase by 25 basis points. in terms of where the earnings come from, actually if you look at global earnings, not just in the u.s., for 2024, they have been accelerating because they start to price in a bit of economic recovery. particularly coming out of china we are looking at global or country world index of 11% for 2024 for 2023, the all country world index earnings are about flat. it has been discounted by analysts and markets they are not expecting any earnings growth which indicates the mild recession in the u.s. we need to look forward. we need to look at 2024.
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the picture is constructive. earnings are picking up. we expect recovery to come through and china is a big say >> reasons to be optimistic for 2024 in your view. what about the eurozone? this morning, we got a lot of news coming out of the ecb according to sources the governing council looking at 25 basis points and at the same time, a hawk calling for 50 basis points what is your expectation of the european central bank goes next and elaborate for us and how you see euro evolving? >> it is focused on the core level of inflation which is sticky and makes the hawkish camp, particularly the germany, uncomfortable with the core inflation. they will raise it at the next meeting and next couple
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meetings that will tell you the exchange rate and that difference that supported the dollar last year is eroding as that starts to decline because the ecb is raising or catching up with the u.s. and that difference starts to narrow, it means the euro can appreciate there are other currencies that appreciate against the dollar as well what tells you is the fed pauses and others are catching up and the dollar goes down. >> pretty remarkable pound continues higher from here best performing currency this year daniel, let's wrap up on china you mentioned it as a key factor as we go into 2024 what with is your take on the recovery results from lvmh painted an encouraging picture. >> looking at the macro picture, exports was a surprise on the upside the message coming out of china is that now they ended the covid
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zero policies, they have been stepping up the credit credit standards are tightening in developed markets and loosening in china the credit data has been supportive for faster economic growth we should expect china to do a lot of heavy lifting for growth economic growth. you could expect 1.5%. it is not that great, but it is not negative that puts us more in line with the soft landing scenario. it is quite finally balanced with the developed market economies still need to recover and still absorb that monetary tightening from the fed. >> daniel, thank you so much for sharing your views chief strategist we will talk more about china when we come back as trade data blows past expectations in the month of march we will breakdown all of those
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chinese trade data blew past expectations in march with the exports swinging 14.8% on the year imports surprised following far less than expected trade surplus was more than double sam baddas filed this report >> the market was expecting another drop, but not only did they snap five months of declines, but reported double digits reaching 15% for year on year. shipments of ev batteries and solar products drove up the chinese exports and warned of weakening global demand and geopolitical factors testing the china trade picture. improvement from the 10% decline in the first two months which was helped by shipments of coal
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which hit a three-year high. expectations of the recovery and bans on aussie coal dropped. the decline speaks to the weak demand in the property sector which brought the trade balance to 2.2 billion the numbers are surprising given south korean exports are a gauge. given the other data has been pointing to a slower recovery which have struggled to keep up with the post reopening rebound in the services sector the big question is whether this export growth is sustainable or we have seen an an unlocking of trade in the chinese new year. i'm sam baddas, back to you. shifting to the uk, economic output unchanged in february
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this against the forecast of 0.1% gain. on the annual basis, gdp grew 0.5% jeremy hunt said the uk is on the right path to avoid recession. it seems currency markets would agree. uk is in a less bad than feared position economically. we have seen strong performance in sterling throughout the course of the year this morning, up .25% to $125.15. still a notable rise in sterling in terms of gilts, here is uk bonds this morning yields higher across the board moving in lock-step across europe the 10-year gilt is 3.58%. just below at 3.52%.
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uk home builders suggesting the down turn is priced in you have the development up 2% and in terms of what they have done, they raised from buy to hold a lot of positive momentum within the uk home building space. property surveyors expect the housing market to improve over the next year according to a new survey alli together, we are seeing a decent bid elsewhere, tesco saw a few year profit brought on not by pass ing on profits to customers. coming up on the show, why the summer of 2023 could be the polar opposite of last year when
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it comes to gas. we'll be right back. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have everything you need to streamline your shipping, returns, and product storage, so you can focus on growing your business. because when we work together, the future is bright. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions at finding success on their own terms. start your
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines ecb policymakers lean toward slowing the pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points in may as they look to put concerns from the contagion banking crisis to rest >> what i can see for the moment is there is still ground to cover. core inflation is still too high i believe we have to do more i will not speculate about the next rate hike. fed minutes pushed u.s. markets into the red over banking concerns as march inflation drops to the lowest level in two years the imf deputy says they must contain the fight against price pressure. >> it is hard to conclude we are heading back to central bank targets which is why our advice remains to stay the course on inflation. european equities start the
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session higher led by a soaring luxury sector after lvmh sales soaring to 17% sending shares to an all-time high. chinese exports with a surprise jump breaking a five-month run of declines we have pretty fascinating lines coming from the bank of england right now. this is a fresh lending survey really interesting given so much debate around the extent to which credit conditions will tighten in the coming months uk lenders expect the availability of secured lending to decrease in the next few months they expect unsecured credits to increase slightly in the second quarter.
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the availability of corporate credit to remain unchanged mortgage spreads expected to narrow in the second quarter on the default rate, they are already seeing uk lenders are rising defaults and expect further increases in the second quarter. they see increased in unsecured lending defaults and expect further increase in the defaults in the second quarter and uk lenders reporting an increase in households secured loan default and expect more in the second quarter. the question now to what extent will higher interest rates and the turmoil in the global banking sector do some of the bank of england's job for it in the future and what does it mean for further interest rate hikes in will they continue to raise rates if we are seeing the
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impact of what they have done already. some food for thought as we head into the trading day let's get a check of the european equities. cac 40 is 90 basis points higher we were trading 1% higher at the start. things have turned negative. dax is in negative territory ftse 100 is in negative territory. some of the shine is coming off. there is so much to digest with the corporate and macro with the modest pull back it is something to moat. in terms of the macro, the ecb head does not expect to see the recession in europe. >> i'm more positive i do not see the mild recession
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for the year maybe the first quarter could be a weak quarter the rest of the year seems to be pr pretty good. we are ending up with a time the german economy improved in the last couple months the german industry is pretty high the energy prices is more or less soft. we were worried with the situation in the past, but this is now over and the outlook is good >> do you really believe the energy crisis is solved? there is not a problem going into next winter >> i think you are right this was a mild winter also germany did a lot to overcome dependance on russian gas. there is more lng. this is something that will not go away. it will be there for the next winter and this mild winter helped for the next winter the storages are pretty full
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i'm really positive. >> i follow the pmi data closely. i think what is interesting there is a disteninction is the strength on the services side and weakness in manufacturing.co the pre-he pandemic levels what can be done >> we shouldn't forget where we came from. we were in a complicated situation and started with the war of aggression of russia to ukraine. we shouldn't forget what we achieved in the last 15 months the german industry has a good capability to deal with the situation. there is the inherent strength of the german economy. i believe they will overcome
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this and go back to the levels we saw before the pandemic >> the european bank president said it should drive investment in renewables. >> i'm happy the u.s. is detecting sustainability we should take this as a challenge and as a clear message that we must do more and need to be faster. this is nothing where we should deliver a competition on subsidies for the united states. we should just get into gear and beef up resolve to change the use of fuels and raw materials which will not lead to a sustainable future >> our next guest says gas prices could plummet this summer this a reversal to 2022 when prices spiraled as russian flows plummeted.
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natasha fielding joins me now to talk what is happening in gas markets. natasha, thank you for being with us. we were looking at a potential disaster on the energy front in europe as we headed into the past winter. it feels we are in april and now averted a worst-case scenario. what is in store for next winter should we be concerned >> for this summer, in fact, we have, as you mentioned before, a dramatic reversal from the year before almost the problem of too much gas around for the coming winter which are significant risks. in many ways, europe was lucky over the past winter the weather was pretty mild. not too much heetating demanded the lng was muted partly to
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china's zero covid policy. that policy lifted it is a big unknown factor, but there could be a resurgence of lng demand in asia and the weather could be colder. there are certainly significant risks heading into the coming winter the situation looks better than it did this time a year ago. >> it is remarkable we are now looking at a situation where we have too much lng. what does that mean for the incentives for lng producers if we are looking at the oversupply of the market in the next few months >> one possible scenario which i think is still very unlikely based on where prices are is prices in europe and asia fall so much it no longer makes sense for producers in the u.s. to
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load cargos. that would have to mean prices in europe and asia fall to the level of the u.s. hub. we are far from that level it happened in 2020 over the pandemic year. it is possible that it could happen again. >> okay. very clear as you mentioned, one of the big, if not the biggest unknown p is what happens in china what are the signals you are getting in terms of demand from china? >> at the moment for the coming months, it doesn't look like there will be a huge increase in chinese energy demand. the state owned chinese company doesn't expect chinese buyers to be open for the spot market. it expect cargos to come under long-term contracts. this year, perhaps, we won't see
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a big increase in lng demand who knows how strongly and how fast the economy will recover? >> one of the things we observed in the wake of the natural gas prices switching from the industrial users of gas switching from gas to oil and now gas prices have come down, are you seeing a reversal of the trend and users -- industrial users -- switching from oil back to gas >> yes, indeed gas prices are now below crude oil prices on the energy basis they are below coal prices on the one hand in the power sector, there is an incentive to burn gas ahead of coal for power generation yes, on the other hand, there's now an incentive to use gas as a
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feed stock as opposed to crude oil and an ot-- and other products. >> it is astonishing how quickly it has changed is there any chance we intro tueintroduc the highs we saw in 2022 >> the market has become more fragile because less flexibility on the supply side russia was a huge supplier of gas to europe and huge supplier of flexibility with very little russian gas coming into europe now, there is a greater chance of that balance flipping back the other way. i think it's a highly unlikely scenario we get prices spiking as they did in 2022. we can't rule out difficult
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u.s. president joe biden is scheduled to meet michael higgins today as well as address the irish parliament on the second full day of his visit the irish finance minister said he was happy to see biden. >> we are happy that president biden has come to the island that was to celebrate the good friday agreement which is 25 years old at this time also, for us in ireland to be able to recognize the role of
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the united states of a number of administrations on a bipartisan basis, all of whom played an important role in encouraging and supporting the peace process. he has moved to the republic of ireland and he hhe has relative the county of louth. he is giving an address to the parliament tomorrow afternoon. we will host a special dinner in honor of president biden tomorrow as well a great celebration. >> the euro group president said this trip is a proud moment. >> we are proud of the united states with strong irish roots beyond those, to have the president of the united states spending so much time on the island of ireland sends two messages the first is a strong note of
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encouragement it sends to us regarding how we need to maintain the island of ireland with brexit and what it means for northern ireland and the message he is sending regarding supporting northern ireland and the economic development of northern ireland is a very important message. >> what is clear is that president biden is very excited to be visiting his heritage which is a mix of personal and political motivation for the trip he said the irish are the only people who are nostalgic about the future he doesn't know why his family left because it is so beautiful there. you see him walking around the pub there. people say it feels like a homecoming for the president he spoke about the northern ireland agreement and this is
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both a political and a personal trip he did have one gaffe. otherwise, he is clearly very happy to be visiting ireland on this four-day trip we'll keep an eye on it and bring you any key lines as they come through the next couple days. back to markets. a check on europe equities the cac 40 is up 1%. we are seeing a very strong trade in the luxury sector lvmh stock is at the top of the stoxx 600. we are currently up. lvmh on the back of the impressive first quarter sales report it is up 4.5%. christian dior is up 4.6%. not far is montclare and richmont there is lvmh stock trading at the all-time high after the
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company said it was an excellent start to the year. u.s. seeing steady performance and the key asia experiencing a significant rebound following the covid restrictions being lifted in terms of european bonds, we see fresh news from the ecb sources suggesting the ecb converging on the 25 basis points rate hike in may. yields are higher across the board. right now, the 10-year is trading 2.4% and the italian trading at 4.26%. in terms of the wall street open, here is the picture for u.s. equities. you have all three of the majors poised to open higher after what was a downbeat session yesterday. it did not start off that way. we has a positive reaction to the all-important march cpi.
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we looked in the details and core inflation was high and the federal reserve cited significant recession risks in its latest meeting minutes suggesting the banking sector could face difficulty ahead. putting that together, the core inflation print with the fed meeting minutes and all three major indices ended lower. in terms of the day ahead, keep an eye on the ppi report due out today. tomorrow is u.s. bank earnings for the reporting season that is it for the show. i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. it's hard to run a business on your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have everything you need to streamline your shipping, returns, and product storage,
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. stocks looking to bet back on track as investors look for inflation data and the cooler cpi report investors are reviewing the minutes in the fed policy meeting with the policy suggesting a mild recession ahead. moves you need to make with your money on that outlook. shares of alibaba sliding this morning on reports that they look to wrap up the investment in the chinese tech giant. an
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