it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. stocks looking to bet back on track as investors look for inflation data and the cooler cpi report investors are reviewing the minutes in the fed policy meeting with the policy suggesting a mild recession ahead. moves you need to make with your money on that outlook. shares of alibaba sliding this morning on reports that they look to wrap up the investment in the chinese tech giant. and exclusive.

laying out the state of freight and the broader economic trends. on the clock not exactly. the clock not ticking for the luxury watch market. it finds a new lease on life from luxury buyers it is thursday, april 13th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's check on the u.s. stock futures. a muted start this morning we are seeing green across the board. all three indices higher stocks off a modestly lower session off the cooler cpi data and the fed minutes showing expectations from the central bank for a mild recession now. we will dive into that coming up shortly. the dow holding on to very minor gains for the week up .50% on the week. we are checking the bond market.

looking at yields. yields holding steady with the recession concerns the yield on the benchmark 10-year treasury at 3.42 the yield on the 2-year treasury dipping below 4% something to watch a lot of talk about that yesterday here on cnbc energy and wti with the highest level on the year yesterday. a pull back now. wti crude at $83.25 brent crude at $87.25. we will dig into the crude price action in a moment and cryptocurrency bitcoin and ethereum moving up bitcoin back above $30,000 arjun said that is meaningful with investor sentiment. up 1.25% ethereum up 3.5% getting close to the $2,000

level that is meaningful with ethereum ethereum is re-balancing with the currency let's check on the action in asia and europe. arabile gumede is standing by. arabile, lvmh is moving the cac higher. >> it is let's kickoff in asia and you see a mixed board behind me as the trading picture took in the inflation data in the u.s. and data from the asian market as well you see gains from the hang seng and nikkei we do have drops in australia and the shanghai composite to the european picture, lvmh taking the board higher on that front andi moving the cac 40 higher .80% higher. in the uk, we saw the retailer tesco coming out with numbers

there. that has been interesting to note having gone down just a bit. more negative across the front here today as opposed to more positivity the smi moving out of lockstep yields moved lower after the cpi print. that has now faded that is the european board frank. >> arabile, thank you. time for the corporate stories with silvana henao she is here with those silvana. >> frank, good morning development overnight in the battle over the mifepristone abortion pill. fee federal appeals court blocking the ruling issued by the texas judge. that would extend the approval of the drug. under the order, the approval will stay in effect and the drug will remain on the market while an expedited appeal takes place. shares of alibaba are tumbling here in the u.s. and

overseas following the report that softbank unloaded most of the stake in the chinese tech giant. according to the financial times, citing filings, softbank so sold $7.2 billion of shares. softbank has posted huge losses amid the slowdown in the tech sector which slammed valuations. goldman sachs is shuffling the lineup in the equity trading division following the exit of a top trader that includes naming new heads for the bank's global flow deri derivatives. the reorganization steps from the former head of equity trading for the americas who retired last month he was such a big earner for goldman, that his compensation topped ceo david solomon's >> a shakeup there as goldman

sachs. silvana, thank you. turning back to the broader markets. investors weighing recession risks after the minutes from the fed meeting noted several looked to pause rates the fed watch tool pricing in a 66% chance of another quarter point rate hike in may with the rate cuts in the second half of the year jeremy segel says this creates a difficult road ahead for the markets. >> suppose we have a recession earnings are down 10% or 12% you give me a number for a year. then they will boom again in 2024 and 2025. i think those are going to be great years. if you look over the trough, i'm still saying don't -- although it might be rough in the next six months, unless you are

short-term and tactical -- i'm not a seller. >> let's bring in gina sanchez gina, great to see you >> thank you, frank. >> professor siegel not mincinging words there what do you think? >> i generally agree with him. i think we are under estimating how much tightening is happening in the banking system with svb and how many deposits left the banking system there is that. you are starting to see real disconnect in the market the way the high yield market is not consistent with the equity markets. i'll side with the bond markets. we are probably more in troubled waters than flying free and clear. if you look at what is happening and priced in the fed fund futures, that likelihood there

is one more rate hike and we have the nice cutting cycle, that is not priced in to the yield curve. the yield curve is pricing in a really, really tough recession if you look at the way the economists are forecasting the recession odds, they are raising the outlook for 2023, but worsening the outlook for 2024 ing suggesting the recession will be longer than the usual recession. we are already in an earnings recession. corporate earnings are starting to get hit. >> first quarter corporate earnings declining 7%. a lot of economists forecasting recession. now the base case is recession for the fed minutes. how does that impact portfolio management on your end with short-term bonds and equities? >> you know, look, i think this is -- in the near term, you have to stay defensive. the problem is a lot of

defensive is very expensive. you have to look for places right now. we are getting back into a world where stock picking matters. the quality of earnings are going to matter going into 2024 and end of 2023 and into 2024. we are staying, frankly, high quality. within the credit space, we are staying high as we can get in the capital structure. we're not super bullish on earnings, per se, because we know we're going into a trough of earnings. that is probably going to continue being high near er in the capit structure is not an issue. this is not a walk in the park this is a stock pickers and bond pickers market. >> gina sanchez, thank you time now for a check on the

big money movers we have harley-davidson dipping on news that the cfo will step down at the end of the month she will take over as the ceo o hasbro the spinoff of the electric bike unit with the spac merger. stock prices are moving higher. when we come back on "worldwide exchange," another big money mover and shares of one luxury giant taking off. and we dive into whether crude oil has more room to run. and later, conversation with dhl america ceo mike parra an. a very busy hour ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns mak . now ports can know where every piece of cargo is.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." more companies focus on esg, cisco is opening an office in atlanta. it is what cisco calls a talent center the features will use low voltage power and cisco will hire 700 employees the ceo says there a focus on diversity. >> the huge amount of women and

minority engineers that graduate from georgia tech to three really top drawer hbcus. it is all right here in atlanta. >> cisco recently investing $100 million in the cybersecurity partners in the current quarter and next quarter to gain market share. offerings were 7% of revenues last your. scott herron says this is a growth driver for the network. >> security and networking go hand in glove. you don't have a viable network. it is a space we invested in historically it is a growth market. the challenges that our customers see are only getting more complex with the state of current apps and hybrid cloud. >> we expect an update on the investments we cisco reports on may 17th. from one dow to another,

chevron ceo paid $23 million last year according to the fcc filing that is up 4% from 2021. the average annual compensation for chevron employees fell 12% to $161,000. under a new metric required by the fcc, mike wirth's stock and awards and other compensation is based in that doesn't show his real pay with the stock awards and those are not known until options are exercised or stock sold. oil prices are pulling back following two gains of gains as investors are cautious of the u.s. recession which could lead to weaker fuel demand. wti crude trading at the highest level yesterday since november oil is getting a boost after

energy secretary-ge jennifer granholm spoke out we have matt here with more. matt, give us a sense for your price target of oil. is it lineal or are there twists and turns. >> there are always twists and turns. the strength coming through in the next few months. that is predicated on really strong demand coming from refiners as we gear up for peak summer driving season and we see europe, we see the u.s. and china exiting from refinery maintenance in the months ahead, that will drive strong crude demand and prices push higher from here. all that said, in the second half of the year, we have concerns that the lag impact of

interest rate hikes will weigh on demand and weigh on economies and weigh on prices. >> matt, as you said that, oil prices are up vslightly for wti and brent crude. i want to ask you yesterday from the fed. the base case was recession. we hear jennifer granholm with the u.s. looking to refill the spr. what does this mean for the oil market a lot of data points in there. >> absolutely. i think, frank, what we are getting better insight at the moment or going to in the next couple days is essentially from the monthly reports that we have coming out we have opec coming out today. we will hear more about the production cut they made where they are concerned with the demand side or whether it is the increase in supply we have the same tomorrow with the monthly report this is key.

while there are demand concerns that are not visible yet, but on the radar for opec plus and the eia raised production forecast for the u.s. this year and looking at averaging over 12.5 million barrels a day. that is a record higher than 2019 level you have a barrel from iea saying the cuts are offset from the u.s. and canada and ghana and brazil it is a demand and supply story coming through here. in terms of the spr releases, we are still pushing barrels out of the spr. we are not purchasing to put back in let alone where the price is to repurchase the spr issue is not something that will materialize soon. >> a bunch of other macro issues i want to talk about russian exports. how are they impacting the

market >> frank, we continue to see them outperforming on the cruise side, we continue to see the seaborn exports holding up we see 2 million barrels to india. china is taking over 1 million the barrels a day. no change on the crude oil size. on the clean exports, they are super strong have we seen russia cut production a little bit? yes, that is likely due to domestic maintenance not export demand. we expect production will tick higher as they come out of maintenance in the months ahead just like everybody else really, russia is a bearish influence. we expect them to take barrels off the market and they aren't >> matt smith, oil prices ticking higher while we're talking. matt smith

thank you. ahead on "worldwide exchange," luxury time pieces. robert frank lays out how younger consumers are breathing life into the sales of watches we will have that and more when "worldwide exchange" returns stay with us go. go scientist. go software. go cure. go production. go faster and safer. emerson automation software helps breakthrough medicines get to market at warp speed. go human go. go boldly. emerson. ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy,

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." big money mover. shares of lvmh touching a record high the luxury company reporting a 17% rise in sales. lvmh carrying other names with it hermes and kering and moncler all higher this morning. and prices for high end timepieces facing prior essure last year, but new owners moving in we have robert frank with more >> i follow the money, frank prices for collectible watches falling 27% over the last year is this a burst of the bubble which saw prices quadruple the past year.

the ceo among with rolex told me he thinks prices won't go much lower than they are now. the reason is a new generation of millennial and gen z collectors >> the funny thing is we thought that young people could not appreciate craftsmanship and watchmaking. they did it is funny to see today that actually the young generation are becoming our top ambassadors. they are the ones preaching the choir with social media. they are the best advertising and bringing their parents to the brand. >> demand is soaring and supply is not audemars makes 50,000 watches a year they can sell over 80,000 if they want. because there are no watches

available to buy in stores, prices for pre-owned are two to three times the original price if you look at jumbo royal oak, the most popular model, it retails for $35,000. pre-owned for over $115,000. still a huge gap between the demand from the young buyers and supply of new watches you can buy in the store >> robert, it resales for $115,000 that is a huge market for a pre-owned watch. why don't they make more watches? >> that is the question everyone wants to know. it takes one-to-two years to train a watchmaker to make the watch. you can flip a switch and increase production. the other reason is the reason why people love the watches is

because they are rare. you know, audemars is rare and doesn't make much per year it is striking the balance and making them exclusive and making them possible some day to own one. >> that royal oak is a beautiful watch. i would love to own one. i don't have $115,000. >> not yet >> fingers crossed frank and frank show. still on deck on "worldwide exchange," the ceo of dhl mike parra is diving into the supply of the industry. we have that in the exclusive. if you haven't already, follow our podcast if you miss us, check us out on your favorite podcast app. "wex" will be right back stay with us

it is 5:30 a.m. in new york city we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. here is what is on deck. rocky road for the economy and markets. the fed now suggesting a mild recession in the cards future is looking to shrug off the outlook. apple looking to triple output from the increasingly favored emerging growth hub. and jeff bezos is bowing out of the bid for the washington

football team. he is not adding team owner to his repertoire all here on "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "wex." i'm frank holland. it's a bit of a muted start. all three indices up right now the dow would open up 50 points higher right now it's early stocks off a lower session on the back of the cooler cpi data and the fed minutes. we will dive into those deeper coming up shortly. the bond market now. the 10-year treasury is holding steady at 3.42 this is the headline with bonds. yield on the 2-year treasury is dipping below 4% we are looking at energy wti at the highest level for the

year we saw a reversal in the oil market now a tick higher. brent crude at $83 a barrel. up again fractionally. brent crude at $87 a barrel. natural gas down over .50%. shares of american airlines dove yesterday after the first quarter earnings missed estimates. look at the shares in the pre-market shares of american up 1% this morning. american also weighed in on other airline stocks delta and united and jetblue all fell between 2% and 6.5% yesterday. the dive right here when it comes to the airline names we want to get a check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. she is back with those silvana, good morning. >> frank, good morning i'm back let's start with collapsed ftx it recovered more than $7 billion in assets.

this is according to the bankruptcy lawyer who offered the update in court saying the platform gathered $2.4 billion since the last update in january. ftx ceo warned customers and investors to not hold out hope for a full recovery. apple is tripling the india output to $7 billion with the 7% of iphones in india with the partners foxconn it is a significant leap from the estimated 1% of production the country was involved within 2021. and ibm is exploring a sale of the weather operation as they

lo look to the overall. an auction of the business is at an early stage and there may not be a deal. private equity is most likely the buyer and what could be a purchase worth more than $1 billion. frank. >> silvana, thank you. turning now to the state of freight. dow transports are underestimates and continues to weigh on the sector. the inflation report yesterday did not help with transports snapping a three-day win streak. one tailwind for the sector is re-shoring companies moving production to mexico or sourcing south of the border for more on the state of fr freight, i'm joined by mike parra. ceo of dhl mike, great to see you we may have technical difficulties mike, can you hear me?

>> yes >> where are you you have the white background. that may be part of the problem. great to see you touch on the u.s. supply chain right now. my concern of the freight recession with the u.s., especially with rates declining. we talk about the global supply chain. you have customers here in the united states and across the globe. what are you seeing? >> first of all, what we are seeing is what you covered with apple. china plus one is starting to happen it is not an absolute move away. we are seeing growth and growth continue inbound to the u.s. customers are shifting part of the supply chain to taiwan and vietnam and india. the biggest winner is mexico. >> i did want to talk about this specifically re-shoring. we have data from you showing that the trade link from mexico

he to to the u.s. is increasing double digit. what does that mean when it comes to re-shorre-shoreing -- re-shoring >> we are starting to see it ramp up. it will obviously grow as it goes to the end of the year. then as we move into 2024 as well >> when you say it is not a complete move away from china, are there sectors to move to get closer to customers? >> absolutely. electronics and more in the auto parts and engineering and manufacturing. >> something to watch. we talk about the different sectors. i know you have a business with air delivery and also ground delivery is there a preferred method? a lot of companies want to get close tr to the united states t cut down on issues

is it truck or trrail or air to get things to the united states? >> it is a bit of all. we are enjoying the air component, frank as of quarter number one, we see 20% inbound growth from u.s. to mexico that is a big winner we see movement in vietnam apparel is moving more and more to vietnam tech to taiwan some tech to mexico as well. then we're seeing thailand as well jumping up in the space yeah, just growth happening in all of the sectors we're breaking through another one we didn't talk about is brazil. the auto industry and outbound with 40% in auto. >> also that china plus plus strategy we will have to have you back to

talk about that. that is a continued story. more companies are shifting production away from china i want totalk about is electri vehicles we had phil lebeau on yesterday with the united states considering the tightening of standards with emissions what are you doing with electric vehicles what is the strategy for dhl? >> we have over 20,000 vehicles operating today. we have a goal of 2030 of where we need to be as an organization with evs we have 80% of the vehicles across the world electrified >> what about e-commerce especially here in the united states, it is cooled a bit as people get back to stores and shifting from goods to services. what are you seeing when it comes to global ecommerce? >> you know, frank, it is still growing. it is growing higher than the

levels pre-pandemic. slowed down a bit. we have seen continued growth in the space of b2b ecommerce >> mike, we have to let you go one last word. we are worried about a u.s. freight recession. are you seeing signs >> look, you know, we are accustomed to change economic crisis. russia and ukraine is an example. it is up to us to help customers navigate and unlock growth opportunities. >> mike parra , great to see you thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the fed up daupdating recession pre-diction --

prediction and as we head to break, the majority of latin music coming from streaming with youtube and spotify accounting for the growth. chatgpt may be useful according to stock prices. chatgpt able to predict were better than random and approximately 35% of financial jobs are at risk of being automated by a.i that is a scary stat. four major league teams are extending beer sales after the seventh inning games are shorter this year with the new pitch clock. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment

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united states. >> that was the oracle of omaha warren buffett speaking to becky quick. warren buffett you see talking to becky quick over the situation and telling people to calm down with the banking situation. however, the fed has a different perspective. the banking crisis will send the economy into recession later this year. according to the minutes of the march policy meeting several fed heads weighed policy increases because of the turmoil. they decided reducing high inflation is important and p pushed ahead with the 25 point hike we have nick timiraos here with more >> thank you >> the fed has a bit of a different take i want to ask a lot of people believe we are heading toward recession and a lot of people believe we will get a quarter

point rate hike in the next meeting. how does this compare to 2007 and 2008 was there a rate hike back then as well? >> no, this is unusual for the fed staff to present to the fmoc saying we are putting recession in the forecast. the base case is a mild recession. you did not see that before the recession of 2007 to 2009. through the summer of 2008, if you look at the minutes, the staff forecast was saying growth would slow in the second half of the year and then pick up in 2009 of course, whatis different no is core inflation quite sticky above 4.5% the one thing has traditionally gotten inflation to come down is recession. >> you mentioned inflation

we saw the cpi report yesterday. cpi in line and cooler than expected core cpi in line we have another report that the fed gauges on april 28th that is days before the may meeting. was there anything in the cpi report would be meaningful for the central bank >> the fed will be able to take the cpi report and ppi report and come up with a pretty good idea of where the pce would come in i think what could be more interesting is tomorrow's retail sales report that sales report will give the first look at how consumption activity and consumer spending responded in march with the banking stress you have retail sales and employment cost index at the end of april that is a high fidelity report

for the fed. it is a better measure of wage growth than anything else out th there. they will be looking at what happened with earnings for workers in the first quarter and the question for the may meeting is how much weight will they put on the hard data versus some of the sentiment survey data anecdote around the banking stress influencing activity. >> you mention earnings for workers. what about the banks on friday the banks are a big concern for the central bank how much will we see from wells fargo and jpmorgan chase how much does that weigh on the eventual decision? >> what is more interesting than the big banks are the mid-sized banks. if you look at the trigger of the silicon valley bank is the disclosure to raise capital on march 8th. that kicked off the run on march 9th. the question is are there any sort of disclosures in the

earnings for the mid-sized banks to make people say wait a minute this deposit erosion is worse than we thought. does that create another round of tumult in bank equities that is the thing the fed would t pay attention to if there were more acute stresses in the system the fed did not want to hike into a mess in march they were able to get things calmed down enough over that last weekend especially because of the swiss with ubs and credit suisse can they remain more calm and mild and that allows the fed to judge they can continue to move ahead with monetary policy because the banking industry is not going to slow down the economy. >> nick, great to have you here.

appreciate it. >> thanks. we are turning to the latest allegations in the lawsuit brought by the u.s. virgin islands brought by jpmorgan chase over the ties to jeffrey epstein. claims the bank was aware in 2006 of accusations that jeffrey epstein paid to have underage girls brought to his home. the head of jpmorgan chase's asset and wealth management division in 2008 and she was interviewed in the case. she admitted in the deposition that jpmorgan chase was aware by 2006 that jeffrey epstein was accused to pay catch to underage girls brought to his home. the bank ended its relationship with him in 2013 jpmorgan chase declined to comment, but called the lawsuit misplaced and without merit. still here on deck, jeff kilburg laying out the trading day and why the markets could be

poised to test key levels. if you haven't already, check us out on podcast apps and catch the exclusive teiew with andy jassy on "squawk box" coming up finally we can eat. ♪ you know you make me wanna...♪ and then we looked around and said, wait a minute, this isn't even our stroller! (laughing) you live with your parents, but you own a house in the metaverse? mhm. cool...i don't get it. here's to getting financially ready for anything! and here's to being single and ready to mingle. who's ready to cha-cha?! ♪ yeah, yeah ♪

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up" as we close in on the 6:00 hour. a federal appeals court blocking the ruling by the texas judge that reversed the fda approval of mifepristone. shares of alibaba tumbling in overseas trading, but higher in the u.s. after softbank sold a majority in the company. harley-davidson shares

slipping after the cfo announces he is stepping down. arkansas requiring a law to verify ages of social media users. this is the second state to restrict teen accounts. purell hand sanitizer maker is seeking a buyer in a deal worth $3 billion. and jeff bezos is no longer looking for a bid for the washington commanders. the current owner said it was exploring options, including a sale over the toxic work environment. gearing up for the trading day ahead, we have march ppi and cpi on tap this morning. delta will have the earnings report release in an hour. cnbc will speak with ed bastian at 7:10 a.m.

> another busy trading day ahead as we gear up for informa inflation with ppi figures dow off its highs from early this morning the next guest says the market has the potential to move higher and should break the 4,200 range. jeff kilburg is founder of kkm financial. jeff, great to see you. >> frank, great to be here you are right. it is coil for some time >> we are bringing in something new. the wex word of the day. this is a word you believe will describe the trading day ahead >> with all u.s. major indices positive from the futures, my word of the day, frank, is launch look at the market it islaunch. there are a lot of tensions, but

the reason this market is launching is because it is coil. we had a lot of consolidation and market contentions here we are getting poised to move higher. if you look at the strength index of the s&p 500, it is 58 when you see everything lining up inflation cooling and the fed minutes is allowing the market to release when you see the market this coil that torque in the engine. i love the negative sentiment. the market will move higher by 5% going through the end of may. >> something to watch. you are saying 4,200 we are at 4,125. i want to talk about the cooler than expected cpi. are there certain sectors or stocks you see benefitting from the inflation decelerating >> i think you are seeing inflation abate at a faster

rate that was in the cpi numbers yesterday. we saw year over year inflation come in from the consumer price index at 5% for the month of march. i think you have to be diversified. you have to own quality names. i talk about the essential the blue chip names. you have to have a dividend focus tilt novartis or jpmorgan chase you have to look for some yield. the first two i mentioned have a 4% yield jpmorgan chase is 3% yield you have to own high quality and essential names. the way i own these in the essential 40 is different from the other portfolio managers you have to have these in an equal weighted manner. still owning those names is critical, but if you own those names in 2022, you have to take them out to the wood shed. you have to have that exposed to tech you own it in a prudent manner

>> the word of the day is launch the fed minutes forecast yesterday best case is recession. how does that impact the market? >> the fed lost credibility in my perspective not the last year, but the last couple decades they will be right one of these years. i have to put that aside and trade the markets. look at the 10-year treasury at 3.4% dollar index at 101. you see a lot of metrics allowing this market to launch higher another favorite word of mine is lunch. i'll take space and put an "a" in there launch you see the market release i'm not saying it is a straits l straight line. i have a forecast end of the year price at 4,600. s if you look at the fed watch tool, a 33% chance they pause and do not move rates.

that allows the market to launch >> jeff kilburg, glass half full we have to wait and see. jeff, thank you for being here >> of course >> the dow is off the highs from early this morning the nasdaq is the best performer in the pre-market. that will do it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next thanks for watching. what do you get from the morgan stanley client experience? listening more than talking, and a personalized plan ♪ to guide you through a changing world. ♪

good morning new warning from the fed officials now expecting a mild recession beginning later this year details are straight ahead. earnings on the way. delta airlines reports this hour we will bring you the numbers and interview with ceo ed

bastian. cnbc learned twitter will let users access stocks and crypto and other financial a assets with a partnership with etoro. the feature rolling out today. it is thursday, april 13th ugh. the 15th in two days. "squawk box" begins now. good morning welcome to "suebquawk box" on cc i'm melissa lee along with joe kernen we have andrew ross sorkin live with us from seattle the >> melissa, we have a big show