we live in a dang rerous world. be invested in defense and aerospace stocks >> farmer jim? >> thermal fisher. there is a lot of good subsectors, and they are a high quality company. >> rob >> principal financial group we bought it two weeks ago >> i'll see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ hi, everybody. welcome to "the exchange." as we roll into the back half of this trading day with stocks moving to session highs. i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead. two data points for the slowdown camp this morning. producer prices cooling sharply and jobless claims rising. we'll talk about why the economic slowdown could be closer than you think. and the recent bank collapses touches off concerns about systemic risk in the financial sector what if it doesn't stop there? one fund manager will lay out

the issues he sees and bitcoin back above 30-k, but one key factor is missing. what it is and why it has one analyst concerned. but first, dom chu is back with today's market analysis. >> it's green for sure bitcoin above 30, weird day for crypto it's been green all day across the board. but we are at session highs right now. the s&p 500 sitting at 4126, up about 34 points. at the highs of the session, we were up 35, so sitting just near those session highs. again, a generally positive day. 2/3 of a percent for the dow industrials. 225 points, 33,860 and the nasdaq he up 177 points. one place that's driving that technology optimism today is

solar energy in general. check out what is happening here they are up $2.40, 3% gains there, driven by optimism around possibly a deutsche bank call. they are putting a catalyst buy recommendation on there. they think the earnings results coming out will show some positive upside. they're downgrading first solar, still up 1.5%, given the big runup. so an interesting call on solar has put a lot of focus on that today. solar, which is not shown here, the second best performer in the s&p, and one stock in particular that's far and away the worst performing stock in the entire s&p 500 is progressive corporation. you may recall it hit a record high the last week it's down 7% right now on the heels of an earnings report that missed analyst estimates revenues came in a little better

than expectations. but it's because they had an elevated loss ratio, more property casualty losses than some forecast for. but that is moving progressive down 7% after a huge -- you can see their stellar run over the last year. >> this has been the mplace to be just yesterday warren buffett was saying at least insurance is going to have a good year. >> il still has had a good year. if you look at the results more closely, the top line growth was there. the underwriting was there they got people to ensure stuff more they just took bigger losses given the events we have seen. so progressive, yes, it's steadily to the upside >> dom, thank you. let's call it two points for those expecting a recession here in the u.s inflation showing further signs of cooling in today's numbers on the heels of yesterday's consumer read. and jobless claims hit their

highest level in more than a year my next guest says the fed's hiking cycle is over let's bring in michelle garrard and c nbc's steve liesman. >> i think that's right. i don't know if it's two points for the recession camp, certainly for those of us who think the fed's heightening cycle is over. are we dug in that the fed couldn't go again in may you know, the bottom line is, it's like we felt last month you're really essentially at the peak, we talked about the numbers over the last couple of days, the tone of the fomc minutes yesterday. all of that has us a little more confident that you won't see another move in may. >> it's not the consensus. you okay going against that? do you think they're going to come around? >> again, i just think the minutes yesterday did suggest

several would have been in favor of pausing so i think sense then, the data hasn't been compelling and should give them more confidence that things are moving in the direction that they anticipate i think it's also just about going forward. the expectations about where we're headed i do think we're going to see weaker consumer spending data tomorrow there are signs of a bit more stress on the consumer side. we're all concerned about a credit crunch this year. if you think all of that is coming at you, you have already cone so much the inflation numbers are moving in the right direction really, what does another 25 do quite honestly and from that standpoint, it just seems like the path of perhaps least risk is to get -- >> steve, you coined the term pause posse. i'm curious what you make of the -- and i don't know whether

that's going to be this meeting or the next, but you see it forming. >> i am going to side with the consensus right now, only because the fed speak i've heard suggests that some people who are not necessarily dyed in the wool hawks, to mix a metaphor there, still seem to be talking about more work to do. it was a phrase mary daley used, and other folks think the fed ought to do more and go further. there is the consensus, and michelle is in that 30% camp which, you know, i have deep respect for. but i'm going to take a bit of a pass on saying which way and how, because to me, it's going to be determined about what we know about the banking system. we have the h41 coming out today, which i call the fed's salad buffet, which will tell us

how much banks are borrowing and give us a sense of the stress in the banking system and we'll watch bank earnings. remember, the staff yesterday in their decision to say that a mild recession is now the baseline, it was predicated on banking, on credit tightening. if that seems to be the case, then maybe guys like fed chair powell might side with the gerard camp and join the pause posse, so to speak i'm just not hearing it yet. >> how much are resales going to matter, steve? let me point out what michelle cited. bank of america uses consumer bank information that they have obviously. it echoes this thing we heard about slowing consumer spending in march lower car spending, minus 1.5% month on month lower tax refunds and expiration of snap benefits >> all of this, kelly, as i said

before, has to run through the inflation channel. they don't care if consumer spending is lower right now, as long as it leads to less inflation. they will not be concerned that there is less bank lending, unless it ends up lowering inflation. that is what is motivating the fed. there was a line in the minutes that said just that. so yes, we'll watch retail sales tomorrow very carefully. but watch the extent to which lower consumer spending ends up running through the inflation channel. >> michelle, what would you add to that? >> the fed does still think that demand is a leading indicator of inflation. so they will look to getting ahead of anticipating what is coming with respect to inflation by judging to the extent that demand is weakening. but steve, you made a great point with respect to the bank earnings, as well. all of us are looking very much to the color that we'll hear alongside those earnings releases, the results.

obviously, you know, what we are seeing in terms -- you know, what they're seeing about the impact on economic activity, on their own lending activity i think that will add a lot of information that all of us, you know, it may fine tune all of our expectations about where we are in this economic cycle >> oh, sure. we should be able to fill in a lot of details, even in just the next 24, 48 hours. thanks to you both, michelle and steve, for joining us. with the markets around session highs, the dow up 243. and steve has an interview with new chicago fed president ausan goolsbee tomorrow on "squawk box. the fed's rescue of svb and signature bank has calmed fears now.

matt is the lead manager of the morningstar five-star rated global fund, up about 7% year-to-date matthew, good to see you again i don't want to make it sound like you're coming in here to make this warning about a sovereign crisis, but tell me why this is on your radar now. >> because every time you see a bank failure, it is a bit of a flash warning there may be some systemic issues out there. you need to look at where the banks are experiencing the loss problems the interesting thing this cycle is it's in sovereign securities and mortgage backed securities, which are backed by the sovereign. it's also coincidentally, the area where we have seen -- after all of the post covid stimulus, we're seeing a situation where the irony is the banks, you know, sovereign debt is deemed to be something that requires zero risk, but it does have exposure as we have seen

and there are many examples throughout history of dramatic losses in sovereign paper when there is unexpected inflation. >> so just looking through the problems here, we have large deficits obviously, large current account deficits against this backdrop, though, is it true gold is one of your top holdholdings is this something that will demonstrate outperformance or what else do you see playing out here >> so gold is an important hedge for us the key with sovereign risk is that if you can't chart a course back to fiscal balance, and it's hard to see it because we have these big deficits at a time of full employment, then you risk confidence in the currency the other thing i would say is that, you know, the u.s.

requires foreign buyers, because of its deaf fideficit. when -- what we have seen over the last year is foreign central banks have stepped up their pace of gold purchases. and the authorities in the united states right now, you're presented with two difficult paths. either embark on a program of fiscal tightening, but that would tip the economy into a deeper recession ahead of an election year. so that seems unlikely so you can lead the fiscal spigots open and risk stagflation like the recession either recession, or a stagf stagflation, which would be a good backdrop for gold as a hedge asset. so even though gold is near its nominal highs, relative to the

level of u.s. money supply, or relative to the level of global equity, globe is still trading below its afternoons so we don't see gold peak out, so we don't try to hold these things with precision, because you can't. we recognize that gold is there to protect fwagainst the potenta last decade in stocks. but there are a number of factors that could support gold over the next 12, 18 months. >> the dynamic has been moving in your direction for sure you have a bunch of stocks, oracle is one of your big positions, exxon would you like to see this exxon/pioneer deal happen? >> let me just say on the stocks, if the problem we see today has been in the world of fixed nominal obligations, long-term treasuries, one of th attractive things about certain stocks, particularly those that control strong market positions

and stable end markets is they can generate 5%, 6% cash flow yield. their underlying earnings can increase with the broken gdp and the growth of the economy. and so you can have that combination of yields and growth, which protects you from unexpected inflation with respect to exxon, i would just make the point that they're in a position, their balance sheet is in great shape. so they can look at these options at this stage. i think you have a management team here that has a great sense of capital acumen. i would imagine in a situation like this, there could be meaningful synergies >> matt, thank you for your time today. >> thank you so much

normally, the big banks set the tone for earnings season we'll hear from jpmorgan tomorrow but the regional bank results could be more important, because they could answer if bank runs will pick up or not. wells fargo highlighting which banks are best positioned when it comes to deposits here to discuss is the analyst behind that note, jared shaw welcome back >> thank you >> let's start with the banks you think are well positioned here we're going to hear from pnc tonight or tomorrow. then we'll get a flood this is absolutely the number one question on investor's minds, where do you have the most confidence? >> so when you look at the mid cap banks, a lot of them have granular deposits that are less likely to see as much pressure we look at the banks that are more entrenched in the regions, in strong geographies, that we have more of the -- the mid cap

banks lend to these people and they get the full relationship whereas the largest banks don't. so we think that these deposits have a propensity to stay. out of our group, we highlighted webster financial, first interstate and columbia that should see decent deposit flows with a granular base and should benefit. one thing i point out, the average account size for the mid cap banks is $41,000 silicon valley was $1.1 million, first republic at $200,000 those are concentrated deposit bases. the smaller bank is much more g granular >> is there a permanent hit to earnings power all of those in the green today, but we know they're still below where they were presvb

is there a sense no matter which way the wind blows this quarter, their deposits will be much more costly now the future earnings power is going to be lessened >> for sure. so the deposits and also the funding costs are going up we assume that these banks are drawing down on other sources of wholesale funding, whether that's the fhlb or even the fed discount window. those are going to increase the cost of funds. we'll see banks sitting on additional cash on their balance sheets when you look at the actual cost of deposits, those have been going up we assume that the data on those is still -- the terminal data is roughly where they were before and we may accelerate to that faster than before >> so finally, why do names -- i mean, bank of the ozarks comes up for its office exposure

why these three in particular in terms of places people might want to watch? >> sure. so all these banks have higher loans and deposit ratios and less flexibility in terms of seeing deposits flow out they're all wholesale deposits so you are going to see likely higher funding costs at those banks. they're not going to have much choice as you look at that deposit ratio, they have bigger need for funding in the immediate term. that will put pressure on earnings, as well. >> these dates will be circled on the earnings calendar jared, thank you for joining us today. good to see you. >> thanks a lot. coming up, not just tech rallying big time this year. the restaurant stocks have staged a comeback, as well we'll talk about the name citi says could climb higher, including this one up 23% since january. and it's not typical for

companies to be accused of underspending, but that's what one energy watcher says is gngoi on in the oil space. more on what that means for oil prices and deal making "the exchange" is back right after this like this. getting this beer... all over the world... right when they need it. yes, with ibm consulting, ai-powered software can help automate your supply chain— so beer can be ordered, produced and delivered more efficiently. so happy hours keep going. salud! and the beer keeps flowing. that's the automation solution ibm and a global beer company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws

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that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. welcome back to "the exchange." while everyone is focusing on the big tech rally we have seen this year, the restaurant stocks have been quietly rallying too chipotle, a name we just teased, up more than 20%

brinker up more than 15% that's just two of them. and analysts at citi think there's more potential upside, despite all the negative concern. joining me to explain is john tower. good to have you welcome. >> thanks, kelly, for having me. >> is this just a dead cat bounce off of a bad 2022, or is there something going on here where people see improving fundamentals >> there's a few factors at play first, last year omicron was going to be a known tail wind coming in. but favorable weather kicked it off into january, and across the u.s. for much of february, as well so i think that was a boone to the restaurant industry. it helped quite a bit. on top of that, you have fairly high levels of pricing across the space that is helping quite a bit. but taking a step back, too, thinking about what's happening from a macro perspective, we

have seen historically around times of consumer duress, particularly during recessions where there has been a fairly powerful wallet fair shift between durables and services, specifically restaurants what we have noticed in the past five recessions in the u.s., it's been about a 200 basis point or so average share shift between durables and restaurants to the benefit of restaurants. and so that might be taking place as well right now. not certain, but what we have seen is that the industry has done quite well to start 2023. we don't necessarily see reasons for that to let up any time soon comparisons get slightly more challenge in the back half of the year, but there's no red flags popping up immediately suggest thing is going to slow down >> just to rattle off the highlights, mcdonald's up 9% in a month, red robin up, texas

road house has doubled in a month. restaurant brands up 10% jack in the box, chipotle. we were talking about more signs of a downturn and how card spending is showing pressure for march. on the other hand, we are talking about restaurants with higher prices and super discretionary purchases. why is this area, or is it just the big chains holding up? this seems like it's flying in the face of other evidence >> yeah, look, it goes back to that wallet share shift. i think consumers -- or jobs are the most important thing, right? ultimately, jobs have been hanging in there relatively well wages have continued to grow and that is -- if consumers have tapped out on spending on durables, simply put, the idea of upgrading something in your home, you have already either done that during covid or maybe you're starting to look at the environment and say, i don't necessarily need to do that right now, something that is a big ticket item.

however, i have some money in my pocket i'm going to go out and treat myself to a restaurant visit, whether that's your quick service operator or your sitdown restaurant >> let's talk chipotle why these two in particular? >> yeah. we'll start with chipotle. frankly, their football numbers that we follow for this space, and this brand looks very healthy to start 2023. we think that will carry over into the second quarter. specifically they launched a product in mid march we think will be a very strong product for them you can see it in the data two, they're working maniacally on getting everything teed up, such that the second quarter will likely try and get back to levels they saw precovid under

brian nickel those two factors alone will help the stores. they still have growth in the high single, low double digit clip so they have put up phenomenal returns. chipotle, they're still only less than halfway there, and we haven't discussed the idea of them getting outside of the u.s. >> you know, brinker, we have run out of time, so it's great to have you on today >> thanks, kelly as we head to break, new reports circumstance brating on what is being called one of the largest leaks of classified domes cuntin decades, raising concerns about ukraine's battlefield strategy and angering allies. the latest how it happened and where it might have come from,

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welcome back to "the exchange." we're near session highs the dow is up 274. and we have seen markets rallying all throughout the session on the back of the jobless claims data. nasdaq is leading the way, up 1.6% today take a look at shares of delta airlines, down about a percent now after missing on the top and bottom lines it's the second revenue miss in three quarters but the ceo brushed off those concerns this morning, highlighthighligh ing delta's strong cash flow >> the biggest story of all is our cash flow. ten highest booking days within

our history. so this franchise is in tact the health of the franchise is strong, and we're getting ready for a strong summer and spring season >> the street is assured by delta's projection of record bookings shares are pacing for the fifth negative week, but hanging on to a 1% gain for the year now to washington with new reports circulatingabout that huge leak of classified government information kayla? >> reporter: kelly, two u.s. officials tell nbc news the suspected leaker of troves of classified documents is a 21-year-old who served in the intelligence wing of the massachusetts national air guard. an arrest is imminent. "the new york times" first reported the identifying information about him, who served as the leader of a chat

group, with about 20 to 30 other members, mostly teenage boys, and that a group member began distributing classified documents from his job starting several months ago those documents later ended up on other threads, and earlier this morning, joe biden said a breakthrough in the investigation was close and said this when asked about his concerns with the situation. >> i'm not concerned about the -- i'm concerned that it happened, but there is nothing contemporaneous that i'm aware of >> reporter: the fact that the u.s. government was not aware of the leaks until just before press reports surfaced raises serious questions about how much more information could have gotten out there when asked whether the leak was contained, a spokesman john kirby said, we truly do not know kelly? >> hard to imagine it's contained when it's been

circulating for months and some of the documents appeared to be doctored and shared by russians so assessing the legitimacy is going to be difficult of each individual report. and also strangely, some looked like they had been folded and unfolded and had gorilla glue marks on them. and the larger picture here, they're revealing serious deficiencies in ukraine's air defense and capabilities to carry out this string initiative and the need for a lot more support from the west. so between that and then south korea, there's already been a lot of fallout here. >> even though the president is trying to down play those concerns you mentioned south korea. in one of those alleged documents, there was a discussion about whether south korea would, in fact, be providing much-needed artillery to ukraine some of these documents suggested that south korea was torn over whether to do that, and other leaders had been

making comments about the possibility of that. but a lot of these allies, when asked about the documents and what it means about the relationship between the u.s. and these countries, they say there is a lot of question about the legitimacy, that they have been altered, that in some cases there's misinformation included in the documents so it's going to be a while before we have these nailed down it's going to clearly create a lot of discussion and policy processes within the white house when they figure out what is known about their strategy in ukraine and whether they need to change some of that now that the information is out there >> exactly maybe that is the only way we're going to know the impact that this has, if we start to see big reports of a lot more missile assistance or aircraft assistance to ukraine. >> possibly, kelly although we should note while there is willingness by some other countries like france to send aircraft to ukraine, there is still not a willingness within the biden administration to do that that could change over the

coming months of their pressure campaign by some of these other countries as the war goes on beyond a year, a year and a half and it just drags on but it's hard to see how joe biden's resolve could be softened on that front of course, anything could happen >> kayla, thank you very much for brings us up to speed on this story today coming up, oil is pacing for a fourth straight sivepoti week. we'll get some top picks in the energy space and talk about potential deal making. that ooex next on "the exchange." are you a certified financial planner™? - i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey!

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welcome back to "the exchange." warren buffett just said we're going to "need oil for a lot, lot longer" and this comes as deal making in the oil space may be picking up steam, with exxonmobil eyeing pioneer, and if exxon makes a move, could chevron be next? let's ask my next guest, an expert in the oil space and will tell us where he thinks this is heading. stan major, good to see you

again. welcome back >> good to see you >> i know you focus on the small players, we'll talk about that later, but in the broad, sort of canvas here, do we need this consolidation, why do you think it would happen, and what would the impact be? >> sure, consolidation makes a ton of sense if the energy industry if you look at the u.s., there is a lot of operators in each bas basin. you have 20, 30 operators in each basin a lot of them are smaller players. as you get bigger, the operations get more efficient. you know, trucks driving by each other, canduplication processes. so consolidation makes sense it's very good for shareholders, because when you combine the two, the combination is more profit itable. usually what holds these things

up, sometimes it's the board of directors, but it makes a lot of sense to consolidate >> we talked about this yesterday. some said would a biden administration allow for big deals in the energy space? bill joked hey, if it raises the oil price up, that's kind of the goal any way do you think that would be an outcome here >> it's possible in general, when companies consolidate, the production can be lower than it was originally with the two companies separately but i would say in general, this is a commodity business. there shouldn't be any trade restrictions or monopoly issues. so it makes a lot of sense regulators shouldn't have an issue with it. >> you are among many concerned about underinvestment in this area investors are trying to benefit from that in the near term, but no one wants to see oil at $200

because we don't have the supply although it's bearish trading behavior over the past six months any way, it makes you wonder if those assumptions are too bearish to think about >> with all the talk about a weak economy, electric vehicle sales hurting oil demand, work from home, we are at an all-time high in oil consumption right now. so we're consuming more than we ever have with those factors so oil demand is growing populations grow people get wealthier, they consume more energy. the issue is, with rising demand, we're not spending enough on the supply the easiest way to think about that is compare 10, 0, 30 years ago with where we are today. 10 years ago, we had a smaller market and spending more money so 2023 versus 2013, we are a

15% more larger oil market but spending to% less. that means we are probably underspending as demand grows, and supply, we're seeing a lot of issues, whether it's in opec, productivity issues in the permian, which is growing. it could be very difficult from a supply/demand perspective. the issue becomes, most oil projects have a long lead time if we get into a situation where we are undersupplied, it is difficult to get out of it >> sure. why are stocks like these still your favorites >> sure. if you look at how much free cash flow they're earning, approximately for earnings, they're throwing off roughly in this commodity price range, without a spike, they have about -- we would estimate 14% free cash flow yields. in the case of apa, they have $16 a share in assets that are

currently not producing earnings we call them hidden assets tax laws carry forward, an lng contract not priced in those things all add up to make it even more attractive. pdc is a colorado operator generally it will trade at a discount because it's in colorado we think the regulatory issues are manageable so this compounds that undervaluation so with those high free cash flow yields, they're buying back stocks, so it's compounding and you protect yourself from a spike in the oil prices. >> you make a compelling case. it's good to have you back >> great to be here. thank you, kelly still ahead, amazon went from one of the worst performers on the s&p yesterday to one of the best today up nearly 4% why investors are cheering ceo&y jassy.

and let's check on shares of tupper ware, surging 26% today on rumor that ryan cohen may be involved after a tweet that he was on the phone with this brand. this is after tune tupper ware e it could go out of business. last february, you recall bill miller right here on "the exchange" said he was bullish on the stock. over the weekend, he said in an email, i'm continuely amazed how off you can spectacularly wrong in this business and still do very well. we'll be right back after this

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his annual moves, a cloud strategy, cutting underperforming business units, saying amazon needs to do better in groceries and our own steve kovak is here. >> let's talk about the cloud. he had some interesting things to say about aws let's have a listen to what he said and we'll talk about that >> other times that investment strategy leads to things that are maybe not as obvious, aws is a good example of that i think that fewer people might have guessed we would build a lower orbit satellite. but if you look at the need, there are hundreds of millions of households and businesses that have no connectivity to the internet >> the idea here is they're going to continue investing in things that might seem a little crazy right now. space satellites

they're going to go down on aws, which is their profit center what was interesting to me what he said about aws and throughout the letter was, look, our customers need to spend less, just like we need to optimize, they need to optimize too, and we're willing to eat some revenue growth if it means to hang on to those customers >> this is a clear choice that they are making to help their customers spend less on amazon cloud offerings. i understand the point, you get people to ratchet down and they're less likely to walk away but these are the essentials that people need arguably the post cloud services for their business do you want to help them get better at doing less with your core product >> we keep talking about efficiency, that's what that is. if they don't do that, the customers will go to google, micr microsoft. so that is what they are trying to protect against

we have the biggest market share, we need to hang on to that if it means giving up revenue growth in the short term, the hope being, and the longer matterm they're going to spend more. that's what he is saying >> so interesting is when that can start to happen, when people get those opportunities. >> and you can only do that with cloud. before you had to do it on prime with these big server in your office here you can adjust to your needs in the cloud world >> and they need to get better at groceries, he said. core retail, they're working on the profitability issues there but the other thing to highlight is what he said about their ai chips. we talk about what are the ai mays yes, it's buried within a much larger business, but how significant is this, that they can now help customers with these issues >> it's early. it's interesting, because these

new ai products, only a few people are using it, like deloitte is one of their first customers, but they're positioning themselves like the switzerland of ai. let's say you're going to start a startup, go t google, sam thing, they have their own ai stuff, so you want to go to the neutral platform here, and that's going to be aws. >> they're working ai, aren't they, amazon >> exactly large language models that you can tap into if you want to build on that and you can start your own startup, you can do that, and there is irony, when retailers started to move to the cloud, walgreen's is a perfect example, they won't go to the competitor amazon and give them money, they will go to microsoft, there is an interesting dynamic in cloud world where you don't want to give your competitor money but you need someone and you go to the other guy. >> you can stay in business because you're so diversified and you don't have to go somewhere else steve, thanks. amazon, one of the best stocks

today, up nearly 4%. bitcoin and coinbase, huge gains this year. coin shares more than doubling one analyst warns investors that crypto could be in for a rough awakening. details next. dow is up 306. we're back after this. nasdaq is up nearly 2% lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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welcome back to the exchange bitcoin has surged back above 30,000 this year and you'd think that would be a positive for one of the last-remaining crypto exchanging, coinbase, but average daily trading volumes on the platform are actually lower so far in april than in march. and it is a sign that retail traders aren't buying in here now with more is analyst, dan, welcome >> my pleasure. >> i love what you're unpacking here there is a lot more to the story. what do you think is going on with this cat and mouse game and crypto chase with boitcoin up to 30 >> i think basically the analogy is casino and what is happening is big institutional investors who have a vested interest in retail investors coming into the trading world are pumping oxygen into the casino floor, hoping to

lure in retail traders, but retail traders are really smart, they're not biting and coinbase volumes are basically a reflection of retail trading and it is basically dead that's what is happening it is not working. >> it is so fascinating to me. the way the pandemic has created two warring communities where institutionals are shorting something and retail goes and, you know, kills them on the upside, and now we have institutions trying to bring retail traders back into crypto and you say it is not working. why? >> they've gotten really smart i think what happens, and had is a great question you're asking, you know, back to the dot-com bubble or any other bubble, once retail gets burnt with something, like they got burnt with crypto going down, it takes years for retail to come back. in this situation, because we're dealing with air, and those cryptocurrencies, those tokens are basically air and in my view they're worth nothing, and retail has gotten smart, they have been burnt, they don't want to come back and lose money and they're not biting and that's

why you see the bifurcation between bitcoin and volume. >> i still know some of the bulls in this crypto the crypto bulls most of them say we're buy and hold at this point we have what we have we're not buying more and we're also not selling they say look at ether, that's where all of the excitement is, the upgrade, it is over 2 k again today, what about the idea that there doesn't have to be a lot of trading activity because people are going to hold on to this like gold forever. >> everyone who sur vives to tell the story is bitcoin, but it doesn't work for coinbase, this is important, we have a $30 price target and i think the stock will get cut in half coinbase makes money when people come in and out of the casino and put money on the, you know, on the roulette. when no one is trading, coinbase doesn't make money i think that's the issue you can hold it forever, and hopefully it goes up, but coinbase is not going to make money in that situation. >> institutions are not as lucrative as retail traders. they demand much smaller margins and that kind of thing where do we go from here in the

story? what other levers can coinbase pull, for instance >> i think what they will do is they have a notice from the s.e.c., i think they're very busy right now defending some of those businesses, right? so they're on the defense right now, so i don't think they can do a lot, there's not much they can do the staking is under pressure. alt coins is under pressure. i think they're pretty much in trouble. and the stock going up today just makes me wonder what, you know, why people are actually buying this today, because you know it is going to be an awakening. so i think they're out of options. >> we're clear where you stand you anger the crypto community, with these remarks >> thank you for your time today. >> that does it for the exchange, everybody. coming up on "power lunch," the big business of little hands, we show you how tiktok is shaking up the watch industry. and tyler is standing by there he is. on theth se ts ic oeridofhiquk break. rtainty? or opportunity.

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welcome to "power lunch," everybody. alongside kelly, i'm tyler mathisen, glad you could join us on this warm and spring-like thursday at least it is here. coming up, money and politics, the biden administration regulations are under fire auto companies unhappy with the new emissions rules and they're not the only ones. and a flew business lobbying group forming a chamber of commerce alternative set to push back on what it calls future killing tax policies. big changes in the employment picture remember when older workers were retiring in droves some of them are coming back to the office and employers can't wait to hire them. also, working from home could be another relic. jpmorgan demanding some workers come back to the office five days a week, we get to all of that but first let's check markets. stocks at session highs. dow up 311 nasdaq leading the way u