♪ good morning we welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines global oil demand is set to rise this year as it warns production cuts will hit hard. and luxury stocks driving gains while european equities edge higher overall after better

than expected producer price data stateside austrian national bank governor bemoans inflation saying inflation could prompt a slight rate hike from the ecb. >> i think things could change and 50 could be in the ballpark. whatever is after depends on conditions. and protests rock the streets of paris with protesters storming the lvmh headquarters. happy friday warm welcome to "street signs."

let's kick off with oil demand a record 1.1 million barrels a day. in the latest report, the group says not oecd countries accounts for 90% of growth. it says extra cuts by opec will push supplies down by 400,000 barrels a day by the end of the year with the production growth slowing dramatically let's look at the price of oil lower in brent and wti $86 and $82. we have head of oil and energy at iaea. a please ure to have you on the program. let's talk about the surprise cuts announced by the opec plus nations a few weeks back

elaborate the impact the cuts have going forward the rest of the year >> thank you and good morning. the cuts announced by opec means we were expecting to shift in the second half of the year. now we expecting the cuts in may and the market to shift into deficit bigger losses in the sen half of the year russia extended the planned cuts through the end of the year and global oil supply will fall by 400,000 barrels a day after the increase in u.s. and brazil and canada and norway which failed to offset the supply from opec countries. with oil demanded rising and continuing to increase through

the remainder of the year, we expect inventory draws and pressure on price. >> interesting, toril, to hear you say you don't expect prices to level what would ignite the u.s. shale production >> what we are seeing in the u.s. as opposed to the earlier period when the u.s. shale sector prices means we see the constrained labor market and frack crews limiting the upside. the companies are now prioritizing investor returns and buying back debt instead of piling into money and exceeding free cash flows to boost production it is a more balanced spending picture if you want.

even so, the u.s. will still account for significant portion of growth this year. the shale sector will grow by 600,000 barrel a day on average. that is not close to the levels we saw in previous growth periods. it is not enough to offset the declines that the opec plus countries announced taking effect in may. >> opec has justified the move to cut production on the basis they see down side risk. yesterday, opec flagged downside risk for the reason for the propduction cuts what do you anticipate in demand and in particular what is the signal out of china? >> it is true that oil demand, especially in the oecb has been

weak global oil demand contracted in the fourth quarter last year and again for the second quarter at the start of this year what we are seeing at the start of this year with the reopening of china, we saw strong demand from china and india oil was up 800,000 barrels a day from a year ago with the lack luster demand in developed countries. we see weakness in the industrial activity. the service sector is holding up well that is fuelling gas demand and jet demand through the remainder of the year, china is accounting for the growth jet fuel on the global level is expected to rise more than 1 billio

million barrels, including china. we don't expect strong growth, but the recovery from covid has run its course and the economic outlook and industrial activity is remaining weak. from china and neighboring countries keeping the oil demand at record levels through the end of the year and that is the basis for our balances as we look forward >> your report notes an interesting development in russia russian oil exports climbed to the highest level since 2020 where is the oil going >> we are seeing the embargoes for the eu countries on crude and product are both in place. we are seeing exports to the countries have come almost down from 5 million barrels a day before the war to 500,000 or 600,000 in the latest month. obviously, china and india and

turkey have stepped up to take the crude oil. they account for 80% of the russian crude. we see some of the products go to new destinations in africa and middle east and latin america and europe finding supplies from different sources in the u.s. and india. there is a big reshuffling the trade. now looking forward, russia has signalled it will cut production by 500,000 barrels in march. that will take place in april and may as they go into maintenance. we will see how it plays out so far, the g7 price cap is

continuing the russian trade and allowing the flows to go to markets. >> toril, thank you for elaborating for us now the big data from yesterday was the u.s. ppi the producer price index showed prices fell 0.5% in march. analysts expected no change on the month. ppi rose 2.76% year on year. that was the smallest increase since january of 2021. a sharp drop from february's 4.9% falling goods prices and energy costs helped fuel the downward slide. this was a hugely important report it led to the return of risk appetite to wall street and confirmed the idea that inflation is cooling that's what the suggestion was from the headline inflation print from the cpi report. the previous session was core inflation is sticky, but this

adds to ammunition that would suggest that inflation is cooling and the fed may have more reason to pause sooner rather than later. as for european markets, the stoxx 600 is up .50% yesterday, the stoxx 600 rallied for the fourth day in a row. gaining 0.4% for the week overall. stoxx 600 was up 1.1% coming into today's session european equities had a decent run of late. as for the region, the split has been interesting this week we are higher across the board the standout market was france cac 40 outperforming strong in the luxury stocks after the lvmh sales report. the cac 40 up .30% we have .50% for the dax similar for ftse mib ftse 100 is up .30%.

rally in equities. we are seeing the real estate sector outperform. we are up 2% we had uk home builders performing very well after hsbc with the series of upgrades. their view that the downturn in the uk real estate market is already priced in. on the downside, insurance pulling back 1%. oil and gas underperforming we had big moves in the market euro closed 110. we are continuing higher up 12 basis points 110.57 a huge amount for the european central bank a lot of debate over 25 or 50 basis points for the ecb then a lot of debate what happens after.

thankfully, joumanna has been busy in d.c. talking about ecb. policymakers warned of the banking turmoil on the central bank rate hiking path. the governing council member robert holzmann says this is weighing on his hawkish outlook. and meanwhile, credit conditions in the euro area have tightened. holzmann argued that the ecb would need to continue the 50 basis point rate hike telling joumanna recent events shifted his views. >> his comments two months ago were well before things that happened in the u.s. and switzerland. and if things remain unchanged

means the inflation rate remains high and particularly the core inflation. if the rest of the economic conditions do not deteriorate, then we need to think about more increases than what we currently have things have changed in the meantime and when this happened, we had the experiences in the u.s. and switzerland what we have are the experiences of the monetary conditions are claimed to have firmed up. credit is sparse compared to before now credit is given out and rates mean we have a different situation. as a result, i think things change with 50 being in the

ballpark the next time what happens afterwards depends on the conditions. >> sounds like you are turning cautious >> i take the changes into account and what we experienced with the bank crisis in the u.s. and switzerland and this led to the change of outlook. if the outlook changes, we have to change view >> i'll comie back to the question on the banking situation. this up ccoming meeting, colleagues said the next core inflation print is very significant because so far core inflation has not peaked yet in the eurozone what would it take for the committee to change their minds on this side of the next rate hike if socore inflation comes in flt would that be enough to go down 25 basis points or would it

still warrant 50 >> i think the persistence of core inflation is definitely one of the elements which will have to be takeninto account becaus core inflation is a great predictor of future headline inflation. it is not the only part. what matters is the situation on the financial markets. if the situation of the financial markets firms up and becomes more difficult for credit, it needs to be taken into account by how much depends on the environment. >> now the italian central bank governor told cnbc there could be a lag between rate decision and the real impact on the eurozone economy >> there is one-to to one and a

half years it is still uncertain. in the meantime, many other things happen. this is the baseline then we have to really wait and see all of the other factors that matter. >> final question for you on the side of the balance sheet, the goal is to start reducing it could you imagine a situation where the reduction of the balance sheet becomes the primary tool and the ecb stops leaning on interest rate hikes >> we have said that it is to be well defined way and measured way. if it is measured and well defined and expected, i don't see really major problems. obviously, if it is abrupt and all of a sudden, you need to have the important measures for

increasing the liquidity of the system, then the rifsk is high >> the central bank governor and member of the council said the ecb has more work to do on rate hikes. >> we are trying to attack the core inflation you know, we can't do anything about energy prices. we are very upset to see that inflation start anchoring and wage earners would say we don't believe it is coming down. we lost wage increases same for france. we are worried about the core inflation not yet peaking. we are expecting it to peak. we haveto show that we are serious about continuing to stop this monster we will be raising for a -- we are data driven, we say.

that's true. it is a question of 25 or 50 which is difficult >> do you think that is the set up for the next meeting whether to go 25 or 50 >> that will depend on the discussion the general feeling once the core inflation is still on the upward, you still have to continue your mandate and fight that inflation and showing to people and world that you are keen to do that. whether because of the situation or because of the bank issue and so on, whether this would modify you and you won't go for another 50 this 50 at peak is something we have seen in this sort of trend, so to speak. normally, it would be 10 basis

points or 20 basis points. we started from a low level. below zero to go up to 350 basis points that's what we did and we still have some way to go on the rate increase. >> when you think where we could end up, obviously, ecb is data dependent. the market is sitting around 75. >> you could feel it we reached the balance one, inflation has peaked and core inflation is expected to peak as well you could see, you know, the final push which is not that far. we start playing around bilalane that shows you are reaching that point. forget about projections which

say in 2024 or 2025 will reach -- we are talking about now. you could see the forces on both sides making a difficult decision more and more difficult each time that's a good sign that the end of the tunnel is not that far. >> meanwhile, the latvia central governor who is also on the council refuses to reject the50 basis point hike at the next meeting. >> the current moment, i would not exclude 50 basis points. by all means, interest rates need to go up. there is risk of not doing enough in my view. >> i get the sense that the committee now seems to be moving away from clips of 50 basis point increments and settling more going ahead -- i don't know what will happen the next

meeting, but this meeting and onward -- settiling in the range of 25? >> at some point you have to start slowing down you want to find the appropriate terminal point during this cycle. of course, it may involve smaller steps on taking a pause at some point. at least i don't see any reason to slow down any time soon in terms of interest rate increases because inflation does remain high we have seen improvement in terms of the headline, but core is still very persistent >> the chairman of the bank of lithuania struck a cautious tone, but ruled out a pause at the next meeting. >> we see a sharp reduction of the headline inflation, but that's on the account of the

energy prices. on the other hand, core inflation is sticky. as sticky as many people expected actually, i don't think we are at the peak at the moment. it will peak this year for sure. whether it is next month or two months after two months, we'll see. the most important thing here is not about the peak, but sticky and stickier than people expected and that's what worries me. >> if the core inflation number is higher than expected when it comes out in a couple weeks, do you think that would push most of the committee toward 50 basis point hike >> i think it is premature to judge whether it is 25 or 50 what i believe that this is still not done with the inflation.

we can pause in may. coming up on "street signs," protests rock paris again as demonstrators fight back against the most iconic brand. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "street signs. let's check on big movers in the corporate space. boeing warned deliveries will be delayed after a supplier used a non standard process the planemaker said a significant number of jets would be delayed one to watch in the open alstop announced the cfo will leave at the beginning of september. the move raised eyebrows since the acquisition which has yet to be fully integrated. it has not met the midterm targets for 2025 meanwhile n the luxury space, sales at hermes rose 28%

in the first quarter well above market expectation. the brand behind the birken handbag has seen demand in china. they have more traffic in the u.s. where other rivals struggle to maintain momentum. demfrench demonstrators tooo the streets to protest against the french government pension reform program the constitutional court is expected to deliver the verdict today on whether emmanuel macron acted constitutionally in bypassing parliament the footage you are watching shows crowds heading into the offices of lvmh and the boss opponents have called on the government to impose higher taxes on the rich rather than force the public to work to the age of 64. german foreign minister has started a two-day state visit to

china. warning a change in taiwan status is unacceptable this comes days after french president macron received criticism for saying europe should not follow the u.s. agenda on the issue. the dutch finance minister spoke to joumanna at the spring meeting in washington, d.c. and said she is concerned about increased fragmentation. >> i share the group or the alliance of the cautious one the variables are significant if you look at fragmentation and core inflation in many countries and uncertainty of oil prices and our collective ability to assist households to see through the difficult period it is still uncertain and the recent banking crisis or our ability to avert a banking

crisis has been very important we are not out of the woods, i would say. >> geopolitical fragmentation is something that keeps popping up. i'm curious to hear how netherlands is thinking about it because netherlands is weighing in on export bans on the key technology or chip technology to china. those are considered to be barriers in the environment where we talk about geopolitical fragmentation. >> that is true. that fragmentation is an important one. it was picked up at the last session at the imf meeting we look at it differently. fragmentation is a result of sanctions which we impose d on the economy due to the war in ukraine. that is a different matter protectionist measures is a different matter with highly

sensitive technologies and we see as a matter of security. that say difference. i like to listen to the director general of the wto she spoke of reglobalization maintaining open trade and having appropriate measures and wto compliant. looking at the way to reengineer globalization. that is the right way forward. that takes us a step away from discussions on re-shoring. we need to be certain of supply chains and we need securities and bolster and boost global effort in that regard and not forget the regions we will take a quick break coming up on the program, ethereum surges and taking other cryptocurrencies with it we will tell you why and why our next guest who says 30k is the start of something special for bitcoin.

welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines

global oil demanded is set to rs this year as iaea warns production cuts are hitting hard. the cac 40 is gaining with european equities edge higher after better than expected ppi stateside. austrian national bank governor robert holzmann says recent turbulence financially could trigger a strong hike. >> 50 could be in the ballpark next time. what happens afterwards depends. pension reform protests rock the streets of paris with people storming lvmh headquarters

we are just over an hour and a half into friday's trading session. let's get a check on the equities higher across the board. fairly broad based rally ftse 100 up .30% similar for the cac 40 and dax and ftse mib and smi a lag in the spanish market. the cac 40 has been the star performer over the course of the week driven by an update from lvmh that came out after close on wednesday. that setting the stage for a strong rally in luxury names yesterday. we are seeing continued bid for luxury this morning. in fx markets, we had big movers euro closing above 110 for the first time in a year the dollar index retreating. it wasn't a story of broad based dollar weakness, but investors pricing in a 50 rate hike at the next meeting and consider what comes afterwards there is a debate if the ecb

goes for 25 or 50. u.s. futures we have a bit of a pull back in store. a bit of profit after return to wall street. all three indices closed in the green yesterday. vix closed at the lowest level since january of 2022. risk on in u.s. markets. today is a little pull back as we now brace for u.s. bank earnings we will go into that later in the program. turning to cryptocurrencies. ethereum trading at the highest level after a 10% bump on the back of the upgrade in shanghai which allows withdraws to validate and secure transactions on the blockchain. here is crypto we are higher across the board ethereum up 4.7% bitcoin up 1%. it is well over $30,000. a key mark

to discuss crypto in detail, we have the president of international of digital assets with us. >> thank you for having me here. >> exciting week to talk crypto. >> it is always exciting talking crypto >> let's kickoff with bitcoin and then get to ethereum bitcoin staged a recovery. trading above the $30,000 mark whocmark who is buying? >> there is a renewed institut institutional interest i don't think the institutions are immune to the same human investors. the fear of missing out. up up 82% since december. i think it is institutional money coming in. i think a lot of family office

and privating wealth money is coming back into it. >> for a while, the bitcoin proponents were arguing it was an inflation hedge something good to buy in an inflationary environment is that part of the bullish narrative on bitcoin >> i think the problem is there was a lot lot of data points early on the more reaction we see the market with bitcoin and look at how bitcoin behaves. there was a lot of talk of the correlation for the equity markets. it was a short data point. this is a certain degree without overstating that bitcoin is showing that it has some of the characteristics of a safe haven of a digital gold. we hear that a lot

it is a focal point for those concerned of the banking situation. especially those in the united states. >> you can argue it bounced back with u.s. tech you see the benefit from the states it has tended to move with u.s. tech strongly. >> i think there's two reasons for that one is the investors who are most knowledgeable about digital assets are tech savvy. it is an asset class based on technology secondly, it highlights the blockchain technology and how it revolutionizes the markets, but lots of other industries >> let's ask about the ethereum and shanghai upgrade was it successful? >> there has been a lot of focus on the release of liquidity of

ethereum into the marketplace and should drive down prices debate about that which hasn't happened the more important point is i'm talking to institutions, call them crypto curious, and one of the clear benefits of the thing is that there is now a clear liquidity profile for ethereum they know where they can put it in the asset allocation or liquidity profile. it is a hugely important characteristic coming out of this we will see the next foot drop >> let's ask about the interest in the whole crypto space. you came from traditional asset management and shifted to d digital asset management i speak to people who are skeptical about this space what do you say? >> i say it remind -- the reason

i got involved in it is a light bulb went off and i saw similarities to the early days of hedge funds a plethora of players. some not so good some bad actors. some incompetent and some really talented that is a natural characteristic of the early stage of the financial evolution in the market i think what we're seeing now is that weeding out we're seeing the flight to quality. the wave has benefitted from s.e.c. regulated and having avoided the pitfalls happen in the industry i would caution you to remember one thing. many of the crises that happened in digital assets and crypto have been centralized businesses not really blockkchain basi businesses it remains a solid thesis.

it will continue to grow. >> mateo, i hope to have more conversations. president of the international wave digital assets. let's get to beijing where the leader of china, xi jinping, is meeting with brazil's president. we are looking now at live shots of the meeting a meeting with brazilian president da silva they are looking to boost ties this is the story in terms of what they're hoping to get out of this meeting. it has been a couple of busy weeks for xi jinping meeting with president macron and the controversial comments which came out over what was a few sessions you can hear the sound coming through as the leaders make their way down the red carpet.

coming up on the show, we get a glimpse of the spillover of the crisis on american le lenders. we will talk about what to expect next. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labels it's my secret ingredient

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welcome back to "street signs. ecb policymakers warned about the turmoil on the central bank rate hiking path the council member robert holzmann says this is weighing on the hawkish outlook for interest rates holzmann told joumanna he is concerned about the fallout from the banking crisis >> we have seen after the fallout in switzerland and u.s. that the situation in europe stabilized quickly first with deutsche bank they chose the system which is working. frankly speaking, the system in europe has been set up in a way

which would not allow something like the silicon valley bank to happen in europe now because all banks, whatever the size, they have to live by the deposit rules which is not the case in the u.s. >> you have the knock-on effect of credit lending and credit availability that is the concern? >> exactly this is a concern because if the increase of interest rates, that means sttightening of capacity giving credits if this takes place to the other measures because the market is more cautious, we don't need to do as much on the interest rates. it is a trade off which requires we need to understand better what is happening on the markets and how much the lending conditions are on the financial markets and the reading is

somewhat inconclusive. it is firming up, but not as much as some feared. >> cnbc asked the maltese central bank member if this will affect the lending in europe >> there are differences in the u.s. and eu. in the eu, more faithful to the reform and implemented reforms then the banks are more strong although they are facing this issue of assets falling in value, but they have got enough liquidity to put their minds at rest globally in the u.s., depending how the small banks would be more regulated, we still have to see. they will have repercussions you cannot ignore them you know, it is a question of

the trust of the people finally to make the judgment if they will have an effect, it will be sort of doing the work of monetary policy they were to suppress and the effect of inflation. >> the european commissioner for financial conditions told cnbc the crisis may be over, but still remain cautious. >> it hasn't persisted we are not come placent. we regulated or banking system in europe strongly to avoid similar problems than in the past i think when i talk to colleagues here, we have managed the crisis and switzerland had their own difficulties, but the eu level has had debate with parliament we are looking forward to the implementation we are in a different

environment financially. i think banks have to take account for that for the sake of market stability, it was important that what happened in the u.s. did not have contagion america's big banks are expected to post a decline in earnings and sobering outlook with the first quarter earnings season today the look at the banking crisis in march is due today. following the run on the banks, investors will pay attention to the deposit levels and liquidity. banks are expected to raise the loan loss provisions offsetting gains in net income. in the meantime, lighter deal making is expected to weigh on trading revenue. jpmorgan chase and citi are the names reporting today. followed by goldman and bank of america and morgan stanley

investment director of beaberden joins me now luke, you said this is the most important bank earnings season in a decade. a bold statement elaborate for us. >> yeah, we've all been there for the last crisis and what happened back in the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 things calmed down regulator got things under control and we move to today with a different crisis. it is important because it gives us a real direction for what is happening with the banks that you were talking about the impact on the economy and importantly what they will be doing with that all important lending facility that they offer. small businesses and companies and consumers. it is crucial for how the economy goes forward from here

and how many interest rates we get and that's going to affect yields and markets a big quarter. >> one of the areas we're watching is deposit levels with the flight from a number of the regional lenders who is poised to emerge as the biggest beneficiary of the deposit flight >> we see the big six in the u.s. take deposits jpmorgan chase is the one that stands out today they are one of the biggest money banks in the u.s long-term track record of taking deposits in difficult times. we see that to a big increase of the deposit activity at the cost of the regions some of that will go back and jpmorgan chase and others have deposited money back to the regionals to support them. particularly some of the runs close to problematic stages.

jpmorgan chase today and probably bank of america should see an increase in deposit taking activity. >> in addition to jpmorgan chase taking center stage today, we have citi to look out for. what matters in those earnings >> citi for me is what is going on in the investment bank as well the m&a activity dropped off significantly. they are finding equity trading tough and profitability hard to find in that space little bit better with fixed income commodity trading that helped them they are trying to reorganize the bank some stuff in latin america they have been trying to offload for a while. this crisis doesn't help it will be important for citi and how they go forward from here it remains difficult to find support for their earnings

>> okay. for the equity perspective, what about the credit perspective and investors in credit markets play the banks? you are overweight in banks in credit markets where do you want to be? >> for the last decade or so, if you like the bank and you have gone to the riskiest bonds at-1 or tier-2 or senior structure. now, i think we are getting to the point you go up in quality, not down in quality. we have been reducing the at-1 exposure and looking for opportunities. if we get a rally, we reduce the tier-2 exposure as well. if we get new bank debt, we are looking for senior preferred and non-preferred deals is the safest place to be holding bank credit for the next year or year and a half. >> what about from the equity

perspective? you mentioned citi you don't see a lot of support coming for the stock what about the overall sector? >> i think it is probably too early to get interested in banks. i have been underweight bank equity for a while now it is not something i do in the professional sense i'm a credit investor. i have an opinion. it is a sector where you find earnings hard to come by across the piece. i would wait until we get really solid evidence that the fed reached the peak with interest rate and coming down the other side that might be next year. right now, it is still a very volatile place to put equity to work. >> luke, very clear. thank you for the wide ranging views helping set up for the start of earnings season a lot coming up today and next week in the banking sector as for markets in europe, we are

trading higher across the board in early trade all of the major reegions are up we have come off the high of the day. .30% higher for the markets. this after the ppi yesterday stateside. surprised to the down side confirming the narrative that inflation is cooling at the headline level that led to gains on wall street yesterday. this morning, a bit of a different picture. u.s. futures indicate a bit of a pull back. we will see profit taking after the strong gains yesterday s&p ending at the highest level since february nasdaq gaining 2%. strong moves higher yesterday. we are looking at a lower start today. all eyes on the u.s. that ifor 'st today. i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is coming your way next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. stocks getting a bump with the signal of cooling inflation. futures are facing pressure this morning. one the drivers is earnings kicking in high gear with the several big banks. hugh son is here to tell us more violence in paris. pension protesters storm the headquarters of the iconic luxury brand run b