it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. stocks getting a bump with the signal of cooling inflation. futures are facing pressure this morning. one the drivers is earnings kicking in high gear with the several big banks. hugh son is here to tell us more violence in paris. pension protesters storm the headquarters of the iconic luxury brand run by the world's

richest man. all of this as the french stock exchange hits a record high. shares of boeing under pressure as the planemaker faces challenges with one of its key jets done deal? the day after jeff bezos apparently bailed on the bid for the commanders, a new potential owner. potential of a new ownership group with the magic touch it is april 14th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange" on friday morning. i'm frank holland. let's kickoff with the check of the futures. futures are very slightly in the red this morning something we will continue to watch ahead of the bank earnings very early the dow would open up 100 points lower. a bounce for stocks yesterday

pushing the s&p and nasdaq in positive territory for the week. the upside move. now for the week, the dow up 1.5% s&p is up 1% the nasdaq is up is .50% earnings is the key driver for the markets. we get results from jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo we get blackrock and united health we will dive into the banks in a moment the bond market is steady as she goes the important thing is the yield on the 2-year treasury is still below 4% turning to energy. comments from the iaea saying the oil supply deficit in the second half of the year.

right now, we are seeing the u.s. benchmark at $82 a note here. natural gas is up 1% this morning. cryptocurrency with bitcoin above $30,000. the story here is ethereum above $2,000 after the shanghai upgrade at $2,100. up 5%. time for the check in the overseas action. early trade in europe with arabile gumede who is standing by in our london newsroom. arabile, good morning. >> good morning, frank it is a good friday by the tilt of things, especially when you look at the european index some general sense of positivity investors digesting the ppi

number that came out yesterday of the united states surprising to the upside we are waiting for more data to come out and investors are looking to the earnings season to get a sense of where things lie especially on the equities sales at hermes rose 23% on the year that is in the first quarter well above the market expectation. the brand behind the famous birken handbag has seen higher demand in china and in europe. the group reporting higher store traffic in the u.s other rivals like lvmh struggled to maintain momentum 1%, frank. >> arabile, sticking with luxury we saw a chaotic scene in paris and protesters stormed the headquarters of lvmh can you take us through what happened >> this is all in a fight

against president emmanuel macron's pension reform where he would like to increase the retirement age from 62 to 64 having done so already with parliament and continued fights on the streets and protests laid out. trade unions say if you like to gain more money when he it comes to pensions, you should be taking it from the rich. lvmh owned by the richest man in the world. they are saying that is where the money should come from the french high court is set to deliver the statement today on the reform plans the proposed law would see the country's retirement age raised from 62 to 64 as noted among other reforms. the court could block the law from coming into effect and strike down specific measures or force a public referendum on the plan we will be on the lockok out for

that one >> thank you, arabile gumede. now to the big story big banks set to kickoff quarterly results. jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo all reporting before the bell the results on the back of the regional banking turmoil last month and fed signaling a mild recession. we have hugh son with us now to talk about the results hugh, good morning what are you watching for? is there one key met ric that i important to watch >> frank, good morning there is one dep deposits not just the absolute level of deposits at the banks, but the rate in which they heare forcedt pay for deposits two things happened since last month. flight to safety people pulling out money from

the regional banks and putting them in bank of america and citi and jpmorgan chase what you had is for the first time in years, the industry is forced to pay up for deposits. what that does is that actually pressures the core way in which they make money which is a spread of what they pay depositors and what they charge for loans. you have that going on at the same time, we arer to ren we are setting money aside for bad loans. as they get closer to recession and if they are pessimistic about odds of recession, they will put billions of dollars aside in terms of loan reserve for possible loan defaults as they come up those are the things i'm looking at today

>> if you want to read more about your take on what they are putting aside for bad loans, go to cnbc.com and read your latest article. which of the big banks is the most under the microscope under the heels of the banking turmoil? >> in terms of they are so big, the that would be jpmorgan chase with the balance sheet not that they are under pressure, but they are massive furthermore, with jamie dimon speaking to the media, people want his take on the economy and the way the crisis will play out and the commercial real estate scene and how that may develop jpmorgan chase is first up and an will draw the most interest from investors >> hugh son from cnbc.com. thank you. turning attention back to the markets. bank results will be watched by investors as we look to close

out what is poised to be a positive week. we get data on the back of the fed comments signaling a mild recession. march sales are expected to show a pull back from the previous month. let's bring in mark andersen of asset allocation of ubs. mark, great to have you here. >> thank you, frank. >> we showed the forecast for march retail sales pull back of .50%. is that a meaning oful report we we have so many other things going on what can that tell us about the economy and about the markets? >> i think there is meaning in the report coming out later today. it is slickly to show a pull back we have to quarterly growth profile negative i think it will bring down inflation and we have seen both headline ppi and cpi over the

last couple days. >> the big focus is the bank earnings the fed has a lot of concerns about the impact of the banking crisis on the economy. forecasting a mild recession what are you looking for in the upcoming reports >> we look at loan provisions to see how worried the banks are with the slowdown and economic activity and defaults they may see on the consumer and companies that they are lending. i'm interested to see as well whether on the earnings front and the increase in interest rates which are likely to bring net interest margins higher and to which extent, we get a bit more positive on banks ubs has been negative on u.s. banks and neutral on the european ones. we are starting to see value creeping in to the markets european banks trading at six or seven times earnings

we are likely to see the economy holding up in europe and that could bring opportunity. >> talk about the portfolio management right now obviously, you are managing in the wealth of high net worth individuals. you mentioned a possible increase of interest rates and how do you see the banks swing on the hike compared to pce at the end of april >> it feels like a difficult time to advise private wealth. we have the slowing economic activity in particular in the u.s. which is likely to bring stocks further down. the s&p at 3,800 not a lot of upside here as long as the fed keeps hiking, there is a worry of interest rates moving higher. we believe investment grade has a lot of yield we expect a slowdown in growth and inflation. we intend to look defensive with

the high bond rate. >> you said the price year end is 3,800 >> yes. >> mark, thank you surprise bear there. a lot more ahead on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors need to know today meta facing fresh push back over the metaverse the new calls of child safety in the virtual world. united health is due wit e hour we dig in to the dow component a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get a check on the corporate stories with silvana henao. good morning, silvana. >> good morning, frank officials in san francisco announcing they arrested a suspect in the stabbing death of bob lee. lee and the suspect knew each other, but did not say more about the connection lee was the former chief technology officer of square who helped launch cash app before

joining a crypto and digital payment startup. meta is urged by organizations and children safety experts to stop the plans to allow minors in the virtual reality world. a letter sent to mark zuckerberg, dozens of groups are arguing that minors will face harassment and privacy violations on the horizon world reality app which is in its early stages. walmart is selling a men's wear brand to whb global in a $75 million deal frank, this marks the second time this year that walmart offloaded a direct-to-consumer brand that it bought under the former president >> i did not know walmart owned

that it is interesting who owns what. >> it has been a while, but i know that for a while i thought it was nordstrom >> interesting silvana, see you later on. thank you. time now for your morning big money movers we begin with shares of boeing pulling back after the maker paused delivery of the 737 jets. the issues do not effect the safety of planes in the air. it impacts the significant number of undelivered aircraft the company expects deliveries to decline as it inspecting models shares are down 4% ev maker lucid under performing on delivery producing fewer for customers in the first quarter due to weaker than expected demand this follows comments from the ceo that too few people are

aware of the company as it struggles to convert reservations into orders down more than 6% this morning. coming up on "wex," our bob pisani looks into the recession fears and why it could be a downturn for the market. stay with us across tiple sy globally, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need... yup. in real time... check. . ..to make quick decisions? check. aaaand check. that's the hybrid cloud solution ibm and a global bank created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

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we will talk about what is going on in paris. social unrest over potential pension reform turning to a big earnings mover today. united health. set to report before the bell later this hour. it is propjected full year revenue of jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo it is up 11% this month alone. contributing 350 points to the price index month-to-date performance an it is the biggest contributor to the 500 point gain in april. for more on what to expect, let's bring in lance wilkes. >> thanks for having me. >> lance, it is hard to believe this company is under the radar. let's dig deep into united health price target is a 12% upside what do you expect from the

report >> i think the key thing is medical costs. as you look at this year and we start to see rising payrolls for hospitals and labor supply is controlling medical costs. see if those rise and if that beats medical costs. that is the most important thing for the name the second is the big services business optum health unit. they own doctors and they provide data and information for the healthcare system. those are set to beat today. that is interesting to see whether they are able to beat on the top line or beat on the top and bottom line. >> united health is 80% of revenue from premiums from business are those premiums under pressure with the current environment with a lot of sectors? i know tech is a small part, but

job instability and other companies looking to cut costs >> great question. united is a diversified business they actually are equally positioned in the government business of medicare and medicaid earlier in covid with the sharp job declines for a number of months on end, we actually saw more members getting added to medicaid than lost to employer i think united is well positioned for this quarter, but from a membership standpoint, the concern is from the medical cost standpoint and making sure you are picking up the healthy members and moving to employer for individual coverage opposed to uninsured >> part of the business is a political football the pharmacy benefit management business you are shaking your head. it is a bit contentious. it is catching the attention of lawmakers on capitol hill. is there regulation risk in the

near term that vinvestors need t know about >> i think the pbm space is right for regulatory and legislative changes. in general, i just had a big policy event last week all of the speakers are expecting legislation this year. what it is focused on is not just transparency, but business model shift from the hidden fee model which is spreads to a explicit fee model admin fees any time you see the fee, it is less you can't see the fee united is the best positioned of all of the pb ms there united health insurance is the

customer the pbm would make less money, but the customers would make money. it is moving money from one pocket to another for half of the business >> okay. that is interesting. in your note, you are not expecting any big surprises. any metrics that investors should look at a huge company $490 billion market cap. a lot of portfolios for etfs and pensions >> you know, i think the most important thing is medical lost ratio and medical costs for the year how they deal with guidance. the second thing is top line and some of the services businesses other than the pbm the other thing is membership. membership in the medicare advantage business the risks that we had coming into the year are diminished

that is why it is up 11% >> certainly something to watch. lance, thank you still on deck here on "worldwide exchange," we are gearing up for the bank earnings following the turmoil. we dig into what to watch in the numbers. "wex" will be right back net. thm to fin ace. (♪ ♪) how do we demonstrate our unmovable strength? (eagle call) nope. how do we show that we'll stand tall through the storms? nah. (thunder) how do we make our clients feel secure and- ugh... not lions. (lion rumbles) we do it with our people. people who've been looking after people for over 170 years.

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it is 5:30 a.m. in new york

city we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange. we are bracing for the big banks earnings we dive into what to expect in the sector on the heels of the turmoil which rocked the market. stocks finding momentum. futures pointing to a bit of pressure ahead of the open. and france stock market hits a high and protesters in paris turn to luxury it is friday, april 14th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back i'm frank holland. let's check on the u.s. stock futures. under a bit of pressure this morning. the dow is easing off the pressure now down 77 points you can see lower across the

board. earnings season set to kick in with jpmorgan chase and citi and wells fargo and blackrock reporting. the fed reporting this week and investors are wondering if the results this quarter will play out. bob pisani has more. >> the fed declaring a mild recession likely, short bets on the s&p are rising the reason mild recessions are bad for stocks typical recession is usually accompanied by a 10% to 20% decline in earnings and roughly 25% decline in prices. the market is nowhere near the estimates. earnings are expected to decline in the mid-single digits in the first and second quarter and then expected to recover and hit record levels in the second half of the year. that is not typical of a recession. the stock market is positioned for a soft landing

that means not a serious economic decline at all. the bulls argue the stock market already had its recession. pricing prices on the s&p declined 25% from peak to trough last year. that's true, but that was last year with no serious decline in earnings in sight, the market seems to be positioned against any idea of a mild recession >> thank you to bob for that report let's dive into the banks reporting and bring in devin ryan at j and p securities and stephen scouten. >> good morning. >> devin, what is the metric to watch? we had hugh son earlier today. how big a deal are deposits? as a metric to watch in today's reports. >> good morning, frank

two things deposits and movement of deposits and what companies are paying on deposits and credit. the outlook for the economy and what banks aring e seeing on th credit books the data we have seen will not be an issue there. it is less of a focus. people will be tuned in on what they pay on deposits and the margin expectation the credit are we going into recession? if we are, what areas of credit are showing cracks we are not seeing that much yet, but people are talking commercial real estate that is an area people are focused on as well as auto there are points of focus. >> obviously, the stocks do trade in the pre-market. stephen, are there tea leaves investors can see? we see data out from bank of america. according to the data, $500

billion in outflow from commercial banks happened in the last five weeks. anything else? >> you see the data so far that devin showed flow into the larger banks i think what you have seen in the data is stabilization. i think that is what we are looking for today to confirm the data for earnings, but to the degree companies give us data through today or what have you to show what has happened subsequent to quarter end and have we seen the stable ilstabi. investors can get la lot more comfort with the earnings power of the banks and it becomes a question of how hard a landing do we get later in the year and what credit issues may or may not materialize? >> stephen, you mentioned

credit what credit? the availability of creditor liqu - credit or liquidity? >> i think, first, if we see growth this quarter or growth in line with last quarter, that may be viewed negatively by investors. people are wary of growth because of what we may see later this year. we are not seeing that in chargcharge offs we could see that early stage delinquency numbers we could track. what we expect this quarter is you could see loan loss reserves you see some of the banks front run and expect losses with the accounting feature and that is what we saw in september of 2020 which was the ramp point for the group. we had sufficient reserves to

deal with credit issues and investors got bullish. i think you look at the early stage delinquency numbers and reserve build and hope to go from there >> something to watch. devin, over to you the banks have a robust investment banking business. what do you expect from that with the ipo and m&a market? >> you will see weak equity capital markets and weak m&a completions were down 50% year over year. you see that on the flip side which is trading resilient we actually want to lean into the names here on the relative basis with more exposure to trading pound for pound. goldman sachs with 45% of the revenue comes from trading they will be resilient in the world of unknowns of credit and

deposits that would be one we would look at here. >> devin and stephen, stephen, i'll start with you. the banks will have calls. ceo will have guidance and comments which call do you think investors should listen to or read later on today? >> i think the jpmorgan chase call and dimon says is the most talked about conversation of the day. whatever he says, i think, will have carryover throughout the day and beyond regional bank earnings i think the read through from the larger banks to the rest of the group is less significant today than normally is, but his comments as a whole drive the boat to some degree with today's market response. >> devin >> i couldn't agree more jpmorgan chase is critical i think to stephen's point, there are two stories with the large banks and smaller banks. people continue to focus on the

smaller banks and where there is volatility over the past month we need to see stabilization for the space to really bottom out here today will be important, but there is still a lot of earnings the next couple weeks. >> a week ago, jamie dimon talked about a possible recession. a lot of people will listen to the call to see if he has a change of outlook. devin and steve, thank you. coming up, more on the developing story in france as officials change the pension reforms. "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment

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well come back. the france constitutional council is set to decide on the emmanuel macron plan to raise the retirement age which sparks demonstrations escalating with the anger focused on lvmh. you can see here proper testers stormed the headquarters on the day shares jumped to a record high the founder and ceo is the world's richest man. protesters chanting there is money in the pockets of

billionaires let's get to ali arouzi in paris. ali, what will the french constitutional council rule on today? >> reporter: that is right everybody is on tender hooks over the possible outcomes they could strike down president macron's reform bill which is highly unlikely. they could accept it they could say it is legal and introduce caveats to the bill which would work into president macron's favor because it is not an all-out victory for him because it is not popular on the streets. it would give an opening for him to negotiate less contentious points with the bill with the unions frank, a motion was introduced by left-wing party questioning how they will finance this pension reform and asking for a refe

referendum when the council meets tonight at 6:00 p.m. paris time, it is unlikely they will have a decision they will probably side with macron and saying this needs to be done which sets the tone in the country. stl they have to consider the refe referendum the protesters on the treats will be out to put pressure on the government to make sure they get their way and the country will still remain in a standstill for months to come while things are undetermined and the french people try to protect social reforms which they hold dear as you mentioned, emotions were running high yesterday people stormed lvmh building as a symbol of capitalism in the country. it is the super rich like the world's richest man who owns lvmh should take up the slack

and not just regular workers here in france >> i want to spell this out for the audience i had the fortune to be in paris the day before the protests started. the issue in contention issing moving retirement from 62 to 64. according to them, it is against the french way of life with the council's pending decision, what is the next steps in the ongoing political saga and cultural saga gripping france >> reporter: that's right. it has completely gripped france it will not resolve this evening. it will go on for months probably the council is now probably going to consider the referendum to bring this vote to the people let the people decide if the pension age should move from 62 to 64. that will take a long time they have to consider all of the different motions. there are legal aspects put in

place. there are votes that have to be done that means this country will remain in a standstill the people will still come out on to the streets to put pressure on the government to make sure they get their way and nothing will be resolved you will see a continuation of more strikes and more protests on the streets may 1st is coming soon labor day. a show of force from labor workers in the streets to protect their social reforms in the country any way they can it is a traditional thing for the french to do they feel if they need what they want from the government, the best way to do it is to be on the streets to show this is what they want and they will not go home until they get it we are having a month-to-month contention here going on until it gets resolved. >> it is interesting to watch where people hope to retire by 65 in the u.s.

ali arouzi, thank you for that report now to a developing story. germany's foreign minister to visit china offering a stiff warning to leaders there around the tension with taiwan. eunice yoon is joining us from beijing with the latest on the story. eunice, good morning >> reporter: good morning, frank. it is a tale of two visits here in china china's president xi jinping hosting the brazilian president today. capping da silva's trip here lula is doing everything right he called for an end to dollar dominance. he visited a center of the u.s. sanctioned giant huawai. he referred to the global south

playing a larger role in world affairs. in contrast, the german foreign minister arrived for her three-day trip she is taking a tough line on topics that beijing considers sensitive on taiwan. she warned europe cannot be i indifferent to the tension with global trade and chip development. she said on ukraine, she openly questioned why china has not asked russia to stop the war given what she calls beijing bigger influence over moscow this is as she welcomed the peace proposal that was tabled recently a lot of that with president macron of france, had been criticized, for what was a soft

stance on beijing. we are seeing two contrasting approaches toward china which highlights the tension and division we are seeing internationally on china >> you mentioned the visit by brazil's president obviously, brazil is a major trade partner. brazil's president bringing business leaders with him and politicians. any other deliverables from the talk with the brazil president >> reporter: there is brazil announcing at least 20 bilateral agreements signed with the chinese. they are supposed to have an important trade relationship with soybeans and oil. there is the cross border currency settlement. we are watching for all of that. from the brazilian perspective, they are expecting something. >> eunice yoon, thank you. great reporting.

ahead here on "wex," a major morning of earnings. courtney lays out an onipion on the week. and if you miss us on apple or spotify, check us out on other podcast apps "wex" will be right back meet gold bond healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals,

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up. we start with the energy agency saying supply cuts risk the oil supply deficit in the second half of the year it expects a record of 109 million barrels a day in 2023. jay powell meeting with the people's bank of china that the pboc governor came together tuesday amid the imf and spring meetings in washington, d.c.

tesla cutting prices in germany and france cuts on all versions of the model 3 and model s and model y. california officials taking action against tesla in court yesterday in the attempt to force the company to comply with the state investigation into the harassment and discrimination against the group of manufacturing employees. in europe, european provider a -- privacy watchdogs marking a first step on common policy on privacy rules around a.i and a deal close to the making for the commanders in a record price for the north american sports franchise. we have march retail sales out at 8:30 a.m. followed by industrial production at 9:15

a.m. fed governor christopher waller is speaking before the opening bell reports from jpmorgan chase and citigroup and wells fargo and united health and blackrock. ceo larry fink is on "sidewalk -- "squawk on the street" at 10:00 a.m. > we have courtney doming with us today to talk about the trading day. what is your word of the day >> my word is cautious i say that because earnings are starting today there is a lot of nervousness with the bank failures we really think when you look at bank earnings, they beat the expectations with the guidance

to next quarter. we are only getting a couple of the banks coming out until we get further in earnings season and we see more earnings next week, i think you will see the markets in the wait-and-see mode. >> obviously, the banks have a broader effect on the economy with the next fed decision you mentioned earnings several times. people think we're on track for the earnings recession with that in mind, with the banks reporting before the bell, how does that shape up the day where do investors go and take their money if the banks don't beat estimates >> i think we are looking at earnings season bar has been lowered. it is putting us in the position where the bar has been lowered we are looking at last quarter when you look at the next several quarters, gdp is expected to rise and inflation

coming down. the fed will start rising interest rates we have a strong labor market. you want to focus on guidance more than earnings right now banks are the most important, but when you look at earnings revisions to the positive, that is travel and commodities. make sure you are shifting away from your large tech which s&p is overweight in and making sure you are diversified. there are industries with re revrevice -- with revisions right now. >> i want to make sure we mention united health reporting before the bell. we are talking about the guidance you are talking about the comments on the calls. two guests earlier said jamie dimon's comments are important if he continues with the same narrative of recession, how does

that impact where you put money today? >> jamie dimon is always one of those that the markets hinge on his every word the headlines will get ripped on anything he may say that is positive or negative keep an eye out for what jamie dimon is saying. the markets are looking at that. the larger banks, jpmorgan chase and jamie dimon will be in a betters position people will extrapolate what it means for the regional banks what will it mean when they report i think you will see investors shifting in or out of the regional banks as you see what the larger banks are saying. listen to what they are saying >> courtney, we just found the united health crossed the wire we will go to bertha coombs. >> frank, united health with first quarter topping and estimates. the health care giant is raising

full-year outlook. adjusted earnings per share of $6.26. up 16% from a year ago more than 10 cents above the consensus. on the top line, total revenue near $92 billion the ceo noting the company saw enterprise wide growth during the quarter. it looks like it was double digit growth across the board. revenue for united healthcare, insurance side up 13% year over year led by strength in employer plan growth on the services side, optum revenue up 25% from a year ago driven by growth in the medical practices. unh is raising adjusted earnings outlook for 2023 to between $24.50 and $25 a share just an mobove consensus

shares at the moment are flat. trade is often looking for that. >> bertha coombs, thank you. courtney, one quick thought of the report >> on ptimistic. i think this goes to the thesis of why you want to be out of big tech and into value companies. united health is the largest ilding and value funds. its something you want to be in >> could you rtney garcia, than. that is it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next (foremnice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow. with a verizon private 5g network, you can get more agility and security. giving you more control of your business. we call this enterprise intelligence. from the network america relies on.

good morning welcome to earnings season we will hear from jpmorgan chase and wells fargo and citigroup.

we had united health you see the dow? shares of boeing plunging. the company has one thing after another. warning it will reduce production and delivery of the 7 737 max. shares are plunging. the world's richest person was target of protesters yesterday. protesters stormed the headquarters of lvmh it is friday, april 14th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning