it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. futures pointing to a higher open hear why tom lee says this is a good sign for your money. also, earnings season kicking in high gear as investors brace for a big week tesla and goldman sachs and netflix ahead this week. stand by for the preview. appearing a distant second in the a.i. race alphabet ceo goes on the record of what google hopes to do.

and monday shaping up in the bio-tech space to the tune of $11 billion. and elon musk and spacex with a special test flight today to pave a road back to the moon and mars it is monday you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's kick off the hour with the stock futures. u.s. stock futures are higher this morning fractionally higher for the s&p and nasdaq and dow this after the higher week last week which saw the dow log the fourth straight winning week in a row.

the bond market showing steady the 10-year treasury at 3.51 on the 2-year treasury, we see the yield climb above 4% we have seen it fluctuate to over 4%. now 4.116. we are watching energy oil coming off 2% last week. the fourth positive week in a row. we are watching the cryptocurrency as well bitcoin and ethereum making different moves right now. bitcoin under $30,000 and down 2% ethereum is down this morning. down 1.5%. making a double digit move to the upside after the so-called shanghai update. we are watching big money movers including prometheus bio-science and fox. fox corp is pushing back to settle a defamation lawsuit with

dominion and jpmorgan chase here this morning is up fractionally this comes after the big day on friday shares up 8% after it saw the biggest post earnings upside move in more than 20 years let's turn back to the a.i. race first quarter earnings season kicking off this week with 12% of the s&p and 20% of the dow set to report. among the names, goldman sachs and bank of america and jimmie johnson -- and johnson & johnson and more we are bringing in netflix and tesla which are up lightly this morning. with more on this, i'm bringing in arjun kharpal. >> good morning, frank

netflix is up 3.9% year on year. that is slow for a first quarter market expect flat eps growth two themes for netflix this is the first quarter we will see the impact of the new $6.99 ad supported tier. this is an issue for those paying for a premium plan or is this boosting subscriber numbers. that is the question that wall street will ask. the second issue is password sharing. let's move on to tesla elon musk's company. the market here expecting revenue of $23.3 billion up 24% year on year. this figure here is in focus which is the earnings per share. 86 cents it is expected to fall 20% year

on year. that is because of the price cuts tesla enacted across the world from the china market to the u.s. the market will see how much pressure it put on profitability and margins. also has it led to a shares jump in sales that is the key for tesla. they are trying to gain market share in the ev market at the same time, balance profitability in the difficult and uncertain macro environment right now in the ev space which is competitive with traditional automakers jumping in as well as startups the china demand story is going to be in focus finally, the market will watch updates on production figures. elon musk estimated 1.8 million cars made this year. are they on track for that and what is the company expecting for deliveries going forward

these investors will focus on that this week, frank. >> we will get answers this week arjun, thank you let's stick with earnings. s&p earnings are expected to fall by 5.2% marking the fuirst recession since 2020 on the revenue front, s&p companies expecting a 1.6% rise. that is the slowest growth since the third quarter of 2020. joining me to discuss is josh wein great to have you here >> good to be here, frank. >> josh, we are seeing a lot of negative sentiment out here. a lot of people are down on the markets after the banking collapse now we have big banks earnings to the upside. this is the vix since march 10th with the silicon valley bank collapse it declined 20% since then rat rationalize this for me. what does this mean about the

future direction of the markets? >> it is a great point i looked at realized volatility which is actually happening instead of what is implied in options contracts. it has come down significantly bottoming out where it tends at 14% or 15% we took the bank failures in stride and taking in stride earnings season that is less than spectacular it is a good set up. i think investors aren't too scared about what's to come. we see a slowing economy and we see a rough stock market over the last year or so. i think it is good i think there are not a lot of expectations built in. >> a lot of people believe the banking crisis is a bit of a double-edged sword jamie dimon said it could lead to more collapses of banks if rates rise

janet yellen said the banking collapse would lead to less rate hikes. where does this settle is this a rate pause or cut which is a sign for the market to go full steam ahead and takeoff? >> i thought it was interesting secretary yellen's comments. it makes sense the potential creditvi availability will be the same as a rate hike or two the market is pricing in the even chance of the rate hike in may, i believe i believe that is what should happen which is a pause. taking time off and see what happens. inflation measures have not come down as much as i thought they would. it has been a slow, very slow and steady slog. i think taking a meeting off and see where things are and signal they will make up for lost time if numbers don't go in the right direction would be the way to go it seems the market has calmed

down and is looking for a rate hike it is pretty much a variable chance of another hike and then rate cuts. that is what the market is looking at three-to-six months oust. >> josh, thank you let's get a check of the top corporate stories and google efforts on a.i we have silvana henao with more. >> good morning, frank google is building a new search engine powered by a.i. with the plan to roll it out to 30 million people this year the company sprung into action earlier this year after learning that samsung is considering replacing google with microsoft's a.i. bing on the devices. the report comes amid comments from ceo sundar telling "60 minutes" his thoughts on the

technology >> do you think society is prepared for what's coming >> on the one hand, no the pace we can adapt compared to the pace of technology is he voluming, there seems to be a mismatch compared to any other technology, i see more people worry about it earlier in the life cycle i feel optimistic. watching shares of merck agreeing to buy prometheus bio-science for $10 billion. the price represents about 75% premium to where prometheus shares closed on friday. the deal is scheduled to close in the third quarter of the year. global regulators are considering imposing tougher rules on smaller banks to ready for faster runs on deposits. according to the financial times, the committee on banking

supervision promised in march to review if additional rules were needed to prevent another string of bank collapses. frank. >> something to watch. silvana, see you later on. thank you. more to come on this hour of "worldwide exchange," including the single word you need to know today. helima croft is here to dig into the global hot spot in the middle east and what it means for the opec crude producers. and earnings are in check and dom chu is here to say why not all regional banks were impacted equally. and later on, tesla is dealing with disgruntled workers at the largest ggigafactory in the world. more when "worldwide exchange" returns.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are checking in on the globa hot spots. french president emmanuel macron's pension reform act was signed into law. next, the neavy war ship through the taiwan strait after the meeting with kevin mccarthy

and taiwan president tsai earlier this month. yemen's conflict is a proxy with the war with saudi arabia and iran saudi arabia and iran agreed to restore diplomatic ties in a deal with china and looking to renew relations with hamas and looking to bring syria back into the fold this is all to bring the diplomatic clout by mbs. let's talk more about this with helima croft at rbc capital markets. helima, great to see you. >> thank you for having me >> helima, let's start off with the core thing here. oil prices risen 8%. we mentioned the middle east

china with the growing influence. what does this mean for the oil market >> i think one key reason saudi arabia wanted to strike this deal with iran brokered by china is focused on securing the diplomatic situation in the region remember 2019 with the attack on the facility cruise missiles and drones took out half of saudi's production overnight. saudis are clear they want a stable environment to pushforward with vision 2030 that all important development program aimed at creates millions of jobs for saudis and infrastructure build out what underpins their vision for 2030 oil prices it is all focused on executing on the vision 2030 plan. they don't want a security crisis in the region they want the funding available to deliver on the program.

>> helima, are youyou are mentig the plans to diversify the saudi economy. you have the petrol issue as well what does this mean for the middle east and oil market >> absolutely. my biggest take away is the focus is on the east they very much see beijing as the preferred partner. yes, they still see the united states as a partner. they see china as the most important relationship with trade. increasingly with diplomacy and they feel it was important that china broker that deal with iran you look at the saudi investment in china, you see it is about ensuring that is the market for oil. they don't want to see market share to a country like russia i think they believe china is

the partner they want to work with >> we got news mbs is transferring an oil stake of aramco ass saudis are reaping th benefits of the oil market what does this mean for the oil market and the u.s. economy and sovereign wealth fund investing in u.s. companies in the vc space? >> what we have seen is the migration of big u.s. ceos to saudi arabia remember the fii conference in october? the white house was not keen for people to go after they made the decision to cut production american business leaders made the trip to saudi arabia they are focused on accessing this growing sovereign wealth fund the pif getting more aramco shares that is about the ambition to

make it the largest sovereign wealth fund. i think this is an interesting point of contention with the white house. when the white house wants the saudis to come in and raise production to lower prices, they look at oil and say we have to think about what does oil do with development plans and ambitions to grow the sovereign wealth fund. we talk about the saudi first policy they are looking at oil through the lens of what works with our own economic ambitions. >> helima croft of rbc capital markets. thank you. >> thank you ahead here on "worldwide exchange," scoring a big hit at the box office and there is a best day to see it if you live at home. we have the top trending stories coming up after this m so glad w. i'm so glad we did this.

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let's get a check on the other headlines with frances rivera in new york >> hi, frank good morning we start with the evacuation orders finally lifted in richmond, indiana. residents given the all clear to go home five days after the fire broke out at the plastics recycling center the danger hasn't passed do not handle debris because asbestos has been found. residents should report debris to have it professionally removed. a child and six adults are dead after someone opened fire at the resort in mexico. the shooter destroyed a shop on the premises and took security cameras. local police were given state support. over 14 million adults in

the u.s. on medicaid are now at risk of losing dental coverage the coverage for covid-19 enacted in 2020 included a rule to protect millions from losing access to medicaid during the pandemic states are able to review medicaid eligibility following the end of the public health emergency on april 1st according to the data for oral health, the five states facing the biggest drop are hawaii, wyoming, indiana, florida and illinois. fans of the series "love is blind" were frantic as the series debut wasn't working. it was meant to broadcast by 8:00 p.m., but did not air until over an hour later this was the second live show in netflix history. bugs to work out there, frank. you can imagine, people are checking wifi and routers.

it was netflix >> frances, i understood the pan an panic at the end of "the sopranos," but "love is blind. >> these are the most dra the mat -- dramatic i'm still trying to figure it out. >> thank you, frances rivera still ahead, fox's day in court delayed in the first an amendment limits. and spacex and tesla gearing up for a road back to the moon and maybe mars. and if you miss us, check us out on spotify or apple or other podcast yapps "worldwide exchange" will be right back work... [phone: turn left.]

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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york city area we are just getting started here on "worldwide exchange." investors are looking for 10% of the s&p out with reports this week we have tom lee standing by for the bullish case. and now turning from the big banks to the regional firms. out of the quarterly results, tesla facing discontent

from workers at the facility why they are speaking out against elon musk and the company. it is monday, april 17th you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back i'm frank holland. let's start off with the check of the stock futures higher this morning. we continue to watch them after markets had a winning week the dow notching the fourth straight week of gains futures are higher we are turning to the bond market the benchmark 10-year treasury at 3.52. we are seeing the 2-year treasury above 4%. let's hit oil off the 2% gain last week. wti right now trading at $82 a

barrel down .50%. brent crude at $86 a barrel. time to check the action in asia and europe with joumanna bercetche in the london n newsroom >> good morning, tfrank. we had a positive hando over frm asia you see all of the boards are trading in the green last week, the stoxx 600 was up 1.76%. today, we are up in trading. ftse 100 up .50% seeing good gains in the commodities sector basic resources taking their cue from china big week with data inflation and wage and flash pmi data dax is trading higher at .10%. cac 40 in france is flat now the constitutional court actually allowed mr. macron to proceed

with the pension reform we have been talking about the last couple months. i want to talk about the european yields. we saw a mega yield for bund on friday up 26 basis points on the week last week. about seven points on friday this is the biggest move in yields since last september. investors are re-pricing the inflation profile coming out of europe the spread between is continuing to trade tight the movement has been higher, frank. joumanna, thank you. let's partstick with europe. lawmakers want to give regulators new power to govern a.i. like chatgpt. the move would mark the biggest push so far by western

regulators to curb the a.i. space. the journal said in an open letter planning to be released today brings on new rules tailored to the space. time to get a check on the corporate stories including tesla with trouble overseas. we have silvana henao with more. >> good morning, frank a cancer vaccine from moderna and merck is showing progress. results from the trial have shown mrna treatment helped prevent relapse from melanoma patients 80% of patients with the vaccine and therapy from merck were cancer free a year and a half later. that is compared to 60% who jus received the vaccine alone

and the dominion trial being delayed one day. fox claims dominion rigged the election workers at tesla's shanghai factory are appealing to elon musk to not implement their plan to cut bonuses workers have been taking to social media and appealing to the china citizens the report says several of the posts criticize tesla's handling of the fatal accident at the plant and questioned if the cuts were tied to that. >> silvana, thank you. earnings season just rolls on top of the radar

banks. regional banks results on the back of the turmoil. we have dom chu with more. >> there has been focus on whether the things that led to the failures of silicon valley bank and signature bank this year would manifest in other banks like regional or smaller lenders. investors will review the earnings reports from the smaller banks in the coming weeks. it started this past friday when pnc financial reported earnings topped estimates on revenues characterized in line with expectation there has been a focus on the deposit basis for the regionals. as some customers at those institutions opted to withdraw money and put deposits in bigger banks for perceived safety pnc reported deposits grew ever so slightly over the past

quarter. ceo addressed the banking environment post silicon valley bank and signature bank failures >> we have not seen any meaningful impact from the events of the past month our balance sheet is strong and stable we are operating the company in the same way we were at the beginning of march >> although pnc is a regional bank, but it is not in the same category of the banks that saw the most stress. still, pnc results provide a way to look at the relative performance of similar banks among the small and medium size banks reporting is arizona western alliance the hardest hit with the bank failures on thursday, ohio key corp then other hard-hit west coast

lenders like first republic. expect there to be a lot of scrutiny on the deposit levels and focus on the health of the balance sheet at any regional lender reporting any results at any point this season. back over to you >> thanks, dom chu let's dig into the bank earnings and bring in christopher mcgratty great to have you here, christopher. >> thank you, frank. >> we heard dom say we will look at the deposit levels. the playbook for bank stocks has been thrown out the window what are you looking for with the levels and what is the new playbook >> the playbook a month ago is the outlook for net interest income for margins and loan growth we started to see that dynamic peak in the fourth quarter there was a growing expectation that the bankgroup was at peak earnings

that was a contributing factor to downgrade the sector. with the svb collapse, everything shifted to the balance sheet. deposit levels and liquidity >> i want to get into the picks right now. you are recommending a pair of trades global investment bank and regional bank. we will show the chart since the collapse of silicon valley bank. why are you pairing these stocks together in the trade? >> our large cap analyst likes bank corp. repr pnc last week with the premium last week has blown out. that is the reason for the pair. >> we are looking at regional bank earnings this week. one thing we are looking at is regulation from the white house. why is that concerning for

investors and how will that potentially change the tier 1 capital these banks have to hold >> the banking industry is heavily regulated. we saw increased regulation post global financial crisis 15 years ago and the dodd-frank bill introduced that tightened the screws. for the most part, the regulations worked the svb collapse means we need to refine regulation we will see regulation float to the smaller banks. not only are all of the banks regulated, but the rules around capital and liquidity levels will flow down to svb size >> christopher, what are your picks for the banking sector >> we like western alliance. this is a stock which has been cut in half. trading at four times earnings the balance sheet is quite nimble

they have plenty of liquidity. they paid back all of the borrowing they took down as a precautionary measure. we know the deposit levels they announced they are down $6 billion. we learned from the crisis lows in early march, deposits have grown. we are looking to see what the composition of the deposits are here this is a company with tremendous earnings power and capital flexibility. >> christopher mcgratty, thank you. >> thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the tax refund reduction. the largest in a decade. why that matters and the downgrades of the stocks you own and as we head to break, delaware is the best place to work are -- work from home

also utah, maryland and connecticut to round out the top of the list. "fan thundphantom of the op closing the curtain on broadway after 35 years and the "super mario" movie with $87 million in ticket sales. making this the biggest box office smash in 2023 facing little competition this weekend. it has a few weeks before "guardians of the galaxy" debuts with its latest. "wex" will be right back

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here, healthier happens together. cvs health. welcome back time for the morning call sheet. a place where we check the upgrades and downgrades. jefferys moving uber to the top pick it shows above street ebita and higher margin businesses next is okta with the price target of $100 per share okta is positioned to benefit

from identity tailwinds. and buy to neutral with the price target of $220 for meta. meta's performance to that group. thoday is tax day in the u.s if you haven't filed yet, tomorrow is the deadline if you expect a refund from the government, you may be in for a surprise robert frank is joining us with a closer look at why refunds are falling this year. good morning, robert >> good morning, frank tax refunds running 10% below the average refund now at $1,923. that is down from last year. the irs handed out less in total refunds. the lowest level in ten years. analysts say the $20 billion drop could add downward pressure on the economy

jef j jeffries say this could be a drag on consumer spending. walmart citing lower refund checks as a reason for the low investor day the child tax credit fell from as high as $3,600 per child during the pandemic it now only $2,000 max for many working families, tax refunds are the biggest one-time refund of the year frank, interesting to see the first quarter results for home depot and target and walmart of the world where the working families which relied on tax refunds for the special one-time spending and if this starts to impact earnings. >> certainly something to watch. i did my taxes already i don't know about you tax season is not over

is it possible this number could get better >> there is a chance, but most people who are getting a refund or expecting a refund from the irs do taxes early as early as possible typically in january or february most of the returns which are refunds are done few left to dole out the question on the other side is how much the irs collects, especially from high earning taxpayers and if that is a char shortfall. >> robert frank with the latest. thank you. coming up on "wex," the word everyone needs to know today as tom lee lays out the trading day ahead and if a bull market is taking shape. if you miss us , you can

follow us on your favorite podcast apps ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this? - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest. that's why it's gotta be a cfp®. find your cfp® professional at letsmakeaplan.org. (vo) businesses nationwide are switching to verizon business internet. (woman) it's a perfect fit for my small business. (vo) verizon has business internet solutions nationwide. (man) for our not-so-small business too. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from verizon. ♪ old school wisdom, with a passion for what's possible. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology.

you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ lomita feed is 101 years old this year and counting. i'm bill lockwood, current caretaker and owner. when covid hit, we had some challenges like a lot of businesses did. i heard about the payroll tax refund, it allowed us to keep the amount of people that we needed and the people that have been here taking care of us. see if your business may qualify. go to getrefunds.com.

welcome back time for the "wex wrap-up. six stories you may have missed. google racing to build a new a.i. powered search engine the company sprung into action earlier this year after learning that samsung is considering replacing google with microsoft's bing as the default search engine on its devices. and amazon under regulation pressure over warehouse working conditions amazon workers are hurt at a rate among ecommerce peers. and merck is pushing to buy prometheus for $10 billion

that deal is scheduled to close in the third quarter of the year. and we are watching lyft the co-founder will step aside and the ceo david risher will take that job. and spacex targeting a 9:00 a.m. launch for its rocket ship. and apple's developer conference may not only feature a new headset, but macbook ref refresh. as apple looks to open the first retail store in india tomorrow, sales grew 50% from a year ago we are gearing up for a busy week ahead once again, it is all about earnings the next couple days with 12% of the s&p and 20% of the dow

reporting. that includes big banks, bank of america and goldman sachs and morgan stanley we get tesla, netflix, ibm, johnson & johnson and united airlines and csx and p&g just to name a few we get ready for that action and your next guest is finding optimism within the markets with technical signals of a bull market taking shape. tom lee is here with more. great to have you on >> great to see you, frank. >> tom, as you know, we ask brightest minds to share the word they believe to describe the trading day ahead. tom, what is your wex word of the day? >> the word of the day is better. >> why explain that just better? give us an explanation of how it shapes the day >> i think earnings season is underway i think the message we see from

companies is results are better than feared and the economy is better than feared that is a contrast to last year when everything was worse. the better than feared is the reason stocks are levitating we have bad news priced in. >> i know you are a known bull for the market i have to ask where is this coming from? the s&p up 1%. nasdaq down 1% what is the bullis are seeing >> a couple of things. april is going to be one of the strongest months in 2023 based on the rule of the first five days how the market performed in the first five days is a good tempe template one thing that is starting to take shape is over the last 20 trading days, 65% of the days

have been up that is the highest percentage since november of 2021 while markets have bottomed in october, it hasn't felt good because in that period of time the markets averaged 45 days of updates. in the last 20, it increased 65. that is what you feel in a rising trend i think in the next couple months, it starts to feel like a bull market. of course, we do need everything to be better than feared i would say the set up is good >> the set up is good. specifically today, where do we see signs of the bull market i know you are bullish with the industrials and materials. where do we see the bullish signs especially today >> i think that's where the leadership is coming from in the last month i think increasingly where people are worried about financial sector stability or

capital spending and the two groups are financials and technology technology sold off because we had calls last week. we had the fear of the fed which might have to do more. so far, bank results are better than feared. you see that coming from the core groups and financials and technology. >> we had janet yellen come out over the weekend saying the banking crisis may serve the same effect as hiking rates. she is the secretary of the treasury what does that signal of what we will see today does that give us confidence that a pause could be on the way? >> i think investors should interpret that as a pause coming largely, i agree with her observation. financial conditions are

tightening banks in general have been cautious you have additional pressure on their cost of money which reduces lending. that is exactly what monetary policy is trying to achieve which is to slow the economy is the fed doing hikes on its own at this point? it is notes as it is doing the hikes, because there is additional tightening. that is why the pause argument makes sense. >> you see the markets adding. s&p adding to the 1% gain. where do we see signs of that? i'll ask again you are seeing any area today of the bull market you are expecting? >> it will come down to earnings season that is going to be the catalyst we are only early in the earnings season. 32 of the s&p comes in the next couple weeks, frank, is company specific earnings. last week was the bank and we

get industrials and tech. >> you mentioned tech. we have netflix and tesla. what do you expect from them are they a catalyst for the nasdaq to reverse this month >> uh, yes that is how earnings season played out three months ago. it will be a surprise on the demand side. i don't know if tesla and netflix singularly move the markets, but individual performance is going to be important to watch because at the end of the day, these are widely held names. you know, let's hope for the best >> you are always a glass half full tom lee, thank you >> great to see you. one check of futures as we go the futures are higher in the green here and now a reverse with the nasdaq dipping into the red something we will continue to watch. that will do it for us on

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good morning earnings season kicks into higher gear. we get ready for the reports from the major tech companies and regional banks high profile defamation trial against fox news delayed for a day. multiple reports say the company is looking for a way to settle the case out of court. nothing like waiting until the last minute. phama deal merck is buying prometheus for

$10.8 billion. it is monday, april 17th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you want to take a look at what is happening with u.s. futures. dow is up 4 points last week was a down day for the averages dow was up last week for the fourth week in a row up 1.2% for the week look at treasury yields. you saw the numbers coming in with inflation which was