>> stephanie >> corteva, they have great products, pricing power and costs are coming down. >> josh? >> ita heading back to a february 2020 high if she breaks 119, forget about it >> the market is trying to make its own move back. dow down 24 points that does it for us. i'll see you on "closing bell. "the exchange" is now. and the s&p is one point away from turning positive hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead this hour. bank of america says fund managers are the most bearish they have been this year and more rate hikes ahead. the s&p at the highest level in two months and we'll look at whether you should bail or stick with the stock market and the fed needs to pivot this as one in five americans

are using installment loans to buy groceries. and new data shows pessimism on the economy is at a record high. and it's time for ai models to reset and start from zero. that comes as elon musk says he'll start a rival to chatgbt let's start with the markets, though. >> kelly, you mentioned all of those push and pull elements happening in the market. that's playing out today, because as kelly points out, we're just about flat on the session, if you look at the s&p 500. 4149 is the last trade there just about flat on the session, down about one point at the highs, we were up 18 points, down 11 at the lows. so right in the middle of that trading range, but still above 4100 the nasdaq down about 0.2% to

12,136 for that index again. so some modest moves here. but underneath the surface, a lot of different movement happening out here one place bullish is what's happening in the housing market. we got some more bullish sickle family market data permits out earlier. and we're seeing a number of home builders out there. within the s&p 500, lennar, dr horton, all these up 2% to 3% in these trades here. and i'm not going to put stars next to them, but yellow check marks, because they both hit 52-week highs today. and so keep an eye on those home builders and then one other stock that's moving to the upside in the market, nvidia suis up 3% right now. it's been a momentum trade this year, up about 20% over the last

12 months. but today, analysts at hsbc, who were big bears on nvidia, have issued a mea culpa, from what was in essence to a sell rating to a buy they think that the ai, artificial opportunity, kelly, far outweighs any concerns they had about data center weakness so nvidia shares up 3%, one of the reasons why. i'll send it back to you >> all the buzz. dom, thanks. the better the markets rally gets this year, the more it's hated. the s&p 500 is up 8% since january, but fund managers have been the most bearish they have been all year. bond allocation, get this, has reached its highest since march of 2009. even in real estate, investors are the most bearish since july of 2009. this is with the hsbc up

we could hit the debt limit sooner than expected weak tax collection so far in april suggests an increased probability the deadline will be reached in the first half of june despite all that, the st. louis fed president saying this morning, the economy is resilient, and the central banks should continue raising rates. with the s&p 500 touching its highest level in two months, the market is practically rallying itself into another rate hike next month for more on that, we turn to brian weinstein, and andre, the ceo of zoe financials. good to see you both brian, bonds are super popular again. what do you make of that >> it makes sense, especially if you go back a couple of weeks when we were closer to 4%. i think investors are smart to park their money there you have to be bearish on equities at the same time. i think bonds continue to attract investors, and the fed

raises 25 basis points it looks better >> because they're causing more of a slowdown? >> certainly they're fighting inflation, and if you look at the $2 trillion parked in the fed, they're giving investors a cheap alternative to that. >> andre, people are also super bearish on real estate and stocks more broadly. what do you make of the fund manager survey, sit a contrarian sign >> i think part of this rally is due for the fact that we didn't have a banking crisis, to a certain extent that is good news now we are faced with the music of what is going to drive the next leg when a money market fund gives you 4% returns without much risk. >> right what would you say about that? >> i think that the stocks, especially here in the u.s., are

stuck in this range until either one, inflation really gets back to 2%, 3%, which allows the fed to lower interest rates and make equity more attractive versus the other options. or, earnings revisions start to go upwards rather than downwards. and from that perspective, you know, last time i checked, it's not in the cards for provisions to go up in the next couple of months >> even though we have been off to a decent start to the earnings season? i know it's early. >> it is super early it's important to remember that earnings season is taking into account january, february, and obviously march. but march is really when the world changed with silicon valley bank. so i think we're going to have to wait to see more of the guidance for next quarter, rather than looking at it backwards. >> brian, let's put in the broader landscape. people are betting that the fed is going to hike again, especially given what the stock market is doing.

so you think yields have put in the highs for the year >> i think most likely yes i think the danger would be if the fed didn't hike and they lost control somehow but yeah, it feels like ten-year notes, maybe they can go a tiny bit higher they are a buy up there. i so it's in a range ten-year note has been in a tight range this year. the two-year note is down. so that's a good buy yeah, i think it's reasonable to consider the highs for the year are in >> how about bills, how are they behaving, especially as goldman is introducing more uncertainty? >> the debt s.e.a.ceiling is co up, so that's why you are seeing bills trade a little messy, a little higher than the yield

so the investors will take out a premium, because the government is showing no signs to address it we know they love to go to the 11th hour. so you'll see dislocations in the bill market. people will be there to take advantage, but it will feel scary. >> let's say i'm a household who owns bills that happen to mature i'm still going to get my money back, just maybe later, or would attorney bills not get repaid? >> i don't think there's a big crisis everything gets paid back. just a matter of how much noise you get around it. i don't think people are looking at the day-to-day pricing at their bills. we have seen it before hopefully they don't push it too far. it's not good for the united states or the dollar but it will all be okay when it's over. >> andre, that's why i was struck by leader mccarthy, making a point of giving a speech during market hours and emphasizing he wants to take

advantage of this opportunity that he thinks will otherwise kind of pass that's not something that will reassure people hoping maybe we wouldn't have a fight this time around >> yeah, look, ultimately i think the stock market in particular is going to focus on earnings and on inflation. sure, there will be some noise, some headlines around what happens in the next couple of months but once we look past that, earnings is going to drive the story. if we don't see earnings revisions go up, i go back to my earlier comments it's just hard to see all-time highs in that horizon. >> i know you like international stocks, andre. are you really excited about this, or just relatively excited about this >> good question relatively excited, going back to my earlier comments, money market funds at 4%, it's hard to get excited about anything else in the stock market. having said that, the reason it's important to have global diversification, international

stocks have a valuation floor. so that gives you a little more upside than where u.s. stocks are right now, which is 18 times future earnings. >> thank you both. great to see you today now to the banks where bank of america and goldman sachs were in the red but now in the green. bank of america posting its best commodities revenue in over a decade with a 25% jump in net interest income year on year goldman missed on revenue after that almost $500 million hit let's get some reaction now from the director of research, and david ellison. welcome to you both. david, i'm going to start with you. do you breathe a sigh of relief or go okay, it's going to be a long year and exhausting one

>> it's wibeen a long year already. i think the companies are going to, you know, battle the cost of funds and we see apple is now in the game i think generally the banks have done a better job than everybody thought they would do three weeks ago where they had the whole industry failing now they have plenty of liquidity. they're making money, they have capital. i think the real battle is going to be managing it's just a management issue managing the cost of funds, trying to keep them sustaining their margins, which has come in better than i thought. the last month of the quarter is when things changed from a spring perspective so far so good >> did you jump in when some of these names were -- a lot of them still are trading at much lower prices since before svb's collapse did you look at that as one of these opportunities that bank investors only get maybe a

couple times a decade to jump in and buy? >> absolutely. i think i'm -- i've been on this program many times saying i hope things get worse so we have lower prices you know, the last couple of weeks, there's been some great opportunities to buy names they haven't recovered that much. but my real hope, and i know i'm not talking to people who -- i don't think they want to hear, but i'm hoping for a credit cycle. then we can really see who the better managers are. clearly we saw some bad managers on asset hiability management the last three weeks, and we'll probably see a few more. if we get a credit cycle, we have a real opportunity to invest in the space and actually have some significant outperformance, which we have struggled to have for almost a decade now >> you, like many, you said you're not shying away from some of the more broken stocks. i'll let people think about what those might be any others that you think maybe

they weren't right, they were kind of taken down with the group, and you think they offer an attractive entry point? >> you saw state street yesterday. you still have western alliance and pac west there e's these names, you don' get these opportunities to buy them when everybody is worried i know i'm taking up a lot of times. i would like to see what chris says but i think this is a time where you trade these things state street was one that got really beat up yesterday the numbers were obviously not great. but they're not that bad i think the stock is recovering. so you can make a trade. i have to think they're trades now, and we're range bound until we get some real clarity on where rates are going to go, what the yield curve and cred is it going to look like. >> chris, let's talk about bank of america here. what are the most important data

points why do you think the shares turned positive? >> the deposit cost rose less than it could have they rose about 35% of the change in fed funds. the overall funding pricing was worse, about 70% but dave's right, we'll continue to fight the repricing of funding costs. it's the widest we have seen in the bank industry for pricing compared to fed funds forever. so it's about three points wide. so we'll continue to see that again in the second and third quarter. that's one of the challenges for bank of america. i was a little underwehelmed by the lack of growth the good news is, they're down less than the overall industry, which is off about 3.5% using the fed data from the end of march. but the deposits, i don't think they had this big surge, which was the narrative in march which

proved to be false >> let's dwell on that for a second, chris. why do you think that is >> i think most banks called customers the second week of marsh and wereacve in explaining how to spread depodeposi insurance around banks are doing a really good job of holding customer's hands and explaining what happened so there were outflows for the 13th, 14th, and 15th of march. the actual results were less painful than folks thought so the real numbers coming out now is healthy but we still have challenges and dave's right, we have the credit cycle still ahead of us we still have to get through it and understand where credit is the deterioration is still ahead of us. >> correct me if i'm wrong, bank of america and pnc on friday, had less in terms of their loan provision. doesn't that seem like a low

quality beat >> generally speaking, they're increasing reserves. if you look at the last three, four quarters, it's been positive after holding back in '21. but overall, the banks are in a good position for reserves, and they continue to have way more reserves than losses they are set up for four to five years of coverage. we can have problems go up and the banks are fine i think that the earnings cycle for the banks is strong. it gives them more latitude if losses happen sooner or are deeper again, we have to see where the credit problems are. so we just had this trading range that we're in, and we see that day-to-day. and the kre is just par for the course >> i appreciate the granularity here david, i'll give you the last word >> i think that, you know, the

industry is in pretty good shape. i don't see the companies talking about a credit crunch. i don't hear it. i don't hear a lot of fear about nonperformers and the lack of loan growth opportunities. so i think they're telling us the economy is pretty good, despite what we had to go through three weeks ago or so, which says to me that, you know, i'm not sure if this -- there is a slowdown i don't th think inflation is going to be the story, like you have talked about on your program. and what the fed does is going to be important. so i don't see a recession in the bank results >> that is the perfect takeaway quote and set up for the next discussion we'll leave it there thank you both quick programming note bank of america's ceo brian

moynihan will join scott on "closing bell" around 3:00 eastern today. you don't want to miss that. coming up, a novel new way of regulating ai the industry should press the reset button and give data providers a chance to opt in from here on out could that happen? we'll delve into that. and could the u.s. avoid a recession in the coming year he may be optimistic, but the rest of america not so much. we'll get you the details. here's a look at the markets. dow is down 25 points. the s&p down only one point, as it threatens to go positive. "the exchange" is back after this

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welcome back, everybody. it's not just fund managers in a bearish mood, main street too is in a negative mindset on the economy. and steve liesman is here to explain. hi, steve. >> kelly, yeah, unfortunately with the cnbc all-america survey this quarter, we are breaking records, but not the best kind of records, the worst kind of records. if you look at our poll of 1,000 people across the country, 69% are pessimistic about the current situation in the economy, and they're pessimistic about the future that's an all-time high. 53% are saying the economy will get worse. and 24% saying that is a bad time to invest that's a record low. the middle one there is a record high i want to explain how we got here usually when people are negative on the current situation, they think it will get better you can see that in the data from 2008, when 95% thought the economy was lousy. but 39% thought the economy

would get better it's not the case right now. 85% think the economy is fair or for. but only 19% -- or 18% see improvement. one of the reasons if we dig down further and we look at what's happening with wages versus inflation just 5% say their wages are going up faster than inflation 26% tell us they're staying about even but 67% believe they're falling behind when it comes to inflation. there is a bit of good news, or one other piece of bad news. 66% think we're in a recession or will be in one soon only 16% are worried about their job security, including a chunk of people who are -- 83% are not worried, some of them think there will be a recession. job security is one positive thing. but we're not seeing that show up overall in the economy. inflation appears to be dominating and recession fears

>> inflation is the recession. last june when gas prices peaked, consumers were saying i care that my situation is bad and feels horrible did we have this in 2007, 2008 >> yeah, we did. the trouble is there's not the optimism out there for the futures. it's one thing to have a lousy few of the current situation, but right now they don't have a positive view. some of that is on the political leadership here, that they haven't really shown that there is a way out of the inflation problem, either at the fed or necessarily in the administration because what it means is higher interest rates and people are telling us that they're not taking out loans, they're less likely to buy a car because of high interest rates >> this is so important. as we debate the data, this is what consumers feel. >> the only good part about that i can tell you, kelly, is that about one in five americans are

going to do something right now to take advantage of higher interest rates buying a cd or something like that >> and that will crash the banks. but it's all going to be fine. let's talk more about this record pessimism perhaps what is explaining it is in a new lendingtree survey. one in five americans are using buy now, pay later apps to buy groceries, not just appliances or tvs my next guest says the fed needs to pivot fast to avoid a recession. join us now is mark zandi. good to see you, mark. do you want to jump in how important is this consumer pessimism as an input to what happens here with the economy? >> well, it matters. at the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith consumers lose faith they will hold on to their jobs and pull back on spending so this matters. but i will say there is lots of

different surveys. the one i find most useful engaging prospects for the economy, recession, and no slant against the cnbc survey, but it's the conference board survey i find that to be much more presient it's consistent with this long-run average, and no signs of weakening there and you see this big collapse in confidence, people running for the bunkers, they stop spending, i don't see that >> the market is interesting you're saying the fed needs to pivot or we will be in a recession. given the debate we were just having, where investors are saying the banks are telling us we're in a recession, but the consumers feel like we are in, and you say the fed needs to pivot. what are the most important data points for you >> i don't want to be polly annish the economy is struggling,

inflation is a problem it's cutting into people's purchasing power and they are using credit to kind of maintain their spending in the face of this climate purchasing power the economy is struggling and weak inflation, which has been the number one priority for the federal reserve, as it should be, is coming in, all the trendlines look great. it's coming back into target and given that and what's going no on in the financial system, it will be a good time for the fed to stop raising rates. >> you pointed out, others highlighted it, we have seen consumers have positive disposable income lately we hear they are sitting on all this cash. why isn't that translating into more optimism about the state of

things >> it's a lag. inflation is still high. people are still going to the grocery stores about paying $3.60 for a gallon of gas. rent went up 15% last year so what they are feeling right now is a reflection of all that stuff. but inflation is coming in, and when you conduct this survey a year from now, my sense is we don't get hit by another shock and the fed does the right thing, survey response also be better so a little time for the reality and what's going on in the economy, the data we are observing for people to feel in their everyday lives >> steve, i would just say that james is seeing it differently with reuters this morning, he's saying the economy is resilient. you know, he kind of takes the data points about the consumer and spins it positively saying there's still spending power there, so we should go to 5.5% and keep hiking. >> but there is another side

he looks a t the idea that people's wages are not keeping pace with inflation and sees that is where a lot of pain is coming from, and how people are altering their lives and spending patterns to counteract inflation in their lives he says, you know what i have a bunch of problems out there. i'm going to triage and put inflation in the highest order i don't know that necessarily takes into account some of the forward looking indicators and he looks at a survey like this and says, you know what people's job security is pretty good one thing maybe we haven't given powell enough credit for here, he did make this call about the idea that we could bring down job openings and not necessarily lose jobs. knock on wood -- >> don't say it. >> don't say it. but that's where we're at right now. we lost, i don't know a couple million, maybe 1.5 million job openings, and the unemployment rate has fallen.

that is an escape that if it ends up being true, would be a remarkable development i don't care if there's no job openings at all. >> here's the other thing -- >> quick final word, mark. >> wage growth is coming in, and unemployment is still 3.5% >> the other piece of good news is the increase in labor supply. 800,000 come in the last two months that seems to have taken the edge off the labor supply. the question that zandi is bringing up, will the fed incorporate this quick enough to pause and/or pivot and keep the economy or not do too much and bring the economy sbinto a recession. >> thank you both. still ahead, apple is betting big on india we'll look at the battle the iphone face there is "the exchange" is back after this what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me.

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welcome back to "the exchange." here is your cnbc news update. ukrainian president volodymyr zelenskyy visited troops in eastern ukraine today as the war approaches the 14th month. zelenskyy thanked troops for their service and was briefed on the battlefield situation. russian president vladamir putin was also in ukraine, visiting command posts in russian occupied territory poland has started building an electronic barrier at its land border with russia to monitor and counteract illegal activity the barrier will run for 130 miles, and is expected to be completed in the fall. the polish interior minister

said he is sure it will be the best secured border. and iran is attempting to reimpose strict dress codes, as the government tries to reassert control. st state media said thousands of messages were sent on the crackdown of women not wearing hijabs protests broke out last year following the death of a young woman in custody of the so-called morality police. >> bertha, thank you coming up, from a revolution to a recess, we'll look at the future of ai regulation and tell you what elon musk wants to do with artificial intelligence back after this. well, what if you partner with ibm and red hat, use a hybrid cloud solution to connect data across multiple systems globally, then analyze all that data with watson. okay, but this needs to meet our... security standards? yup. compliance standards? mm-hmm. so they get the insights they need...

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welcome back to "the exchange." the ai war is heating one a new rival to open chatgbt. elon musk laying out plans for his platform on tucker carlson tonight after accusing the company of training ai to lie. >> chatgbt or a maximum truth seeking ai that tries to understand the nature of the universe i think this might be the best path to safety in the sense that an ai that cares about understanding the universe is unlikely to annihilate humans,

because an interesting part of the universe hopefully. >> my next guest has some thoughts about what to do about ai he says all of these models should restart from zero to resolve issues joining me now is sam lessin am i get thing right here? a little cryptic, but that's what it sounded like you are suggesting >> well, look, i think what we are seeing now, there's a big narrative around the dangers of agi. people are right to be concerned. the technology is unbelievably cool and useful but it can be applied in very scary ways and there is no government oversight of any of it a lot of technology pushes ohhen the question, how do you regulate and control who has the power to do these things i think that's a little bit misdirection candidly. it's much simpler than that. these are models trained off the

internet and copyrighted data. if we just said to everyone, chill out, let's do the simple things first, which is to say you used a bunch of scraped data you didn't have the right to use to build these things, stop that and then allowing them to opt in you would buy yourself a lot of time to figure out what you want to do next because these models, they're really cool, but a lot of the scary stuff comes off the table quickly. >> while we can go, well, they would never agree to that. but at some point, is that the direction we might be headed if all these providers of data start saying, no, you can't use this or that, are we going to get to that end point anyhow maybe we are jumping ahead too many years i don't know >> the problem is, once the freight train is running, it's hard to call it back to the station. i'm expecting a bunch of class

action lawsuits by creators who had their work hacked into by ai, and things that come out like that. but i think if you want to be more aggressive, you can say look, we all know how this came together there's a bunch of data, people give their data with some exchange to google people have a public index ai doesn't do any of that. it takes all the data and gives nothing in return. it would be easy to step in and say there is no economic trade here, no rational trade. the data was all scraped let's just reset >> i'm going to take your point that the data comes from somewhere. is it easy to gate keep this data applegate keeps whether ai advertisers can track you or not. but how do we gate keep all of the data on the internet >> to be clear, you don't. i think some of the ai proponents will argue look,

everyone is going to do this any way, so wouldn't you rather us than them? better us than the chinese, right? but the reality is, the number of companies that can view this is still limited so you could be much more pointed in your regulation you can make a policy. it would be selective enforcement. and then you evolve from there so i want to be super clear, it's incredibly cool but the question is, how do you make sure that government has, you know, a say in how this plays out, rather than it being very small group of technologists who are making these calls. >> the ai stock is notefully missing. can this company go public i know that philosophically, but

they are like becoming a consumer tech company. so one day are they going to be on that board or no? >> if you leave sam altman and the rhetoric, all this other stuff is steps along the way to generate money to go after the really big goal. you know, there's two ways it ends up being a risk one is, what they are building is cool. the other question is, who has access to data and distribution? the big platforms are by far the best place to take advantage apple -- i'm sorry, amazon's recent announcement that what they are doing is aggregating models is probably wiped out about 200 startups so it's not clear, but i think it remains to be seen -- it's hard to imagine them going public the way they structured

their rhetoric but sam has said on many occasions that, you know, the battle cry for the company and for the team is just this question of agi. the only reason they care about money at all, is because they will need so much to build agi how the public market plays that, maybe there's some spinouts you can imagine them carving out parts of what they are doing to raise capital. b >> fascinating there is nvidia in the green sam, thank you for your time today. we appreciate it still ahead, a new era for apple as the company opens its first store in india hokeisw y this market to apple's future that's next. apple shares up half a percent stay with us

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now i enjoy every moment. the quiet ones and the loud ones. make a sound decision. call 1-800 miracle now, and book your free hearing evaluation. welcome back apple is looking for a new generation of iphone users, opening its first store in india overnight. ceo tim cook was at the store in mumbai to welcome the customers. i should mention, steve, we just saw "the wall street journal."

india's population possibly surpassing china >> yeah. and so that's part of the reason they want to go there. but look, that's always been the story in india on the consumer side, there is a rising middle class that, by nature, apple thinks they can tap into the first one is opening today in mumbai. we just saw pictures of tim dock and his colleagues there and this is where it gets interesting. it gets interesting tomorrow because steve is reporting that he's going to meet with prime minister modi about more production capacity there to avoid the problems down the road that we saw in china and it's not just moving there, but adding there, right? so one thing they have done is they have been able to start making the new iphone models in india closer to the actual

launch at the same time they are making them in china the other benefit is they want to expand that capacity. the goal, you know, being thrown around by indian officials and some others is eventually they want to make 25% of all products in india that would alleviate a lot of pressure off of china. they are looking to other places to build stuff, too. >> very big moves for the company. steve, thank you still ahead, netflix and united with results. we have the key things to result and how the position of both of these names with netflix in the red and united adding 1% > plus, one name that reported this morning and one thing that got our attention in that report earnings exchange is next.

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welcome back, everybody, to today's earnings exchange. let's put the banks behind us for a moment and look ahead to key consumer names reporting this week. we'll start with jb hunt that was the mystery chart we showed you before the break. missing on the top and bottom line and making surprising commentary on the state of the trucking industry. here's what their president had to say on the call last night. >> we're in a challenging freight environment where

there's deflationary pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures. simply stated we're in a pre-recession. >> let's bring in gina sanchez, cnbc contributor for the trade on this and other stocks, as we preview and review they're saying the word recession. jb hunt still up 1% this year, surprisingly >> jb hunt is one of these stocks that continues to perform despite challenges and she is right we are seeing a freight recession, and i don't think we're at the bottom of that yet. if you look forward, this is consistent with slowing demand, slowing demand means you're going to ship less stuff around the world and this is exactly where it comes home to roost what was good about their report was that despite those inflationary cost pressures and deflationary prices, they still managed to keep their margins which is to say they have really good expense discipline, and that matters in the long run if you want something that's

going to continue to perform, you have to be patient with this stock, but this is the kind of stock that can be potentially defensive, although it's going to suffer a little as demand continues to decline for the next few months. >> we also wonder did it take the pain earlier than others as it spreads we'll see. let's move on to netflix which reports imminently the streaming stock has more than doubled off its recent lows but now we have that awkward failed live broadcast saturday night. julia boorstin is here >> what's interesting is this is the first quarter for which netflix has not forecast how many subscriber additions it's going to have. that's all because it's trying to shift attention away from the top line subscriber number and towards the revenue and the profits. and that's because they're really focused on two things, one, it's crackdown on password sharing. investors are hoping we'll learn more about their timeline to roll out what they call paid sharing, which is an alternative to sharing passwords for free

here in the u.s., and some insight into how it's done in the markets where it's launched and also the ad-supported tier, how well is that ad-supported tier doing even though the company didn't guide for it, analysts are looking for 1.4 million new subscribers and the revenue number to watch is 4%. that's the percentage revenue growth that netflix forecast for the quarter. >> i don't know if you have heard your take on netflix lately you like it? >> it's interesting. i was a little pessimistic, but i will say what they're doing is growing at the margins so they're trying to go for more revenue from the same number of holders through that password sharing program that they're going to roll out. so that could potentially add revenue but not necessarily subscribers per se, and then the ad sharing, they have also, by the way, lowered their prices in some international markets that's a volume play so there, they could add more subscribers at a lower arpu.

all that taken together says netflix is putting one foot in front of the other to grow revenue, despite the fact they're growing at the margins and this is exactly what this company should be doing where they are >> even with, you know, macro slowdown, we'll see. julia, any more dust settling here between netflix and some of its competitors as they did finally get the series up yesterday, is that right >> they did. look, live is not netflix's expertise. there were so many years where reed hastings, now executive chairman, said we're not going to do live sports or news. it's not our thing they have been moving slowly in that direction they have done some live comedy specials that has gone fine sunday night did not go well, but maybe we'll hear more about it on the call and whether or not they're going to continue to push forward therory whether they're going to stick with their bread and butter which is

on demand content. >> writers strike, you hear any scuttlebutt about that yet >> yeah, i'm hearing from my sources that a writers strike is expected to happen the contract between the writers guild of america and the studios expires on may 1st i have heard it's going to happen the question is how long it is interestingly, netflix, because it is so internationally diversified, may be better protected because it does have access to so much content from outside the u.s., and also its viewership is also very much diversified. they may be better positions than some of the other studios depending on how long the strike drags on >> they have the ultimate trump card, chatgpt. they could just have them write everything >> not quite yet, kelly. >> i'm kidding i'm a creative i don't want that to ever happen let's turn to united airlines which is expected it report a loss tomorrow. they issued a profit warning last month in the face of rising capacity and a possible slowing or softening in demand

let's turn to phil lebeau. rival united -- i'm sorry, southwest, back in the headlines today for all the wrong reasons. >> well, yeah. you want -- we can start with southwest. this was an issue where they had a ground stop because of an issue, a technical issue firewall from a third party vendor was not doing what it was supposed to do, so instead of saying we'll figure this out on the fly, they do what all airlines do, shut it down until you get things figured out took about 80 minutes for the total amount of the ground stop. things were restored shortly after noon, i believe. and the system is -- they're in the process of getting back on schedule >> all right, so united then, what's the story here? especially because the airlines i thought had been off to a decent start this year >> well, they are off to a dooesant start just because they're reporting a loss, there are a number of issues factoring into the adjusted loss. full year, they haven't changed their guidance of earning

between $10 and $12, which will be interesting to see whether or not they keep that guidance because the expectation on the street is not at that level at this point it's all about whether or not we're seeing near term demand start to slow down remember, when scott kirby said in march, we see a little bit of softness, immediately, you saw people say okay, here we go. the great demand that was there for united and the other airlines is going away i don't think that's what he meant at the time. so we'll see what kind of clarity he gives us in terms of what they're seeing not only for the second quarter but then for the rest of the summer and the rest of the year >> the stock trades less than five times forward earnings. up maybe 13% this year >> this stock has so much negative news already baked into it, as soon as we got the negative guidance, the analysts went even further than that. and so a lot of what's priced in are not just the expansion capacity but also jet fuel prices and a lot of that as we see jet fuel prices come

down, there's potential positives that could happen toward the end of the year you know, that will also be an important factor so i think there's some room for some positive movement, just because so much negative has been put on the stock now. >> thank you all gina, we appreciate it, and phil lebeau we're going to get frank next hour on "power lunch" because robert frank is in for tyler mathisen i'll see you right after this break. there he is. back when i had a working circulatory system,

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has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. all right, welcome to "power lunch," alongside kelly evans i'm robert frank coming up, netflix reporting results tonight following that live streaming debacle over the weekend. but a new problem emerging for netflix and others, a hollywood writers strike how serious is the threat and how can the streamers work around it?