changes. so they have to answer take by the end of 2025. >> because if nothing happens, it just goes back to the way that it was? >> yes >> and then that will depend on the composition of the white house and the senate and house so a lot of big questions. >> happy tax day "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with a countdown of netflix earnings just about an hour away and the first of the nasdaq reports to hit the tape. the stock off to a pretty good start, so the release all the more important and we'll walk you right up to it we also have a couple famed exclusives bank of america ceo brian moynihan and also mickey drexler will be along. and here is your scorecard

the dow having a tough time getting much of anything going today. nasdaq lower as you see as well. and not too much but that does bring us to that talk of the tape all that is riding on the so-called bank stocks with bank and communications services. two best sectors of the year by far the big question now, can netflix keep the momentum going. julia boorstin has what you need to know. >> well, this is the first quarter for which netflix has not forecast subscriber additions. so a key number we're watching is the company's own forecast for 4% revenue growth. earnings per share are projected to fall about 19%. so netflix's outlook will give insight into two of its key initiatives. first the company's crack down on password sharing with its slow introduction of what they call new paid sharing options.

and then the second is the lower cost subscription tier and we'll have to see if that lower cost tier drives ad subscription growth. netflix didn't forecast additions but we know that analysts are looking for the addition of 1.4 million new subs and this is also netflix's first quarter without reed hastings as ceo or co-ceo, so we'll have to see if he makes an appearance on the earnings call to answer some questions. >> and an interesting point. do you feel like we're kind of flying blind here into the report because the company just no longer gives that sub growth guidance >> it doesn't give that sub growth guidance because they are trying to get people to care less about subscriber growth obviously people still care. but i think this is an interesting quarter because it is really about the guidance and outlook. and i'm not talking about just the number of subs this they say

that they will add what i'm talking about is what the potential is for the crackdown on password sharing, how has it gone so far in the few markets that it rolled out when will they be launching it here in the u.s. and other really essential big markets we don't have a date and the ad business, they say it is off to a slow but good start, but how is it actually doing how much revenue is it generating and how big of a year will advertising have for netflix. is this going to be a really good year for advertising or is 2023 still going to be a starter year for the ad business so i think that this is a quarter where analysts will be really pushing for insight, not just into what to expect this year, but beyond in terms of what does the company look like down the line. >> you ask all the right questions and i think that we'll get the answers in about an hour see you then now let's bring in anastasia and

keith. wel welcome. this report maybe matters more than just -- it always matter, but given what tech has done to start the year, i would assume it better than good. >> it better be good but i think the stiller have l silver lining either suspended guidance all together or had a negative announcement or took down earnings estimates. it is low bar, but companies like netflix better surprise to the up side. and we talk about how economic data has continued to surprise to the up side and i think that up canner may also surprise to the up side we saw the retail last week that was sort of bad, but once you dig in the details, consumption of food and beverage was strong. and retail was strong.

and they were prioritizing leisure and entertainment over durable goods. so i think that bodes well >> you are not positive on most parts of the market. mr.lerner. but technology you are overweight >> but i'm not super excited about it so that tells you why i'm not super excited about the market at this level. i think that with tech, they have some leverage right now, right? this is the year of efficiency and we're seeing that they are pulling that lever so i think that tech companies will continue to outperform on a relative basis the challenge i see is that you are trading at 30% premium for the sector relative to the broader market and so the question becomes how far can tech take this market by itself we looked at some interesting data over the last three months only about 26% of stocks within the s&p are outperforming the s&p. so tech has been a driving force. >> top heavy since the start of

the year >> so in our view if you are railroaded trading as one of the highest valuations for tech on a relative basis, where is the big up side for this market going to come from? >> is tech vulnerable here >> i don't maybe the multiple is higher on tech and the nasdaq, but i think so, first of all, look at margins. who has the highest make your beginnings in the s&p 500. it is technology and software. and if you look at the earnings growth, it is about how much are you paying for unit of growth. and for the margin i think the story there is positive for tech and the other thing too, i think that we're at the end of the hiking cycle and that means that the valuation headwind may not

necessarily be a tail wind but it is not going to hopefully move the multiples one way or another. and that environment, if tech multiples are stable and earnings growth actually outperforms the s&p, i think that is a good setup >> and rafael boss bostick said one more hike for sure and then we'll hold it there.oss bostickd one more hike for sure and then we'll hold it there.ss bostick one more hike for sure and then we'll hold it there. bostick san more hike for sure and then we'll hold it there. bostick sa more hike for sure and then we'll hold it there.bostick saie more hike for sure and then we'll hold it there. >> i think whether they raise one more time or not, i don't think that is more important i think the biggest picture is the end of the cycle is near and then the question is what comes next historically you get a short term rally >> why are you negative then >> because as we go into the send half part of the sustainability of a rally is whether you go into a recession or not there are debates. but we think that the economy will slow in a meaningful way by the end of this year and when i look at the earnings

side, i see a disconnect i see that the industry analysts are expecting earnings for the s&p in the back half to come back to an all-time high we think the up side is capped i think position is still relatively light but if we look next 6 to 18 months, not something that we feel has a lot of up side. >> and it makes sense to be bearish if you believe earnings are too optimistic and estimates are still too high like mike wilson says including this week. >> if i say that the earnings for the nektszxt year are money good, they are still trading at the highest level of the s&p over the last 30 periods.

so you have to assume higher valuations and earnings higher than consensus >> and what about soft landings? it doesn't mean a lot to everybody. jpmorgan says we could still go down 15 plus percent >> that is one call. but i look at multiples and they are 16, 17 times that is not that rich if you think that the fed is going to pause and if the economy is cool be and not cratering that is not an extended multiple i think in order for us to see the down side that maybe we're talking about 15%, we need to start to price in a recession. and that needs to be a lower multiple >> and i should correct myself he is talking about even a mild recession, you could still go down 15 plus percent but the point being that he thinks the market is going

lower. >> if we have to price in a recession, that is right, 16%, 17% times multiple is not sustainable. but other thing to come back to earnings, yes, it is true that the consensus was looking for $248 on the s&p 500 earnings for 2024, but that 248 number has already been cut back. >> yeah, it is like 220. >> that is for 2023. but next year, we've seen 10% or more cuts. and so the other point i'd say, it is really difficult to project what the market will do 3, 6 months from now >> that is why you get paid the big bucks. >> and why i'm focused on the next month or couple months and the data the data i see today, it is a cooler economy, not a indicating one. >> three to six months, who

knows what the market outlook is going to be. but if i told you that the consumer holds up, earnings remain better than feared, and that the main meeting the fed gives you -- even if they don't come out and say it, but they lead you to believe we're done, do you become more positive? >> i think this market will slog around, a choppy nation -- toppy nature and i don't think that you will see a great opportunity. it can correct in time or price. but if those things happened, i think because of happening we'd have an overshoot. but even if optimistic assumptions for next year, it is hard to see the market above 4300 >> and the further though that we get away from the october low, it is like, okay, well, here is another month that we got away from it and then another month. at some point to you say okay, i've seen enough, i'm going to call this race >> i don't think that you need to call it the october -- i

don't think -- i think that is still 10% from where we are today. normally by this time of a bull market you are up about double for the s&p. normally small caps and financials are leading but we're not seeing any of that today. and year to date, the average stock is up about 2% or 3% and i know we're up 8% this year but back to may/december, we're up 1% to 2%. so a lot depends on your starting point >> and i think that it has been tough to be there in this market and reason -- >> still plenty of them. >> and maybe that is the good thing. why we haven't tried to be a bear because there is so much negative sentiment out there as long as the economy is approaching a pause, i think you still have a phase where the market can be okay >> and we've turned positive on

the dow and s&p. thank you very much. talk to you soon and our twitter question of 9 day, what is the west strestr best streaming stock? please vote. we'll have the results a little later on up next, an exclusive with brian moynihan, he talks earning, state of the banks, consumers, the economy and much more. and later, mickey drexler is here, he breaks down the current state of retail, health of the consumer to not go anywhere edto not go ae . ♪♪ the only thing i regret about my life is that i did what everyone else did at the time. i hired local talent. if i knew about upwork,

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bank of america reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines driven by a rise in net interest income and better than expected trade revenue. and becky quick has an interview with brian moynihan. >> thank you so much and want to welcome brian moynihan earnings very strong across the board. scott mentioned a lot of the numbers. i think it was the net interest income that had so many wondering what happens next. those numbers are strong it means that you can get deposits with low amounts of interest to people but loans at hire higher rates. what are you seeing as we get

tee ke deeper into this >> good to talk to you the team at bank of america had a great quarter, $8 billion plus in earnings and 17% return on common equity and we grew it on growing loans and having deposits stabilize as the fed has withdrawn mon monetary, off the bank sheets but the deposits set up well and even through march, our deposits head up well and performed a little better than we thought we did. but the real question, what do we do. we open accounts for people and they give us deposits and we turn around and loans to people or the excess. and all have performed well late quarter. albeit that the pace of rate

rise has slowed. and we see that continuing in the future and we feel pretty good about it >> and you said that you are anticipating a mild recession at this point just based on what you are seeing with the consumer which still looks strong maybe a bit of a slowdown when it comes to commercial loans but is that dependent on the fed slowing things down after this next rate hike anticipated >> we base our earnings on the market and the market has one fed increase left. so that is dependent on what the fed sees because it is driven by data and our team have consistently had a recession predicted for the second half of the year, third quarter, first quarter next year. and then we start to see positive growth.

so that is based on the fed tightening having finally taken hold and those experts see that. when we look at consumers, you can see the core conundrum our consumers spent 9% more than in mannerch 2023 and more than 2022 so they are spending on exper experiences. all these things drive people to make them happen as opposed to other things buying a product will comes from another antetokocountry. and so u.s. employment is very strong and they also have money in their accounts and so that is what the fed is trying to slow down. and i think that we see them having a mild recession which if they could do that and unemployment never got much above 4.5%, that would be a heck of a accomplishment.

and so we're running the company accordingly. >> deposits were down just slightly but you are still talking up over $500 billion from pre-pandemic. you and i have talked about the deposits being sticky. are they still going to be sticky because one thing that we've learned from recent issue, people can move their money pretty quickly lelectronically >> and deposits is a big word and 1.9 trillion of them at bank of america it is up $500 billion or more since pre-pandemic and you say, well, is that going to go back out and the answer is the economy on a gross basis is up a lot also. so the industry deposits are up 34%. and we were getting share in the pandemic and that is by opening up -- we've opened up 2.5 million net new checking accounts on consumer business. and our wealth management

customers have opened up 25,000 or so. bank accounts last quarter -- first quarter this year. so our deposits are inherently sticky because different customers are using cash for different purposes if you are a core general consumer, your money is coming in and out, you are paying your bills, et cetera if you are a wealthy customer, funds getting zeroed, you justs left it sitting in the bank. we expected that to happen and we did it for the customers. and then when your corporate customers are same thing and even some tedious stuff but basically companies pay us and we can leave more deposits they have been relatively stabilized so each customer base, what they do with the money, it is very different. but end of the day, $1.91 trillion of positives have been

relatively stabilized. and we feel very good about that given those deposits, we make loans and serve our customers that way >> and warren buffett says he expects more bank failures but he doesn't think that any depositors will lose a dime. how do you see it shaking up >> i think that our industry has great capital, great qui lidity. managed well and so if you look at it, the fdia insurance ensures dep depositors don't lose their money. you want them to go on a kael basis and that is what happened. and we pay for all that. and the industry pays its own way.

we had an additional $100 million in insurance costs, had nothing to do with the first quarter, but they were schedule 20 ed to go up. and we feel good about the industry business models challenged in march were very different from the bank regional banking stuff and we've seen stability and that is a good thing for america because the strength of our banking system is one of the things that holds us in great s stead all over the world >> and ofhow does it impact profitability earnings wise? >> and we also showed that the rates on our trillion dollars we have to put to work every day because we have 1$1.9 trillion

and other cash and other things. and you look at those things on average, they keep going up each quarter and people say how can it happen if it is a fixed rate. a lot of it is floating rate and that keeps marching forward. and so end of the day, we had 25% more net interest income we held up better than we originally planned we thought the 14.4 billion. but it is the way you extract the value. it has just been running off but that was a plan, once we figure out the deposits, we'll stay in the industry because of the stimulus and things that went on in the pandemic. and even when short term rates were zero, to produce revenue, otherwise we were basically running the business for no profit and we let it run down $8 billion after taxes is a pretty good quarter. >> it is brian, thank you very much for your time today.

thanks very much and up next, retailing legend mickey drexler will join me, he'll give his forecast whe e nserou bheading. conventional thinking delivers conventional results. at allspring, we break away with purpose. harnessing data-driven insights and boundless curiosity. we dissect the market from every angle. helping to build portfolios that redefine what's possible. because investing isn't one size fits all. allspring. purposefully divergent.

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you're next guest knows the retail landscape mi mickey mickey drexler is here with us at post nine good to see you. >> nice to see you >> so tough out there, but still you wanted back in the game? >> it is what i love to do passionate i could never sit and do nothing.

when i left j crew i was bored out of my mind and i like to operate and create and work with people >> and it is an interesting time to say the least when you came back, still in the pandemic and trying to figure our way and what future retail will be. how do things look now >> i looked further out. i got emotional about the name and i love names and you kind of build your imagination around that. but i think that it will get tough. and it should be tough too many of us are around. and we're up against post pandemic greatness

it is just tough for other reasons too. >> and when you say there are too many of us around, too many retailers? >> of course >> still >> still >> because it has been tough for the last -- >> well, i don't know how many went out but for years they were saying that i don't know what it means, you know, there are this many square feet in america and rest of the world has much less for consumer of retail and now -- >> is it good being a smaller player like you are or are there pitfalls against that too? you are competing against the dooep deepest pockets. >> it is a good question i always say small is the new big and i was the deep pocket for a number of years and it was easy because we had a bank at

gap and a bank at j. crew. and here we're owned by all of us options and equity. frankly, i'd rather do it without a lot of opinions except for the people who aren't investors who i know and trust, their judgment, their instinct and that is my board of directors. i go to whoever knows more than me about a subject >> would you also rather do it without a lot of locations does that make a difference these days too you are more direct consumer >> well, look, i've been doing that for 40 years and there are others -- but everyone dtc is the new -- everything is like a new thing. we don't have a big budget at

all because we write the checks. and when we're ready, we'll go out there. but right now, if you don't create, then you fall backwards. and i think that there is a b big -- >> better to have a killer product? >> number one to me killer product along with market being public relations i think that you can't -- we might get known if we have a tipping point. my other companies, we have big budgets and extremely in my opinion looking back -- >> is now a great time or horrible time for fashion? i'm thinking about the pandemic.

we come out and still fighting with ourselves over how much we want to go to the office kind of anything goes. so i'd think that is positive for a fashion stand point, do whatever you want, but if you are not going to the office, it may be more negative because anything goes because you can be so casual, it doesn't matter >> don't me started with not going to the office. >> you are going to the office kind of guy? >> spontaneity, mentorship, creativity, social you know, being close. i think that, first of all, i don't consider necessarily in the fashion business we're in the business of style, taste and whatever it would be that is what i would want to do. and happens to be things that you can wear i find personally -- you know, this is my opinion, that when i

look at the clothes out there, especially the fancy clothes, i don't understand -- the prices to me are, you know, whatever. you have to take a mortgage out. but the handbags and if you loo at it, gucci, chanel, there are big style symbols out there, but you can afford to buy them >> and what about literal prices in stores in terms of sales and where inventories are, where inflation is, where you are sourcing your cotton from and your fabrics >> today -- what was the first question i always go off on a tangent >> what you are seeing on the ground now in terms of inflation and pricing an and discounting.

bloated inventory is such an have you >> and the big thing is 9 press. there is cc springsteen and food.t9 press. there is springsteen and food.hg9 press. there is springsteen and food.e9 press. there is springsteen and food. press. there is springsteen and food. press. there is springsteen and food.e press. there is springsteen and food cars, subscriptions. daily things but up 90% from two or three years ago. and i ask a lot of people and they tell me i work only with 25 people, we have a bullpen like you do in the finance business but i think that it is tougher sale you mentioned, i callt shopping mall bingo. oh, i paid 50 today and now it

is 39. if you go online, it tells you the story of every company we had too much in my day. and i wanted to go with a nice company that has integrity and we have a july sale in december and that is it we don't have the resources of the big pockets, but it is a tradeoff i mean, you know, you have to be optimistic and supervision and that is what keeps me going. i don't like losing a bit of money every year we're small and not really capitalized that well. but i think that we have a great future >> and when you do look out into the big picture, besides ourselves obviously, who is doing it well, who do you think is doing it well

>> sometimes i get into trouble before there are few winners out there -- >> and i'm not asking you to sk criticize because i knew you wouldn't >> but i'm better at -- not to change the subject, but i like quotes and a lot of people don't understand me in a sense i say don't praise me, criticize me and i say that i'm walking around to see what we can do better and i don't say just great job we're all expected to poll vault higher and i don't know if you know the rules of poll vaults, you have to keep jumping up you fail. >> who set the bar up highthen

>> they say jump, you win the competition. you keep jumping until the stick or whatever it is called falls down that is what we do >> would you be an investor in a publicly traded retail company today given how concerned you are about how where we are you said that there are too many of us implying that some need to go away. >> i'm not a good investor in stocks and when i do retail, i fall in love with the potential of thinking if it is run this way so you are investing in leadership in every company in my opinion >> you said that you had a

really interesting quote, inventory is a temporary problem, leadership is a permanent problem. >> i said that i like that. >> you said that >> well, leadership is -- >> there are good leaders out there. >> there are terrific leaders. yes, there are who i admire and respect. the list is not long enough for me but i'm a perfectionist. my standards are what they are and i always like to like up at people and i learn from anyone, not what to do, but to do, and i know all of them and look at their stores or their online that is a reflection of the leadership and the other reflection is i always review my team members from bottom up no knows better than the people who work for them. >> and you are no longer on the apple board.

but when you look at the whole retail experience, when you go into an apple store, what do you think? >> well, i had something to do with the original store. i love steve by the way. i think he was the best retai er ever and i'm not a technology person. i don't even know how to work this computer. i do ipads and iphones but i think when the store is that -- look,iphones are a monopoly so i think that i wish i had something that was a monopoly. but he is incredible and tim is doing a great job it is a great company. >> are you still a shareholder in apple >> a little. did well with it >> i'm sure you did. >> 1999, you know. >> that is why you are who you are. thank you so much for being here that is mickey drexler you can sit tight.

statistic ahead, key names that you need to be watching as we head toward the close. less than 30 minutes away from netflix numbers.

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about 15 minutes before the closing bell pippa stevens has a look >> and bo eing is in the green a they plan to increase the production of the max. after a problem with the fuselage in some of its 737 max planes but at the shareholder meeting today, calhoun said that the issue will not impact long term guidance and also the video in the green after a double buy saying that more than offsets prior concerns around a data center slowdown. shares up more than 80% this year and last chance to weigh in on our twitter question. what is the best streaming stock right now? results right after this break

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results of the twitter question what is the best streaming stock? the majority of you said it was netflix. and in overtime, 54.4% disney. and we'll have a rundown of what to watch coming up next in the market zone. you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach

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santoli is here to break down the crucial moments and also the questions netflix should answer when it reports. mike, i feel like the market is wait willing around for these names to deliver and see if they actually do deliver. >> that is for sure. and it may not just be about the big growth stocks which have an outsized role in driving the market hire. but if you look, still the bigger stocks the ones that people know and have an attachment to. so we're waiting around to see if the fundamentals can give us any different complexion to this market right now it is about the fed is

just about done, the macro is held together and that has been enough to feed off a very negative sentiment in positioning. but does the market give you a chance to profitably sell a same level in the last ten moments. or is there going to be an overshoot attempt. >> do you have an opinion of a vix that is 1681 as we speak >> i have a few opinions one of which is it is simply reflecting the market we're in it has been rotating, not falling apart. and even that said, it is getting a little compressed. just before we came on, i looked at the 10 and 20 day historical volatility and that is right here, 16 and change and usually there is a bit of a margin between the spot vix and that so, yeah, it is saying that people have not found it to be particularly profitable to buy production in this area. but that said, if you look at

the vix futures, june is about 21 that is only two months away july is above 22 so when you have the kind of shape of the vix curve, it is a kind of a normal market. so we'll see if the fundamentals and macro can redeem that view >> and peter, you have what we need to watch out with netflix what is toward the top of the list >> netflix is the subject on everybody's mind at they transitioned to build new rev revenue streams advertising is the biggest one and the one we're most excited about and also the paid sharing initiative that they have begun in certain countries to squeeze revenue out of the people who use other people's passwords to pr watch the programming. >> you're not getting sub guidance anymore how does that shape how you

model what it should look like in a matter of moments and how the stock should trade as a result >> and the company did help wall street formulate expectations for the quarter. and people will be watching the subscriber report closely. but i think that as netflix matures, the subscriber growth matters left and left and of and i think the hollywood incumbent who did not report the count of sub skrishs that they h sub s sub skrishs they had had in new products but it is a long journey and net ads still matter wa >> warner bros. is the one that you like the best? >> it is a tough space

they are well reported on and just as bad as the headlines and in the meantime, netflix is a secular winner at a relatively dem demanding. warn er brothers is leading the change last three years everybody was fighting for their lives to try to recreate their share. and they are focused on generating cash flow and i think that the self help opportunity is very compelling >> petepeter, thank you. and now back to mike santoli for his last word. no real land mines earnings have been decent. >> they have been okay it is early and i think almost a

bigger issue is that the earnings decline has been orderly and it has been well telegraphed and nobody was expected big things. that has been enough over the last couple quarters to keep the market together. and again, valuations in themselves are not compelling. risk/reward probably doesn't look as good but second half of the year and all of a sudden 2024 numbers don't look delusional, then the market can make its way again if the ted is fed is done and you have this high full tank of anxiety out there in the way of people piling into cash. >> fed speak didn't do much of anything today >> really matches what the market is today. they have been targeting above 5%

and we're a couple weeks away, but it seems like the data will essentially underwrite the noegt notion >> and so netflix report just literally moments away and that story right now in overtime welcome to closing bell over time and morgan bell will be joining us with the ceo of rock sket ll ket lab. and now netflix set to release results. we'll break down the numbers.lab and now netflix set to release results. we'll break down the numbers.an results. we'll break down the numbers and first horizon and western alliance are reporting results and we'll hear about the dem