hugh, really appreciate you helps us make sense of this, because we're not used to paying attention to the regional banks and how they are different really appreciate that and for more on regional banks, do not miss the ceo of pnc tomorrow, 11:00 a.m. on squawk on the street. and that's going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. thank you, jon right now on "fast," a trifecta of earnings movers we'll go inside the numbers for netflix, united airlines, and regional bank western alliance plus, new data showing a record level of pessimism about the economy, the future, and investing, but could all of this bearishness actually help fuel a new bull market run for the markets here and later on, rolling the dice on casino stocks another record-breaking day for muc mickey d's, and the chart master looks at amazon.

this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, you have tim seymour, carter worth, and dan nathan julie bell over there, as well we'll start with an earnings alert on netflix those shares well off, and i mean well off their afterhours lows after the streaming giant reported mixed quarterly results. it is delaying the yol rollout f the password sharing crackdown here in the united states. julia boorstin has the details julia, the stock is up three quarters of one percent, but ten minutes ago, i saw it down 8%, 10%. >> that's right. netflix shares first plummeted, they were down 10%, now, they have bounced back into the green. this comes after a really mixed quarter from the company now, earnings beat expectations by 2 cents, but revenue fell short of analyst expectations, and that's despite the fact that the company had better than expected subscriber growth in the first quarter. it added 1.75 million new subs, rather than the less than 1.4 million that analysts had

projected. so, that means lower average revenue per user the company divided to lower than expected second quarter revenue, as well as earnings but on the upside, netflix's ceos said they're on track to meet their 2023 financial objectives toile key initiatives are doing well first, engagement with the ad-supported tier is above their initial expectations, and it's not cannibalizing their core ad-free business they said, quote, we continue to be pleased with our progress across all key dimensions. and second, they are moving forward with their crackdown on password sharing they announced plans to launch paid sharing worldwide, including in the u.s., in the second quarter they say that the fact that they delayed this launch from the first to the second quarter will result in a better outcome and that the revenue benefit will now fall in the third quarter, rather than the second quarter

so, that gives more optimism for the second half of the year, and it pretty much explains why we've seen this bounce-back in the stock. >> a huge one for sure julia, thank you very much i'm sure you'll continue to monitor what's happening there with netflix let's trade this tim, i'll look to you here first. netflix, it was quite the bounce >> it was a bounce, and it's a complicated story, because add numbers on the street around 2 million, but these numbers were better than expected i think the password sharing rollout is very important. we've been waiting for that. the fact they waited this long means that the back half of the year is stacked. the things that are the most important is the financial objectives they said are going to meet, including a free cash flow number. and that, to me, in the streaming space, is what it's all about. their content's been plus or minus and maybe they'll talk about reeling it in, that hasn't really been their case, but again, operating margin at 21% this is a company, one year ago

today, it was the second of these blockbuster selloffs and think about where we are >> that's the most amazing part. it was a year ago, this stock was down 77% >> yeah, 77% >> and when you think about it also, there was two things going on valuation, we know that was a reset there. we know this is a company that was dealing with a pull forward during the pandemic and deceleration of a one bunch of e trains and if anything we've learned about this company since covering it, at least on "fast money" over the last 15 years, they are not afraid to make big, fundamental changes to their business model and that was obviously part of the downdraft we saw last year but to your point, the stocks 100% off those lows. and to see that knee jerk reaction, it just items you that investors want to continue to own this name for the fundamental reasons they put in place last year. it doesn't make me feel like i want to go out and buy it right here, because they do have a lot of volatility on that sub

number we've seen that quarter to quarter. that's why, i think three quarters ago, they were down 35%, because they missed it kind of hard. sometimes they don't have great visibility on some of the metrics that investors really need them to, which causes a lot of volatility in the aftermarket after results. but this one seems okay right now. >> which is so crazy, because the subs number is one we've been talking about for years at this point i mean, the chart, there's no doubt about it, it's doubled from the lows -- >> there's nothing worse than a high flying gross stock that starts to stumble on the growth metrics. and you see that and there's nothing sort of sinister to the downside the way netflix could collapse 70, that meta. and then you get so overpriced, mispriced the down side, you get ricochets like this. you have an epic winner that has an epic collapse and an equally epic bounce, you notice here, post-market, we're down, we're up, but netflix belongs here

>> okay, so, if netflix belongs here, julie, i wonder, is there a reason why you would want to use this particular earnings report as a catalyst for any kind of a buy or sell transaction or is it better to wait and see what else happens after this earnings report >> i think i want to hear from the rest of the streamers. it's interesting to note, you know, the free cash flow guidance is important, because they're spending less on content. i mean, just think of the number, it's enormous. so, i think what's interesting about them is, how are they able to compete against, you know, the hbos and disneys and seeing how everyone is working through streaming and the economics. i just don't think the economics are quite as good as everyone had hoped. and we're starting to see that coming through but from an operating margin standpoint, still very strong, just hard to own it once it's

moved so much. >> as you look from your kind of investing standpoint if you want to be in certain streamers versus others, netflix has kind of set the bar what would you be looking for, context, commentary, or otherwise, from the other streamers out there, if they be pure play or not >> yeah, i think it's -- i would like to know how aggressive they're going to be in terms of chasing after the streaming content. how much are they going to spending you know, we have a writer's strike that's happening nowish, and i want to know how that's kind of playing out. what's fascinating to me, too, is that you're seeing the kind of traditional broadcasters saying, we actually want to come back into movies and even amazon is playing into that so, i think understanding how content is moving a little bit more traditional over time has been pretty fascinating. >> okay. so, tim, we've been showing a lot of different other charts up there, comcast, the parent company of this network, paramount, warner brothers discovery, they just relaunched

and rebranded that max product is netflix is place you want to be in terms of streaming content? >> i'm in netflix, i'm in disney, and there's a couple i wouldn't go near, as well. and netflix is so far ahead of making this a profitable business and we know how painful it was for a long time. and i was on the other side of this trade for a long time but to me, it's a case where the multiple, yeah, it's nothing to get excited about, it's hardly cheap, but this is a company that at least has a multiple when you look at the streaming business and a lot of the others do not i want to see the password sharing rollout. if you think about it this is -- this, to me, is the gravy. i don't worry about it at all. the fact that it fell and maybe they're defending that in terms of what the ad supported model works, i like it and just back to the chart, carter is right. if anything, we filled in the gap from that q-4 number that was released in q-1. so, you're back to this kind of 350 area, which was the first, what do you take, the elevator down after taking the escalator

up and i think you have to consolidate a bit around here. i don't think it's going to get away from you on the upside, but i feel very comfortable owning it >> here we are, they are giving q-2 guidance and saying they're on track a lot can change, we have nine months inle the end of the yeeshgs but when you think about the outyear, as far as 2024, you are looking at 25% plus. eps expected growth on 12% sales growth trading at 23 times and i think this is, you know, people have not been able to get comfortable with the valuation for a whole heck of a -- many years of late here when you think about the operating margin, i think that gives you increased confidence, at least, from the earnings perspective. i think to carter's point, and you just said it, it filled in that gap, it's up 100%, it's still down a lot from the all-tile highs and probably going to actually need to demonstrate this ad supported model and the password sharing >> i asked tim the same question is there a better chart out

there right now than netflix the streamers have bounced off lows significantly >> i suppose i'd go with disney. >> all right let's bring in rich greenfield of light shed partners a man who scrutinizes the media business for a living. that stock move is pretty dramatic what stood out to you, and what in your mind drove the steep reversal that we've seen >> well, two things stood out. one, canada commentary if you read the release, there was a tremendous amount of investors who were very worried, they were looking at early data, both subscription data, as well as sort of twitter commentary, people really pissed off in canada they were seeing consumers upset about the password sharing changes and there was a fear that cancellations were piling up and that effectively, i was hearing from investors just a couple of months ago, netflix is like ly canceling password

sharing, they can't do this. the release comes out and says canada is actually going great it took some time, but they have more members in canada today than when they first rolled out password sharing and so, it is a net positive, not just to subscribers, but clearly to revenue growth. and that's what investors want to hear. that's why i think the stock is ripping back, because this -- the fear factor, which was password sharing is too hard to accomplish this crackdown, it is obviously not true, they're rolling out the u.s. in q-2 and it sets the stage for a big growth in both subscribers and revenue, in the second half of the year the other thing that i think is really important in driving the stock is advertising there's been a lot of noise, i'm sure you've heard it, talking about it on cnbc over the last couple months that advertising was off to a slow start. they revealed today that the total -- the amount of money they make per sub per month from the advertising subscribers, they only charge $6.99 a month but that advertising subscriber

is actually more valuable in terms of revenue per month than their standard plan. that standard plan is $15.49 it's over $8.50 a month. that's like hulu territory, five months after launch. that's literally mind-blowing. >> so, rich, i want to bring you something that julie talked about just a few moments ago she mentioned the writers strike, all right, and it wasn't so long ago that when we talked about media streaming or otherwise, we talked about content being king there is a looming ing writers strike how much could it impact netflix and others and how much should they be worried about a potential hiccup >> well, if you remember back to the pandemic, netflix actually works a year ahead of time so, they have a tremendous amount of content stockpiled they will be able to last through this far longer than others most importantly,because where does a lot of netflix content come from? it actually isn't u.s. content

more and more of the shows that you're watching in the u.s. come from overseas. and so, that importation of overseas content is something that none of the other streamers have it is a meaningful advantage for netflix versus its peer group. and remember, a slowdown in production actually boosts free cash flow. we actually wrote a piece yesterday why we think the writers strike could actually be a short-term positive for both warner brothers discovery, wbd stock, as well as for paramount, para both of those companies, if you saw a slowdown in production, that would help their free cash flow in 2023, which is really a core focus so, i don't think a writers strike is a problem in the seconder to. if it lasted a year-plus, all bets are off, but our assumption is you'll probably see a three-plus month writers strike and it's going to be problematic for the writing community and certainly going to hurt anyone who is attached to the film and

television industries in hollywood, but i don't think it's a reason not to own netflix stock. >> all right, so, sounds like you are bullish on netflix is it the favorite pick, though, amongst streamers? >> i think if you are investing in streaming, the one thing that caught reed hastings and now greg peters, the one thing that caught them was the aggressiveness of the peer group. they never expected disney to lose $4 billion, peacock to lose 2.5. now that all the other streaming services are starting to pull back and really focus on profitability, it actually means that netflix is actually in an advantage position versus the peer group this is exactly why you want to jump on netflix now, is that the advantage they have versus the peer group is actually extending, and that's a meaningful benefit others just don't want to be netflix anymore. the chasing netflix is sort of over and that means effectively, netflix is going to win. >> all right, the race

not really a race anymore. rich greenfield, thank you so much always great to get your thoughts see you soon >> thank you >> all right julie, he addressed some of the issues that you talked about before, what do you think? is this netflix trade one that you would want to get into >> i -- you know, i still want to better understand and have the economic model for when they do ad supported and the password sharing. i kind of agree, i think it's probably going to be okay. password sharing is a little bit like when you have a party and you have that one guest that won't leave and you're just kind of trying to push him out the door slowly. and i think that's a little bit what they're trying to do is get those people paying, and it's not easy to do that, so, i think i want a little bit more data than canada, i mean, those are like sweet people, right they're not americans. so, i'd like a little bit more data before jumping on but i agree very much on the point that international data -- international content, they're able to leverage that in a way that no one else is. >> our neighbors to the north, our sweet --

>> our friends to the north, i mean, some of the few people that stand behind us all the time we love canada >> julie struck the right chord there. now let's move onto the last-minute settlement in the fox/dominion $1.6 billion lawsuit. just before opening remarks and statements were set to start, fox and dominion reached a deal i and eamon javers has the deal. >> dramatic moments here in delaware in the end, fox didn't want to go to trial, but it took until after the jury had been ' impaneled and the judge had given them their first instruction until the deal worth more than $787 million could finally be done. and now, media mogul rupert murdoch will not have to testify about his tv network's conduct before a jury of his peers the jury never even got to listen to the opening statements in this case on day one, the judge sent them

out for lunch and called them back nearly three hours later, only to tell them that the parties had resolved the case. i was in the hallway outside the holding room in the tense moments before this announcement, dom, and i could see one of the cofounders of the private equity firm that owns dominion voting systems break into a huge smile as he talked to the dominion legal team just before this announcement was made fox's legal team left the courthouse in silence, declining to answer questions from reporters out here on the street, but the company issued a statement, saying we acknowledge the court's rulings, finding certain claims about dominion to be false this settlement reflects fox's commitment, continued commitment, to the highest journalistic standards but dominion's team headed straight for the microphones in contrast, saying truth matters, and lies have consequences stephen shackleford is the dominion lawyer who never even got to deliver his opening statement, he hinted that this isn't the end of the legal wrangling.

>> money is accountability and we got that today from fox but we're not done yet we've got some other people who have some accountability coming towards them, and i'm very proud of the team that has worked tirelessly for this case and we'll move right onto the next one. >> now, a person familiar with the case tells me that reference to moving right onto the next one and other people having accountability, that's a reference to cases against trump 2020 attorney sidney powell and rudy giuliani. clearly, the dominion team here, dom, is not done yet back over to you >> all right, thank you very much, eamon javers for that. coming up, more afterhours action coming your way shares of united airlines and western alliance on the move after reporting results. the details from those quarters coming up next. plus, the seemingly unstoppable stock. that's the mystery chart you're looking at looking at the name hitting its sixth straight record high today. how much longer can this run last we'll get answers when "fast

money" returns after this break. dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones

welcome back to "fast

money. earnings alert now on united airlines that stock is gaining altitude after reporting a smaller than expected loss in the first quarter. i'm sorry, guys. the airline issuing upbeat outlook for the current quarter as it sees an uptick in international travel demands so, let's get to phil lebeau with the numbers there >> dom, we've got three reasons why the stock is moving higher a smaller than expected loss for the first quarter, the company lost 63 cents a share. 10 cents better than analysts were expecting revenue coming in, roughly in line with expectations at $11.429 billion. that's reason number one reason two, the guidance for the second quarter united's way above where the street is right now. expecting to earn between $3.50 and $4 a share going into this afternoon, the street was pat $3.05 a share in terms of earnings expectations revenue up 14% to 16%. that's in line with expectations cost per seat mile, flat to up 2% and then there is reason number

three. the company's full year guidance they are reaffirming full year guidance of earning $10 to $12 a share. why is that significant? the street today is at $8.62 you united is not coming down. they are reaffirming that guidance it will be interesting to see what the analysts do one reason why, dom, they see their international traffic growing twice as fast as domestic the demand is that much greater and transatlantic will be red hot this summer. lots to discuss with united ceo scott kirby, a squawk box exclusive. you don't want to nisz tomorrow morning. we'll talk about the guidance and we want to talk to him about what happened in march because what he said in march in terms of demand, cooling off a little bit, that spooked the market, not just on shares of united, but all of the airline stocks, clearly from their guidance, you can see they are expecting a strong summer. dom, back to you >> all right, phil lebeau, thank you for the update on united airlines guys, let's trade this

carter, i'll start with you this time we heard kind of similar views from delta, just a couple weeks ago here, about a week ago, at this point ed gas chbastion saying they're anticipating record summer travel and the premium traveler is where they want to be at, higher margin, better revenues is united kind of in that same league as delta overall? >> not in my wheelhouse, but i'll speak toll what you start with, let's trade this can you trade this group, which has been down and down and down? i think you can. there's about etf, jets, and it has all the elements of a bearish to bullish reversal. i would be long here jets. >> all right, the jets etf dan nathan, what do you think? is united the one you want to be in >> well, it's interesting. the whole idea of the premium traveler and they're talking about, you know, the continued demand, i think there's a lot of

cross currents there, if you look at just transportation and hospitality and lodging and that sort of thing. some of the bookings, they're telling a slightly different story. we know that a lot of corporate travel has not come back yet, so, maybe there's still pent up demand for vacation, that sort of thing listen, these stocks, you know, last week was a different story than what we're hearing today, because it did not seem like it was a place you wanted to be and the chart of jets is really approaching -- almost an inflection point, you would say. so, maybe the fundamentals, if they can make it through this sort of period, maybe they are about to also inflect. >> so, julie, i'm watching you, because i have the benefit of seeing you right in front of me right now on the monitor you've been nodding a long to some of this right now i didn't want to put you on the spot, but i know that something resonated, something struck a tuning fork with you right now about united an the comments what was it? and is united the place to be? >> i think dan is absolutely right in that we need to be

paying attention to business travel, because that is far and away the most profitable seat on the entire airplane. it's wonderful to have a great summer, and we know that ticket prices are high, but they absolutely have to be high because they're negotiating with the pilot contract, it's going -- their costs are just going up i don't see any end in sight to higher ticket prices but my real fundamental question is, what's going on with business travel? is it going to come back to the levels we've seen before something else that kirby mentioned, the lows are lower and the highs are higher i just heard that as we're more cyclical, and that's not really something i love to hear >> tim >> airlines have derated more than any other part of the industrial space i'll take carter's trading stock and say they are the greatest trading stocks of all time, and that's how you treat them. united was a $53 stock, you know, a month ago, and a lot of that was because they were treated like they were regional banks. delta's guidance is best in place, delta's the place, that's

the chart that's breaking out. but this is the time to buy them this is actually the trading group that right now, it's time to trade them. >> all right. coming up on the show, the earnings keep rolling in we've got western alliance on the move in a big way after reporting results. we're digging into those regional bank numbers coming up next western alliance off market highs, still up 14%. the bears showing their claws. cnbc's all-america economic survey is back and it ain't looking pretty how inflation and rising interest rates are impacting the american public. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site right here in times square we're back after this. trying to analyze market trends.

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money. western alliance shows shares are up 15% to 16% in the afterhours trade. the move is coming after the bank missed revenue estimated and reported a credit loss provision of $19 million it was $3 million in q-4 last year deposits were down 11% the conference call takes place tomorrow at noon tim, i turn to you for this, the western alliance number is something that i've been covering all afternoon and have been scrutinizing for weeks now at this point. we knew the deposit number they told us in the beginning of april what it with us going to be, preannouncing what was going to happen. the bump up here might be short covering, might be some fundamental buying but are names like western alliance, first republic, pac-west, are they safe to get into >> if you look at the chart of the kre, and let's see what it does tomorrow. we've needed to see this insight. and we said this sol many times, that chart is telling me that i don't want to own this sector. i'm not running in there any

time soon. and i haven't spent a ton of time, in fact, anywhere near as much time as you on western alliance, but i tell you, if i look at a bunch of the regional banks, i can tell you, their credit exposure is something we haven't gotten to. so, a lot of this has just been about deposits and looking at unrealized losses on securities portfolios that really i think are the biggest part of this so, i don't think -- look, it's great to get more information coming out of this, but this is not enough to be jumping into the space, where as what we heard out of the money center banks and brokers was a very different story. and something that you can get behind, even if there is also credit ahead for them. >> so, dan, traders love action. >> yeah. >> and this is a lot of action, up and down, for names like western alliance >> so, really interesting, to see it up so much. and you mentioned might be short covering the way tim was just talking about the kre, so, the regional banking index, the way it's been trading -- >> no short coming >> nothing, you know what i mean so, it almost feels like people are actually waiting for maybe a

bounce, because there's a lot of bad news in them, right? and if you think of the first republic thing, what did they get, 120-day reprieve? we might be looking at some of the same situations again in a month or two or something like that, so, to me, i -- tim's point is a great one if the kre, as a group, can't hold the gains, there's going to be one-offs that are up 16%, but there might also be some that are down 20%, 30% there. >> dan, hold on one second before i let you go -- >> i'm sticking around here, dom. i'm here for the hour, bud >> we have a limited amount of time and not a lot of time the big banks -- >> bank of america was up the way jpmorgan traded on friday, so, the fact it was unchanged, to me, was kind of fine here goldman, a pretty interesting one. it would be really interesting to see the judgxtaposition late in the week. >> in terms of western alliance, you have big bounces when you have epic collapses.

this dropped 90. it was and $80 stock that went to $7. something's wrong, stay away >> julie, quick thought on the banks? >> interesting to see goldman not doing well on bond tradeing in an incredible quarter for it. >> all right. coming up on the show, is it time to dip into this chip the last bear standing on nvidia changed their tune in a big way to a double upgrade. but is there more room to run for this surging semiconductor stock? plus, stubborn inflation, rising interest rates and a possible recession, it's no wonder americans aren't too o optimistic on the economy. but is that a bad thing for stocks we'll dive into the debate, coming up next

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets today. the three major indices closing virtually unchanged as investors digest even more earnings reports. but shares of nvidia getting a boost after a double upgrade at hsbc analysts previously the only ones with a sell rating on that stock saying that they were too cautious and then more than doubling their price target to $355 per share and nvidia is up

90% this year. i would characterize it as a mika cull pa type of upgrade names continuing their run, mcdonald's, lockheed martin. dan, i want to focus specifically on lockheed, up 2.5% a defense contractor, there's a lot of focus on those guys over the last year or so. is lmt the place to be >> a lot of focus on a gentleman that sits in this seat, an elderly guy -- >> elderly >> he's been talking about lockheed martin for a long time. when you consider 2023 expected earnings and sales growth flat trading at a market multiple that we all think 18.5 times for this market is expensive here. and making new all-time highs. a lot of things -- a lot of places where you could have been investing over the last year, okay, where you could have been making a lot of money, that are not that cyclical, for all intents and purposes, so, guy, good for you, 500 bucks for lockheed broke out today. new data from our cnbc all

americas economic survey painting an ominous picture for stocks and investors, as well. steve liesman has the details. how bad is it, steve >> well, dominick, high inflation, high interest rates and elevated recession fears have americans in a pretty foul mood on the economy. and that spills over into views on the stock market. just 24% of the 1,000 people we surveyed across the country in our cnbc all america economic survey say now is a good time to unves. that is the lowest in the survey's 17-year history 53% say it's a bad time, that's the second-highest bear sentiment we've recorded sometimes the public gets it right and they're right about, it's a good time to sell, and sometimes their pessimism is a good contrarian indicator. but there's something else at work this time when people used to be downen 0 stocks, there was no alternative, now, of course, there is in the form of higher interest rates 10% of people we asked said they changed banks looking for a higher rate. 9% moved to a money market

8% bought a cd and 6% bought treasuries or muni bonds 1 in 5 americans say they've made some investment changes to take advantage of higher interest rates well, all of this happens because p it's the economy 69% are pessimistic. 53% say the economy will get worse. and there's that 24% saying it's a good time to invest, the record low these views come with 83% of americans not worried about losing their job, so, the near record low unemployment is not part of the equation instead, it's inflation coloring everything, dominick and it's not a pretty picture. >> all right, steve liesman, thank you for that so, there are more gloomy indicators, as well, on the street, too. then bank of america fund manager's survey at its most bearish level this year. the aaii sentiment indicator

showing extreme bearishness. and then 95% of investors surveyed by jpmorgan see the market falling so, could this be the case, i mean, not much bad news. >> sounds like they've been listening to dan nathan every night on the show. >> come on >> when you parade that much bad news out there, this is one of those, it's got to be a contrarian indicator type of thing. i'm going to go to julie, because she has been animated offcamera and i want to get her tho thoughts, is this the contrarian indicator, julie, is this the time to invest, because everybody is just so dour and sour >> look, i mean, i remain invested in good times and bad times. i just don't think i'm ever going to be able to time the market and that's not just because i'm dumb, though i am. it's really a function of, you know, being able to time these cycles is impossible i think if you're investing right now, the key is to invest in really good quality businesses that have earnings. good earnings. because if we are in a recession, they're going to need to be able to survive and do

well but i do worry a little bit about the employment picture and consensusestment estimates to cw in large cap >> tim, in the two, three weeks coming up to this earnings season, as is the case often, analyst estimates come down, there tends to be a rerating, if you will, right, people get -- >> derating. >> bar setting lower and lower and we are seemingly getting better at jumping over this lowered bar and it seems to happen every quarter but is there something about this earnings season that people should be more optimistic? because we are doing better than we thought >> well, we've done better than we thought for the last four quarters and coming into this, the last two quarters, the earnings revisions and the speed at which they've been getting cut, i think, is the notable part a lot of people have asked the question, so you, have we price an earnings recession, are we good and i don't think we are i don't think we are in terms of

where earnings settle out. but this wall of worry is what this market's been doing we've had a bull market in the middle of a bear market for the last five months you can make an argument since that october 13th cpi. and some of that was just expectations on inflation and on the fed. so, what i think is most notable about all this pessimism out here, the people that are positioned in pessimistic posture are the institutions retail has gone nowhere. they have not capitulated at all. we've seen retail flows. they're as strong as they've been that should be maybe worry folks, except for that, you know, it's been pretty smart for the retail investor to hang in there, because they have done all right. >> carter, i've heard some traders refer to this general vicinity in the market that we're at is a no man's land. they can't figure out if there's a catalyst that kind of gets you more towards the upside or if the bias remains to the down side there's nothing really that sells you. it's like a children churn >> for sure. there's a phrase i like, it's

called the pair of twos. >> ducks on a pond >> what do you do at this moment it's where you start your narrative. the truth is, the market is churning, and it needs something to come along and inform the direction, and as of now, maybe it's going to be earnings in the next three weeks, but nothing is moving the market. >> you made this point, okay so, the expectations, i think, facts had 7% earnings for q-1 have declined over the last four months so, we're going to have lots of beats here and this is a pattern that we've seen over the last year and a half, to tim's point, we've seen big rallies into an out of earnings in, but then we've seen retests to the prior lows. i just think about it a little differently. yes, retail might have stuck in there as far as flows, tim, but if you think about over the last two years, since 2021 -- >> they've been torched -- >> they've been destroyed. so, crypto and nfts and i mean, the list goes on and on. so, i think there's a lot of

people out of the market, because they don't have any money left that's for one >> i think that's a fair point i mean, there's so much garbage that was torched and isn't coming back, but again, i look at the flow data that we've seen steve's point is the most important one. they have a job. these consumers have a job, they're working, and the pessimism is there right now, but every time i've been in the market and we've had this kind of pessimism, it's been taken -- >> we're up, but -- the s&p is up 20% off the october lows. the nasdaq is up 20% you know what is also up rates. fed fund is going to 5%. >> that was the tide coming out and showing us who is naked. that was what happened, rates, right? >> i can say contrarian indicator all you want, and i don't know a hedge fund person out there that is bulled up on stocks right now let me tell you something, a lot of strategists are negative, you can say i am, but rarely are

this -- and this may sound arrogant, but rarely are these sorts of minds, like, collectively so wrong here and i think it really speaks to, in my opinion, just how little clarity we have about the environment that we're in. i think by the back half of this year, the word stag inflation is going to be imprinted on screens on cnbc all day long, and i don't think that's going to be favorable for risk asset prices. >> probably why julie talks about staying invested and not timing the market. all right, coming up, is imtime to ante up? casino stocks are jumping again today. find out if any of our traders are rolling the dice on that sector that's coming up next. yes, i did it again. and later on, rally in the retail space the chart master seeing a buying opportunity in one heavyweight atra wn re "fast money" returns after this. ba but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go.

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welcome back to "fast money. casino stocks jumping today, led by las vegas sands, morgan stanley reiterating its overweight rating and boosting the stock's target price to 64 bucks from 62. that's 8% higher than where lvs closed today tim, i'll turn to you. what is your take on the casino outlook overall? >> i've been bullish sands for, i don't know, a year and we're going to get a full

recovery in ma cao. doesn't hurt that you got better than expected gdp growth out of china last night i don't love china i just love a recovery this is one of the great reopening trades that took forever to unfold. and ultimately, there is consumer exposure. there is a risk of at some point sentiment turning, but so much of their future has been tied to macao. and once you got the license renewals out of the way, you have this china today that we've been watching in slow motion >> just really quickly, the chart says it's up 62% is it already priced in, china reopening -- >> i don't think so. i don't think so and it's hardly expensive relative to itself if you call this three bucks a share in earnings, you know, i think -- i think -- these -- all of the casino stocks lost two-thirds of their multiple during the bottom and that was, you know, that was 50% ago

>> all right, from casinos to cars, tesla set to report after the bell tomorrow. shares are up 50% this year, but one options trader is betting the ev stock is about to slam on those brakes let's head over for more options action to mike khouw mike >> yeah, so, tesla did trade slightly below average options volume today, but it was still the second-busiest single stock. gives you a sense of how many options on this thing typically trade in a day right now, the options market is implying a move of 6.9% by the end of the week. that's in line with the 6.5% that the company has averaged the trade that stuck out to me was purchasing a put, selling a call to finance it it was the april 175 208.33 calls that were sold this participant is hedging a $35 million stock position 13% participation to the upside and that whole trade cost them 1% of the current stock price.

$1.88 a contract >> all right, mike khouw, thank you very much. for more options action, by the way, be sure to tune into the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time, right here on cnbc coming up, amazing amazon. carter is diving into the charts on this one to find out if you should add it to your shopping cart stick around, "fast money" is returning in just two minutes. i've spent centuries evolving with the world. that's the nature of being the economy.

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welcome back to "fast money. amazon ral little more than 20% since the start of the year, in line with its big tech peers, but the chart master still sees a buying opportunity carter takes us through the charts carter >> the circumstance here is amazon's performance relative to key retailers. so, you can look at the xrt, which is a broad basket, 89 stocks, 2.5 trillion, and it's relative performance day-to-day, week over week, is much, much better than so many other retail-based stocks. there's also this, of course, it's low in january was identical to its covid lows. you have a perfect double bottom all the elements of a bearish to bullish reversal >> dan, what do you think? >> i think this is going to be one of the most important

reports that we get for q-1. aws, which is one of them, going to give us a good read of enterprise demand, small and medium businesses that use their cloud service, and what they have to say about the consumer and retail and we know they've been desperately trying to kind of get rid of some of the prime services that we've all become accustomed to, free returns, one-day delivery, all that sort of stuff so, costs are going to be really important there. so, it's a good name, because of the spectrum i'm not that optimistic on aws >> julie, what do we think about amazon is this one you would like to own? >> you know, i agree with dan, and i'm not just saying that because i like him, but i think what's interesting about their business is, it does give you a lot of insight into different tiers of consumers, right? they touch all of us and they think it's important to keep in mind that their business is so expansive that sometimes we lose track of who we're talking about. but i think it's more of a, you know, high end consumer.

i'm really interested, too, in what's going on in their media business, right? they've become actually pretty dominant in ad sales >> all right i'm a prime watcher. i don't know about you guys. coming up next on the show, your final trades. after that, amazon is maybe one of them, maybe it's tesla, i don't know stick around, we'll have those after the break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the

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let's get another check on shares of netflix. back in the red. the company adding 1.75 subscribers in the first quarter. that was more than analysts expected it is down three quarters of one percent right now. time now for the final trade and start with julie >> a company that does insurance, verisk, it's not sexy, durable earnings >> all right, tim? >> dom, thank you for being here nhl playoffs, battle of the hudson, go rangers and las vegas sands. as carter just said, that's a beautiful consolidation there at 60 bucks >> carter? >> amazon. beaten up stock that looks to be making the turn. a bearish to bullish reversal. >> all right, dan?

>> yeah, tesla, i'm going to have a short position in it. i think there's kind of a one up, two or three down setup here and that's one of the worst-looking charts on the market right now >> thank you guys for watching "fast money. we've got "mad money" with jim cramer starting right now. we'll see you starting right n. signing off from the nasdaq marketsite this times square my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now hey, i'm kramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cray mere ya. i'm trying to make a little money. my job not just to entertain so call me at every day this market gives you a chance to make some money. yet every day people reject those chances because they don't believe. they just can't figure out how