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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  April 19, 2023 6:00am-9:00am EDT

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oh, boy. here we go good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're all here i'm becky quick along with joe concern and andrew ross sorkin ready to get things started this morning, but look out from the dow futures. they're indicated down by 165 points the nasdaq is down by 108. s&p futures down by 25 it's earning season, so we'll have plenty to mv us around even before the opening bell rings. you'll see right now the 10-year is yielding 3.62%. here's what's on tap
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the fed will be releasing its beige book, a snapshot of the current economic system. and the earnings calendar, we'll have a whole ton we'll hear from travelers and u.s. bancorp and citizens financial. after the "closing bell," a lot of folks are going to be watching this one. we're going to hear from tesla and ibm. late yesterday as you probably know by now fox news and dominion voting system reached $787.5 million, heading off a trial shortly after the jury was sworn in. eamon javers joining us now with the details and a special guest. ea eamon, that's settling on the courthouse steps this is like settling on the -- what's the next step after the jury's been -- >> joe, the steps are light here
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they went inside, up the escalator, down the hall, into the courtroom, impanelled the jury, and then did the settlement yesterday it with us dramatic stuff here in wilmington, delaware. the judge impanelled the jury. er about was ready to go the lawyers had been rehearsing their opening statements all the processes were in place. the judge then let the jury go for lunch and said come back in an hour, and then slowly time started to tick by and it was like three hours before we got the official announcement that this thing ha been settled the judge brought the jury back in the room and told them the parties had resolved their difference, thanks the jury for their very brief service and sent them on their way this morning i'm joined by one of the people who made the decision to actually do the settlement he is one of the co-founders of staple street capital. you bought dominion back in 2018 for about $38 million. you were one of the people who made the decision to take this deal from fox news yesterday
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thank you for being here this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> tell me how you feel this morning. >> we feel good about being able to accomplish our goals of keeping fox accountable and explosion them to the jury ooh. >> walk us through negotiations in the days leading up to this the trial was delayed by a full day. there was a lot of speculation, settlement talks flying back and forth. when did fox make their first offer? >> there have been settlement conversations that have been happening for a while, but the judge on friday had really pushed the parties to see if they could reach a settlement, and so there were conversations about that. >> what was fox's first offer? >> i can't disclose that, but it
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was not enough. >> what was it that brought this deal to the finish line? >> the first thing was we wanted to make sure we had a -- the time for all the truth to come out. we were not willing to settle until the reams of information that we were able to gain through the discovery process had an opportunity to see the light of day that was a very, very important thing for us we wanted to also go through summary judgment motion to make sure the court could have its -- the court could have its ruling. we wanted to make sure we had a significant enough amount of money to pay for the damages to the employees and the company. >> was it significant to have fox say something? that's not part of the deal a we understand it. >> fox has given admission that
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they, you know, agree with the court's rulings, that the allegations made around dominion were false, were lies. for us, that was the accountability we were looking to get. >> what is dominion going to do with the money this is an enormous amount of money. it's a company you bought for $38 million. now they're sitting on 787 million after the lawyers get their tuck our valuation was $80 million when we purchased the business in 2018. that $38 million was the equity investment we had made into the business >> it's a huge win. >> we feel like we've been c compensated for some of the damages. the business went on a huge trajectory when we had bought the business, it was doing about $10 million in ebitda.
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that growth multilied. it increased eat da 4.5 times during our ownership we really transformed the company. the business was in a very different form and shape than the one we had bought in 2018. but in terms of what happens to this money, you know, there's legal fees, corporate taxes that need to be paid, and then there would be -- you know, it would be distributed to the shareholders and management, and employees own a very significant stake in the business. >> i know anchors in the studio want to jump in. go ahead. >> what gets me, is it would have been -- if you were going to settle for this amount, i would have settled a lot sooner. it's not like the stuff that came out in discovery. i would think fox knew everything they were turning over
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i don't know if they misjudged what they -- the perception of what it all would be it all came out. if you did it earlier, it wouldn't have all come up. you still owe $787 million if i was a shareholder, i might sue them for how badly they handled the suit. >> you know, we were always amazed by some of the decision-making happening there, to be quite honest with you. their newsworthy arguments never made any sense to us, and we never understood it. but from our perspective, we also were not willing to settle until the truth was exposed. it was very, very important to us for that truth to come out, for all those documents to be shared with the world so everyone could get a perspective in terms of what was going on.
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>> so could you just indicate to us -- i know you don't want to get into this settlement negotiations, but was there ever a moment where fox had offered this same amount of money earlier because effective literature what you're suggesting to me is we would only do it once the information came out did they ever offer this amount prior and you never accepted it, or was this the most amount of money that was offered at any one time >> they had never offered that amount before yesterday. >> and in terms of the last few days, was it the money amount that went out? was it the admission of wrongdoing to some extent, that there were lies that were told that made this whole deal come together what was the last kind of final straw? >> well, we think, you know, we were able to accomplish our goals of exposing the truth and
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keeping fox accountable. you know, obviously, the settlement amount made sense to us. >> and, i guess, you're mostly correct the truth came out, but there would have been a lot more truth coming out if you had gone forward with the trial there are a lot of people -- i don't know some people in this country that we're in right now, that are very divided, they were dying to see a lot of these players, main players in a crowd setting there was a lot of disappointment from certain sides. i was wondering if you were finally like, that's a number we wouldn't agree with it you want the truth to come out, but you don't want a jury award of $50 million if they came to such a low number. did you say, hey, we've got a bird in the hand here, enough has come out i think if you really wanted the
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truth to come out, you would have gone through with the trial, all the truth. >> well, i'm not sure about that i mean, look, we've done a significant amount of work in terms of making sure the truth would come out the discovery process ended, and all the exhibits have been disclosed. so -- and obviously, you know, i'm not sure i would characterize it that way there's -- you know, at the end of the day, we really got in a significant amount of information to the public. >> right all right. eamon, were you going to talk some more? i think in our conversations earlier, you could feel this sort of come out i could have guessed, maybe, i think 8 would be a good number they said down to 1 and dominion said, no way, 1.6. we knew there was something
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going on behind the scenes that was likely -- it wasn't a big surprise when it happened yesterday. >> once you saw that one-day delay in the trial that is correct was the tail, right? then you saw the 3-hour lunch. i saw the lunch options in here. they're not that great no one's going to spend three hours eating lunch in the courthouse you could tell something was brewing. what you just heard from hootan, as of friday, the judge was pushing them to get to a settlement the judge was pushing for a se sett settlement, too, and had an interest. >> the reason they would want a settlement would be the risk of overturning, not make that case law? i mean i guess judges would all prefer you work things out yourself >> i think so, if they can avoid the expense of a trial and they can reach a deal, that seems
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like a good use of time. they were going to be here for five or six weeks in delaware. i can't speak for the judge though it sounds like that's what he was pushing for. >> we didn't talk about smartmatic or what any of this means. i don't know are there changes forthcoming? i guess it's all going to be written about trying to beat the bush smartmatic is asking for how much >> smartmatic is asking for $2.7 billion, joe look, they put out a statement yesterday right after this settlement saying that dominion was able to expose some of the lies, what they call lies from fox news, we're going to expose the rest it was a smart statement from smart mat iks. you can see other people out there at fox news in the cross hairs now because this sort of sets a benchmark for where these payouts may have to go in the future d if you're asking 2.7, don't
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ask me to do the math on live television, but that's an even bigger payout if the facts are the same. >> how do you cover them >> very carefully, i guess. >> all right it's not funny >> ithey've got $4 billion in cash they say they'd do it again. is it again? is it more >> i have no idea. >> 1.2 make up your number. they'll have $2 billion of cash when this is all over? if you're a shareholders and your name is -- >> can you do it with what happens to the company >> if rue put owns the whole thing, he may say -- i don't know we'll see what happens he doesn't own the whole company. coming up, we've got a lot more coming up on this show. netflix rebounding from a knee-jerk drop in after-hours
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trading. later, jim bullard says recession fears are overblown. we're going to talk about his renewed call for more rate hikes later this hr.ou you're watching "squawk on the street," and this is cnbc. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit baird difference.com this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.
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>> we're just at the beginning of building general intelligence, and a world where we have thes i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by
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netflix this morning the streaming giant earning $2.88 per share in the most recent quarter that's 2 cents above estimates revenue slightly above estimates. they disappointed the street and netflix says it will delay the broad rollout of its crackdown on password sharing. it's now moved a little bit, rebounding regionally. b.o.a.'s security media and entertainment analysis is with us curious what you thought as these numbers rolled out a lot of folks getting a little more anxious about what's happening here. >> the headlines weren't great at first if you go below the surface, there's actually a lot of positive news, so the password sharing is working that's the most important thing. they said that canada survived
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the rollout. that will impact in a positive way. we don't know if a member of a household will come on as a subscriber or add-on the basic-plus ads tier is $6.99. the company said in the u.s. the revenue is above the standard here, which is $15.49. the rollout will begin this quarter of this month. the third thing that was a big positive was they actually blow away free cash flow and the fourth was they finally executed on the buyback they have a $5 billion optimization ice small.
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$400 million or 1.2 shares, but that will exaccelerate as the yr progresses >> jessica, i love this company. i'm addicted to this service my family is addicted to this service. the question is, though, i think, how fast can they grow and in a relative business where everybody is thinking not only am i adding new services, but am i cutting back i go back to the conversation we had with andy from amazon. how do you think that may or may not affect netflix long term >> i think the shocking thing, which is sort of to your point, is the standard tier with advertising will be at $6.99 so if consumers choose to pay less for the credible amount of product, they can. they'll just have to, you know,
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with stand advertising, with ultimately will be targeted, so it makes it more interesting, and it will be less cluttered than anything you see on linear television that will be an incredible offer. >> is your sense, just broadly now, sort of stepping away from simply netflix right now, in terms of how people are looking at streaming, when you model it out, how many streaming subscriptions do you think the average american household is going to have long term? >> it's hard to answer wide range. netflix will obviously be in the top tier we believe it will be netflix, disney+, and max, which is the new name for hbomax. they'll have the widest breadth and depth of content they all will have advertising as well, so they will be a value
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option the average consumer watches, i don't know, six to eight to nine channels, but there are different people in my household. what i watch is not necessarily what my husband or children would watch. presumably the same for you. the world is moving from linear to streaming which is going to drive a bot or advertising >> you mentioned maxx. were you a brand of the shift in change do you think that's going to be a success? >> i thinkites going to be enormous for the same price consumers will get multiples with a better combination and better product because the downloads almost never worked, and it will be -- the original looked really interesting as well.
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yes. one thing i found out about warner brothers, there are things consumers haven't seen in decades. >> thank you i appreciate it. i apologize, thank you, thank you. nice to see you. when we return, bank of america's ceo brian moynihan opening up about the composition of the bank's portfolio. we've got the details next. and later tesla is set to report after the "closing bell." the e ve make cutting price again. the details coming up at the bottom of the hour. >> announcer: this cnbc program sponsored by brighthouse financial. build for what's ahead ♪ ♪
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now to the banks i spoke to bank of america's ceo brian moynihan yesterday after the company reported earnings. those numbers came in better than expected and net interest income was up sharply, about 25%. moynihan's take on the economy is a recession is coming, but not a harsh one. >> we see and our experts see having a mild recession, which if they could do that, unemployment never got up above 4.5, that would be a heck of an accomp accomplishment. >> bank of america's portfolio was just over $99 billion at the end of the quarter that's down from $800 million three months earlier but it's considerably more than some other big banks. moynihan explained why. >> the rates we have to put on trillions of dollars because we
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have 1.9 trillion. you have a trillion of loans, it goes into cash you look at these things and they keep going up a lot of it is floating rate a lot of it was fixed rate that keeps marching forward. at the end of the day, we had 25% more net interest income in last year's fourth quarter and this year's first quarter. we thought we had 14.4 billion dollar we had 14.6. it's the way you extract deposits it's been writing it off that was the plan. once we figured out the deposits, we're going to stay in the industry because of the stimulus and things that went on during the pan depth, we had to invest even when short-term rates were zero to produce revenue, otherwise, we run the business for no profit. you know, $8 billion after taxes is a pretty good quarter.
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>> the bank's deposits swelled during the pandemic by nearly $500 million it's kind of hard to get your head around those numbers. the big question is how sticky are those numbers? it came from both consumers because consumers overall were dealing with more cash it came from commercial activity but a $500 million gain from 2019 before the pandemic. >> later this morning we're going to hear from morgan stanley and several regal banks including bancorp. coming up, fed's bullard says recession fears are overblown and the fed keeps hiking we'll talk about this as we head to break here ooh is a look at yesterday's s&p 500, winners and losers
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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. taking a look at the futures, you're going o see some red arrows across the board. dow futures down by 145. nasdaq down by 45, s&p futures off by 22. earnings coming in at a dollar a share for citizens financial. revenue roughly in line at $1.3 million, this is the important part, falling 4.7% compared to the previous quarter that stock down. you're watching it in real time here down about 6.37%. st. louis fed president jim bullard says recession fears are overblown and the fed should continue raising interest rates to counter inflation, bullard making those comments in an interview with reuters yesterday. joining us now, peter boockvar,
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a cnbc contributor on the fed, we now know for a fact there is quite a bit of division on what some of the different players are thinking amount this point, austan goolsbee on last week intimating he would pause right now he wanted to wait to see more data, but his body language was he thought maybe the last one might not have been the right move, and the other one, you need to think long and hard about. is that normal, peter? do you normally see that on a fed? >> well, this is actually the first time where there's some vocal dissension i happen to believe and agree with austin that there's nothing wrong with pausing just because you're pausing doesn't mean your inflation fight is over. there's a meeting six weeks later after the main meeting we had a big event on march 9th.
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i look at the economy, pre-march 9th and post-march 9th it will be interesting to see how it plays out the fed is looking at it on the data >> you're talking about the regional banks and the problems there. >> yes i mean, if you're a loan officer at a bank right now, you're not really aggressively looking to expand your loan book. you're looking to reduce it. you're looking to actually contain risks. so that in itself slows things down it's the small and medium-sized business that's going to be most impacted it's not just those businesses we've seen a tryup in all parts of the markets, whether it's ipos this is not an event this is a process that takes time and slows things down it results in slower activity,
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slower cash flows, which then leads to potentially slower hiring and less capital spending, and it takes time to play out i think the fed and bullard and others are making decisions right now on very much rearview mirror data. >> so, peter, your hesitance in raising rates doesn't necessarily have to do with thinking something else could be broken with another 25 or 50 basis points you don't think that that -- that the tide goes down a little more and you find someone else without a swimsuit you're saying that what's already happened is good for half a point or 3 or 75 basis point of credit contraction based on what's already happened do you think if they go up they're risking breaking something else or not? >> i think they very much are. i mean if they -- they should be in the risk management business. when you think about what's the reward of hiking another 25
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relative to the risks, then to your point, which austin estimated that the credit slowdown could lead to be the equivalent of up to 40% rate hikes, you should wait to see. keeping rates at current levels for a longer period of time in itself is a constant form of tightening because the problem the economy has right now is everyone's loan who's coming through this year is going to get repriced at a much higher interest rate than the loan that is maturing, and that borrower is going to have to work out a deal with their banks, have to come it with more equity, whether you're in real estate or whether you're in others by that has debt loans coming through this year. ice going to be a big problem. that's what happens when in 15 years you have no rates and there's a vertical shift to the upside
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there's a constant bleed each month for those who have debt coming through or floating rates that are constantly settling. >> you saw that yesterday with walking away from big buildings in los angeles if it gets to the point where all of those real estate companies are willing to say we're just going to walk away from this and leave it for the banks, i think that's the question of what is the next leg down from this what are you going to do you're going to reprice it and reprice it sharply. >> banks don't want a building that's 6 0% occupied. they don't want it they're going to have to work out a deal of some sort. officers are multi-challenged. you look at a family where you have a 90% occupancy rate. but if you have a capital corporate structuring that's
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something you'll want the high ten at occupancy we saw that just a week ago where the owner of houston apartment buildings that bought it in 2021 that took on too much debt didn't turn out their debt, had floating debting and a year and a half later, they're selling it to some distressed buyer. so it gets back to, again, the balance sheet and those that didn't trim out the debt, assumed that rates would stay low forever, and that's what happens when you get, like i say, a short rise in interest rates in just one year after basically a flat line for 15 years. >> bullard said he's not sure there's going to be a recession. there will be a recession, it will be a mild recession deep recession and what year, fast >> it's going to be a mild recession. if it's mile, it will be drawn out, if it's sharp, it will be quick. a mild recession is not necessarily a good thing if it
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lasts a bunch of years. >> okay. and it comes this year or next >> i think it probably started in q2 post-svb. >> all right if it's already started, it means 12 months from now -- >> it will be 19% higher on the s&p. >> possible. coming up, chip check. that's a hard one to say we're going to dig into quarterly numbers from a major supplier the chip companies will do that. nasdaq in the next hour with the company's ceo adena freeman. a reminder, you can get the best of squawk pod. you can listen any time. we're coming right back.
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welcome back to "squawk box. time now for a read on the health of the chip sector. christina parse nova joins us with a look at some quarterly results from asml. they're a key -- i should say the key supplier to chipmakers christina. >> they are. they're maintaining their beat why we care. asml makes really expensive machines they have a monopoly over the market their earnings give us insight into how other earnings are
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doing. it comes despite the overall tech backdrop and chips to china, asml's third biggest customer q1 net bookings are showing some signs of weakness, down 46% year over year and likely why the company did not raise its 2023 guide an they still see, quote, mixed signals on demand as customers, we through inventory that's what they pay attention to much of their weakness came from memory makers. they warned they would be spending less, spending less or its biggest company which makes the chips macing estimates for a second quarter in a row. we'll get more details on that tomorrow morning up in of this bodes well for asml, but it might weather a downtown given the push for chips. you have the likes of tsmc in arizona or intel means new
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machines from asml. >> okay, kristina. you know, what i've never understood is how -- they truly are a monopoly. >> 80% they contribute 80% of the market a machine can cost over a million dollars. it's not cheap. >> is it a patent story? >> it's a story for a lot of companies. >> kristina, thank you appreciate it. google plans to launch its first foldable smartphone sometime in june that's according to interj investigations by cnbc it plans to announce the device code name felix on may 10. the phone will cost upwards of $1,700 and compete with samsung's galaxy fold. they've offer a swap on phones
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or offer a pixel watch for those who buy a pixel phone. >> when you text someone and it's green, don't you go, what's wrong with this person >> because they're not on apple. >> yes. >> i also love to know if it's delivered, not delivered. >> right i feel bad for them. it's like, oh, geez. >> there are people who actually like it for technical reasons, but if you're a social person. >> who buys these -- there's a bunch of people on android. >> there are. >> a bunch of more people on android than apple. >> a lot of people in india. >> you cop to it you go, oh, my god, it's green. >> sometimes -- i'll get green and think it's not working. >> i question the whole relationship of the person. >> i don't i feel bad i know there are people in my family who don't do it and they can't be on any of the text chats, the same one. >> i'm kidding but i d 'do lo like the blue. >> you're about very tribal.
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>> tell me about it. cnbc is learning about lululemon is looking to sell its fitness mirror to hydro. they sell rowing machines. unclear whether they're going to move forward with it they're selling it for $5 million. lululemon said it took $443 million in charges related to mirror, surprise, surprise, and said hardware sales were below expectations the mirror product which once retailed for $1,500 now sells for as low as $995 and requires a $39 a month subscription price it ooh's cool product i checked it out there was supposed to be their entree into it to do it yorngs view to decide you're going full on you have to do the mirror, get into other sort of hardware -- the
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hardware, software business, it's a hard one. peleton has -- >>think about it. >> so did they buy in stock or in cash, do you know >> i don't know. i actually think they might have -- i don't want to misspeak on this one you know, they basically wrote down the whole thing. >> there are times when you don't care if you misspeak but on this one you don't want to. >> on this one i don't want to misspeak. >> okay. but usually it's okay. >> well, if i said i think it's all cash and it turns out that it's not all cash -- >> right. >> -- then what? then i'm misspoken i don't want to say. >> we always try to and certainly don't succeed, speaking for myself. >> all right. when we come back, tesla cutting the price of several of its vehicles ahead of its quarterly results. we've got the details after the break. and a reminder you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app
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tesla cut prices on some of its model y and model 3 vehicles in the united states yesterday those cuts range from $2,000 to $3,000 we'll learn more about how this year's price cuts have impacted the bottom line because tesla is due to report quarterly results after today's closing bell tesla is, of course, reporting those results after the close and for a preview of what to expect, we want to bring in garrett nelson, the vice president and senior equity analyst at crfa research and, garrett, you have a strong buy on tesla what do you anticipate hearing today, what do you hope to hear from the company >> sure, thanks for having me. tesla has a tremendous track
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record recently in terms of earnings execution they have beat now on 13 of the last 14 quarters now on the bottom line. i know the price cut announcements have given a lot of investors anxiety, but we think really the net impact of that is that eps growth from last year to this year is going to be sort of flattish they earn $4.07 last year. i think you're coming in this year, i think you're going to end up seeing earnings sort of flattish with that number. what we're looking for is that the long-term story remains in tact looking out to next year, we're looking at 38% eps growth year over year. we know they're about to start producing the cybertruck they're about to break ground on a new factory in monterey, mexico and still ramping up the new factories that opened last year in austin and berlin. so really everyone is looking for -- the bulls are looking for
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that the long-term story remains in tact. >> garrett, elon musk himself talked pretty recently about what a difference it makes when you can lower the price point, that the demand is always there, it is just whether or not people can actually pay the price and there was a story yesterday in new jersey that they're actually ending their electric vehicle rebate program because the demand just has been too high, they're running out of money, there is too much demand for it if you start to see states that are no longer funding this because they don't have the money they had before, if you see the federal programs run into snags along the way what does that do for electric vehicle demand overall, what does that mean to manufacturers then have to do to lure in the buyers >> yes, so, you think this most recent price cut announcement, they just announced is really a response to the treasury department's updated guidelines regarding battery sourcing for evs. tesla responded by, you know,
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the net impact is that the federal ev tax credit was cut in half for certain versions of the model 3 and model y. so tesla responded by lowering prices on those versions by somewhat equal amount. so, you know, at the end of the day, evs are still a very small percentage of the overall u.s. new vehicle market last year, about 6% of all new vehicle sales were evs so, we think, you know, there is a lot of new -- a lot of new models coming to market and we're very skeptical in terms of, you know, the sales prospects for many of these models for tesla, we're not there is a lot of visibility in terms of cybertrucks very ration count. the model 3 and model y remain the best-selling evs in the u.s. by a wide margin and we're bullish long-term on the earnings growth for tesla. >> what are the numbers you're going to watch most closely after the bell if someone is trying to do a quick readthrough, figure out if this
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is good or bad for the stock >> i think everyone is focused on the gross margin line tesla maintains they can post a 20% plus gross margin. so i think everyone is focused on that. i think they're going to be looking at the impact that the price cuts are having on the gross margin line. but also the guidance. they introduced 2023 volume guidance of 1.8 million units, up from 1.3 million that they shipped last year. so any changes to that volume guidance, but we think, you know, they're probably going to maintain it and also there is room for some upside to that number >> all right, garrett, thank you. we'll be watching. appreciate your time >> thank you coming up, two big ceo interviews ahead we're going to talk to nasdaq ceo adena friedman the company reports quarterly numbers. and then united airlines ceo scott kirby weighs in on the
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carrier's quarterly loss and forecast for profitability "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ let newage products transform your garage into an area of your home you can be proud of. modular steel cabinets let you pick and choose the storage solutions to keep your garage organized, with overhead racks and shelving, slat wall, workstations and flooring that let you create a showroom garage to call your own. designed for diy installation. all you need is one weekend to take your garage from unusable
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what will you create? ibm. let's create. good morning earnings in focus.
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travelers, nasdaq and morgan stanley all on deck in this hour we will bring you the numbers as they hit united airlines posting a loss for the quarter, but saying it expects a profit as the summer travel season heats up. we'll hear from the ceo scott kirby. and fox news avoiding a trial with dominion voting over its landmark defamation lawsuit against the network. we'll have the latest on the settlement and media landscape as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square andrew ross sorkin with becky quick and joe kernen u.s. equity futures, a whole bunch of earnings reports coming in this morning and this afternoon as well. the dow off by 133 points.
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nasdaq down 89 points. the s&p off 21 points. treasuries, we have been keying off that pretty much all the time at this point the 10-year note, 3.261. two-year, 4.625. on the back of jim bullard comments about having to raise rates. dow component travelers just reporting results. the company coming in with an adjusted amount of $4.11 a share, better than $3.55 the street was expecting first quarter revenue came in at $9.4 billion that was also substantially better than the street was looking for. i think the street was looking for $9.18 billion. the board of directors increasing the quarterly dividend by 8% to a dollar a share and authorizing $5 billion of share repurchases looking through some of the numbers really quickly, personal insurance, that's the area that people have been watching so closely because all of the
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personal insurers have had higher costs of replacement for replacing houses or cars travelers said it has been going state by state trying to get higher premiums. and seems like it is doing some of that. the underwriting gain was actually -- underwriting loss of $77 billion, down from a gain of $124 million a year earlier. they did look like they brought in more net written premiums in domestic and international so we'll continue to keep an eye on that. >> want to get to dom chu right now, a look at this morning's premarket movers what do you got, dom >> a slate of regional bank earnings that are in focus for traders and investors this morning. we'll start off with late breaking ones in this past hour. citizens financial is currently just about flat in the premarket trade, volumes around 5,000 shares have changed hands so far. this is a rhode island-based banks. it reported profits and revenues that fell shy of analyst estimates. deposits were down around 4.7% quarter over quarter
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but those levels for deposits were characterized as stable by management net interest margins also flat relatively on a year over year basis. citizens financial down about .1%. then u.s. bancorp, the super regional bank just around up 1% now, around 25,000 shares of volume earnings and revenue both topped estimates and the deposit base grew at u.s. bank around 5.9% on a quarter by quarter basis consumer finance company syncrony financial deposits grew by around 3.75% on that subsequential quarter over quarter basis. western alliance, one of the embattled u.s. regional banks swept up in the fallout from silicon valley bank's collapse shares are surging right now by around 18% on 80,000 shares of
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premarket volume earnings better than expected. revenues that did fall shy deposits fell 11% quarter over quarter, but we saw that disclosed earlier this month western alliance said it saw deposit growth over the first couple of weeks of this month, indicating more of that stability. it is certainly something that we'll keep a close eye on here as well. i'll send things back over to you guys. >> dom, thank you for that we'll keep our eyes on all the regionals now. >> we're watching shares of netflix, i told you yesterday to watch netflix. and you misunderstood me and like you already do. >> i saw a fun new show coming out on thursday. >> for someone who doesn't watch and gives me grief about it -- >> "diplomat." deborah khan it is fabulous and fun. >> what is that about? >> it is about a diplomat, who goes to europe, and it is sort of like a west wing meets international intrigue with a little bit of homeland in there.
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>> what was the last one you liked, the fleetwood mac thing, did you finish that? >> that was great. daisy jones and the six. >> did you finish that >> yeah, you got to watch it. >> the diplomat is my favorite restaurant down in -- a plug for the diplomat the streaming giant, maybe i'll get a table near a waiter next time, the -- penny youngman. the streaming giant earned $2.88 a share in the most recent quarter. revenue was slightly lower than expected netflix said it will delay the broad rollout of its crackdown on password sharing. this morning, wedbush adding the stock to its best ideas list saying the results underscore the streaming ability to generate more free cash flow this is going to affect me, getting out of that dvd by mail business when is the last time -- >> i signed up for it that long ago. >> when is the last time someone -- i mean, they don't
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even have -- >> i didn't realize they still -- >> they don't have anyone in that department anymore. you go down there -- >> i didn't realize they were still doing that. >> do you have a dvd player? >> we all have one -- >> there is one in the basement. >> do you have a beta max player >> no. >> no, you do not. okay >> let's talk earnings and equities with stephanie link, chief investment strategist at hightower and cnbc contributor. and i watch cnbc, and you're on with the judge yesterday, weren't you? and you did -- you got -- i don't know, you're pulling your horns in on some of these things, aren't you, because of earnings, the estimates are still too high have you gotten more, have you gotten less sanguine in recent sessions, steph? >> well, good morning. i think it is prudent to be more balanced, joe. there are so many uncertainties. we know the fed and what they're
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doing and we know that the economy is going to slow and we know earnings are probably going to slow as well. we don't know by how much. so, for me, i've been trying to take profits where i have them, which i think is a good thing to do and try to balance the portfolio. so, i do have some defensives in healthcare, consumer staples, but i also still think that there are opportunities and good values in some of the cyclicals, especially those companies that have exposure to china and reopening in china i feel like we're all sort of ignoring what is going on with the reopen in china and the gdp came in better than expected, retail sales came in better than expected and i think that that is going to continue, not only the one bright spot, right but that will have spillovers to europe as well i think you have international momentum that is a little bit better than expected maybe it offsets some of the slowdown we're seeing here that's why i want to have some exposure on the cyclical side. i want to have some of the defensives as well
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>> that's what i was trying to figure out, how you felt about cyclicals. yesterday, i thought you were getting less bullish about cyclicals. the ones that could benefit from china, you think you can get some exposure there, and maybe minimize the effects of a slowdown here if there is a recession? >> that's kind of the way i'm thinking i mean, if you listen to a couple of the companies that have reported as of late, like lvmh, right, they had 30% growth in china, right. so i think that the consumer in china is actually probably going to do pretty well and so that's why i own starbucks, i own nike, i own estee lauder, i own wynn resorts. the macao numbers year to date are running up like 55% year to date so, i think there are some bright spots i think you have to be a stock picker but you got to be careful. i don't want to own china pure plays, but i want to own companies that have exposure there and i think that those expectations are still pretty
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muted. >> that's like a -- if you need to know how the reopening is going, you just look no further than macao, i think. that's a big number. >> yeah. >> 55. >> yeah. and we get -- we get las vegas sands later today. we're going to get some data points i think the stocks have had a nice run, the gaming stocks, right? i think they're still down so much from a two-year basis and prepandemic levels, so i think there are some opportunities there. >> we had peter boockvar on earlier. he says that maybe the slowdown, a mild recession that could last longer than a deep one, they have already started if that's true, that's -- that has been historically a time to get more bullish, weirdly enough, on stocks because a year and a half later, they're normally higher. is that going to be the case this time and are we already in a recession? >> okay, i do not think we're in
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a recession by any means i think if you look at some of the economic data, it is actually perking up, right we know manufacturing is crummy. we see the isms and pmis and the new orders we have an empire state manufacturing number this week that was so much better than expected, and i don't really pay too much attention to the regional manufacturing data points, but if you look at shipments and look at orders and that sort of thing, it was hardly recessionary. if you look at housing, we know housing is weak. but look at the starts and the permits numbers yesterday, they were better than expected, right, because rates are coming down and you have that pent up demand we know the consumer on the services side is hanging in there, and we know that the job market is pretty healthy, even though the numbers are starting to get a little bit squishy, if you will, in terms of initial claims and avp and nonfarm payroll starting to climb a little bit higher. but still strong, joe. so i don't think you're in a recession. atlanta fed came out with their
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gdp number yesterday at 2.5% growth for gdp for the first quarter. i don't think we're in a recession yet. i think we're going to slow in the second quarter and into the second half of the year. it remains to be seen if it is a recession or a soft landing, but right now i don't think we're there. >> okay. all right, steph, were you in studio yesterday -- or we you at the big board? did i see you? >> yeah. >> yeah? >> yeah, we were the -- downtown >> you go in for wapner? >> i go in for wapner. i would come in for you. i'm happy to do that i'm up bright and early on a treadmill at 3:00 a.m. >> what is he like in person >> he's just so -- huge presence on air is he nice in person what is he like when the camera turns off? >> he's very nice. he's very, very nice very supportive. he's very supportive >> kidding
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but, you know, when you just watch someone on tv all the time, you never know stephanie, i'm exactly the same. am i not >> on air and off, you are wonderful. >> i would say you're a little less on air. >> less filtered >> no you're more filtered on air. >> on air? you better be. >> coming up -- >> or i wouldn't be here. >> -- adena friedman, nasdaq chair, she's here, this is her home, she'll talk ai, ipo offerings, the market impact of the banking fallout and so much more the company just reported results as well. we'll talk about all of it after the break. and later, an outlook ersector d airlines ceo scott kirby we're back after this.
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quarterly results out for the nasdaq, earnings coming in at 69 cents a share. that's 3 cents better than street was expecting revenue $914 million for the quarter. that was also ahead of estimates. for a look at the state of technology, the ipo landscape and more, we want to bring in nasdaq ceo and board chair adena friedman great to see you thank you for being here. >> great to be here. >> let's talk about some of the numbers. if you were looking at the markets and the ipo markets, we heard from all the banks, there is obviously not been a lot of
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m&a, but your business is diversified at this point. you have other things that really are coming in. >> we're really pleased we're continuing to show strong execution, even with this challenging market backdrop. i think that we had 4% overall growth in the business, and 7% growth in our analyzed recurring revenues which reflect the diversified portfolio we have today. our index showed some declines because of market performance even though we had a lot of upgrade inflows into our funds and we also have a challenging ipo environment, which -- however, despite that, we had really strong growth in our antifinancial crime business, 18% growth there, and we had our first win with our first tier out in a tier one client, a trillion dollar asset bank has chosen to use our broad solutions for -- with our antifinancial crime business so we're really excited about that, great milestone for us we continue to show growth
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across the platform. >> that's your biggest growing business right now >> it is our fastest growing business we're pleased to see we signed 42 clients in the quarter. and, again, we had a tier two client as well as tier one client come with us. >> in terms of ipos, new listings, there is not much improvement that you see if you look out for the rest of the year, is there >> i think right now we had 30 companies become public in the first quarter. we had a 91% win rate, so we're proud of that. but you're right it is a quiet environment right now. there are just under 150 companies that are looking to list on nasdaq when the market really kind of opens up and is receptive. i think that investors are wanting to see a more certain economic environment they want to understand where do the interest rates are allowed, where does inflation settle out? if they can see those two factors become more known, they'll be more confident in being able to predict the future so maybe wesee some growth and
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activity as we get later into the year but i think right now it continues to be quiet. >> that's the issue. if the fed stops raising rates, that gives them certainty, even if the rates are longer, higher for longer but if a lot of people think a recession is coming, even if it is a mild one, is that a tempering factor too >> it is a tempering factor. but the markets tend to run -- predict the future, right? so if they can say, okay, we now know the rates aren't going to go significantly higher than where they are, they also understand that inflation is starting to moderate and they can kind of see that as predicted -- a more predictable inflationary environment those are two macro factors that really factor into predicting future cash flows of the business i think that helps them underwrite that risk they have to look at the overall economic environment but even in more challenging environments, we have companies go public, because of the fact that investors aren't underwriting that company for today, what is that company going to do over the next five years and they assume a
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recession isn't going to last forever. companies can go public in a muted economic environment. >> do you miss the days of the spacs, i see it on your face do you miss it at all? are they gone for good >> we have focussed on companies going public but with spacs, that was a helpful factor in terms of bribrif i of bringing more companies to the market. >> will it be in a time capsule with nfts? >> i think we have to recognize that spacs were -- became very active because of the fact we had a free money environment and in an environment where money costs money, which is the environment we're in, and will be in now for probably a long period of time, i think it is a very different -- >> do you think those will come back >> we had spacs come into the market since 2010. they have always been a small part of the market they became a big part when the interest rate environment was so receptive to them. >> do you think they have been tainted now? >> we're still seeing spacs come
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out into the market and they still find combinations and i think there is -- that's a cottage industry that exists for a long time. >> adena, let's talk about ai. nasdaq has obviously is home to a lot of technology companies and also you're a market that really uses technology to -- for everything that you're doing you see the debate on ai where do you come down on it do you use ai here at the -- >> we do we have been working hard over the last decade in fact to really make sure that we modernize our technology stack, that we bring more of our technology into the cloud, that we turn our services more into sas services and our markets, we have been modernizing our markets to bring them into the cloud. we had our first options market go into the cloud at the end of last year, second coming the end of this year the fact that we have that capability and underpinning in our infrastructure allows us to take advantage of ai we use it in our antifinancial crime solutions. it is a core part of those
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solutions. that is why -- >> we're trying to root out criminal behavior within the -- the broader financial systems, the banks as well as in the markets. as a result of that, i think our solutions truly are the best in the world because of the use of ai and embedded in those solutions. now we're starting to bring ai into the markets we have our first ai driven order type that is on file with the s.e.c., which is designed to improve fill rates and actually while minimizing market impacts. we're looking at how can we use ai in the markets to have more dynamic order types to improve the experience for investors >> you see the debate about ai and is it going too far too fast, do we need to stop and slow things down, and i guess if you start playing out worst case scenarios, nuclear launches are the worst, but the markets wouldn't be great either if some ai took over and you couldn't shut it down. >> the way to look at it, ai is a tool it can be used for good purposes, it can be used for bad
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purposes and definitely is a fast evolving space but my view is that technological innovation is an unstoppable force and if there are the potential for very bad use cases, it is really, really incumbent upon ourselves to protect the financial system, to protect the markets, that we also get to use that technology and we're positioned to use the technology to the best of our ability in order to protect against the -- >> are the bad guys using ai >> you have to assume that nefarious players do not have regulators they're going to use it regardless of what they say. the regulators need to think about how can this technology actually be harnessed for the right purposes, how can we bring it into the market, how can we bring it into the financial system in a way to protect, in a way to make sure we combat the bad players? that's a big part of our strategy. >> have you seen bad guys trying to use ai already and tried to -- >> i think you have to -- within
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fraudulent behaviors and other things, you have to assume that they're using advanced algorithms to figure out how to get themselves across the financial system what is great about our antifinancial crime solutions, we can see the criminals kind of moving across the banks, not just within one bank, and that makes our ai capabilities much stronger on -- >> we all sit here sort of dazzled by chatgpt and sort of the -- >> it is a lot of fun. >> the poetry that it can create but it feels like ai has already been in the financial markets for so long and the question is how advanced that really is and maybe we don't really understand it. >> there are a lot of different types of ai and we do use reinforcement learning, computer vision and other things to help us manage our markets and we actually use predictive ai to predict the way that our infrastructure might be changing, so that we have to -- we can kind of use that to make sure we're allocating our
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servers the right way. there are a lot of different ways to use ai beyond generative ai as we look at this next generation, which is generative ai with people like chatgpt, it is a new thing, it is exciting, but it is just one way that you can use machine learning and reinforcement learning to drive really interesting outcomes for investors as well as -- >> i wonder when it made the move from computer-aided design, computer-aided manufacturing, computer-aided engineering, that was all artificial intelligence. it was chatgpt that was the quantum leap to where we talk about this thing. >> it is so tangible and also as we think about the use of gpt, one of the great things we can use it for is we call it a kind of co-pilot for coding it allows you to be more efficient in coding. >> so my question to you, though, as somebody -- i don't know if you own the data, is it your data? someone is going to want to
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train off of everything in here. right? someone is going to separately want to train off of everything on the nyse and the other exchanges and the -- and off of these various terminals. and if you're a bank, you're going to want that information, so that you have all of it at your fingertips. is that a business you create? is that a business you license your data to and how much of it is a business you're scared you're going to be ripped off because it is just all going to get scraped and you don't get paid for any of it. >> we have been managing our data for decades i ran the data business for a long time. so, we license our data out to -- billions of people have access to nasdaq's market data for the purpose -- for whatever purpose. >> here's the thing. right now, that information is being licensed >> it is being licensed and we have ways we can -- >> if somebody decides to scrape it once, they now have it forever. >> we have the ability -- well, first of all -- >> to learn off the technology, to learn off the data.
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>> but the value of the data is often in the real time element of it. it is kind of -- so therefore as they continue to -- and we -- >> we do have the ability to make sure that if they're scraping it, we get paid for that >> but how do you hknow -- i'm not talking about scraped in the classic sense, but right now my understanding is if one of these services can just read that data once, and see it once, it can then use it forever. >> of course so, that's what we call time series data. if you kind of, yes, people use time series data to help them develop models there is value to that but the markets provide that data on a 15-minute delay for free that is already out there. and on a consolidated basis for free i think it is the real time data that we license out and on the back of that, we're very good at making sure that we know how that data is being used across
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the platforms. >> adena, thank you. >> thank you very much great to see you >> good to see you united airlines reporting a quarterly loss, but forecasting a profit for the second quarter as the summer travel season picks up similar to delta or at least the top -- the bottom line wasn't great, but then the stock is up we'll hear from united ceo scott kirby in a few minutes we're also expecting results from morgan stanley in just a couple of minutes. those numbers and market reaction straight ahead. abbott labs, adjusted $1.03 a share, meeting the street estimates of 99 cents. company says it continues to make good progress recovering market share in its infant formula business the stock is up 2% in the premarket. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc time now for today's aflac trivia question. what year did mcdonald's debut
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the hamburglar the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues ahhh! coach k, there's a goat here. the story of my life. no coach, there is a goat here! whaaa! what's this? a thousand dollar hospital bill? but i have good health insurance! gaaaaaap! did you say 'gap'? he's talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. but with aflac, you can get money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? gaaaap! aflac! gaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪
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now, the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year did mcdonald's debut
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the hamburglar the answer, 1971 all right, welcome back to "squawk box. the futures this morning still under pressure dow down 100 s&p down 20. the nasdaq off 90. we had some earnings. >> morgan stanley is out the stock is -- up a little bit more a second ago, but up a little bit after the company reported $1.70, that's the number that came out estimates of $1.62, see the stock is up a little revenue is pretty good the revenue estimate was 13.923. and the company reported $14.5 billion. and then we get into sort of into the weeds investment banking revenue, $1.33 billion, assess management net revenue $4.73 billion. see, investment -- 1.3 wealth management revenue, wealth management, we know
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gorman made a good go of it there, $6.6 billion. and institutional security, $6.8 billion. those are two of the biggest obvious revenue drivers at this point. used to really like compensation expenses, andrew. >> you know what -- >> $6.4 billion. >> what does it say as a ratio that was always the -- >> hold on. >> the stat. that's like a 2008 stat. we don't even focus on that anymore because the ratio is actually more reasonable than it used to be you used to be 50%. >> a lot fairer. >> i don't know if it is fairer. but if you were a shareholder -- >> i banned that word from my vocabulary when other people use it, they use it in all kinds of ways that i don't think is fair. sorkin, kerrey russell, the diplomat. >> yes. >> she's a freaking russian spy.
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>> in the americans. >> she's not a russian spy -- >> not in this >> did they check her background when they made her an american -- people didn't know she was a spy. her kids didn't know she was a -- >> you're getting your shows confused now. >> did you know that >> i was looking at gorman, the comments he was making for morgan stanley strong results with a return on tangible equity of 17% in a very unusual environment. >> no big deals. no megadeals >> fixed income revenue was strong investment banking activity continued to be constrained in his words. we know that's been the case for everybody. >> old gorman put up that stock versus almost anybody else >> got to be very proud guy. >> he does >> yep. >> i sat down with him in davos, false humility he wouldn't trash anyone else or take credit or anything. >> part of it was the function that -- he said this, they came
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so close to failure, so close to failure, and that's what changed the game in some ways you can argue that never happened at goldman sachs and that's why goldman never really pivoted its business in the same way. >> that's my argument. >> he must look at that. look at that the return of goldman sachs, that must be -- must think about that before he falls asleep. >> still to come, united airlines posting a loss after the bell last night, forecasting a profit for the second quarter. we'll talk to the ceo scott kirby in an exclusive interview. we'll head to the skies after the break. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so... ...glad we did this. [kid plays drums]
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united airlines, first quarter loss, but expects profits to return in second quarter if demand heats up phil lebeau joins us now with a special guest. hey, phil. >> hey, joe. scott kirby, ceo of united airlines let's talk about the first quarter results and then talk about the forecast for q2. smaller than expected loss, but i think people are a little bit confused about march, when you said, look, we're starting to see things slowing down. what happened there? >> yeah, really what happened was seasonality has changed.
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and there is less business traffic, more leisure traffic, that really impacts january and february so, you know, really seasonality is changing, we're trying to figure it out. the other thing that happened in march is the silicon valley banking scare did have a near term impact on bookings. double digit decline in business demand, literally overnight. it is back on trend, it has come right back because of it is a scare, not a crisis. those are the two things that drove the first quarter. >> what does that say to you about business travel and corporate demand you mentioned beforehand, it is like we're on a nice edge. one little thing can set things to slow down, right? >> if i look at the macro economy, bigger picture, it feels strong the last week, bookings have been setting records on bookings that story about silicon valley bank i think indicates what others said, the economy is fragile. it is on a knife's edge. wouldn't take much to push it over silicon valley bank was a perfect example of that. the base case remains really strong, also important for us to prepare for the possibility that
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something like silicon valley bank goes from a scare to a crisis and how do we prepare for that and stay on track in that environment. >> where is the strongest demand domestically right now is it leisure, is it corporate, is it small business >> leisure is by far the strongest demand international leisure is the strongest, small business is more than 100% recovered in terms of volume and well over 100% in terms of revenue large corporate accounts industries like tech that really have stayed in the doldrums since covid began and, look, you watch their -- they're laying off people, they're not going to have to travel it is going up but mostly it is strong. that's the one area that remains weak >> scott, becky has a question for you. becky, go ahead. >> thanks, phil. scott, good to see you how do you prepare for a fragile economy? it feels like you guys are running all out trying to
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service huge amounts of traffic, and travel if you're preparing for electronic the only thing that leads me to think is do you get to the point where you have fewer flights coming in, so more jammed in case things shut down overnight? >> well, you know, look, several things that happen first, if we have a weaker economy, more than likely we'll have lower jet fuel prices it is not just oil prices, diesel and -- the spread has come down pretty significantly in anticipation of a weaker economy. that's a big tailwind for us second thing we can do, we do have the ability to control capacity in the short-term if we need to. the more important thing we have done is prepare a balance sheet for this environment we have triple the amount of cash that we had prepandemic the great thing is we borrowed at fixed interest rates that are about 5%, earning 4.5% to 5% on the cash now, we have free money almost that we can use if we need it. and the environment gets worse, pay down $4.6 billion of debt in
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the last 12 months we set the balance sheet up to be able to ride through something. we have a lot of leverage. and the fact is our base case remains pretty strong, but we have a lot of flexibility if things do turn down. >> you're expecting a busy summer demand is growing fast, as is domestic is transatlantic the hot spot now this summer, but asia pacific, you're adding more flights there. what are you seeing in that region >> both regions are strong what happened in the long haul international is the supply dynamic. 21% larger across the pacific. ex-china, the rest of the industry 7% smaller. almost every global airline retired wide body airplanes, the supply is lower in totality than it was in 2019 and demand is a lot higher that balance will last for years
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to come. that's what's really driving the strength in the long haul. >> the 737 max, you have a number of them scheduled to be delivered later this year. you put them into your fleet as you add more to your fleet, does the potential slowdown in delays change that dynamic in terms of what you're expecting to do in the second half of this year >> this latest issue with boeing is a minor bump in the road. everything we know about it so far, they'll be back on track. what i would say also is prior to this, boeing seemed to have hit their stride they're starting to deliver airplanes early for us i feel pretty confident this is going -- not certain, but confident that this probably is going to be a minor bump in the road and boeing really seems to be getting the machine working and they'll be right back on track. i'm not terribly worried about it >> andrew has a question for you. andrew >> it has gone viral, but it is about culture and trying to balance things with flight attendants, how you train and approach difficult issues in terms of trying to get stuff
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done and everybody out and on the plane on time. at the same time as having some empathy, you saw this, anthony bass, toronto blue jays pitcher, writing over the weekend, the flight attendant of united made my 22 week old pregnant wife traveling with a 5-year-old and 2-year-old get on her hands and knees to pick up the popcorn mess by my youngest daughter are you kidding me when you read stuff like that, what do you think? >> well, look, i think overall -- i haven't seen that one, but overall our flight attendants are doing an amazing job. i see it every time in the statistics i look at customer surveys, nps scores, i hear it had i get on the airplanes from customers i see it when i get on the airplanes almost every time i walk on, there is two happy smiling flight attendants, i thank them for that every time it is the most important part of our service. travel is stressful. you walk on and have two smiling flight attendants greeting you at the front door.
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doesn't mean we're perfect we're not. it doesn't mean we're 100% but i think they're doing a really great job and that's one of the things that has changed the image, the perception, is leading to good results at united i think they're doing overall a great job and i'm really proud of them. >> ceo of united airlines -- say that again. >> i just -- i just said i'm going to get a news clipping service. i think there is probably 50 articles about that tweet. >> a conversation you and andrew will have to do in the future. guys, i'm going to send it back to you i've been told in my ear, wrap it up. back to you. >> okay. coming up on the other side, fox settling a defamation lawsuit by dominion voting systems and avoiding a trial we're going to discuss that and the media landscape including netflix after the break. take a look at the futures as we get so many earnings reports still coming in this morning dow off about 96 points now.
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tesla cut prices on some of its model y and model 3 vehicles
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in the united states yesterday those cuts range from $2,000 to $3,000 we'll learn more about how this year's price cuts have impacted the bottom line. tesla is due to report quarterly results after today's closing bell right now that stock off by about 2% coming up, fox and dominion voting systems reaching a settlement agreement, avoiding a trial. we'll bring you all the details and talk about what it means for the media stock. a reminder, get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime. stay tuned u' wchg quk x"ndyoreatin"sawbo a this is cnbc
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comcast business. powering possibilities™. welcome back to "squawk box. fox paying $787 million related to a lawsuit joining us, senior analyst at rosenblatt securities. tom, this is clearly a massive and huge payout. the question is is it the last there's still of course one more of these case with a bigger ask on the table the company has 3.2 billion.
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>> good morning. there's still going to be another payout market price has been established for fox not having to take this to trial. i think the bigger implication, though, in terms of management of the company and ultimately if heads are going to roll and whether things related to on-air apologies may need to occur, something that was not a condition of the settlement here are the shareholder derivative suits that are going to follow, shareholder derivative suits b when a shareholder sues on behalf of the corporation officers and directors for tran trantr transgressions of their duties to a company that is a whole different level
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of worry for the management and board there given what has come out, and while i would expect another big check to be written in the smartmatic case, the implication from the derivative here is probably a bigger drama. >> what do you think the future of fox is then and the future of the management, his son rupert and all of the other folks that run the company on a day-to-day basis? tom? >> el well, i think the implication, as i said, is probably not going to come from another settlement of this type. >> right but does that mean that your fired? do they have insurance against this are they being sued for hundreds of millions and is rupert
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murdoch personally being sued? >> what happens in a shareholder derivative suit typically directors and officers both have director and officer liability insurance and they're indem if i need by the corporation. when a shareholder sues to essentially pay back for damages you created, that indemnity and the officers' insurance may not cover them you're dealing with personal liability issues there, huge potential cost and damage. you're also dealing with settlement implications where the kind of oversight of the company going forward would be at issue and if oversight of the company going forward is being issued, that's when you could have management changes and board changes and the kind of things that people have been
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talking about, which were not going to emanate from these company lawsuits >> how do you think about this in the current valuation of the company and the future of it >> they have plenty of cash. it's about $1 a share after tax. i don't think there's insurance coverage for these particular settlements. i think certainly there's going to are more lawyering. they should have professional level attorneys making sure they don't get close to defaming anybody again. the issue tom speaks to is a big imponderable i've got a neutral rating on fox. i think the bigger issue is brands that people love but a lot of pressure on the pay tv ecosystem and these type of things are just in the
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background that you don't like to have. >> tom, i've been wondering if there weren't these additional shareholder problems, if the ratings didn't change one iota from any of this, do you think he'd just leave the status quo he's been known to say i don't care what mainstream media says, i don't care what anybody thinks i'm not convinced he make any changes at all they're by far and away the most watched cable network. well, all cable news ratings are down but in terms of whether this action has any impact on the ratings of fox so far, no, you couldn't see any >> so will he make any changes will he be forced to do things >> i think the tricky issue is
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going to be the campaign of the donald trump going forward and how they cover him because if wild, untrue statements are made, how they cover that going forward, echoing them versus clearly drawing a as a newsmaker, versus what they may be saying on air that suggests they are adopting that i with imagine there would be news going forward about that kind of coverage because otherwise they could end up in the first swags again and may paiing billion settlements going forward is not going it be welcomed when we return, a new bipartisan push to hold foreign investors accountable. plus, the state of retail
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earnings alert we've got a clear view now of
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the american banking sectors this morning as morgan stanley wraps up quarter reports from the big financial institutions meanwhile, a wild ride details straight ahead and fox going to be paying close to $8 huge million to settle a high-profile defamation lawsuit. are there more losses ahead for rupert murdoch's media giant final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" here on cbc. i'm bill kernen along with becky kwu quick and andrew ross sorkin
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yesterday wasn't great this morning morgan stanley has some pretty good numbers we heard from ula, united airlines the nasdaq down about 98 points, s&p down 24. treasuries maybe responding, the fed needs to stay the course and keep inflation front and center and mr. bullard not convinced we're in a slowdown or headed to one imminently maybe that's affecting things, which is weird if you don't get a recession, you'd think that would be good for stocks morgan stanley out with first quarter results. christina joins us with fresh comments >> profits have actually fallen 20% from a year earlier.
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i just got off the phone with morgan stanley's cfo and asked about that drap. she said the q1 benchmark was very high and that was before a period of high interest rates and the war on ukraine in the press release ceo james gorman said the investment banking has been constrained unlike goldman sachs, morgan stanley was able to beat estimates. she said she's prout of the investment banking result and the uncertainty leads to customers getting a little more comfortable with this high-ray environment, which has influenced their wealth management business. customers are moving their money into cash products and treasuries lastly i did ask about the reasonable banks and changes
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post march 10th. she said it did impact investment banking but overall it was negligible. the shares were up but i'll they it back to you, joe. down, there you go, down as you pointed out, year over year not great, affected by the macro environment that investment banks and other financials are in right now again >> exactly we entered a rate environment that increased so dramatically post that q1 quarter of last year that that's why a lot of banks are saying it's not necessarily the greatest benchmark but that was before the entire macro environment changed. so that is the big point they're trying to make nonetheless you're still seeing a little bit of strength from the banking side, specifically with fixed income.
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everything a. >> thanks, christina >> other key financial names roaring results. dom chu joins us with a wrapup on that. >> the regional bank story is a huge part p narrative. updates the last couple of hours, we'll start with the big one and look at super regional lender u.s.bank. the minnesota but period and deposits between the end of last year and did did klein by which is down right now just around call it 2% free market, now 3.5%, posting profits and deposits fell 4.7% between the
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end of '22 and the first quarter, but we're arkt and then there's sin crony financial, which is down fractionally premarket as well after the lender behind one of those credit cars you so it's down about 2/3 of 1%. and we're going to end on what i can only call a surge in western alliance right now the embattled arizona regional bank, that stock is 21% right now. it posted mixed results last night after the close but it did say that deposit growth so far which indicates that are things are stable izinging there. analysts over who put this, western alliance and a slate of
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its regional banks on and i'll send things back tofr to you >> dough posits are better and sup ps interest. our next guest says we are going to see more pressure on deposits i want to bring in victoria green, chief investment officer and also a cnbc contributor. we've seen some huge winners and huge losers as you start to work through the regional banks there's a lot investors are wondering. what's at the top of the list? >> citizen yeo said it was t this is not affecting everybody
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and western appliance is probably the best california of that everybody was tolding their breath i don't think we'll feel comfortable nm but for now, yes, deposits down marginally this was seasonal. they said their deposits only fell 1% more than they were expecting them to fall in q1 it there is a seasonal adjustment that that there isn't going to be this massive crisis impacting all these regionals. >> and the other issue is no matter how you look at, this deposits are going to get more expensive for any of these banks to hold. that's not just a reflection of what happens happened. it also a flb and everybody in
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the country starts realizing they're wanting a little more from what they're getting on their checking and savings aand that happened to citizens specifically they have seen that actually every bit of impact they saw were actually eaten up by their funding cost their net income should have risen more but because of these deposits costs rising, if you look now at the banking mixing of non-interest bearing deposits, we have definitely seen this creep over more to interest bear deeg posits and the cost of deposits becoming a real drag on earnings and something we're going to have to keep an eye on i think citizens is down because they had to reduce net interest income, took it down to 5-7%
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growth to 11-13% growth. both of these banks were profitable i think u.s. bank was record level for money on a quarterly basis. i would reference on u.s. bank is that it jumped from 3 or 4 basis points to 30 basis points, about a billion dollars more that's still only 30 basis points but we want to watch these net charge-offs. you want to see what's happening, especially as cre comes into focus >> the commercial real estate has been the big question, 80% of commercial real estate probably head by regional and mid-term banks whose got the most exposure? >> citizens, zion, co-mayor ka with citizens you got a little
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built more new york exposure, you have a little bit more coming from u.s. bankcorp because they're doing that merger with union bank the markets in san francisco in new york city on the office side are considered the most at risk. again, you we haven't actually seen the stress on these hit the earnings yet people are starting to did-to-dig further into these loans and it comes down to are they geographically diversified enough that they can weather some of the storm but i think you are going to see the pressure start in q2, 3 and 4 because we haven't seen a normalization and return to offices and we're seeing these loans go from income producing to none performance and not paying the rent. >> thank you very much it's good to see you.
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>> happy morning >> coming up, we're going to to talk again about what's going on. next, pushing for carb pratt insiders to play for the same rules as americans when it comes to trading you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc
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i screwed up. mhm. i got us t-mobile home internet. now cell phone users have priority over us. and your marriage survived that? you can almost feel the drag when people walk by with their phones. oh i can't hear you... you're froze-- ladies, please! you put it on airplane mode when you pass our house. i was trying to work. we're workin' it too. yeah! work it girl! woo! i want to hear you say it out loud. well, i could switch us to xfinity. those smiles. that's why i do what i do. that and the paycheck. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network, with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to 75% a year. and it's only available
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to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities™. there's a new push in washington for more accountability for foreign business executives whose stocks are traded on u.s. exchanges republican senator john kennedy and democratic senator chris van holland introducing a bill that would hold them to the same disclosure requirements as u.s. holders do the company said: this insider trading comes as a cost to american investors senator kennedy and senator van hollen join us right now
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it's good to you have both on, miling, friends this in i don't think all of our viewers understand what a great deal some of these foreign executives have had in the past they might know something about a situation. they might be able to make moves in their own portfolio and basically any of the adverse consequences are passed on to normal save holds are. >> let me give you an example. a couple of years ago alibaba was going to take an affiliate company public, and the chinese communist party got mad at alley mbah a moute and said you can't take the afill watt the you many $150 worth of alibaba stock.
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the very next day alibaba stock dropped 8% so that insider avoided some substantial losses in america, if it were an american company,nd everybody else would know he's not selling willing how many laws, senator van hollen, would you have to enact in addition to completely level the playing field the way chinese companies are able to operate globally in terms of disclosure and everything else how many steps would there be? this is just one small part of the whole problem. well, as you say, the goal here
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is to make sure all pla a couple years ago to close another loophole which allowed china and other places in the world to play by different accounting standards. in other words, we were not able to unexpect their ands can listed on the exchange store far the frmgs to make sure insiders, executives in china, russia or any other country don't get to play by a different set of rules, that disadvantages american investors and the american public. so we're looking through each of these areas to make sure that everybody plays by the same rules. >> this one seems pretty easy. just they'd have to do it within
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the same two business day they'd have to report what's happening. i think i could write that bill. >> that's right. there's no reason why someone, an executive in china, should get to put their disclosure in stale mail and have it stuck in somebody's office for weeks. >> would you tem u.s. investors and global investors to be very wary of investing in chinese-based companies in general in how much more work needs to be done here? >> well, i don't want to single out chinese companies, those in terms of chris's and i's bill, over 50% of these insider trades that aren't reported are by a chance company, but they're
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canadian kpd and there are israeli companies and i'm not saying that the china insiders are doing anything wrong i'm just saying they're ought to play by the same rules as american companies >> senator, you are don't need to look over at senator kennedy when you answer this but do you think we should pass a clean debt ceiling raise in your view or do you think the president should together or something else that speaker mccarthy wants. do you think it should be clean are do you think the president should naegt. i don't think we should default on our debts i think we podgorica pass a clean bill on time and then as you always, we should negotiate a frp and the president has
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presented his budget if you want to negotiate on the budge hugh got o pro potion and it would create chaos around the country and the world. >> senator kennedy, a lot of times when you don't take advantage of a situation, we may never negotiate. what would you tell senator van hallen >> i'm not going to vote to default on america's debt. but it passed. and i'm not going to vote to default on it. now, having said that rng but the most effective way right now to help jay powell reduce
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inflation is to slow the rate of growth of spending and debt accumulation and i think most people, unless they were in the quad playing frisbee during econ 101 understand that fiscal policy and monetary policy matters when you've got inflation and i'd like to see congress do its part and i'm hoping the president will come come to the table and negotiate in good faith. i understand that he's waiting on speaker mccarthy to present something but i think that's going to happen pretty quickly frisbee on the quad, i remember a lot of that. where i went to school, it was mostly the b school kid. no way testimony and that would explain a lot, wouldn't it frp.
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ceos who are on the fed. >> there you go. thank you both great to have you on i wish it was funny. key. when we come back, we're going to go inside first quarter but the company is not out of the wood yet we'll talk about what's next stemming from its 2020 media coverage "squawk box" will be right back. d that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.
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welcome back to "squawk box. netflix shares down a bit in the premarket following a big initial stock drop the company slightly missed revenue. second quarter guidance a bit light. netflix said it would delay a broad roll enthur p suring a crack down un. >> >> we've got a lot of work to do it continue to develop features we're rolling out vare if iification pu woo have will ng
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microsoft there's a lot of good work we have to do and some of this is hard work because it's very country by country. >> and it announced it will shut down it dvd bails "beatle joyce" happened on march 10, 1998 >> sort of a time bubble ma hoon it >> "the blind side," sandra bullock, remember what happened? >> i didn't show up. >> you remember -- >> i don't remember. i remember the films but not the way you have -- you are frnl and that was michael keaton. but the star of it tch and alec
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baldwin was the store of it. he looked like he was 12 betweenia davis, narm so maybe that's the johnny depp connection >> no, i'm thinking edward siz were >> fox and its cable networks will pay dominion voting systems close to 800tom avoiding one p what would have likely been one of the high profile firms in decades. >> we're also not willing to settle performance and for that
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truth to come out and all those documents to be shared with the world so everyone could get perspective in terms of what was going on >> for vim let's start with what this means for fox. they must have thought there was something in it for them to go ahead and pay the settlement there could be sharehoder love i that i ut rm that this lawsuit was going to bring cosmic jb it fox news and it's always a mus take to be look, if and if you saw the lawyers on their faces
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was t so that murdoch could avoid testifying >> and we heard earlier the bu budges i wonder what it would have meant to have a decision, going to trial and the broader um pli cases for the media. >> it could have been more damaging for fox, a sense among fox brewers, this and this has been a television show and it there's not much bus thatton and if this continue toy play out in bluk, if and even with this settlement, there's going to be a lot of plaintiff lawyers
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youing frmgs its next. it hasn't affected foxies viewership but it has had an impact on advertising. do you think that's a lock-term issue or one that fades krk tucker carlson in particular said that have been pretty affective, if you wachb fox there os sons to direct consumer advertising. a lot of but they have cable affiliate business and it remains trael strong >> try some relaxium ap twrpd but balance of nature,
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you you've fact whatever -- you know, i call the number whef i see it. >> and which is advertised on all these things opinion sfrnks and does this happen before this next suit has to take place or get settled? >> i think you sort of see the play book now. martmattic is saying they'll consider the moral pursuit of justice. we now have a benchmark watch that will look like. the problem is that the motor vehicle hot and in these controlled countries, it's very hard for the buck to start in the family all over the place. >> oh, no, tu urngs and then mur
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dk will have a problem >> it seems like they were kind of revving up the bus for suzanne scott, the president of the network. but at the same time with management really in troll, don't want to say that they want to say the lunatics who clear there and there's also a lot of evidence that management was truly not in control of the talent. so i think that your tactically avoiding -- in a way, avoiding choosing paths and keeping it a it. ben, was there nichg -- i guess we've seen an add megs f is there anything that caught you off guard?
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i would sayin one new hampshire they're asking $1.7 billion and they got half of it. this is a company at that talked about loses $10 million dollars, which is what they got on the other side, no, you think, you know, domin can t so at the risk of a false equivalency and i know i'm going to hear about it, i mean, i've seen brian stilt every stemt i know the other things that you're not going to throw russian conclusion because it not layer like we knew that
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thissing if rng talking about concrete evidence that there was gluton and it. f and they are in this frpg and he's the same guy who said we need to cover trump differently and throw out the objectivism of journalism it just seems like there's blame to go of where in media these days >> i think the main thing everybody should take away from this is the reality that these lawsuits are about damage being to temperature or everyone else can say all sort of misiding bd trng plausibly damage their business or person there was this fen fchbl and
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there's -- >> for sure. >> when something about a political person when it starts at inouye owned and pack and the notion that you're going to look to the courts to fundamentally fix what ails the meetia and society. >> they got a billion dollars from that whacko with the sandy hook thing trj whacoin fshl so got a lot of work to do >> yeah. >> very good >> all right i don't know why they're taking a shot at you. >> i don't know. >> that was a bad finger
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director interactive brokers founder thomas pettercy. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc inancial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. for a brighter financial future. thanks. ahh, pretzel and mustard... another great combo. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.
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♪ great estimations ♪ interesting piece. let me bring in my expert. mmm... so many scratches... oh those are from my car keys. such a rich history. yeah. this won't do well at auction. but at at&t, it's worth a brand-new samsung galaxy s23. wait really? mmhmm. what about this? at&t's deal is back. wow. everyone gets a free new samsung galaxy s23 with a galaxy phone trade-in. any year, any condition. our customers don't do what they do for likes or followers. their path isn't for the casually curious. and that's what makes it matter the most
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when they find it. the exact thing that can change the world. some say it's what they were born to do... it's what they live to do... trinet serves small and medium sized businesses... so they can do more of what matters. benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. ♪♪ alex! mateo, hey how's business? great. you know that loan has really worked wonders. that's what u.s. bank is for. and you're growing in california? -yup, socal, norcal... -monterey? -all day. -a branch in ventura? that's for sure-ah. atms in fresno? fres-yes. encinitas? yes, indeed-us. anaheim? big time. more guacamole? i'm on a roll-ay. how about you? i'm just visiting. u.s. bank. ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with retail banking in california by j.d. power.
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>> welcome back to "squawk box." now for a check on the health of the retail investors, first quarter profits missing analyst estimates and the company said that its number of customer accounts rose by 21% to $22 million. joining us is the interactive brokerage's founder and chairman good morning to you. we're all are youing to pass. >> well, for the first time brokers produced record revenue and record pretax earnings a simple bird's eye view from an investors' point of view that we should be a company with 4 billion of revenues around 3 billion of me you are on the
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basis. so i think this is a very good report card. our growth rate year on year is extremely strong, well over 50%. this rate of growth is mostly and that is about to come to an end. from the point of view of -- what matters is that our it ever so it means available cash and margins. >> here's the bigger question right now and it really about retail inrestors broad p broadly. are you taking market shares from others? these people who are coming back into the market in a are in how
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do you sort of think about this community right in ffrp and many of our new customers are new to the market but maybe 30% of them come from other brokers. >> and where are they coming from >> well,s new customers are new to the marketplace and the people that come from other places come from, you know, the likes the schwashington bureau, ameritrade >> it's too early to know, i don't know if you can speak about what you're sore and a large concern about schwab did you see in kind of shift there? >> no. s thatting in it, it remains the
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same for years now so this new banking crisis has nothing to do with it. >> what about rob be hood for the past three, four years we've had lots of conversations with you about crypto. where does crypto i tnl. >> well, crypto activity on our platform is very, very slow. so it really -- is that because your platform doesn't cater specifically to the crypto community in the same way that maybe some other do or do you think it just reflective of something else >> that's a good question. the fact is that we do not -- our customers crypto.
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caller: and is that just because of what's happening with the price. we're looking sfrrngs i really don't have a view -- >> you don't have a view on the price of crypto or why m if and i own some they nch but believe other people believe it worth something. >> exactly >> is that -- how do you think about that as an investing strategy are there other things you own luke that. >> yeah, sure.
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i mean, stock market is going up, even though i believe it should be much lower, right? so, yes, i would not say that papers should not own stocks because it's going up, even though i think it should be lower. >> but let's just key in on that for a second i did want to talk to you about sort of where you think the markets should be. you're saying you think the markets should be lower. >> much lower, yes >> much lower. dow, s&p, everything >> i think the market should be about 20% lower. i think that earnings by the time the they work their way threw the economy, the high interest rate earnings will be about on the s&p really about 200 and 15 times earnings should be about 3,000 >> wow so a lot lower does that mean you put a lot of
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money in cash personally >> yes, i have. >> if you're right, what to you think it gr. >> well, you know, if many. thomas, we're always appreciate talking to you. thank you so very much for joining us >> thank you >> gym cramer will talk about some of the durch earnings wooerd heard about after the market closes you can scan the code on your screen or visit cnbc.com we're coming right back. ruthann and i like to hike. we eat healthy. we exercise. i noticed i wasn't as sharp as i used to be.
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my wife introduced me to prevagen and so i said "yeah, i'll try it out." i noticed that i felt sharper, i felt like i was able to respond to things quicker. and i thought, yeah, it works for me. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription.
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are. let's go down to the new york stock exchange and check in with james cramer. earnings keep rolling out, a lot to keep all of us busy doing it. let's say travelers. they had better-than-expected results. the stock up 2.6%. you mentioned something earlier. this is the sweet spot and it's these guys' sweet spot
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many this thing goes higher. it's a very, very good company i do walk through morgan stanley. some strong results that they reported, but that stock turned around it was down by more than 3% last i looked >> okay, look, i mean, they beat the consensus. there's a worry that they took -- they had a provision, 234 millions versus $98 million what people thought, but they have a giant book, and i think that's not unusual they did bring in $110 billion in new debt and assets, which i thought was very good, one of the top people who brought in assets i think james gorman is going to tell a good story, but this is a market that wants to nitpick it is a higher multiple than goldman-sachs. it does have a better yield than goldman-sachs, but people are going to sell it down and then
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in a few days, they'll recognize that gorman has a superior franchise and wealth management is the place to be so, let them sell it down. stock was up to 89 the other day. i think it's fine. i wish it were better. my travel trust owns it. nothing's perfect. it's not bad not a bad quarter. that's the best way to put it. >> we heard from scott kirby with united, and he said right after svb, the bank, silicon valley bank, going down, there was a drop, an immediate and clear drop in business travel that was being booked. it's rebounded since, but he said it's a shaky economy. it's hard to know which way things are going, and the description he used was on a knife's edge >> well, i think that's a little harsh because i think that given the fact that there are so few defaults and you look at bank of america, you know, since the best year in 53 years when it comes to defaults, but brian moynihan was talking about how
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april was a weaker for the consumer, weak for the corporate the last two weeks of march, so it's a mixed picture again, i mean, we have these mixed pictures that people want to draw conclusions that are almighty for, and i think that's a mistake. i think things are fine. if the fed raises twice, it will push us over the knife's edge. if it raises once, i think people will be fine. >> you're right, we want answers. we want clarity. >> i spent yesterday chasing down a couple stories. you can chase all day and realize, maybe the franchise is not -- the franchise is not at stake. this is not an existential moment for most companies. morgan stanley, we're going to look back and say, gorman has some really good enterprise, it's the right thing to own. we'll look back at goldman and say, they didn't miss by that much morgan and goldman are not the classic net interest margin banks like you have with wells and jpmorgan those are the big winners. >> calming voice thank you, jim see you in a few minutes
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"squawk box" will be right eaofheped wch you neetoat ahd t oning bell on wall street. ordinary problems are for ordinary companies. we're here to fight the big, intimidating, impossible-to-change problems. [beeping] from developing treatments at unprecedented speed to addressing threats to global health. we're leading the way with a revolutionary mrna platform that could teach our bodies to do extraordinary things. we're here to do something more than make medicine. we're here to change it. moderna. this changes everything.
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♪♪ alex! mateo, hey how's business? great. you know that loan has really worked wonders. that's what u.s. bank is for. and you're growing in california?
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-yup, socal, norcal... -monterey? -all day. -a branch in ventura? that's for sure-ah. atms in fresno? fres-yes. encinitas? yes, indeed-us. anaheim? big time. more guacamole? i'm on a roll-ay. how about you? i'm just visiting. u.s. bank. ranked #1 in customer satisfaction with retail banking in california by j.d. power. well, we're mostly done with
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the big bank earnings for the quarter. having got morgan stanley this morning plus some regionals. joining us for her take, chief global strategist at principal asset management with what you've seen so far, you feel estimates are where they need to be for what's left? are things a little bit better than you thought or are things a little bit softer than you thought? >> yeah, thanks for having me on i think what we have seen in the last month or so is you have seen a lot of downgrades of expectation, so this wasn't a very high -- this isn't a very high bar to clear at this stage. so, although i do expect earnings to deteriorate as you go through the coming months, i'm not sure the q1 earnings is really going to be that negative, but it is the one that breaks investor sentiment at this stage >> we just had thomas betterphy on who's worried about earnings and thinks stocks are way
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overvalued at this point do you share that opinion? >> absolutely. i think that we're seeing these overvaluations we are extremely worried about the outlook, expecting recession to hit q4 as you start to see long-term impacts from central banks starting to feed through at this point, things are fairly rosy, but that isn't to say this will persist for very long you're not going to see a lot of that weakness coming through until about q3 or q4 from an economic side. for the time being, we could see equity state being range-bound and then in the second half of the year, that's when i think things are going to become considerably more challenging. >> do you think we retest the lows, the october lows >> yeah, i think that's entirely possible you know, we've seen a fairly strong rally as i think these, you know, these continued
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expectations for a potential central bank pivot has kept the floor up under equities, but you know, as i said, we're expecting recession. typically, you don't see the trough in equities before recession hits it usually happens about nine months afterwards, so i am expecting further weakness pushing through those previous october lows but i just want to clarify here as well that we're not expecting anything like the gfc. we're not expecting a recession, which is very, very deep, but it's something which is going to take a lot of the steam out of the equity market because they're still very overvalued and that's particularly the u.s. market >> and how many more basis points, 25 -- another 25 after that will the credit contraction that we might see following the silicon valley bank event, will that cause the fed to be -- to take a lighter touch, just one more, do you think >> we're fairly certain that there's going to be one more in
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may. now, after that, we can see a very considerable risk that there's another hike after that. so, taking the range up to 5.25% to 5.5%, but that last hike is very uncertain at this stage as you said, it really depends on how how credit card lending goes, how banks are responding i do wonder if we're actually going to see evidence of that coming through with full force by the time of that june meeting. so, i think it's possible that you could get to 5.5%, certainly for now, 5.25% is the -- is almost guaranteed, i think, for now. >> seema shah, thank you final check. final check on the markets for today. hopefully it's not the final check. that sounds so final we're down 120 points now on the dow. nasdaq, even weaker on a relative basis, down 104 s&p giving back 26 let's look at the ten-year note
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quickly. ten-year is above 360. that's 362, and the two-year has moved up rather sharply, now back almost to 4.25% oil has been able to stay above -- no, now it's down below $80 again. even with recent cuts. here we are. humpday. it's over. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange premarket stumbling a bit as earnings not being greeted well at companies like jpmorgan, synchrony, asml. inflation running hot in europe. road map is going to begin with netflix posting those mixed results, saying its broader password sharing crackdown is on

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