better term, for policymakers about whether there's an inflation battle that needs to be fought. >> do you fight it with rate hikes? >> i don't know. >> how about better weather? >> and egg prices are plummeting too. >> would be great if we could control the weather. >> thank you for watching. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner live here at the new york stock exchange. we begin with the count down to tesla hitting it overtime. the stock up nearly 50% year to date you heard me right there's a lot riding on that report here's your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. stocks once again searching for direction. maybe they'll find it after these mega caps report earnings. it will mean a lot to the nasdaq

which has been moving between positive and negative territory. it's a winner infrasfractional e speak. that brings us to the talk of the tape musk moments dan is here with me always always onset they cut prices again. how many times now, six? >> six. >> what do you make of this? >> it's the moment of truth. they cut prices. demand it's all about margins that's the story if they can maintain the margins, it's a flex the muscle moment for musk. >> how do you believe they will? their margins are better than everybody else by leaps and bounds into space. why do you believe margins will hold up as prices continue to

come down? >> it's the scale we see in china. that's important battery costs ultimately that's the golden goose. if you're able to custom battery costs globally, that gives them more flexibility to cut costs. we believe this is the start of what's going to be a narrative, whether they're able to cut prices and margins stable and demand we're looking at 35 to 40% growth. >> even though they're cutting prices and doing so with regularity, it's not like the delivery numbers have increased. what does that say about the demand that you say is great >> great point we're going through a transition in the ev space. for musk and tesla, it's about putting an iron fence around the install base this will lead to the next phase which is a tidal wave of ev

adoption given what's happened in europe, they need to be cost competitive. >> 1.8 million vehicles is the guide for 2023 how confident are you they'll meet that? >> for the first time now there's more upside potential than downside. it was death by a thousand cuts. now finally feels like the demand is at the point where you'll see that ultimately tick up, not down. >> are you concerned they'll cut prices again you talk about china the market in china right now is more competitive than it's ever been arguably and only getting more so, right >> it's a price war. i think for tesla it's a "game of thrones" battle you're seeing massive market share potential, gains they're looking to lock in it's not the time to sit there

with hubris. this is a moment of truth quarter to musk and tesla. >> at what point do you worry about the margins if they continue on the path of cutting prices eventually something has to give what number to you from a margin standpoint would be worrisome? >> if you got into the teens rather than the low to mid 20s, that's the five-alarm fire right now we could see more price cuts, 2, 3, 4% price cuts and then that's it they've weighed the ground for what's the story this is a very important conference call in terms of musk talking about the price cuts and what the ma rgin looks like. >> you said you wouldn't be surprised to be further price cuts, right? >> in china we could see one to

two more cuts. that's why -- look, at the end of the day musk is playing chess where others are playing checkers this is another move from him. >> so wondering what he's been playing over the last year, whether chess, checkers or something else altogether with the whole twitter thing which you were critical of you feel like his eye is back on the ball >> our view in terms of covering tesla for years, over the last three to four months you've seen a different musk price cuts was a major poker move even though the twitter situation is in the background, and that is a broader cloud that will continue to come and go -- >> is it in the background for real we hear musk talking about everything but tesla almost. it's like -- if it's not twitter, it's ai, it's the

rockets and then, oh, yeah, that other thing i run. >> it's the golden jewel that fuels everything else. for musk it's about that tight rope and navigating it because ultimately tesla, the success in terms of units has been there. all those things come into the forefront if you see stumbles. my opinion it's probably -- if i went back the last few years, it's one of the most important conference calls we've seen. >> you have $225 as the price target the stock is up 50% year to date what does that do for the bar? >> the bar is higher haters continue to hate on this from a margin and the potential that they can't continue to cut prices forever from a demand perspective you're looking at demand that could be closer to 1.9 million units and then in 2024 with cyber truck,

with battery technology, with austin and with the further buildout in china -- china is the hearts and lungs of tesla. musk or cook are backing away from that. >> you think the nasdaq is able to keep up the momentum it's had? if the broader nasdaq goes down, do you think tesla continues to go up? >> my view it's going to be stabilization that we're seeing on enterprise, on semis and tech it's our view tech has another 8 to 10% upside. dan ives is going to stay with us let's bring in nicole webb and cameron. cameron, you think tesla's still in a downtrend >> certainly from a technical standpoint it got oversold into the end of last year.

that oversold nature set you up for a huge rebound it's trading below its 200-day moving average the easy part in this move is likely down. now it's the burden of proof of show the continued earnings. the valuation multiple rebound is already behind us because we got so cheap and oversold at the end of last year. >> dan, that doesn't sound like a hater. sounds like somebody talking in reality. >> cameron as always makes sense. the easy money was really when the stock got toward 100 we've seen the easy money over i believe coming is still the upside >> nicole, the importance of this report -- i know we asked this question when we were looking ahead to netflix because it's one of the so-called fangs. it's one of more marquee names we follow. the market cap of tesla

overwhelms the size of netflix we suggest it's more important to the overall nasdaq. how do you think about that question >> yeah. you know, to cameron's point we believe that the easy part for est la is over we too though have the expectation that by lowering prices to the tune of $7,000 this year, the expectation for combatting some of those rebate cuts, being able to broaden the consumer base and what we're looking for today is that gross margin line and the production target talking about austin coming online, berlin online, expansion in mexico, china, as we look to the future for delivering numbers, this small fraction of ev today versus where it's going to go, we believe tesla is the premier provider on this growth for ev overall >> cameron, you feel like the

nasdaq is vulnerable right here? >> it's trading at a very high valuation, mostly relative to the s&p. some of that may be justified because nasdaq has a lot of tech stocks in it which has earnings durability to the downside you actually get to participate, though, in the upside. should valuation trade at a higher premium that's the question that raises the issue of vulnerability if the fed delivers on more interest rate hikes. >> if that's the question, what's the answer? >> numbers, they ripped the band-aid off the new safety sector. green life for tech, especially the set up -- >> undeterred by the fact that mega caps are up by pinminimum f

20%. >> fang could still be up 15 to 20%. i think we'll look at earnings and think stabilization happened and still underinvested. >> nicole, do you look at the nasdaq as being vulnerable or not? >> very much so in that it seems that investors are looking through earnings contractions in 2023, looking for a strong recovery on 2024 and are paying high multiples on value earning numbers. we're starting to look at some of these more cyclical names where we think there's more opportunity as we head through the rest of 2023. >> cameron, what about the overall market it's been resilient. it's hard to argue with that. >> yeah.

>> it seems to be waiting for something to decide whether it's going to break out of this range. what gets us out of the range? >> it's earnings earnings actually materializing lower. if you look at the full year of estimates for 2023, three a rebound baked into the second half of the year which is when people think a recession is going to hit if we have a recession, earnings will move us lower. to move higher, it has to be from earnings not falling off the cliff. at the same time you have to see inflation move lower for the fed to back off because we're trading at 19 times earnings that's where we peaked out back earlier this year in february, back during the rally we had in june and july. that's wear we've seen the most pressure from an earnings standpoint and if we hit that 19

times, we think that's where we get in dangerous territory. >> nicole, the market -- i'm looking at s&p, it's 4,157 how much more upside do we have? >> we expected an earnings pop on the adjustments to the growth perspective on the back of q1. this falls into balancing the strength of the labor market it continues to be strong. the market looked through the fed's meeting minutes where they pointed to the prospect of a recession in the back half of the year at the same time with the labor market strong consumption is likely to remain strong as well. that's two fold. it keeps that stickiness on inflation. it also wards off the immediate nature of a recession and it probably holds the fed higher for longer what that moves towards is earnings revisions to the downside, but with the stickiness of the consumer if the labor market proves

resilient. we think there's still opportunity there for the market to perform through the year. >> i mean, facebook came out just a short time ago, cameron, said an economy is still doing well consumers are holding up there's been tightening of credit conditions and things and lending is tightening a bit, but nothing suggests we're about to fall off a cliff. >> which means that nothing in there suggests the fed is going to start cutting interest rates in the back half of the year if you don't see credit conditions tighten, if you don't see a sharp tightening -- loosening in the labor market, why would the fed be cutting interest rates they're concerned if they ease liquidity, inflation could come back it's not consistent with the current economic data. >> what if the fed does one more and leaves it there like bostic

suggested yesterday? does that make you feel better, if that's the right word, about where you think the trajectory of fed policy goes >> it's still more hawkish there's about 80 basis point then there's a question if they pause, will financial conditions ease financial conditions have retraced 90% of the tightening it says we're in easy territory. if we see a higher inflation print, the fed will push back hard. >> you believe the fed over the bond market? >> it's the right thing to do. >> nicole, quickly, before we go and i have to go because i have breaking news coming up, this idea of the fed, how are you thinking about it based on what you heard from fed speak lately? the idea that may is one more and then we're done.

>> yeah. there's a lot of balance and bad information and good information. looking at these pockets of positive, meaning we're starting to see the real estate market move again you're starting to see empire state manufacturing information that's positive. the fed certainly, we're expecting to enter a low growth environment. that doesn't mean a no growth environment. we think it's a tale of two narratives, what the market is looking to and what the fed is looking to we hope inflation comes down faster and we can play into a slow growth environment where we see some adjustments like we're seeing from johnson & johnson just this week. >> good stuff, everybody thank you. appreciate it. our twitter question, will tesla rally or sell off after

earnings we got the results coming up later. we have breaking news regarding the supreme court. bertha kuhns has that. >> reporter: this is the ruling on mifepristone. justice scalia is ordering that stay extended until friday this case is one where a texas judge ruled that mifepristone, the abortion drug, should be limited. you had another judge in washington saying it should not be limited the parties all went to the supreme court to ask for some clarification on this. the fifth circuit in new orleans is scheduled to have a hearing on this texas judge ruling on may 17th we got a lot of dates ahead.

at the moment everything is on hold until friday at midnight. >> bertha, appreciate it we're just getting starting on s"closing bell. eric jackson is back and we'll find out what he's watching. we have a check on the regional banks we'll talk about the banks making big moves we're live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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levellers today. they beat top and bottom line estimates. travellers boosted their buyback program. united also getting a boost after earnings despite posting a loss for the first quarter today it's all about the guidance ceo scott kirby said they expect a strong quarter based on bookings they told "squawk box," business

travel was down, but the bookings have rebounded. >> bullish forecast. pippa, thank you. tesla shares are trading lower. what should investors be looking for in today's report? you heard from an analyst and a strategist now you'll hear from a shareholder. eric jackson is with us. how you feeling? i know the stock is up this year, but now what >> most people are saying price cuts are coming from a position of weakness. i see it as a position of strength china is a special case market, very competitive the rest of the world, tesla is way ahead of everyone else in terms of evs even though more evs are coming, i sense no palpable interest in the regular joe who is holding off purchasing an ev because

they can't wait to get their hands on an ev from gm or ford tesla is a well-known brand. musk sees cutting prices as a way to keep ahead of the game, to keep the boot on the throats of these competitors to the point where they won't be able to compete and they'll lose a lot of money in the process. >> six times and counting? even ives who you say you agree with says they may not be done and they likely aren't. >> if you look at the big major price cut they did in january, january 13th, there was a huge spike in app downloads for tesla and google searches for tesla on that day any time they've done a search, the downloads have increased all this quarter, q1, the average app downloads and searches are about double of what they were for all of 2022

it's about triple of what it was in 2020. to me that says the more time goes on, the more deliveries there are, the more interest there is in tesla. there's still pent up demand if people are spiking to check out what they can buy the latest tesla for with these price cuts. that's a positive. >> why aren't deliveries going up as prices continue to come down >> well, q1 deliveries were a record. >> i'm talking about forecasts for the entire year. it's not like we're cutting prices we want to be more competitive demand hasn't waned, yet, we're not taking our overall estimates up for how many cars we'll deliver this year. is there a disconnect? >> the disconnect is we were supposed to do 1.8 this year i don't think a lot of analysts

buy we'll see that big of an increase the surprise could be coming in at that number or beating that number that's going to be a pleasant surprise i think deliveries is the key, scott. you know, the gross margin is a bid of a side show just like for netflix it's about paid subs. there's lots of metrics you can point to if they get to delivery numbers, whether 20%, 22% or 17%, it's cars in driveways. it's lifetime customers signed up it's upselling folks to things like fsd, self-driving and where they'll make it back up. >> what about broader tech it's all plays into a similar story of sectors run so much to start the year how are you thinking about it now? >> i can't think of a time in the past when the nasdaq has

been up i15% and so many people are down right bears it's been a crazy year even now we've had this run and people say it's an excuse to get out of it. this is going to be the third tech season in a row starting yesterday with netflix where people are thinking that tech earnings are going to be awful they weren't for the last two. we'll see about this year. i think tech is going to continue to show resilience. the u.s. dollar has weakened that's a major tail wind for microsoft, apple, meta amazon is coming off two bad quarters in a row. i doubt they'll do it three times in a row i think it's more likely they'll be successful there. you had a stat on about how all big tech accounted for 50% of nasdaq 100 that's a huge shot in the arm to the nasdaq. >> all right appreciate you watching.

eric, thanks that's eric jackson sk. up next a major macaw bounce back and las vegas sands, don't sleep on that one. we'll give you a rundown on the metrics you need to watch. we'll do it next on "closing bell." ordinary problems are for ordinary companies. we're here to fight the big, intimidating, impossible-to-change problems. [beeping] from developing treatments at unprecedented speed

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by now it's a big afternoon for earnings first, christina is standing by with a look at lamb research and what to expect from las vegas sands. contessa brewer starts us off. >> that was a swat we thought we were going to christina. >> i messed that up. thanks for noticing. >> you know what, i call it like a see it first quarterly look at macaw's

recovery the gaming revenue was 65% of precovid levels. in march up 250% when sands reports the focus will be on profit margins, operating expenses and market share. mass market tourists replaced a huge chunk of the vip business does lvs get a competitive edge with that shift? we'll get some insight into the challenges in the recovery, especially labor shortages and personally sands' bid for a new york location. >> these stocks have done quite well we'll see what happens contessa, we'll be following that with you. christina, now lamb research over to you. >> wall street expects lamb to

hit quarterly expectations we're going to be looking at weakness in spending, less spending from chip manufacturing. lam makes equipment and samsung and intel made comments about cuts cmt is rumored to cut lam. second, prices have dropped dramatically this year as emphasized by micron's worst quarter in history investors want to know if the memory cycle is turning around lam provides the kwequipment to memory makers. lam search is slightly up. those are the two things i'll be looking for. >> there's a debate right now -- i read notes this week about the

question over whether the worst is over for chips. >> again, we can't put everything into one bucket we talked about this many times. with memory it seems like it might be the worst is over given specifically with samsung and micron that could bode well for lam we may have to go through the pain first. >> we'll see christina and contessa, thank you. up next, we're heading to the close. pippa stevens is back. >> banks are the story of the day. who's winning? we'll check on that after the bell coming up next.

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we have 20 minutes until the closing bell let's get back to pippa. >> it's all about the banks here western alliance and other regional names up today despite earnings misses. western alliance's net income declining by more than 50%, but investors are heartened to see sign that is deposits are rebounding the bank added 2 billion in deposits with the ceo saying waters are calmer. that comes after deposits declined 11% in the first

quarter. this morning web bush upgrading them to an out performed rating based on that rebounding of deposits zion's bancorp. is rebounding. investors are focusing on deposit trends scott, back to you. >> last chance to weigh in on our twitter question of the day. will tesla rally or sell off after it earnings? we'll bring you the results after the break.

this results of the twitter question will tesla rally or sell off after earnings the majority of you said sell off. pretty close 55.3/44.7. we have your earnings rundown. the key metrics every investor needs to watch just ahead. that and much more the market zone is next. ng, impossible-to-change problems. [beeping] from developing treatments at unprecedented speed to addressing threats to global health. we're leading the way with a revolutionary mrna platform that could teach our bodies to do extraordinary things. we're here to do something more than make medicine. we're here to change it. moderna. this changes everything. this is ge aerospace,

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we're in the closing bell market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. phil on tesla and christina after the bell today mr. santoli, we're selling a little bit. >> it's been volume light. volatility sleepy. regional banks up 4% is probably the story and maybe an answer to the -- if big growth stocks sit still for a while or pull back, what happens seems like the market is saying we're moving on from expectations of further banking stress we probably had to build back hawkishness into the story line. not nearly where we were in early march. we're dealing with a market that's bumping up against the ceiling in absolute price and

valuation. what i'm seeing is a lot of people not only saying the volatility is too low, but buying calls on the mixed index because they want to bet this is going to be a low. people are not extrapolating the strength that seems to be more normal and healthy than it is worrisome >> could get a 15 handle on it you mentioned building back the hawkish speak. you're alluding to the fact that yields were up >> it seemed like it was still think we're in a decent zone where you don't get too uncomfortable about yield levels they perked up

in early march it was 6% now it's maybe one more. if we're getting more than one more rate hike in a couple weeks, it will be mid june two months from today you might get half a point it sounds incremental. we'll have debt ceiling worry at that point a lot of things are coming into the mix. i don't think any of it is really causing a lot of stress at the moment. >> tesla so emablematic on what has worked, right? >> to a point. it's been capped not far above $200 a share if you look back a couple years, it looks like a bit of a shell fund. >> at the beginning of the year we were saying wow, tesla is 100 bucks. >> exactly it's up 20% since the last time it reported earnings in late january. in theory the bar ought to be higher here.

>> how about that, phil, the bar being higher >> it is higher. let's be honest. you had a guest who said it's not just about the margins it's about deliveries. i'm sorry. it is about the margins. that's what the street is looking for. the automotive growth margins, that's what people are focussed on the expectation is 20% look, if it comes in at 20.9, i wouldn't call it a huge beat if it's in the teens, then you have a different story the pricing outlook and what is happening in china, that's what we'll be watching for when they report and obviously what elon musk has to say later during the conference call. he always drives the stock after hours. >> price cuts, they might not be done according to mr. ives who

was on at the top of our program. they've cut six. it's six and counting. >> yep, six and counting in china don't be surprised if there are more i don't think we can fully appreciate how competitive the market has become in china it's the world's largest ev market the number of ev players there far greater than in the u.s. and europe byd is out with an $11,000 entry level ev is it the same as a model 3? no is it attracting attention for buyers you bet. that's the pressure that people are going to be focussed on, not just with this conference call, but this year. what is happening with that ev market in china? >> the other thing is whether musk will be on the call do you expect that >> yes. >> it goes back to that issue that's been the overhang which is eye on the ball it's talking about everything

these days but what's happening at tesla >> having said that, scott, i do expect him on the call if you listen to these calls going back to when he first started saying he was interested in buying twitter, these calls have been about tesla. he's gone away from some of the off the reservation comments we would hear a year and a half ago. he's much more anbout the business frankly the calls are rather boring i expect him all abon the call. i think it will be interesting to hear what he says today about tesla. >> i wasn't necessarily referencing what he says on the tesla calls. it's about what he says everywhere else. phil, thank you. we'll see you after the bell you have a comment on that >> no. i think boring is good if you own tesla. >> he has the boring company too. >> that's true what you can't get around is in

the last six months earning estimates for tesla are down two bucks and next year down two bucks. maybe that's a hurdle that easy to clear, but it doesn't help the valuation. what i think for the stock tip to get moving is to have people decide that the excitement is back, that there's a new story that we can start betting feverishly again >> you hear from christina who says the excitement is back for ibm. now the stock is a bit muted this year, but there's a lot riding on this report. >> i'm expecting it to be a little more exciting a lot of people are not sure what to expect the bread and butter is their

software segment it's high margins. contribute 40% to total revenue. we're starting to see things slow down because competition is ramping up there's questions about i.t. budgets from all over. you also have the exposure to financials ibm works with the 50 largest banks in the united states that's something to keep in mind there's another point too, scott, there's costs costs that are coming in this quarter, costs associated with the spinoff and the divesting of watson health care these are possibly $300 million costs. the other is the cost associated with laying off employees. ibm was said to lay off roughly 4,000 employees. there's going to be labor

expenses i have poeinted out the negatives. the positives is the company is the bread and butter of consulting businesses. we might see a little weakness in this quarter. >> the bulls are red hat, red hat, red hat it's all about that going in it always seems to be. >> of course with the exposure within the cloud and that entire segment. that's what we care about. >> we'll see ibm's numbers from you. thank you, christina legacy name? >> yeah. >> huge winner last year. >> it was a big winner last year it's still in a long-term sense in the penalty box you don't get a 5% plus dividend yield if people believe you have financial momentum the execution has been better by most accounts, even if you can

quibble with the earnings quality every single quarter if you want to turn a negative into a positive, ibm has been retrenching for decades in some fashion or another the idea that you have to be more careful about costs, you can't assume huge top-line growth, that's not new for this company. what's interesting is other left aside legacy names like ge has anybody watched ge recently? >> it's been an amazing looking chart. >> it's kind of capital goods in industry, whatever the reason, it's working right now it's a cleaner story and it got under loved. >> if only intel could feel a little bit of that love. >> oracle's been a decent stock

that's not quite as old. >> that's another one. >> things like broadcom which is the nuts and bolts legacy tech businesses some of that stuff is working. i was looking at the overall index. got valuationchallenges. it's at the top mega cap level a third of the s&p trades it under 15 times this year people who think it's a stock-picking moment have a lot to do, even if there isn't anything you can be comfortable with it's like oh, i have to buy insurance companies or these consumer cyclicals where it's unclear whether you can believe the sorry. >> we were asking similar questions about whether we could own the banks right now. they have answered the call in some respects. we've gotten through the major ones

as you said, as we head towards the close, with regional banks have had a hell of a good day? >> they've had a good day. they're not far off their lows maybe that means more catch up potential. it's a story of the select giants in banking which seem bullet proof right now and what do you want to pay for them? there's a jpmorgan chart i love. it's absolutely vertical to the sky. everyone has felt there were only a handful of banks you could comfortably own. usually you want to see banks, if not lead, then participate in the upside there's something to prove there in general that the banks can get a little bit of a lift morgan stanley on target numbers today. stock has responded in a comfortable way.

no real free reasons to bid it up. >> unless you think the capital markets are improving? why do i say that? it relates to maorgan stanley an golden saks. seat geek filing confidentially for an ipo this month. >> absolutely there's a backlog of companies that in 2021 would have been public already for six months there are real businesses out there. i would have expected, yes, venture-backed, private equity owned companies to break that log jam at some point and once one gets through others will try. yeah, that's a bright spot if we can trade up here at the top a niche e-commerce company like seat geek might be the thing to do there's a longer trend story and people know similar businesses

>> the svb collapse certainly didn't help. there's the bell and tesla, ibm, las vegas sands, even more, morgan has the story in "overtime" right now happy day for the s&p finishing around 4,154 the action is just getting starting welcome to "closing bell overtime." we have a huge hour of earnings. we'll get numbers from tesla as the company cuts prices again on some models. plus, we're awaiting results from ibm an