>> mining equipment. so, dig deep that's -- >> dig deep, yes in the meantime, we did see the major averages finish the day lower, we've got more earnings as we mentioned tomorrow morning. that's going to do it for "overtime. >> "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," the bear knuckles battle between disney and ron desantis. the latest developments, straight ahead. plus, the biden administration dialing up the pressure on beijing. the rtreasury secretary pushing national security over economic relations, while the president signaling new investment curbs could be coming soon a live report from washington straight ahead. and later, tesla's tough day. the stock plunging 10% on the back of the ev maker's megamargin miss and the company's pivot to growth at all costs. then, elon musk's spacex starship rocket triumphantly making it off the launchpad this morning, but that joy turning to pain, that rocket exploding. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast

money," live from the nasdaq market site. tim seymour, courtney garcia, dan nathan, and with us for the hour tonight, rebecca patterson, former bridgewater chief investment strategist and "fast money" friend. welcome, rebecca >> thank you >> well, the dow drops more than 100 points, the nasdaq falls nearly 1%. the s&p too close off over half a percent. much more on today's action in just a moment, but we begin with a developing story tonight on disney shares dropping once again today and down almost 3% over the past week as the battle between florida governor ron desantis and disney takes a new turn. disney executives reportedly calling on lobbyists to keep an eye on any legislation in florida that could hurt the company. c nbc.com's brian schwartz with the new reporting. brian what's the latest here >> well, this fight between disney and ron desantis is just heating up, guys what we're seeing here is right after that press conference this past week, where desantis effectively ripped disney and said he was moving ahead with his latest salvo with the company, disney executives are

calling on their legion of lobbyists to start engaging immediately with florida state legislature representatives, in the state house and the state senate, and really start pushing them to kind of take a step back here and think about what they're going to be doing next and a lobbying campaign is starting to build up here related to disney and the land surrounding the disney world in florida. so there's a wide variety of bills they're looking at at the state level. but there's some real question marks exactly how much further this battle is going to go, as disney's lobbyists are stepping up their game. >> according to people you're talking to, what are the odds that disney loses that special status in that district that surrounding disney world i mean, i would think that desantis and the state of florida have a lot to lose if disney, you know, says, you know what we're going to move, we're out of here, and other businesses might follow suit. >> i don't think there's any sense that disney has any plans to move out of florida when you look at their special status, there is some debate as

to whether, where that exactly is going for disney. you know, there's that new board that desantis is trying to push out, have more authority over disney right now in the state of florida. and it would get that new board really all desantis-appointees, allies who are on that board looking at how to push back against disney in the next few weeks. and remember, keep in mind, the florida, the state legislator's session ends in may, so, there's only so much time left here for desantis and his allies in the state of florida to really go after disney with any sort of laws or impactful legislation. >> the threat to build a prison adjacent to disney world, is that just political theater? >> i think it was. but i think it speaks to how ron desantis looks at the company and the feud between both desantis and disney. i do not think there's going to be a state prison built next to disney world, but let's be very clear here, it does speak to the power desantis has and the position he's in to take on

disney as the governor, and as this legislative session comes to an end. republicans have a super majority in the florida state legislature. and that is important, because all of those people, for the most part, have followed in lock step with what ron desantis has wanted over the years. if you are disney, you are really going to have to turn the dials here on lobbying to get some on your side. >> brian, thank you so much. brian schwartz and you can read the entire story on c nbc.com let's trade this, tim see your, you are a disney shareholder >> i've heard a lot of noise around disney for the last couple years, and i think, you know, they were also on some level really in the focus during the pandemic because of what was going on with parks and what not. and i think this is going to blow over. no one wants to hear my politics on this anyway, so, i'm going to point out i think this is a political issue, and i think there are plenty of people on both sides of the aisle that have a strong view, but it does sound like the view is largely in favor of disney on this one again, my politics don't matter. what i care more about is the

story around disney was going to move this stock is really less in the way of streaming losses and asset mix, maybe something stra strategic, are they going to spin off espn, blah, blah, blah. bob iger is the man to handle it, and if you want to get back to the politics here, bob chapek might have even started the politics, or at least was responding to the politics that were brought upon disney, depending on how you look at this so, i'm going to choose not to be investing in disney based upon the noise i think it has the best assets, certainly in the business, i think the diversified business model. the multiple is not that attractive >> it's interesting, back in february, when they reported their fiscal q-1, you remember the stock had just had this massive run, and then they put up this beat on the eps, they talked about cost, one of iger's first times to speak to the street again he's been doing that for decades, and the stock gapped up and closed, you know, on the low of the day, and went down, like, 20% from those opening highs

so, to tim's point about valuation, i mean, there's a lot of stuff that, bob iger is going to have a honeymoon period he's going to be able to do a lot of things. and for this tit for tat for desantis, i would bet on bob iger on this one disney's been there for 100 years, and it really seems like a lot of culture war bs. also, disney, largest employer in florida, to your point. you know, it's not something that, i think, is a winning issue, if voters have to decide. but to the point i would just say, some of the stuff we're seeing about the consumer, i don't think this is probably going to be a great quarter and a great guide when they report in a couple weeks, and to me, the stock remains in a bit of a down trend if shareholders like tim think it's expensive, when they put up a great quarter last quarter, to me, it seems like there's room down towards 90. >> disney employees brought the political fight, that demanded that disney get into the fight,

because bob's initial response was to not wade into this potential moras, and because of the outrage, he said, you know what, we're going to put a statement against -- out against this bill. and so, this really speaks to, not to be political, because this could be any political issue out there, you know, if your constituents, your stair holders or employees, demand you take a political stand on something, that can just invite risk to the company and to have you -- how do you weigh that >> yeah, that's the era we're in on we saw it with the u.s./china tensions, more interventionist policies, economic policies that were driven not just by a political goal, but a economic goal, social goal, and now we're saying that play out through the pandemic and now through esg issues, not just at the national level, but here we are at the state level. and in the case of florida, they were given a gift in that people migrated there in droves during the pandemic they have low tax rates, they have all these things going for it that benefit disney, as well.

but if desantis wants to keep attracting companies to florida, which is one of the top five states in the country for gdp contribution, he's got to be careful how he steps through this last thing they want is a chilling effect. and one last thing on disney specifically, you think about some of the benefits they get from the reedy creek area, their ticket sales, precovid, just the ticket sales revenue for taxes, was equal to the entire state's budget for elder care. and that is a big chunk of their budget there's a few elderly folks down in florida >> just a few that might care about that, for sure >> yeah, and i think this is going to blow over, which i think you used that term here. ultimately, i think this is what dean sis wants, it's in the news right now. we're talking about him, he's all over the news, he's in this bid for presidency he wants the publicity and, you know, what's bad publicity, at the end of the day and i think that's what they're getting. but when you look at something like a disney stock, i think this news is going to blow over. i think it's selling off

specifically on this i would not worry about this i think over the longer term, there's a lot of opportunity here especially, iger has just stepped into this role he's just starting to have some of the layoffs to cut costs. i think there's going to be more down the line with him >> i look at the chart, too, we always -- after bringing that component here, i mean, disney's traded down from 180 to 195, traded in this range, no one cares about charts in terms of telling that story in terms of the valuation, where this company has come from and where it is, and the bad news that we priced into the media word if you are selling disney, you're selling it at the bottom, and selling it at the bottom also with the charts tell you really is almost a ten-year range on the stock, i mean, after a rerated with the dtc business and the streaming business, it obviously -- a lot of excitement and all streamers pulled back. but there's not a lot of great news priced into disney here and for a company that has, again, this diversified asset mix, that does have optionality in what they can do with some of those assets, i think they are

going to start paying a dividend next year, they're going to get back to normalcy no company really was hurt as much as disney on some level in terms of the core business. now to the latest moves by the biden administration against china. the treasury secretary striking a hawkish tone in a speech earlier today, and there are fresh reports the president is threatening to impose new curbs on investment in china ahead of the g7 meeting the details now from kayla, live at the white house >> melissa, the speech billed china as the aggressor in the global economy, calling out during which she described as a particularly tense moment between washington and beijing but yellen, who said she plans to travel to china at an appropriate time, also took the role of pragmatist and said beijing has an opportunity to make different choices >> our path is not preordained, and it is not destined to be costly the trajectory of this relationship is thing a regrate

of choices that all of us in these two great powers make over time, including when to cooperate, when to compete >> the remarks come as the biden administration prepares to rachet up restrictions on u.s. investment in chinese semiconductors, ai, and quantum computing. it will be structured as a one-year pilot with additional sectors possibly added after that the administration is preparing to unveil the program ahead of the g7 summit and there could be more penalties to come three sources tell us the office of the u.s. trade representative is considering raising tariffs on certain tstrategic chinese exports. this as the house ways and means leadership challenges ustr to enforce the deal more strictly a review of those tariffs could come to a head later this year a senior trade official says no final decision has been made, melissa, but there is no shortage of pressure from both sides of pennsylvania avenue to do more.

>> kayla, thank you. kayla. there was a definite sort of emphasis by the treasury secretary on national security over economic interests, right so, she's basically saying, we're going to do what is right for this country, whatever the consequences are, for the economy. ch which is sort of frightening >> it's stagflationary >> twice a year. >> people care about those meetings >> i care a lot about those meetings, because what i heard from hundreds of institutional investors attending those meetings is that they're starting to wonder how safe they feel going to china. i had never heard that before in my career. i was shocked by that. and i also heard that people are now pricing in a greater risk premium when they're looking at chinese investments, not just because of what china might do, but to what you just reported, what the united states could do. you can't put your money in, you

might not be able to get it out, at what cost, and that's something you have to think about that five years ago, ten years ago, we didn't >> right they're looking at businesses, they're looking at private equity, they're looking at vc, jvs. how did u.s. companies get into china to begin with? all with jvs are we looking at that as technology transfer, tim >> well, it has been and it has been, and this is the way, as a guy that's been emerging markets my whole career, this is what happens you're welcome, until we don't need you anymore and this is what we've seen with a lot of companies we've certainly seen this in china, absolutely in eastern europe and i think that discount on chinese equities, though, this is nothing new if we look at what's been going on in the chinese tech sector, we know that discount. that's a discount the chinese government puts on their own companies. so, i look at, who does this -- some of the companies that i think it was more, when you're talking about hardware and component producers and folks that are going to benefit from

staying at home. an intel, who hasn't been able to get out of their way for a long time, and i look at positioning. i've been long the stock through good times and bad times, and these are bad times in terms of the share price, but this stock is so underowned, and the amount of money that's being thrown, i think, in intel's direction is something that's very interesting. >> we know about the discount on chinese equities, i don't know if there's a real discount on u.s. equities operating in china. >> not yet for real brands like apple >> right apple, starbucks, i mean, the list goes on and on. >> yeah, i do think you're going to see investors worrying more and more about that, and it is still -- i would sail far out in the future there's nothing definitive that's happening, but that is where companies like apple are going to be under pressure, because they have a lot of sales that are coming from china china has been this tail wind, as china reopens, but now it's going to be a head wind for people and it's going to be a shift for investors. >> and that risk won't go away before the election in 2024. >> likely. >> it will probably get worse before it gets better.

>> yeah, so, think about this. interest rate environment that we're in right now, a lot of our u.s. multinationals were b borrowing a lot of money, buying back their stock, massaging their eps for years. think about apple, tesla, how much cash they have over in china, and the difficulty it is, just any way, for tax purposes and stuff to get that back, so, when you think about that, to me, i think there are potential head winds for some of the large multinationals the other thing that is interesting, nvidia just continues to go higher, right? there doesn't seem to be a headline out there that is negative for this stock that trades at 24 times sales, okay think about that it's nearly a $700 billion market cap company, and i just think about this one, i say, as the day went on today and i said, more and more headlines about this, did you see that this stock had -- >> started to crack. >> it sold off 2% towards the end of the day and so, to me, i think about, like, if they really do have such an edge on all of their competitors for these advanced chips, this is going to be a

centerpiece of this kind of negotiation, and to your point, rebecca, this is not anything that's going to be settled any time soon, so, to me, it's not being priced into invind ya ri nvidia right now i'm short this stock and will remain it. i just don't see a lot of upside i think all the gaelt news, you know, elon last night said they're buying hand over fist, their gpos, we know what's going on with open ai and that sort of thing. to me, i think a lot is priced in. all right, coming up, watching shares of csx the company just reporting results. details from the quarter straight ahead. but first, a rough day for elon musk. tesla shares tanking the stock down 22% this month. we'll debate where it goes and spacex launching the world's most powerful rocket this morning, but minutes after liftoff, the starship exploded the impact on elon's space dreams straight ahead. "fast money" will be right back. to treat my sleep apnea,

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huh? what a time to be alive. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. the future starts now. welcome back to "fast money. tesla shares plunging 10% today. its biggest one-day loss since the second trading day of the year the stock now at its lowest level since late january, but the big dip not deterring one of tesla's biggest bulls.

cathie wood had this to say about the stock and where it's going. >> we do have a five-year investment time horizon. our expected value is roughly $2,000, and that's within a range of $1,400 to $2,500. >> promise of tesla yet to come robo-taxi fleet as a major driver for that valuation. i was looking down at my phone, i was looking at an article from april 2022, where she came out a price target of $4,600 in 2026 so, it seems like she's dialing back her expectations for this that was also predicated on this notion that robo-taxi, so, there's an optionality involved in self-driving and what that car can become i know you're a bear, so, i know you are going to poo-poo all over this. >> yeah, i added it to my short on the opening today i added a little towards the close. my time horizon is much shorter.

i think it's going probably break $100, where it was in january, and my price target is 69 to the down theside it was just elon day here today, but i think there's something else going on here with tesla. we know he had been selling tesla shares all year last year to fund his purchase of twitter. we know that spacex has been for sale, he's been looking to raise capital that one you know, if this stock were to continue to go lower, if they are pushing out a manned trip to the moon, and that's what the whole idea of this rocket launch was today, twitter, they just marked down from $44 billion to $20 billion, got $13 billion -- this is not a generally very liquid person. he used to be able to get whatever lines that he wanted to, but now he's got all these banks on the hook for this debt that he can't service, based on twitter's businesses, so, to me, he might be entering the end game here a little bit for being the ceo of all of these companies and being that levered. and now, when you look at the stock right here, it is broken

the fundmentals have shifted not a single analyst on the street downgraded this stock there's a price target downgrade. they will be downgrading this stock lower. i'm just telling you that, people, over the next three to six months and that's when you have a situation, who knows if he's going to be in control of this company, because it doesn't seem like the elon aura is playing out right now, the three biggest companies that he's involved in. >> they did sort of pivot, we examine pricing on a weekly basis, growth at all costs that's a company that may not be necessarily in growth mode right now. but putting that aside you think the stock goes to 69, because he is too extended, that there's a liquidity issue? >> i think there's a demand issue. and a competition issue in china. if you are looking at the prices of an average price point of $45,000 for your car and you've just seen margins go from 25% last year down to 19% and likely going lower, they have a big fundamental problem that i

didn't hear a single analyst talk about there's this guy gary black, he was on "last call" last night, he's the biggest bull ever on twitter, he is always talking about tesla, he seemed to have turned on this story he's lowering his estimates. so, earnings estimates are coming down, delivery estimates are coming down. backlog's coming down. inventory is going up. does that sound like a good fundamental situation for you? >> what do you think >> i think he has a strong view on this. >> yeah. >> i would back up, because tesla's special, i don't want to comment on tesla per se, but just thinking about what's going to drive the auto demand, you know, the consumer right now is still fine, i'd say even globally, but we're definitely seeing moderation. q-4 last year, we saw the biggest increase in nominal household debt that we had seen in 20 years. so, the credit card spending has picked up a lot. the excess savings has been reduced, and now we're starting to hear from the banks, and from companies like amex, that they're starting to get a little more nervous on that consumer spend. so, the consumer starts

racheting back, jobless claims ticking higher again guess what they're not buying? teslas >> well, they're not buying -- >> no matter how far you cut the costs. >> they're not buying any cars you look at how ford and gm have traded, too. and i agree, today's data, anywhere, whether it was that philly fed, the jobless claims that are still, you know, the market is still tight, but they are weakening. >> yes >> and i think you have a dynamic here where -- to me, just gets back to the multiple of tesla it's never made sense to me, makes even less sense now and i believe it's a car company i don't believe it's anything else and i look at the chart that tells me, this is the last megacap tech stock that never broke its downtrend going all the way back to '21, to november or december of '21 that still hasn't happened, where as all the other ones started to outperform and started to break to the upside, and i'm not saying they do forever, either. i think there's a reason why the qqqs and the megacaps kind of broke out around svb, but those are the things that make the

most sense to me right now about tesla and has never been clearer, is that the multiple now, especially if it is a car company, if they are playing the competitive game to, you know, to outproduce everybody else and take on the competition, i still think competition is pretty tough out there, too >> yeah, i was surprised it closed the day down less than 10%. i thought because -- it seems like a narrative shift that management was presenting on the call >> it is yeah, they really focused on the fact they are trying to increase demand, kind of at all costs they are willing to cut the prices on their cars they've done it so many times, their fifth price cut. but now, it comes to the point where consumers are saying -- >> i'll just wait. >> exactly and so, i think there is going to be some of that dynamic but it is clearly a problem with their and in going forward i'm with tim here. i think on the valuation, it's where the concern is it trades out 42 times next year's earnings. a ford and a gm are at seven and five times next year's earnings.

and i think it's just -- eventually it's got to become closer to that >> tesla options far and away the most active in the market today. mike khouw's got the action, it usually is, mike, but what did you see today? >> yeah, it usually is, number one. it actually wasn't two days ago when we highlighted some bearish flow ahead of earnings it was very busy yesterday, but today was far and away the busiest. traded 4 1/2 times as many contracts as the second place, which is nvidia. it was more than 4 million contracts, in fact, in contract terms, it was the second-busiest option out there after spy unspur unsurprisingly, the flow, the sentiment, was generally bearish. much of the activity we saw today actually expires tomorrow, but when we look further out to the end of next week, the flow we were seeing is a lot of activity in the 160 puts, almost 55,000 contracts there, trading for a little over three bucks a contract those buyers betting that there is potentially further weakness. and i would add sort of speaking

to courtney and tim's point here, too, as well, that all the other automakers saw significant bearish flows. >> thank you for that, mike. mike khouw for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show, tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, shares of csx on the move bring you the details from the quarter next. and a correction is coming in a big way to the vc world in silicon valley that is according to our next guest. how bad is the environment going to get for startups? stick around to find out you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this. girls... the chess club has gained an edge on our bake sales. we need more ways of connecting with customers, fast. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech. that could really help us manage inventory. and save us a ton of dough. then let's take back our market share. checkmate, chess heads.

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets

today. stocks closing lower as more earnings filtered in the nasdaq leading the losses, down eight-tenths of a percent oil closing lower, as economic slowdown fears heat up crude down more than 2%. and communications stocks also in the red at&t dropping more than 10% after a revenue miss verizon falling in sympathy. on the plus side, positive action in housing. dr horton reporting a beat, hitting a new 52-week high the move pushing other home builder stocks higher. the etf hitting a new 52-week high. moving on here, earnings alert on csx topping q-1 estimates on the top and bottom lines gains in its merchandise segment driving higher frank has more on the conference call >> the beat for csx was the story of this quarter. higher margin freight, chemicals, food products and

automotive coal also a strong beat, despite a warmer winter. jb hunt talked about a freight recession earlier this week, but csx's ceo told a much different story on this call >> strong demand for grains, metals, minerals and automotive combined with significant new customer wins give us increasing confidence that we'll be able to deliver solid volume growth this year in merchandise. we are off to a strong start to the year for coal. >> csx saw revenue per unit rise this is an efficiency metric the percent of expenses, so, lower is actually better melissa? >> frank, thank you for that where do you go on the rails, transports in general? >> well, there's serious dive

diver jens within that group they're yields were up 14% year over year, because coal yields were up 55%. and i think that's what frank just alluded to. their volume inflected positive. and they gave a pretty good guide. the analyst community is reasonably bullish here. and just because of all the recessionary headwinds, remember, a lot of the pent up demand and a lot of tstuff we needed to move around. >> yeah, transports and i understand a very diverse group, but transports have been underperforming the dow -- for all of you dow theorists out there, not a good sign for the markets. >> yeah, and i think a lot of this, too, is due to last year, and even this year, this is still a built of an issue, is fuel costs have been really one of the biggest issues when it comes to your transports we are starting to see those come down. and you are starting to see, especially with the csx, their coal has been their biggest driver here, which you're going to see moving forward.

so, i think it's something to take a look at i don't think it's the most exciting stock out there, but i would be negative on it. coming up, while failure may be an option soon in silicon valley how the banking crisis taking a serious toll on the once uncontrollable growth in tech land. plus, a number of names on the move postearnings. our traders are picking out the ones to watch. "fast money" is back in two. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

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it's what they live to do... trinet serves small and medium sized businesses... so they can do more of what matters. benefits. payroll. compliance. trinet. people matter. welcome back to "fast money. silicon valley may have its own reckoning in the wake of the banking crisis a major vc executive warning his industry is entering a multi-year correction. he's a partner at qed investors, an early stage vc fin tech firm. great to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> seems like a one-two pun thatch's going to hit vc rates are rising, and we have the banking crisis effecting lending, credit crunch coming. >> yeah, vc is actually going to correct. it's one of the few industries that didn't go through a correction in 2008 and so, since the tech bubble burst, 22 years ago, was the last time there was a meaningful correction around venture

capital. and it was more of a cottage industry at this point there has been a little bit of growth in tech, but it didn't really go all the way around and now, we're starting to see that unlimited capital going into the market, people being hired through all these companies and all these vc firms, tons of vc firms being around, we're about to go through that pscycle where we'r probably going to have a correction >> before the public markets started correcting, right, so, it's kind of sitting there i talk to a lot of vcs like yourself there, you have capital to deploy. are we going to start seeing more deals but just at kind of lower valuation levels, because where you guys play, this is a secular trend that's going to be going on for decades now, and i'm sure you're still seeing opportunities, probably at much better valuation than maybe a year ago >> we are starting to see better opportunities, but the opportunities we're seeing are maybe not as high quality, and so, that's one of the reasons people are putting money to work the other thing is, i think people think they're going to be able to buy it for cheaper

tomorrow, so, we're in this deflation their period, where we haven't hitthe bottom yet. we thought there would be a wall that would come and tons of deal activity would happen, but we still haven't seen that. >> one thing, after silicon valley bank had its demise, everyone started saying, next shoe to drop, and you hear a lot about commercial real estate, you also hear a lot about nonbank financial institutions, which includes asset managers, insurance, hedge funds, and private asset managers the call is for more data, more regulation, what are you hearing, what do you think is coming down the pipe in terms of more government oversight for your industry? >> for venture capital, it doesn't seem as though there's probably that much oversight coming, per se but i think when it comes to banking, we have probably seen, you know, such a small event happen in a relative sense, so, the regulations actually generally work, with the exception of one change that was made with respect to the size of

what institution would become an important financial institution, and be governed a different way. so, i don't see that much regulation coming from what we've seen thus far, but if things continue to get worse, is when you'll start to see the regulatory folks pick up their head >> will we see a wave of bankruptcy among early stage firms at this point? i mean, there's a point where you say, we're not going to put more money into this firm, because our, you know, our framework is going to be different in this environment, in terms of investing. >> yeah, absolutely. i think we had three years in our portfolio without one zero, which is pretty crazy for an early stage fin tech firm. we are starting to see the failures happen, but they're relatively slow, because of what dan talked about a lot of people put so much money into these companies and they'll run until there's $1 left in the bank so, they're not going to fold tent if they have, you know, a million dollars left they're going to continue to operate and punch like they're going to get out of it >> i would think that time frame

is shortened if there's a recession. >> absolutely. your top line starts to shrink very quickly and your burn goes up and that's, you know, game over >> all right, chuck ie, see you again soon >> thank you so much >> that sounds kind of scary >> well, it's a fascinating time, although i'm sure there are many in the vc world that say they welcome the shaking out of this, i mean, things have gotten really fluffy it's also an interesting dynamic, because there are a lot -- especially in the private equity world, there are a lot of funding obligations for bad companies, and private equity companies have to make some hard decisions. are they going to keep throwing money down the hole on a company they've been supporting not making money and i see this in a lot of different industries, you see private equity guys that are at some point, like, they're hemorrhaging, too, because they're forced at some point, this is very good for the public markets, okay if you think about both scarcity value and you think about just, at least, the quality factor of

those companies that are here, that are, you know, growth companies and need to be given the right multiple, right now, they're not being given that but i think this bodes -- whenever that is, this is good for public >> you made -- the question you had about, are we going to start seeing companies go out of business, you know, before svb, there was calls for mass extinction events of really poorly capitalized, bad valuations, so, you have to think that is going to start to accelerate they can only cut so much because they just kind of have to, like, shut the doorses. >> right. up next, from housing to chips to smokes. the earnings that caught our traders eyes. plus, our next guest is throwing out a curveball health care pick. will the traders be swinging on this one more on that coming up "fast money" is back in two. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared

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welcome back to "fast money. we want to dig into some of the big movers today american express, taiwan semi, phillip morris and dr horton some of the names on the move. so, which one stood out? courtney, you are leaning towards dr horton? >> yeah, we talked a lot about the home builders. people have been very negative on and they continue to hit 52-week highs, though mortgage rates have remained high at this point, what you're really seeing with the home

builders, they are trading a lot more on the supply/demand constraints. people are underestimating how, you know, aggressive that is there are so many more people who need houses than houses available. to put in perspective, right now, new builds are about a third of available houses, where as typically, only about 10% of available houses and that's because people who have houses right now aren't selling them they don't want to sell and get into a higher mortgage and that's going to continue to happen, especially as your millennials and gen-z are getting into the homebuying. >> a strong day across the board when it comes to housing at large, not just the builders, but the materials, et cetera want to get to taiwan semi rebecca, you are watching this closely, not just for the results, because they want more money. >> we've been talking a little bit with florida, with u.s./china, about more intervention igs governments, and tsmc, aside what's going on within the company itself, is a

great example. the u.s. wants to get the super advanced chips in america, so, if anything outside taiwan, we're good but doing that is coming at a price. and the u.s. has already given them quite a lot in subsidies, and now they're asking for more to increase the build in arizona. i think it's $15 billion in subsidies, that's what was reported they're asking for, and so, when you take a step back and say, okay, we're going to have national security, economic resilience, at a cost of stagflation, and so, when you think about, well, what does that mean for everything it means we're going to have relatively higher discount rates, and we're probably going to have inflation settling medium-term, at a slightly higher level and we're going to have lower levels of growth and that came through again in the imf meetings last week they are predicting -- no recession, which is interesting, but five years of very uninspiring low growth globally, and so, tsmc, what's happening there, i think, is a microcosm of what's happening on the

global stage >> all right, coming up, we are dusting off the gloves, bringing you a fast pitch why our next guest is throwing some heat on one health care stock you can feel good about. the name, when "fast money" returns. the complexities of modern work... [phone: turn left.] ...you need more than technology. you need cdw. [phone: you have arrived.] so we'll implement cloud based microsoft modern work solutions like microsoft 365, teams and azure, so your teams can collaborate with zero trust security anywhere. [phone: destination ahead.] microsoft makes modern work possible. cdw makes it powerful.

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welcome back evolent health has been soaring. nancy pril thinks the stock's growth plan could knock it out of the park. nancy, welcome to the show again. tell what we like here is they are beating the numbers, they beat nicely in the fourth quarter, they raised guidance in the

first quarter, revenues are growing 45%, they're just breaking into profitability, return on equity is improving, so, they are expecting to be at a $300 million run rate on ebita by the fourth quarter of 2024, that translates to about a buck 65 in earnings two times sales on the fiscal '24 sales gets you to $50 a stock. we think it's a really strong by here cyclical growth, cyclical tailwinds, good spending patterns >> this is a tech company that operates in the health care space? i'm trying to understand how they use this. >> yeah, so, they provide the technology that underlays these systems. so, yeah, you can think of them as a software company. but they're playing in thelt care space, and health care is an area we like particularly as we go into this slower economic scenario to find a company that can continue to beat and raise is going to be increasingly scarce

>> how do id they fare during t last recession >> so, this is a relatively new business, and they've been growing by acquisition and they're a relatively new company. so, we don't really know, but we do know that health care tends to do well in recessionary times, and what we've seen in value-based care is that it is a way, again, to manage costs, it's a way to smooth out the revenue stream for the positions and the practices that use value-based care, so, all indications are that it will do very well, even in a recessionary environment >> all right, nancy, good to see you. thank you. >> thank you >> all right, let's go around the horn here and see what the traders think of this pitch. evolent health, evh. tim, kick us off >> hold up by board, too >> it's a buy. by the way, that also says let's go rangers, in case anybody wanted to know i thought it was a great pitch i thought it was an interesting

area value-based care is -- it's a leading edge in the health care business about improving costs, but also improving outcomes and the trend here certainly got their back they're one of the leading players and i like the call. >> courtney? >> i have a pass on this i'm not going to be buying it. >> naetdid you write that or is that a sten sill >> that would be nice. >> very nice handwriting >> i think my problem is, they are getting into profitability, which she mentioned, but they are not yet profitable it is a very small company, so, nothing i'm jumping into right now. >> rebecca >> so, i'm saying, within the small cap space, i'm not very happy, because i think we're in that part of the cycle where small cap is going to be even more challenge than large cap companies to get the funding they need to grow. and small caps generally speaking are much more leveraged. however, if i'm thinking about where i'm allocating across eck weties, i like health care and i like adding onto weakness in health care, so, i would prefer

a bigger cap health care name but if i'm doing security selection within small cap, then this makes sense to look at. >> all right dan? >> i was just going to say what she said and -- no -- >> your handwriting -- what happened to you? >> i just said sure. listen, that was a great pitch and i just say this, i went and look at the chart, the stock was trading at 52-week all-time high in september and by november, it was trading near 20, to a 52-week low, so, i don't have an expertise in small caps, certainly don't in health care that's why i said that's what you said i like what you had to say there. >> you all get a-pluses for the blackboard work. >> been a long time. kind of an exciting day. >> i know. >> thank you. up next, final trades.

do you ever worry we'll live forever? no, it's literally never crossed my mind. what if we live to like 100? that's 35 years of being retired. i don't want to outlive our money. and i have been eating all these stupid chia seeds! i could totally live to be 100! why do i keep taking such good care of my- since we started working with empower, we're able to get all our financial questions answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- no. never. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com - double check that. of your financial future to empower what's next. eh, pretty good! (whistles) yeek. not cryin', are ya? let's tighten that. (fabric ripping) ooh. - wait, wh- wh- what was that? - huh? what, that? no, don't worry about that. here we go. - asking the right question can greatly impact your future. - are, are you qualified to do this?

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welcome back before we get to final trades, we want to highlight a new op-ed by rebecca on cnbc.com her piece stresses the importance of teaching personal finance to teachers first. rebecca, it is shocking when i read through this, how little there is required in terms of course work for financial

literacy, basically nothing. >> yeah, so, half the states in the country require one class in economics or personal finance to graduate which is kind of amazing, when you think that these kids graduate, many go to college, they don't know how to use a credit card, they don't know how to save for retirement, and then they turn into people making decisions about, oh, i don't know, banks, policy. so, we need to start young, and we need to do more right now, if we hit the next five biggest states that don't require anything, and i'm going to name them, pennsylvania, illinois, washington state, massachusetts, maryland, that would reflect 15% of gdp and almost 14% of all american high school students. so, it only takes a little bit five states to have a huge imon the economy broadly and to train the teachers to train those students we need to get less than 1% of all the teachers in high schools in the united states to get every kid educated so, to me, this is a no brainer,

but we need state governments -- >> right >> to move >> right, it's all local in terms of raising money, there's an interesting auction somebody is auctioning off his time >> so, the founder of my former firm bridgewater associates has very generously agreed to have a private lunch with the winner and up to two guests with him in new york city at some point in the next year -- >> that is worth something that's awesome >> yeah. this is one of the most brilliant thinkers of our generation, someone who built a hedge fund from scratch and is now the biggest in the world >> website is on the screen. check it out final trade. tim? >> yeah, i think bidding up sn again, i get back to the asset mix. i think you also -- you have a company that is now going to pull subscribers, forecast and focus on profitability that's where we are in '24 >> courtney? >> american express. it was down today on concerns about their loan loss provision, but a lot of positivity when you look at their overallnumbers

and i think it's worth the play. >> rebecca >> i'm going to sell small caps, russell. >> dan nathan? >> i remain a seller of nvidia i got a lot smarter sitting next to her >> great having you here thank you for watching "fast money. see you tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. you tomorrow 0 for more "fast money." jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. you want to know the best way to miss big opportunities every single day it's