held speaking events yesterday thanks for that. we have a full breakdown of their message to the markets about the may policy meeting disney is not backing down in the fight against ron desantis, governor of florida. the company told lobbyists this week to get to work. and elon musk's twitter started eliminating legacy blue check marks. musk is personally paying for some celebrities to keep theirs. that's a little hurtful. it is friday, april 21st, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on

cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. it's friday. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's look at the u.s. equities. you will see modest declines dow futures off 31 nasdaq down by 10. the s&p down by 3. the dow and s&p on pace for the worst week since march 10th. we will see how things shape up. if you see what is happening in the treasury market, the 10-year treasury is yielding 3.5%. the 2-year treasury at 4.114 in the meantime, disney stepping up the fight with governor ron desantis. sources say disney pushing lobbyists to step up efforts to influence the republican controlled state legislate you are -- legislature they are keying in on a florida bill that could hurt the company. including land use bills and start aggressively working against them now desantis controls the senate

legislature with the gop supermajority. disney may count on the political perception a spokesperson for disney declined to comment on the lobbying efforts some say it is time now for disney to sue. what would happen if you took this to court? i don't know, maybe the judges are all desantis appointees. >> it is hard to fight the government when the government chooses to step in >> this is a unifying experience it is bipartisan nobody likes this. nobody republicans might even be louder about this than democrats. >> pushing back against desantis >> i think he did really well -- i'm not living to people about covid. he got in his head whatever he does culturely or socially, it

will pay off the state of florida is my kingdom. >> magic kingdom >> literally look at his polls it is scary. i see it every day i think former president trump has 54 endorsements. desantis has 2 they flipped in new hampshire. desantis was up in new hampshire. a 33-point flip. >> desantis went to washington and while he was there, republican congress members endorsed trump on that very day. >> very odd. it's a company the company. this is not what republicans do or else you can't criticize -- >> yup >> when they criticize companies for getting too woke and siding with the government, why are you

siding the government can't control you. suddenly trying to control here. elon musk's launch was that good or bad launched the starship rocket it flew for four minutes and successfully separated from the booster. the rocket then suffered a rapid u unscheduled disassembly. >> i think they were joking. >> mckenzie is not joking when he said it it blew up spectacularly. spacex leadership stress the experimental nature of the launch and any result that involved starship getting off the launch pad -- those are low expectations maybe it is real maybe they are real expectations for the engineering you are trying to accomplish

still, musk said the company learned a lot from the test yesterday and teased another test launch in a few months. >> rocket science is hard. >> there were 33 engines on this thing. >> what was this thing worth >> the cost? i don't know >> it is nothing compared to tesla shares yesterday he lost more than $13 billion in tesla shares >> is it in the "bs" for this? >> the rocket itself i don't think so it's rocket science. it's hard. he looked nonplussed if you watched him in the control room as it happened >> the couple days prior, he had been tamping down expectations of what was possible i think they do this knowing they will put it up and it might fail and see how it works. >> you saw the offsets you need

to buy for this? >> carbon offsets? >> how many? >> a lot i don't know how many countries for a year driving >> environmental articles about the area where this is taking place. how many of these things will go land in the water and what that does >> debris? >> yes it takes something on the order, the last time it happened, three months to go out and clean it up and find all of the debris and do the work. it is a project. >> i guess we got to go to mars. we got to do these things. >> i think so. >> the royal we? >> yeah. all of us. humanity needs to continue to forge ahead. >> somebody else. >> i said that it will not be me it might be you, you said. >> i would go after a lot of other people went.

>> after not eating potatoes grown in poop. >> yes shares of tesla lost 10% of the value yesterday. shares are up 1.25% this morning. this comes after the company is raising prices in the united states on most of the high-end vehicles model s and model x. sticker prices are below well where they were at the start of the year that was the issue yesterday gross margins and whether they continue to go down from here and what happens with that again, stock is up 1.25% this morning. yesterday's drop by tesla represented a loss of $55 billion in market value. $13 billion of that was elon musk's portion of it if you are looking at facebook, the parent company meta platforms, passed its market cap based on yesterday's close up 140% from the november 2022

lows. >> while we are talking about elon and tesla we are all mnaked in terms of blue check marks >> yeah. >> my son told me. people are angry i said, oh, no i was kidding. then people were writing your blue check mark is gone. i'm hoping the sun will come up tomorrow i was almost like clint. make my day. i hate twitter you cannot -- i hate the people on twitter it brings out the worst things >> get off of it >> i don't want to think of humanity the way i think of these people >> you don't have to be on there. >> i'm not going to get off if it is free i'm not buying a subscription. i'm not a celebrity? i'm not. who gets these

lebron james >> lebron james. they kept the blue check mark although he doesn't want the blue check mark. >> they took it away from the pope >> lebron james. he scored over 25. i made money with him. he's on my good side more than enough to buy a check mark how much is it >> $8. >> i could buy two check marks yes. let's talk about amazon. whole foods laying off employees. in a memo, the company executive team said it would reorganize global and regional support teams. as a result, it would layoff several hundred employees from the teams. upscale grocer saying the cuts translates to .50% of the company's global work force. amazon global work force buzzfeed ceo notifying employees the company is laying

off 15% of staff and shutting down news unit the cuts amount to 180 people out of 1,200 buzzfeed news had 100 employees and lost $10 million per year. they won a pulitzer prize in 2020 shares have fallen 90% since the spac in 2021 the market cap from $1.5 billion to $100 million. jumped at the right time >> decimal point 75 cents >> this is it. apparently, they embraced generative a.i buzzfeed will use open a.i >> to write all of the stories >> whatever. >> to generate click bait.

>> yes >> i don't like that for friday, i don't like a lot of things. coming up, i like it is friday we'll get you ready for next week's mega cap tech earnings. later this morning, we hear from p&g. they sell everything you can buy in every country in the world. it gives us a good idea of what is happening first on cnbc interview with ceo jon moeller. you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. i know some consultants with great ideas. can they help us improve our digital experience? absolutely. they've invested over $2 billion in tech.

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it's a big week for tech earnings next week including reports from alphabet, microsoft, meta and amazon joining us now with what to expect is gunjan banjeri i want to -- how are you good to see you, gunjan. in terms of what this means for the overall market, i think what we have seen pin the s&p this week is interesting. it looks like it is stalling out. like whatever we saw the bounce from october doesn't look

like -- it doesn't look like it is necessarily going to get through the resistance levels. could tech do it if it is not so bad next week? is that the impetus for starting another leg up >> joe, it has been a remarkably quiet period out there i think people looking at the broader index level and 0.1% moves are missing the picture. underneath, we are seeing the huge moves for the mega caps this week. tesla down 10% netflix move after earnings this week that is a warning sign going into the important earnings week next week with the mega cap tech stocks reporting earnings. zooming out, i think analysts are not expecting a great season analysts are expecting profits for information technology

companies within the s&p to fall 15% for the quarter. that is more than double the decline for the s&p 500 and it would be the worst quarterly decline since 2009. >> now i'm hearing, gunjan, 2024 someone last night said the election is only 18 months away. which election oh, my gosh. is that true >> mm-hmm. >> the next year of comparisons is not that far away what do we decide about 2023 this is going to be the low point? it will be flat. what do we know about 2024 is there a resumption of better growth, tdo you think >> i think 2024 just seems so far out right now. you know, so many investors thought we would be in recession right now in the second quarter of 2023. clearly that keeps guesetting

pushed further and further out it seems investors are expecting the worst of the trough for earnings to pass after this quarter. that means, you know, what executives are saying the next few days and weeks is really important. what are they saying about cost cutting or profits we had a number of companies talk about layoffs what are these companies saying about that i think investors aring going to be really focused on clues they can get on the broader economy in terms of the market when you look at how much stocks have valued this year, particularly tech stocks, investors are saying the worst may be behind us soon. the next few weeks will determine whether or not that is true >> the macro picture housing sales awful. what did we say? how many fed guys talked yesterday? we still are trying to figure out whether there is more or 25

or 50. then we don't know the credit contraction is from the tumult in the regional banks and financial sector do consumers have anything left? sometimes i hear american express says everything is fine and you hear about all of the trading to the low end it seems like there are so many variables. there always are, gunjan what are the most important factors do you think >> i think the fed is still looming large. i think consumers still have a lot of money to spend. we have seen that with the travel results recently. when you look around, you look at restaurants and airports. they are packed right now. a lot of investors are still expecting one more rate hike and then for the fed to be done. that's in contrast to what the fed has said i think any developments on that front could hurt particularly tech the next few weeks and

months because investors are expecting rate cuts and expecting a slowdown in rate hikes. any language around that changing would ding stocks we are seeing the nasdaq under perform thanks to the drop in tesla. >> gunjan, thank you anything going on? concerts that you have planned you have taylor swift tickets yet? >> i didn't land the taylor swift tickets. no >> are you a swiftie >> i'm not a huge swiftie actually. >> okay. we are here. >> i think we're swifties. >> i like her. >> i'm a fan of taylor swift the entrepreneur and the music >> have you tried -- gunjan,

thank you. have you ever tried to write a song >> only on chatgpt. >> it is hard enough to write the words, but then you have to have a melody? >> and belt them out meantime, second quarter results. earnings are 62 cents a share. net interest margin came in at 4.2% ahead of the quarterly estimates. quarter deposits fell from the prior quarter. some good news in that space coming up, elon musk's twitter begun eliminating the legacy blue check marks. musk says he is personally paying for celebrities to keep theirs we're going to debate that after this plus news out of canada. a gold heist at the toronto

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welcome back to "squawk box. twitter has started to remove blue check marks to users who refuse to pay for sub descr subscr subscriptions. including chrissy teigen and mark hamill and jason alexander. all have lost check marks since last night

others ss said they would not p and still have their check marks including lebron james and steven king. musk tweeted i'm paying for a few of them personally i think trying to get people to say if lebron james has a blue check mark, i need one it is a loser thing to have. steven king, by the way, who said he would never pay for one. elon responded saying i didn't pay for this or give my phone number he said thanks namaste or something to that effect >> steven finishing had been respectful he used the platform, but he wou wound up with one. >> if enough celebrities have the blue check mark -- >> some journalists say today is

the day you find out i'm paying for it don't hate me sdp >> it would not be lebron sitting down to write a check. if he told someone to pay for it >> when king writes my twitter account says i subscribe to twitter blue i haven't. i have given a phone number. i haven't. is that a good look? >> he doesn't want anyone to think he would do that >> right >> elon musk responds, you're welcome. namaste. >> i don't know how it works out. >> this was the big effort to create revenue >> you have 1 million the folfo -- 1 million t million followers or more? >> i hope they do. there will be a lot more.

>> what does it do >> it doesn't mean anything. anybody can buy an account for $9 and say they are that. >> it is $8 a month? >> $8.99 a month i can stop doing draftkings. >> stop buying coffee. >> one day starbucks for one day. >> right >> i don't know how this pwill play out i don't think we are finished talking about this >> i used to like the blue checkmarks for a different reason it wasn't an ego thing it was a way to filter who you are viewing. except elon musk would say that is not how you filter. people with blue checkmarks -- this goes to who is an expert and who is not he is trying to flatten the

field. >> there is something to be said for that it is how i use it >> i'll respond to people with zero followers if they say i'm wearing a wig. i'll not take it >> from the bots >> yes i'm furious. i don't care if they say something nice. >> the other thing is he thought if you had to subscribe, it would prevent the bots >> it would eliminate the bots, but not the tropills. >> you will get more reach if you pay which goes to the idea of the lords and peasants things if you pay, you get more people. if you don't pay, you get less people. when we come back, six fed officials held speaking events yesterday. we have the wrap up of the comments and what it means for the next fed meeting. as we head to break, we have

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box oibox. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square dow off 40 points. nasdaq opening down 30 points. s&p is off 6.5 points, becky. six fed officials head speaking events yesterday. joining us to break it down is steve liesman. >> good morning, becky officials delivered a uniform message. inflation is too high. they are watching the banking situation, but suggest it is not enough to address the inflation problem with rate hikes. that is the way the markets

priced some of the fed's report suggests the banking situation is not returning to normal and that raises questions if the fed officials are factoring in enough here is new york fed president john williams from wednesday conditions in the banking sector stabilized and it is sound and resilient. the beige book said the financial situation deteriorated the kbw banking index is below the level of the collapse of silicon valley bank. and the new bank term funding program created to help banks in the wake of the silicon valley bank failure actually rose in the last week by $2 billion and remains at $74 the$74 billion. the fed fund futures is below where it was with the fed's

forecast the fed should continue with rate hikes and it will get help from tighter credit conditions there are key indicators that are not convinced everything is back the way it was. becky. >> steve, thank you very much. we have been watching this closely. you have been doing a great job chronicling it we want to bring in roger ferguson former vice chairman of the federal reserve and cnbc contributor. roger, most people in the market think we are looking at a one and done situation that is the message from at least several of the fed speakers is that your take on things? >> that's generally my take on things, becky. by the way, good morning the one thing i find interesting and steve reported on how uniform this message is. often at a turning point, you

hear contrary voices showing there is argument on both sides. i think one and done is most likely the uniformity and inflation is relatively high may leave the possibility of the june hike on the table. i would say one and done more likely, but not fully baked in yet. >> you have people like waller who said the issues on inflation and mester says there are things that need to be dealt with if they raise rates one more time and rates are not coming down soon. you better learn to live with these rates. the market is factoring in a cut later this year or early next year >> i think you are reading it correctly. the market, i think, is more optimistic about fed cuts and the fed themselves obviously incoming data will show what actually happens indeed, inflation is still running above the 2%

university of michigan survey consumer sentiment expectation for inflation showed measures that consumer expectation of inflation have actually risen. i think the market and the fed are not in the same place with the expectation of rate cut this year obviously, incoming data may prove one of the two sides wrong. i think the fed is expecting to keep it higher for longer than the market >> you know, it vis really weir. you talk about the inflation period where the fed is about to turn it is an inflection period with the economy. you can look at numbers with american express with travel and leisure spending sky rocketing still. united with the same usuaissue n we heard from it this week you see signs of stress and slowdown and credit crunch how long do you think it will take before we really figure our way through as to where we

stand? >> i think it will take quite a while, frankly, for the reasons you point out. we have some interest sensitive sectors such as housing which is showing strains and stresses of rising rates we have seen a labor market that is softening, but still not soft as you point out, some elements of the economy are strong and will likely continue that is one reason the fed is more likely to hold rates up we aren't in the place where the entire economy is rolling over we don't want to see that necessarily. there are strengths in the economy to keep inflation well above the target for a period of time i think the fed wants to really make sure that the disinflationary process is in advance before it starts to talk about cutting rates. >> roger, you said for a while that you think a turn do you know -- turn down is coming

do you think it is a soft landing or hard landing or how is the credit crunch with the banks going through crisis or tightening situation they are facing >> so, i have said and continue to believe that likely recession is more likely than not. i still think it is more likely to be a softer recession as opposed to a hard one. the credit tightening that is going on which has been talked about in the fed beige book does suggest conditions are more fraught and harder recession i'm not in the camp with the credit crunch. i see credit tightening in various places count me still in a soft and shallow recession camp right now, but the risk to the downside given the changing credit dynamics in the country >> roger, thank you. have a great weekend >> thank you, becky. coming up, potentially bad

news for ryan reynolds the doj antitrust division reportedly looking into the t-mobile acquisition of mint mobile details are next we have no pictures? why are we showing generic pictures instead of him on the set? virginia governor glenn youngkin joins us to talk everything from taxes to his upcoming trip to asia. get the best of "squawk box" with your "squawk pod" with you favorite podcast apps d stanlien any time

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t-mobile proposed deal to buy wireless carrier mint mobile facing scrutiny from the government the anti-trust department from the doj is worried that the merger is part of the consolidation trend to push higher prices for customers. right now, t-mobile shares off 89 cents >> everything mint mobile was doing is a reseller of service

with the branded component they were buying whole ssale access and pricing it up i don't know i think they were using the t-mobile network to begin with >> more than just t-mobile >> i don't know. you know, we were saying before where everybody loves a heist story. i don't know if you love a heist story. news from canada police investigating the heist of nearly $15 million in gold and other high value goods from the shipping container container was five square feet in size. it was offloaded from the plane at toronto international airport and secured in the cargo holding facility it was reported missing. toronto authorities said the thieves accessed the public side of the warehouse leased to the third party outside of the primary security line. authorities have not disclosed where the cargo came from or where it was going or who owned

it >> would you ship that >> that much gold? i don't know >> it is also -- that's a good scam it's not like serial marked? maybe the bars are it seems you could really fence that somewhere without having to worry about it being traced back you can't do art what idiot steals art? unless it is hidden in a billionaire's place. gold, isn't gold -- >> melt it down. >> you could -- what was the name "money heist." >> that was it >> did you see there are people getting caught for using cryptocurrency as part of the fraud and scams because one of the great things of crypto is you can track it forever the authorities have now figured out how to get into the ledger to track it. >> which is the argument in favor of crypto. >> it was used to create crimes

and now the crimes from as far as 2011 are being prosecuted as they figure it out >> i don't know. >> maybe it is not smart for scams. >> use the gold. >> are the raiders in las vegas? >> they moved. >> from oakland? >> yeah. >> vegas vegas is stealing things from oakland. athletics are moving to vegas. the team decided to leave the bay area as soon as the end of the 2024 season with the league's blessing. the a's over -- ownership deal will buy a plot of land. it will cost $1.5 billion. it is built with a mix of public and private offerings. it will secure the funding for the ballpark and pass a vote of mlb owners with at least 75%

support. i was talking off camera i don't know chicken and egg they are 3-16. god bless them they were lucky to win those three games. who will watch you don't get any receipts it is not the fans fault they are 3-16 because they don't have the payroll >> and it is following the population follow the population boom just like the teams from new york that moved out to california >> we have super bowl in vegas next year. f1 in vegas in the fall. >> that's cool i do love that >> i think we all think it will be in town for the weekend it is the people the who live in vegas. >> right i love las vegas gambling thing it is only a couple of days. you can't stay there a week.

you would be crazy then you do appreciate vegas if you go to atlantic city and walk out of a casino and think you are in vegas you are not in vegas >> spending time at the casinos? >> i don't i don't. i swore off. i play blackjack all the time. don't bring a credit card. don't bring a credit card. >> we can discuss this off air we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones my dad was a hard worker. he used to do side jobs installing windows, charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that.

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welcome back to "squawk." joe manchin blasting president biden for refusing to negotiate with house speaker kevin mccarthy over his debt limit plan will both sides get back to the table, or is the nation headed to a default

we bring in the director of budget and policy development. good morning ramina, i will start with you. there is a question about whether house speaker mccarthy is holding biden hostage or biden is holding him hostage >> i think we saw a really good opening bid from speaker mccarthy and i believe the house will vote on that next week. time for president biden to come to the table and negotiate this debt limit put forth and place policies that stabilizes the debt so it doesn't grow past the size of the u.s. economy >> romina, they come to the table with what? it's not clear that house speaker mccarthy has come up with a plan, if you will >> they've put forth a complete plan they want to save at least

4.5 trillion over the next ten years, which is about half of what's necessary to stabilize the debt over that time period, but it's at least as big as the budget control act in 2011 that boehner and obama negotiated, so we do have a precedent there, and i believe biden can do what obama did back then and agree to a deal with republicans that will save some money for taxpayers and put us on a better path >> jean, how do you react to that >> it's a plan it's a very radical plan it doesn't reflect the values of americans and would have tremendous harm for families, for our economy, for everything we hold dear and i think what we've seen right now is that the house majority is actually holding our country hostage. the debt limit is not something to play around with. we know that failure to pay our bills would have a catastrophic

impact in the u.s. and across global financial systems, the global economy it's time to have a clean vote to raise or suspend the debt limit. >> jean, let's say we do that and then we enter -- the republicans concede to the president we'll do that but then they want to enter into budget talks at that point. do you think some of these really simple things in this mccarthy plan, you called it radical. would you not do anything at all about the 32 trillion in debt? is there anything in there that has merit in your view or just continue a pace the way that we're going right now? does that seem reasonable or would you negotiate afterwards to try to cut the spending >> you made an important distinction there and it's one to remember, that the debt limit is about all the past decisions since the founding -- >> i understand. >> yeah, paying our bills for the past, yes.

>> do the clean one. >> the time to talk about our priorities let's put the 2017 tax cut on the table, which is responsible for the vast majority of the increase in the debt ratio in the country. let's talk about that. there's certainly a lot of proposals rather than rolling back the funding to support -- >> we had record revenues after that the government got record revenues it's not a revenue problem it's a spending problem. >> i would take factual issue with that point. i think everything we know, we've recently published an analysis that looks at the data on that. if you look at the increase, about 57% of the increase in the debt ratio, if you pull out interest payments is attributable to the bush tax cuts, the trump tax cuts, let's put those on the table let's look at funding for tax

administration and enforcement we just had a great tax filing system in large part because of the money that we've put into the irs since the inflation reduction act. speaker mccarthy's proposal would roll that back that puts us in a deeper hole. >> jean, i'm sorry, romina, react to that. i think there's some real -- there's some real contention here. >> yeah, it sounds like what jean is saying, you got to spend some money to make money but in this case i do think that this is a very reasonable plan. i would actually say it is too modest because the debt will still rise under the plan that speaker mccarthy has put forth and so i think one of the most promising proposals we saw is from the problem solvers caucus this week which proposes an independent brac-like fiscal commission made up of outside experts and citizens instead of

members of congress has a greater chance of being successful what politicians will need toward to do what's necessary, namely, medicare and social security reform, which make up 95% of long-term unfunded obligations, they'll need political cover to do that and i think a nonpartisan independent commission that acts like the base realignment and closer commission which was successful unemployment the super committee which we experienced recently has the greatest chance of success. >> we got to leave the conversation there romina and jean, thank you both. >> thank you have a beautiful day. >> thanks. procter & gamble, take a look the tape, earnings came in $1.37 topping estimates by 5 cents on revenue of 20.07 billion, and that also beat estimates the company has got some really interesting things to say about fiscal 2023 in terms of the

guidance one of the interesting things is there still is a problem here with commodities, freight costs and forex. $1.40 a share head wind to fiscal '23 earnings. as a result, since the earnings per share are going to be, i guess these are reported e earnings per share towards the lower end of the fiscal year guidance although the company still sees fiscal year earnings per share growth in a range of flat to up 4% versus fiscal 5.81 for 2022 five percentage point for forex and then we -- >> they're still able to raise -- >> sales growth. organic sales growth is what we always talk about and now they are saying 6% versus a prior range of 4% to 5%. >> what's crazy, if you look at

the volume, volumedown 3% across the board that became because of weakness. >> you know how they're getting 6% >> 10% price increases and raising prices and apparently it's sticking. >> and when procter & gamble raises prices, it's like -- maybe it's not across the board but they got a lot of different things that -- >> it is, i'm looking at it. fabric and home care up 13%. baby care up 8%. >> well, we'll talk to, coming up, a first on cnbc interview with procter & gamble's ceo jon moeller straight ahead and talk about oakland, 3-1 n6,ot much better -- "squawk box" will be right back

good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box. right here on cnbc live at the nasdaq marketsite in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin along

with becky quick and joe kernen. red on the screen, dow off 62 points, s&p 500 off about 11 nasdaq off about 65 points, also show you treasuries, we got some earnings news coming in as we speak. the ten-year at 3.524. two-year, 4.116, joe. >> procter & gamble results hitting the tape earnings, $1.37 a share topping estimates by 5 cents revenue of 20.07 billion if you need to go out that many decimal points joining us to break down the numbers, jon moeller, chairman and ceo of and president of procter & gamble are you in that building in downtown cincinnati, jon >> i am in the basement of cincinnati, absolutely >> you are what's the acronym for that building >> let's not >> i call it headquarters. >> okay.

just -- i don't want to bury the lede you're raising the organic sales growth from a previous range which i think you were happy with 4 to 5. now you're talking about 6 most of that is price increases, jon? did we get that right because unit volume is down? >> so let me start with the organic sales growth which was over 7%. we grew organic sales in every category up low teens, home care, health care, hair care up double digits, grooming and oral care, fabric care up high singles, baby care up mid single, family and personal care up low singles and that does give us the confidence to raise our guidance range from a range of 4% to 5% for the fiscal year which ends in june to a guidance of about 6% on the volume side we're making sequential progress and really

have seen lower price elasticities with some of the increases we've needed to take to recover input costs, inflation. last quarter volume was minus 6, this quarter, it's minus 3 that would be minus 2 excluding some portfolio adjustments we made, and we have categories in countries that are beginning to turn neutral to positive on volume so i'm very pleased overall with where we stand there i'm equally pleased on the bottom line. the team has done a tremendous job offsetting 23 points of head winds from commodities and foreign exchange while growing a very strong top line while being fully invested and continuing to expand our margin of superiority to grow markets, to build household penetration. we also took up our expectation for cash return to shareholders to a range of 16 to 17 billion this year. so a great quarter, which the

team gets all the credit for >> well, i mean, you're no slouch obviously it's your team forex, it's amazing to me, strong dollar. do you think the fed should stop do you like inflation? does that help or is that a headwind what's more of a headwind, the forex for inflation? take your pick >> they're about equal actually. both are well over a billion dollars each the combination of the two $3.5 billion for the fiscal year and if you look at the last two years together, about $7 billion in head wind from those items, which, again, the team has done just an incredible job of more than offsetting so we grew earnings per share last year with a strong top line we'll grow modestly this year

again with a very strong top line, and that doesn't, as you know, happen by accident, so there's a lot of good work going on all around the organization to offset both of those headwinds. >> you think of p&g's products i would think they're relatively elastic but there must be elasticity in high end versus low end. like a different consumer products companies you're seeing some trading down, jon >> we are seeing some, but very little, quite frankly. if you look at private label as a proxy for trade down in the categories we operate in, it's up very modestly from a market share standpoint up 20 basis points past three, six, 12 months up a little more than that in europe but in that context, our brands are holding our building share in the u.s., for example, in the quarter we just completed, value share up 0.4 points, volume up

0.9 points so there are trade down to amex that starries by category but not a major besc descriptor >> is there going to be a recession? do you see any signs of it for this year, next year what is your best guess? >> i think that, first of all, it's very hard to posit an intelligent guess. >> that doesn't -- do you watch cnbc >> i do, i do. but i wouldn't expect anything significant unless we have a major -- another new crack, either in the banking system or in the geopolitical environment, but with the data we have on hand right now, we're expecting some difficulty, but nothing significant.

>> do you expect a credit contraction from what we've seen already? would you be able to pick up on something like that? i think you know everything being based in cincinnati and selling products all around the world, you're pretty good. you have the finger on the pulse of a lot of different things do you think -- if there were a credit contraction do you think the fed should still be raising another 25 basis points? >> well, i'm not going to get into the fed's business. i got a big enough job to do right here along with the team, but we're not seeing any indication of significant cracks in the credit market or credit contraction again to this point. >> i mean, procter & gamble, all you got to do is what you do i always say that about microsoft. i mean, gee, people still buying windows but there are other things you're trying to do what are they? is it logistics? can you make that better when you're trying to deliver and

sell things? what is your next big initiative >> well, one of the five legs of our strategy is something we call constructive disruption which is disrupting in a constructive, creative way each of the activity systems that have supported our business for years. so how can we, for example, in the advertising space achieve even further reach while eliminating wasted frequency and in the process have a much stronger program that costs less we're doing the same type of thing on the manufacturing floor, working to, for example, automate quality control, realtime on the line as opposed to at the end of the line, which saves us a fair amount of money and raises our ability to provide 100% good quality product to consumers on a daily basis, so it impacts everything

and everyone's an innovator at p&g. >> what's your favorite mode of advertising at this point? all of the above >> yeah, it really depends on the individual brand and category there are some categories where broad delivery is very wasteful, think about a category like baby care as an example unless you have an intent or a toddler, it's not relevant communication for you, so you spend a lot of money in broad scale advertising to reach a fairly narrow target so the digital tools give us the act to significantly narrow that target and serve that consumer even better. on the other hand if you look at something like gillette and razors, sunday afternoon in the fall is still a real good time to advertise razors and blades >> just really quickly, volume

down, is that a sign of distress to consumers are they trying to get by with less using -- loading the dishwasher a few more times, cramming things up and putting more in the washing machine? >> there is some of that, becky, for sure, but you're seeing a reflection of post-covid drawdown of both home inventories and retail inventories. i think we're largely through that which is why you start to see the volumes recover a little bit. >> we're not hoarding anymore. >> at least not my family. we'll have to see how the dynamic continues to unfold, but to date it's better than we expected, and consumers are staying -- these are categories, as you know very well, it's hard to significantly reduce waste and be -- reduce usage and be comfortable as a family. i mean, people don't generally

stop washing their hair, generally don't stop washing their clothes. once you're using disposables it's hard to consider an alternative but there is certainly usage contraction at the margin >> seen some offense this year, glimmers and then none do you think it's a bullpen thing? before the trade expiration, what would you do? >> i have to be honest, you know, with travel re-opening, i have been in the city very few days -- >> you're punting on the reds question huh? i can tell you that we could use some better relief at pitchers at times. >> any team can use pitching. >> that's it i think you're right i absolutely think you're right and we see it with the mets and yankees when they get hurt, you can't win without pitching

jon, thank you great day. do you think shares a-- >> governor glenn youngkin will join us and talk tensions with china. "squawk box" coming back right after this >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird, visit bairddifference.com. there are some things that go better... together. burger and fries... soup and salad. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings.

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slb, the company formerly known as schlumberger reporting an adjusted 63 cents a share better than the 60 the street was looking for and revenue beating expectations coming in at $7.74 billion the estimate was $7.4 billion. the board also approving a quarterly cash dividend of 25 cents a share of outstanding stock and says the outlook for the full year remains what they call very solid. the stock right now down by about 22 -- up by 3 cents, never mind dom chu has a look at the other movers this morning. >> happy friday, becky >> yes, very happy friday. >> almost done becky, we've got one more notable regional bank earnings

mover to close out, a busy week on that front. regions financial, fell 0.1%, very thin premarket value. they reported profits that missed analysts' estimates due in part to setting more money aside for bad loans in the future potentially net interest margins came in better than most analysts' estimates. big focus, regions did say they fell 2.5% quarter end to quarter end but those levels remain stable and this is key in that march month in the wake of silicon valley's collapse. on the analyst front, shares of at&t are in focus. up about 1% roughly right now, about 120,000 theirs of volume and lost 10% yesterday and appears it fell enough for analysts to upgrade them to a buy from a hold. the target price stays unchanged at 21 and cite among other

things the severely negative reaction to weaker cash flows show a buying opportunity. end with tesla which is up fra fractionally right now premarket, nearly 800,000 shares of volume after falling 10% yesterday post earnings. analysts are downgrades the ev giant from hold to buy and goes down to 154, it was $245 and cited amongst other things tesla's deliberate strategy to lower prices and sacrifice profit margins so those tesla shares trying to bounce back, andrew, back over to you. >> dom, thanks for that. a lot more coming up the snap back of travel demand are the airlines prepared for a su summer surge from planes to trains, csx shares are up beating estimates by a nickel. joe hinrichs willing back on

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>> announcer: now the answer to the trivia question. before steve jobs, who served as ceo of apple the answer -- gil amelio >> the nation's airlines are preparing for a big summer, we heard all about strong demand from united's ceo scott kirby earlier on "squawk box" and alaska airlines ceo yesterday on "the exchange. >> united will be 39% bigger across the atlantic this summer. the rest of the industry, 2% smaller than they were in 2019 21% larger across the pacific. the rest of the industry 7% smaller. almost every global airline retired wide bodied airplanes so the supply is lower in totality than it was in 2019 and demand is a lot higher. that supply and demand will last

for years to come. >> we're seeing strong demand rolling into q2. we were profitable in march. that momentum isn't continuing >> joining us is more is he lane is that a good thing in terms of demand and what they'll be able to turn in turn of profits >> i think so. we think that third and second quarters will be record levels whether they're able to bring that down to the bottom line, i think will be dependent on where fuel costs line up 2.50, 2.80 depending on the day. we should also see pretty good second and third quarter earnings >> okay.

that is something i hadn't really anticipated there's so many things you can think about with the airlines, the most important probably demand, how many consumers will be out there traveling how many business travelers, what they're willing to pay. you think about pilot shortages and think about some of the issues with the faa, but just the idea that it all comes down on the bottom line to fuel costs. that something is volatile and out of their control. >> exactly, well said, becky i couldn't have put it better myself i think you're absolutely right. all of those issues, though, lead to too few seats. we just heard the replay of what scott said the other day about demand being very strong and supply not being there we were not back to 2019 levels in general in terms of capacity and we're not going to get back there. scott talked about other airlines retiring wide body aircraft and you mentioned the

air traffic control situation. the faa asked the airlines or are working with the airlines to reduce capacity out of the new york area by 10%, so think about what that does to the number of seats, reduces that. but on the other hand people want to fly so the airlines have only one choice, to discourage some demand and that's to raise ticket prices so we are looking at -- >> some of these prices -- >> exactly we have to raise prices. that will lead to really strong revenue growth, as well as the ancillary revenues, of course, health, as well, that, you know, we worry about margins for all the reasons, becky, that you cited, and then the same people don't realize about airlines is demand is always good until it's bad and you don't really see it coming that much. >> right. >> because -- and scott mentioned this the other day also to phil and that was that they saw a big decline in

business travel right around the silicon valley bank issues and then rebounded but still not in general back to where we were in 2019 if we were the system would be even taxed than it is. >> so it soulill be a miserable summer td u say for investors? i see you've got mostly market performs or outperforms on these. >> yeah, yeah, so you're going to have to bring your patience to the airport book early, and take the early flights, because then you don't generally run into the pop-up thunderstorms that cause later in the afternoon delays and in terms of stocks, united actually ual happens to be our best idea for 2023 because of their international footprint and the fact that international travel is rebounding the way domestic travel did a year or so ago. a year ago, remember, a lot of

countries still weren't fully opened had you to test to come back to the u.s. and people forget that and also forget that most people book their summer vacations between mid-march and mid-may, so by the time the government lifted testing in mid-june, nobody really -- well, nobody, air quotes around that, but people weren't going to europe and staying domestic now going to europe and asia pacific, southeast asia not so much, china, japan is finally open you're going to see all that strong traffic this summer and in the third quarter and then we'll think about the fourth quarter later in the year, but united because of that international footprint, they'll serve more than 110 destinations this summer so that would be our number one pick followed by delta with its relatively strong balance sheet and free cash flow and then copa which we don't talk a lot about, midcap company

based in panama, really well situated -- we call the hub of the americas, so cpa has 2.5% dividend yield we like that one of the few airlines paying a dividend and that's pretty significant. >> helane, thank you. >> thanks, becky. >> okay, still to come virginia governor glenn youngkin will join us to talk about his upcoming trip to taiwan and south korea and we'll talk to guticlayton for the latest on relang crypto and so much more stay tuned you're watching "squawk. this is cnbc

a leaked u.s. intelligence report says china is building sophisticated cyberweapons to seize control of enemy satellites i don't know if we're enemies, i guess we could be someday the u.s. assesses that klein's push to develop these capabilities to deny, exploit or hijack enemy satellites is a core part of its goal to control

information which beijing considers to be a key war fighting domain. cia marked a document this year previously not reported was one of the dozens shared allegedly by a 21-year-old u.s. air guardsman in the most significant disclosure in more than a decade. all right, virginia governor joins us now, glenn youngkin is heading to asia monday and will be making a stop in taiwan this is part of a trade mission focusing on economic development opportunities for his state. got nothing to do with any national aspirations for sure, governor governor youngkin joins us this morning but does make sense. this is a great business to be in we need to bring it home and virginia is as good a place as any would be your case >> i think virginia is the best place, joe, and this is an opportunity for me to visit with trusted allies in a supply chain

buildup that we need to bring to the united states in semiconductors and automotive supply chains and when i have a chance to meet with business leaders in taiwan and japan and korea, i'm going to put our best foot forward to have that foreign direct investment to come to virginia virginia's role and we have seen a big sea change in our economic growth and added 125,000 jobs since january of last year and seeing a big companies come to virginia and in my business life i never got a deal without going out and getting it and i'll work to make sure this reshoring of supply chains in the most critical industries comes to virginia >> when you're in the area, will things other than trade and commerce be discussed with you, or will that -- anything you talk about, whether it's security, it'll be in light of business or will you talk about what china and taiwan, what the

future holds there >> well, i do believe that the future of taiwan is rested on a strong relationship with the united states, which is grounded in our economic future together, and so this is a way to build even deeper bridges or stronger bridges together and, you know, there is an extraordinary effort to make sure that the next generation of the united states semiconductor industry is one that is shared between taiwan and their great companies and the united states and trusted supply chains in japan and korea and in europe and so there's a chance to really double down on trusted allies on countries that have shared values that believe in democracy, and particularly in these industries that are core to our national security future, this has to be a very, very strong bridge and a relationship that can endure for

years to come. >> how do you view our economic future with the mainland, with china if you're doubling down on our friends and allies, do you think we should cut in half our dependency on china? >> well, i think we're in a rather precarious circumstance right now because in these critical industries that are core to our national security future, we must migrate supply chains to the united states and with trusted suppliers, and, you know, joe, i had a real encounter with ford and an electric vehicle opportunity in virginia, but, you know, the core technology is coming from a chinese communist influenced company, cattle, that has been literally thrust on the world through economic coercion and we just have to stand strong here and so this is why the kinds of relationships that i'm going to continue to build, ones that i had back in my business life that i'm enhancing in my new

role in countries like taiwan and japan and korea are so important. >> governor, you're a republican did you like the c.h.i.p.s. act? is that helping you? will that help virginia bring this business to that state, and if you like the c.h.i.p.s. act, do you like all the clean energy provisions in the inflation reduction act? are you leaning towards an expanded, i don't know, what's a nice way of saying, a government partnership. others would call it a government picking winners and losers for the private sector. >> yeah, well, i feel that there are a few select industries like semiconductors and like pharmaceuticals where we need to make sure that we have federal policies that encourage those industries to reshore back to the united states because we have a national security risk where the core elements of these

sectors have migrated into china. we've got to bring them home i'm so proud of what's been happening in virginia as our own pharmaceutical cluster has grown at a mighty rate so that the active pharmaceutical ingredients are being brought home for some of the most important pharmaceuticals that are produced in the united states we can do this listen, the idea that this is going to expand to all industries is not consistent with free markets and the government should not be picking broad winners and losers but there are a few key sectors that are core to our national security future, energy, of course, our defense industry, semiconductors, our cyberindustry, telecommunications, pharmaceuticals, that we have to be clear, if we do not have an active approach, we're going to watch the chinese dominate them and we'll wake up one day and be really sorry we weren't more forward looking. >> i got a couple articles here. one said you decided your national aspirations will be put on hold.

people say you've had great wins in virginia but not enough electing conservatives or republicans there, not national enough, you've said that you're singularly focused on virginia but then i'm looking at a politico piece why glenn youngkin would be crazy not to run for president the virginia governor offers two things that republicans need, a n nonhostile alternative to trump and a compelling centrist challenge to biden you'd be crazy not to run, politico says, governor. >> i have a great job, and i'm very co-fussed on doing it well. >> i can't -- >> i'm focused on dog it well. >> people hate when i cut people off but when you start down that road, okay, just weigh in quickly. you saw what's happening with governor desantis. you've seen the recent endorsement -- you see how it's going. the way it's going right now, it looks like that manhattan case

is going to vault the former president back into the nomination do you think that's good for the republican party >> joe, there's a long way between now and 2024 and i just want to repeat and i appreciate your apology for interrupting me, but at the end of the day, i think people are interested in what's going on in virginia because virginia is on the move. we took a blue state and we elected a republican governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general and flipped our house and moved forward with common sense conservative policies that have taken virginia from being near the bottom of job recovery to near the top of job recovery. we're seeing companies come to virginia and we're cutting taxes. we we're backing law enforcement and standing up for education excellence and getting politics out of the classroom we're focused on virginia. i am always so appreciative that the nation is very, very much focused on what's happening here, because i think we are a model for what can happen across the country. i'm doing my job as governor

i never got a promotion without doing a great job in the job i had. >> all those great things. there's 49 other states that might benefit from all your great ideas. think of it that way go ahead, andrew >> governor, wanted to weigh in on -- you just mentioned desantis we've been talking about disney all morning and what seems like a food fight that gets -- it's not just a food fight, it's a legal fight that keeps getting worse. where do you think the gop is on this fight i mean, there's a supermajority in the state of florida but maybe more broadly >> well, not speaking for the gop, but let me speak for glenn youngkin i believe that esg has gotten out of control and talked about it the last time we were together the basic tenets of having sound environmental policy, which is good for the environment and good for a company, having diversity of thought in a company and having world class governance is where all this started, and it has migrated to

a place where it is no longer a business interest, it's become a social philosophy and religion and it's got to back up back to where businesses are focused on their broad stakeholder group and i just think this is very clear if businesses migrate outside of their primary purpose, they're going to find that even their customers aren't happy. i mean look at anheuser-busch today. and so this is a moment for us all to reset and get back into the ground of common sense because i think virginians and americans are tired of having to worry about whether they buy product x or product y they just want a good service and product. >> you support governor desantis in his fight against disney? >> well, i thinkthe specifics with each company are really important, and i'm not familiar with the deals that have been arranged between disney and the state of florida and what obligations were promised to one another, but i'll back up and i do think that the world of esg

has gotten well beyond what it was originally intended to be and got to get it back in the box. >> you talk about in politics and getting it out of the classroom. i imagine you want politics out of the boardroom so how do you square those two ideas >> well, again, stakeholders are looking for great products and great services and a company they can trust, and i do believe, again, that politics has moved into, as you said, i agree with you into the boardrooms in an inappropriate way and let's get back to having companies delivering great products, great services so that folks had they go to a theme park or when they buy a beverage aren't worried about what political statement they're making they're actually consuming a product or a service because it's one that they want. >> governor, true or false, there's a zero percent chance of you running for president in 2024 >> joe, i think that true and false questions are a fool's

errand >> i'll say it a different way. >> let me just say, what you can count on, let me tell you what you can count on is that i am 100% focused on virginia's -- >> okay. >> -- general assembly races in 2023 we have to hold our house and i think we can flip our senate and i believe it's a big statement that america should watch, because we were a blue state we were a state heading in the wrong direction and this was republicans and democrats and independents coming together and saying, no, we want to go in a different direction and these are our midterms in order to really stand up and say, we like where we're going. i think we're doing a good job and looking forward to taking it to the voters. >> all right i don't know how -- we've asked, and i think i can read between the lines. we'll see what happens, obviously. the fed is data dependent too, governor, but we always love having you on and we'll check back with you, what, 18 months away or you're not counting.

you're thinking about virginia >> joe, i've got a really busy 2023 in front of me. >> there you go. governor, as i say, please come on you're welcome whenever you want so we appreciate it. thanks >> thanks, have a great day. >> you too when we come back, former s.e.c. chair jay clayton on crypto regulations "squawk box" will be back after a quick break. as sleek as it . as smart as it is beautiful. introducing lucid air. experience the best. ♪ ♪ ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ partnering to unlock new ideas,

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welcome back to "squawk. we have a special guest to talk china, crypto and so much more and jay clayton and senior policy adviser among the jay clayton portfolio. we're going and the hoop with a couple of portfolio issues i'm curious about what was said about china and where you think we are in this one >> i want to make a quick observation, which is i don't know if i've soon anyone make the transition from business to politics more smoothly >> you mean youngkin >> yeah. >> you think he's running for president? >> i think it's great in america when a lot of people run for president. i hope people like youngkin throws his hat in the ring

he has a different perspective you have him on the show, he talks about china. he clearly has what i think is a great perspective on the co-dependency which we have with china, which is something new for america. think about apple. over 7% of the s&p 500, i think apple has, what, around 20% of their sales in china, 60 -- 50, 60% of their production. so our largest global company has that with china? a guy like glen youngkin, he understands that >> how come neither side of the political spectrum is on board with that. there's some noises that the president is making right now about ramping things up. there's been a lot of vitriol from both sides.

>> one thing about politics is most people look backwards because backwards is how we got elected. where we are with china is so new for us if we had a kinetic or economic dislocation with china, it would be very significant for day-to-day mainstream. i don't think people understand it how we got ourselves into it, we can talk about how we're going to get ourselves out of it, that is the main thing. we need to diversify in order to not be so co-dependence. >> everyone's been saying that the question is how do you d it right now if you're a business, is there a greater danger if you're doing business in china danger comes from china or come from america >> a mistake, right? we're each co-dependent on each other. >> no, i'm saying that the politics are such that it used to be that people would say,

okay, i'm going to do business in china and the worry was the chinese were going to take your i.p. or throw you out of the country or that something was going to happen. today the worry is just as much that the u.s. government is going to say, you know what, given the sort of cold war that we have, that's where this is all going, you got to get out of there or we don't want you doing this or we don't want you doing that think about all the private equity investors who are invested -- kkr, general atlantic, sequoia. we sit around screaming about tiktok as though it's some sort of national security problem but gets whose money itis. it's american money. there will be a day where if we

go down this road with tiktok, we're going to say to everybody else, get out of the pool. >> it may be happening in the next couple of wee, we should a that we financed china's growth. we thought we'd bring democracy to china so we are deeply embedded in china nap means any kind of sharp pullback is going to have significant economic consequences what that doesn't mean is that we should just go on about business tomorrow like we did yesterday and that's where the pivot has to come. by a sharp dislocation between the u.s. and china is also not good for china if you're in china and you're sitting there saying if we have a sharp dislocation, what does that mean for us not so good either the easiest way to solve a problem is recognize a problem that you have. >> let me ask an sec question.

do you think the sec has failed and you can say this is during this administration, previous administration, you were there before, after in term of how we have regulated chinese companies doing business here on our exchanges? >> the answer is i do. i do and let me tell you why. because we tell american investors that if a company is listed on the u.s. exchange that the financial statements are something you can rely on with a degree of rigor that exists nowhere else in the world. for a long time that was not true of chinese companies listed in the u.s >> it still is probably not true >> up have van holland and kennedy on they passed a bill that says we need to make that true >> it's not there yet. >> it's no the there yet and it's not moving as fast as it should have. we gave the chinese three years it come into compliance with the regulations.

they did not that's my view we gave them another period of time we can debate on what it is, but whatever it is it's been too long >> you believe that has to come from congress -- >> it came from congress >> can't the sec do something m. >> can't the sec say we're doing it >> the sec said they've been compliant enough where we're going to give them more time i think that you're getting there, you're getting there but they really haven't has gone on too long. >> i got another one for you, your favorite guy, elon musk, who you brought a case against >> the commission brought a case against. >> but you were leading the commission >> yup >> let's say you brought the case against him news just out in the past 24 hurst that he sold shares in the company before the end of q4, not on a plan and then they

myselfed what does the sec think about? >> i am sure that any time an insider, which is a great thing, we all know in and so you able to ask me this question and see all the facts around and it will be flagged for some reason they have a tips, complaint and referrals. they will look into it and see what happened. >> are you a fan, planned sale programs should make it harder for inside training to take place >> gary and i did not agree on of on 10b 51, and p so a

californiaing poured before the so that's just good hygiene. >> and then finally, crypto. why is there not some actual rules and regulations and some bright linewhat we're doing. are woe ever going to get there or are we going to cope punting the ball >> europe said we're going to rye toing if out wore right now what we've decided do is keep it out of the traditional financial system that's clearly the policy and

work it out in the courts. the courts are not an efficient place to resolve classification issues around securities commodities and the like >> and therefore -- >> therefore right now we're not in a spot where what i would say is the technology is going to come into the traditional financial system in any kind of smooth way i think french hill, you had him on the other day, he is trying to push forward with this. i do agree with gary that securities coughs a very wide swath. >> is the theerium a security? he got in big trouble not answering that >> can i take 30 seconds >> yeah. >> things can go from being a security to not a security a play say we all want to put on a production here on broadway. we go to people and say give us a thousand dollars, we'll give

you a hundred tickets. the play may not come to market for a couple of years. at that point those hundred tickets are definitely securities people are taking those ticket and be say you played -- >> so right these things are securities >> they are but they can change to not be. so on ethey are, i don't know all of the facts but it has many more hallmarks of just being a ticket than it does being a means to raise money >> i think jay clayton and taylor swift, maybe they can run the fdic together. >> jay clayton, thank you. >> you are watching "squawk

box. take a look at the futures we have a lot going on on this friday morning the s&p 500 off about 8 1/2 points. >> now let's get back to the broader markets. we never really leave them with a little under 90 minutes to go before the opening bell on wall street mike santoli joins us. >> it's been a couple week where the s&p 500 has more or less been digesting the earnings releases but also the moves we got off the march lows this is a two-year high. that 1% were also sitting 4150 on the s&p is the mid point of the entire peak to trough of the last year. it's indecisive. i think we're looking a the how fast might be we be sliding

toward an economic con traction. i think one of the reasons the market is in this mode right now it seems it could be normal pullback sill we have an expir as -- the u.s. dollar index has been an interesting look, massive ramp based on chick growth and higher inflation and the fed's rapid tightening the tightening started right about there and we surged up about the middle of last year nupd it kind of an interesting spot here. 101 has basically been the floor for the last year or so. we're seeing the fed fet so it seems like that's part of the story as well. take a lock at the con soumer safety trade p & g reporting along with wall

harr so that makes sense we were talking about consumers maybe being ale will moe stlap and also basically at an apple-type multiple, which has also served as a bit of a safety trade lately >> very good i've been trying to figure out kind of a -- i don't know, directionless this week on the s&p. we get a lot more data points. does it matter that bitcoin's been weak for about three, four days. >> it went up before the s&p now it going down from that it rhymes, it's a little bit less

aggressive movement of cash. i don't know if it's a leading indicator but definitely reflects sometimes like a tranquil quist that throws its voice. >> m und m, trying to make orange go with anything. >> can you say moronge there's more morons, is that bad >> it's not the nicest thing to say. >> well, i know it's not the nicest thing to say but it is an ep snet. >> can i stop you from saying it

since you've already said it four times joining us is oxana arnoff from jpmorgan asset management that is not something anybody wants to hear, this idea of stag flatio, tries to rhyme their it's a much more nuanced discussion than the reductive narrative dominating today, which is that we're heading for a lowdown and depend on who you'relessening to, a severe or mild one but the fed is going to have hundreds of points and that ignores the fact that inflation is still uncomfortably high, not

just here in the u.s. but also krs the pond, europe is still running very, very high inflation levels and the u.k. is at 10.3%, frankly, for them. inflation remains when so i think yes be we and i think investors have to contend with it >> is that your most likely base cases or is that something there is a are that can with there stnd as opposed to just resort to old ways, which is we're

going back to zero that seems to be the preferred outcome and today it's really hard to point to any data point and say this and has been on a weaker trend for eight months, but the unmr. and it's going to be a lot more difficult to go from 5% to 25 than it what the fed funds rate is going it remain meaningfully above zero and that means what does that world really feel like we haven't lived in that world for so long. government and corporate balance sheets will have to adjust to the reality of hyper for longer. >> how are you telling people to adjust their portfolios? i nod p know today holding

equit is this sfm and there was an opportunity to pick mum so therefore f that we are going to go through as the effect of this fed hiking the policy will take root we're closer to the end than we are to the beginning but we're just at the very start of what that means, what the effects of that will have on the economy and on markets and investors should improve here pushing this many into essentially cash

yields are had and why would we hope pore hundreds of basis points to fall m frankly, irrespective whether it's because inflation is more resilient or it's dislocating because there is a recession but. coming up, the few between "squawk box" will be right back

dow component, procter & gamble is out with third quarter results earlier. the company beating analyst profits and revenue estimates and raised its full-year organic sales forecast and the ceo joined us last hour.

who okay naj. >> last quarter it was minus 6, this quarter it's minus 3. and we have categories and countries that are beginning it and procter & gamble is up more than 6% in the last month. it fell to start the year along with the dow industrials but has gained back all those louses and is no in 2023. >> new morning, bloom brg reporting a group of tesla investors accused the company of mismanagement and are seeking a meeting with the board they hold interest of and among

the suggest sewers wore, when he took off twitter, what are the many and i think this is an example of one of the head winds and move are f and a move that would prestlenlt from being able to report extra amounts of capital to regulators. this is according to "the wall street journal" and weeks after the collapse of the silicon valley bank. they reversed a loosening rules to help the mid size paepgs accounting rules that don't force you to go ahead and say that f and ron desantis' feud

with disney. well speak to an orland uck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. >> do you think the company is

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welcome back to "squawk box. a new chapter in the feud between governor ron desantis and disney the company trying to step up efforts to influence saying state lawmakers are working to cancel disney's attempt of the area where the orlando park is located. >> we're not going to treat them any differently than we do other theme parks in orlando,

universal or sea world or any other business in florida. they've gotten so used to playing by their own rules, their actions to basically divest and move assets out and tie up things to evade any kind of government oversight was shady and in bad faith and so we're going to correct it. all we're saying is you guys have to apli the same rules as anyone else. you can't live by your same rules anymore. >> joining us this morning, anna, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> what do you think happens next >> i think governor desantis and republicans just need to let it go we need to move on and tackle important issues like the flooding of fort lauderdale, the housing crisis and affordability crisis i cannot believe i'm here in tallahassee weend are still stretching out this disney versus desantis drama.

>> the movie "frozen" is pretty good and the let it go line, i give you credit. i think that's elsa, right i think the bigger question right now is you have a supermajority in florida on the gop side i'm imagining whatever desantis says he's going to get, unless you think there is something else happening >> this has become part of the government' personal identity and even his presidential candidate. clearly republicans in the legislature are going to try to appease him. the fact that we can't get anyone to speak to us today, my

colleagues are not proud of us >> your republican colleagues? >> my republican colleagues feel this way in my state affairs committee, we had a last-minute amendment attached to another bill and the sponsor couldn't even answer questions about it we're in this situation where the governor is interjecting his agenda to attack disney into other bills that are not related to this subject matter and basically pulling the entire process down for his own political motivations. i think what's so ironic is my republican colleagues want to talk about corporate accountability we have bills to do that of year i push for combined reporting to close oversight loopholes. this is a punitive measure -- >> what do you think about the underlying issue i don't know if that's a fair way to go. i think there's a lot of people

who sort of at 30,000 feet would say the underlying issue of advantaging one company over another, maybe you don't like that actually but the way this has all been handled you might not like >> right great question i have never taken a penny from walt disney world or any of their subsidiaries or the theme parks. i do care about corporate accountability and i care about our workers answered have the policies for us to do that ironically congress and matt gates has agreed that policies like combined reporting, closing loopholes so big companies like disney can't hide their subsidiaries this is about walt disney world expressing their right to defend

lgbtq floridians and that made governor desantis so mad, this is what he's done. we should lock at what is the best for our constituents? every is so afraid of governor desantis i think there is a concern if you question desantis, he will veto your bills and find somebody to primary you in your next election where does this all go meaning i don't know what the next permeation of all of this

is does this end? how does this end? >> may 5th is the signing for us at the capitol i do think what disney has drop under the contractual agreements they've made are illegal and it unconstitutional to nullify -- >> what would happen if bob iger and dismi were to sue the governor and the state of florida given who was sitting on the benches in florida >> well, if that was the case, i'd have to think disney has better lawyers than the state of florida. >> but if you believe that the judges have been appointed by either desantis or others and might be politically motivated, how would it end >> well, that's a great question the constitution speaks for itself you know, we have clauses in the u.s. constitution and in the state constitution and you can't nullify contractual agreements soregardless of judges that ar

politically appointed, if there are going to be strict originalists in reading the constitution, it's pretty clear you can't nullify constitutional rights like a contract >> i want to thank up for the conversation it is a fascinating issue obviously in florida but has become a national one. we appreciate you joining us >> thank you for having me there when we come back, the biden administration is said to be getting closer to new curbs on u.s. invesments in china. we'll talk about what that can mean for american companies. >> and check out shares of israel operator csx, beating expectations for the first quarter with higher shipment rate sock up ouabt 3.2% we'll be right back.

welcome back to "squawk box. take a look at the futures right now. now up about 12 points, nasdaq off 30 points, s&p opening down a little over a point. interesting news this morning. black rock showing a sale of nearly 36,000 black rock shares on tuesday of this week. that's about 7% of his holdings in the company total value of the sale nearly $25 million. still looks like he holds more

shares than anybody else on the board or company but nonetheless, not part of a planned sale >> i'm surprised that's 7% >> that represents 7% -- >> of his holdings so you multiply that by however much sp

much that's dwwhy the dow's up 17% i guess. >> in carl acahn's april cuesing illumina in destroying $50 billion in capital we talked to desouza about this. icahn is accusing of board of ignoring and obfuscating we have reached out for common and will update if and when we get a response >> senators are pushing for the u.s. minute to obfuscate the metal in coins it comes days of a a report from the mint that said last year soaring raw metal costs raised the cost of making a nickel past cents. in a memo he said only the u.s. could lose money making money. >> and janet yellen said she wants fair economic ties with china but what would that look luke given the animosity between

the two nations. that is coming up when "squawk box" returns ♪ ♪ the vehicles are all-electric. the feeling is all mercedes. the choice is all yours. see your dealer for exceptional offers today.

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gamble which beat earnings and revenue expectations raising its full year sales forecast the stock up a little more than 2.5% this morning. >> tesla, which isn't moving all that much right now wiped out billions on elon musk's net worth when a rocket of his exploded this morning. and at&t, which is coming off a 10% drop of its own following earnings yesterday of the stock's worst day since the year 2000. as i said yesterday when that news came out, this is a company that is an ongoing -- just a troubled company there's nothing more to say about it i think we have to admit as iconic as at&t may very well be, it happens of time >> what business would you be in right now? i mean, they final lip teep sided to foc-- finally decided

focus on what is not a very sexy business if you do 5g and do everything they try to do, mobile, and not have the distractions of all those media assets, we'll see down the road whether they can be successful or not verizon has done a little better but hasn't helped that much. >> but look at t-mobile. t-mobile has eaten these people's lunch, at&t and verizon. >> what's the market cap of t-mobile at this point >> oh my goodness, let's go it up on the screen this is one of the great success stories of the last decade we've been talking about at&t. >> what's the market capital >> i'm going to get you it right now. >> so 177 versus 126 >> that's amazing.

>> they didn't have to extricate from all those directtv, it never made any sense unless you were planning on building a media conglomerate >> that's what i'm saying. if you go back and look -- >> you can go back to robert allen. michael armstrong. >> then you got into -- >> what was michael armstrong? >> then you had the warner deal. whitaker it's a never-ending list of problems >> at this point at&t is tied with them? 12 billion higher than ibm you seem to have a particular burr up your nose about at&t i didn't want to say ass, but more than a lot of companies that have a similar -- >> i don't think we talk about

the actual problems of that company as much as shareholders and investors often feel >> we can come up with probably ten more, too. there's how many -- can we go to ge >> we talk about them. >> we haven't recently we can go to other ones, too at&t is kind of like ge. you think of like dell and everything else. but you can go all the way back to a break were you. for years they didn't seem to get the right fee. what randle is trying to do, i understood it. >> i got it. >> and some would say some of the rectory hurdles that didn't have to be there ruined the deal before it was able to be done, right? remember >> by the way, if you remember, he tried to buy -- didn't at&t try and by sprint?

originally, which was the other side of the t-mobile deal. have i lost my mind? >> and then they had to compete with mci and they were good at what they did. now we know how they were so good guy ended up cell block a. >> president biden is planning to sign an executive order in the near future that will limit american investment. just yesterday janet yellen said the u.s. wants healthy competition with china and the u.s. actions are not to gain a financial advantage. joining us is robert spaulding, he served at the pentagon and now the ceo of the tech security form semper. first of all, just the idea that we are in a pretty cop ten shus relationship we've had a lot of business people who have come on just in

the last couple of days here who have made the point that we really have a lot in economic -- a lot of riding on this relationship working, both us and china. what do you say to those who raise concerns about the economic problems we're trying it decouple at this point? >> well, janet yellen said we're decoupling without saying we decoupling we still have the tariffs, we have the chips act in march, wind terminals went down and no roo spops from china about why. and just yesterday the bureau of industry and security signed a company for selling hard drives. so this decoupling is happening and i think yell i don't know

which is if china invades taiwan, which it looks like they're getting prepared to do, we're going to see an economic cut so it better to get ready for it now rather than have it imposed on us like what happened with russia's invasion of ukraine. >> there's a report suggesting in the next couple of weeks we're going to see an executive order coming from the biden administration that would prohibit americans investing in a lot of theors of the chinese economy. would it encompass places like any sort of potential security risk >> i don't know has what's called civil/military fusion, which means all of their kplergs businesses are wall strot invests other people's money if this money is trapped by some sort of decouplings that forceth

upon us, getting ahead of it not on helps the multiand national security but helps investors whose money might be trapped there. >> you are just kind of issue be a buyer beware to investors at this point >> i absolutely am you can see the writing on the wall no matter how much we don't want this decoupling to happen, it wasn't actually initiated by the united states. it started all the way back when they negotiate the trade agreement and xi jinping tore it up they are been and including calling bankers in last april to discuss who sanctions were levied on russia the china has been preparing and

b.i.s. rules and now investment rules. so it's coming but we don't want it acknowledge it i think. >> i'd ask from your perspective from a testify fence said, are these things necessary >> as an american, i think what are the things we dough fepd the electronic manufacturing, how is that going to impact our economy? we're not preparing for some event tooul too to get our economy prepared for the impact of something that's happened that's more dra being than this. >> the supply, you're talking about not something that can be fixed in a matter of months. we're talking about years to get

to a point when we're not reliant on it. >> you're right but why would we wait if if this cut could happen at any time, why wouldn't we use defense production act to incentivize the resuring of sm of those things >> saying you can't invest in stocks, can't invest in companies -- is that the washington, d.c. is kind of working piecemeal through all these efforts. if you looked back during the cold war, some of. that eventually decoupled the west from the soviet union so it happening now. i think from the business

community, getting prepared for that, preparing i don't are inrestors are this. >> okay. robert, i want to thank you for your time. >> thank you >> meantime, tesla hiking prices on the model s just days of a plaid version of snsthe stock trading now around $164 a share. but kathy wood just updated her price target saying the shares could reach $2,000 by 2027 >> jom the dow is on pace to snap a four-week winning streak. we'll talk about that.

we'll talk about that. the s&p and nasdaq are on dk did you ever stress about us having three kids? and follow us any time we'll be right back. three kids?! this was never part of the plan! these kids order the lobster mac 'n cheese! what if she wants to play golf? we're going to have to outlaw golf. absolutely no golf in this house! not under my roof! since we started working with empower, all of our financial questions have been answered, so we don't have to worry. so you never- nope. always part of the plan. join 17 million people and take control of your financial future to empower what's next. start today at empower.com

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want to get down to the new york stock exchange and cramer joins us now p & g, my friend, what does it

say more broadly >> it says when you have a great brand, you can raise prices with impunity in this country my favorite line was his line about gillette where they had a good fall. you can put money behind your brands and people still buy their president clinton. that was mueller's absolute best he just gave it to you point blanc about how they did incredible gangs of these brands you didn't think could stand the test of time i thought it was just a fantastic interview. >> is your sense, though, that there are other companies we're going to see earnings from that are going to have similar situations or others that are really just not? >> i think a lot of them can you think kellogg can but i think you need to have a lot of -- you have to be able to put

money behind a brand and productor is putting money behind their brand i love that. i wonder why colgate doesn't have to do something it just seems so sedentary i love great quarter, and they got raw costs coming down it's their time, and people -- this was at 1:36, like a month ago, because people didn't believe in procter those people were wrong. >> how do you feel about losing your blue check, jim >> jim lost his? >> whatever he says. whatever >> i thought you'd have yours still. i just thought that. >> i paid. i don't know >> you paid? you're paying? >> yeah, i paid. >> you don't need someone -- you don't need someone giving stock picks out under your -- i don't know what someone's going to do with me. i wouldn't want to be jim cramer >> he's starting to be like tom in "succession," frankly he's there to serve.

he's there to serve. >> perfectly cast. >> what do you think about tesla shares you saw cathie wood, $2,000. >> i'm at dollar tree with this guy now. they take the balloons up for the holidays, using surge pricing. what is this it's like uber meets dollar tree, and we come up with tesla. i don't know my head's spinning if i bought it yesterday, do i feel like i'm a genius look, he's got to calm down. we love the guy, but he's got to calm down. >> jim cramer, see you in a couple minutes >> for me to say that is, i think, telling >> yep that it is >> everyone have a great weekend. i love p&g love it. >> see you later, mr. blue check. >> yeah. >> i didn't realize he paid. he paid. >> oh, yeah. >> he needs it, though i think maybe you do i don't know you don't need people pretending to be you. it's a look. >> that's the thing. is it a look or not a look to pay or not to pay

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we had a flood of earnings is this week, and it is not over yet. you've got big tech set to ramp up next week with earnings we'll also be getting names from coca-cola, 3m, mcdonald's and many more. alphabet, microsoft, meta, and amazon, all on deck to report next week. just over a half an hour until the final opening bell of the week let's not get too extreme here let's bring in diana, chief investment officer of invest net pmc. you want to talk fed, diana? what was your favorite speech yesterday? there were six of them they were all on the same page, reportedly >> i don't know that i have favorites on this stuff, but you know, the question coming to me around, do we think the fed will raise rates, i don't think there's any doubt the fed will

raise rates. i think the concern is now how quickly will we pivot? expectations that the market has about a pivot later in the year, i think, might be a little premature, so another raise this may and then maybe they hold steady for a while, but i don't see a pivot coming any time soon >> just for argument's sake, if it's always kind of a rear view mirror, kind of data that the fed uses, so they were wrong on transitory they stayed at the party way too long is there any reason to think that maybe it's the same situation here and that there's a lag to all these things, that credit contracts and what the fed's already done do they take that into account do you think it's the right move to keep hiking >> i think it's debatable, for sure being that i'm in the markets, i think a pause would have been okay with me i think, to your point, these things take effect after the

lag, and we're starting to see cracks in the labor market i think the labor market is still strong enough that they're not reacting to that, but we know we're going to see that coming i think that we're headed toward recession. i don't know many prognosticators at this point who don't think we're headed toward a recession we have the debt ceiling kind of moving on us so, i think a pause will be fine i'm not sure the 25 basis oppopoints makes a huge difference. they're thinking one more hike and we're a little above okay but i do think that we are looking at rough times ahead in the market as a result when you think about what's going on in the market so far this year, it's about ten stocks driving the bulk of the returns that we're seeing, tech, communications, the big names. if we keep hiking rates and reprice back discount rates on those companies, we'll see what happens in earnings next week, but you can see trouble brewing. >> you've always been big on value stocks, so i'm just trying

to figure out whether this is a good time or bad time for that i mean, after 2022, there should be a lot of values, but with interest rates going up, you got multiples contracting, earnings going down, so is it a good time after a horrible year? are there values >> yeah, look, i'm a very long-term proeponent of value because the academic evidence suggests over the long haul, if you're an investor in the equity markets, you should be in it for a good five to ten years they do suggest that that's the house bet. the casino wins, and the house bet is value and paying attention to price will win. i do think, in the short run, there's obviously, because of the banking crisis, are we quite past that? unclear. and i think tech has become synonymous with defensive for a lot of people, just because these big names, and they dominate these indexes so, i think you -- it's not maybe for the faint of heart at the moment, but i do think we are rotating back to fundamentals, you know, there's the cost to money now, and the

research that we know exists and decades and decades of research that tell us that price matters suggests that value over the long haul is going to be the place to be. >> all right, we're going to end it there big week next week, i guess, diana, for all of us in terms of tech earnings. so, we'll be watching closely. very good to have you on this morning. i'm going to -- i don't know is there any value i would think there's value after that >> there's value >> after that horrible year. let's get a final look, see if we can see any value in the markets. we are now at some of the best bevels t levels that we've seen, 45 points procter & gamble is up four points, so you can do the math to see how that is affecting the dow, specifically. yep. it's about four points the nasdaq is still trading a bit lower. let's look at yields there's procter & gamble, up almost four. let's look at yields and oil and

the dollar as well the ten-year at 3.52%. two-year at over 4%. check out the dollar, which surprisingly still really affecting the multinationals, 4x headwinds, and there was energy, and there's the currencies happy friday make sure you join us next week, because we'll be here. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange pretty steady premarket coming off the s&p's worst day in several weeks. plenty to work with today from p&g's quarter to some decent flash pmis in europe, an 11-month high on their composite and we'll get our own this hour as well. road map begins with rate expectations a slew of fed speak crossing the tape, pointing to another hike in may, but a pause may be now in view. plus, ford's ceo saying that