>> we're going to have another busy week next week. something like 45% of the s&p earnings, including some of the biggest names. we also have pce, fed's preferred measure of inflation gdp as well. >> i think the hyperscaled cloud names, microsoft, amazon, going to be important. >> that's going to do it for us. >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," buckle up earning season set to kick into high gear. plus, mcd's record breaking run, the burger giant hitting new hoyings today. is there still time to get in on the fast food trade? laider, charlie kessel's no good awful week the number getting shareholders revved up about the job elon musk is doing at ceo i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, bonawyn eison, courtney garcia, and jeff

mills we start off with the market's monster week ahead. tech heavyweights including alphabet and meta platforms and amazon report early on this earns season has been a mixed back earnings performance is down almost 5% but revenue is up 2% the numbers capturing a bulk of the banks which have been the epicenter of anxiety overall stocks, the major averages lower for the week, but the losses were marginal, just under a percent across the board. volatility is around late 2021 lows is next week's real test with the tech front and center, is that going to be something that derail us? bonawyn, what do you think >> i'm not sure it's going derail us, but it will let us know, those top ten names will be the largest contributors in terms of keeping us buoyed forward. doesn't work for me. color me a bear, but i'm persistent if nothing else i think what you're seeing is those names, it's more of a

perceived flight to quality than it is people wanting to invest in growth, which have traditionally been why those names outperformed i'm curious the backdrop, and curious to see how margins have performed over the last quarter, and how they guide going forward. >> yeah, which ones are you focused on, karen? >> i'm focused on microsoft, alphabet, meta, amazon a lot of different things there. we'll see what alphabet -- we'll see the advertising business, right? that's sort of their meat and potatoes but that's a good sense of what's happening in the economy. there's that we got microsoft cloud all three of them -- microsoft, alphabet, and amazon those are going to be really important cloud numbers. we know there's chat gpt valuation in there, but i have no idea what to make of it, what the opportunity is, how to monetize it, anything like that, so i like getting the data on the stuff that i understand well and then expenses, you know, meta's obviously been leading the way on expenses, and

amazon -- i'm sorry, alphabet has some catching up to do on that front. >> yeah. what stood out to me in the past couple weeks, the ceo of amazon did an interview, and in that interview he talked about really working with customers when it comes to their cloud services, working with them, keeping them on board, and to me i sort of read between the lines -- maybe this is deep into the license. but ied a that as price cuts i read that as maybe margins will be you should pressure, maybe there's more competition coming from the other cloud players when it comes to keeping customers. >> i don't think you're the only one thinking that, especially when it comes to amazon and microsoft, cloud is going to be under the microscope, and it is expected to be weakening especially compared to the last quarters here. these companies are especially important because there's such a large wading in the s&p 500. a lot of people have s&p 500 in your 401(k), you don't realize how exposed you are to these companies. important to know that how well they've done this year, sit a high bar.

>> jeff, i think bonawyn made an interesting point in term of the flight to perceived safety with these names. we're going to peel back the curtain next week. if things are all right, this could be off to the races. >> yeah, it could be, but i agree with bonawyn in the sense that you've had investors huddle in this narrow corner of the market i have been pretty vocal in the sense that i think grow stocks are going to do better than people may think i think we might be in for a bit of a pause here. even a stock i like, meta for example, you've seen that multiple go up quite a bit since the beginning of the year. you have had tech support the market, and i wonder how good earnings need to be to keep that rolling. so i'll give you a statistic just relative to market leadership, because i think it paints the picture really nicely 71% of s&p 500 industry groups are actually down since february 2nd. so just to give you an idea of how narrow this market has become and how important tech is

and the continuation of tech to the overall index moving high earthquakeis that important. maybe one last thing relative to growth and technology overall, we've got pmi data today, and generally it was good. we'll take that as face value. i think good news is good news however, if you look at the priced paid component of that pmi data within manufacturing and services, that rose. so we're in for another hike in may, and obviously tech has been moving on interest rates moving lower. at least that's been part of it, so any move higher than relative to what the market expects for interest rates could be a head wind for growth stocks as well. >> it will be interesting to see what and how tech companies guide on the back half of the year karen, how long they'll handle that >> if i were they, you would guide conservatively, right? i think we'll see that, unless the numbers don't allow them to, right? if they're really good, then the bar gets raised, but i'm

actually a little more optimistic despite -- my least favorite thing is this 20% run the qqqs have had that's a high bar to run into. but i think the economy is better than feared we'll see good earnings. >> that's what we heard from the banks. anxiety we heard in the past month, courtney, everything -- not everything for the most part things already with the banks we heard about the strength of the consumer and that things for right now are all right. >> i would agree with that i think the economy continues to be on better footing than a lot of people are giving this the credibility for. but what also i don't think has changed, we're still on good footing. markets, the economy hasn't gone down, but also we're still in a higher rate environment. hopefully the fed pauses here, but that's probably not going to change in the near term either this big flight to growth stocks and this rush to risky assets, i think it's going to continue to

remain under pressure as rates remain higher. i don't think either of those scenarios change even if we're in a good economy, we're in a high rate economy. >> curious, bonawyn, how are you position going into this earnings season with big tech holdings >> i'm always going to be invested never going to pull everything out on the table i have more of a barbell approach, and have been pursuing more liquid as its because to me that's where valuations have taken the largest chunk. when i look at -- returns, i think that's where the most alpha may be generated i still am somewhat bullish tech, only because when you look at the market multiple, and we're back to 18%, 18.5% if there is going to be multiple expansion, i'm most comfortable with it coming in that pocket rather than overpaying for a dividend yield for example as wave seen before with some of the value trade when treasuries are now giving you risk free at -- well, we'll see, but

perceived risk free assets giving you the yields. i still want to be in the largest names, and the trauth of the mather is i think those may be overstretched at this point in time. that's why i want to be deploying the incremental dollar after capital. >> jeff, how about you you can be skeptical of a tech rally and how far it's come in recent months, but you got to be in tech to be invested in the market that's basically what it comes down to. >> yeah, honestly bonawyn said it perfectly, and that's precisely how we have been positioning the last six months plus, and it's been reducing exposure to cyclicals, really. it's been taking down value, take down midcap, taking down small cap in favor of large cap growth some although i'm saying i'm a little skeptical here going into the earnings, the stocks have run, you might see a pullback, in terms of how you want to be positioned now to the

end of the year, i do think there's relative safety at least in the earnings as we move to the back half of this year and the economy begins to slow and you see banks and other cyclicals continue to perform. >> let's get to tesla's tumble now new concerns from investors musk is stretched too thin, not pay enough attention to the automaker. can the stock find its footing let's bring in the charlotte master, carter worth of worth charting here at the nasdaq. >> well, it was a bit of a tumble, and reciprocal and equal action from the prior quarter, the gap up on the 26th of january, euphoria, and this is the exact opposite all i can think of is kind of what's the point of buying into tesla when you've just had a setback like this? you know that for the past two months people have been purchasing the stock between 180 and 210, and now you're sitting here at 165. let's say it never goes lower.

it's just so kdifficult to go higher you've got money that's trapped from bets that have been made. recently committed capital, and it's immediately wrong we've all been in that situation. first loss, best loss, you want to get out the downside risk is to that 146 gap from the january. >> 146 i know that you are an avid watcher of the show in general, so i'm wondering what you think of dan nathan's price target, which is 40 something bucks a share. >> is it >> 60. >> 60 something, 65, 69. >> the pass is 60, passes through 69 that's tomorrow's lunch. >> is that another support, lower than 140 >> look, anything's possible here's what i found is that when -- over the years, decades of publishing notes -- when you have something that's so outsized that you lose the audience not to say that dan's always different than mine, but when i put out a note, a hedge fund

manager, pension plan, like, come on. you think it's going to triple from here? i try to have price targets that are typically where the imagination can allow. the imagination, maybe it's 60. >> when you talk about given what's happened, is that purely what's happened to the stock price as opposed to margins or cost cutting on cars it's just purely technicals of the stock? >> this sell-off, right, is the equinox of what happened over the proceeding two years so you have a stock no one believes in and analysts' price targets -- then of course the stock turns down, and now analysts are lowering the price. it's the opposite of what happened a great unknown that's now known. the highest multiples, you know this as a manager, are always assigned before you start to put up earnings. once you put up earnings then you can do -- once you start to actually make the cars, produce the earnings, have real margins,

the things you're talking about, then you can't have dreams anymore. you got to get real. >> so poetic >> it is quote worthy. >> jeff, i'm curious what your take is on the quarter there seems to be a real narrative change with this most recent earnings. they're basically saying we're willing to fiddle around with price to boost sales we will do anything to price look at pricing every week there are very few companies out there, particularly of big ticket items that say, we're going to look at pricing every single week and decide on that week what we're going to do with it. >> maybe i'm wrong, but i thought i read something today that they tweaked a couple models higher today after the move lower so it's kind of all over the place. it's hard to project what the margin profile is going to look like, and i think that's part of what investors are struggling with right now in terms of the stock. i asked myself -- and obviously it's not an apples to apples comparison, but what are other car companies doing right now?

they're all at the lows and trading at seven times ford, and tesla's trading at 40 time shouldn't be trading at the same valuation, to be clear, but i think that's an apt comparison in term of where the stock could go i have been looking at similar levels from the upside at 206 to the downside at 155. i think it goes below 155, all bets are off holds there, could drift to the top end of the range but i think there's more risk to the downside given dynamics you're describing relative to prices and demand and margins. >> how do the other automakers look on the charts >> just as described that's not the case with mercedes-benz and bmw -- acting very well. >> carter, thank you we'll see you later on "options action." coming up, oversized moves and big pharma stocks can your money get healthy stocking up on these names? first, investors loving the rally on mcdonald's. will the supersize gains continue stick around more "fast money" in two

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brands what can investors suspect and what kind of read will it give us on the consumer kate rogers joins us with the details. >> reporter: you said it, consumers spending in the face of inflation as well as pricing power and any trade down from high cost chains to those lower down mcdonald's, stock flies higher and higher analysts seem confident in its ability to continue to perform into a downturn. oppenheimer recently calling it battle tested for its performance in recent recessions chipotle is another name that held a lot of pricing power. that continues last quarter was weaker than expected for the burrito chain, but not due to pricing chipotle up 5% this month and 30% this year. domino's has done well in prior turndowns. it's dealing with a driver

shortage stock down 60% on the year and finally, bloomin' brands will give us a look -- melissa, back over to you. >> kate, chipotle has been a brand that's been successfully raising prices, but did it reach the end of that ability? it's hit the point of elasticity >> i don't know that was the issue last quarter it was the limited time offers that didn't perform as well as they had planned, and really the pricing power has stuck with the brand. it has a loyal consumer base has it hit the top we're going to hear that this quarter if consumers are pulling back or not willing to spend as much as they had been in prior quarters i know that wasn't specifically the problem last quarter. >> kate, thanks. kate rogers. let's trade this one think about the input costs, food prices continued to go higher, energy prices abated a bit. labor, wages have gone up. how does this all shake out?

>> i would think they have pricing ability still. chipotle does. i've been shocked how well mcdonald's has been, how efficient. mobile there has been good i have been afraid of china. we saw it with pg&e, that pricing power, even though sales may not have been fantastic, the pricing power more than made up for that. >> there's an interesting reuters analysis of nielsen iq data that found they actually rolled back prices on a number of products including detergent and toilet paper. >> but are they smaller? >> they're smaller and rolled back the prices. >> but per ounce, purr unit. >> that shrink flation is going on getting back to the restaurants, mcdonald's is the "m" in any

c.a.l.m. even at 27 times i find it to be a compelling name. gross mar gins around 57%. the run it's had from march to now does make it seem a bit stretched. my view is we are going into a -- that's not really what i want to hank my hat on, i want gross margin and tried to true through previous downturns. >> here's a question -- what is more "defensive" -- i don't mean the traditional meaning just in this department, perceived as safety which is more of that category, mcdonald's or microsoft? >> mcdonald's should be, it's tried and true in a recession previously going to get the tradedown effect with an mcdonald's. but the way the markets are reacting they keep running to

microsofts, mcdonald's as point of safety. i don't know if that's accurate or not i know i set this before, there's a trap it's already gone up so much i would still look at microsoft -- mcdonald's as more of a safety play there. >> coming up, a healthy rally in bank pharma caught one of our trader's attention the names next you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back after this. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep,

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♪♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. >> welcome back to "fast money." okay, mark your calendars, set your -- whatever it system today on "last call," he's sitting down with the one person he's never interviewed, his ai self-. brian is interviewing fake brian

tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time so many questions we have. i'm going to leave it at that, but it's going to be worth watching eli lilly jumping to all-time highs. more bullish action in the obesety drug space marrien, you were -- >> i'm out of littlery, out of nordisk but i have merck and bristol meyers i'm forgetting one other i like the space still, but the run in these weight loss diabetes drugs has been so enormous understandably this will probably be the biggest drug of all time, but i feel like getting on board at lilly, especially with the alzheimer's reimbursement news, but we don't know the drug itself is good william a don't

know that. it will be good if it is good and they get reimbursement. >> jeff, where are you in pharma right now? >> i've talked about merck for a while. that's my steady eddie looks look it's about to break out to a new high at 115 i think as a stock like lilly is interesting. generally these obesety drugs -- they're talking about peak sale of $25 billion that's larger than a drug like humira, which is a massive blockbuster. comparing them, if you look at the chart of lilly versus nvo, nvo is vertical, where lilly looks like it's just breaking out. i'd be more comfortable being there. generally speaking i agree with karen. there's been a run, but potentially massive long-term. >> yeah. courtney >> i think people got excited about this pace last year and

turned on it this year after it that massive outperformance. you're starting to see people come back into the space, but i think that's likely going to continue this year yes, it's had a good run, but still has room definitely want this in your portfolio. >> is this in your barbell either end >> merck you look at the earnings, 70 times for america, 40 and 8 time lilly. looking at divergent -- you've got the celebrity endorsements i always think that's going to attract the retail investor. >> time for the final trade. let's go around the horn jeff mills. >> well, we've all said it -- merck. i think generally throws into health care have been week, so i'm watching the 115 level i think it breaks and goes higher. >> bonawyn eison >> staying calm with mcdonald's.

>> exxon something you want to take a look at. >> karen >> yes, going into thorrings i am long alphabet, so that's my final trade. >> that does it for us here on "fast money" w." what a week it's been. "options action" up after this quick break. trying to analyze market trends.

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right now, a monster week on tap for earnings for the four horsemen of tech a few staples. we'll go inside the numbers, get you ready for the action mcd's, chipotle and -- all out with results later we'll take a look back at a terrible week for tesla. also look at the trade we put in ahead of this week's results i'm melissa lee. on the