good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines credit suisse first quarter outflows tops 60 billion swiss francs and the warning that depositors are still pulling out the cash philips shares tops the stoxx 600 on the best pace since 2008 the ceo tells cnbc he is

optimistic about the the future >> we are looking confidently to the plan for 2023 on the solid order book and execution of the plan, we are confident that 2023 will be a good year. software ag board backs a takeover offer from silverlake valuing the german cloud group at a premium and sending shares surging in early trade. and u.s. futures point to a lower open as investors embrace for tech earnings with alphabet and microsoft and meta all reporting this week. happy monday

warm welcome to "street signs. let's kickoff the show with the insight into what is happening in germany the april survey coming through. the business climate index has come in at 93.6. that is expected of 94 slightly lower than forecast we are still in decent territory at the 93.6 level. in terms of the current as soon as -- current conditions index at 95.4 over 95 and the german april reading was 92.2 against 91.2. they are all slightly weaker than expected. let's get to annette who joins us with more analysis on the data annette, wonderful to see you. what is the take on the ifo surveys that just came through

>> reporter: as were you saying, it is improving, but less improvement than expected. analysts were bullish for the german economy the mix is still uncertain and high inflation is eating into the profitability of quite a lot of companies who can cannot pass on the costs on top of that, it is uncertain with the energy prices and the world economy. it is the mix which is uncertain. my recent discussion with the ceos, they were all stressing that the second half of the year is the pivotal moment when we can judge whether germany is out of the woods development. we have more ifo economists say the german corporates or

companies that want to raise prices has fallen again. it is about pricing power and we feel the stock picking and you need to pick those with high pricing power because conditions are still confronted with also higher input prices whereas producer prices are going down it is stthe quick take on the i numbers. >> annette, super to highlight that number of german companies want to highlight falling prices stay with us we will bring in the special guest to discuss this further. we have our ifo president to join us now. wonderful to see you the levels seem strong, but not

quite as strong as expected. as annette pointed out, it looks like german leaders may now finally recognize or hit the point where they can't raise prices further from here how do you characterize the state of play based on the latest surveys >> pessimism we had in the winter is an abating people say, okay, we have come through the winter all right and there was no gas rationing that is positive what also is positive is in manufacturing companies that were hit by high energy prices, there is some recovery at the same time, there is no d dynamism in the current expectation. the situation continues to be relatively weak. so, i think it is the picture of

the stagnating economy, but one that isn't falling into recession. >> interesting choice of words no dynamism showing through in the german economy where might that dynamism come from and what does this is suggest about the future >> i think the expectation component is recovering, but still not great. the signal here is, yes, no disaster and no recession, but still uncertainty ahead. i think the businesses are cautious and that is something that should be reflected in cap x and other decisions. the outlook is a mixed bag >> this is an nette in frankfurt what are the uncertainties

highlighting as the biggest worries when it comes to investment planning? >> so one factor is clearly rising capital costs and rising interest rates and concerns about the cost of monetary policy clearly there are risks here and then, of course, energy costs are lower at the moment and have come down we don't know what will happen in the next winter there is a lot of uncertainty of energy policy, really. what exactly is the path of energy policy and what does it mean how quickly will infrastructure be constructed at the same time, there is a high tax burden in germany a lot of regulator burden and uncertainty. that is why the overall mood isn't great. >> the construction sector especially is worrying about the outlook given the high interest rights how about is the situation --

interest rates how bad is the situation there >> yes, pretty bad the business climate and current situation in the construction sector is the lowest level since 2015 that reflects the combination of high prices in the sector and high interest rates. a lot of projects have been put on hold. it would take time before that recovers another issue in the sector is the regulations regarding climate protection so heating for buildings will be regulated differently. so this all drives costs and energy standards are rising. this drives costs and stops investors from pursuing projects >> clemens, let me take

something from annette highlighted. the number of german companies that want to raise prices has fallen again we are in the middle of earnings season in europe what does this isay about the german corporates for the year >> that suggests that margins will be coming down. the supply bottlenecks are easing that means companies can produce more and will want to produce and want to sell more. that, of course, will lead to pressure on prices suggesting margins will come down, but quantities will increase it doesn't necessarily mean profits will be going down the margin component of profits has probably reached its maximum. >> okay. what about china what are the businesses in germany seeing in terms of

demand from china? >> the chinese economy is recovering strongly. more strongly than was expected. that's good news for german companies operating in china that is against the back drop of worries regarding the long-term relationship in the short-term relationship, conditions with china exposure are in a good situation. >> let me ask about the german consumer as well i recently heard ceo of a bank saying he is expecting the second half of this year will be pivotal here because people will keep on spending until the summer what is your view? how are those companies you are in contact with concerned about the consumption? >> real incomes have been

squeezed real incomes of consumers have been squeezed. many have used up savings they accumulated during the pandemic. these savings are gone now the real incomes are falling the key issue is how wage settlements are going. what we see in the public sector is a way to settlement which is high and wage settlement favoring low incomes that is good news for consumption demand these are the households that spend that current income. what we are going to see is relatively stable private consumption demand that means core inflation may not decline as quickly as many people hoped >> last week, we spent time talking about european autos which took a hit after tesla came out and said they will be prioritizing market share over profitability over the

near-to-medium term. how are the german automakers feeling? are you seeing any signs that the outlook for the german auto sector has worsened given the pricing outlook for evs? >> we don't see a big impact on the outlook in the data. nevertheless, german automakers will be affected by pricing of others i just think we are not there yet because there still are bottlenecks in the supply chains and increasing market share is difficult if you don't have the auto parts to achieve that of course, in the medium term that is what one would expect. the current situation where quantities are small and easy to maintain prices is natural that this will not be maintained in the long term. in the near term, we go back to a more competitive environment

that will lead to pressures on m margins, of course >> clemens, thank you. president of ifo annette, thank you stick around we will come back to you on a corporate story in germany we will take a quick break credit suisse logged outflows in the first quarter. we will have more on the lender results after this short break

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welcome back to the program. european equities off to a sluggish start hovering at the flat line at the stoxx 600 which is down five basis points for context, coming into today, we saw the stoxx 600 gain about .50% last week its fifth positive week in a row. in the u.s. last week, all three indices pulling back this week, it is all about earnings we have a huge number of tech

names taking center stage in the u.s. and the europeans also getting under way with reporting season as well as for the regions this morning. we very broad based put back ftse mib is down .80%. ftse 100 is down .20%. swiss banks in focus this week with credit suisse today and ubs tomorrow on that note, let's look at the sectors and see how the banks are faring financial services out in front. up .60%. retail up .6%. we are seeing selling in oil and gas and autos and gas. no major movers. we are seeing significant moves stock wise this masks outsized moves. philips up 11% after the up beat q1 earnings.

ae is sharply up and futures. wall street showing all three majors with a weaker start to trade this morning as investors gear up for the major earnings alphabet and microsoft and meta and amazon all due to report this week. a lot of insight we will gain into the health of the u.s. tech sector back in europe, credit suisse reported net outflows of 61 billion francs in the first quarter. outflows had not reversed by the 24th of april, but moderated from high levels around the time of the emergency takeover by ubs. that line particularly interesting and they are continuing to see outflows that has implications for what will happen to ubs as the takeover actually happens. here is the look at shares credit suisse is trading higher. ubs is doing okay.

up 1.6%. ubs will take center stage tomorrow when it publishes results since the emergency takeover of credit suisse. executives expected to layout the strategy the merger has been backed by swiss authorities. the government backed the loss guarantee and ubs assuming the first $5 billion of losses that is a fascinating set of earnings not for the numbers, but the management team shapes the outlook. we will be live from zurich tomorrow morning for the ubs results. geoff will speak to ceo sergio ermotti. elsewhere in the financial space, gam delayed the publication of the annual report to may in a bid to conclude commercial discussions they are in talks with the swiss

bank the lowest outflows since 2018 total assets came in at 75 billion swiss francs last year let's get to the latest in the stoxx 600. philips set aside 5$575 million for the litigation costs the dutch health technology company had better results in the first quarter with profit jumping 50% and sales rising 6%. ceo roy jacobs says the company is on the way to improving performance and returns to shareholders. >> we are having a plan that we are executing which gets the full company back to the performance trajectory and progressive valuations step up it is important for getting to

growth in the first quarter and improve margins and profit which is really important for that at the same time, in the area of safety and quality, making sure we mediate all of the patients also working through the settlements and call out economic losses which is the first important step and good development and resolve in that case the combination of continuing to work on patient safety and quality and working on the plan to get the company back to the full performance which makes philips return to its valuation path software ag is in talks with a takeover from silver lake at $2.4 billion that offer is a 50% premium to the closing price on friday. what is interesting is the share price in the lead up to the news which suggests this came as a

surprise to the investment community. let's see what annette has to say which knows about ag and the offer on the table annette, was this a surprise to the investment community >> actually, the share price is telling us that this is a surprise to the community, but if you look at the underlining dynamics, it is quite clear that silver lake has been an investor in software ag for some time and silver lake with the focus on i.t. companies yes, it was said to be interested all together. if the market hasn't anticipated it, it was, in a way, already out there as a potential development. let me run through the rational of the deal. software ag is not really a big known player in germany, it is the second

biggest i.t. company with a big gap after s.a.p. they came from big computing less and less in the area of business they tried to diversify itself in a way into business analytics and a.i. solutions never really made it to achieve or lift in the areas here comes the private equity investors. that is what silver lake can do to software ag and they are confident to level off the business with that private equity involvement now with software ag the bottom line is the deal is a friendly deal and it is welcome by the management and the foundation keeps a 5% stake in the company going forward so it is not sold 100% to silver lake. >> annette, is there any read

across to the broader sector in this deal going ahead or is this a standalone deal given the private equity investment? >> actually , it is a standalone deal right now if you look at what is left with the interest in i.t. companies which is not a lot. there has been a deal on friday with fujitsu with a smaller company. there have been m&a activity in the sector recently silver lake bought a unit from s.a.p. an online based opinion pollster there has been quite some activity in that i.t. sector you could argue valuations are still low given the sale of last

year when it comes to i.t. companies and outlook for higher interest rates that seems why the timing is right for these deals right now. >> very interesting stuff. annette, thank you for bringing us the latest. coming up on the program, some welcome news for the uk economy after a vote of confidence from the key ratings agency we'll discuss more after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines fresh data shows german business sentiment improving for the sixth straight month ifo president clemens says it is lacking momentum >> there is no dynamism in the economy and the current situation which was never as bad as expected, the current expectation continues to be relatively weak.

credit suisse outflows tops 60 billion swiss francs and the depositors are continuing to pull out cash. software ag board backs a $2 billion takeover offer from silver lake. valuing the group at a premium and sending shares surging in early trade. u.s. futures point to lower open as investors brace for a flurry of tech earnings with alphabet and microsoft and meta all reporting this week. we're just about an hour and a half into the european trading session. we have a broad based and model

pullback ftse mib down .90% swiss market and credit suisse trading mildly higher this morning. ubs trading modestly higher after credit suisse delivered the latest set of results showing substantial outflows in the quarter. now attention turning to ubs which delivers results tomorrow. sergio ermotti will talk to us and similar pull back for the french market. forex with the dollar gain 1.7% and in terms on rates, on the back of the strong pmi print on friday for the u.s., fed futures are pricing in a 90% probability of 25 point hike from the federal reserve in may this morning, we have the dollar trading on the back foot against the swiss franc. euro is steady at 109.80

in bond markets, yields move lower across the board every major region in europe is seeing a 10-year yield moving lower. 10-year bund at 2.46%. italian btp is trading 4.33%. wall street futures with a pull back in store for trade today after the down beat, but really range bound week for trade last week. the dow jones industrial average pulled back .20% s&p just 10 basis points nasdaq under performed lightly .4% pull back. it was a tight trading week. we will see what happens when the tech giants come in with earnings we will be talking in more detail with arjun with alphabet and amazon and meta reporting

result this week. in europe, s&p global revises outlook for uk credit rating to stable public finances improving. s&p said it expects the uk economy to contract modestly this year. let's take a look at uk assets as i mentioned sterling with not much changed ftse 100 with little movement. we have the senior economist joining us calum, we had been getting interesting data in the uk the last week. it is wonderful to have out the program to talk about what to make of it perhaps we can kickoff with the inflation print. the last reading came in hotter than many had expected we are still in double digits with headline inflation. how concerning was that to you >> i wasn't especially concerned about the upside price and in context as you mentioned, the economic data being better than

expected it will force the bank of england to hike in may the bank of england is now data dependent. if we get upside surprise on inflation, we will move which is now on when we think of inflation on the medium-term perspective, we have to look at fundamentals that fundamental is fiscal policy that is big energy base effects wearing off this year. the expectations are fairly well anchored my bet is once the base effects of energy bring inflation down with a lag, we will see wage pressure ease soon i'm not all that worried just yet about the sticky inflation problem we might have. >> fascinating when you say in your note that the drop to come is forward looking data on the direction of underlining price pressure signal a drop off in the rate of core inflation is imminent what are you talking about with core inflation

>> core inflation usually is the best underlining measure parts of core are being effected by the as stro no, -- astronomi gas prices i know it is old fashion to look at money supply data, but a 12-month lag and that is money leading the uk inflation for the past couple years. if we were focused on m-4 producer prices before the inflation surge last year, we would have had a good idea where the peak would have been we would not have seen the big upside surprises broad money and producer price is dropping fast that is consistent with the underline price plressures >> i'll have to fill joumanna when she is back tomorrow.

how are consumers holding up in the hotter than expected inflation? >> the big issue that we have had at the moment is when you have high inflation, it is difficult to get a good idea on what demand is doing that is the willingness to spend. if you look at the uk consumer in cash terms, it has been robust even with the high inflation households have decent balance sheets labor markets are strong we have the spending power and savings just to keep spending and hold our nose. in cash terms, things look good. where we see the big damage is real terms much less for money now prices have risen by so much. my outlook is that in cash terms, consumers will continue to spend strongly. what will happen is as inflation normalizes, people start getting more for their money the overall demand situation probably won't change. it is actually on the price and

supply side where things improve and that makes for a decent consumer recovery in terms of what you get for your money. i think the markets are too pessimistic in the next couple years. we will see a consumer led recovery in the second half that beats expectations next year >> i suppose the outlook for the consumer is somewhat linked to the outlook for the housing market given how important a house is to the household. what is the outlook for the housing market and do you see a housing correction already unfolding? >> housing correction is already under way. imagine we're probably halfway through it my base case is we get a peak to trough price of 10%. what is surprised me so far and this is why i was pessimistic about the consumer is the

falling house prices which is a consistent argument would drag down consumption a lot as houses turned cautionary. the negative shock to net wealth and we have not seen the drag down on consumer demand. now you have to say why is that. it may be because house prices are still up a lot versus the pre-pandemic level even if we get the 10% correction takes us back to 2021 levels it is partly because the housing market and consumer is not so sensitive as in the past that is due to the fact that a lot of mortgages after the financial crisis were stress tested and so many more houses have equity and you don't get the negative wealth effects quickly when house prices correct. 10% is not enough any more to cause the dragd on consumption n

the past >> kallum, various providers provide different trends halifax out saying uk house prices rose for the third month in a row others suggest a correction under way. what is the real accurate way to look at the housing market >> i generally take the simple weighted average you have all of the indicators i find the housing market data is good. when i take the host of data, whether on prices or transactions or new bury erin k - buyer, that is consistent that the bank of england is tightening the policy. the key for the uk with the economy being weak, the balance

sheet is strong for the uk ranging from banks to houses and businesses the dynamics of asset price corrections are not playing out in the same way. we can tolerate more pain than the past we have buffers to cushion against down side risk some of the lingering supply issues from covid will act as a sp springboard for the recovery we are not seeing anything like 2006 and 2007 or nothing like 1990 with the consumer pull back with house prices correcting >> kallum, let's say everything does materialize could politics get in the way? i know one thesis is once the uk political situation kacalms dow there will be a path to the uk

economy recovering that is where we are right now is this period of calm going to last >> my bet is that it would be. it will last when we spoke last year, my bet was modest recession through winter and fairly robust recovery as the headwinds ease and we fix political issues. the first half of that call, i revised up we have basic stagflation with high employment. it is not good, but better than the modest recession now we had a look at politics. i see rishi sunak pursuing sensible fiscal policies and making friends with the eu it takes economic and political risk off the table if we play out the election, labour take hold with the center

left labour candidate for prime minister and bring economic policies we have taken pop ulism off the table in uk. you go to scotland, s&p is badly damaged. risk of the scottish referendum is low now uk looks different after the brexit vote. now you have a benign political situation. i think markets will like that i think businesses will like that i think consumers will like that >> kallum, thank you for joining us kallum pickering u.s. house speaker kevin mccarthy expects the house to vote on his spending bill this week urging president biden to begin negotiations the plan would rise the debt ceiling conditional on the spending cuts over the next

decades. the row over the debt ceiling is now coming under way with the presidential election next year. monica alba reports from washington >> reporter: president biden getting ready to run again set to launch re-election bid as early as tuesday as an nbc news poll shows 70% of all americans, including 51% of democrats, say he shouldn't seek another term many citing age as a top concern as the president is the oldest ever to serve. democratic lawmakers who support him were quick to dismiss that. >> i was one of the first supporters way back in 2019. i attended his first event in philadelphia i look forward to supporting him again. >> his performance is doing well >> reporter: his potential opponent, former president preside trump, still enjoys two-thirds

of the backing of americans. majority of all americans surveyed say they don't want either to run in 2024. >> what america does not want is another repeat of 2020 where we have joe biden and donald trump against each other. >> reporter: as mr. trump and his former vice president spoke about abortion rights in iowa saturday night >> we appointed three justices to the supreme court of the united states that sent roe v. wade to the ash heap of history where it belongs >> justices differ a landmark victory for protecting independent life >> reporter: not everyone agrees >> republicans need to read the room on the issue. vast majority of folks are not ext extreme. and nbc universal ceo jeff

shell left his role after an inappropriate relationship with a female with the company. executives at nbc universal will report to mike cavanaugh coming up on the "street signs," u.s. earnings season enters the biggest week yet. we will look at what to expect after this break

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welcome back to "street signs. alibaba is preparing to be one of the six units to ipo. the business is in conversation with banks about the possible hong kong listing the offering could fetch as much as $20 billion alibaba grocery unit is also laying the ground work for an everything on. emily tam filed this report. >> reporter: this could be the first of six units to go public.

preparations for a hong kong listing with several banks expressing interest in the ipo this comes after the overhaul of alibaba business splitting into six units. responding to questions, alibaba said there were no clear ipo plans or timetable according to analysts, the most mature conditions is bringing on the listing. the grocery chain started the shares for the listing this is the first for alibaba since it was canceled in november of 2020 i'm emily tan. back to you. china is spending $7 billion to strengthen the domestic supply chains amid u.s. restrictions chip manufacturers won half of

the public bids this year with the number of companies using domestic technology. the u.s. is reportedly asking south korea not to fill any market gaps in china if beijing bans micron from operating in the country china's regulator said it will carry out a security review of the micron products. the u.s. government is concerned that south korea's chip manufacturers will boost sales after the decision south korea's president will meet president joe biden in washington this week arjun is here to tell us what it means for the chip space we know it is super political. what is the read >> two threads here. one is china investing billions in domestic chip sector. that is necessary for the country if it wants to catch up in the face of the sanctions and

issues with the sclupply chain. you have the u.s. with the sweeping reforms on chips. in order to work, they need to buy from japan and netherlands and south korea as well. this is what that story really speaks to. you see the u.s. over the past few months run the campaign of getting nations on their side when it comes to the chip export restrictions on china. for them to work, they need the buy-in from those countries and the companies from the countries as well. in south korea, samsung and tsm. china is a huge market there is a concern if the companies end up not being able to export certain chips to china, that to impact the business two threads at play here >> clearly this is an important space for china as well.

have we had much of a response from china to this story >> i think the micron investigation is a read of retaliation, if you will, against the u.s. chip making company. china's problem is it will struggle heavily to catch up with the leading edge when it comes to chips it doesn't have the domestic companies capable of doing what the foreign firms can do right now, china's chip industry relies on american companies and japanese companies and south korean companies and tsmc in taiwan if china can't get their hands on the equipment or tools required to make the most advanced chips such as those produced by asml in the netherlands or designs from the american firms, that means they cannot catch up. >> handicaps them. >> they can't catch up to what is the cutting edge of chip technology. >> wow so much to keep track of in the chip space

arjun, stay with us. i want to talk tech earnings one-third of the s&p is reporting this week. microsoft and alphabet report on tuesday and meta on wednesday. amazon on thursday arjun, you know, i want to talk about the big theme. it is hard to capture them all in one place i suppose i would ask are investors by and large expecting a strong set of earnings this season weak earnings? what is the general expectation? >> firstly, a massive rally in the nasdaq and tech names as well i think that is more a function of interest rate expectation rather than investors cheering on the health of the tech sector following on from that, the expectation is low we have seen expectations come down the market is not expecting blockbuster numbers. if i give you a read, analysts

are expecting a 13% drop year on year for alphabet. 25% drop at meta 27% for apple the. cloud computing at amazon, they are expecting 15% revenue. a slowdown from the last quarters microsoft with 14% revenue growth in the cloudy v division. both are expected to report a drop in ad revenue i think going into the year is the market is expecting bad numbers. they have to meet expectations any sort of miss on expectations is bad news. regardless of what interest rates are doing. the key is what is the forward

guidance what are companies saying about what the current quarter is and a couple of quarters out and the rest of the year will things be improving those are the questions the market will have >> we are also hearing about cost cutting in the tech sector. layoffs we have seen coming out of silicon valley. obviously obviously, it is good for the bottom line. >> there was an overhiring that took place in the pandemic boom. there is a normalization take an -- taking place now the moon shots are not profitable i think the key is understanding where the job cuts are coming and investment microsoft and open a.i massive investment google investing in a.i. that is what analysts want to talk about

a.i. investment. where is the strategy? are you investing in technology that is key for the future that is key to hear. companies say we are in a cost cutting mode, but still investing for growth that is the key message they will need to thread carefully. >> what an exciting week hope you will be with us arjun, thank you keeping with the tech sector alphabet's ceo sundar pichai was given over $200 million in compensation last year check out the full story on cnbc.com. bed, bath & beyond filed for bankruptcy in the u.s. over the weekend. the retailer tried to raise money, but will now liqliquidat

all of its stores. and u.s. futures let's see how wall street is shaping up in the week for tech earnings red across the board dow jones industrial average set to pull back 100 points after dropping .20% last week. s&p is looking to pull back modestly nasdaq is looking at weakness in trade today. all of this after a pretty range bound week a lot of people asking the question what will trigger the markets to breakout of the trading range. arjun said it may meet expectations for the tech names. that may be enough that is it for "street signs." thank you for tuning in. i'm julianna tatelbaum "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. investors brace for the busiest week of the season more than 50 s&p companies reporting. alphabet, amazon, meta looking at the cost cutting campaigns. and call it the latest chapter in the global arms race. one western super power readies a military rebuild its biggest since world war ii