270 today and this is a company with strong fundamental and technical momentum. >> and they sell baby chicks, weiss? >> farmer jim is smiling somewhere and he'll call you after the show i'll buy more unitedhealthcare and it's now going to be moving up higher. there's one caveat humana reports on wednesday morning if they have a rough quarter which i don't expect unh had a great quarter. >> we will watch them all. that does it for halftime today. "the exchange" starts right now. . >> hi, everybody welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. bed bath, and finally answering the great beyond filing for bankruptcy in just a week and is it simply a sign of mismanagement post-pandemic, we'll talk about the recent jump in bankruptcies the fallout for banks and reits. the signal only seen right

before a recession and we'll tell you where it is and where you want to deploy your money against the backdrop speaking of which, lvmh is the first european company to top the $ 500 billion market cap and hermes is the same as berkshire, but which makes the better vibe. carter worth tells us which one ahead and first we start with today's markets and at least the nasdaq has some action >> there's action and it's very much a holding pattern ahead of a very busy week of earnings and kelly, i knowyou'll delve into that story in the course of this hour, but we've got about a third of the s&p 500 reporting results throughout the course of this week, and that's maybe one of the reasons why you're seeing a little bit less movement in the broader s&p 500 which is down five points right now about 0.1% 41.28 4128 is the trade and in the middle of the range so far today. the dow industrials just about

flat on the session, 33812 and real activity comparatively speaking and the nasdaq composite 11,99737 one of the four reasons why four related names mega-cap wise are reporting results. as i noted, it is amazon, meta platforms and alphabet, the parent company of google and microsoft. if you're seeing those stocks trade one of the reasons why we are seeing movement there, and microsoft shares are down 2% amazon shares are down one and meta platforms is down one-half of 1% so big tech stocks, very much dominating the discussion later on this week and speaking of earnings, arguably, the most important and most scrutinized regional bank report this earnings reporting season will happen today this afternoon and that's first republic bank, one of the banks at the epicenter of the fallout tied to silicon valley bank and signature bank

collapses and first republic shares makes them the bet performing stock ahead of the earnings report after today's closing bell i know we'll talk about this during earnings e change and i'll give you stats later on and the options market is pricing severe fireworks. >> there were people who thought the fact that we didn't get any news from the fdic last night ahead of this result, there's a sense that, okay, maybe we'll make it to earnings and maybe the dust is settling a little bit. >> to your point, kelly, i think that's part of the story here. the idea that we saw western alliance come out and we saw a huge pop in their stock just giving some semblance as deposit stability in recent weeks. if that were to happen hypothetically, we don't know yet and that could be one of the reasons why we're seeing traders get ahead of this right now or close out some of those positions and flatten out. >> look for us chatting more about it we'll see you in a minute, dom

chu. let's get to a minute of corporate stories and post-pandemic hangover that we st seem to be getting through and no one stepped up yet. walmart continuing its fire sale of retail companies it bought over the last several years including bonobos and eloquy and johnson & johnson gearing the other way for the planned spin-off of the health care business they could target a $40 billion valuation for kenview for more, we have dan premack and j & j is a spin-off and it's not all things being shuttered and we have seen a spike in bankruptcies here. >> we have seen a spike in bankruptcies obviously, there's a huge difference between j & j and the consumer business and the household brands that we all know and things like bed, bath and beyond which have been troubled for years and they're finally throwing in the towel and maybe someone steps up in

the last minute and even if they do, it's most likely that what they'll buy is the brand if you think about it, you might remember a decade-plus ago, they had a company called linens 'n things, it technically still existeds as a brand and not on anybody's street corner. >> people are trying to figure out that it had the brief period and it didn't do much to capitalize on. were there management mistakes what could or should they have done >> most of this is secular, right? this is a company that's been trying to bale water out of a sinking ship and the ceos did have strategy changes and it had the deal with the real estate, historically and that is often a pending death knell for companies and it definitely contributed to its ultimate

bankruptcy and its biggest problem was walmart and target and amazon that was really what bed bath's real problem was it didn't have a particular reason to exist. >> i'm just looking through it here, and the corporate stories as i mentioned aren't the only ones and you have subway with the $10 billion deal and authentic brand which is is a personal favorite and there is some activity although as we saw from earnings and goldman and the like these aren't big blockbuster-type deals that are their bread and butter >> no. what you're seeing in the retail space right now is bargain hunting essentially, right walmart, as you say, is selling a burch of b to c brands like mark lore, and walmart shut down jet.com which is the thing they bought from lore walmart is trying to get rid of all of its d to c stuff and it is certainly not worth what would it have been several years ago and there are private equity firms that might take that and

authentic brands is the other side of walmart and it buys things that are relatively low valued and struggling and the public markets and the companies want to sell off >> you make the point and we look at the ipo. is the window open and corporate spinouts are working with 85% of companies that went public via traditional ipo with 21, 22 are below the offer prices and 85% that's astonishing >> it's awful. the j&j, spin-off is the exception to this. it's one of those strong fundamental companies that could probably go public in most any market and it goes with an industry trend pfizer and glaxosmithkline the consumer health divisions similar to what j&j, is doing and they want pharma to be separate from this, and beyond that, you have a huge pipeline of private venture-backed companies so-called unicorns that are waiting to go public.

in instacart, et cetera and what you need there is someone to break the dam and someone to be courageous and go out and j & j won't be that and it's the end of 2021 when rivian went public and it's not the thing that convinces others to go out because it doesn't look like most other things. you need a big unicorn company to get those gears going again >> we have the debt ceiling looming and macro with the fall and who would be the companies to watch, if you think we might potentially break that down if you don't have trial balloons about it >> insta cart is interesting because it has some characteristics with others and they've been waiting for a while, but what you honestly really need is an enterprise software company a boring, vanilla enterprise software company because that's what's really in the pipeline and it has to be general enough that they go, they look a little bit like us and we don't do the exact same thing and they're a fast model and have over $100

million of recurring revenue that's what you really need. a boring company and want a one of a kind company and instacart is one-of-a-kind and you don't have a lot of instacart-esque comp companies out there. >> the marks have had a good start to the year so far the s&p up 8%. the nasdaq's up 15%, but my next guest says investors really only face two choices right now fight the fed or fight the tape, and he's choosing to fight the tape joining me is jeff weiss at american century investments and great to see you again, rich, welcome. >> same here, kell pep good to see you. >> a lot of investors tell me you never fight the tape they're not worth much, why do you take a different view here >> a lot of large cap growth stocks which are having a nice rebound to your point year to date from last year's disaster,

but this whole immaculate disinflation theory we might espouse and not religion and if you look at u.s. history, the stocks bottom out during or after a recession starts, and not six, nine months beforehand. so we think with the litany, the laundry list of economic and financial indicators pointing downward, things are going to get worse before they get better and it's decelerating growth and stubborn inflation so at this point, the only debate that's valid in our mind is not if, but when the rese recession starts, will it be low and shallow or long and painful like a game of cricket that's the only choice right now. >> don't offend the cricket fans let me push pack more and choose

the line that we've been warned about a recession and that's not the end of the world you know, it's sort of this, the forecasters have been telling us for every month or two or three months that the downturn is coming and the downturns of 8% year to date >> well, we are winding our way through the economic cycle and housing in recession and manufacturing statistics and the pmis and the isms. as bad as we've seen since '07 and '08 and certainly not saying that it will get that bad and the consumers, retail sales numbers in real terms plateauing or even declining possibly, we're starting to see some cracks in the labor market and i think that's eventually what will turn this market around labor market jobs as we all know and the last shoe to drop in an economic cycle and if and when

that starts to come down i think we'll see equity markets wake up to the fact that things are getting worse before they get better and they'll reprice especially with earnings headed where they are you saw the last quarter last year and now this first quarter coming in on average, earnings recession. there are some bright spots, but for the most part on average we're talking about earnings declining by 3% to 5% or more. >> what i think is fascinating and assets under management are over $200 billion. it's one thing for the rest of us to look like it's pretty bad and you have to figure out what to do with the money in the meantime, where is it and where are you putting it right now how can you turn away, 4, 4.5% credit worthy. >> hopefully most credit worthy. right. right. we'll see perhaps in the next couple months and i think we'll pull through that eefrntventual.

you have 4, 4.5%, and if you want to move into corporate, you don't have to dmit your money for very long. you don't have to take a lot of interest rate risk and this is the safe, smart play right now as far as we can see it. so we remain underweighted equities in favor of cash or near-term instruments and fixed income, but with that said, you know, if our outlook for the recession comes to fruition, we have been migrating longer in duration you're likely to be picking up some basis points at the longer end in the near future >> tlt trade it's back. it's tbt or tlc and maybe the times have changed and not that you're investing >> rich, thank you so much for your time, we appreciate it. >> rich rice for american century investment >> coming up, the key to predicting a resescession couldi

in the figure and michael cardia can ensure what you're watching at the highest since november 2021 we also talk about the beverage makers like coke and pepsi, but should investors be paying more attention to the bottlers. we'll begin that debate next "the exchange" is back in a coupconnect your business, this is "the exchange" on cnbcs can kn and order their own replacement parts. (foreman) nice work. (vo) and retailers can get ahead of the fashion trend of the day with a new line tomorrow. with a verizon private 5g network, you can get more agility and security. giving you more control of your business. we call this enterprise intelligence. from the network america relies on. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates,

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welcome back to "the exchange." as to the debate of if or when we might hit a recession look no further as one data point for the answer and continuing claims. they're on 22% year on year or just prior to recession. i'm pleased to be joined by michael cardia, chief economist and market strategist at -- and the dog. i always have to mention good to see you. welcome. >> good to see you thank for having me. the data is so consistent that i don't understand why the market didn't care. any thoughts about that? and i think we all have some sense of fatigue, even myself, but it's hard to escape the message of some of these numbers, jobless claims are a leading indicator, but a much more near-term leading indicator. the yield curve, monetary

growth, residential real estate, leading indicators, but long horizon indicators jobless claims tend to inflect just right before recessions usually with the head's up of only a couple of months on average, if that and what we're seeing from continuing claims, as you noted up 22.1% year over year in the weekly data set totally unprecedented outside of reses recessions or just prior to a recession taking place >> is it possible that we got art artificially low because of the cash and the labor market. in other words, is it not a real starting point to start from what i think the best we got was last fall. should we instead start from something quote, unquote, more realistic like january >> well, recessions just aren't at levels, but rates have changed. i don't think so, but that will be the argument. if you listen to what the bull case is it's simply that the data got distorted by the

pandemic everything is fine the labor market is going to stay tight, so it won't really be a recession or if it happens it will be so mild the market might not even notice. i think that's a bit of wishful thinking, unfortunately. i think we all hope we can simply sale through this without a downturn, but boy, you're making an aggressive bet against a lot of indicators that have historically been quite helpful in warning about a potential downturn inverted treasury yield curve, a collapse in money supply growth which, by the way, probably is going to be ongoing. if you're watching the commercial bank deposit data every week, it's collapsing and we're down almost a trillion dollars in nominal terms from year-ago levels and literally unprecedented. and you have the fed that was pursuing this inverted yield curve policy, which, if anything will intensify if futures markets are correct and they'll go for another rate hike and behind the scenes they're continuing to do qt,

quantitative tightening and the reserves base that all of the deposits and broad money are built on is continuing to go south and so in that environment, do you really want to make aggressive bets for soft landings or no landings in a situation where the equity market is, at least priced if are that, if not something more, and i would say just -- you're really not getting paid in these risk markets to make that bet at this point so it makes sense, in my view to play it closer to the vest more defensively in here. >> health care and that kind of thing. >> i always read your pieces and think can we just short things watching these leading indicators for at least nine months now, and yet the market -- that into the end of the year and we've pivoted since then and the camp that i hear sometimes a mild recession is already priced in. do you think that's plausible? >> it doesn't look like it to me at 18.5 times forward estimates

and the forward estimates are coming down now and they're probably still too high. if you think there's a recession out there then the estimates are surely too high and an 18.5 multiple is pretty rosy multiple if you've already bottomed out there in terms of the recession being priced in and making history there. no, the equity market is too rich here if there actually is a recession and a further decline in earnings. another fun statistic for you, you can look back at every profits recession in u.s. history and some of those have occurred without a generalized economic recession, but we've never had an inverted yield curve ever without a profits recession that accompanies it and we're in one now and it's just been mild and i think what's happened to risk markets here and the big headwinds last year were soaring inflation, soaring market interest rates and a super-rapid rise in short term policy rates and now that's mostly behind us or reversing

and so, you know, that was a big headwind to market valuations. the problem we have in front of us is whether this moderate earnings recession turns into a deeper one and with the fed and its inverted yield curve policy following lagging economic indicators continuing to do quantitative tightening to the banking crisis and it looks a bit shaky to me. >> quick final question, mike, because for what you laid out the fed says we don't do monetary aggregate, and if you were to say let's put this in cpi terms or pce and we'll focus on the monthly inflation numbers, is there any chance that those are low enough 3% by the summer that gives them plenty of cover for a rate cut is there any chance they can pick up steam again? what would you estimate? >> the fed has drawn a line in the sand now on so pf called super core inflation and labor

market and wage pressures and those indices can be helpful if all you're dealing is with supply side shocks if you're trying to pick up a demand shop whether you're a keynesian or monitorist and you're looking in the rear-view mirror and you're looking at those sticky price inflation variables and that is just not going to do it's like steering a car straight over the cliff, but looking in the rear-view mirror at the clear road behind you saying no problem. the coast is clear >> i guess my point is because they just have a different philosophy, will they ever kind of -- when is the preferred inflation data set going to be consistent with the level where they feel like they can pause or even cut >> well, they pay attention to slack. in the keynesian model, slack is the modus operandi of the inflation process and if the unemployment rate starts to rise violently they'll certainly pay attention to that, but you're already in the recession when that occurs and the neutral interest rate would be falling in that scenario, so if they're

starting to move not until that happens and then they're moving gradually you can still end up with a fairly deep downturn and most people are not talking about that right now >> for sure. i'm envisioning a scenario when they say we know unemployment is up and it's still historically low and inflation is historically high and we'll see what the next months bring mike, always good to check with you. thank so much. mica cardia, ross mkn. >> lvmh going where no european company has gone before past the $5 bli00ilon threshold and it's great for bernard arnault and if you're an investor it's time to take profits and we'll debate that when the exchange comes back after this. - what? - especially when it comes to your finances. - yeehaw! - do you have a question? - are you a certified financial planner™? - yes. i'm a cfp® professional. - cfp® professionals are committed to acting in your best interest.

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welcome back to "the exchange." i'm not just highlighting this today because i grew up raround syrac syracuse the wall street journal reported it was buying it for $10 billion in stock and cash and we'll have more by the way, and a lot of people read through it in just a moment. how about ai, it is down 11% on a downgrade of the underperform with the $14 price target and almost 18 right now. the analysts expecting slowing growth concerns saying he remains skeptical of c3's ability to hit financial targets. its shares had more than triple the start of the year and they lost more than half their value and for more head over to cnbc.com/probe and over to tyler matheson for a cnbc news update.

here is a cnbc news update at this hour fox news is parting ways with anchor tucker carlson. the network announced the stunning news days after it agreed to pay nearly $800 million to dominion voting systems for a high-stakes defamation trial fox news did not specify why carlson is leaving the network. >> nbc universal ceo jeff shell is leaving the company after an outside investigation into a complaint of, quote, inappropriate conduct. shell will depart effective immediately after admitting to an inappropriate relationship with a female within the company. there is no search under way for a successor to shell, the person added. in the meantime, comcast president mike cavanaugh will assume shell's duties. we should note that comcast is cnbc's parent company. and don lemon is out at cnn. the news comes as lemon has been at the center of a string of controversies over his on-air

comments and treatment of female colleagues lemon posting on twitter that he learned of the news this morning through his agent and no one from the network reached out to him directly to inform him of his termination. cnn says lemon was offered an opportunity to speak with management three big media stories in the news today, kelly. back to you. >> i'll see you next hour? >> yes i'll be here i think. >> coming up, a tale of two stocks ahead of the results after the bell, mcdonald's hitting a new all-time high for the tenth day in a row and first republic down 90%. are the regionals still a red flag for investors that's in earnings exchange next

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♪ ♪ >> welcome back. we've got the busiest day of earnings on deck this week in today's earnings exchange let's dig in to results of first republic later on and mcdonald's as well. we'll start with coke's beat on the top and bottom line this morning. the shares are flat paring gains from earlier on. the company benefitted from an 11% rise in prices and while they're away from home sales in the u.s. were flat and the international performance is up 10% in asia pack here's what ceo james quincy told us earlier. >> we have the pricing and we had volume volumes were very robust

latin america, e memerging mark like india and the consumer were still resilient and growing. even here in the u.s. we were able to balance out and get a pretty strong result >> that said, like procter & gamble last week, coke playing it safe and only reaffirming their full-year guidance despite that beat and it's buying up the bottlers and joining me now is bank of america brian stillane welcome. >> hi. thank you. it's amazing stats the bottlers have outperformed by 38% over the past 12 months, is that right? >> yeah. that's right that's right you know, i think it's a couple of story, right? one is midcap versus large cap and one of the things that we've seen in this market especially this year, year to date and small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large caps and the bottlers are a way to get exposure and the other thing i think that's a direct leverage, right? two of the real big themes in

the marks has been both volume recovery stories and margin recovery stories the bottlers, more directly, you know, connected to that given that they've got that point of contact with the retailers and with the consumers so we think it fits two themes so far year to date. one is small and mid-cap and they're volume recovery. >> why should we expect their gains to continue and not see a reversal maybe of, hey, let me fly to safety with coke itself or pepsi itself, larger cap maybe more defensive and weakening macro. >> yeah. that's a great question. so look at coca-cola, european partners and the symbol ctep and they'll report earnings tomorrow morning and western europe and australia, new zealand are their territories and if you look at coke's result today they talked about strength and western europe they talked about strength in australia specifically, so

again, it gives you ccp gives you exposure to the parts of coke's results that were very strong another one i would call out is coca-cola, and it's covered by my peer in europe under andrea, same idea. their european business up pretty strongly, we think and even if you look at coke's results ex-russia which was a drag and the prior year comp talkeded about that europe reit was strong and we think they're two examples of stocks where you got exposure not just to the themes they called out and they're doing pretty well. >> and quick final comment and we have a list here and coke itself mentioned how it's some of the plant-based and newer products are doing better whereas traditional volumes are weaker sports in general so what other kind of macro trends do you see here and what do you think about monster if you cover that one >> yeah.

sure peak from my team covers monster and we can cover two things from a macro perspective. one is lower calories and zero sugar. you've seen this with coke, pepsi and dr pepper and the performance of the zero sugar products and they taste better than they have historically and address the need for lower calories and we're definitely seeing great performance from zero sugar products in general, and as we kind of look at hydration, you know, smartwater for instance for coke performing very well and there's definitely more diversity in the product portfolio. quickly, on monster. monster will fit at some point the bill of being a margin recovery story and they've absorbed a lot of inflation over the last two years we think it's still a little bit early, but i think as we kind of move through later this year and if that does emerge, that should be a real catalyst for monster as we go forward >> starting to outperform year to date. >> the last name is so apropos

thank you for your time today. >> brian stelane for bank of america. first republic and the first reporting after the bell this do 84% since svb's collapse and they're higher significantly, up 10% and western alliance saw it last week dom chu, let's get a preview here if you don't mind >> this is a big deal and you can argue this is the most important regional bank of the entire season because first republic has been at the epicenter of all of these west coast regional banks in the wake of silicon valley bank's collapse there will be a lot of attention paid to the top and bottom line results and mostly as we learn from western alliance because of the deposit levels that we've seen and 85 cents a share is the expectation and it will be the deposit numbers that get a lot more attention they ended last year at $176 billion. the expectation right now from analysts is $145 billion quarter

end deposits from that first quarter that we were seeing right now. so that's going to be key. any deposit update to the first couple, two or three weeks of this current month and quarter kind of what western alliance did could go a long way to shoring up investor confidence kelly, i mentioned at the top of the show, this is an earnings report that there will be fireworks associateded with it because the options market is an up or down move of roughly 26% for this stock on the heels of earnings so you've got to watch a lot of things and watch deposits and one more thing to keep an eye on, kelly. non-interest income. will they be able to show that they can still do business outside of their lending and borrowing days and financial advisors and wealth management and that will be key >> a brave woman joins me now stepping in front of the 26% volatility and shelby mcfadden from the asset school of

management shelby, give us a trade here >> with first republic it will be a big old wage day and will there be outflows and is management getting a hold on their liquidity situation? are shareholders and depositors feeling reassured about their investment in this bank? there are implicit and exquisite costs beyond the fdiv limits and those implicit costs start to feel less heavy when depositors feel like they're getting pushed out because they don't have that trust. the upcoming earnings are not only going to tell a big story for shareholders, but it's going to then also influence the state of deposits going forward. investors aren't just looking for more yield they're looking to make sure that their deposits are safe in a way that maybe they weren't thinking six to eight months ago. >> wait and see is very wise

10% up into the print, too >> don and shelby stick around and we'll talk mcdonald's before we go. they've beaten out of 15 out of the past 20 reports and shares is are hitting new highs day after day. shelby, before that, kate rogers, please are expectations too high, kate? what are people looking for here investors and analysts are expressing con fidness they're leading up into earnings with a lot of confidence in mcdonald's ability to continue to perform in this environment we're looking at same-store sales and this will be key and projectioned to be 0.9% and we'll have an eye out to see if offerings like the cardi b and offset will help boost sales this quarter as we've seen in the past next up is mcdonald's is benefiting from any trade down as consumers start to feel higher prices weigh on them both at grocery stores and other restaurants and mcdonald's could see more business as a result of

that and if price hikes are continuing and what traffic has looked like so far this spring are people coming in and are they spending more or less coming in and how sensitive are consumers to price right now those are the key items i'm watching for >> did coke tell us and did they say how they did it? what would you do with the stock? >> you know, what i'm thinking about mcdonald's as a consumer play, it's not necessarily my preference i'm more of a value oriented cost advantage company when thinking about the consumer, however i do think investors are jazzed about the potential cost advantages that they've been able to drum up and the top line growth potential as part of the trade down and the increased focus trying to deliver not only value, but quality and experience, because if you're going to try and capture a little bit of mid-market as the wallet share is narrowing and you're going to have to deliver on the luxury feel, right? i think that mcdonald's is also

going to tell us a lot about cost inflation when it comes to commodities and labor. there's a big story to tell with one stock coming up. >> i was at a burger king yesterday or the day before, and one sandwich and not even a meal was $8.99. i don't know how much room, and whatever that means for mcdonald's, we appreciate. shelby mcfadden. the ceo will discuss these reports on "squawk on the street" at 10:00 a.m. eastern. wllt miss it. >>e' talk a quick break. coming up, one more high school's big fight for financial literacy "the exchange" is back in a couple awing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns...

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states is vermont. that's where cnbc senior personal finance correspondent sharon epperson went to look at one teacher's fight for financial education. wow. >> it is a wow when i went there last week and spent a morning with an inspiring and devoted teacher, i found out she's on a mission her high school has about 200 students 20 countries speaking 20 difrj languages and she's ready to teach personal finance to every one of them >> student at wanuski high school are required to take a course to learn about money management before they graduate. >> how to build your credit. >> applying for college and loans. >> how to write a resume and cover letter >> you can have fun with that. >> courtney is teaching them about earnings, savings and spending. >> you'll want to buy the thingious you want and how long you have to work to pay for those things. >> key steps and budgeting for what they'll need for their first apartment. >> you'll have to buy a

mattress, too. >> a bill to make a semester course, a graduation requirement at all public high schools in vermont has stalled in the state house. >> you've been advocating for personal finance to be a class that all high school students have to take before getting to graduate >> every single day in my class students are engaged and they're asking questions and they're bringing this information home and they're applying it to their own lives and they report to me that they're making better financial decisions because of it >> research shows students are not alone. professor carly urban has studied the outcomes >> when personal finance is required in high school you see improvements in credit scores. you see reductions in delinquency rates and fewer payday borrowing choices you see less reliance on credit cards. >> in eight state, all high school students are required to take a semester-long personal finance course before graduation and ten states are in the process of implementing that

requirement. >> after taking this class it has helped me to start saving my money and to start investing right now. >> students in wanuski say everyone can benefit from a financial literacy class do you see yourselves as advocates for personal finance now? >> yeah. >> i would say so. >> it's one of the few classes that no matter what you're going to do, it can apply to your life in some sort of aspect >> and it can help to improve your financial well-being, too many polls show that popular support for financial education definitely exists, but many students may not have access to personal finance classes it may be due it budget constraints or other curricular demands and many are looking for free resources and cnbc has them for teachers, students and for everyone to learn more about budgeting, saving and investing including a free eight-week newsletter and sign up for the newsletter at cnbc.com/money101

or use the qr code on your screen. >> i was thinking about the robinhood and the traderers fekt and the high school trading stocks and even there, that's just one aspect of personal finance. a lot of of this is broad based and credit story and i don't know if they get into that >> they absolutely get into credit scores and that's important to build credit and they know how important it is. they don't have one yet and they want their patients to have a better credit score as they're looking toward krej and toward other things after high school that was definitely a topic that was of interest to them and it is important to learn about investing on and you have to know how to manage money day to day or maybe even first so you know you have the disposal being after you've paid your bills. >> did they surprise you with anything in terms of the finances they were going

what surprised mes the lesson you have to learn, how do i pay for my first apartment and how many hours does it take me to work to be able to afford the mattress, the bed frame and the microwave because i want the top of the line. >> right >> they were gadget or thing it was interesting to see them work that out and figure out how much money after tax income because they factored that in too which people forget about, how much then is it going to cost them to buy what they want for their first apartment. that was an excellent lesson. >> so simple and powerful. >> so important. >> thanks so much. we appreciate it. >> sure. >> still ahead here after a break, lmvh hitting a market cap milestone as the first european company to reach a half trillion dollars. shares up are 30% so f ts arhi year one technician says it's time to take profits we'll check the charts next. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected

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welcome back to "the exchange." the s&p 500 pretty impressive up 8% this year but european stocks are up more. the stock 600 up more than 6% and the luxury sector has been crushing it, hermess, lmvh 33%,

richmont up 26% and lmvh the first european company to surpass half a trillion dollars in market cap. if you've combined it with hermess, the share equals berkshire's. one technician says now is the time to take profits after lmvh's big run joining me carter worth, ceo of worth charting with our own robert frank, and carter, before we get to the charts, robert, let's look at how we got here. and by the way, we've now seen, you know, carrier bidding for a german company and european bottlers are doing so well there seems to be a european strength. >> highly concentrated on those top luxury brands, especially lmvh a company whose stock is up by a third this year up 70% since september of last year most is the china reopening but the secret to success for lmvh is its diversification, not just the 75 brands that it owns, 75 now from sephora to dom to fendi

to louis viceeton to dior, but china is kicking in and that's the reverse of what we've seen the past two years we could see a slowdown this year from the incredible growth we had in 2021 and 2022, but if anyone owns the space and is going to be the most stable it's going to be lmvh. >> and yet, carter, you think the trade has gotten a little ahead of itself? >> remember, it's -- and it's also others, ferrari, other luxury goods if you look at it compared to maybe some comparables like estee lauder which has kept pace with these until of late or loreal, these two, lmvh and hermess are unto themselves it's about sequencing. at some point the day-to-day, week over week angle of the line is too steep, as things can get overdone to the downside so bad it's good, of course you can

have the reciprocal. who is the incremental buyer er analyst has raised their price target take some money off. >> it would be like at what point do you compare them to nvidia, when should you have not bought nvidia, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 at some point the people who have a proven track record have a proven track record. >> carter is a great chartist and people have been calling for a declining growth for over a year expecting the recession at the high end to happen, and it hasn't happened. those folks at the high end in the u.s. or overseas are the least impacted by inflation. that spending has not slowed down we're seeing it with watches and art and high-end real estate so if you look at the margins and the growth they've doubled what the analysts expected in the most recent quarter. they were expecting 8% and got 17. >> yet we saw the french storming their headquarters after the strong report.

i take your point. when we can't find anything bad to say about it, that's -- we often have turning points like that why did you compare them to berkshire? i loved that. >> sure. that was fun so the report was done, obviously, all sunday and then it was kind of nice to have these headlines hit lmvh has crossed the $500 billion per chance, if you plot these two stocks as a basket, as an equal weight basket, while they're correlated, you can look at them relative to other assets, not only to the stock 600, but their compared chance is almost identical to berkshire. we did a poll for clients and individuals, which would you rather, as an investment between now and year end, overwhelmingly berkshire. probably valuation wise because people know, right oen a price o sales ratio, berkshire at 24, versus 38 or it's just people

looking at the chart saying it's great, i love it, i'm in for ten years but day to day i should reduce, trim, hedge, do something. >> i got bad news, that's your buyers if everybody -- if your own polls would rather own berkshire, lmvh may have - >> we shall see. >> thanks for your time today. that does it for "the exchange." tyler is busy getting ready for "power lunch" and i will see him and you on the other side of this bakre autonomous vacuums work continuously around the house, but when your team has to work seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. responsive collaboration tools give your team effortless connectivity to stay focused wherever they work. fetch. lenovo makes seamless productivity possible. cdw makes it powerful.

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rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen glad you could join us on a busy monday it's a big week for the markets, a third of the s&p 500, half of the dow, report their profits for the first quarter. google, microsoft, meta, amazon, will this earnings parade shake up an