properties between six underground, red notice and everything else coming out i don't know >> this proves in the stock draft, you have to hit a home run. >> he hit a home run for sure with netflix and countered anything that would have happened anywhere else >> good to see you >> good to see you >> thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner we are live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. we begin with the ongoing tense standoff between bulls and bears. the indexes continue to coil more tightly ahead of crucial tech news and earnings the s&p 500 almost on the flat line for the day one bright spot is first republic shares, they're up 8% on the day, which does lead us to our talk of the tape. a bellwether of regional bank stress first republic set to report

results after the close after investors see clues on deposit flight and a possible credit crunch to come joining us now is red bush analyst david sheverini. what will we most be looking for here the stock up perhaps because nobody is anticipating any unexpected blowups we did have a lot of other regionals report so far not a lot of signs of intensifying stress. >> yeah, we are cautious on the name but i would say bulls are expecting results to be less bad than feared. now, we're expecting deposits could be down as much as 75 billion on a gap basis consensus is calling for 40 billion. what i think is also driving the stock today is we saw another bank that was kind of teetering after svb went down, western alliance did rally hard after their results were better than feared and the bulls are hoping

for a repeat here. that's propelling the stock up today. >> bigger picture, we talk about the stock being upward, this was a $140 stock a couple monthst ago. it's not like it changed the overall assessment of the market and what the business will be worth long-term, but where does this leave the bank? do they have enough liquidity for now? do you feel they can sort of limp along without raising more capital? the big unrealized losses remain the overhang >> you hit the nail on the head. they do have enough liquidity to get through. as long as they don't realize the unrealized losses, they have enough capital to maintain their regulatory capital ratio the company does have some runway here to survive now, the issue is at what earnings power will the company be running at? when we look at their loan

portfolio it's yielding 3.5% on their website they're offering cds close to 5% that will lead to, based on the current portfolio, a negative spread but at best a narrow spread for new loans they're making to add on to that, the company has a junk rating from s&p and moody's. that will put additional funding pressure going forward they have a lot of wood to chop, but people are looking at the tangible book value being $74. even if they run at losses for a number of years, as long as that tbv on a gaap basis stays elevated relative to where the stock is trading, that's what is giving the bulls some strength here >> it's a tough bull case to say tangible book value won't crash

that quickly what about across your coverage universes. is the market in general correct in believing that the most -- most of the impact has been recognized in a handful of institutions that really suffered or do you think there are other shoes to drop or a more broad credit and profit crunch to come >> the acute stress and panic i think is behind us looking at all the banks that reported last week, generally the theme was less bad than feared with that said, challenges remain for the group, deposit competition is intensifying. loan growth guidance was reduced. that interest margin guidance, that was lowered credit quality is a very big concern here in the most recent quarter, credit quality just fine but when we look out 12 to 18 months and there's been a lot of discussion around commercial real estate and office properties, that will come home to roost the next 12, 18 months.

on the capital front, people are worried about regulatory capital coming down. potentially raising more capital and regulators putting more stringent standards in place a lot to be concerned about with the banks. the near-term acute panic is behind us. >> all right i guess that's a bit of a silver lining david, appreciate the time thank you very much. >> thank you let's bring in adam parker, research founder and ceo, he's a cnbc contributor, along with liz young, sofi's head of investment strategy i guess the banking crisis that didn't fully happen is one reason that the stock market has been able to hang in the way it has. you hear a lot of folks, maybe a little confused about why we're trading at these levels. adam, in terms of it seems like we're all clenching up ahead of a recession, it seems line earnings have not been great, yet the fed will pause but is it for the right reason

what's your tick on whether the market is whistling past the graveyard or have they right >> there's three or four reasons that the market has it right the fed for sure is getting more dovish, that has driven multiple expansion in the growth universe the second is also legitimate, the probability of a bad scenario with really bad earnings is probably less likely now than at the beginning of the year if you think of the market as a possible group of outcomes, you sign probability to each one, maybe system of that economic data has been stable or not fallen off the third reason which you wrote about today is maybe ai a little bit. that actually impacting stocks more than people think i don't know if it's 10 years or 20 years, 20% or 50%, a lot of human behavior will be commoditized by ai and there will be massive investment implications you can look at nvidia and say it's up too much, but maybe it's

really cheap on a 5 or 10-year view we created an ai basket by doing language processing. we found these things outperform growth there's something there and something real it's not all speculative fraud i think there's some real reasons that the markets are up. i still think the balance and the risk/reward is at best 10% up and 10% down because you do have, i think, a higher probability of an eroding economy and earnings than you do improving. >> liz, it gets us back to what was priced in with last year's decline, what's still yet to be recognized and are we benefiting from the fact that we have been for some time anticipating, you know, the recession to kick in or anticipating some of the bad stuff and at least it's not yet happened >> forever it feels like we've been anticipating. everybody is crying wolf, self inc included, and no wolves are spotted. we're in this waiting game to adam's point, if we look out

5 to 10 years, you won't find somebody who says stocks are a bad buy over a long-term period. they're always a good buy over a long-term period what the market continues to struggle with is in the near-term, in the next three to six months, we won't know what will happen. to me, we lose another bull every day because it's looking more and more likely that things are tightening up. i think the headlines and this is what the guests talked about at the top of the show, the headlines about deposit flight and the things we heard about in march probably are behind us from the depth of that crisis, so to speak. now they become what's the availability of credit what's the availability for small businesses we heard a lot about less being available for small businesses if we're looking for something to fuel economic growth for the rest of this year, i would argue we're running out of spots to find it. >> i agree i think the run on the bank acute stuff might be over as he alluded to the two clear negatives are,

one, long growth slowing and it will be lower, whether it's in real estate or cni whatever your economic outlook was before sev, it has to be lower now, apple for apple people are trying to get non-recourse loans in construction, no regional bank will give them one loan growth will slow the economy. and we all know the duration now. we know the mismatch on the balance sheets, but we don't know -- there hasn't been enough discovery yet in the private credit on the bank balance sheets it asymmetrically skewing negative. i think you're looking at it saying i don't know if these things are cheap or not. they could still be expensive. i don't want to say -- i painted you a picture for why the market is up, but i think the balance is at best kind of risk/reward flat if not negative you will always say you're

bullish on a 3, 5, 10, because equities on most 3, 5, and 10s have been rolling. >> especially when they've been flat for the last two years. if october is the low, one reason there's hesitancy to say that was clearly a bear market low, they didn't seem priced for stupendous returns better but not great you can have it both ways and say october was low, in that case maybe we're not in for the strongest bull market or we have to get back and refresh the valuation case by going lower. >> it was long said and believed that purgatory is the worst place to be. a sideways market is difficult for anyone to make money in, if you're a bull or a bear, stocks and bonds. this is frustrating for most investors. that october low, we got down to 15.3 times forward earnings. that's typically higher than what you see in a bear market or in a recessionary correction

i think that's part of the argument, maybe that wasn't it the other part of the argument is from peak to trough, it was down 25%, 26%, also pretty mild in the realm of resercessionary draw downs the thinking was we'll have a slowdown in growth, contraction but maybe not a classic recession contraction. now this year we raised rates 500 basis points in 12 months. we have every ini didicator screaming something is coming. now people are getting on that side of, well, what if it does happen, maybe 25% peak to trough wasn't enough. i don't know maybe it was the makeup of the index is different today than in the past those are the arguments for the latter >> you also start to hear people citing those recessions in the past where the markets seem to shrug it off whether it was 1990 or even in the late '40s. people are stretching for the

analogs. >> i think within the stock market, liz does a lot of cross-asset bonds. i focus on equities. within the u.s. equities, i can see ways to outperform i can buy cheap cyclicals can no inventory problems, metals, thinks that are not ai-ible will trade at higher premiums over time on the other side, what the market has been clear about, you can buy growth attractive growth is ai, biotech or small cap software where they can get bought at premiums i think the hard part is the 25 times earnings, steady growth, the things everybody wants to buy because the dream is not sexy enough. i have to dream that earnings will pick up a lot of i have to deem the maultiples will expanda lot. or the cyclicals or the balance repair could have tons of free

cash flow. i am not thinking this is a great entry point, i think we're aligned on the macro >> the cyclicals to be clear have overperformed a lot you can't look at the market and say you're ignoring the risk >> demand recession in that part of the market more than other parts. >> adam and liz, thank you very much let's get to our twitter question of the day. we want to know what catalyst will break the market out of its range? big tech earnings, the pce inflation data, the fed meeting next week or something else? we'll share the results later in the hour. up next, your tech earnings rundown. meta, alphabet, amazon and microsoft all gearing up to report results eric jackson is back and breaking down the names he's betting on and where he's seeing risk right now you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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let's check on some top stocks to watch. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> zoom is one of the biggest winners on the nasdaq after the ft reports that microsoft has agreed to stop bundling its teams product with office to avoid antitrust investigation in the eu when you buy future microsoft office products, you can decide if you want to use teams or slack or zoom. that potential market share growth is driving zoom up almost 2.6% higher right now. shares of micron moving in the

opposite direction today after the ft reports that the u.s. is asking samsung not to step in and fill the gap should china ban micron products. china has not done so just yet but just the thought is driving the stock down almost 3% one-third of the s&p and almost half of the dow stocks will report this week. tech earnings kicking off tomorrow with alphabet and microsoft. meta, amazon and intel are later this week. eric jackson joins me now to talk more about it good to see you. you think these companies on net will surprise to the upside. is the market not already leaning in that direction? pretty much all of them have been rediscovered and come up well off the lows this year. >> it's the third earnings season in a row where in general

you hear not just bears but kind of neutral market participants saying that, you know, big tech needs to take earnings expectations down, they're rolling into the teeth of a recession. and that has not been the case for the last two big tech earnings season. we'll see how this one plays out. i'm expecting overall for it to be another positive surprise it's just how well some of these big names are holding in there >> yeah. some of the themes we can pretty much foresee are a continuation of the cross-cutting story most of these companies to one degree or another have been undertaking. do you feel as if that will actually allow estimates to go up are we just going to be able to make up the difference with some of that cost reduction >> yeah. most of the announcements have already happened we might get some more details from the likes of google this week, for example, about just what they're planning on doing or from a meta we might get some

incremental news for example, last week zuckerberg said at a town hall meeting he planned to keep headcount at something like 1% to 2% growth going forward in the future if he says that on the earnings call, kind of validates that statement, that would be incrementally positive news for folks in the investor community. a lot of the stuff has been baked in, but i think people will want to see especially from the cloud players just what kind of deceleration are we seeing from an aws, amazon or from google or from microsoft with azure as well. you know, the rate of desell makes a big difference in terms of the valuation of these stocks is it coming down 2%, 3%, you know, or is it 4%, 5%, more than that so that's going to be the kind of color that people will be looking into >> in terms of microsoft in

particular, there is, of course, the growth rate of the cloud business people will be fixated on, also just the exposure to the broader pc and business software economy where we have seen some concerns about people tightening belts on budgets. do you think there's risk there? are they more or less a battleship that will be there in the end? >> i'm most nervous this week in terms of the players like microsoft and snap with microsoft, it's really that risk of enterprise spend we got the announcement last week from cdw that they had seen sort of a big pullback in enterprise spend microsoft in my view is the most at risk if that carries over to them in terms of what they announce this week they're a great brand, not a

tremendously expensive valuation here if you're looking ahead to 2024 i think they're most at risk of near-term upset in terms of what they might announce for this particular quarter relating to enterprise spend that might surprise the market >> we'll hear a ton about ai, whether we want to or not, whether or not it's a real product that these companies have or not. is that an investable theme or one other thing to get people excited about the franchise. alphabet and meta have the same forward pe right now for the first time in some time, and i just wonder how that is going to fall based on whatever growth themes emerge. >> most of the ai stuff to me is just words more than anything else google could talk to what's

happening with the bard ai, the answer to chatgpt, and you hear some people say that's going to be interesting it's not really going to make a material difference in terms of the financial results they report i think ai matters in the sense that for some of these players including meta and google, their prior investments in ai could turn up this quarter in terms of just increased engagement, increased efficiency that they're showing across different platforms. with meta, we could hear of kind of better returns that they're driving and kind of traditional facebook fee or some announcements about what they expect in the second half of the year with reels monetization, which could end up directly tracing back to investments they made in ai several quarters ago. so there's -- it can be very real, but not from a high-level buzzy kind of way.

>> the one we have not talked about, amazon, is actually starting to act better as a stock. it's been outperforming the nasdaq 100 over the last few months kind of quietly because i think a lot of folks soured on the near-term story there. what is your current read on that one with regard to valuation? >> they're coming off two really bad reports. the last two earnings calls. they kind of surprised the market with overinvestment and distribution centers and struggling with theconsumer transitioning in the face of the recession. i think it's unlikely that they're going to have three in a row. you know, this is not a snap-type company. i think chances are better they'll surprise to the upside expectations have been taken down valuations are pretty unheroic here at these levels for amazon. i think they're one to watch

definitely the aws story of cloud deceleration is important. and are they -- where are they exactly in terms of the rate of decel? do they guide to a bottoming in deceleration for aws later this year with talk about a resumption of acceleration in cloud growth if they speak to that on the call that will be a surprise and would definitely help the stock here i like it a lot going into earnings this week >> all right we'll be watching out for all of it appreciate you setting it up for us thanks >> thank you up next. forecasting the market's next move bank of america's chris hizzy is drilling down where he is seeking risks and where he sees safety and what c3.ai means for the broader ai space "closing bell" will be right back

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welcome back to "closing bell." stocks struggling for direction. the index is just barely above the flat line right now ahead of a blockbuster week of earnings let's break down the markets with chris hyzy. you were saying you love these grinding sideways market this seems to breed more frustration than anything else >> sometimes boredom is good it buys investors some more time the disconnect between the front end of the curve and the rest of the curve and then the equity markets is really wide you see these stories like the bear will build the stories here, the bulls there. and in the middle is a narrow range we've had, particularly this month, probably the thinnest range now going back quite a few years. >> yeah. i've seen some work on that last week there were three days when the

s&p was up -- or moved less than 0.1%, which only happened like three times in the last five or so years actually, after it was not disastrous it's not necessarily the calm before the storm which camp do you find more persuasive now tactically in terms of the bullish case or the bear >> it seems like the bear camp is more persuasive because we have debt ceiling negotiations going on all of the different triggers lined up for a so-called recession. on the flip side you have to ask yourself did the pandemic distort a lot? of course it did did it distort the numbers you would normally see of course it did is it giving people time with more excess savings? yes. how do you balance that equation with the fact that you're still seeing that all the different triggers you normally look at are signaling a recession? i just simply say maybe it's different this time. but maybe collectively it's a rolling recession. and you don't get this massive system-wide one. it's more shallow than people think.

earnings can recover next week both sides of the fence are there. >> right if you get believe that earnings could recover next year, june is, you know, right around the corner that's when people start theoretically pricing off of -- off of the following year's earnings you mentioned you got some decent yields at the frond end of the curve so you can stay in shorter-term fixed income or cash and sort of get paid to wait and figure out what's next. on the other hand, it seems like in january when people first started to take notice that we got 4%, 5%, it's safe yield, people got really hopped up on it what stocks did was go up% in three months >> i think it was the anticipation that that was the peak and you would see the yields come down in '22, everybody was focused on the discount rate going up, multiples should be coming down. ultimately cash flows if they're less, less volume, less pricing

power, ultimately less cash flows and higher yields leads to lower valuation. that was '22 if you unwind some of that, that's the bigger move in growth >> they have rebuilt that premium for sure what about the rest of the world? the bulls will say japan, europe, also acting well it's not just a u.s. story >> a little bit of individual stories there. i would point out this, which we just ran today -- the actual ten-year yield in most developed markets, the big six, the big seven is far and away -- not far and away but lower than the actual dividend yield of that index, except for the u.s. and france the u.s., as we all know, 3.5% ten-year yield and 1.7% dividend yield, you would say to yourself, wow, i understand. people are looking for yield relative to the fixed income in their market that makes sense valuation better than the u.s.

always is. but a bit more of a discount the real question is what's the flexibility of their economies as we go into this recession and ultimately come out of it? are they flexible enough and have enough innovation to get them into an earnings growth story? i think that question is out there. >> if you feel as though it's time to maybe wait and see where the opportunities present themselves i know you've been looking at small caps and saying they don't trade as expensively is it time for that yet? >> i think it's closer to year end. we don't like the time, 12 months to 12 months, if you're looking for the trend, it doesn't make sense at this point to begin to overweight small caps considerably. you might want to start legging in it's on our upgrade watch list, so is international and ford you get through the middle of the recession, that's generally when bottoms happen in the higher beta areas. if you want to wait a bit, no big deal at the same time, the index is heavy into regional banks and

small cap index. it has a lid on it from that alone. we want to wait a bit. that would be an area for the next five, six, seven years where that valuation gap should close. >> is the market correct in viewing inflation as last year's problem and it's going to come down fast? it's interesting about that, the market is always correct >> yeah. >> so, it appears so good 50% of the cpi is in a down trend. i would argue that it's about to bet wages and then ultimately real estate and food prices. all of those are showing signs, at least forward looking, that that's coming down it's one of our big surprises over the next 12 months that inflation drops sharper than what consensus is expecting. >> chris, good to talk to you. appreciate it. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is standing by with those

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22 minutes until the closing bell let's get back to kristina

partsinevelos for the key stocks to watch into the close. >> carrier global seeing its shares plunge 7.5% on the "wall street journal" report that it's in talks to acquire a german industrial manufacturer for $10 billion including debt viessmann could help diversify its supply chain. shares of albemarle is rebounds the ceo was on "last call" on friday saying chilean mines would not be affected. sunrun is on the positive list, and enphase has a strong backlog of orders, but not the same kind of love for first solar after citi downgraded the

name citing margin risks and concerns that the inflation reduction act benefits are already priced into the share price. mike >> thank you a string of high-profile departures in the media industry today. let's send it over to julia boorstin for all the details >> busy news day indeed. three major departures of men in top media roles. the latest, warner brothers discovery's cnn announcing it's parting ways with host don lemon who tweeted his frustration about the way he was informed saying he didn't hear directly from management. cnn responded that it did give lemon the opportunity to meet with them. lemon has been criticized for making offensive comments about women and his firing comes after major layoffs and cutbacks at cnn. >> cnn's rival, fox news media, announcing it is parting ways with its long-time host tucker carlson and that his last day

was this past friday shares dropping on news of the loss of what was one of fox's top-rated anchors. he was also one of its most controversial. his departure notably comes after a discrimination lawsuit filed by a producer on carlson's show and fox's settlement with dominion voting systems. after that lawsuit showed how carlson's show spread misinformation >> we have an update on the firing of jeff shell, the ceo of cnbc's parent company, nbcuniversal he was fired just yesterday. cnbc international anchor hadley gamble filed a complaint of sexual harassment and discrimination against shell, according to her attorney. and then in an 8k filing today, nbc's parent company, comcast, saying it retained outside counsel to investigate and that evidence uncovered that corroborated the allegations comcast said this led to shell being terminated with cause.

we've reached out to shell and his representatives but have not heard back back over to you >> thank you very much it is the last chance now to weigh in on the twitter question we ask what catalyst will break the market out of its range, big tech earnings, pce inflation data, the fed meeting next week or other head to@cnbcclosingbell on twitter. we'll bring you the results after this break

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let's get the results of our twitter question we asked what catalyst will break the market out of its range? big tech earnings is the clear winner about 43% of the vote. they start in earnest tomorrow some also writing in the debt ceiling could be a wildcard as well 10% said something else. still ahead, we're minutes away from first republic reporting results. the key themes and metrics every investor needs to hit. that and more when we take you bu the future you imagi. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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♪ we're in the closing bell market zone. mark newton highlights one corner of the market breaking out and what it could mean for the s&p. steve kovac on the big move on c3.ai and dom chu on first republic after it reports after the bell today mark, set the scene for us here with the broader market. you know, been talking about how this is an unimpressive bull market since october or it's a non-scary bear market for the last few months. do we have to make a definition? what's your general take here on the tactical positioning >> markets have been up the last four, five weeks but it doesn't feel that way to a lot of people that's what's important. technology started to wane a bit, that makes the markets seem choppier we haven't had good movement in sectors like health care, utilities, the rotation has

gotten a lot more defensive in the last month at a time when sentiment has gotten more optimistic april tends to be one of the best months of the year. i still think trends are positive in the near-term. as we go into may, i think there's a heightened chance that we could finally see the much awaited correction that i think a lot of people are waiting on it should prove short-lived, there are warning signs creeping up on the horizon. >> if that's the case, you mentioned the out performance showing up in the more traditional defensive sectors. is it time to follow on and participate in those moves at this point in any of those that you saw? we have some good earnings in the last several trading days since some of the big consumer trading stocks for example >> i like health care as the best of any of the defensive sectors. there are parts of health care that are more risk on like biotechnology and medical devices. equal weighted health care is on the verge of breaking out of a pattern versus the equal

weighted s&p going back over the last couple of years this is not immediately evident when you look at charts of xlv, but it highlights the movement in some sub sectors when you look at a nonmarket weighted type of etf and equal weighted a lot of pharma stocks, medical devices we've seen some good movement in stocks like medtronic, of course, boston scientific that's an excellent area to position in. really the pharmaceutical area also i think is phenomenal it makes sense to me tech has had this big runup. there's no saying that tech can't work for the year, but certainly it makes sense to consider diversification at this stage of the rally given what we've seen >> i wonder about coca-cola after reporting decent earnings, there was an initial positive response then the stock has backed off during the day today and it's bumping up against what's been the upper end of a trading range. how would you assess that one? >> well, coke, if you look at it over the last few years, it has broken out of a lengthy down

trend. it is one of my favorite consumer staple stocks right now. i do like the stock. i think it likely moves back to all-time highs it's right to favor coke technically. i heard a lot of the fundamental reports have been quite positive technicals are starting to mirror the fundamental names and act very well. >> you mentioned -- the banking sector has been a bit of an albatross on this market it creates ammo for bulls and bears. you could say if you're bearish, there's no real sustainable rally has tended to continue if the banks are outright weak as they have been over the last couple of months on the other hand, the tape has managed to hold together even with that drag from the banks. is there opportunity and bottom fishing there or would you say this is a broken sector for now? >> in an intermediate term basis, i would say it's broken i say there are excellent

large-cap banks that rebounded quite sharply that look attractive a lot of those like the jpmorgans, citibanks of the world have rebounded the regional bank area is trying to stabilize but it hasn't been convincing to me yet that this is a go-to area for immediate term and long investors. in terms of a possible further pullback into may, as you say, maybe we're setting up for it, what would be an acceptable level of a pullback from here? since october, there have been a couple of retreats in the s&p 500 that did not really wipe out all the previous rallies i'm wondering how we would kind of frame out what a pullback might look like. >> yeah. we would need to get down under 3,940 in the s&p cash index. that would be a concern that we could see further weakness 3,800 is the largest level for

intermediate term investors. that cannot be broken without thinking trends are turning more bearish. i don't suspect that needs to happen, but a move down to 3,940 or 4,000 is a possibility in the month of may as of yet, we don't have sufficient science to say that's under way just yet we could be up to 4,200 if not above that before we see a minimal pullback >> that would be a 4%, 5% drop from here even if we did get it. finally, mark, a lot of folks have been alarmed at how calm the market has been and the fact that the volatility index is in the 16s. seeing that as a warning sign as opposed to a reflection, i guess of just a steadier market, how do you read it >> well, volatility never works as people expect the vix will trend slower before going higher the vix truly reacts when you have unexpected news such as the banking crisis, that can cause a

big spike. i view volatility and the vix pulling back further, probably 15.5 to 16.5, that will set up those to buy volatility after this big move. it's been cut almost in half over the last month and a half there could be opportunities for those. you know, we're sort of grinding sideways and really waiting for some tech earnings the fed's end game for rate hikes and how that materializes -- i see a lot of larger negativity, but it's in the short-term where sentiment has gotten a bit more optimistic when you look at fear and greed, ai, some of these investors intelligence polls that make me a little bit concerned that they may revert back to seasonal tendencies >> has been a bit of a chase the last few weeks mark, great to talk to you thank you very much. >> thanks, mike. >> let's get to steve kovac on a

move down on c3.ai shares. shares down on a downgrade from wolf research. just questioning how lucrative this supposed pure play in ai will be in the near-term >> yeah. look, this downgrade is largely on because they've been talking to cios, the folks at wolf research, they see i.t. spend falling off later in the year. that will be a big theme coming up throughout tech earnings this week, how resilient is this ai spend? i know earlier in the show you were talking about some of the slowdown in cloud growth among the tech giants. we'll see the same thing on the software side for companies like c3.ai as well. wolf is more specific, they're saying revenue growth will be 10%, 11% most of the street thinks 20%. the company itself used to think it would be 30% growth they had another deal that they kind of renegotiated and that changed the revenue outlook for the rest of the year that's what is dragging shares down now this was -- this stock was up

70% before today all on that ai hype. >> it is still up almost 60% year to date it's basically a ticker symbol >> it says ai at the end and people buy it. >> we'll see how much more of movement there might be in that one. steve, thank you very much dom chu on first republic. what will we be combing through this one to look for in terms of not just about this institution but regional banks in general. >> it's the same ones that we've looked at for every one of these regional banks this is probably the most important regional bank earnings report, the one that -- the main event, so to speak first republic, the one who lost 90% of its value over the last year tied to the failure of silicon valley bank. earnings per share expected to come in 85 cents revenue a hair under $1.5 billion. the metric everyone will want to pay attention to is the deposit number we expect deposits to go lower there's no real dispute about

that how much lower is what we want to see and feel out. at the end of last year, december of last year, the deposit base was $176 billion at first republic the average analyst estimate right now has it falling to around $145 billion at the end of march, the end of the first quarter. much like western alliance, which we could view as maybe a blueprint for this particular one, western alliance came out and said in the first couple of weeks of this new quarter and month they saw deposit inflows to the tune of a couple billion dollars. if something like that were to happen at first republic, that could go a long way to stabilize a stock that has been very hard hit in this whole process and to your point, this is by far and away the best performing stock in the s&p today you get a sense that traders are positioning a little bit about trying to close out shorts heading into a print that could be very volatile >> absolutely. we did see western alliance pop on its not so bad results last week we'll be watching that, dom. thank you very much.

as we get ready to close, another steady performance by the s&p 00 we're holding in that 4,137 range. more stocks up and down on the new york stock exchange. i mentioned a little bit of a change the nasdaq down about a quarter of a percent that's going to do it for "closing bell. let's move into "overtime" with morgan brennan and jon fortt >> see you in a bit. the score card on wall street, welcome to "closing bell: overtime," i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. coming up, the earnings report wall street has been waiting for. first republic numbers are due at any moment. we'll bring you those results, instant analysis as soon as they cross. while we wait for those earnings to come through, let's get to today's action. joining us are warren from 314 research and emily hill from